“There’s Going To Be Hell To Pay” Argues Veteran Trader Jason Shapiro
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.ค. 2024
- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Jason Shapiro on Twitter x.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt
Jason Shapiro website www.crowdedmarketreport.com/
Jason Shapiro TH-cam channel / @crowdedmarketreport
Follow VanEck on Twitter / vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter / jackfarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter / forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:41 Jason Is "Neutral" On Stocks
03:14 If Stocks Don't Rally On A Lower-Than-Expected PCE Number, There's Trouble
06:30 Copper Has Become "The Favorite Trade On The Planet"
13:00 Central Banks Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner
20:50 "I Would Not Be Super Aggressive Here"
22:37 VanEck Ad
23:17 Jack's Push-Back Against "The Endgame" Take
26:31 Trading Off A Macro View Is Dangerous As Hell
27:37 Nvidia: The Mag One
36:49 Bond Market Positioning
41:10 U.S. Government Is Running A Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Deficit
43:50 Jason Doesn't Trade On His Macro View Of Money-Printing Endgame, In The Same Way That A Profitable Sportsbetter From New York Doesn't Bet On The Knicks
44:56 Barron's Roundtable Portfolio Is Up 2% This Year (Compared to 12% S&P 500)
51:31 Jason's View Of Market Breadth
56:49 Jason Is "Not A Big Believer In Chinese Stocks"
01:06:15 Babyish Sentiment (People Freaking Out About Stock Market Being 5% Off Its Highs) Is Probably A Bullish SIgn Argues Jason
01:09:06 On A Short-Term Basis Jason Prefers Bonds To Stocks. What Would Have To Happen For That To Change?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - บันเทิง
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
I love Jason (He is very entertaining) 😂 Unfortunately, we should not expect someone who participate in a Ponzi (Stock Market) know what the government is doing with the U.S. Dollar. Everything the Fed and the U.S. Treasury do is to save the value of the Dollar. Until there is a currency that can challenge the Dollar, we should have faith in It.
@@georgelien The replacement for the dollar isn't a fiat currency, it's gold.
Have faith in something that has been devalued by 97%? By our FED. They will take the last 3% also. Thankfully we live in a free country and you can do what you want. Plan accordingly.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Marisa has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.
Do it. AMS28K already in my bags. I had a AMS28K after ( your should I buy ) and I agreed and bought. I'm looking to stack more, too.
Scam
Thank you for another great discussion Jack. Always enjoy our conversations.
Thanks for sharing your views Jason!
56:30 one of the biggest reasons I didn't write about Nvidia was, I kept referencing skynet, and I thought people wouldn't take it seriously. People don't know Nvidia at all. They don't understand just how good this company is, and how vicious they are, when they have advantage. The big tech companies are used to normal price increase, they've never dealt with Nvidia kind of price increase before.
@@melsenbabeAnd thank you Melsen!
This guy is a pro for sure, he will change his opinion or thesis in order to make money, prevent big losses and let his winners run, and no one has ever gone broke taking profits.
All about process. Thanks for the comment.
He is one of the "maket wizards" for a reason !!
institutional buying into AMS28K could totally break the cycle and the peak expectation of end of 2025 will likely spectacularly fail to appear. If the last double peak was odd, the next one will catch most people out again.
AMS28K YES!!! My biggest bag is AMS28K.... I can see $5 to $7 in the next Bull Run, more if it is a strong run this cycle $8 to $9 💰💰💰💰 ... great video..
U mean bullshit run 😎
Jason can’t stop shitting on Dan Nathan, and it’s so well deserved. 😂😂😂❤❤❤
Jason is a really cool guy, straight forward true trader
Definitely, the current economic instability is causing a lot of concern. With factors like trade tensions and fluctuating markets, it's hard to predict what's coming next.
The economic crisis is really worrying, especially with everything going on in the global economy.
That's true. And the ripple effects of these disruptions are felt worldwide. It's not just one country's problem; it affects everyone
The massive government stimulus packages implemented to combat the pandemic's economic impact could have long-term consequences, like inflation.
Inflation is definitely a concern. It can erode people's purchasing power and make it harder for businesses to operate profitably.
That's why it's crucial to stay informed and be proactive in managing our finances during these uncertain times. Seeking advice from financial experts can really make a difference.
I totally agree with Jason, we are at the end game phase of the fiat cycle, a reset event may not be imminent, but it is inevitable, and not only in the U.S in my opinion
Answer to your question. The people bail out the government through standard of living decline.
The rich stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without hesitating then the poor stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich
when someone is straight forward and good at what she does best. People will always speak for them. For me I would say give Mrs Andrea a try and you will be happy you did
She's definitely a top player in the trading world. Her ability to make successful trades is really impressive.
After i raised upto 425k trading with her, I bought a new house here in the states also paid for my son's surgery (Andrea) glory to God.
Please do you mind sharing any means of reaching out to her easily?
SHE'S ON TE LEGRAM⬇️⬇️⬇️
Gold can get a hell of a lot more crowded, as other central banks keep buying it to reduce their relative UST holdings
😂, due diligence.
Look at the world reserve in and out of the grounds
Pun intended
Great interview!
It was funny, I was watching George Gammon and he had a clip of this, recommending we watch the whole video. Looked it up and realized I'm already subscribed to you!
ha I just thought the same thing after I rang the bell
Jason is one of the best! Smart man!
Be wrong, make money. This game is not about being right, it is about making money. I am happy to be wrong every day of the week if I can make money every day of the week. That is what this is about. 46:55
I agree with you here. My mid to long term bias it that we are close to a massive crash. When? When the Fed Pivots and the yield curve reinverts. We are not there yet. There are day I go long and there are day I go short. Most important is not to marry any idea and just trade the chart. It took me years and a lot of money to understand that. Once I got that I started making money.
Lol I love Jason. He's so honest and hilarious. Pretty good for a market wizard
We need a montage of the evolution of Jack's hair over the last couple years
Great guest and interview...thanks Jack.
His cautions on shorting are wise.
He means short long term. Shorting is find if the instrument you are trading is in a down trend. He said that "most should not do it" that is because it takes skill, money and risk managment. Most people have no idea what those are... they just buy the market on the dips. IMHO we will get to a point that folks who don't know how to short properly are going to get their faces ripped off. As he said we are not there yet... but I think we are getting close. When the Fed pivots and the yield curve reinverts will be the signal to go short IMHO. Not a recommendation. I have no idea what I am talking about and if you listen to me you will probably lose all your money. But I know exactly what I am doing.
He is describing the end of Keynesian Economics.
Love Jason's Crowded Market dailies, but this was all over the place...still have no idea what he thinks
Yeah, doesn't seem like he has any high conviction trades right now.
He specifically said over an over that "thinking" is the problem! He has a process, and he is religious about it. Wish I heard about him 20 years ago.
Chicago Fed (National Financial Conditions Index) shows liquidity is very wet.
Love that chart. It may not be a big deal but sometimes they slightly adjust the graph retroactively by tiny amounts.
Iv used the melt up over a year to dump almost everything except the Cathie wood crap I still own, whacked the money into T bills and property and feel a lot better, no more 2022’s for me plz god.
Yeah takes time after getting beat up a bit. But making some ground with T bills and a few winner stocks gets you back in the game. I had some crap picks, but given enough time i'm doing decent now. And buy basically only stuff like Vanguard etf's
Jason is a funny guy - good podcast
Nice ! I love J Shapiro
Long bonds when 10 Trillion is coming due in 2024? OK sounds about right.
He's not on that podcast viewed by thousands of people to give them the truth , he's here to bag them ....The economy is a zero sum game , concentration of wealth means a LOT of currency units on the accounts of FEW people , and that is NOT achieved by giving damn good investment infos to a potential F$CKLOAD of TH-cam viewers , the "everyone gets money" thing automatically means no one got wealth ( pure logic ....like coconuts on a desert island can't be currency because that's about the only thing with salt water that's not rare and desirable ) ...I mean why do you think the turnover of all those "financial channels" on the TH-cam algo is so high ? It's because when one channel has begged enough people and lost all it's credibility , you gotta pump another fresh channel up front to do the same trick once again ... Pump and Dump
He says he would have been broke betting on the collapse of dollar purchasing power but gold made annual average 5% since Reagan so not sure how he would be broke exactly. Maybe out of a job as an institutional investor but it was evidently a solid thesis for wealth preservation. Sure you would have got a lot more ignoring that systemic risk but can you put a price on a good nights sleep every night for 40 years knowing you aren't exposed to that systemic risk?
Everything is a trade. As they say, marry a person but trade a stock. But when the government begins printing, buy an index fund and concentrate on your job and improve your career.
Very good interview 👍👍👍
NVIDIA - could we have a dialogue about the "creative financing" being employed by NVD with its customers, like Coreweave ? If I provide the money for you to buy my product, and then that product is used as collateral for you to qualify for Loans - is that a bona fide sale of my product? Thanks guys - great conversation !
Nice to see you got your hair back Jack!
Thanks Jack for another excellent interview 👍
so stocks did rally on a weaker pce...
Great interview. I appreciate the guest's free flow of thoughts. Feeling a bit exposed for thinking I could trade around any macro theme after this.
Love this channel and a big fan of Jason's. Thank you for the content.
Well done. Good conversation. Talking trading and macro is always challenging.
Key nugget on successful trading that took me years to put into operation at 48:14 "as soon as somebody says the words I think I'm like okay you're done". Bingo!
Who bails out the bailers? We do. Our great grandkids do. Buy gold.
Agree, taxpayers do.
I think inflation will "cure" everything for the rest of our (American) lifetimes. I agree with Peter Schiff on that one. But I also think we can see an epic swoon beforehand, particularly in housing.
I like this guy lol
I love how his mind works!
If most people consider themselves to be contrarians then most are not being contrarian when they think they are
He doesn't care what people consider themselves to be though. He only looks at where they're positioned, and bets the other way.
Jason: I don't trade or know individual stocks
Jack & Jason: Let's keep discussing NVDA
Thank you Jason
true, the headline this week bonds up stocks down, and the yield curve finally reinverting = potential for the bear
Damn he was spot on with copper. Well done Jason. One of the best pros out there
We are there....selling more treasuries to pay for the interest.
Thank Trump for 25% of the total of 250 years in 4 years
Not Trump, it was originally Bernanke then Yellen and Congress. They are the printers.
That's crazy!! I'm a novice investor haven't been investing 2 full years, and I'm up 10.94% YTD.
Looking good Jack! How was Istanbul?
Thanks
Interesting guy... thanks Jack
Good job, 👍
Where to buy that Papexnova ?
Just swapped all of my last ETH and swapped it into AMS28K. Already up a little bit. Unfortunately I have some other junk staked which won’t free up for a while. Still now I am on the train!
So he's not shorting Nvidia.
J is the best
I think bonds go up from the monthly lows many months ago.
This is based on price action... but I'm willing to admit there's a few confirmations to support that that haven't fired for me yet
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Veronica Hoy.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
The first time we had tried, we invested $1400 and after a week we received $5,230. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.
You invest with Veronica Hoy too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Elizabeth Wesley.
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...
She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.
Really you people know her? I was even thinking that I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of trading
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
I always learn a lot from jason
The phone going off at 19:40 was very telling
I dont understand how he thinks just because people get excited and stocks change hands it means there is more selling liquidity.. just because you buy a copper company for a higher price it doesnt create more shares.
29:10 first dude who actually just says Nvidia makes money, rather than blindly saying "bubble, hur dur". Nvidia has the best situation ever.
People like us that spent over 25 years in market know what bubble looks like and how it sounds out there in the world, we nowhere near that point yet, it doesn't mean stuff can't be volatile on the way there, but fact remains, we are nowhere near that point AI valuations wise or psychology of the crowds, tons of sceptics out there, they are just quiet about it, by time is bubble territory there will be no sceptic left.
@@user-yq7rr9lh9c Nowhere near that point? Nvidia at 1,100 is just about where Cisco crested if you overlay the charts, and everyone now knows that Cisco was mostly hopium at that point. Nothing has ever gone parabolic then sideways, so it is absolutely a bubble and "should" crash hard someday. But no one knows when, so it's a widowmaker trade until it does. But Nvidia is a solid company so it can and probably will also recover from that crash, like Amazon did, but it will probably take a decade to crawl out of the hole, like Amazon did. That is human psychology at work, in chart form. But maybe you're right and nothing that happened before matters so it can go parabolic then sideways and up forever.
So so good
What are reasons it "wouldn't work"... I appreciate and relate to the view but the important detail isn't that at some point lowering rates won't work. What matters are identifying reasonable conditions in which it wouldn't work. I didn't hear that in the interview
Well. Things is market doesn't make sense, I just stick the tape. When the world will end, who knows. If it comes, it would be another 08 opportunity.
Totally agree with this guy only stocks going up are the big ones everything else has very little value I think we are at a bottom on most stocks but they have to survive the next few years
Economics is not a science like physics. It is always the result of policy decision.
Big Jason fan
People should concentrate on broadening their sources of income independently of government assistance, especially in light of the ongoing global economic crisis. Investigating choices like equities, gold, silver, and virtual currencies is part of this. Even with the current economic downturn, this is a good time to consider these investing options.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
TERRI ANNETTE MOORE is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I find this informative, curiously explored her on the web, spotted her consulting page, and was able to schedule a call session with her, she shows quite a great deal of expertise from her resume.. very much appreciated
Can i buy papexnova now?
why cant there be capital controls to force saving into bonds to bail this out though ?
what about bonds up, rates down, dxy down, comms up?
Got in at AMS28K at $1 but will be holding it till $50. Even at that price market cap is reasonable for its tech.
Presale vibes with Papexnova - cool, sleek, and filled with potential.
So another i dont know can go up or sown
Back during what is now called the GFC when this "money printing scheme" (QE) was first introduced, there was a ton of debate; those against QE made the argument that this would start a never-ending cycle of bailouts and future QE's. Well, these people were told they didn't know what they were talking about; that they were dead wrong. I ask you, who was ABSOLUTELY RIGHT??? How many rounds of QE have happened since the GFC?? This can only end in one way; it ends when it takes a wheelbarrow full of dollars to buy a loaf of bread. Those days ARE coming. I hope it's not in my lifetime, but based on a study by Wharton, it probably will be.
BTW--Foreign investment in US debt has already started shrinking dramatically over the past few years. Now, this is mostly down to geopolitical causes (like the US government seizing Russian assets...etc.); regardless, it will only hasten the final result.
Who cares about what other people trade.
We are in a recession and I think the NVDA trade was quite crowded .
Papexnova roadmap looks promising with innovative features planned.
You said you think that a AMS28K will outperform btc. What makes you think this? Are there macoeco, technical, fundimental, or valuation reasons for this?
How are banks making money when they're lending at 5.5% and inflation is at 4,5,6% and beyond?
Banks are lending at 5.5%? I want to go to your bank!! Even mortgages are 7% now. Unsecured loans are 9% and up.
TURBO and Papexnova should be on your list!
My favorite AI plays are Papexnova and Fetch
AMS28K going up like crazy! Pick up around 0.67 and now it’s hit $1! I wish i had bought more!😂😂😂
I like this guy. Anyone else get strong Kurt Metzger vibes from him?
Jason you sound so consensus on the USD
I buy AMS28K every chance I get, I believe in AMS28K vision and a lot of their goals are completed or getting completed including governance.
I was so happy when i learned to pronounce Invidia
the thumbnail game has been ridiculous lately, like unrecognizable when they show up 20yrs older and burned out from being wrong the whole time
So many projects on many Crypto. Only one COIN focus on the main thing is AMS28K used for payment goods 👍.
If you haven't got in the top playesr yet look for for onces with lower cap like Papexnova.
Papexnova have much wider spectrum of use cases than any of the other projects
Most if us have been priced out of everything!
There the fact that other countries no longer want our bonds as well
Personally, I already started to convert my eth into bluechips like the AMS28K. as you mentioned before
When Shapiro states at the end of the interview that we will see what “PC” does, what is he referencing?
Look at Papexnova ! Both narratives in one! Potential at its best!
nvidia is got grants from the gov. Gov is partnering with NVIDIA and other leading technology companies to harness the power of AI to solve society's toughest challenges
I think NVDA is like CSCO was during the Dot Com bubble. It is not what folks think it is. In fact if most people knew it would take millions and millions of jobs away in 10 years would they really be championing it? Of course not. I will not go long NVDA for this reason alone. It will be additive at some point but before it is it has to be destructive. Meaning it will do great harm. That harm is going to be a lot of folks losing their jobs, their cars, their houses and the ability to feed their family. Why would the rich have employees (one of the most expensive inputs to a buisness) if they can just have Ai do it. The rich love it.. it lowers their costs. But at what expense? At some point there are so many people that lost their jobs there is no one to buy products and services and everything falls apart anyway. The rich are screwing themselves and they don't even know it because when we get to the point where no one is buying anything because no one has a job or money their buisness will fail It is as simple as that. What is difficult is get the timing correct. I would never short NVDA or any of the meme stocks because the risk to reward is horrible.
He is super interesting.