WARREN BUFFET Investing Strategy ENHANCED by trading Berkshire Hathaway
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 พ.ค. 2024
- Warren Buffet's portfolio is contained within his holding company Berkshire Hathaway.
His stock picks are considered to be from a value investing style approach.
In this video I show you how we can trade Berkshire Hathaway for improved returns with far less risk.
Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger collectively manage the Berkshire Hathaway fund, so why not use their expertise of selecting the best stocks AND build a trading strategy around them.
Through a simple trading strategy you can learn how to outperform the stock market, considerably.
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As a professional trader I have consumed hundreds of financial books and endured countless hours of self education. My hope is that this channel will reduce the learning curve duration of many aspiring traders by providing the key information in a concise and enjoyable manner.
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For years I’m musing about a complementary approach - one would be geared towards focussed and concentrated stock selection without rebalancing to catch Cisco or AAPL like situations and the other is more Top down balanced (dual momentum like) with sensible leverage applied as undeniably money is made by extremely successful companies. Great content on this channel. Probably best on YT in this field.
From India🇮🇳.।।। Bro.।। I really love to listen u.
I learn alot from your video.
Another Excellent Video in Both Content and Presentation! Thank you!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Saw this yesterday . Wrote the scan last night. Thank you. This has given me focus on where I could backtest a stock model. Do not get me wrong, I love the double MACD model.
👍
I love this channel that probably changed me. Love the approach but I still wonder the impact of taxes each time you sell.
Good Video. Thank you!
I absolutely love your content. The style, tempo and manner in which you deliver your message, coupled with appropriate visuals, is stunning to say the least.
Please share with me the name of the story boarding software you use for your presentations and whether you hire a company to do the animations and images for you or you do all that yourself.
In fact, a video on how you research the information, compile all your talking points cohesively and then execute on the vision would be grand!
I want to put together a story boarding scenario like this on money management (budgeting) for my teenage daughters and your pointing me in the right direction would be most helpful.
Hi Silver - Thanks. I use Videoscribe and do everything myself. No particular strategy just research and trying to make the concept digestible in a concise manner... good luck!
@@FinancialWisdom thanks for the reply. Just for curiosity, how long does it take you to produce one of these videos after you've read a book and have taken notes?
@@nothing_burger 24 hours... 3 x 8hr days usually. For a 10 minute video
This is an excellent video. Thank you so much!
Thank you...
A very nice video! There are two things I would like to see added to make it more realistic. One, costs due to taxes, commissions, and slippage. Two, you make the assumption that during times when one is not invested that you can find another investment that offers a greater return. I find this only holds true if you can find investments that are uncorrelated with the broader equity markets. If you are using a tax advantaged account, like a self directed retirement account, my first point on taxes vanishes, although commissions and slippage remains, but I believe my second point is still valid. Keep up the very informative videos.
For the second point you'd be looking for a low beta. So holding bonds or commodities would be a good example.
@@Danielle_1234 Bond and equites % return will be low. And this return is smaller than buy and hold overall unless you find equally good returns.
Alternatively, you can short BRK.B during your times out of Berkshire using the inverse of the long rules.
Many thanks Gareth. Yes simplicity is a better option than complexity. The dual MACD approach is a great concept. Every time I read about people's saying that Warren Buffett has lost his touch, I smile quietly.
Thanks William 🙏
Great analysis as usual mate
Much appreciated
Great content! thanks!! Love your videos!
One question: In the case of a non-leverage dual MACD strategy described in this video don´t the taxes and commissions cancel out the potential gains compared to the buy-and-hold approach?
Buy from within an IRA
Amazind videom As always very informative ... Keep it up the good job.!
Thanks a lot!
The monthly MACD does a great job in signaling when to get out of a stock or market. Interesting to see the bearish signal forming in MSFT now. I would use a leveraged ETF like UPRO/TQQQ instead of margin. I would enter only if the MACD signal line in sloping up.
Nice approach
Thank you for the wonderful video!
I was just wondering where I can find the MACD graph?
Hi - It is a trading indicator which can be added to any chart (in most chart packages)
Thank you so much for sharing this amazing concept 🌹
Most welcome 😊
OMG.. such great knowlage for free... THANK YOU! :*
Glad it was helpful!
Incredible source of investment!
Very informative. Can you make review on the book "trade about to happen"?
brilliant, thank you!
You're welcome!
I love your analysis! All of your content has something to be learned from.
I would point out for the long hold game, you are ignoring options. You could easily sell covered calls to reduce cost basis WEEKLY during periods of drawdown. This is something anyone with large size should be doing with long positions.
I've little bit less knowledge about options but yes we can short future stocks in drawdown phase 👍
In case of selling calls in a down weekly timeframe , I think you´d better trade off daily chart taking minor swings as entry point, so you can get decent primes with OTM calls sold and avoid rebounds.
Might be because one option includes 100 shares. Even if you take BRK.B you will be invested with at least 28.000$ - in ONE company. Not to mention BRK.A ;). If your account is big enough options (also on BRK) are fine but I think the viewers of this channel might have not the (in technical or financial aspects) suitable account for this. E.g. if you trade with 2:1 leverage and want to invest 10% in BRK.B and use options your account has to be at least 150.000 USD. Maybe thats why he left it. Anyway - this content is awesome. Thumbs up!!!
awesome. I am fan of your unvaluable videos :)
Thanks! 👍
I wonder if you could do the same thing but with day\week MACD
Excellent thanks
Does monthly MACD & Weekly MACD mean monthly and weekly time frames?
Love the content and the simplicity but can’t ignore the short term capital gains implications.
Thanks Compound...
Great work! You have a great channel! Does this method also work for the NASDAQ 100?
possibly, try looking back at the chart
Your videos are great! Thanks!
Where do you put the initial-stoploss at the beginning of a trade with this setup?
Because this is a diversified fund no stop loss is used.
Hi! To fully understand the dual MACD approach: the monthly MACD line above the signal line is considered as a positive trading window. About the entry decision: Do I avoid the weekly MACD crossovers below the zero histogram line to avoid false signals? Why I'm asking: The MACD line crossing the zero line implies the faster MA crossing the slower MA, a similar strategic idea as explained in the 10/20 EMA crossover video.
Question: If using this strategy in an account with bi-weekly contributions, would you invest those contributions into the same position (increasing your cost basis)? Or would you keep that money kept in cash (or in another position) until you exit and are ready to make another entry (based on the signal)?
Secondly, would this same strategy work on a 3x leverage ETF like SPXL or TQQQ?
Top shelf!
I can't believe it ! Simply amazing !
🙏
nice video! just request can you make video on time frame which time frame will better?
CFDs and spread betting which is the best for long time trading into stock?
Noted
Thanks
Welcome
You sure love these indicator based strategies. I remember we had a discussion before on your BTC strategy. The MAJOR flaw I see is the data the macd's are using. People will get different entries which equates different drawdown and profit percentages. None the less. Using indicators in Higher Timeframes is the only way to get reliable signals which this does give.
Cheers!
Thanks j
Very interesting. Thanks. For short term trading can we use weekly MACD and daily MACD?
Not for this stock.
I love the simplicity of your trading approach. I will apply this to ARKK
👍
Well this raises a good point, does the MACD strategy need a relatively stable porfolio? is arkk as stable as BH portfolio? Will the BH portfolio not change in time? Cheers
How did that work out for you? Stopped out?
@@avernvrey7422 No signal given... been in cash for 10 months now
@@lio_k Well, hopefully bonds or cash-like instruments, or there's some opportunity cost right there...
Very very nice video sir 👌
I love your video.... ❤️
So nice of you Lakhan
what if you would do a trailing stop loss once the macd crosses below?
This is an amazing video! I love all the trading stories. They are all filled with wealth in the end. I'd love to start winning with trading.
You can do it!
You could be right, but consider the fact of their portfolio size, it is impossible to sell and re-buy in and out so easily at the price as a small trader, they may need weeks or months to unload all the stocks, and the price may change also.What I have read is most of them will hedge against the drop in price, but how do they hedge, shorting S & P 500? Maybe you can do a video on hedging.
Sound good strategy for investor
Brilliant! Makes a lot of sense and to me is coincident, pretty much, with the strategy I've be honing down to over the last few years. 👍
NoAxe
Thanks! 👍
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I'm so convinced that this is the best compromise strategy I tweeted the link to video again today, ie.
'THIS is the type of system EVERYONE should look at! It's a variation of what I've homed in on over many years. It's a gr8 summary of general approach There's variations on twin MACD approach if U want. I use shorter term version but PRINCIPLE is the same!'
I only make the later point because of my age!! :) My strength is TA so the idea of trading the stocks chosen by experts in the field has just GOT to make sense unless you've got NO sense!! :) My variation is to scan/screen for stocks and then use the Ticker in social media to see what the fundamental specialists think about it.... and sometimes the other way around.
Key Pup the good work. I've always thought your bite size videos are superb in concept and realisation!
NoAxe
thanks Noacks👍
Would selling the short using inverse rules work?
So do you not use the dual MACD strategy anymore?
wow, love it
Thank you! Cheers!
What do you mean by leverage? Please explain it and also please make a video on it
Hi - I have made a video.
Similar to a mortgage on a property, you use the financial institutes money to enhance returns.
Excelente contente ..
🙏 Thanks
Great video as usual! I like the idea of trading with leverage but how do you personally keep the costs down of trading with leverage? Usually you have to pay a daily overnight fee to keep the trades open which greatly increases cost as I understand it
Hi Samy - If you have the right strategy in the right environment then the leveraged portion of returns should outweigh those costs
@@FinancialWisdom yes thanks, are you aware of a broker that has particularly low margin loan fees? What is a typical yearly margin loan interest rate?
Thanks for your channel. What happens if you include trading costs? my broker charges £10 per trade buy and sell. There is also the spread which has to be paid the wrong way when buying and selling.
It really depends on your positions size, a £10 cost for a 10,000 position is a small %, whereas £10 cost for a 500 position is significant. The spread cost on mid to large cap stocks are very small and not too significant. Micro caps can be expensive to trade however.
Danke!
Thank you!
can you share code for this strategy? I backtested this one, but didn't get the same returns, the returns are significantly lower
You seem to have different strategies for different assets...
Growth: W MACD + zero line
BRK: Month MACD + Week MACD
Crypto: Weekly MACD + Daily MACD
Is it due to volatility characteristics of each?
Pretty much yes, each asset behaves differently for numerous reasons, volatility is certainly one
What if you just used a 20 or 50 weekly MA crossover strategy?
What if you applied to the strategy to BRK top 3-5 holdings (since that's most of where their returns are coming from)
You have the best value investor in the world guiding the value part of your portfolio.
Good idea
Just curious, do you know of anyone who has implemented this strategy or in the process of implementing a similar investing strategy across a similar timeframe?
Just myself on this timeframe
@@FinancialWisdom very cool stuff man!
Would you not put an initial stop loss when you entered your position?
No. The risk is limited by position size and eventual macd cross
Thank you very much for all the tremendous wisdom you are transferring through your video presentations. I recently come across your videos and learned a lot from this credible work. I lost all my money (£20000) CFD trading in plus500 platform) and now only left £300 but I'm still not giving up.
You are so welcome.
That's a shame, but you are not on your own, many people learn the hard way. The key is that you do learn what went wrong.
Would you be willing to share your trades with me which cost you your loss, I could review, feedback my findings and perhaps even create a video. There are so many videos/stories of what went well but very few of the dark side, but its these stories that everyone could learn from. Just let me know?
@@FinancialWisdom Thanks for the quick reply. Yes, I can share my story as I'm one of those on the dark side. I started trading in May 2020 with £100 after few wins toped £3900 and then £10,000 and later added more funds. However, as the lose (liquidation) happened over two years up to now, the data is so big to mention here. (If I get your email I can send a copy of it.) My account was mainly killed due to huge position size, poor risk management and going against trend......!!!?? Thanks again,
@@semerewoldaybairu4375 admin@edgeinvestor.co.uk
I love your strategy but what about taxes? Are most of these trades >1 year so as to pay only long term capital gains?
Yes long term taxes would be applied unless you can use spread betting in the UK for example
One big issue with utilizing this is that you'd want to utilize Herkshire B as Herkshire A is unfractionable on most brokerages and is the cost of a median house per share.
There are a few IG Index in the Uk, Interactive Brokers etc
I ran backtest for this strategy on SPY / ES Future, QQQ / NQ Future. The Drawdown was huge during Covid 2020!
In good case loss almost all the earning from the previous 20 years, and in the bad cases the Draw down was over 100%.
On which instrument this video simulate that low drawdown?
I've also done the backtesting, seems like buy and hold still reigns supreme
There's no way you can lose 20Y of earnings with MACD or any technical analysis method
Sir,
Does your breakout strategy work with TD Ameritrade? That's my platform.
Hi Donnie - Yes any platform...
Since 2008 BRK has underperformed SP500. 2008 was a reset and Buffet's holdings in banks got bailed out.
Lol exactly. I wonder why buffet fanboies kept circlejerking about BRK.
I enjoy the clarity of your videos and am big fan. However this time I have tried to replicate you results using the same stock BRK.A and dual MACD strategy. I cannot replicate your results as shown on your video. My settings on is MADC is 26,12,9 SMA . There were some periods close to your results but most other periods resulted in number of whipsaws on MACD that evaporated any gains or just broke even. My entry and exit are go long when MACD crosses upwards on monthly and sell on weekly cross down and buy on weekly cross up until the monthly crosses down.
Any suggestions would be helpful to get me on the same results.
Are you using the wick of the closing candle (after cross) to place a stop loss?
@@FinancialWisdom Yes. I followed your methodology on the stop loss. Where I see the problem is that the MACD I use shows more crosses under and then over compared to yours shown briefly on the video.
Do you use another setting to smooth out the MACD?
The reality is that This happens more frequently on periods where markets trade sideways creating more stop outs and whipsaw entries even on the weekly charts. All indicators have this inherent problem.
Would you be able to post the actual trades taken to support the strategy being shown as a learning tool for this video.
Keep up the great work.
Can you tell when this whipsaws happened? Maybe try an alternative: buy when the High of the "Entry Candle" is broken. That might improve it a little bit.
I was trying to replicate the rate of return claimed on BRK video following the rules of entry and exit. I was unsuccessful as a few of my entries would get stopped out
I think it would be best if the actual entires and exits are posted on the video to prove that strategy can work and for the follower of the channel to learn and have more confidence in your teaching.
What is lacking in the video is that the strategy makes a claim of rate of return but only shows a summary of the results without actual proof. Without the data then the strategy may not be as robust as presented.
@@md-oe4wg When I look in the chart my last two trades would have been from 235->270 USD (12/20-07/21) and 297->320 USD (12/21-05/22). So both of them were (very) successful. Method on BRK.B with breaking the High. MACD is not a Holy Grail but one of (if not) the best indicators to work with. Maybe you can tell where you got the problems exactly?
While I don't disagree with your risk reduction method and the ability to invest in other vehicles, if you bought Berkshire in April 2002 your total return as of April 2022 would be approx. 630% vs the 225% of the MACD method. The CAGR comparison of 20 years invested vs 6.2 years invested implies you could trade something else during the noninvested time that would get you close to the 35% CAGR you would be getting with the buy and hold.
But dont forget, by limiting risk you can use margin to increase returns far greater than buy and hold.
Over the last 20 years buy and hold return CAGR is about 10.8%. You mentioned 35.1%. Please explain.
Also, at 9:49, the screen shows ROI = 225%, Period = 6.4 Years gives a CAGR of 35%. The figure of 35% is based on 225/6.4, the simple annual average return which ignores compounding and the actual CAGR which is is 13.5%
Hello i m from India, how can I invest in US stocks? Pls 🙏 guide me
Join our group
What is leverage?
Like a mortgage, you put a 10% deposit to control 100% of the value of the property. Most brokers offer a Margin account which is in effect leverage.
Where will I get 8 x leverage can u tell that ??
I advise no more than 3 to 1. Most brokers ie interactive brokers, IG index.
Portfolio margin will give around 6:1 BRK.B. Ymmv.
Awesome leaning video again, thanks for sharing 🙋🏻♂️👍♥️♥️♥️♥️💖💖💖💖💖💖
⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔ I've a request. Pls make such a video based on EMA & RSI strategy in which I select & track stocks from monthly chart and entry exit on weekly charts.
⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔ So that I can remain in both up & downside by go long as well as go short strategy.
⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔⛔ Here in India we can have both long & short in FUTURE & OPTIONS stocks only. That's why we can have both side trading opportunities to catch.
Pls make such video ASAP. Thank you 🙏🙏🙏🙏💐💐💐💐💐💐💐💞
How odd you dont have any videos on jim simons
Yet...😉
somehow my macd with the same settings gives me totally different results
Are you looking at monthly macd and then weekly macd? Also A or B stock.
8:1 leverage is not allowed and cage chnages when uncle sam comes in for short term
play
It is possible if you have a professional account. % to 1 is typical for a retail trader - Although I only use up to 2.5 to 1
the last 20 years we got no yields. lets see what the new Gamechanger Mr. Powell shakes this stock to new deeps in future now.....
Where would one get 8:1 leverage? Lol, I guess through futures eh?
Why dont you show your strategy to warren??
lol - I would not be able to use it, his funds are too big and therefore he is not able to be as nimble...
@@FinancialWisdom anyway, i dont think warren would sell if the market goes down, usually he holds a cash position to buy cheap when the market crash
I love this!. Please what is the best way to make money from crypto investments this period?
Been making my research lately..
I really recommend Mrs Helen Carter. She's been the key to my successful life and a few of my friends also trade with her. I earn approximately 60k every month with her help and guidance.
@@evelyndiaz8434 Please how can I get in touch with this Ms Helen Carter. I've actually heard a lot about her
@@larrymorris4120 Her tele gram handle 👇
@@larrymorris4120
Use👇rname
@@larrymorris4120 Frexhel
Have you considered doing a video on Richard Driehaus he died recently hedge fund averaged over 30% for nearly 2 decades considered the father of momentum investing he is in the market wizard books hedge fund wizards with jack scwaeger
I'll check it out thanks...
Progress they say shows when hard work is put into a venture. I was experiencing lapses in putting enough work into trading, and my job made it nearly impossible for me to earn. Until I came across Brian Harding, turned my life around, I'm so grateful
Brian Harding is a well-renowned broker, but what marvels me about him is the fact that regardless of the huge profits he generates and the effort he puts in making these profits, his commission is very fair.
The stock market is one of the most potential places to invest your money, investing in stock is often risky which draws attention to the huge gains and losses of investors, if you can manage the risk then you can take advantage of the stock market to secure your financial position and earn money
What a coincidence!!! I trade with him also Brian Harding have been the reason behind my success in trading. Meeting this man has been a blessing, i never thought i would make so much profits in a short period of time
How to reach him pls Eddie
@@juanpedro742 TradewithBrianHarding(a)Gmai Lcom...Is he taking commissions for trades? Yes, he does
Again I have backtested this dual MACD strategy weekly + daily and monthly + weekly. There are way better strategies imo
I use IG index for the charting which has variance to others.
wrong.
Thanks
Too much curve fitting in this nonsense video.
A better idea is to buy & hold Berkshire Hathaway for 20 to 45 years (or linger) in a 401K account, and add money each year.
Thanks😊
MACD is dangerous when used in a choppy market as it will almost always put you in too late and take you out too late. Take UTSL for instance. If you were to use this method on that you'd lose your ass rather than just staying in it. This video is missing a LOT of info and therefore is really, really bad advice. You've got some good content on your channel, but this is NOT part of it. Traders beware!
Hi Das - I always take on board feedback, however steering people away from a solid approach is not great advice.
It is an approach which I have used for 20+ years and has done very well. Take into account I only use this strategy on stocks which have performed well with this strategy historically. Some stocks behave rather consistently other not so.
I have not looked at UTSL but if it has not worked in the past I would not consider it in the future. Are you looking at UTSL etf? and are you using the 'dual' MACD approach
@@FinancialWisdom Thanks for the reply. I have no doubt that you have, otherwise you wouldn't have posted it. However, many people that watch this will simply think, 'oh I can just do these two things for any security and I'm good', which is clearly not the case as you alluded to in your reply. That's the kind of info that's missing in the video that makes it dangerous to new traders.
For example, you said, "... I only use this strategy on stocks which have performed well with this strategy historically." That's a critical piece of information that's not in the video. That information also needs further explanation as well though. What does 'performed well' actually mean? How long of a time frame is 'historically'? Is there a certain number of times this strategy should have worked for it to be considered viable? What it if hasn't worked in the past X years, but worked for decades in the past, is it still viable? It's these kinds of details that are important to strategy videos like this, and when they're omitted they can become dangerous in inexperienced hands.
Let's take the UTSL example. Has that ETF even been around long enough for the strategy to use? If not, how long should a stock/ETF have been around to use this strategy? Assuming that it is, what would qualify/disqualify the strategy for use on that ETF?
I think you see what I'm getting at. While there are certainly many ways to make money in the market, they all need detailed explanations rather than a simple, single example of it working and a comparison of its effectiveness vs another investing/trading strategy. This is bad practice in general and I see it a LOT from charlatans, grifters and scam artists trying to peddle a course or membership of some sort - not that you're one of them. All I'm saying is if you're going to put out a video like this, do better. We all have come to expect more from you.
@@dasfahrer8187 It's not Financial Wisdom's responsibility to baby everything down for the moron.
I for one appreciate Financial Wisdom's content. It's rare for someone to share alpha and to be so clear about it.
@@Danielle_1234 Clearly not what I'm asking for and it's dishonest of you to make such a suggestion.
But they have so much equity that the time in which they will sell the stock, the stock will again moving up and now they have to buy again a large qty leading to a greater avg price and hotchpotch