The Bond Market Has A Massive Problem | Nick Givanovic

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 มิ.ย. 2024
  • Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
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    Timestamps:
    00:00 Introduction
    00:30 Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise
    05:25 Potential For An Bond Auction Failure
    06:44 U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons
    21:49 Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions
    25:13 Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish
    26:13 VanEck Ad
    27:14 Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?
    28:43 Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia
    33:13 Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?
    39:10 Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)
    54:24 Volatility In The Bond Market
    01:02:21 Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks
    01:07:49 The Labor Market
    01:09:53 GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks
    __
    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
  • บันเทิง

ความคิดเห็น • 332

  • @BlockworksHQ
    @BlockworksHQ  20 วันที่ผ่านมา +12

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    • @georgelien
      @georgelien 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Thank you both for this interview 😊 44% of my investment is in T-bills and another 48% in T-bonds

    • @Fr.VeniceLAI
      @Fr.VeniceLAI 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Buying computer generated digital codes a.k.a. Bitcoin, that are registered / recorded in invisible virtual reality of cyberspace ...can it be the greatest idea of monetary investment into the future !!

    • @tedr5651
      @tedr5651 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

      r😂

    • @Fr.VeniceLAI
      @Fr.VeniceLAI 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Buying computer generated digital codes a.k.a. Bitcoin, that are registered / recorded in invisible virtual reality of cyberspace ...can it be the greatest idea of monetary investment into the future ??

    • @georgelien
      @georgelien 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      This one is so important 😂 I had to listen to it at least 5 times

  • @HarrisRyan-oy8eo
    @HarrisRyan-oy8eo วันที่ผ่านมา +608

    Investors often view bond or as safer bets for their portfolios. With the current economic climate, is this wise? I'm considering investing $200k but am unsure how to mitigate risk.

    • @Debbie.Burton
      @Debbie.Burton วันที่ผ่านมา +5

      Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown

    • @judynewsom1902
      @judynewsom1902 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence I engaged the services of a true market strategist to help rejuvenate my $700k portfolio and boost performance and returns by 40% in a little over four years.

    • @EverlyndPerez
      @EverlyndPerez วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.

    • @RickWatson-xu6gw
      @RickWatson-xu6gw วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

    • @EverlyndPerez
      @EverlyndPerez วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      *Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

  • @Mr-sweeny
    @Mr-sweeny 10 วันที่ผ่านมา +604

    The market's direction can swiftly change, with indexes frequently transitioning from a bear market to a bull market precisely when the news is most negative and investor sentiment reaches its lowest point.

    • @Nernst96
      @Nernst96 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      For the average person, the strategies are fairly demanding. In actuality, most professionals who have the necessary abilities and knowledge to complete such occupations do so successfully.

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      If you do decide to make new purchases, have an exit strategy ready. Consider taking partial profits quickly to lock in some gains. I've been in regular contact with a financial analyst since covid. Investing in popular stocks is now quite straightforward; the issue is determining when to buy and sell. My advisor makes investment and exit decisions for my account, which has risen to more than $500K in less than a year.

    • @PhilipDunk
      @PhilipDunk 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I did enroll in a handful of trading classes, but they didn't help much. I've been advised to seek the advice of a competent financial counselor; how did you go about doing so?

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..

    • @PhilipDunk
      @PhilipDunk 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

      She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

  • @AmithKaury
    @AmithKaury 8 วันที่ผ่านมา +462

    I agree with you, the b0nd market does have a problem. the yield on bonds have decreased especially on the long end (30 and 10 Y) indicating that the demand is still there even if the supply remains huge showing a preference for safety. I'm still at a crossroad regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k

    • @MickyGlover
      @MickyGlover 8 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks

    • @Jamesjerome0
      @Jamesjerome0 8 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about $200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost $673,000

    • @donovantobs
      @donovantobs 8 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Please will you be kind enough to share the details of the man that helped you?

    • @Jamesjerome0
      @Jamesjerome0 8 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations as everyone's situation varies. Consider independent financial advisors like "MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH" I've worked with her for 9 years and highly recommend her. Check if she meets your criteria.

    • @donovantobs
      @donovantobs 8 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.

  • @jerrycampbell-ut9yf
    @jerrycampbell-ut9yf 3 วันที่ผ่านมา +135

    The ongoing sell-off in bonds and worries about an escalation in Middle East hostilities are weighing on the market, I want to diversify my stock portfolio of $400K but not sure on how to mitigate risk because my portfolio has been declining rapidly since Q2 2022

    • @larrypaul-cw9nk
      @larrypaul-cw9nk 3 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      keep yourself safe by knowing when to sell stocks in order to limit losses. I advise consulting a CFP or other professional for advice.

    • @Mrshuster
      @Mrshuster 3 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Yes, I have been in touch with an advis0r ever since the outbreak. With an initial starting reserve of $80k my advis0r chooses the entry and exit commands for my port-folio, which has grown to approximately $350k

    • @sabastinenoah
      @sabastinenoah 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

      That's quite incredible! My p0rtfolio has been performing poorly and i've lost a significant amount of money, therefore I could really use their advice. Who is the advis0r?

    • @Mrshuster
      @Mrshuster 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Her name is “VIVIAN CAROL GIOIA” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

    • @sabastinenoah
      @sabastinenoah 3 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes.Thanks for sharing truly!

  • @JordanReam8186
    @JordanReam8186 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +514

    I am a Nurse and have been investing for a few years. I have reached a point where I could benefit from financial advice to improve my $200,000 portfolio for retirement, how do I maximize my ROI?

    • @WestonScally7614
      @WestonScally7614 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      You didn't provide detailed information about your portfolio makeup. However, I recommend seeking guidance from a financial advisor for a well-informed portfolio restructuring.

    • @SageMadsen
      @SageMadsen 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a fiduciary financial advisor to guide you, that’s what works for my wife and I. It's been 6 years now and we've grown our portfolio to $1m.

    • @Redwood4040
      @Redwood4040 5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Your advisor seems competent. Could you share how I can reach out to them? I've recently sold some property and i am interested in investing in stocks.

    • @SageMadsen
      @SageMadsen 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      *Jennifer Leigh Hickman* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

    • @PowerRuckelshaus
      @PowerRuckelshaus 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you. I just checked her out on the web browser, She seems really proficient. I'll follow up with an email. Thanks for the lead.

  • @BrandyHeng007
    @BrandyHeng007 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +24

    If the cakes can't be sold , the baker has to eat its own cake.

  • @codeblue11
    @codeblue11 16 วันที่ผ่านมา +334

    We can't ignore the potential impact on portfolios. Bonds are often considered a safe haven, and if they crumble, investors like me might scramble. I’ve been investing for 11 yrs and my $1m portfolio has never been this depleted, how i do hedge this?

    • @Tonyham198
      @Tonyham198 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.

    • @yeslahykcim
      @yeslahykcim 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I agree, having a brokerage advisor for investing is genius! Amidst the financial crisis in 2008, I was really having investing nightmare prior touching base with a advisor. In a nutshell, i've accrued over $2m with the help of my advisor from an initial $350k investment.

    • @Jadechurch-ql3do
      @Jadechurch-ql3do 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one

    • @yeslahykcim
      @yeslahykcim 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @brianwhitehawker1756
      @brianwhitehawker1756 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.

  • @gagnepaingilly
    @gagnepaingilly 18 วันที่ผ่านมา +201

    it's so obvious that things are not improving. I'm looking at high-yield dividend stocks. Selling 200k worth of stocks is stupid without reinvesting it. I might turn to cash soon if I don't invest it. Any particulars? (Buying bonds or CDs is not for me)

    • @AntagonisticAsian
      @AntagonisticAsian 18 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      The economy and stocks are two different things these days

    • @84gaynor
      @84gaynor 18 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      I think everyone needs a Margin of Safety in their portfolios and just remember, It's time in the market versus timing the market.

    • @sommersalt88
      @sommersalt88 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

      The market's instability makes DIY risky. You don't need to find the next NVDA to succeed in investing. Opt for top-notch ETFs, dividend aristocrats, and a trusted advisor. I've turned $480k into 33,000 in quarterly dividends using one, a major milestone.

    • @Curbalnk
      @Curbalnk 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

      …maybe you should be more Blue Chip…, just say’n

    • @velayuthman
      @velayuthman 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @sommersalt88 I've been considering but haven't been proactive. Can you recommend your advisor? Could really use some assistance.

  • @juicymelodic
    @juicymelodic 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +8

    I have a bit of a problem following all this. Would be great if you released bonds for dummies tutorial, explaining the auction process etc.

  • @jerryhartman4528
    @jerryhartman4528 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    Thanks Jack - you have great summarizing skills that bring your audience along on the learning curve!

  • @lucasanderson8993
    @lucasanderson8993 16 วันที่ผ่านมา +219

    Smaller, speculative stocks have endured a historically weak stretch. Investors are betting that a turnaround is finally in the works. I’ve lost about $320k within a few months, how do i take advantage of the market turnaround?

    • @wellsHannahh
      @wellsHannahh 16 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      There are many interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell stocks.

    • @tommychestnut5335
      @tommychestnut5335 16 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Yes true, I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.

    • @stevensmiddlemass2072
      @stevensmiddlemass2072 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of this advsors. Please how can i get to your advsor?

    • @tommychestnut5335
      @tommychestnut5335 16 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      Lauren Marie Ehlers is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

    • @stevensmiddlemass2072
      @stevensmiddlemass2072 16 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      I looked up her name online, went to her website, and sent her an email to arrange a meeting. I'm grateful.

  • @MakuLabs
    @MakuLabs 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    Wherever i listen to this guy, he blows my mind all over again. Get him again soon! ❤

  • @Fddhjdthnbcfseyhvg
    @Fddhjdthnbcfseyhvg 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Im so thankful i found this show. How lucky are we to have this opportunity to learn from this individual and his guest. Thank you

  • @johnmerlino7011
    @johnmerlino7011 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Great session with Nick, Jack! I'm seeing "Sequential QTR over QTR earnings" we just had start to decline in growth and in margin while costs of operations are increasing for corporations and am trying to forecast how the 10yr yield will move as projections of GDP/growth get revised down for 2024 -25. So, I guess I am in the Stagflation camp but do believe assets will deflate with corrections in stocks and real estate as we move into recession. I agree with Jim Bianco when he thinks the 10yr US Treasury bond will be closer to 5.25%. Since most corporate LOC need to flip to a more costly cost of capital (by 300 bps), this will drive margins down further. I also do not think the Fed is restrictive today and they have no control of the long end. Kind of a mixed bag that makes valuing 'duration premium' difficult for the 10 year bond. With stagflation (with Asset bubble deflation), what would you predict for the 10yr bond yields? Struggling to conclude anything.

  • @bombers7878
    @bombers7878 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    It’s rare to hear actual wisdom like this on fintwit or podcasts.
    Bravo

  • @jingmu1289
    @jingmu1289 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

    This is so in-depth and informative! Thank you very much for sharing!

  • @MrMustachehead
    @MrMustachehead 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    It would be great if Jack was in the thumbnail for his interviews. I always enjoy his interviews and I would watch the channel anytime I get the privilege to listen to him

  • @budivoogt491
    @budivoogt491 18 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Great interview. Nick is a class guest and his knowledge of markets and matter of factness continue to impress.

  • @KishanVaghele
    @KishanVaghele 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +125

    Fourprime token is listing soon, gonna be huge 🔥

    • @zuluwarrior2888
      @zuluwarrior2888 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Five prime token is out right after four prime token and is one prime more better. Save your money for five prime token.

    • @freeagent.87
      @freeagent.87 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Six prime is coming out after five prime and is one prime more. Sit back and hodl cash until the airdrop

    • @zuluwarrior2888
      @zuluwarrior2888 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @freeagent.87 I can't argue with your logic I will definitely not waste money on four prime but will wait for 6 prime in my mom's basement like a true cryptobro.

  • @Julian-pj2zi
    @Julian-pj2zi 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Great guest, great conversation, very informative.. cheers!

  • @jumpingthroughhoops9737
    @jumpingthroughhoops9737 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    This has been so educational!

  • @mzee302
    @mzee302 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Good job interviewing, you asked timely questions to clarify. Thank you.

  • @dotbasing
    @dotbasing 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Very crisp and logical. No fluff

  • @philmaz14
    @philmaz14 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Nice is one of the best minds in bonds. Great guest and great interview 👍

  • @dave8212
    @dave8212 17 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Lovin the spectacles Jack & the content! 👍🏻💛👓

  • @georgitsonev8837
    @georgitsonev8837 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Amazingly educational for me. Thanks

  • @morrisfamily7707
    @morrisfamily7707 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks for this professional talk. Education at it's master class on bonds

  • @bpb5541
    @bpb5541 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Yes this is the elephant in the room. What if the 10 year yield goes up and keeps going?

  • @detectiveofmoneypolitics
    @detectiveofmoneypolitics 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊

  • @user-wf4el1gx3n
    @user-wf4el1gx3n 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Would love to hear a guest discuss thoughts on whether they see the Fed headed toward mirroring the BoJ’s predicament of choosing between defending their currency or their bond market. Seems to me like BoJ is at forefront of externalities related to central banks intervening in markets.

  • @JustBob-sw4rf
    @JustBob-sw4rf 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

    This was a great guest.
    I have 3 suggestions for the host that might improve these interviews:
    1) Please work on making your comments and questions more succinct. You have a habit of rambling that often makes the point your trying to make difficult to follow. That is, when you’re just making a point. Thankfully, when asking a question you usually wrap up all the rambling with the simple question you should have asked in the first place. Also, if you worked on making your questions more succinct you wouldn’t have to talk so fast.
    2) You often come across like you’re arguing with your guest as if you’re in a debate. My understanding is that you’re a journalist with little, or no, experience managing other people’s money. As a journalist you do need to challenge your guests but one doesn’t think you have the experience, or background, to debate them. This can be fixed by not using, “I believe …”, but a third person approach, “There are analysts who believe…”, “Some argue…”
    3) Leave the humor for a different type of broadcast or at least be more careful in how you use it.

  • @MARTINA-gc3tq
    @MARTINA-gc3tq 18 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Check out sales at McDonald’s and Costa, and then check out credit card delinquency.

  • @marevafaucheux8245
    @marevafaucheux8245 16 วันที่ผ่านมา +55

    Thank you for sharing. Financial education is crucial today to show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.1BTC to a decent 11B TC in the space of a few weeks... I'm especially grateful to Russell Greener, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..

    • @marevafaucheux8245
      @marevafaucheux8245 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      He mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.

    • @marevafaucheux8245
      @marevafaucheux8245 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @RussellGreener.

    • @WeldonS.Wehrle
      @WeldonS.Wehrle 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I have seen so many recommendations about Russell Greener, his strategy must be good for people to talk about him….

    • @Teodor664
      @Teodor664 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Russell Greener is outstanding. The knowledge you will gain is for a life time. Now is the time to invest in your education for 2024.

    • @Stacey518
      @Stacey518 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Russell goes deeper than just looking at surface-level trends. he explores technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive perspective on the market.

  • @ziomudru
    @ziomudru 17 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Awesome content! Get this guy back soon!

  • @ortforshort7652
    @ortforshort7652 20 วันที่ผ่านมา

    At what price?

  • @matthewokeefe2286
    @matthewokeefe2286 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Please explain the significance of bill/bond ratio.

    • @netizenkane2230
      @netizenkane2230 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

      The treasury is issuing more bills to reduce the amount of long term issuance. This works to limit the supply of duration treasuries, which is a form of rate manipulation. (prevents rates going higher)

    • @ssuwandi3240
      @ssuwandi3240 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Poor Yellen. Fiscal dominance sucks as in de-risking foreign policies. The cost of normalizing the empire

  • @jcgoogle1808
    @jcgoogle1808 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    8:00 Great question.
    And I get what he was saying in his answer,.. that 3 years ago banks funded with cheap Fed money at the very short term,.. and then bought the long end even if the spread was just 100 bps,.. but now they have to pay the Fed to borrow at a rate that is north of bonds yields.
    And that would explain why the regionals failed last year and this,... and why BAC has, last I heard,.. about $100 billion in unrealized losses on their bond holdings.
    Kind of makes you wonder why JPM didn't get stuck. Actually they did,. about half of what BAC has.
    But that doesn't mean this isn't a great time to buy bonds by non-banks,... or even banks like JPM who don't paysquat for deposits. Especially if you can hit the peak of rates.
    If the banks or anyone else buys the zero coupon on the 20 or 30 year,... they could triple their money if rates go back to near zero.
    And if it just stays flat,.. which is unsustainable for the government interest payments on the debt,.. then they earn 4 or 5% with very little risk.
    The risk would be that yields might go higher,.. which would be even more unsustainable for government debt,.. and would certainly break something causing the Fed to have to drop rates.
    I can guarantee if we can't get a government that will work on balancing the budget,... and we continue on the current insane deficits and debt don't matter MMT nonsense,.. we'll have to become like Japan where the government buys 90% of the debt and they enact yield curve control.
    And that's unsustainable.
    At some pint the chickens will come home to roost.
    Stopped at about 11:00 to post this,.. let's see if this guy,.. I've never heard of has anything good to hear.
    Turned out to be a good discussion,.. although his preferring equities at this point at all time highs with such a narrow breadth over bonds which are rallying (this was pre CPI,.. but CPI helped the rally) is counter intuitive.
    And also have made good returns selling way out of the money puts on GME and AMC.
    And I wasn't involved in the mania a few years ago and not a meme stock gambler,.. but the wat OTM puts were paying a couple hundred percent on an annualized basis,... ie several percent on few says to weekly basis.
    When on the companies I normally sell the puts on when IV is high, pay 1 to 2% in a week or about 50% to 100% on an annualized basis.

  • @HouseofTheRisingFunk
    @HouseofTheRisingFunk 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The timing on this is epic.

  • @parameshroy2033
    @parameshroy2033 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +108

    If FourPrime Token has the growth as it has atm then no doubts it will dominate the industry

  • @mattanderson6672
    @mattanderson6672 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you

  • @computerman9580
    @computerman9580 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Nick is fantastic..

  • @user-wt3ie5sc8y
    @user-wt3ie5sc8y 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Depends on whom original investment bond in early stage they still have certain value is if get good auctions price so on cryptocurrency still unknown future we are just start in first step not affordable any mistake ok

  • @phillee8666
    @phillee8666 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    For the first 7 month of the 2024, federal debts interest payment is $514billion. It is more than defense spending.

  • @psarathy66
    @psarathy66 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    what would be the dollar currency physically used in all type of banned activities ; practically speaking it is much easier to carry 1 mn $ than to carry gold equivalent. Some light on my observation would be highly appreciated

  • @kerstenukatz8672
    @kerstenukatz8672 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    For your info: The Fed only buys from primary dealers, not directly from the Treasury.

  • @ashanesubasinha8313
    @ashanesubasinha8313 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    How can stocks keep performing if US bonds crash? That makes zero sense because it is the end of the world economy scenario!

  • @MrJuanete12
    @MrJuanete12 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    This video marks top on long term rates. Notice the thesis divergence on duration between this gentlesir and Lacy Hunt...

  • @loreleymadde2886
    @loreleymadde2886 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +20

    Roughly £120k in my portfolio are in tech/TSLA stocks, can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation.

    • @user-gy4gd9dr9f
      @user-gy4gd9dr9f 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      stocks are overrated now. buy gold , 5% in crypto . rest in cash. and wait for the stock/property/land. price to crash . but them after it stops dropping for 7 - 12 months at the bottom.

    • @katharinaleonore4092
      @katharinaleonore4092 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I successfully trade in my own portfolio, and also follow others because I'm interested in their strategies. I realized I've got better at managing the trader's strategies too. There's nothing wrong at all with having someone far more dedicated manage some of your portfolio.

    • @odeliamelusina8382
      @odeliamelusina8382 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I have been thinking about how to grow my reserve by atleast 40% or more within months. I will be grateful if you can give tips or anything on how to make good market picks and how I can get my portfolio diversified and balanced in order to meet up my target..

    • @MichaelBarry-pt9hu
      @MichaelBarry-pt9hu 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thanks for the info, its highly appreciated.

    • @user-rg8ti8cm6e
      @user-rg8ti8cm6e 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      ​Interesting ideals! Few times have been coming across this..... but most individuals won't accept This truth but allow them, they'll understand when They Become bankrupt as a Result Of unavoidable losses.

  • @smsfelipe
    @smsfelipe 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    There will be no auction failures, bank legislation can always be changed to accommodate the government's needs

  • @Muller_Andr
    @Muller_Andr 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    I am regretting not taking advantage of Nvidia's boom ever since but still grateful i kept money in the money market. With about $150k maturing soon, i plan investing in the stock market. What stocks should I look into to average down in and safely grow my money?

    • @Jennapeters144
      @Jennapeters144 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Thats when you hire someone to manage your money. You need a (CFP) straight up! personally, I would invest in ETF's and also love investing in individual stocks.

    • @EmmaFritz90
      @EmmaFritz90 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I took charge of my portfolio but faced losses in 2022. Realizing the need for a change, I sought advice from a fiduciary-advisor. Through restructuring and diversification with dividend stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds, and MBS, my $1.2M portfolio surged, yielding an annualized gain of 128%.

    • @EmmaFritz90
      @EmmaFritz90 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I agree 100% the current terrain is no joke for the average person and even the elitist investors make mistakes during inflection poiints. Get a fa who can be fiduciary to your longterm with proven strategies. That's why I have Monica as my estate planner.

    • @Muller_Andr
      @Muller_Andr 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Your advisor must be really good, how I can get in touch with them as my porfolio isnt doing so well.

    • @EmmaFritz90
      @EmmaFritz90 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      ‘Monica Mary Strigle’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

  • @BadUrbanKarma
    @BadUrbanKarma 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    This might be confirmation bias, but Nick is affirming my investments in a TIPS ladder and shifting from T-Bills to levered long 2 year via TUA ETF.

  • @kimberiysmarketstrategy
    @kimberiysmarketstrategy 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Are we talking about bons growth against inflation?
    At least its pedictable. This is the first Ive ever heard of bonds reducing by 20%.

  • @jeffreywenger281
    @jeffreywenger281 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    At some point, boomers haved kicked off and Gen X are the bulk of the retirees, of which there aren't very many. Doesn't the Federal balance shift into surplus at that point?

    • @timthetiny7538
      @timthetiny7538 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

      2040.
      So run these deficits until then

    • @andrewmickelson3042
      @andrewmickelson3042 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

      No politicians will fill any surplus w spending the problem is in the structure sure that’s a limiting factor the problem is in the issuance and/or spending of the govt people vote for free stuff till they make us amerizuella or we actually fix the problem and inflate as we have and cut hard which is austerity. IMO always the slow and steady decline of civilization

  • @eyzup
    @eyzup 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Great get

  • @sirrobinofloxley7156
    @sirrobinofloxley7156 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    "The US market remains robust, resilient, or whatever you want to call it"... Oh, I know another word that describes it more accurately, even two actually...

  • @Jason-sf8vx
    @Jason-sf8vx 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    One thing for sure is interest rate will be going up as the only way to attract buyer and this is be a major problem for the economy .

  • @Johnny-dp5mu
    @Johnny-dp5mu 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The purpose of investment is profit? Vs risk...and all investments requires anticipation of future. One cannot not do otherwise

  • @saltydog1196
    @saltydog1196 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +19

    Why would anyone buy debt from a collapsing empire? 😮

    • @timthetiny7538
      @timthetiny7538 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

      Because every competitor is collapsing faster

    • @const71
      @const71 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@timthetiny7538 because that's how equities are inflated -- on cheap credit.... but take away the punch bowl and a 'liquidity' crisis is the result... At this point, that same debt you 'ridicule' will change to 'begging' for it ...

    • @timthetiny7538
      @timthetiny7538 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@const71 you replied to the wrong person

    • @const71
      @const71 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@timthetiny7538 oh yeah ... hahah thx -- but i think this guest is wrong and once the great deflation hits us, he will realize it too

    • @JustBob-sw4rf
      @JustBob-sw4rf 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@const71Have you forgotten how massively and quickly the Federal Reserve monetized debt during the 2008 and 2020 recessions? Then throw in all the fiscal spending that the government enacted to boost the economy. And that was in a geopolitical era when we could count on foreigners buying all that massively increasing US debt.
      There’s no argument that we will have a recession. To which recent history clearly shows the Fed will respond with massive monetization and the Federal government with massive fiscal spending. Yes, when the recession starts your long term treasury bonds should appreciate and the Fed will probably cap long term Treasury rates. But, any deflation will be very short lived.

  • @dalie95327
    @dalie95327 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    How can interest rates go down when the fed has to sell 1 trillion dollars of debt every 3 months. People will not buy them without high interest rates.

    • @jonfischer43
      @jonfischer43 17 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      You’re forgetting that there is more money in the economy every 3 months than before, some of it inflationary, but some of it from actual economic activity. There is almost 300 trillion just in the us of assets, and there are foreign buyers of that debt as well.

  • @Fr.VeniceLAI
    @Fr.VeniceLAI 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Buying computer generated digital codes a.k.a. Bitcoin, that are registered / recorded in invisible virtual reality of cyberspace ...can it be the greatest idea of monetary investment into the future ??

  • @zmkarakas
    @zmkarakas 17 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Why wouldnt they buy them, they pay a hefty amount of interest (short duration), the thing which was missing in them for a very long time. What I actually dont get it is why are people still buying up stocks.

  • @jerryware1970
    @jerryware1970 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Central banks and banks(use as collateral to lend more)

  • @andrewvare3173
    @andrewvare3173 19 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    The market can stay irrational longer than you cam stay liquid.

  • @donnahall-kumar333
    @donnahall-kumar333 8 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I have already said that I am going to buy as many as I can as long as I can 👀👂👂✨

  • @tellemanndergaertner
    @tellemanndergaertner 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    why not just buy commodities? All this bond math seems unnecessary

  • @ejiksvinov2748
    @ejiksvinov2748 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Stocks over bond yeah. What is the ratio of stocks over GDP? 190% Bubble!

  • @AnthonyJones-gf6yv
    @AnthonyJones-gf6yv 17 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I thought it was against the law for the fed to buy directly from the Treasury.

  • @k98killer
    @k98killer 20 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Fun fact: Federal Reserve liabilities have about a 2% impairment due to realized losses in excess of their capital.

  • @SomeGuy-ws5zj
    @SomeGuy-ws5zj 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    FED will. At exactly 79 USD for TLT. WE ARE VERY CLOSE.

  • @davecohn6407
    @davecohn6407 8 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Supply is going to overwhelm the bond market due to highly irresponsible spending by the Federal government .
    At the same time the Federal government is pursuing a sanctions policy that is and will cause the BRICs countries to avoid buying and in some instances actual sell bonds .
    But this problem is not isolated to bonds . The higher the interest rate the lower the valuation of stocks and the more expensive it is for companies to buy back stock .
    P/Es are much too high for the largest stocks .
    Sell duration in bonds and sell high equity valuation .

  • @Qureshi-ve3ze
    @Qureshi-ve3ze 20 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks for the update. I bet those Fourprime token holders aren't too worried about the markets.

  • @joaquimbelbut4829
    @joaquimbelbut4829 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Grécia, Portugal Islândia...they will by ...

  • @mattg8431
    @mattg8431 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    So keep buying stocks and short bonds here? An ultimate contrarian call i think

  • @tancolvis5240
    @tancolvis5240 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    if the govt is buying more equity soon those listed companies will go belly up as it a debts

  • @MrJuanete12
    @MrJuanete12 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Jack missed the inverted yield curve, even with the glasses on....

  • @joelstiffarm2996
    @joelstiffarm2996 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

    My favorite parts is you chose one of the people who put us in this situation and expect him to say anything good about bonds when he is a vicious financier for stocks.

  • @tropics8407
    @tropics8407 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Won’t these guys never talk against the trades they have on 😅 dizzying the complexity but to these guys, simplicity 😄

  • @user-wg4gd1cu8v
    @user-wg4gd1cu8v 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The GDP's good because a lot (a lot!) of borrowed money is injected in it by the government to sustain it. Can't have the economy floundering in electoral year, right? What will happen when that money stops flowing because at one point it will become unsustainable as JP claimed. 2025? Later? How will that affect markets and banks? Recession in sight?

  • @alexchan5044
    @alexchan5044 9 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Lady and gentleman , postive yield curve coming means recession with rate cut by Fed. party of stock bull market will be over

  • @user-eb3pi4tv9k
    @user-eb3pi4tv9k 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    Terrible time to buy bonds. T bills short duration only.

    • @zmkarakas
      @zmkarakas 17 วันที่ผ่านมา

      And best time to buy short duration, up to 1-year

    • @derekmason1790
      @derekmason1790 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

      All bad news is priced in though, and economy is likely already in recession. Thus the long end is the place to be. Zirp is coming back

    • @zmkarakas
      @zmkarakas 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@derekmason1790 no gucking way. Zirp is coming back? Zirp is coming back in WW3? Nice, we will see that

  • @Quantitative_Teasing
    @Quantitative_Teasing 18 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    24:00 the fed definitely isn’t allowed to buy directly from treasury, it buys from dealers. This is written in their charter and the whole purpose is to discourage direct monetization of debt.

    • @AnthonyJones-gf6yv
      @AnthonyJones-gf6yv 17 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I’m surprised these guys don’t know that.

    • @charityhedgefund
      @charityhedgefund 7 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Actually, they are. When they invest the excess of maturing bonds under QT (60/bn/month now, 25bn from June ceiling), they buy direct from Treasury via TAAPS at the non-comp auction average, with the UST issuing extra to the Fed. And that is what was being discussed. Google it.

    • @charityhedgefund
      @charityhedgefund 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Not correct. These are QT reinvests and they do buy them direct from UST. Google it. These are add ons to the normal auction sizes.

  • @phongy45
    @phongy45 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Military industries complexes could buy uo ...

  • @barryshaw5660
    @barryshaw5660 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Who’s actually buying treasury bonds, IMF, WB , your pension funds? Do 10 and 30 year bonds make any sense if all the D-dollarization continues.

  • @libertysprings2244
    @libertysprings2244 10 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Who? Me. I'm the buyer of treasuries here. U.s. citizen. Old enough to know how to play these cycles. Great time to buy 5-10 yr treasuries just like 2007 before the crash. I don't need to borrow money to invest. I have money already. No leverage so no risk.

  • @nicholasmendezdelvalle8770
    @nicholasmendezdelvalle8770 17 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Cold water on the face of the duration bull 🚿

  • @lnd3005
    @lnd3005 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Banks with need for regulatory capital duh

  • @rufanuf1
    @rufanuf1 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Dont worry the managers of MMT must have an answer for the markets lack of interest in toilet paper? They have an answer for everything else.

  • @brianhoran3397
    @brianhoran3397 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Federal reserve act does not permit the fed to buy direct, they have to go via the secondary market.

  • @iamurage
    @iamurage 4 วันที่ผ่านมา

    If USA can sell used cruse missiles, Fictitious nuclear subs, fighter aircraft that can never be built to Australia, USA would be on a winner if they tell Australia " help us out here and buy bonds for us". Would be a deal.

  • @robertmcintosh8773
    @robertmcintosh8773 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Musinformation thank you

  • @MT-wc6mv
    @MT-wc6mv 10 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    dont worry, UK,Europe, Australia, New Zealand n Canada will buy usa bond.lets keep America n western countries great n green with green paper.

  • @Cross79127
    @Cross79127 8 วันที่ผ่านมา

    This not new news! Been said for decades now but most didn’t listen

  • @user-qi1qm3jb9x
    @user-qi1qm3jb9x 20 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Been collecting the FourPrime Token this cycle as that has the right place in this time

  • @johnbaber9660
    @johnbaber9660 14 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Who is going to pay back the interest other words Free Money 💰

  • @RajeshwariSurendrapandi
    @RajeshwariSurendrapandi 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Revux competitive edge could redefine its market segment. The unique features and offerings distinguish Revux from competitors, positioning it as a potential leader within its targeted industry.

  • @MamtaDevi-kc9ml
    @MamtaDevi-kc9ml 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The precision in Revux development roadmap is reassuring for investors. A well-defined roadmap provides a clear vision of the project's future, instilling confidence and trust in the strategic direction of Revux.

  • @Gogitara-gi5wc
    @Gogitara-gi5wc 19 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Revux approach to data security is unparalleled. The emphasis on robust security measures adds an extra layer of trust for investors, especially in an era where cybersecurity is of utmost importance.

  • @bellakrinkle9381
    @bellakrinkle9381 20 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    Where are the Bond Vigilantes? Has this administration bought them off? 😆😅🤣🙃

  • @francoissimmer5394
    @francoissimmer5394 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    gold , silver 🚀