You guys just toppled the entire real estate industry of Europe, agrar industry, mortgage and loan sector, you name it, and have, as of right now, 280 views. When are people going to listen to this? Thank you so much for sharing If I owned a house in Europe, I'd want to see this!
It will be interesting if the AMOC collapses and Europe starts to cool dramatically (even if global warming lessens the effect) while the global south continuous to warm. At that point the global south will want to use geoengineering to slow down or drop the temperature while Europe definitely don't want to do this because that means it will be getting even colder. This will be a hot bed for a global conflict.
"global warming" was never real. It is the biggest scam in all of time. Seeing as it is down to 5°C here in south england at 05:30 am and that nothing they ever talked about happened, it is obvious.
Is the Northeast part of the US still rising from the last ice sheet (like Norway)? That might offset some of the rising sea level in some places. 44:51 minus 30 Celsius is warmer than minus 30 Fahrenheit.
I saw elsewhere that while Norhtern Europe would cool significantly (ice age level), Sourhtern Europe would become as hot as today's Africa (it's already started). This would create a very large temperature difference between the southern and norhtern part of the continent. No-one knows exactly what this will do in terms of driving storms, but it can't be good.
@9:30 "Model years" or modelled years? Modelled means the duration of the whole experiment... Model years is more vague expression. None of these says anything about what happens inside the modelled years. You may have AMOC collapse in 30 years or 500 years. Because the models are still struggling to explain event the collapse, they are not saying anything what happens afterwards. Ie. 6-10C temperature drop that may come from collapse, means the Greenland is likely not melting anymore. And that means the fresh water flux that caused the collapse does not exist anymore. Also after the collapse temperature difference between ice front and southern ocean will be much higher. And these may trigger AMOC and its thermohaline circulation again... But no matter what happens afterwards, the rapid collapse is the main worry for today.
An interesting, easy-to-understand overview, freely accessible: Rahmstorf, S. 2024. Is the Atlantic overturning circulation approaching a tipping point? Oceanography,
I would think if the AMOC collapsed, there would be more pressure on plates and cause a lot of volcanism .. would that not in turn help the inertia of the conveyor belt to start going again ?
I like this interview. You did a great bomb of holding him to position and clarifying all of the errors in their models. Grand Solar Minimum + magnetic excursion
Grand solar minimum would barely make a dent in human-caused global warming - no more than 0.3°C cooling over the 21st century. Source: J.G. Anet et al. (2013). Earth's magnetic field strength today remains about 90% of what it was two centuries ago. The current trend of strength loss is only about 5% per century. Source: Korte (2019).
I've seen it. Absolutely false. All you guys can do is point to each other's work, can't even explain your own. Your heroes have bad math and no understanding of cause and effect.@@garysarela4431
So if I understand it correctly there are two independent factors at work: The warming of the planet by itself is weakening the AMOC and the meltwater runoff from Greenland is also contributing to the slowdown. Right?
I believe the main issue is the fresh water runoff. This weakens the AMOC and since the AMOC itself brings salty water to the system, the slowdown furthers weakens the AMOC until a critical threshold is reached.
@@climatechat Thanks for the clarification. In no video or article I found it was made clear which process is stronger. As I understand the warmer water by itself is also slowing down the AMOC as warmer water doesn't sink that easy. Would be interesting to know how big the influence of both factors is distributed in percentage terms - if this is even possible to say.
Hi, regards AMOC & Pacific overturning/upwelling currents depend entirely on freezeup brine volume surrounding Antarctica from rain-snow-meltwater lowering sea_surface pH surrounding the continent at 8.05pH today dissolving plankton 10-times faster vs PETM The balance for marinebiology's calcium_carbonate saturationpoint pH of 8.2 about which pH varies from volcanics over time. We must raise pH globally to refreeze seabed methane clathrate deposits now bubble_fields by a water_column is too warm to 4km/13,120ft deep the deposits 1400-billion tons of methane with only 5-billion in today's atmosphere. Fwiw, reference of recent paper 2023 Kara-Laptev-EastSiberia Seas
Maybe the beaufort gyre did release all that cold, fresh water. It is 5°C in south england at 05:30 am on the 13th of june. It should not be this cold in the middle of summer.
34:11 when Greenland tips (6m sea level) than AMOC will also tip. than southern hemisphere begins to heat up than antarctic (60m sea level) will melt (same like @DrJamesEHansen says)
Will never happen. If it happens the world we know did not exist. Should be an Event like after the great flood. Go Google catastrophic plate tectonics from baumgardner snelling vardiman wise Austin.
Being anywhere near positive about geo-engenering when you just concluded that the most used climatemodel has a pretty critical fault in it is scary to say the least. I just turned on the heat yesterday (june! in western Europe) and the veg. garden doesn't really get going either, plants are waiting for warmth.
While implementing geo-engineering carries some risks, *not* implementing geo-engineering likely carries much larger risks. There are no status quo options anymore. See my episode on The Trolley Problem: th-cam.com/users/livesgs_tboPwvA
The Gulf Stream surface flow part few hundred kms (maybe a bit more) south of Greenland running sort of to the east-northeast is driven like this +/-5%: 16 Sv AMOC thermohaline driven, pressure difference at depth from Svalbard down to southern Brazil. 16 Sv Wind-driven North Atlantic gyre, driven by a huge clockwise wind. ---------- 32 Sv Total Gulf Stream surface flow
Current trend for global warming is still 3-5C, we are still making new emission records. And in northern Europe it is doubled. So this means 6-10C warming by 2100. Weirdly similar cooling is predicted on AMOC shutdown. Overall weather pattern shifts in this kind of change would be much harder and unpredictable. Specially seasonal trends might get much harder with higher extremes. Jet stream is already slowed down and is causing 20C shifts in few days. While the rest of the world has been warming, Scandinavia has been pretty cool specially in 2023, is this a trend for the future or just El Niño/jet stream type variability? It is also estimated that polar sea ice has melted 36% less, because of AMOC slowing. Specially this has lessened melting near Svalbard. This also gives one explanation why some models have showed earlier blue ocean event that has not happened yet. Also if these amounts of heat is not travelling north, the equator and southern hemisphere will be heated much higher and rapidly. I think that one of these events might have already happened. Gulf of Mexico had these bathtub temperatures that killed plenty of wildlife too. These events will be much worse when the heat does not transfer to the north as it used to. Also there are fears that Antarctica melting may worsen when this heat is pushed toward it. Antartica melting will rise sea levels specially in northern hemisphere due to gravitational effects (and vice versa in Greenland case).
The "AMOC To Collapse Scam" Is Back How does the AMOC work? The AMOC is a large system of ocean currents, like a conveyor belt, driven by differences in temperature and salt content - the water's density. As warm water flows northwards it cools and some evaporation occurs, which increases the amount of salt in the water. Low temperature and a high salt content make the water denser, and this dense water sinks deep into the ocean. The cold, dense water slowly spreads southwards, several kilometres below the surface. Eventually, it gets pulled back to the surface and warms in a process called "upwelling" and the circulation is complete. This global process makes sure that the world's oceans are continually mixed, and that heat and energy are distributed around the earth. This, in turn, contributes to the climate we experience today. Has the AMOC been changing? Oceanographers have been measuring the AMOC continuously since 2004. The measurements have shown that the AMOC varies from year to year, and it is likely that these variations have an impact on the weather in the UK. However it is too early to say for sure whether there are any long term trends. Before 2004 the AMOC was only measured a few times, and to go back further into the past we need to look at indirect evidence (for example from sediments on the sea floor). The indirect evidence doesn't always agree on the details, but it seems likely that there have been some large, rapid changes in the AMOC in the past (for example around the end of the last ice age). What will be the effect of climate change on the AMOC? Climate models suggest that the AMOC will weaken over the 21st Century as greenhouse gases increase. This is because as the atmosphere warms, the surface ocean beneath it retains more of its heat. Meanwhile increases in rainfall and ice melt mean it gets fresher too. All these changes make the ocean water lighter and so reduce the sinking in the ' conveyor belt', leading to a weaker AMOC. So the AMOC is very likely to weaken, but it's considered very unlikely that large, rapid changes in the AMOC, as seen in past times, will happen in the 21st Century. The effect of a weaker AMOC is included when making projections of future climate change for the UK. A weaker AMOC will bring less warm water northwards, and this will partly offset the warming effect of the greenhouse gases over western Europe. For the gradual weakening that is likely over the 21st Century, the overall effect is still a warming. Oceanographers have been measuring the AMOC continuously since 2004. The measurements have shown that the AMOC varies from year to year, and it is likely that these variations have an impact on the weather in the UK. However it is too early to say for sure whether there are any long term trends. Before 2004 the AMOC was only measured a few times, So we only have data since 2004, and the year to year variations are large. To pretend that such a short series is in any way significant is not only unscientific but fraudulent.
Hot take: People over the age of say, 40 should not be listened to when it comes to SRM, because they are not going to live through the consequences if/when it further messes the climate. Being gung ho about screwing with the climate MORE as a fix for us screwing with the climate is just plain insanity - definitionally.
Decarbonize our civilization, all the aerosols rain down and suddenly we're over 2℃ which is a death sentence. How do you suggest our civilization survive that when we're at 1.5℃ and have megadroughts, methane feedbacks, massive wildfires year round, and not to mention a lot more crop failures ensuring more starvation. Parts of the world are getting uninhabitable, climate refugees flee to other countries who gradually shift towards rightwing fascism to keep said refugees out due to their own resource constraints caused by climate change. The worst possible side effects of SRM are already less horrifying than the best cases of any scenario where we don't do SRM. We've already screwed things up horribly. Though, like antidepressants to a depressed person, SRM will not solve the problem, but it will give us the time and stability to allow us a second chance at getting it right.
Implicit in your comment is the idea that things might be better without climate interventions such as SRM. But as you can see from today's discussion, a world with >2ºC warming, an AMOC collapse, and other impacts of the past and current geoengineering we are doing to the planet will not be acceptable to anyone. The purpose of SRM is to *reduce* the impacts of human geoenginnering. What's really insane is that we continued to increase fossil fuel emissions after we were clearly warned of the consequences of doing so 40 years ago.
Say the truth The "AMOC To Collapse Scam" Is Back How does the AMOC work? The AMOC is a large system of ocean currents, like a conveyor belt, driven by differences in temperature and salt content - the water's density. As warm water flows northwards it cools and some evaporation occurs, which increases the amount of salt in the water. Low temperature and a high salt content make the water denser, and this dense water sinks deep into the ocean. The cold, dense water slowly spreads southwards, several kilometres below the surface. Eventually, it gets pulled back to the surface and warms in a process called "upwelling" and the circulation is complete. This global process makes sure that the world's oceans are continually mixed, and that heat and energy are distributed around the earth. This, in turn, contributes to the climate we experience today. Has the AMOC been changing? Oceanographers have been measuring the AMOC continuously since 2004. The measurements have shown that the AMOC varies from year to year, and it is likely that these variations have an impact on the weather in the UK. However it is too early to say for sure whether there are any long term trends. Before 2004 the AMOC was only measured a few times, and to go back further into the past we need to look at indirect evidence (for example from sediments on the sea floor). The indirect evidence doesn't always agree on the details, but it seems likely that there have been some large, rapid changes in the AMOC in the past (for example around the end of the last ice age). What will be the effect of climate change on the AMOC? Climate models suggest that the AMOC will weaken over the 21st Century as greenhouse gases increase. This is because as the atmosphere warms, the surface ocean beneath it retains more of its heat. Meanwhile increases in rainfall and ice melt mean it gets fresher too. All these changes make the ocean water lighter and so reduce the sinking in the ' conveyor belt', leading to a weaker AMOC. So the AMOC is very likely to weaken, but it's considered very unlikely that large, rapid changes in the AMOC, as seen in past times, will happen in the 21st Century. The effect of a weaker AMOC is included when making projections of future climate change for the UK. A weaker AMOC will bring less warm water northwards, and this will partly offset the warming effect of the greenhouse gases over western Europe. For the gradual weakening that is likely over the 21st Century, the overall effect is still a warming. Oceanographers have been measuring the AMOC continuously since 2004. The measurements have shown that the AMOC varies from year to year, and it is likely that these variations have an impact on the weather in the UK. However it is too early to say for sure whether there are any long term trends. Before 2004 the AMOC was only measured a few times, So we only have data since 2004, and the year to year variations are large. To pretend that such a short series is in any way significant is not only unscientific but fraudulent.
@@alexschievink the guys here deleted my recommendations for you about serious climate information sources.could be also the Yt liarprotectionalgorithm.
Simply not true. "While all models are wrong, some are useful" Here is one example: www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hansens-1988-projections/ "The bottom line? Scenario B is pretty close and certainly well within the error estimates of the real world changes. And if you factor in the 5 to 10% overestimate of the forcings in a simple way, Scenario B would be right in the middle of the observed trends. It is certainly close enough to provide confidence that the model is capable of matching the global mean temperature rise!"
You guys just toppled the entire real estate industry of Europe, agrar industry, mortgage and loan sector, you name it, and have, as of right now, 280 views. When are people going to listen to this? Thank you so much for sharing
If I owned a house in Europe, I'd want to see this!
might help if they weren't chuckling all the way through it?
It will be interesting if the AMOC collapses and Europe starts to cool dramatically (even if global warming lessens the effect) while the global south continuous to warm. At that point the global south will want to use geoengineering to slow down or drop the temperature while Europe definitely don't want to do this because that means it will be getting even colder. This will be a hot bed for a global conflict.
"global warming" was never real. It is the biggest scam in all of time.
Seeing as it is down to 5°C here in south england at 05:30 am and that nothing they ever talked about happened, it is obvious.
Thank you so very much gentlemen. It is truly TRULY appreciated.
Is the Northeast part of the US still rising from the last ice sheet (like Norway)? That might offset some of the rising sea level in some places.
44:51 minus 30 Celsius is warmer than minus 30 Fahrenheit.
I saw elsewhere that while Norhtern Europe would cool significantly (ice age level), Sourhtern Europe would become as hot as today's Africa (it's already started). This would create a very large temperature difference between the southern and norhtern part of the continent. No-one knows exactly what this will do in terms of driving storms, but it can't be good.
@9:30 "Model years" or modelled years? Modelled means the duration of the whole experiment... Model years is more vague expression.
None of these says anything about what happens inside the modelled years. You may have AMOC collapse in 30 years or 500 years.
Because the models are still struggling to explain event the collapse, they are not saying anything what happens afterwards. Ie. 6-10C temperature drop that may come from collapse, means the Greenland is likely not melting anymore. And that means the fresh water flux that caused the collapse does not exist anymore. Also after the collapse temperature difference between ice front and southern ocean will be much higher. And these may trigger AMOC and its thermohaline circulation again...
But no matter what happens afterwards, the rapid collapse is the main worry for today.
An interesting, easy-to-understand overview, freely accessible:
Rahmstorf, S. 2024. Is the Atlantic overturning circulation approaching a tipping point? Oceanography,
I would think if the AMOC collapsed, there would be more pressure on plates and cause a lot of volcanism .. would that not in turn help the inertia of the conveyor belt to start going again ?
I like this interview. You did a great bomb of holding him to position and clarifying all of the errors in their models. Grand Solar Minimum + magnetic excursion
Grand solar minimum would barely make a dent in human-caused global warming - no more than 0.3°C cooling over the 21st century. Source: J.G. Anet et al. (2013).
Earth's magnetic field strength today remains about 90% of what it was two centuries ago. The current trend of strength loss is only about 5% per century. Source: Korte (2019).
I've seen it. Absolutely false. All you guys can do is point to each other's work, can't even explain your own. Your heroes have bad math and no understanding of cause and effect.@@garysarela4431
So if I understand it correctly there are two independent factors at work:
The warming of the planet by itself is weakening the AMOC and the meltwater runoff from Greenland is also contributing to the slowdown.
Right?
I believe the main issue is the fresh water runoff. This weakens the AMOC and since the AMOC itself brings salty water to the system, the slowdown furthers weakens the AMOC until a critical threshold is reached.
@@climatechat Thanks for the clarification. In no video or article I found it was made clear which process is stronger.
As I understand the warmer water by itself is also slowing down the AMOC as warmer water doesn't sink that easy.
Would be interesting to know how big the influence of both factors is distributed in percentage terms - if this is even possible to say.
Very interesting conversation, thank you for putting out all this information. I just subscribed.
Hi, regards AMOC & Pacific overturning/upwelling currents depend entirely on freezeup brine volume surrounding Antarctica from rain-snow-meltwater lowering sea_surface pH surrounding the continent at 8.05pH today dissolving plankton 10-times faster vs PETM
The balance for marinebiology's calcium_carbonate saturationpoint pH of 8.2 about which pH varies from volcanics over time.
We must raise pH globally to refreeze seabed methane clathrate deposits now bubble_fields by a water_column is too warm to 4km/13,120ft deep the deposits 1400-billion tons of methane with only 5-billion in today's atmosphere.
Fwiw, reference of recent paper 2023 Kara-Laptev-EastSiberia Seas
Van Westen has a more recent paper (arxiv 2407.19909): "Substantial Risk of 21st Century AMOC Tipping even under Moderate Climate Change".
Maybe the beaufort gyre did release all that cold, fresh water. It is 5°C in south england at 05:30 am on the 13th of june.
It should not be this cold in the middle of summer.
34:11 when Greenland tips (6m sea level)
than AMOC will also tip.
than southern hemisphere begins to heat up
than antarctic (60m sea level) will melt
(same like @DrJamesEHansen says)
Will never happen. If it happens the world we know did not exist.
Should be an Event like after the great flood. Go Google catastrophic plate tectonics from baumgardner snelling vardiman wise Austin.
Being anywhere near positive about geo-engenering when you just concluded that the most used climatemodel has a pretty critical fault in it is scary to say the least. I just turned on the heat yesterday (june! in western Europe) and the veg. garden doesn't really get going either, plants are waiting for warmth.
While implementing geo-engineering carries some risks, *not* implementing geo-engineering likely carries much larger risks. There are no status quo options anymore. See my episode on The Trolley Problem: th-cam.com/users/livesgs_tboPwvA
Why is there only thumbs down and not thumbs up in your youtube page?
The Gulf Stream surface flow part few hundred kms (maybe a bit more) south of Greenland running sort of to the east-northeast is driven like this +/-5%:
16 Sv AMOC thermohaline driven, pressure difference at depth from Svalbard down to southern Brazil.
16 Sv Wind-driven North Atlantic gyre, driven by a huge clockwise wind.
----------
32 Sv Total Gulf Stream surface flow
Like story on ocean rise contributing to Amoc ...affect on currents/:sandy hook/ long island scouring...Pungent sound slowdown?
Current trend for global warming is still 3-5C, we are still making new emission records. And in northern Europe it is doubled. So this means 6-10C warming by 2100. Weirdly similar cooling is predicted on AMOC shutdown.
Overall weather pattern shifts in this kind of change would be much harder and unpredictable. Specially seasonal trends might get much harder with higher extremes. Jet stream is already slowed down and is causing 20C shifts in few days. While the rest of the world has been warming, Scandinavia has been pretty cool specially in 2023, is this a trend for the future or just El Niño/jet stream type variability?
It is also estimated that polar sea ice has melted 36% less, because of AMOC slowing. Specially this has lessened melting near Svalbard. This also gives one explanation why some models have showed earlier blue ocean event that has not happened yet.
Also if these amounts of heat is not travelling north, the equator and southern hemisphere will be heated much higher and rapidly. I think that one of these events might have already happened. Gulf of Mexico had these bathtub temperatures that killed plenty of wildlife too. These events will be much worse when the heat does not transfer to the north as it used to. Also there are fears that Antarctica melting may worsen when this heat is pushed toward it. Antartica melting will rise sea levels specially in northern hemisphere due to gravitational effects (and vice versa in Greenland case).
Go find a high bridge liar
Love it...Keep goin
The "AMOC To Collapse Scam" Is Back
How does the AMOC work?
The AMOC is a large system of ocean currents, like a conveyor belt, driven by differences in temperature and salt content - the water's density.
As warm water flows northwards it cools and some evaporation occurs, which increases the amount of salt in the water.
Low temperature and a high salt content make the water denser, and this dense water sinks deep into the ocean.
The cold, dense water slowly spreads southwards, several kilometres below the surface. Eventually, it gets pulled back to the surface and warms in a process called "upwelling" and the circulation is
complete.
This global process makes sure that the world's oceans are continually mixed, and that heat and energy are distributed around the earth. This, in turn, contributes to the climate we experience today.
Has the AMOC been changing?
Oceanographers have been measuring the AMOC continuously since 2004. The measurements have shown that the AMOC varies from year to year, and it is likely that these variations have an impact on the weather in the UK. However it is too early to say for sure whether there are any long term trends.
Before 2004 the AMOC was only measured a few times, and to go back further into the past we need to look at indirect evidence (for example from sediments on the sea floor). The indirect
evidence doesn't always agree on the details, but it seems likely that there have been some large, rapid changes in the AMOC in the past (for example around the end of
the last ice age).
What will be the effect of climate change on the AMOC?
Climate models suggest that the AMOC will weaken over the 21st Century as greenhouse gases increase. This is because as the atmosphere warms, the surface ocean beneath it retains more of its heat. Meanwhile increases in rainfall and ice melt mean it gets fresher too. All these changes make the ocean water lighter and so reduce the sinking in the ' conveyor belt', leading to a weaker AMOC. So the AMOC is very likely to weaken, but it's considered very unlikely that large, rapid changes in the AMOC, as seen in past times, will happen in the 21st Century.
The effect of a weaker AMOC is included when making projections of future climate change for the UK.
A weaker AMOC will bring less warm water northwards, and this
will partly offset the warming effect of the greenhouse gases over western Europe. For the gradual weakening that is likely over the 21st Century, the overall effect is still a warming.
Oceanographers have been measuring the AMOC continuously since 2004. The measurements have shown that the AMOC varies from year to year, and it is likely that these variations have an impact on the weather in the UK. However it is too early to say for sure whether there are any long term trends. Before 2004 the AMOC was only measured a few times,
So we only have data since 2004, and the year to year variations are large. To pretend that such a short series is in any way significant is not only unscientific but fraudulent.
Hot take: People over the age of say, 40 should not be listened to when it comes to SRM, because they are not going to live through the consequences if/when it further messes the climate.
Being gung ho about screwing with the climate MORE as a fix for us screwing with the climate is just plain insanity - definitionally.
Decarbonize our civilization, all the aerosols rain down and suddenly we're over 2℃ which is a death sentence. How do you suggest our civilization survive that when we're at 1.5℃ and have megadroughts, methane feedbacks, massive wildfires year round, and not to mention a lot more crop failures ensuring more starvation. Parts of the world are getting uninhabitable, climate refugees flee to other countries who gradually shift towards rightwing fascism to keep said refugees out due to their own resource constraints caused by climate change.
The worst possible side effects of SRM are already less horrifying than the best cases of any scenario where we don't do SRM.
We've already screwed things up horribly. Though, like antidepressants to a depressed person, SRM will not solve the problem, but it will give us the time and stability to allow us a second chance at getting it right.
Implicit in your comment is the idea that things might be better without climate interventions such as SRM. But as you can see from today's discussion, a world with >2ºC warming, an AMOC collapse, and other impacts of the past and current geoengineering we are doing to the planet will not be acceptable to anyone. The purpose of SRM is to *reduce* the impacts of human geoenginnering. What's really insane is that we continued to increase fossil fuel emissions after we were clearly warned of the consequences of doing so 40 years ago.
I’d say 45, but yes, totally agree. They need to sit down.
the corporations plan to adapt, not mitigate@@climatechat
@@jessieadore How about instead you just listen to younger people? I've been fighting for action on climate change for over 20 years. How about you?
The Sky is Falling!
Only if you believe these panicking guys
Wake up everybody. Go to Climate the Movie and learn real science.
So.... it was another model. Yawn.
Hahaha What else could they use, another planet just like Earth to do a few experiments ?
Say the truth
The "AMOC To Collapse Scam" Is Back
How does the AMOC work?
The AMOC is a large system of ocean currents, like a conveyor belt, driven by differences in temperature and salt content - the water's density.
As warm water flows northwards it cools and some evaporation occurs, which increases the amount of salt in the water.
Low temperature and a high salt content make the water denser, and this dense water sinks deep into the ocean.
The cold, dense water slowly spreads southwards, several kilometres below the surface. Eventually, it gets pulled back to the surface and warms in a process called "upwelling" and the circulation is
complete.
This global process makes sure that the world's oceans are continually mixed, and that heat and energy are distributed around the earth. This, in turn, contributes to the climate we experience today.
Has the AMOC been changing?
Oceanographers have been measuring the AMOC continuously since 2004. The measurements have shown that the AMOC varies from year to year, and it is likely that these variations have an impact on the weather in the UK. However it is too early to say for sure whether there are any long term trends.
Before 2004 the AMOC was only measured a few times, and to go back further into the past we need to look at indirect evidence (for example from sediments on the sea floor). The indirect
evidence doesn't always agree on the details, but it seems likely that there have been some large, rapid changes in the AMOC in the past (for example around the end of
the last ice age).
What will be the effect of climate change on the AMOC?
Climate models suggest that the AMOC will weaken over the 21st Century as greenhouse gases increase. This is because as the atmosphere warms, the surface ocean beneath it retains more of its heat. Meanwhile increases in rainfall and ice melt mean it gets fresher too. All these changes make the ocean water lighter and so reduce the sinking in the ' conveyor belt', leading to a weaker AMOC. So the AMOC is very likely to weaken, but it's considered very unlikely that large, rapid changes in the AMOC, as seen in past times, will happen in the 21st Century.
The effect of a weaker AMOC is included when making projections of future climate change for the UK.
A weaker AMOC will bring less warm water northwards, and this
will partly offset the warming effect of the greenhouse gases over western Europe. For the gradual weakening that is likely over the 21st Century, the overall effect is still a warming.
Oceanographers have been measuring the AMOC continuously since 2004. The measurements have shown that the AMOC varies from year to year, and it is likely that these variations have an impact on the weather in the UK. However it is too early to say for sure whether there are any long term trends. Before 2004 the AMOC was only measured a few times,
So we only have data since 2004, and the year to year variations are large. To pretend that such a short series is in any way significant is not only unscientific but fraudulent.
@nehner thanks for the reply. I had a hunch that it is mostly fearmongering bs like so much you hear nowadays but good to see that confirmed!!
@@alexschievink solid sources in climate are notrickszone wattsupwiththat and german Eike, australias Malcolm roberts
@@alexschievink the guys here deleted my recommendations for you about serious climate information sources.could be also the Yt liarprotectionalgorithm.
Fact: We're all guessing.
Who is "we" kimosabe?
Exactly! Nobody knows, and models only get you so far. At least not enough to justify dangerous experiments.
The models have never produced a predicted result.
Simply not true. "While all models are wrong, some are useful" Here is one example: www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/05/hansens-1988-projections/
"The bottom line? Scenario B is pretty close and certainly well within the error estimates of the real world changes. And if you factor in the 5 to 10% overestimate of the forcings in a simple way, Scenario B would be right in the middle of the observed trends. It is certainly close enough to provide confidence that the model is capable of matching the global mean temperature rise!"
@@climatechatyou seem to be an old liar