2022 was a recession according to then existing definition. Furthermore inflation was understated so it was stronger than reported. You could make a lot of money understanding that and shorting the market. YOU were WRONG.
Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over.
Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt, as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you. Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year, My $200k portfolio is down by approximately 20 %, any recommendations to scale up my returns on investment
Nobody knows anything You need to create your own process, manage risk and stick to the plan, through thick or thin While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Exactly why i enjoy market decisions being guided by a pro , seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk management and market experience , been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over $3million in that time frame.
Sharon Ann Meny is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful one has to have multiple income streams and so on, also investors should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow, joanna claire focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Annette Christine Conte who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Loved every second of my watch to the very end. You are a great teacher. I’m 36 and own a small business with $380K in savings. But I'd still love to grow my investments ahead of retirement. Do you mentor others? Really need some guidance to financial freedom.
Just buy BITCOIN and hold. Or gold, or find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. But advisably, just seek counsel from a market strategist.
Agreed, this is why i now work with one. I’ve been investing by myself in the market for 11 years now, but the last 6 years is with the help of a financial planner. Throughout the 6 years of guidance alone, I've been fortunate enough to 10x my return as a DIY investor, summing up nearly $1.4m roi as of today.
She's known as a *GRISELDA ELENA JEMMOTT*. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field also widely recognized. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment.
Acquiring shares can seem simple, but selecting the appropriate stock without a verified process might be difficult. I've been trying for a long time to grow my $210,000 portfolio, but the major hurdle is that I don't have a clear entry and exit strategy. Any feedback on this would be appreciated.
Investing in a variety of asset classes will reduce risk more than putting all of your money in one. If your financial understanding is lacking, see a financial consultant.
Absolutely, with the help of an investment advisor, I diversified my $400K portfolio across various markets. As a result, I’ve managed to achieve over $900K in net profit within a few months by investing in high dividend yield stocks, ETFs, and bonds.
GISELLE BABILONIA CANTADA is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Possibly the best economics based podcast I have watched to date! This guy is an old school class act with stellar motives. Noting but good vibes and intent for the entire world with sound economic ideas.
Transfer of wealth usually occur during market crash, so the more stocks drop, the more I buy, in the meanwhile I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more as recession fear increases, apparently there are strategies to 3x gains in this present market cos I read of someone that pulled a profit of $350k within 6months, and it would really help if you could make a video covering these strategies.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money or you could hire a financial expert.
Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2020, and I return at least $30k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.
My CFA ’Rachel Sarah Parrish’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
This global recession/collapse might end up being a part of us for a very long time. With inflation currently at about 3%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $680k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
I'd advice you read up some good books on finances and investing, or just you get yourself a financiaI-advsor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
A good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors in exploring new markets, but over the past 10years I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure.
My CFA is Lauren Marie Ehlers, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Excellent interview. This guy makes me think about playing Defense more and more. The timeframe of this stuff happening is what bothers me and then how it gets "solved" is another.
It’s going to be a rocky next few years. They plan on having it done by 2030, clearly. They require major crises both to get them out from under their debt & to make the drastic authoritarian reforms they so clearly want. I, for one, think it’s all too big and complex to go the way any one particular power faction wants.
Russia has been emptying their treasury in this war effort. They have always ran balanced budgets or surpluses. They are now running budget deficits. GDP is growing because of internal spending. Exports are down.
It's sort of the same scenario as the sinking of the Titanic, As the ship was sinking and cracking in two parts, everyone was running up towards the top. They were able to hang on until the ship sank to the bottom of the ocean, The analogy is as such:, the US dollar represents the top of the ship, however we all know that they only bought themselves some more time. Some people were able to safe themselves but for the most part most of the passengers perished. Just a thought!
Brent this is one of the best insights i have had ever heard following your content 1hr 20 min 46 Not only because of financial insight but because of the political concequinces in countries outside the Us
Sovereign Debt repudiation - 53:40 US has Global Seigniorage - the difference between the value of US$ and the 'cost' to print it ! In times of high volatility the USD strengthens v/s other currencies ...US equities could be the 'safe haven' asset and go much higher when US Treasuries stop playing that role ! Thanks so much Brent and Jack! Would love to hear of a discussion with Russell Napier and Brent 🙏
@@Elcanario91 Focusing solely on financial collapse, inflation, or hyperinflation can be misleading because this game can go on forever. The depletion in the Permian basin will end everything. We'll be facing a 1970s oil shortage with no alternative. The implications will be as significant as when United States oil production peaked in 1970 but much worse. It'll trigger a series of events that will ultimately cause prices to increase five-fold over a few years if not months.
@@Elcanario91 Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian "liquid" shale have peaked; their production will decline in 2025. However, adding more rigs can minimize the decline into a plateau. Let's see how that goes in the next two quarters. I'm not sure about natural gas because the data accounts for oil wells. Keep in mind that almost 70% of liquid production in the US comes from shale, not oil wells. The rest of the world's production has peaked, and their shale is low in heating value, oil yield, and affordability without being highly inflationary in their currencies. The dollar can get away with it.
JF very astute point: "people who say the dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt would agree with you". I tried to make that point to others but so far had nobody understand that point. Brilliant, JF!
@stopper90004 that analogy doesn't fit, imo. USD is just a global reserve currency. If anything, it's the dirtiest shirt in the laundry. There are so many currencies that are much "cleaner", but people don't use their currencies to borrow across borders, thats all.
He said," terrifying drawdowns along the way". What does that imply? 20%, 30%, 50%? I mean we could have a recession in the short term where markets drop 50%. Then they pump it again (S&P to 7000 or 8000), and then we have a real bust where it all crashes 80%+. I think we are getting a recession like 2008 that will last a year to a year and a half, ending at the end of 2025. Then we will see a V-shaped recovery.
Having the global reserve currency is like being able to borrow money and also being able to charge the lender interest. That interest being the inflation rate. Inflate too much and the Fed threatens that sweetheart deal.
Interesting discussion, but central banks loosing control would presuppose that the Fed USD swap lines were somehow limited. That's not to say that they would not be, but what is the mechanism that limits those lines?
One thought on top of his brilliant mind is that I often find myself having to readjust the time frame of an economic thesis from that day it occured to me as the starting point to, perhaps, it started a while ago. Just a thought.
The reconciliation of bad debt by the banks, and their subsequent reigning in of poor quality debt is not a rug-pull. The banks have to do this to maintain their reserve ratios. All of this is a result of the 'free money' of the last 16 years. Everything is a good idea until you have to pay for it. Higher interest rates separate un-economic from economic ventures. Or am I being too rational here? Governments (it is our money) can no longer afford to give hand-outs to un-economic ventures.
Brent is one of the top finance thinkers in the world. The breadth of his understanding and analysis is brilliant. However, it would be nice if he learned subject-verb agreement.
Everything he said makes sense for him as fund manager gambling other people's money. by the time the system starts melting down he just will leave his clients screwed and he would have made enough money from management fees and bonuses to retire comfortably. head he wins tail clients lose. those who live paycheck to paycheck and can't afford hiring Brent to manage their money will be left in despair under hyper inflation. truly the beauty of capitalism...🎉🎉
What he describes about the leverage on US bonds is exactly what is the weakness of the system and what can blow it apart. My concern with his theory is that if there is going to be a meltdown, the US is in the biggest bubble in terms of valuation, so why would you want to put your money in the most overvalued asset? Real estate is a foundation of asset pricing and is the asset that much debt is structured on. What happens when real estate values fall for multiple years and yet debt is rising? The debt must crash and a crash in debt markets will take down equity markets as well. I am more concerned about debt levels than specifically about the dollar itself. The RRP drain dumped 1.7 Trillion into financial markets. The Fed should have matched that infusion of liquidity by selling similar amounts of assets from the balance sheet, thereby preventing a bigger asset bubble, But they did not. The next few months the tax receipts by the government had buoyed the market. But now there is not enough liquidity to prop up the asset bubbles.
3:40 “Potentially a rug pull of global liquidity” Brent clearly does understand Global Liquidity. The data has shown the exact opposite. As Michael Howell and others have shared this week.
10 year trading above the 4% handle again. How much demand for US bonds are carry trade Yen dressed up as dollars? Where do yields go as the carry trade becomes less of a guarantee? I know the BOJ jawboned but I suspect traders are still weary about borrowing Yen.
The treasury rally earlier in the week, while the yen was strengthening tells you those who think "the recent stock market declines are because of the yen carry trade",.. are wrong. If that were the case,.. yields would have gone up.
The US treasury gets its euro-dollar liquidity first, then everyone else gets whatever is left over. That's just the way it is...can the ED liquidity dry up completely? Sure it can, and it will the the US treasury who gets the last drop.
If the HKD peg breaks this might also be the time that your broker is bankrupt, so even you were right, you actually lose everything. Hong Kong is so intertwined in global finance I wouldnt see that peg break as a good hedge.
Anyone know how to buy those put options on the hong kong dollar? I've been following Brent for years and it sounds like a pretty good idea. I only use DeGiro for trading though. Not looking for financial advice just instructions.
When the usa trade deficit was at a great disadvantage, to the rest of the world. At that time the usa giant businesses built great big million sq. Feet warehousing. Then the dollar for some reason got very strong. Then importing of goods started to fill up those warehouses. The chinas and other countries hade a hard time keeping up. Then the us dollar crashed. Then those stored goods started to come to be in great demand. Whom ever needed those goods wether they live in usa or other countries , well they had to pay threw the nose. That trade idea was brilliant. Whats going to be the next great manipulation idea. Oh lets create world wide pandemic, and after that escalate wars between nations. And lets push electrification world wide and raise taxes and stop climate change. Cause stopping climate change will end wars between nations. Realllllyyyyy people please make it stop.
Several months ago I watched an interview with Alistair Macleod and he said Russian income tax is 13% and 15% for higher rate tax payers. Is Brent saying this tax amount gone up, or they are paying additional taxes elsewhere? Personally I would prefer 15% to pay to what I am being screwed for by HMRC and the thieving Labour Government.
Americans pay 50% in taxes. Add an additional 25% for insurance and copays and the 30 to 40% decline of the dollars purchasing power to inflation in the last 4 years... and we are left with almost nothing left. No way can that be sustained. To make matters worse, inflation is still goin up just at a slower pace. What we really need is a deflationary period. Nasy recession or depression to fix it. If we don't get that... eventually inflation gets so bad the dollar is worth nothing. I am not sure if the uS Government is going to save the stock market or the Dollar.... but what I do know for sure is either way they go there is great pain involved. A no win situation.
Countries are realising that being aligned to the US economy makes their people poorer, here in the uk American monopolies are making us all poorer, small businesses cannot compete. Banks don’t lend to small businesses
SO the point is: when is the time there is no longer the demand for us treasuries as they give negative outcome because of usd debasement. Turn to us stocks will not last forever, as these are only stocks not perfect for a store of value
I agree every country depends on US and the growth of US which coincides YEN carry and if and when US goes into a recession the unwind begin with margin calls imo.
@@Timothy_Pitt that's totally ridiculous, none of the brics has currency suitable even for trading among themselves, much less for the rest of the world
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
Jack doesnt have a MOAT in this conversation lol
2022 was a recession according to then existing definition. Furthermore inflation was understated so it was stronger than reported. You could make a lot of money understanding that and shorting the market. YOU were WRONG.
sinds it never happend
it will never happen
solid logic
keep the printer going boys
lol
Terrible idea. Buy low and sell high is bad. What happens if the stock 5x in 3 years like Meta. 😂
What happens if it only goes up? Buy high and sell high?????
Protecting your capital is much more important than making money. Basically because if you lose your capital, making money is much harder. ''Missing the train'' vs. ''losing your money''. There are a lot of trains, but if your money is gone, it's over.
Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt, as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you. Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year, My $200k portfolio is down by approximately 20 %, any recommendations to scale up my returns on investment
Nobody knows anything You need to create your own process, manage risk and stick to the plan, through thick or thin While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Exactly why i enjoy market decisions being guided by a pro , seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk management and market experience , been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over $3million in that time frame.
Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? I'm 49 now and would love to grow my stock portfolio and plan my retirement
Sharon Ann Meny is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post. To be successful one has to have multiple income streams and so on, also investors should understand the crossover between asset classes & liquidity flow, joanna claire focuses on Multi-asset trading, a single strategy to manage risk, profit, and the code or the actual decision-making across multi-asset classes. Her skills set is top notch
The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received $3900. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills
You trade with joanna claire too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family
I’m new at this, how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first until I decided to try. It’s huge returns is awesome! I can’t say much.
she's mostly on Telegrams, with the user name.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Annette Christine Conte who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I located her, sent her an email, and scheduled a call; hopefully, she will reply because I want to end the year off financially strong.
Loved every second of my watch to the very end. You are a great teacher. I’m 36 and own a small business with $380K in savings. But I'd still love to grow my investments ahead of retirement. Do you mentor others? Really need some guidance to financial freedom.
Just buy BITCOIN and hold. Or gold, or find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. But advisably, just seek counsel from a market strategist.
Agreed, this is why i now work with one. I’ve been investing by myself in the market for 11 years now, but the last 6 years is with the help of a financial planner. Throughout the 6 years of guidance alone, I've been fortunate enough to 10x my return as a DIY investor, summing up nearly $1.4m roi as of today.
Please who guides you on the process of it all?
She's known as a *GRISELDA ELENA JEMMOTT*. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field also widely recognized. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment.
I just curiously searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. Thank you
Acquiring shares can seem simple, but selecting the appropriate stock without a verified process might be difficult. I've been trying for a long time to grow my $210,000 portfolio, but the major hurdle is that I don't have a clear entry and exit strategy. Any feedback on this would be appreciated.
Investing in a variety of asset classes will reduce risk more than putting all of your money in one. If your financial understanding is lacking, see a financial consultant.
Absolutely, with the help of an investment advisor, I diversified my $400K portfolio across various markets. As a result, I’ve managed to achieve over $900K in net profit within a few months by investing in high dividend yield stocks, ETFs, and bonds.
That makes perfect sense; you appear to have the market figured out, unlike us. Who supervises you?
GISELLE BABILONIA CANTADA is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I found her profile while searching for her full name online and promptly emailed her to arrange a meeting. I'm still awaiting her reply.
Brent Johnson is absolutely the prescient guest to hear today. He has grown into clarity and wisdom.
Brent, the most level headed thoughtful speaker I've heard. Very useful. Lyn and Brent are both thought leaders.
Possibly the best economics based podcast I have watched to date! This guy is an old school class act with stellar motives. Noting but good vibes and intent for the entire world with sound economic ideas.
Transfer of wealth usually occur during market crash, so the more stocks drop, the more I buy, in the meanwhile I'm just focused on making better investments and earning more as recession fear increases, apparently there are strategies to 3x gains in this present market cos I read of someone that pulled a profit of $350k within 6months, and it would really help if you could make a video covering these strategies.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money or you could hire a financial expert.
Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are a lot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look. I have been using an FA since 2020, and I return at least $30k ROI, and this does not include capital gain.
Would you mind telling me how to contact this specific coach using their service? You seem to have the solution, as opposed to the rest of us.
My CFA ’Rachel Sarah Parrish’ , a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
Just ran an online search on her name and came across her websiite; pretty well educated. thank you for sharing.
When I come across Brent Johnson I listen... He's definitely a gem!
This global recession/collapse might end up being a part of us for a very long time. With inflation currently at about 3%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $680k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
I'd advice you read up some good books on finances and investing, or just you get yourself a financiaI-advsor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
A good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors in exploring new markets, but over the past 10years I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure.
I've been looking to switch, but have been kind of relaxed about it. Could you recommend your wealth manager? I'll be happy to use some help.
My CFA is Lauren Marie Ehlers, a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
I just googled her now and I'm really impressed with her credentials. I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get.
Brent Johnson always has important insights. Very useful discussion.
Brent was really at the top of his game for this video. I learned a lot.
I will soon publish my Swiss Franc Fondue Theory. Be prepared.
How does it compare to the omlette du fromage index...?
you are confused, Swiss Frank follows Cheese Theory.
I have my Euro bratwurst theory.
@@ElementaryWatson-oxo absolutely not! You are on the right track, fondue is cheese!
Fiat covered in cheese or chocolate? How do you fondue?
Excellent interview. This guy makes me think about playing Defense more and more. The timeframe of this stuff happening is what bothers me and then how it gets "solved" is another.
It’s going to be a rocky next few years. They plan on having it done by 2030, clearly. They require major crises both to get them out from under their debt & to make the drastic authoritarian reforms they so clearly want.
I, for one, think it’s all too big and complex to go the way any one particular power faction wants.
Bible, beans, bullets, band aids, and bullion. Nothing else will matter.
I take notes when Brent speaks 👌 Great questions from the host.
Thoroughly enjoyed this.
The world would feel like a much calmer place if everybody listened to Brent Johnson
Russia has been emptying their treasury in this war effort. They have always ran balanced budgets or surpluses. They are now running budget deficits. GDP is growing because of internal spending. Exports are down.
It's sort of the same scenario as the sinking of the Titanic, As the ship was sinking and cracking in two parts, everyone was running up towards the top. They were able to hang on until the ship sank to the bottom of the ocean, The analogy is as such:, the US dollar represents the top of the ship, however we all know that they only bought themselves some more time. Some people were able to safe themselves but for the most part most of the passengers perished. Just a thought!
This is one the best interviews you had recently. This has a ton of good information. Thanks
Brent this is one of the best insights i have had ever heard following your content 1hr 20 min 46
Not only because of financial insight but because of the political concequinces in countries outside the Us
Sovereign Debt repudiation - 53:40
US has Global Seigniorage - the difference between the value of US$ and the 'cost' to print it !
In times of high volatility the USD strengthens v/s other currencies ...US equities could be the 'safe haven' asset and go much higher when US Treasuries stop playing that role !
Thanks so much Brent and Jack! Would love to hear of a discussion with Russell Napier and Brent 🙏
Excellent guest!
Best interview in weeks. Thanks so much!
Throwing shade at Peter Schiff at the 20min mark
Peter Schiff is clueless
@@Elcanario91 Focusing solely on financial collapse, inflation, or hyperinflation can be misleading because this game can go on forever.
The depletion in the Permian basin will end everything. We'll be facing a 1970s oil shortage with no alternative. The implications will be as significant as when United States oil production peaked in 1970 but much worse. It'll trigger a series of events that will ultimately cause prices to increase five-fold over a few years if not months.
Schiff wasn't the first person who claimed that the dollar would collapse.
@@keyisersoze you are wrong
@@Elcanario91 Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian "liquid" shale have peaked; their production will decline in 2025. However, adding more rigs can minimize the decline into a plateau. Let's see how that goes in the next two quarters. I'm not sure about natural gas because the data accounts for oil wells. Keep in mind that almost 70% of liquid production in the US comes from shale, not oil wells. The rest of the world's production has peaked, and their shale is low in heating value, oil yield, and affordability without being highly inflationary in their currencies. The dollar can get away with it.
Great work: you should have Brent on every week!!
I think it’s great that you try to inform people about the reality
Thank you so much for all your wisdom and information!!!
fantastic convo! love hearing Brent's perspectives.
JF very astute point: "people who say the dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt would agree with you". I tried to make that point to others but so far had nobody understand that point. Brilliant, JF!
He did nit explain how brick will work out
Until people realize that they can use a new shirt that never needs to be cleaned.
@stopper90004 that analogy doesn't fit, imo. USD is just a global reserve currency. If anything, it's the dirtiest shirt in the laundry. There are so many currencies that are much "cleaner", but people don't use their currencies to borrow across borders, thats all.
It's the healthiest horse in the glue factory
He said," terrifying drawdowns along the way". What does that imply? 20%, 30%, 50%? I mean we could have a recession in the short term where markets drop 50%. Then they pump it again (S&P to 7000 or 8000), and then we have a real bust where it all crashes 80%+. I think we are getting a recession like 2008 that will last a year to a year and a half, ending at the end of 2025. Then we will see a V-shaped recovery.
My figures not to scare is 86% all said and done. It will take years.
Great interview. Capital doesn't have to go into equities or treasuries, it can easily flow to gold, silver, and crypto.
This is a really good interview. Completely agree with Brent and learned quite a bit too. Thank you.
fascinating, great dialogue and macro explanations.... thank you
Never heard of Brent Johnson..........he's pretty awesome. I hope people pay attention to the "way" he's thinking instead of the "what"
Having the global reserve currency is like being able to borrow money and also being able to charge the lender interest.
That interest being the inflation rate.
Inflate too much and the Fed threatens that sweetheart deal.
Interesting discussion, but central banks loosing control would presuppose that the Fed USD swap lines were somehow limited. That's not to say that they would not be, but what is the mechanism that limits those lines?
That was a super interesting watch!
Been tracking Vematum's development. Impressed with the progress!
good interview. the real question he will not answer is what he will do WHEN the game ends.
Vematum's technology is ahead of its time. This will be huge!
One thought on top of his brilliant mind is that I often find myself having to readjust the time frame of an economic thesis from that day it occured to me as the starting point to, perhaps, it started a while ago. Just a thought.
The reconciliation of bad debt by the banks, and their subsequent reigning in of poor quality debt is not a rug-pull. The banks have to do this to maintain their reserve ratios.
All of this is a result of the 'free money' of the last 16 years. Everything is a good idea until you have to pay for it. Higher interest rates separate un-economic from economic ventures. Or am I being too rational here? Governments (it is our money) can no longer afford to give hand-outs to un-economic ventures.
Interesting that they did not mention anything about the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade. It's so obvious that this is what has been happening.
Brent is one of the top finance thinkers in the world. The breadth of his understanding and analysis is brilliant. However, it would be nice if he learned subject-verb agreement.
Just goes to show everybody’s guessing about all of this. Timing is just as critical as getting the direction right.
I see Vematum as a long-term hold. Great fundamentals!
It's almost like people don't understand the balance of payments.
Thank you gentlemen, very interesting to listen to nuanced ideas.
The speed of Vematum's transactions is a game-changer.
Buy the dip!!! Enjoy the printing, gentlemen!!! There is no other way around
Excellent. Intelligent analysis well presented. Thanks.
Thanks guys!
What if the US issues capital controls? How does this play out?
Not well
Everything he said makes sense for him as fund manager gambling other people's money. by the time the system starts melting down he just will leave his clients screwed and he would have made enough money from management fees and bonuses to retire comfortably. head he wins tail clients lose.
those who live paycheck to paycheck and can't afford hiring Brent to manage their money will be left in despair under hyper inflation. truly the beauty of capitalism...🎉🎉
The security features of Vematum set it apart from others.
This was such a great interview
The more I learn about Vematum, the more I believe in its vision.
Great conversation
Very important topics and responses that mak sense
Vematum is making moves quietly. Keep an eye on it!
The system works like this.... eho designed it? Where is it enforced?
If you're looking for a solid x100, Vematum should be on your radar.
Politicians often want multiple conflicting things. Reality overrides rhetoric.
Awesome segment. ❤
What he describes about the leverage on US bonds is exactly what is the weakness of the system and what can blow it apart. My concern with his theory is that if there is going to be a meltdown, the US is in the biggest bubble in terms of valuation, so why would you want to put your money in the most overvalued asset?
Real estate is a foundation of asset pricing and is the asset that much debt is structured on. What happens when real estate values fall for multiple years and yet debt is rising? The debt must crash and a crash in debt markets will take down equity markets as well. I am more concerned about debt levels than specifically about the dollar itself.
The RRP drain dumped 1.7 Trillion into financial markets. The Fed should have matched that infusion of liquidity by selling similar amounts of assets from the balance sheet, thereby preventing a bigger asset bubble, But they did not. The next few months the tax receipts by the government had buoyed the market. But now there is not enough liquidity to prop up the asset bubbles.
He says massive drawdowns will occur
Burry was early and he did pretty well.
Excellent discussion
Betting on HKD could be via the HKEX. If the Cn property market can recover by the end of the year, it could be s bonus.
Fantastic conversation!
Jack doesnt have a MOAT in this conversation lol
3:40 “Potentially a rug pull of global liquidity” Brent clearly does understand Global Liquidity. The data has shown the exact opposite. As Michael Howell and others have shared this week.
... this aged like fine milk
How do we play the hkd depeg at 700% leverage?
What if Argentina issues US dollar-denominated bonds? What interest rate would they need to pay?
10 year trading above the 4% handle again. How much demand for US bonds are carry trade Yen dressed up as dollars? Where do yields go as the carry trade becomes less of a guarantee? I know the BOJ jawboned but I suspect traders are still weary about borrowing Yen.
The treasury rally earlier in the week, while the yen was strengthening tells you those who think "the recent stock market declines are because of the yen carry trade",.. are wrong.
If that were the case,.. yields would have gone up.
Excellent Interview
The US treasury gets its euro-dollar liquidity first, then everyone else gets whatever is left over. That's just the way it is...can the ED liquidity dry up completely? Sure it can, and it will the the US treasury who gets the last drop.
If the HKD peg breaks this might also be the time that your broker is bankrupt, so even you were right, you actually lose everything. Hong Kong is so intertwined in global finance I wouldnt see that peg break as a good hedge.
well, ok -- but does this strong dollar complex still prevent a GFC 2.0 from occurring? just, the rest of the world would subsidize the bailout? ... 🤔
so is there an ETF to do what he says to do (short the HK dollar?)
Not that I have found
Etf to short HK equities & property is alternative?
Brent Johnson has Guts.
Great stuff, thanks again!
Great show
Anyone know how to buy those put options on the hong kong dollar? I've been following Brent for years and it sounds like a pretty good idea. I only use DeGiro for trading though. Not looking for financial advice just instructions.
I do not
etf that shorts HKG equities & property?
When the usa trade deficit was at a great disadvantage, to the rest of the world. At that time the usa giant businesses built great big million sq. Feet warehousing. Then the dollar for some reason got very strong. Then importing of goods started to fill up those warehouses. The chinas and other countries hade a hard time keeping up. Then the us dollar crashed. Then those stored goods started to come to be in great demand. Whom ever needed those goods wether they live in usa or other countries , well they had to pay threw the nose. That trade idea was brilliant. Whats going to be the next great manipulation idea. Oh lets create world wide pandemic, and after that escalate wars between nations. And lets push electrification world wide and raise taxes and stop climate change. Cause stopping climate change will end wars between nations. Realllllyyyyy people please make it stop.
Several months ago I watched an interview with Alistair Macleod and he said Russian income tax is 13% and 15% for higher rate tax payers. Is Brent saying this tax amount gone up, or they are paying additional taxes elsewhere? Personally I would prefer 15% to pay to what I am being screwed for by HMRC and the thieving Labour Government.
Americans pay 50% in taxes. Add an additional 25% for insurance and copays and the 30 to 40% decline of the dollars purchasing power to inflation in the last 4 years... and we are left with almost nothing left. No way can that be sustained. To make matters worse, inflation is still goin up just at a slower pace. What we really need is a deflationary period. Nasy recession or depression to fix it. If we don't get that... eventually inflation gets so bad the dollar is worth nothing. I am not sure if the uS Government is going to save the stock market or the Dollar.... but what I do know for sure is either way they go there is great pain involved. A no win situation.
Russia has a population of 140 million and the GDP of Spain (40 million) ... therefore Russia is not a modern economy. Forget Russia.
The dollar is the healthiest horse at the glue factory and will be for at least another decade.
Countries are realising that being aligned to the US economy makes their people poorer, here in the uk American monopolies are making us all poorer, small businesses cannot compete. Banks don’t lend to small businesses
Inflation is out of control here in the Philippines. Rich Philippine people use the USD as their only savings method. Not their own currency.
Interesting report, thank you
They are operating QE?
SO the point is: when is the time there is no longer the demand for us treasuries as they give negative outcome because of usd debasement. Turn to us stocks will not last forever, as these are only stocks not perfect for a store of value
Brent higher dollar is the dawn of chaous
Vematum's use case is exactly what the crypto world needs.
50 minutes: governments can ALWAYS stop their own currency from rising by printing money. They cannot prevent it from Falling.
I agree every country depends on US and the growth of US which coincides YEN carry and if and when US goes into a recession the unwind begin with margin calls imo.
Brent he is smart guy
Thanks
This is just a normal pull back. The crisis hasn't started yet. If the recession confirms, 5-10% pullback would be weekly volatility.
So what happens if eurodollar market decouples from US dollar? How is that going to play out?
That is the BRICS scenario, isn't it?
@@Timothy_Pitt that's totally ridiculous, none of the brics has currency suitable even for trading among themselves, much less for the rest of the world
@@ElementaryWatson-oxo
I don't disagree
Answer is eurodollar cannot decouple. Period
?
@@ElementaryWatson-oxo
EU's Euro to the rescue?
Ha Ha
Indian bond is quite safe should be given a AAA but not so you get almost 7 percent