Uncertain Currents - Predicting Tipping Points in our Ocean and Climate | Fairbrother Lecture 2024

For many of us the climate crisis mainly calls to mind rising global temperatures, but the crisis goes far beyond this - we are at risk of pushing our planet across climate ‘tipping points,’ critical thresholds where small changes can lead to abrupt and irreversible shifts in the Earth’s climate system. One major element in climate tipping is a huge system of ocean currents, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is responsible for Europe's relatively mild climate. Past climate patterns show that these currents can switch abruptly between today’s vigorous flow and a much weaker flow state. A future shutdown would have potentially devastating consequences in Europe and around the world.
Media stories often paint a catastrophic picture of possible climate futures, with runaway ice sheet collapse, abrupt sea level rise and rainforest dieback, possibly triggered as early as this decade. But how close to these tipping points are we really?
Scientists work continuously to improve methods for predicting tipping points, meaning that our available knowledge shifts and develops. The complexity of the climate system also means significant uncertainties remain about tipping thresholds. Given this complexity and changing states of knowledge, how realistic is our yearning for fixed and definite answers and how should we best manage risk with limited knowledge?
In this lecture doctoral researcher in mathematics of climate, Reyk Börner, gives an inside view of what we know, don’t know, and perhaps can’t know about the future of our ocean currents and climate.
For more information about this research and a list of references supporting the contents of the lecture please visit reykboerner.gi....
About the Fairbrother Lecture
The Fairbrother Lecture is a University public lecture organised by the Doctoral and Researcher College at University of Reading. It is named after Jack Fairbrother who in 1929 became one of the first students to be awarded a PhD from the University. The lecture is an annual event at which a Reading doctoral researcher presents their research to a wider audience. For further information and links to other lecture see www.reading.ac.uk/fairbrother-lecture.
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[@SixSigmaPi]

Excellent lecture, well done and good luck with your PhD

[@volkerengels5298]

5:10 ....to just not mention coral reefs - tipping at 1.5K
21:50 I don't feel that is clear here: IPCC said **the weakening strongly impact...** -> the collapse is an add on top
....so - we have to expect raising 'strong impact' during this century ...from now on or so.
23:25 Showing this graph while having a 'good one' about weather in GB...
Just try to imagine the **resulting extreme weather**
if sounds harsh - I liked the video. At least someone more is talking about this....

[@thunderstorm6630]

very good lecture, very easy to understand, thank you for your work.

[@masterdecats6418]

Great Video!

[@Deathmittens1]

We are going to exceed rpc8.5, we are going to zip right past our worst case scenario and enter into 100,000+ years of hot house conditions

[@frinoffrobis]

yes, probably

[@rajdevarapalli4346]

Explained the modeling process too.

[@brianwheeldon4643]

This sort of presentation of a Phd thesis (maybe good) is good for an advanced academic climate science degree, but is not so good for motivating people to change the climate crisis the world is in. If one of the aims is to encourage change, invite the public to take action to ensure the government of the day takes action to meet or necessarily speed changes towards full mitigation of carbon burning (statistically speaking) then it falls far short. The sorts of outcomes and consequences in the latter case must include the consequences for life on the planet, including human life. The term 'uncertainty' should also be taken to mean uncertainty about the continuation of society around the globe post 2060, and what the reality on the ground for those experiencing such catastrophic change actually is. Thank you

[@thatone2586]

People will continue as they do until they have no choice. Faster than expected model predictions have already proven this.

[@rajdevarapalli4346]

Explained well with better animations and drawings.

[@trstquint7114]

Finally, Mars will have a big sister.

[@OldScientist]

When it comes to tipping points this is what the IPCC (Special Report on implications of 1.5C or more warming, Chapter 3) says:“there is little evidence for a tipping point in the transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. No evidence has been found for irreversibility or tipping points, suggesting that year-round sea ice will return given a suitable climate”. The IPCC also do not believe the melting of the arctic permafrost will cause a tipping point in the release of warming methane gas “the carbon released to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost is projected to be restricted to 0.09-0.19 Gt C yr-1 at 2°C of global warming and to 0.08-0.16 Gt C yr-1 at 1.5°C, which does not indicate a tipping point”.
The Earth's climate is a multi input thermodynamic system and will conform to Le Chatelier's Principle.

[@1237barca]

The oceans barely matter in the short to medium term. The ocean has so much momentum that it is difficult to change. The atmosphere however, has relatively little inertia. When the arctic ice melts, the northern hemisphere’s polar cell reverses in November. Bye bye northern hemisphere’s weather patterns.

[@Jeremy_one]

If these smart people could just come up with some kind system to clean out the air

[@stephenbrown9998]

Crap

[@gnorman-ct2lt]

I'm still trying to figure out how we came out of the last ice age without all those greenhouse gases? And note to self if I ever find myself in a ice age I'll just burn a bunch of oil then it'll be Sunny days again.lol

[@noconsent]

It's called Milankovitch cycles, and our current cycle would have the earth enter another ice age, but instead the planet is warming faster than it ever has in its entire history. You aren't wrong, want to avoid an ice age, cause global climate change with green house gasses. Worked for us this cycle.

[@-LightningRod-]

you sound like SATAN

[@gnorman-ct2lt]

Everyone keeps talking about climate change and greenhouse gases but no one seems to be paying attention to how the Earth's core and electro magnetic field work in sequence together

[@TheMighty_T]

Scientists have clear evidence on the impact of climate change, it is causing direct damage right now, and will get worse if we don't deal with it.
That is why it is a hot topic compared to others.

[@ppetal1]

They are paying attention to Earth's core and magnetic fields. Pay attention.

[@gnorman-ct2lt]

@@ppetal1 trust me I am more than you'll ever know

[@ppetal1]

@@gnorman-ct2lt sure thing.

[@gnorman-ct2lt]

I'm still trying to figure out how we came out of the last ice age without all those greenhouse gases? And note to self if I ever find myself in a ice age I'll just burn a bunch of oil then it'll be Sunny days again.lol

[@-LightningRod-]

you sound like SATAN