It's fascinating when everyone looks at the same data & derives different conclusions. The host has an in-depth knowledge adding to the debate. My 2c is that although deflation is still a danger, inflation is the way forward. The Central banks & govts are stop gapping any system cracks as we adjust to the new regime of fiscal dominance. I believe we're at where they wanted to be last decade. Productive infrastructure builds are coming & debts inflated away. However, negotiating USA rival's in the BRICs is still the wild card.
Negotiate? 30:27 possible therefore it will surely be some sort of war. I wish it could be different. I believe believe Determinism rules. Does it apply to nations? Time will say. 😵💫
Jack is doing an amazing job with thoughtful questions, he lets the speaker speaks without interruption and jab in counter-balance views and solid questions at appropriate time. Great job!
and then goes on for just a slong speaking about how his guest is wrong often expressing certain amounts of ignorance even if the guest is wrong. However the Guest is very good at playing 'yes but'
It is one of the places that really tries to make the guest articulate their position and its extremely informative. Hats off to you guys, great job Jack and Mel!
True but he doesn't do this (counterpoint with disagreements) with famous guests. He did this with this guy since he is more unknown. Wish he'd be more consistent -e.g. Lizz Ann from Schwab's interview
The US economy cannot survive without continuous credit and debt creation. The FED will print more money and the average American will go just that much further in debt. Meanwhile, foreigners lust for the greenback. Their economies are in worse condition than the US... if that's even possible. Someone is going to be left holding the bag...
Gold might crash in a liquidity crunch, but many precious metal holders are prepared for this and unlikely to be forced sellers. The paper market would tank and possibly collapse. Hearing from an experienced investor who has overcome adversity is motivating. It can be scary when your portfolio turns red, but if you've invested in strong companies, stick to your goals and continue growing them
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
So how exactly can we guard against the coming financial reset Like what are really the best strategies to make our portfolio recession proof against the incoming financial reset? I'm very worried about my $110k stock portfolio.
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.
I agree, having the right plan is priceless. My portfolio is well-suited for any market and recently doubled since early last year. My CFP and I are aiming for a seven-figure goal, which might take another year to achieve.
Finding financial advisors like Sophie Lynn Carrabus who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
It’s amazing really. We have a financial crisis, caused by greedy, reckless financial institutions. Congress passes legislation requiring those institutions to be less greedy and reckless. The institutions then lobby to have those restrictions removed, usually in the name of “remaining competitive”. This leads to another financial crisis. It’s completely predictable, and we have been doing this dance since the Great Depression almost 100 years ago.
Agree; the rules should be applicable to all banks - big or small. First; very few meaningful laws are passed and then this cycle of doing-undoing seems to support deregulation risking the economy and the faith in banks.
I believe using an investing advisor isn’t a terrific idea. In the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, I was literally experiencing horrible dreams before I spoke with an advisor. In conclusion, I was able to increase my initial investment from $320k to almost $2.5 million in 2011 with the aid of my advisor, and I later bought my first investment property.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Carol Vivian Constable for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
For those moving cash from money market to other assets given the Fed pivot, what are some income-producing assets (not physical real estate) that you are prioritizing over the next year to offset your loss in income?
Dividend Stock and REITs. As interest going down, I think these two asset types are going to be more attractive. Besides getting dividend income, I expect them to get appreciation in value as well.
Even if it just gives 4% dividend growth long term, long term inflation is just 3%. So, that’s still solid. As long as those divvies keep increasing, even in a recession, that’s what i need. I’m thinking huge percentage in SCHD, with smaller amounts in other areas not covered by the fund, like REITS and BDC’s.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial with an Experts guidance. I have 850k in equity, 75k cash earning 4% interest, 685k in roth ira, 120k in 401k, Gold and silver bars. age is 58. My advisr helped me realign my portfolio to my risk tolerance and it boomed shortly.
@@carolynrose1816 Well it seems like a lot of your interest is riding on your source, I could really get well accustomed to your viewpoint, get me involved.
I've stuck with ‘’Jennifer Leigh Hickman ” for about 9 years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
My ONLY counterargument is US foreign policy which is poking everybody to a war that eventually will start a world conflict. With that the outcome is even less predictable because it could be even much worse for US or potentially solve most of these issues for few more decades.
@@iancassie9840 I agree the guest is correct. How can ouur host think banks like Silicon valley stuck with ling term bonds at below market rates not to mention deficit spending at massive nonlinear increase is not a problem.?
@@CycleBreakersCommunity Jack was born in the 90's into full blown socialism where everyone and everything is always bailed out. These kids all think the government has their back. Just wait until the wars escalate and the conscription papers start being sent out and see how fast these kids eyes bulge out of their heads.
The people that said the debt was untenable 40 years ago weren't wrong. We paid for it in devalued currency, decreased wages, and fourand a half generations of kids that live off their parents and the government.
Yep endebting the citizens long term is what the government does. Banks were bailed out but not the american citizens. America is in a big financial mess.34+ trillion $ deficit..! Who will fix the financial crisis in the Us? The rich american and jewish oligarchs living outside the Us and having their stash on offshore accounts? The Us could start cleaning that Swamprat nest in Washington Dc and repatriate that untaxed money from those offshore accounts. The billions$/ trillions$ will help the struggling american folks. Poor people living on the streets and other working people living on a weekly paycheck to survive is a real joke in the wealthiest country in the world.
I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful one has to have multiple income streams and so on, also investors should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow, joanna claire focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch
Don't get discouraged just because you can "only" invest like $100 per month. It can compound to tremendous wealth over the course of decades. The important thing is that you keep going!
My advice: to grow financially this year, invest. Saving is good, but investing elevates your finances. Thanks to my financial advisor, my portfolio is thriving, and I'm proud of last year's decisions.
Nice. People often underestimate financial advisors' importance. Over 50 years of data reveal that those who work with advisors typically earn more than those who go it alone. I've been fortunate to work with one for 13 years, resulting in a $3 million portfolio.
What sets top investors apart from the rest? I've got $385K in equity from a home sale and I'm unsure whether to put it into stocks or wait for a more favorable market condition.
You're correct. I think the smartest way to go is to spread out your investments. By putting your money into different asset classes like bonds, real estate, and stocks from other countries, you can lower the risk if one part of the market goes bad.
Based on my own experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1 million in a well-diversified portfolio that has grown exponentially. It takes more than just money to invest in stocks; you must also be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands.
"Laurelyn Gross Pohlmeier," a well-known authority in this field. I would recommend looking into her credentials more because she has a great deal of expertise and is a great resource for anybody looking for advice on how to navigate the financial market.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is probably the 4th time I've watched this interview, over the past month. It's fantastic. This theme ties in strongly w/ what Brent Johnson has spoken about, since around 2019/20; as well as, more loosely with Steven VanMetre's content.
You missed one big point on why we cannot turn into Japan and run 220% debt to gdp....the US no longer manufactures goods, we have massive trade deficits and the rest of the world will not be willing to take our dollars
We certainly can. In fact I think that is exactly what is going to happen. This will cause us to go into stagflation like we have never seen. I am ready for it. I am not just ready for that scenario. I am also ready for a massive crash, a nasty recession, or even a depression. Now I am just waiting. We are getting very close to the end of our current monitary system..
Well we are trying to reshore our manufacturing base . Just let us drill for the oil that we need so that we can build everything else that we are going to need you.Green dummies are too stupid.
There was only one minor mention of BRICS, in regards to gold here. BRICS has the potential to upend everything America attempts. And that would be good for the majority of the earths population. Too bad murica, you lose....
@@gmw3083 I think you give the BRICs way too much credit. I think next we get a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. The whole world will be in a depression. Yes, this will make folks just trade commodities on their local currency instead of the US Dollar faster but you might be missing the fast that American's are the biggest consumers. If they stop standing (which is already happening). That will affect the whole world. So America will lose... it will be bad, but it is going to much worse for everyone else. To put it another away a nasty recession for America and a depression everywhere else. If America get a depression (very possible) the rest of the world is going to be very scary. I also, think you are way too bullish gold. You can't eat gold. And gold is not a good barter tool should the currencies collapse. Gold is a good hedge to inflation and a store of wealth. BTC is better on both of those things and it is not crazy heavy, hard to store. It is also no manipulated by central banks and government. There is a reason it is is the best performing asset of all time.
Is this a good time to buy stocks? I know everyone is saying stocks are at a discount and all, but just how long will It take to recover, or am I better off putting my money elsewhere. I need a lot as rent, inflation alone eat up almost all of what I make, with dependents and other obligations included. Tbh it's an uncertain year for me.
people calling stocks momentum a flunk aren't considering the long run. The companies themselves have not changed, it's the market that changed. Steady as it goes, and it'll regroup in weeks.
If you are not too savvy with the market, it’s the best time! just buy and hold on strong companies or best you seek out areas within sectors that can help you sustain a balance in both growth and value overtime. In certain cases, it's even wiser to speak with a smartvestor to determine options best meant for you, I personally did this, and it works pretty well..
right now I’m being focused on renewable energy, semiconductors, Ai chips which will be hugely integral on every sectors in the coming years. an absolute power move right now.
I'm mostly in cash and waiting for this market to re-level on the reality of our situation. Or are there any ways I can avoid a crunch and maximize my savings of $350k?
The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped for a crash that comes afterwards. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly $1m, since covid outbreak to date.
I must say, she appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
The economic crisis and downturn are all the signs of 2008 market crash 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the US dollar or is it okay to move all emergency and savings to precious metals?
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million..
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I think Jack missed the point with the SS trust fund running out. The net trust fund outflows are already costing the federal government because they have to pay back the trust fund to pay the outflows since they already borrowed and spent everything in the fund. The SS trust owns IOUs from the feds that are payable on demand -- all previous net inflows have been borrowed and spent by the feds. The increasing pace of outflows is the issue because it means the feds have to borrow to fund those outflows since the feds don't have enough other income to pay back the SS trust fund. When the trust fund runs dry, if it causes a political event, it will also likely create a market event for psychological reasons if the devaluation has not already been priced in; if the devaluation gets priced in, it will either hasten the decline or be shocking enough that DC gets its act together and cuts out the fat.
Bottom line is they need to stop giving SS to millionaires and billionaires. You would think they would be embarrassed to take it. But no. Good example of the moral status of the country. Then, get busy and do the hard thinking of more ways to fund the needs of seniors. 🇺🇸
Cutting outflows and increased taxation will only forestall the inevitable. Eventually, U.S. debit will no longer be desirable. The Fed will then become the lender/buyer of last resort, and to do so, the Fed will lend (create) currency into existence. That will create significant inflation. Jim Rickards, and a few others as well, have been predicting Treasury's need to revalue the gold. Jim suggests that $15k/oz will be necessary to "balance the books".
@@realpropertymangement7640 the Federal Reserve has accumulated losses in excess of twice their capital. Disregarding the losses, they have 200x leverage. Currently, the impairment on Fed liabilities is over 2%. It's already quite dire. The Fed needs to bail out the feds so the feds can bail out the Fed. Clown world to the max. Revaluing gold won't fix this, but I suspect that gold and bitcoins will probably explode in fiat terms once people realize that the USD monetary system is a pile of turds.
I'm convinced that investing 50k-100k in the right company before it goes big is more important than saving for retirement. However, picking the right company is so hard. I have around 200k in a HYSA and want to invest it. What are the best opportunities now?
I believe investors should start with S&P 500/ETFs for a solid foundation, then diversify across asset classes and maintain disciplined, regular investing to minimize risks and maximize growth.
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, Financial Consultants are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded massively in ROI, summing up to 7-figures as of today
I agree the market is going to crash because people are broke can't spend and small businesses and retail locations are closing but knowing when it is going to crash is another thing all together
The interest on US debt is now to the point we cannot afford basic things like defense, SS, Medicare. This is how you know the game is almost up. Every day is worse than the prior day. This is just like the character in Office Space.
I can't imagine subscribing to this channel when the host is just like nope you're wrong, it's like talking to my dad about this. When you're used it being ignored you just sort of get comfortable.
So refreshing to hear someone else talk about the exact points that I've been trying to scream from the rooftop the past year. Starting to feel less crazy hearing more and more discuss these dynamics
Treasury yields and other safe cash-like investments are raising high returns, yet most investors believe this is a good time to buy stocks than gold despite crash. I'd love to spread across $400k into profit yielding dividend equities and end the year well, but unsure of which to get acquire.
Right, I delegate my day-to-day investing to an advisor ever since suffering a major steep-down late 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, I'm semi-retired with barely 25% short of my $1m retirement goal after subsequent investments.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her an outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
As recession mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some economics sounded off on just how bad this downturn might be - and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $850k at the age of 60.
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Hi All, thanks for any and all comments/interest - even those who disagree with me. Jack, I really appreciated the opportunity to speak with you and express my views to your generally well-informed audience. Best, Mel
I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks will be appreciated.
Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in stocks, but you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
i'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
'Laurelyn Gross Pohlmeier' a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Excellent interview thank you really enjoyed the honesty and the accuracy of the two commentators and I appreciate the house keeping the guest statements accurate
Always great interviews Jack 👍🏻 - but what an interesting one. Mel has one of the most compelling suggestions on how we’re going from the old normal to whatever “crazy” that will eventually have to follow with this trajectory of ours. ⭐️
Outstanding interview! Just discovered your channel I'll be sure to lock in and watch it often. I particularly enjoyed the fact that the host was well versed and educated about financial National and global statistics. He frequently, but politely, challenges gas on a number of the guests statements. As part of the listing audience I really enjoyed that back and forth between the two as a hammered out either of their differences on a particular subject or hammered out their agreement. This is a very educational and very interesting video. Thank you to both of you thank you to both of you
I’ve been friends with Mel for 35 years. That said, I’d like to correct one fact Mr. Mattison. Social security is not 6%. It’s 12.4%, split between employer and employee. If self employed, then you pay the full 12.4%, however 50% of the tax can offset income above the line to AGI. 🤓
Hes saying that the confidence in the dollar is running out. We can borrow to pay for anything, technically, but something has to give and that will be the dollar losing value quickly
Just a heads up…gold has outperformed the S&P the 24 years. And now with deficit spending going parabolic I expect Gold to outperform the S&P the next 20 years
The one point I will remember the most about this guest is the one where he said "the yield curve isn't really inverted, if you look at where mortgages are". I can't believe I never looked at it that way.
I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 85K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. Any advice?
Adding JEPI and JEPQ are smart additions in my opinion. As for staying committed to higher-risk investments, it's all about balancing your risk tolerance with your long-term goals.
The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds. that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 30% capital growth minus dividends.
I think the sole burning question is that who or what will replace the dollar AND do you think the US will just allow the dollar be replaced without any chaos? I have heard all the arguments and timing about the dollar’s demise but no one has been able to make a valid argument about who & what will replace the US dollar or Euro Dollar?
People think the entrenched network effects of the dollar are just going to magically disappear. It doesn’t work that way. There is no other currency on Earth that could even theoretically replace the dollar as global reserve currency, no matter how badly it is managed by the US gov. Not gold. Not bitcoin. Not the Euro. Not the Yuan. Not anything the IMF could come up with. Nothing. This horse and pony show can keep on going for decades to come.
I do find it odd Mel is not calling for WWIII along with his thesis. He's not ruling it out just saying it's not required. About replacing the dollar, it would probably be whichever system appears most stable - like he was talking about higher amounts of gold acting as part of an anchor - of course this would include a multitude of other factors.
Saudi Arabia gets paid in yen for 10% of their total exports in LNG, Russia China trade is at 20% rubel-yen and quickly rising, and there is talk about BRICS starting up their own currency for international trade between those countries. I dont know about that, but what the dollar is going to be replaced by, if it fails, is what the dollar once replaced, pound sterling, local currencies, and so on. The weaponization of the dollar was a horrible strategic move, China is going to run away from it, they already sold 53 billion of american bond securites this last month, and with the tradewar started, US inflation is naturally going to increase. The US have exported inflation due to the petro-dollars status and US moving industry to china, but keeping the domestic market, a TV is now 50% cheaper, a microwave, a breadtoaster, so you get deflation, but if you print money it evens out, giving a superstrong economy for America, but when the trend starts to move backwards the opposite happens, you have to lower the quantity of dollars in existance and import inflation to the USA. The trade-war will, naturally, cause America to import inflation, making need for the m1-m3 supply of money to decrease, or it will cause hyperinflation. And when you import inflation the reverse of exportation of the inflation would need to happen, shrink money supply and increase interest rates. And there lies the crux, will a unites states citizen allow his real income drop 30-60% to balance the equation out to be neutral? If you are a american, explain this, why did you allow china to take over as the worlds industrial powerhouse? You sold your production capacity for some easy money and started to rent it, and now you cant afford to rent it so you put up tariffs and trade barriers to avoid renting it... what even is that? Is it just "short-sighted economical gains and damn the next generation" - type of thinking?
you see.. they talk about about increasing of economy of certain counutry with devaluing local currency thus their exporting increases ... this is another reason why the dollar was accepted as the universal currency after ww2... whatever the case.. there is never option for reduction of working hours of people.. no matter the efficiency
I know you're trying to be pragmatic and you're probably right. But stealing more of what people earned just to put a bandaid on decades completely criminal fiscal policy is just insult to injury.
It may be politically popular but it definitely isn’t politically viable IMO, those effected by raising the contribution cap have an outsized influence on politicians. Itll never be brought to the house floor let alone pass the house & senate
Getting the facts correct would go a long way in establishing credibility Marshal Plan Implementation; The U.S. government did not give money directly to the participating countries so that they could buy whatever they thought they needed. Instead the U.S. delivered the goods and provided services, mainly transatlantic shipping, to the participating governments, which then sold the commodities to businesses and individuals who had to pay the dollar value of the goods in local currency ("counterparts") into so-called ERP Special Accounts that were set up at the country's central bank. This way of operation held three advantages: the provision of U.S. goods to Europe without European dollar payments helped to narrow the dollar gap that strangled European reconstruction; the accumulated funds could be used for investments in long-term reconstruction (as happened in France and Germany) or for paying off a government's war debts (as in Great Britain); and the payments of the goods in local currencies helped to limit inflation by taking these funds temporarily out of circulation while they were held in the Special Accounts.[
This is the first time I have seen the host respond to the guests statements with exactly the same questions that were in my mind. Good job, Jack Farley.
The fact that large economies are dumping U.S dollars, alternatives to using the dollar for international settlements are emerging. because of sanctions being placed on "unfriendly" nations, BRICS Bank where governments can trade in their own currency, hoarding valuable commodities and Fed policy that manipulates interest rates / Q.E., etc..
Jack, I’m a 72 y.o. former CTA, social psychologist, and statistician. As Mel said, and you are too young to appreciate this fact, that about every 40-50 years, commodities, especially the metals, have been at parity with equity indices. The reason the indexes have continued to go up is that as industry and technology change, the exchanges change the mix of the index. The other reason I believe Mel, is that we are facing increasing resource depletion, which will eventually lead to a massive rise in inflation barring a collapse in population and demand. After trading the markets for 50 years, nothing is out of the realm of possibility.
So would you say invest in commodities? I'm always wary of the "there is a shortage of ..." line that pumpers keep using when trying to hype up the price of something. There never really is a shortage of anything.
Mel's explanation is clear. Time will tell if he's right. His thesis has similarities to David Hunter's, though his explanation is much more detailed. Thank you for this video.
Back around 2003, I took the SSA budget director to lunch. He said there were only IOU's from congess in the fund. About 2017, workers fica taxes into SSA became less than outlays to retirees and disabled. Congress had to sell treasuries to pay SSA outlays.
Right, income tax payers owe the SSA huge amounts of money which gets paid back when the SSA sells the US Treasuries it purchased with many decades of surplus social security taxes. SSA was loaning money to income tax payers until 2017. This is not any kind of deep dark secret. Everyone who has paid attention since the 1930s knows this is how it works.
Correct me if I’m wrong Jack but wouldn’t the bond market start to respond to more government debt sooner than a few years down the road. I mean it seems very obvious the government is currently trying to spend its way to a soft landing.
And you my friend... just hit on the real risk in the market that no one is really talking about. IMHO the short end gets slammed to zero very fast by the FED. We will be in a nasty recession which means the Goverment will need money to stimulate. Where do they get that money.. They get it by selling treasuries. But bond traders are going to want much higher yields in the middle to long end of the curve to take on the risk that is the massive 35 trillion debt we already have. History shows that during a recesssion debt doubles. Who the hell is going to lend the US Government money at these high levels without demanding a much higher yield. The problem with the higher yields that will be demanded will cause folks that need to refi (think businesses and CRE) get absolutly destroyed. This will cause the US and the rest of the world to go into a massive depression. The 10 year yield has broken out of its 40 year downtrend and is not uptending which means money is no longer free... like it has been for the last 20 years. This is the real risk. Should the Fed come in and be the buyer of last resort and montize the debt we get hyeprinflation or more specifically stagflation like we have never seen. I am count on it and am ready for it. The real trick is I could make money hand over fist but if it is in US Dollars it might not be worth anything if the dollar falls to zero. So as I make money I will buy assets that are outside of the US dollar... BTC, Gold and Silver... even if those are falling in price. Folks that are all in ... have all their money tied to the US Dollar might be in for a very rude awakening... when it dies and they roll out the CBDC wich is the exact reason why BTC is the best performing asset of all time. We might find that BTC at 70k a coin... is cheap. WE will see.
10:19 excellent..really. love the fact you pushed back. I dont believe the collapse narrative, I used to now i just dont. The government will literally re-write the rules. Also push back on the chart. Loved it.
Interestingly at the beginning of the pandemic when all the restaurants & small businesses were closing, the IRS published a report projecting tax receipts wouldn't recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2028. A lot of people seem to have missed that our govt knew the hole would be about 8 years, longer than most people imagined.
He's not factoring in the likelihood that the Central Bank and government will inflate away the debt this has happened throughout all history of Central Banking
Can Mel post his 200 book reading list for us? (Or assure us it is all in the bibliography of his book, which I am looking forward to reading). I enjoyed his mixture of a measured style, making concessions to Jack's pushbacks while holding to a strong thesis.
Disagree with the host in many ways. In many ways I see Finance afficionado as Heroin Addicts arguing over whose dope is the best. That said, everything in Economics is really comparisons and proportions. These are just numbers, especially at these current levels, with the more important factors being the policies that incited income then wealth inequality in a world of open financial systems allowing closed Financials systems. All the money printing, especially in emerging market local currency units is complicit in the heights we see in both debt and asset levels, especially for the reserve.
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I own it.
Superlative synopis. Thanks. 😊
Thank you gentlemen, Amazing insights!
It's fascinating when everyone looks at the same data & derives different conclusions. The host has an in-depth knowledge adding to the debate. My 2c is that although deflation is still a danger, inflation is the way forward. The Central banks & govts are stop gapping any system cracks as we adjust to the new regime of fiscal dominance. I believe we're at where they wanted to be last decade. Productive infrastructure builds are coming & debts inflated away. However, negotiating USA rival's in the BRICs is still the wild card.
Negotiate? 30:27 possible therefore it will surely be some sort of war. I wish it could be different. I believe
believe Determinism rules. Does it apply to nations? Time will say. 😵💫
Jack is doing an amazing job with thoughtful questions, he lets the speaker speaks without interruption and jab in counter-balance views and solid questions at appropriate time. Great job!
and then goes on for just a slong speaking about how his guest is wrong often expressing certain amounts of ignorance even if the guest is wrong. However the Guest is very good at playing 'yes but'
It is one of the places that really tries to make the guest articulate their position and its extremely informative. Hats off to you guys, great job Jack and Mel!
True but he doesn't do this (counterpoint with disagreements) with famous guests. He did this with this guy since he is more unknown. Wish he'd be more consistent -e.g. Lizz Ann from Schwab's interview
@@peblopadro gotcha! Now we know Mel's work!
Speaker has a firm grasp
The US economy cannot survive without continuous credit and debt creation. The FED will print more money and the average American will go just that much further in debt. Meanwhile, foreigners lust for the greenback. Their economies are in worse condition than the US... if that's even possible. Someone is going to be left holding the bag...
Gold might crash in a liquidity crunch, but many precious metal holders are prepared for this and unlikely to be forced sellers. The paper market would tank and possibly collapse. Hearing from an experienced investor who has overcome adversity is motivating. It can be scary when your portfolio turns red, but if you've invested in strong companies, stick to your goals and continue growing them
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
My fiduciary is Rebecca Noblett Roberts. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Thanks a lot for this recommendation. I just looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
So how exactly can we guard against the coming financial reset Like what are really the best strategies to make our portfolio recession proof against the incoming financial reset? I'm very worried about my $110k stock portfolio.
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.
I agree, having the right plan is priceless. My portfolio is well-suited for any market and recently doubled since early last year. My CFP and I are aiming for a seven-figure goal, which might take another year to achieve.
@@PatrickLloyd- Hello thanks for your response, I'm curious to give this a try. Please who is your advisor and how do I get in touch?
Finding financial advisors like Sophie Lynn Carrabus who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
It’s amazing really. We have a financial crisis, caused by greedy, reckless financial institutions. Congress passes legislation requiring those institutions to be less greedy and reckless. The institutions then lobby to have those restrictions removed, usually in the name of “remaining competitive”. This leads to another financial crisis. It’s completely predictable, and we have been doing this dance since the Great Depression almost 100 years ago.
Agree; the rules should be applicable to all banks - big or small. First; very few meaningful laws are passed and then this cycle of doing-undoing seems to support deregulation risking the economy and the faith in banks.
I believe using an investing advisor isn’t a terrific idea. In the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, I was literally experiencing horrible dreams before I spoke with an advisor. In conclusion, I was able to increase my initial investment from $320k to almost $2.5 million in 2011 with the aid of my advisor, and I later bought my first investment property.
I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Carol Vivian Constable for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
For those moving cash from money market to other assets given the Fed pivot, what are some income-producing assets (not physical real estate) that you are prioritizing over the next year to offset your loss in income?
Dividend Stock and REITs. As interest going down, I think these two asset types are going to be more attractive. Besides getting dividend income, I expect them to get appreciation in value as well.
Even if it just gives 4% dividend growth long term, long term inflation is just 3%. So, that’s still solid. As long as those divvies keep increasing, even in a recession, that’s what i need. I’m thinking huge percentage in SCHD, with smaller amounts in other areas not covered by the fund, like REITS and BDC’s.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial with an Experts guidance. I have 850k in equity, 75k cash earning 4% interest, 685k in roth ira, 120k in 401k, Gold and silver bars. age is 58. My advisr helped me realign my portfolio to my risk tolerance and it boomed shortly.
@@carolynrose1816 Well it seems like a lot of your interest is riding on your source, I could really get well accustomed to your viewpoint, get me involved.
I've stuck with ‘’Jennifer Leigh Hickman ” for about 9 years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.
Jack this is your best guest in a really really long time. Excellent thesis and discussion gentlemen. This is brilliant. Thank you.
☝👍
My ONLY counterargument is US foreign policy which is poking everybody to a war that eventually will start a world conflict. With that the outcome is even less predictable because it could be even much worse for US or potentially solve most of these issues for few more decades.
Your guest is spot on. I know it's a hard pill to swallow.
Definitley agree this site is WOKE ECONOMICS
Seriously Jack is literally lost this is so over his head.
@@iancassie9840 I agree the guest is correct. How can ouur host think banks like Silicon valley stuck with ling term bonds at below market rates not to mention deficit spending at massive nonlinear increase is not a problem.?
@@CycleBreakersCommunity Jack was born in the 90's into full blown socialism where everyone and everything is always bailed out. These kids all think the government has their back. Just wait until the wars escalate and the conscription papers start being sent out and see how fast these kids eyes bulge out of their heads.
The people that said the debt was untenable 40 years ago weren't wrong. We paid for it in devalued currency, decreased wages, and fourand a half generations of kids that live off their parents and the government.
You also paid in four and a half generations with no kids. We'll see in the coming decades how that works out.
How did you get four and a half generations in 40 years?
@@kevoreilly6557 two and a half generations were already alive 40 years ago. Silent, Baby, and half of Gen X. The other half of Gen X were still kids.
Yep endebting the citizens long term is what the government does. Banks were bailed out but not the american citizens. America is in a big financial mess.34+ trillion $ deficit..! Who will fix the financial crisis in the Us? The rich american and jewish oligarchs living outside the Us and having their stash on offshore accounts? The Us could start cleaning that Swamprat nest in Washington Dc and repatriate that untaxed money from those offshore accounts. The billions$/ trillions$ will help the struggling american folks. Poor people living on the streets and other working people living on a weekly paycheck to survive is a real joke in the wealthiest country in the world.
yeah, we paid in inflation.
Best speaker in a long while. Please have him back again!
I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful one has to have multiple income streams and so on, also investors should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow, joanna claire focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch
The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received $3900. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills
You trade with joanna claire too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family
I’m new at this, how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first until I decided to try. It’s huge returns is awesome! I can’t say much.
she's mostly on Telegrams, with the user name.
Don't get discouraged just because you can "only" invest like $100 per month. It can compound to tremendous wealth over the course of decades. The important thing is that you keep going!
My advice: to grow financially this year, invest. Saving is good, but investing elevates your finances. Thanks to my financial advisor, my portfolio is thriving, and I'm proud of last year's decisions.
Nice. People often underestimate financial advisors' importance. Over 50 years of data reveal that those who work with advisors typically earn more than those who go it alone. I've been fortunate to work with one for 13 years, resulting in a $3 million portfolio.
Your advisor must be really good. How I can get in touch? My retirement portfolio's decline is a concern, and I could use some guidance.
Her name is. 'Rachel Sarah Parrish’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing
What sets top investors apart from the rest? I've got $385K in equity from a home sale and I'm unsure whether to put it into stocks or wait for a more favorable market condition.
You're correct. I think the smartest way to go is to spread out your investments. By putting your money into different asset classes like bonds, real estate, and stocks from other countries, you can lower the risk if one part of the market goes bad.
Based on my own experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1 million in a well-diversified portfolio that has grown exponentially. It takes more than just money to invest in stocks; you must also be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands.
You seem to know the market better than we do, so that makes great sense. Who is the guide?
"Laurelyn Gross Pohlmeier," a well-known authority in this field. I would recommend looking into her credentials more because she has a great deal of expertise and is a great resource for anybody looking for advice on how to navigate the financial market.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
How does a person (or country) go bankrupt? Gradually, then suddenly. The last 50 years was the gradually and the next 5 is the suddenly...
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown. its important to seek the guidance of an expert
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
Her name is. ‘JENNIFER LEA JENSON’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Jennifer Lea Jenson is my financiall advsor too; I'm truly grateful for her dedication and transparency.
Is his office located in India or in Nigeria?
This is probably the 4th time I've watched this interview, over the past month. It's fantastic. This theme ties in strongly w/ what Brent Johnson has spoken about, since around 2019/20; as well as, more loosely with Steven VanMetre's content.
You missed one big point on why we cannot turn into Japan and run 220% debt to gdp....the US no longer manufactures goods, we have massive trade deficits and the rest of the world will not be willing to take our dollars
We certainly can. In fact I think that is exactly what is going to happen. This will cause us to go into stagflation like we have never seen. I am ready for it. I am not just ready for that scenario. I am also ready for a massive crash, a nasty recession, or even a depression. Now I am just waiting. We are getting very close to the end of our current monitary system..
Well we are trying to reshore our manufacturing base . Just let us drill for the oil that we need so that we can build everything else that we are going to need you.Green dummies are too stupid.
There was only one minor mention of BRICS, in regards to gold here. BRICS has the potential to upend everything America attempts. And that would be good for the majority of the earths population. Too bad murica, you lose....
@@gmw3083 I think you give the BRICs way too much credit. I think next we get a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. The whole world will be in a depression. Yes, this will make folks just trade commodities on their local currency instead of the US Dollar faster but you might be missing the fast that American's are the biggest consumers. If they stop standing (which is already happening). That will affect the whole world. So America will lose... it will be bad, but it is going to much worse for everyone else. To put it another away a nasty recession for America and a depression everywhere else. If America get a depression (very possible) the rest of the world is going to be very scary. I also, think you are way too bullish gold. You can't eat gold. And gold is not a good barter tool should the currencies collapse. Gold is a good hedge to inflation and a store of wealth. BTC is better on both of those things and it is not crazy heavy, hard to store. It is also no manipulated by central banks and government. There is a reason it is is the best performing asset of all time.
We have trade exports of 1.95 trillion, including oil., cars, produce, circuit boards, etc. Etc.
What a pleasure to see an intelligent conversation between well informed people. Thank you both 🙏
This was a great interview!
it really wasn't, good guest though.
Is this a good time to buy stocks? I know everyone is saying stocks are at a discount and all, but just how long will It take to recover, or am I better off putting my money elsewhere. I need a lot as rent, inflation alone eat up almost all of what I make, with dependents and other obligations included. Tbh it's an uncertain year for me.
people calling stocks momentum a flunk aren't considering the long run. The companies themselves have not changed, it's the market that changed. Steady as it goes, and it'll regroup in weeks.
If you are not too savvy with the market, it’s the best time! just buy and hold on strong companies or best you seek out areas within sectors that can help you sustain a balance in both growth and value overtime. In certain cases, it's even wiser to speak with a smartvestor to determine options best meant for you, I personally did this, and it works pretty well..
Well Joe , my question is which stocks sectors should I consider adding to my individual fidelity, I intend to hold on for a decade or more.
right now I’m being focused on renewable energy, semiconductors, Ai chips which will be hugely integral on every sectors in the coming years. an absolute power move right now.
you should add Gold and silver as well.
I'm mostly in cash and waiting for this market to re-level on the reality of our situation. Or are there any ways I can avoid a crunch and maximize my savings of $350k?
You'll be waiting a long time, trade the chart! learn how to create a basket of securities like an expert or seek guidance from one
The issue is most people have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not equipped for a crash that comes afterwards. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 300%, summing up nearly $1m, since covid outbreak to date.
How do I reach out to a financial advisor, my portfolio has been struggling since 2022 and I’ve been holding on by the skin of my teeth.
*Marissa Lynn Babula* is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
I must say, she appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
Thank you Mel and Jack. As a layman, this is one of the best interviews on Blockworks. There was an actual discussion!
The economic crisis and downturn are all the signs of 2008 market crash 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the US dollar or is it okay to move all emergency and savings to precious metals?
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million..
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I think Jack missed the point with the SS trust fund running out. The net trust fund outflows are already costing the federal government because they have to pay back the trust fund to pay the outflows since they already borrowed and spent everything in the fund. The SS trust owns IOUs from the feds that are payable on demand -- all previous net inflows have been borrowed and spent by the feds. The increasing pace of outflows is the issue because it means the feds have to borrow to fund those outflows since the feds don't have enough other income to pay back the SS trust fund. When the trust fund runs dry, if it causes a political event, it will also likely create a market event for psychological reasons if the devaluation has not already been priced in; if the devaluation gets priced in, it will either hasten the decline or be shocking enough that DC gets its act together and cuts out the fat.
Bottom line is they need to stop giving SS to millionaires and billionaires. You would think they would be embarrassed to take it. But no. Good example of the moral status of the country.
Then, get busy and do the hard thinking of more ways to fund the needs of seniors. 🇺🇸
Cutting outflows and increased taxation will only forestall the inevitable. Eventually, U.S. debit will no longer be desirable. The Fed will then become the lender/buyer of last resort, and to do so, the Fed will lend (create) currency into existence. That will create significant inflation. Jim Rickards, and a few others as well, have been predicting Treasury's need to revalue the gold. Jim suggests that $15k/oz will be necessary to "balance the books".
@@realpropertymangement7640 the Federal Reserve has accumulated losses in excess of twice their capital. Disregarding the losses, they have 200x leverage. Currently, the impairment on Fed liabilities is over 2%. It's already quite dire. The Fed needs to bail out the feds so the feds can bail out the Fed. Clown world to the max. Revaluing gold won't fix this, but I suspect that gold and bitcoins will probably explode in fiat terms once people realize that the USD monetary system is a pile of turds.
This show was amazing. I'm so thankful, to both of you. Keep up the great work
I'm convinced that investing 50k-100k in the right company before it goes big is more important than saving for retirement. However, picking the right company is so hard. I have around 200k in a HYSA and want to invest it. What are the best opportunities now?
I believe investors should start with S&P 500/ETFs for a solid foundation, then diversify across asset classes and maintain disciplined, regular investing to minimize risks and maximize growth.
The issue is most people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt, no offense. In general, Financial Consultants are ideal reps for investing jobs, and at firsthand encounter, since Jan.2020, amidst covid outbreak, my portfolio has yielded massively in ROI, summing up to 7-figures as of today
Amber Michelle Smith is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Your best advice is to stop posting this shit in the comment section!
Put it on the pass line and throw the dice!
Great guest and he is going to be correct
I agree the market is going to crash because people are broke can't spend and small businesses and retail locations are closing but knowing when it is going to crash is another thing all together
It's crashing now! Right before our very eyes! Fjb traitor to Anerica and true Americans! Fjb!
The interest on US debt is now to the point we cannot afford basic things like defense, SS, Medicare. This is how you know the game is almost up. Every day is worse than the prior day. This is just like the character in Office Space.
Interest is already 25% of receipts. That’s emerging market, IMF booking a plane ticket sort of levels
I can't imagine subscribing to this channel when the host is just like nope you're wrong, it's like talking to my dad about this. When you're used it being ignored you just sort of get comfortable.
Well said. And the longer it goes on the less the US Dollar actually is
the fed can always "afford" mandatory spending. the more privatized the industry the more inflation
Planned perhaps?
So refreshing to hear someone else talk about the exact points that I've been trying to scream from the rooftop the past year. Starting to feel less crazy hearing more and more discuss these dynamics
Treasury yields and other safe cash-like investments are raising high returns, yet most investors believe this is a good time to buy stocks than gold despite crash. I'd love to spread across $400k into profit yielding dividend equities and end the year well, but unsure of which to get acquire.
all the best, buying on sale is actually one of the best ways to invest in stocks, and advisors are ideally suited for such task
Right, I delegate my day-to-day investing to an advisor ever since suffering a major steep-down late 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, I'm semi-retired with barely 25% short of my $1m retirement goal after subsequent investments.
this is quite huge ! what have you invested in ? much more info needed please ...
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her an outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
As recession mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some economics sounded off on just how bad this downturn might be - and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $850k at the age of 60.
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked up Carol, wrote her explaining my financial market goals and scheduled a call
Hi All, thanks for any and all comments/interest - even those who disagree with me. Jack, I really appreciated the opportunity to speak with you and express my views to your generally well-informed audience. Best, Mel
Jack needs to let the guest talk more when he has such a great guest.
I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks will be appreciated.
Palantir, ARM and Nvidia are all still good buy, but what do I know I’m not a financial advisor lol
Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well-diversified portfolio that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in stocks, but you also need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
i'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
'Laurelyn Gross Pohlmeier' a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
I just googled her now and I'm really impressed with her credentials. I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
Great Interview by You and Fantastic Guest. Covered parts of history not usually seen on TH-cam!
Kudos...one of the more Intelligent economic discussions on TH-cam! Enjoyed it!
Great guest, great conversation, cheers!
Love how the host gives feedback and puts discussion back on path. Most guests are afraid of insulting guest. Truth is paramount, and I love it!
Excellent interview thank you really enjoyed the honesty and the accuracy of the two commentators and I appreciate the house keeping the guest statements accurate
Always great interviews Jack 👍🏻 - but what an interesting one. Mel has one of the most compelling suggestions on how we’re going from the old normal to whatever “crazy” that will eventually have to follow with this trajectory of ours. ⭐️
Forward Guidance you guys are just great. Thanks for your work ))
Outstanding interview! Just discovered your channel I'll be sure to lock in and watch it often. I particularly enjoyed the fact that the host was well versed and educated about financial National and global statistics. He frequently, but politely, challenges gas on a number of the guests statements. As part of the listing audience I really enjoyed that back and forth between the two as a hammered out either of their differences on a particular subject or hammered out their agreement. This is a very educational and very interesting video. Thank you to both of you thank you to both of you
Takes nads to put a time frame on a call. Bravo.
I’ve been friends with Mel for 35 years. That said, I’d like to correct one fact Mr. Mattison. Social security is not 6%. It’s 12.4%, split between employer and employee. If self employed, then you pay the full 12.4%, however 50% of the tax can offset income above the line to AGI. 🤓
Great interview - watching again after 3 months! Thanks.
Best interview I have seen. Great host and guest
Hes saying that the confidence in the dollar is running out. We can borrow to pay for anything, technically, but something has to give and that will be the dollar losing value quickly
Best interview of 2024, thank you!
Mel is amazing in his broad knowledge of markets and macro. He calmly answers all questions... Smart guy.
Just a heads up…gold has outperformed the S&P the 24 years. And now with deficit spending going parabolic I expect Gold to outperform the S&P the next 20 years
And BTC is the best performing asset of all time.
@@bpb5541except it hasn't even outperformed NVDA over the last decade
If something has been outperforming for 24 years, it's time to get out of it and into something that has not been already fairly valued.
GREAT interview!
Mel Mattison thank you for your time
Knowledgeable and gracious guest. Thank you.
The one point I will remember the most about this guest is the one where he said "the yield curve isn't really inverted, if you look at where mortgages are". I can't believe I never looked at it that way.
Great conversation. I love the hard contrarian push back for a balanced discussion.
I am at the beginning of my "investment journey", planning to put 85K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. Any advice?
Adding JEPI and JEPQ are smart additions in my opinion. As for staying committed to higher-risk investments, it's all about balancing your risk tolerance with your long-term goals.
The market is not necessarily a rollercoaster if you know your way around the market, there are various opportunities in the present market to accrue good profit, If you are not too savvy with the market, just buy and hold on strong companies with good earnings, or consult with advisors on ETFs and actively managed funds. that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 30% capital growth minus dividends.
I've been looking to get one, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your advis0r? I'll be happy to use some help.
Rachel Sarah Parrish is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
I think the sole burning question is that who or what will replace the dollar AND do you think the US will just allow the dollar be replaced without any chaos? I have heard all the arguments and timing about the dollar’s demise but no one has been able to make a valid argument about who & what will replace the US dollar or Euro Dollar?
People think the entrenched network effects of the dollar are just going to magically disappear. It doesn’t work that way. There is no other currency on Earth that could even theoretically replace the dollar as global reserve currency, no matter how badly it is managed by the US gov. Not gold. Not bitcoin. Not the Euro. Not the Yuan. Not anything the IMF could come up with. Nothing. This horse and pony show can keep on going for decades to come.
I do find it odd Mel is not calling for WWIII along with his thesis. He's not ruling it out just saying it's not required. About replacing the dollar, it would probably be whichever system appears most stable - like he was talking about higher amounts of gold acting as part of an anchor - of course this would include a multitude of other factors.
Anchor future money against hard assets So some bucket of gold, silver, uranium, lithium, whatever is real and not just paper
Saudi Arabia gets paid in yen for 10% of their total exports in LNG, Russia China trade is at 20% rubel-yen and quickly rising, and there is talk about BRICS starting up their own currency for international trade between those countries. I dont know about that, but what the dollar is going to be replaced by, if it fails, is what the dollar once replaced, pound sterling, local currencies, and so on.
The weaponization of the dollar was a horrible strategic move, China is going to run away from it, they already sold 53 billion of american bond securites this last month, and with the tradewar started, US inflation is naturally going to increase. The US have exported inflation due to the petro-dollars status and US moving industry to china, but keeping the domestic market, a TV is now 50% cheaper, a microwave, a breadtoaster, so you get deflation, but if you print money it evens out, giving a superstrong economy for America, but when the trend starts to move backwards the opposite happens, you have to lower the quantity of dollars in existance and import inflation to the USA.
The trade-war will, naturally, cause America to import inflation, making need for the m1-m3 supply of money to decrease, or it will cause hyperinflation. And when you import inflation the reverse of exportation of the inflation would need to happen, shrink money supply and increase interest rates. And there lies the crux, will a unites states citizen allow his real income drop 30-60% to balance the equation out to be neutral?
If you are a american, explain this, why did you allow china to take over as the worlds industrial powerhouse? You sold your production capacity for some easy money and started to rent it, and now you cant afford to rent it so you put up tariffs and trade barriers to avoid renting it... what even is that? Is it just "short-sighted economical gains and damn the next generation" - type of thinking?
A handful of digital currencies. CBDCs We will all be on digital assets. There won’t be a need for one “world currency”
you see.. they talk about about increasing of economy of certain counutry with devaluing local currency thus their exporting increases ... this is another reason why the dollar was accepted as the universal currency after ww2... whatever the case.. there is never option for reduction of working hours of people.. no matter the efficiency
Great interview you push not like most podcast
Great pod. Will look into Mel's book.
Removing the cap on social security taxable income would extend that timetable way out, and very politically viable. There are solutions to all this.
I know you're trying to be pragmatic and you're probably right. But stealing more of what people earned just to put a bandaid on decades completely criminal fiscal policy is just insult to injury.
It may be politically popular but it definitely isn’t politically viable IMO, those effected by raising the contribution cap have an outsized influence on politicians. Itll never be brought to the house floor let alone pass the house & senate
@@ryantyler4890We’ll see how the politicians feel when SS checks get cut by 25%.
just get rid of it. best outcome for the future.
@@smeff099 spoken like a true sociopath
Masterful, your dialectic skill is, Jack.
So fascinating. Great insight and interview
Excellent guest. Really enjoyed listening to his thoughts.
Amazing interview, Mel is right on
Great interview great guest
I love this type of financial history content
One of the best lessons I've had in a long while
Getting the facts correct would go a long way in establishing credibility
Marshal Plan Implementation;
The U.S. government did not give money directly to the participating countries so that they could buy whatever they thought they needed. Instead the U.S. delivered the goods and provided services, mainly transatlantic shipping, to the participating governments, which then sold the commodities to businesses and individuals who had to pay the dollar value of the goods in local currency ("counterparts") into so-called ERP Special Accounts that were set up at the country's central bank. This way of operation held three advantages: the provision of U.S. goods to Europe without European dollar payments helped to narrow the dollar gap that strangled European reconstruction; the accumulated funds could be used for investments in long-term reconstruction (as happened in France and Germany) or for paying off a government's war debts (as in Great Britain); and the payments of the goods in local currencies helped to limit inflation by taking these funds temporarily out of circulation while they were held in the Special Accounts.[
Really interesting, I think Mel is on it... Thanks, get him on again 👍
This is the first time I have seen the host respond to the guests statements with exactly the same questions that were in my mind. Good job, Jack Farley.
The fact that large economies are dumping U.S dollars, alternatives to using the dollar for international settlements are emerging. because of sanctions being placed on "unfriendly" nations, BRICS Bank where governments can trade in their own currency, hoarding valuable commodities and Fed policy that manipulates interest rates / Q.E., etc..
I wish they discussed the consumer. They are a critical part and are maxing out credit cards.
Jack, I’m a 72 y.o. former CTA, social psychologist, and statistician. As Mel said, and you are too young to appreciate this fact, that about every 40-50 years, commodities, especially the metals, have been at parity with equity indices. The reason the indexes have continued to go up is that as industry and technology change, the exchanges change the mix of the index. The other reason I believe Mel, is that we are facing increasing resource depletion, which will eventually lead to a massive rise in inflation barring a collapse in population and demand. After trading the markets for 50 years, nothing is out of the realm of possibility.
So would you say invest in commodities?
I'm always wary of the "there is a shortage of ..." line that pumpers keep using when trying to hype up the price of something.
There never really is a shortage of anything.
I met someone who knew John Maynard Keynes in the 1980s. He died since. Quentin Bell.
Great questions and great answers. Happens or not, right or not, the reasoning behind every comment is a pleasure to listen to 👍
Yes, but in 2 months, the ROW is losing trust in the USD. That's another tipping point.
1:15:52 the trick they are going to try and pull off. = Gaslight and lie to the public.
Another great guest Jack. Great job.
Great conversation…will buy the book….
As good as it gets'... thanks Jack and Mel.
Mel's explanation is clear. Time will tell if he's right. His thesis has similarities to David Hunter's, though his explanation is much more detailed. Thank you for this video.
Back around 2003, I took the SSA budget director to lunch. He said there were only IOU's from congess in the fund. About 2017, workers fica taxes into SSA became less than outlays to retirees and disabled. Congress had to sell treasuries to pay SSA outlays.
Right, income tax payers owe the SSA huge amounts of money which gets paid back when the SSA sells the US Treasuries it purchased with many decades of surplus social security taxes. SSA was loaning money to income tax payers until 2017. This is not any kind of deep dark secret. Everyone who has paid attention since the 1930s knows this is how it works.
Good stuff. Thanks.
Great informative video, great guest.
Correct me if I’m wrong Jack but wouldn’t the bond market start to respond to more government debt sooner than a few years down the road. I mean it seems very obvious the government is currently trying to spend its way to a soft landing.
And you my friend... just hit on the real risk in the market that no one is really talking about. IMHO the short end gets slammed to zero very fast by the FED. We will be in a nasty recession which means the Goverment will need money to stimulate. Where do they get that money.. They get it by selling treasuries. But bond traders are going to want much higher yields in the middle to long end of the curve to take on the risk that is the massive 35 trillion debt we already have. History shows that during a recesssion debt doubles. Who the hell is going to lend the US Government money at these high levels without demanding a much higher yield. The problem with the higher yields that will be demanded will cause folks that need to refi (think businesses and CRE) get absolutly destroyed. This will cause the US and the rest of the world to go into a massive depression. The 10 year yield has broken out of its 40 year downtrend and is not uptending which means money is no longer free... like it has been for the last 20 years. This is the real risk. Should the Fed come in and be the buyer of last resort and montize the debt we get hyeprinflation or more specifically stagflation like we have never seen. I am count on it and am ready for it. The real trick is I could make money hand over fist but if it is in US Dollars it might not be worth anything if the dollar falls to zero. So as I make money I will buy assets that are outside of the US dollar... BTC, Gold and Silver... even if those are falling in price. Folks that are all in ... have all their money tied to the US Dollar might be in for a very rude awakening... when it dies and they roll out the CBDC wich is the exact reason why BTC is the best performing asset of all time. We might find that BTC at 70k a coin... is cheap. WE will see.
Just bought quoz…looking forward to it.
Jack, it’s good to question/push your guests but keep your personal opinions out of the interview.
Thank you for saying this. This interviewer is very off-putting.
I disagree, I think that's what makes his disca little more interesting than others and I think the guests know his style by now.
The basics never change, however, what does change are the rules in the monetary games.
10:19 excellent..really. love the fact you pushed back. I dont believe the collapse narrative, I used to now i just dont. The government will literally re-write the rules. Also push back on the chart. Loved it.
Interestingly at the beginning of the pandemic when all the restaurants & small businesses were closing, the IRS published a report projecting tax receipts wouldn't recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2028. A lot of people seem to have missed that our govt knew the hole would be about 8 years, longer than most people imagined.
Thanks Jack
Great guest!
Great interview 👍
29:13 Bond mkt yields to rise 31:44 YCC: more bills than coupons
Great guest Jack.
He's not factoring in the likelihood that the Central Bank and government will inflate away the debt this has happened throughout all history of Central Banking
They will try like he'll. They have not succeeded yet.
Very interesting talk. Thank you.
Can Mel post his 200 book reading list for us? (Or assure us it is all in the bibliography of his book, which I am looking forward to reading). I enjoyed his mixture of a measured style, making concessions to Jack's pushbacks while holding to a strong thesis.
Disagree with the host in many ways. In many ways I see Finance afficionado as Heroin Addicts arguing over whose dope is the best. That said, everything in Economics is really comparisons and proportions. These are just numbers, especially at these current levels, with the more important factors being the policies that incited income then wealth inequality in a world of open financial systems allowing closed Financials systems. All the money printing, especially in emerging market local currency units is complicit in the heights we see in both debt and asset levels, especially for the reserve.