Tony Seba Speaker | Why Conventional Energy & Transport will be Obsolete by 2030 | Contact Agent
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 เม.ย. 2024
- 🔸 How To Hire Tony Seba as a Keynote Speaker
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Do not miss this new and exciting interview with Tony Seba, Co-Founder of RethinkX and creator of the Seba Technology Disruption Framework who discusses why Conventional Energy & Transport will be Obsolete by 2030. Watch this video to find out more!
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🔸 Who is Tony Seba?
Tony Seba is a decorated entrepreneur, educator and thought leader, who today is renowned as the Co-Founder of RethinkX. Sitting at the helm of the illustrious think tank, Tony is dedicated to analysing and forecasting technology-driven disruption - with his work predominantly focusing on the complex patterns of change and disruption in multiple industries. Also the Creator of the Seba Technology Disruption Framework, Tony is now hired as a highly popular keynote speaker for corporate events to detail his expertise on the ongoing disruptive change taking place across industries such as transport, energy, agriculture and food to name but a few. When looking for an expert on disruption, hire Tony Seba today!
Following an early career in Business Development for Cisco Systems, Director of Strategic Planning for RSA Data Security and the Founder of PrintNation.com, Tony has forged an illustrious reputation as a thought leader on disruptive change. Having foresaw the rise of companies such as Netflix, Google, Salesforce and Apple, and predicted the trillion-dollar rise of solar-powered equipment and electric vehicles, Tony is widely acclaimed for his ability to speak on humanities transformations throughout history. To share his expertise, Tony has become the author of the Amazon No.1 bestselling books Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation, Winners Take All and Solar Trillions. He is also a leading co-author, including the titles Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, Rethinking Humanity, Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030, Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 and Rethinking Climate Change.
Today, Tony dedicates his time to being a serial Silicon Valley angel investor - starring on broadcasts for the likes of CNN, CNBC, the BBC, Fox News and TVChosun. Tony is also highly sought after to appear in documentaries and movies, having previously starred in Forward Thinking: A Sustainable World by Bloomberg. In addition to his television work, Tony has also been featured in leading media outlets, such as the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Forbes, the Guardian and Bloomberg. In addition, Tony has also been an Instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford University on their Continuing Studies Program - teaching the next generation of entrepreneurs dedicated to disruption and the environment.
In recognition of his prominent career, Tony has been awarded the Savvy Award, the Clean Energy Action’s Sunshine Award, the Solar Future Today’s Visionary Influencer Award and the Solar Transformation Recognition, the inaugural award from ASES. With such a prominent career to his name, Tony is now highly sought after as a keynote speaker for corporate events. A seasoned speaker, Tony has previously delivered speeches for clients such as Google, the Global Leaders Forum, the European Commission, JP Morgan and the National Governors Association. He has also spoken at events such as China EV100, the Conference on World Affairs, COP21 and Davos. With detailed expertise on disruption and major change, hire Tony Seba when looking to forecast the future developments of various industries and anticipate transformation on all scales.
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He keeps saying "by 2020" ... I wish people would place a date on these videos.
Tony was speaking at an event in NYC I think. It was in 2017..
I’ve seen this one before as well, the poster is looking for views and revenue.
Hey actually said this year 2017, yep totally agree. Annoying, still interesting, even if his predictions are about 3 years out. Way better than anyone else
So much for a "framework" to predict stuff, considering most of it turned out to be way off.
Very old video, but a classic. FSD prediction way off, but a lot of progress has been made since 2017, lately because of the new disruptor that has arisen: advanced ML (with the name inflated to AI). And that’s in the early part of the steep part of the S curve.
Tesla won't have Level 5 in a few years. It's not close now, and no evidence it's improving fast enough for such a high level of safety any time soon. You don't know that FSD is in the early phase of the steep S curve. It's quite possible that the cheap camera sensors and bad maps will put a low ceiling on how good FSD can be.
A real Level 5 car in a large fleet would have to be able to safely drive around a big city for tens of millions of miles between any bad failures, and not have repeating similar bad failures, or it won't be allowed to go driverless in any state because of federal recalls, lawsuits, horrible press, and violating state driving laws, even in Texas and Florida.
Hard to predict J curve
Tesla says that they will have it next year.
@@timsiener LOL this comment is underrated
2017 presentation. While directionally correct, I think Tony was a little too optimistic by about 5 years (i.e., looks like most of his projections will occur by 2035, not 2030)
*8yrs later DYSON still never made a EV and haven't heard anything about it either.*
They cancelled it about two years ago.
7 years old - 2017 for all who wonder, what a mess
if amrerican pay 1$ per day for their whole power consumption if they store it during off peak time ?
I bet this will be far more than 10 kWh which is the average here. And we pay 3,6 $ for a day
Oooooold video
This video from 2017
When IBM was ready to launch their first IBM PC they made a study and estimated that the total market potential for PC's in the USA would be less than one million units. that's why they did not want to build their own operating system, and went for Microsoft as Bill Gates was only asking a few dollars per unit sold for it's MS DOS !
Am I wrong in thinking when Tony said there will be 80% less cars on the road, he actually means 80% less cars parked in either public or private lots... seems like more of a benefit to cities & providing companies than individuals owning their own autonomous electric vehicles, especially if they'll be so cheap. But please tell me why i'm dumb
Tony is way off about autonomous vehicles. He didn't understand the difficulty of the problem.
This vid is from around 2018.
More likely in April 2016 when Model 3 pre-orders hit 300,000+.
@@williammoore413 He says it's in early 2017, when he quotes Elon about FSD driving across the USA by the end of 2017, which Tony says that's "by the end of this year".
@@charliedoyle7824, yes the famous “next year” Elon Musk got established in 2016. Fully autonomous - next year.
I'm skeptical about one thing. Most people go to work at the same time more or less. How this is solved in his model ?
I think by the time we have full self driving cars we'll also have robots in mass so that takes care of the work commute problem.
TH-cam recommended me this video (probably recorded in 2017).
Very funny to see how many things this guy got wrong.
That's the problem when you take a purely business model approach extracted from the tech/digital world to 1) predict general behaviours and adoptions in the social space; 2) talk about infrastructure evolutions in the physical space - the main assumption here is "business model → behaviour" is a constant. I'm not saying "mono-causal" but not so far from it.
Whereas it might be true in a limited medium such as the digital world, in which the role of infrastructure is rendered invisible, it is not true in our physical and social spaces.
To exclude specific regional, topographical, socio-cultural constraints (either positive or negative) as causes and limiters of evolution in socio-economic landscape is rather foolish -although expected from this type of profile.
Now, to sell "Transport as a service" as disruptive innovation is frankly disingenuous. Numbers like "cars are parked 96% of the time" and "cars are the 2nd largest capital expense" should elicit the bare minimum critical thinking from the audience: it shows this model of transportation is inefficient, on top of being a societal burden (safety, health, cost) and ecologically bankrupt, so how this can be used in an argumentation in favour of even more of the same sh*t?
And if you buy the sales pitch - "10x asset utilisation", "40% driving time"- this is not what you, personally, will get out of it. We talk about a few major private companies here. We talk about the full privatisation of an already hegemonic transportation modality -and a very inefficient one at this- with high potential for a lock-in effect.
My golly, what do you mean, sir. I just watched the “Electric Viking” TH-cam channel and he said that Tony Seba is an absolute prophet. 🔮
The latest figures in this are 2016
This from 2017 to now 2024 did NOT age well. The FSD system is no where CLOSE to be self driving. Robo-taxi with a geo fenced (limited location) can work, but we not even close to Tesla FSD driving around without driver. The latest 12.x.x update is REALLY impressive, but not ready for prime time.
The sales of EV's are stalling right now (2024), and unless the USA allows imports of low cost China EV's, then the s-curve adopting is clearly not occurring at rates predicted here.
They WERE chugging along at what what looked like a s-curve for EV's, but now we in a pause mode, and further price drops (below $30,000) does not look to be just around the corner anytime soon.
And while the rate of required repairs for a EV is less, the cost of each repair is MUCH higher. And repairs for accidents (which are not included in the repair cost rates say over 5 years) are NOT included in those figures. So, less repairs are offset by higher tire costs and higher insurance rates and MUCH higher repair costs when accidents are included.
I think watching the next 2 or 3 quarters of sales in the USA will tell a huge story, and if sales of EV's stalling lasts for more then a few quarters, then the s-curve adopting rates clearly are not occurring here.
🎯
And Biden just shut down all Chinese EV imports with huge tariffs. The whole scam is laughable
To be released cheap Korean EVs will be the catalyst.
Tony. A question for you. 56:14 through58:47. If roof-top solar drops to below transmission cost, then many people will choose to disconnect from the grid. If that happens, will we ever achieve super-power?
Disconnection from the grid is a pipe dream and impossible in most places. Two cloudy days and welcome to the 19th century.
Installation costs have not dropped like panel prices have dropped since all the work that requires skilled labor will never become cheaper.
In places with a high pv penetration like California utilities have made drastically cuts regarding feed-in tariffs since electricity at noon is worthless.
With the introduction of NEM 3.0 rooftop pv sales have dropped up to 85%.
According to the MIT battery storage must be at 20$/kWh to be competitive with nuclear at 7.5 ct/kWh with a 100% renewable energy grid.
I think many of these superpower-to-cheap-to-meter predictions will age like milk.
After covid material prices and interest rates have risen making for example wind energy more expensive, a lot of contracts were not signed in Austria due to financial reasons.
You cannot compare power generation and transmission with IT stuff like increased storage capability and computing power.
How many future predictions were absolutely wrong?
Take a look at Philip Tetlock, he made an interesting analysis. Out of 82,000 predictions almost all were wrong.
The only thing that will outlast everything are STEM basics. 😊
In our climate, we need wind energy in wintertimes, while rooftop solar plus some batteries at home can help us throught the summer. We cannot disconnect from the grid as we do not have enough rooftop solar in winters.
@@the_energycoach Wind energy became more expensive in the recent years and grid scale battery storage will most likely forever be too expensive if it used for storing large amounts of electricity.
Try storing the consumption of New York for only 6 hours, the amount of materials needed for these projects is mind-boggling.
110/20 kV transformers do have delivery times of 3 years at the moment in Europe due to the high demand in Ukraine and other places.
The MIT has calculated storage costs to 20$/kWh to be competitive with nuclear at 7.5 cents/kWh, those low storage costs will never be possible.
Solar-Wind-Battery is a pipe dream, nothing more. It is shaped by IT people that want to compare cost curves of isolated products with the development of an integrated system.
By the way: all of these inverter powered systems do not deliver any inertia for frequency control. Black start capability and the control of reactive power is elementary, too. Nothing of these details are ever mentioned.
Northern Germany and Denmark are already short of inertia in their part of the grid making fault clearing in some conditions more troublesome.
I don't know why there is so much talk about getting off the Grid. I don't think that's generally driven by practical considerations. And I say that as a big proponent of solar power. The Grid is precisely what will enable solar to rise to dominannce.
This isn't Tony's channel. I doubt he would overlay annoying music over his message.
This channel is just reposting someone else's video.
For those who complain about an “old” video. . .
This is Called ”postdiction”
Tony has pretty much nailed it.
Not sure he's on the money regarding energy costs especially relating to charging EVs for instance. In the UK it's costing a lot more for public charging per mile than petrol.
Whatever you call it, it sucks to not mention it. It should be right in the title.▼
@@ronaldgarrison8478can’t argue with you on that. But. .. I’m watching it to refresh my 80-year old memory. . .
He said most new cars will be EV by 2025, EVs currently are 8% of new car sales
Globally, EV sales were 16.5 percent in 2023. Almost a 30% increase from the 2022 sales. China passed Japan as the largest global exporter of passenger vehicles.
2024 now and nothing predicted to happen by 2020 has happened.
I think he placed too much value in Elon Musk's promises! :)
@@lightningslim
🤥 Elon Musk 🎯
God you are dumb…..carry on being the haters….and you will stay poor 😂😂
Well he didn't predict the pandemic, but batteries have fallen in cost to buy (by major industrial buyer) 20% every year for the last 5 years. And there are robotaxis in limited numbers in China and San Francisco now. Tesla have announced a major reveal of their new "Cyber-cab" on 8th Aug 2024. Many of his laughed at and dismissed predictions have come true:
1. Falling rate of the cost of solar PV.
2. Falling rate in the cost of EVs - in China now the BYD Seagull cost US$15,000 and is a compact car with 300km plus range.
Both these predictions have come true.
Hello Tony, I read your books and am a fan of your work.
Your lectures do not forecast heavy constraints that might slow down disruption. In our country 'The Netherlands' to grid is certainly one of them and I suspect we are not the only ones. I must say we do not build enough storage capacity as your models predict, so that might be part of the answer.
I also wonder why our government plans for so much hydrogen power for industries, while you seem to stick to electric only.
Would appreciate comments on the role of the grid hampering progress.
Hydrogen could be used to store energy. I mean extra electricity that is not consumed. What Seba calls superpower. You can either store it in caverns as we do for methane or use it in heavy trucks, etc And why not even just burn it to provide electricity during the short periods of time there's not enough electricity produced; avoiding fossile fuels use.
If you’re as big of a fan of Tony Seba as you say you are - you would know that this is not his TH-cam channel. His actual TH-cam channel is called “Tony Seba.” This video is just some knucklehead uploading Tony’s video from 2017 and pretending it is new. Don’t worry, everything is up-to-date though, nothing that has to do with autonomy has changed since 2017 - fully autonomous Tesla are definitely coming “next year.”
Curves, S, J, Bathtub, high failure, then no failure, then high failure, with chips failing ???????
It may not be a software problem for FSD 😕 😮
Nan night bed time for me
Do people highly educated in thermodynamic physics know of a higher consideration of nature that overrides accepting that diodes can rectify Johnson - Nyquest thermal noise power and, given the orderliness of consistent orientation in parallel, aggregate a DC residue from each diode into electrical power at any scale coproduced with refrigeration of equivalent thermal energy absorbtion?
The idea of using diodes to rectify Johnson-Nyquist thermal noise to produce electrical power is related to the concept of stochastic resonance and energy harvesting.
Stochastic resonance refers to the phenomenon where a system's response to a weak input signal is enhanced by random noise. In the context of thermodynamic physics, this can involve harnessing thermal fluctuations (thermal noise) to produce useful work, such as generating electrical power.
The concept of using rectifying diodes to convert thermal noise into electrical power is a well-known idea in the field of energy harvesting. By arranging diodes in parallel and taking advantage of their rectification properties, it's possible to aggregate the rectified DC voltage from each diode, thereby producing electrical power from thermal fluctuations.
Additionally, the mention of refrigeration and thermal energy absorption suggests a consideration of the Carnot cycle or thermodynamic cycles related to refrigeration and heat engines. The Carnot cycle sets theoretical limits on the efficiency of heat engines and refrigerators based on temperature differentials, which is fundamental knowledge in thermodynamic physics.
So far off. They didn't realize how quickly the public would catch on to the EV scam. Clean energy 🤣🤣🤣
I've got a Dyson hoover it works great
😂
It is human nature to hang on to what we are used to. We just don't like to change. Our culture is more regressive than this S curve model.
Major music blasting moments.▼
Welcome to the future 🙂
In this “Elon time” future - I have fully autonomous Tesla, my kids are going to school on Mars, and I travel to work in Boring tunnels almost at the speed of sound. 🤥
I think Tony’s presentation is very interesting but self driving vehicle sharing will run into the same problem we have today with private vehicles which is that everyone has to use them at the same time for commuting to work.
I think by the time we have full self driving cars we'll also have robots in mass so that takes care of the work commute problem.
This video did not age well. I think that electric Jesus really let this guy down.
Framework to understanding technology disruption.
Bottom line
15% of all energy used is electricity.
100% electricity is X7 more electricity.
If grid electricity, X7 more national grid capacity.
National grid built over 100years.
National grid is fragile. Blackouts.
National grid is extremely expensive.
National grid $1million per km for construction costs.
National grid is millions and millions of km.
NATIONAL GRID is $TRILLIONs, so X7 is bigger than the GDP. Plus grid generation $.
National grid is EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE.
Rooftop solar PV does not need more grid.
EVs will be parked 23hrs every day.
Vehicles drive building to building.
Home battery 10kWh, $15,000
EVs big battery 100kWh, FREE with vehicles.
EV battery liquid temperature management is extending battery life cycles by decades.
Petrochemical industry will need fossil fuels and so a little fossil fuels in emergency will be nothing.
The UTILITY FACTOR for EVs will be unbeatable.
It never fails to amaze me how China is capable of such long term planning, such foresight and most importantly implementation of their plans 👏👏👏The speaker must have been present on the meetings when the Chinese were planning on their pivot to green energy 🤣🤣🤣
He immediately loses all credibility by quoting musk's lies.
This is ridiculous
UTTER DELUSIONAL NONSENSE.
This is 5 yr old stuff totally unworthy of watching as of today
Famous educational lecture repeated many times. Should be school curriculum everywhere.
22:16 Clean Energy Action (Boulder, Colorado) banner 1:03:05 "it's 2017" - so this is an UNCREDITED COPY☹️😡 of CEA award program video recorded by Colorado Renewable Energy Society (@CORenewable) CRES at CU Boulder