The Bond Market Has A Massive Problem | Nick Givanovic
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 มิ.ย. 2024
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:30 Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise
05:25 Potential For An Bond Auction Failure
06:44 U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons
21:49 Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions
25:13 Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish
26:13 VanEck Ad
27:14 Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?
28:43 Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia
33:13 Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?
39:10 Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)
54:24 Volatility In The Bond Market
01:02:21 Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks
01:07:49 The Labor Market
01:09:53 GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - บันเทิง
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Thank you both for this interview 😊 44% of my investment is in T-bills and another 48% in T-bonds
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Buying computer generated digital codes a.k.a. Bitcoin, that are registered / recorded in invisible virtual reality of cyberspace ...can it be the greatest idea of monetary investment into the future ??
This one is so important 😂 I had to listen to it at least 5 times
Investors often view bond or as safer bets for their portfolios. With the current economic climate, is this wise? I'm considering investing $200k but am unsure how to mitigate risk.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence I engaged the services of a true market strategist to help rejuvenate my $700k portfolio and boost performance and returns by 40% in a little over four years.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
The market's direction can swiftly change, with indexes frequently transitioning from a bear market to a bull market precisely when the news is most negative and investor sentiment reaches its lowest point.
For the average person, the strategies are fairly demanding. In actuality, most professionals who have the necessary abilities and knowledge to complete such occupations do so successfully.
If you do decide to make new purchases, have an exit strategy ready. Consider taking partial profits quickly to lock in some gains. I've been in regular contact with a financial analyst since covid. Investing in popular stocks is now quite straightforward; the issue is determining when to buy and sell. My advisor makes investment and exit decisions for my account, which has risen to more than $500K in less than a year.
I did enroll in a handful of trading classes, but they didn't help much. I've been advised to seek the advice of a competent financial counselor; how did you go about doing so?
Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I agree with you, the b0nd market does have a problem. the yield on bonds have decreased especially on the long end (30 and 10 Y) indicating that the demand is still there even if the supply remains huge showing a preference for safety. I'm still at a crossroad regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks
I agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about $200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost $673,000
Please will you be kind enough to share the details of the man that helped you?
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations as everyone's situation varies. Consider independent financial advisors like "MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH" I've worked with her for 9 years and highly recommend her. Check if she meets your criteria.
Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.
The ongoing sell-off in bonds and worries about an escalation in Middle East hostilities are weighing on the market, I want to diversify my stock portfolio of $400K but not sure on how to mitigate risk because my portfolio has been declining rapidly since Q2 2022
keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.
Yes, I have been in touch with an advis0r ever since the outbreak. With an initial starting reserve of $80k my advis0r chooses the entry and exit commands for my port-folio, which has grown to approximately $350k
That's quite incredible! My p0rtfolio has been performing poorly and i've lost a significant amount of money, therefore I could really use their advice. Who is the advis0r?
Her name is “VIVIAN CAROL GIOIA” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes.Thanks for sharing truly!
I am a Nurse and have been investing for a few years. I have reached a point where I could benefit from financial advice to improve my $200,000 portfolio for retirement, how do I maximize my ROI?
You didn't provide detailed information about your portfolio makeup. However, I recommend seeking guidance from a financial advisor for a well-informed portfolio restructuring.
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a fiduciary financial advisor to guide you, that’s what works for my wife and I. It's been 6 years now and we've grown our portfolio to $1m.
Your advisor seems competent. Could you share how I can reach out to them? I've recently sold some property and i am interested in investing in stocks.
*Jennifer Leigh Hickman* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you. I just checked her out on the web browser, She seems really proficient. I'll follow up with an email. Thanks for the lead.
If the cakes can't be sold , the baker has to eat its own cake.
We can't ignore the potential impact on portfolios. Bonds are often considered a safe haven, and if they crumble, investors like me might scramble. I’ve been investing for 11 yrs and my $1m portfolio has never been this depleted, how i do hedge this?
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
it's so obvious that things are not improving. I'm looking at high-yield dividend stocks. Selling 200k worth of stocks is stupid without reinvesting it. I might turn to cash soon if I don't invest it. Any particulars? (Buying bonds or CDs is not for me)
The economy and stocks are two different things these days
I think everyone needs a Margin of Safety in their portfolios and just remember, It's time in the market versus timing the market.
The market's instability makes DIY risky. You don't need to find the next NVDA to succeed in investing. Opt for top-notch ETFs, dividend aristocrats, and a trusted advisor. I've turned $480k into 33,000 in quarterly dividends using one, a major milestone.
…maybe you should be more Blue Chip…, just say’n
@sommersalt88 I've been considering but haven't been proactive. Can you recommend your advisor? Could really use some assistance.
I have a bit of a problem following all this. Would be great if you released bonds for dummies tutorial, explaining the auction process etc.
Thanks Jack - you have great summarizing skills that bring your audience along on the learning curve!
Smaller, speculative stocks have endured a historically weak stretch. Investors are betting that a turnaround is finally in the works. I’ve lost about $320k within a few months, how do i take advantage of the market turnaround?
There are many interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell stocks.
Yes true, I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this advsors. Please how can i get to your advsor?
Lauren Marie Ehlers is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I looked up her name online, went to her website, and sent her an email to arrange a meeting. I'm grateful.
Wherever i listen to this guy, he blows my mind all over again. Get him again soon! ❤
Im so thankful i found this show. How lucky are we to have this opportunity to learn from this individual and his guest. Thank you
Great session with Nick, Jack! I'm seeing "Sequential QTR over QTR earnings" we just had start to decline in growth and in margin while costs of operations are increasing for corporations and am trying to forecast how the 10yr yield will move as projections of GDP/growth get revised down for 2024 -25. So, I guess I am in the Stagflation camp but do believe assets will deflate with corrections in stocks and real estate as we move into recession. I agree with Jim Bianco when he thinks the 10yr US Treasury bond will be closer to 5.25%. Since most corporate LOC need to flip to a more costly cost of capital (by 300 bps), this will drive margins down further. I also do not think the Fed is restrictive today and they have no control of the long end. Kind of a mixed bag that makes valuing 'duration premium' difficult for the 10 year bond. With stagflation (with Asset bubble deflation), what would you predict for the 10yr bond yields? Struggling to conclude anything.
It’s rare to hear actual wisdom like this on fintwit or podcasts.
Bravo
This is so in-depth and informative! Thank you very much for sharing!
It would be great if Jack was in the thumbnail for his interviews. I always enjoy his interviews and I would watch the channel anytime I get the privilege to listen to him
Great interview. Nick is a class guest and his knowledge of markets and matter of factness continue to impress.
Fourprime token is listing soon, gonna be huge 🔥
Five prime token is out right after four prime token and is one prime more better. Save your money for five prime token.
Six prime is coming out after five prime and is one prime more. Sit back and hodl cash until the airdrop
@freeagent.87 I can't argue with your logic I will definitely not waste money on four prime but will wait for 6 prime in my mom's basement like a true cryptobro.
Great guest, great conversation, very informative.. cheers!
This has been so educational!
Good job interviewing, you asked timely questions to clarify. Thank you.
Very crisp and logical. No fluff
Nice is one of the best minds in bonds. Great guest and great interview 👍
Lovin the spectacles Jack & the content! 👍🏻💛👓
Amazingly educational for me. Thanks
Thanks for this professional talk. Education at it's master class on bonds
Yes this is the elephant in the room. What if the 10 year yield goes up and keeps going?
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
Would love to hear a guest discuss thoughts on whether they see the Fed headed toward mirroring the BoJ’s predicament of choosing between defending their currency or their bond market. Seems to me like BoJ is at forefront of externalities related to central banks intervening in markets.
This was a great guest.
I have 3 suggestions for the host that might improve these interviews:
1) Please work on making your comments and questions more succinct. You have a habit of rambling that often makes the point your trying to make difficult to follow. That is, when you’re just making a point. Thankfully, when asking a question you usually wrap up all the rambling with the simple question you should have asked in the first place. Also, if you worked on making your questions more succinct you wouldn’t have to talk so fast.
2) You often come across like you’re arguing with your guest as if you’re in a debate. My understanding is that you’re a journalist with little, or no, experience managing other people’s money. As a journalist you do need to challenge your guests but one doesn’t think you have the experience, or background, to debate them. This can be fixed by not using, “I believe …”, but a third person approach, “There are analysts who believe…”, “Some argue…”
3) Leave the humor for a different type of broadcast or at least be more careful in how you use it.
Check out sales at McDonald’s and Costa, and then check out credit card delinquency.
Thank you for sharing. Financial education is crucial today to show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.1BTC to a decent 11B TC in the space of a few weeks... I'm especially grateful to Russell Greener, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
He mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@RussellGreener.
I have seen so many recommendations about Russell Greener, his strategy must be good for people to talk about him….
Russell Greener is outstanding. The knowledge you will gain is for a life time. Now is the time to invest in your education for 2024.
Russell goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends. he explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market.
Awesome content! Get this guy back soon!
At what price?
Please explain the significance of bill/bond ratio.
The treasury is issuing more bills to reduce the amount of long term issuance. This works to limit the supply of duration treasuries, which is a form of rate manipulation. (prevents rates going higher)
Poor Yellen. Fiscal dominance sucks as in de-risking foreign policies. The cost of normalizing the empire
8:00 Great question.
And I get what he was saying in his answer,.. that 3 years ago banks funded with cheap Fed money at the very short term,.. and then bought the long end even if the spread was just 100 bps,.. but now they have to pay the Fed to borrow at a rate that is north of bonds yields.
And that would explain why the regionals failed last year and this,... and why BAC has, last I heard,.. about $100 billion in unrealized losses on their bond holdings.
Kind of makes you wonder why JPM didn't get stuck. Actually they did,. about half of what BAC has.
But that doesn't mean this isn't a great time to buy bonds by non-banks,... or even banks like JPM who don't paysquat for deposits. Especially if you can hit the peak of rates.
If the banks or anyone else buys the zero coupon on the 20 or 30 year,... they could triple their money if rates go back to near zero.
And if it just stays flat,.. which is unsustainable for the government interest payments on the debt,.. then they earn 4 or 5% with very little risk.
The risk would be that yields might go higher,.. which would be even more unsustainable for government debt,.. and would certainly break something causing the Fed to have to drop rates.
I can guarantee if we can't get a government that will work on balancing the budget,... and we continue on the current insane deficits and debt don't matter MMT nonsense,.. we'll have to become like Japan where the government buys 90% of the debt and they enact yield curve control.
And that's unsustainable.
At some pint the chickens will come home to roost.
Stopped at about 11:00 to post this,.. let's see if this guy,.. I've never heard of has anything good to hear.
Turned out to be a good discussion,.. although his preferring equities at this point at all time highs with such a narrow breadth over bonds which are rallying (this was pre CPI,.. but CPI helped the rally) is counter intuitive.
And also have made good returns selling way out of the money puts on GME and AMC.
And I wasn't involved in the mania a few years ago and not a meme stock gambler,.. but the wat OTM puts were paying a couple hundred percent on an annualized basis,... ie several percent on few says to weekly basis.
When on the companies I normally sell the puts on when IV is high, pay 1 to 2% in a week or about 50% to 100% on an annualized basis.
The timing on this is epic.
If FourPrime Token has the growth as it has atm then no doubts it will dominate the industry
Scam
Thank you
Nick is fantastic..
Depends on whom original investment bond in early stage they still have certain value is if get good auctions price so on cryptocurrency still unknown future we are just start in first step not affordable any mistake ok
For the first 7 month of the 2024, federal debts interest payment is $514billion. It is more than defense spending.
what would be the dollar currency physically used in all type of banned activities ; practically speaking it is much easier to carry 1 mn $ than to carry gold equivalent. Some light on my observation would be highly appreciated
For your info: The Fed only buys from primary dealers, not directly from the Treasury.
How can stocks keep performing if US bonds crash? That makes zero sense because it is the end of the world economy scenario!
This video marks top on long term rates. Notice the thesis divergence on duration between this gentlesir and Lacy Hunt...
Roughly £120k in my portfolio are in tech/TSLA stocks, can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation.
stocks are overrated now. buy gold , 5% in crypto . rest in cash. and wait for the stock/property/land. price to crash . but them after it stops dropping for 7 - 12 months at the bottom.
I successfully trade in my own portfolio, and also follow others because I'm interested in their strategies. I realized I've got better at managing the trader's strategies too. There's nothing wrong at all with having someone far more dedicated manage some of your portfolio.
I have been thinking about how to grow my reserve by atleast 40% or more within months. I will be grateful if you can give tips or anything on how to make good market picks and how I can get my portfolio diversified and balanced in order to meet up my target..
Thanks for the info, its highly appreciated.
Interesting ideals! Few times have been coming across this..... but most individuals won't accept This truth but allow them, they'll understand when They Become bankrupt as a Result Of unavoidable losses.
There will be no auction failures, bank legislation can always be changed to accommodate the government's needs
I am regretting not taking advantage of Nvidia's boom ever since but still grateful i kept money in the money market. With about $150k maturing soon, i plan investing in the stock market. What stocks should I look into to average down in and safely grow my money?
Thats when you hire someone to manage your money. You need a (CFP) straight up! personally, I would invest in ETF's and also love investing in individual stocks.
I took charge of my portfolio but faced losses in 2022. Realizing the need for a change, I sought advice from a fiduciary-advisor. Through restructuring and diversification with dividend stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds, and MBS, my $1.2M portfolio surged, yielding an annualized gain of 128%.
I agree 100% the current terrain is no joke for the average person and even the elitist investors make mistakes during inflection poiints. Get a fa who can be fiduciary to your longterm with proven strategies. That's why I have Monica as my estate planner.
Your advisor must be really good, how I can get in touch with them as my porfolio isnt doing so well.
‘Monica Mary Strigle’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
This might be confirmation bias, but Nick is affirming my investments in a TIPS ladder and shifting from T-Bills to levered long 2 year via TUA ETF.
Are we talking about bons growth against inflation?
At least its pedictable. This is the first Ive ever heard of bonds reducing by 20%.
At some point, boomers haved kicked off and Gen X are the bulk of the retirees, of which there aren't very many. Doesn't the Federal balance shift into surplus at that point?
2040.
So run these deficits until then
No politicians will fill any surplus w spending the problem is in the structure sure that’s a limiting factor the problem is in the issuance and/or spending of the govt people vote for free stuff till they make us amerizuella or we actually fix the problem and inflate as we have and cut hard which is austerity. IMO always the slow and steady decline of civilization
Great get
"The US market remains robust, resilient, or whatever you want to call it"... Oh, I know another word that describes it more accurately, even two actually...
One thing for sure is interest rate will be going up as the only way to attract buyer and this is be a major problem for the economy .
The purpose of investment is profit? Vs risk...and all investments requires anticipation of future. One cannot not do otherwise
Why would anyone buy debt from a collapsing empire? 😮
Because every competitor is collapsing faster
@@timthetiny7538 because that's how equities are inflated -- on cheap credit.... but take away the punch bowl and a 'liquidity' crisis is the result... At this point, that same debt you 'ridicule' will change to 'begging' for it ...
@@const71 you replied to the wrong person
@@timthetiny7538 oh yeah ... hahah thx -- but i think this guest is wrong and once the great deflation hits us, he will realize it too
@@const71Have you forgotten how massively and quickly the Federal Reserve monetized debt during the 2008 and 2020 recessions? Then throw in all the fiscal spending that the government enacted to boost the economy. And that was in a geopolitical era when we could count on foreigners buying all that massively increasing US debt.
There’s no argument that we will have a recession. To which recent history clearly shows the Fed will respond with massive monetization and the Federal government with massive fiscal spending. Yes, when the recession starts your long term treasury bonds should appreciate and the Fed will probably cap long term Treasury rates. But, any deflation will be very short lived.
How can interest rates go down when the fed has to sell 1 trillion dollars of debt every 3 months. People will not buy them without high interest rates.
You’re forgetting that there is more money in the economy every 3 months than before, some of it inflationary, but some of it from actual economic activity. There is almost 300 trillion just in the us of assets, and there are foreign buyers of that debt as well.
Buying computer generated digital codes a.k.a. Bitcoin, that are registered / recorded in invisible virtual reality of cyberspace ...can it be the greatest idea of monetary investment into the future ??
Why wouldnt they buy them, they pay a hefty amount of interest (short duration), the thing which was missing in them for a very long time. What I actually dont get it is why are people still buying up stocks.
Central banks and banks(use as collateral to lend more)
The market can stay irrational longer than you cam stay liquid.
I have already said that I am going to buy as many as I can as long as I can 👀👂👂✨
why not just buy commodities? All this bond math seems unnecessary
Stocks over bond yeah. What is the ratio of stocks over GDP? 190% Bubble!
I thought it was against the law for the fed to buy directly from the Treasury.
Fun fact: Federal Reserve liabilities have about a 2% impairment due to realized losses in excess of their capital.
FED will. At exactly 79 USD for TLT. WE ARE VERY CLOSE.
Supply is going to overwhelm the bond market due to highly irresponsible spending by the Federal government .
At the same time the Federal government is pursuing a sanctions policy that is and will cause the BRICs countries to avoid buying and in some instances actual sell bonds .
But this problem is not isolated to bonds . The higher the interest rate the lower the valuation of stocks and the more expensive it is for companies to buy back stock .
P/Es are much too high for the largest stocks .
Sell duration in bonds and sell high equity valuation .
Thanks for the update. I bet those Fourprime token holders aren't too worried about the markets.
Grécia, Portugal Islândia...they will by ...
So keep buying stocks and short bonds here? An ultimate contrarian call i think
if the govt is buying more equity soon those listed companies will go belly up as it a debts
Jack missed the inverted yield curve, even with the glasses on....
My favorite parts is you chose one of the people who put us in this situation and expect him to say anything good about bonds when he is a vicious financier for stocks.
Won’t these guys never talk against the trades they have on 😅 dizzying the complexity but to these guys, simplicity 😄
The GDP's good because a lot (a lot!) of borrowed money is injected in it by the government to sustain it. Can't have the economy floundering in electoral year, right? What will happen when that money stops flowing because at one point it will become unsustainable as JP claimed. 2025? Later? How will that affect markets and banks? Recession in sight?
Lady and gentleman , postive yield curve coming means recession with rate cut by Fed. party of stock bull market will be over
Terrible time to buy bonds. T bills short duration only.
And best time to buy short duration, up to 1-year
All bad news is priced in though, and economy is likely already in recession. Thus the long end is the place to be. Zirp is coming back
@@derekmason1790 no gucking way. Zirp is coming back? Zirp is coming back in WW3? Nice, we will see that
24:00 the fed definitely isn’t allowed to buy directly from treasury, it buys from dealers. This is written in their charter and the whole purpose is to discourage direct monetization of debt.
I’m surprised these guys don’t know that.
Actually, they are. When they invest the excess of maturing bonds under QT (60/bn/month now, 25bn from June ceiling), they buy direct from Treasury via TAAPS at the non-comp auction average, with the UST issuing extra to the Fed. And that is what was being discussed. Google it.
Not correct. These are QT reinvests and they do buy them direct from UST. Google it. These are add ons to the normal auction sizes.
Military industries complexes could buy uo ...
Who’s actually buying treasury bonds, IMF, WB , your pension funds? Do 10 and 30 year bonds make any sense if all the D-dollarization continues.
Who? Me. I'm the buyer of treasuries here. U.s. citizen. Old enough to know how to play these cycles. Great time to buy 5-10 yr treasuries just like 2007 before the crash. I don't need to borrow money to invest. I have money already. No leverage so no risk.
Cold water on the face of the duration bull 🚿
Banks with need for regulatory capital duh
Dont worry the managers of MMT must have an answer for the markets lack of interest in toilet paper? They have an answer for everything else.
Federal reserve act does not permit the fed to buy direct, they have to go via the secondary market.
If USA can sell used cruse missiles, Fictitious nuclear subs, fighter aircraft that can never be built to Australia, USA would be on a winner if they tell Australia " help us out here and buy bonds for us". Would be a deal.
Musinformation thank you
dont worry, UK,Europe, Australia, New Zealand n Canada will buy usa bond.lets keep America n western countries great n green with green paper.
This not new news! Been said for decades now but most didn’t listen
Been collecting the FourPrime Token this cycle as that has the right place in this time
Who is going to pay back the interest other words Free Money 💰
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Where are the Bond Vigilantes? Has this administration bought them off? 😆😅🤣🙃
gold , silver 🚀