Cap, I know you're concerned about your voice, but you sound perfectly fine to me, and I don't think anyone else could match your style. You have a unique wit and a charming personality, and as long as you can speak comfortably in this sort of situation I (and certainly others) will keep listening. Thanks for what you do, it's always nice to settle in with a GR video after a long day at work❤
Maybe they just want an excuse to use F-35/F-22 instead? Seems that's what the "modern" scenarios are focused around... equipment not in the actual game.
@mpeugeot the f15js would follow the f35s and f22s in flight I would assume. And taking that out also made it possible to run the Sim as dcs wasn't utilizing caps powerhouse 5900x correctly
Funnily enough, I visited the public viewing platform at Kadena in June. A bunch of F-22's were under canopies, and F-16's were flying... as well as a pair of RC-135 (Cobra Ball and Combat Sent), and some C-130's.
With no humans playing, why not just run the sim at low speed the whole time, pack as much action into that as you can, then accelerate the recorded footage back to normal speed for the video?
Not a bad idea. Maybe Cap could just do this with very low speed and record the whole thing and then he can come back and watch it like a replay, narrating the whole thing. But the problem is that DCS isn't very good at recording entire battles especially when there's more things happening (before it gets corrupted)
@@giovannyc.1724 Yeah it could work to do it voice-over style. But rather than using a DCS replay, just video record it and speed the video up to normal speed while doing the voice over.
Hi Cap! I know you've done at least several dozen China V America carrier battles and I do very much enjoy them, but I always think back to the Red Flag exercises done by US INDOPACOM in 2019 that deemed that the USN would almost certainly be unable to protect it's carrier groups from the PLARF and PLN hypersonics arsenal, and would lose 1-2 carriers or even carrier groups in just the first 3 days if they traveled any closer to China than the 3rd Island Chain (i.e. Guam.) This finding was the primary impetus for the launching of the F/A-XX program, as a very large fighter with significant fuel, fuel efficiency, and a deep magazine is the only thing that could reliably hit Chinese air targets from American flattops without being wiped out by mass hypersonics strikes. As a result, doctrine for the USN is instead to use groups of much smaller LHDs with a larger compliment of F-35Bs to distribute our jets across multiple vessels that the PLARF are far less likely to use the DF-17 and DF-21 on. While these ships and their escorts have a few options for carrying out anti-shipping operations, they would be supplemental to the primary anti-shipping force in the South China Sea: the immense US nuclear missile submarine fleet. With more than 60 submarines at the Navy's disposal equipped with as many as 154 TLAMs (as well as MK48 torpedoes), just 2 or 3 Boomers could potentially do as much or likely even more damage to a Chinese fleet than a Nimitz-class supercarrier could, and with the added benefit of being nigh undetectable prior to launch and able to launch them at a much closer proximity to their targets. I'd love to see a wargame showing how destructive a few SBMMs and LHDs could be in concert with one another, if that is something within your abilities in DCS!
You do know that in all red flag exercises with Allies, the U.S. nerfs itself significantly just so that it's allies have a chance, right? U.S. never fights without handicaps if it's with allies.
@@ObiWanShinobi917 look at all of the Pacific strategy papers the DoD and USINDOPACOM have released they said themselves that they would withdraw carriers from the South China Sea during a conflict. On top of that, they performed simulated exercises of 4 different conditions ranging from unrealistically optimal circumstances to unrealistically poor circumstances.
Great video and anaysis Cap! As usual. It seems when the 5th gen jets close to furball range, all bets are off. And the Chinese jets with PL-15 are a potent threat. If Blue air stood off and sniped, the result would be very different.
Great video, I would love to see some implementation of MDACS/HGWS. Could have a massive impact in price and added ability if it’s fielded in time (planned for 2027 I believe).
The United States of America still possesses 45 F-117s in flyable condition and it has been reported that the Air Force still operates 4, could they be used against China in a war of attrition? I mean, having a stealth aircraft is better than not having a stealth aircraft.
Well F-117s are Air to Ground only, so they don’t really help that much in a war of attrition. Their main use is testing radars against and war games detecting them. Never say never but things are pretty desperate if they need them
@@winelive5500 I know that they are only useful in an anti-ground role and that’s why I recommended it, F-22 and F-35s are more precious and can also be used for other roles, like providing air superiority, it would be really hard to convince somebody to send precious aircraft when they could use aircraft just as useful that can’t be used for other roles.
The f117 doesn’t have an air to air radar, if any at all, Jerry rigging a potent radar plus missles to a 30+year old jet it would just be easier to build another f35.
Thanks for the video Cap. I believe (strongly) that the Patriot is modeled well under actual performance. It seems like there's a really short range of engagement, as the batteries only open up right as the incoming missiles nears the actual land of the island. I believe the interceptions would begin well forward of that, especially with Aegis/other sensors networked.
yea, but that would take days or weeks to set up and would probably be noticed so there would be a carrier battle group or 2 in the area. but they cant simulate that scale.
I didn't see a direct answer to my earlier text about trying to be as close as possible to reality when it comes to NATO response or attacks to the new AXIS. I was speaking about how people would vote. Keeping everything short, I am happy with the content since that time. You do excellent work. Keep it up guy. I love it. ❤
along side that kinzhal-like hypersonic missile in the Chinese air force expo, there is a storm shadow-like stealth cruise missile akf98a, you can give that a try as well
I know DCS is your tool for simming this, and it's great to watch, but I can't help thinking what this would be like in Command: Modern Ops... less graphics, but more detailed systems sim. You seem to be getting into larger ops and it almost feels like the natural progression (at least occasionally!)
The E3 would be patrolling much closer to China with a fighter escort. The Chinese bombers would be spotted much sooner and the fighters scrambled much sooner. After spotting the attack the E3 would retreat towards its base and remain active and relatively safe. Earlier scramble and bombers would be intercepted before firing missiles.
The issue with hypersonics is that they travel so fast, that your area defense systems like Patriot become point defense systems. F-22s could've supercruised to the fight so they wouldn't need to light their burners at all. The air defense might've worked better with two more destroyers on the field but if everything went in the Blue Team's favor, all the time, the battles would be boring.
I think the deconfliction of the Patriot and NASAMS was more of a negative than a positive thing. To reliably hit ballistic missiles, you want to overmatch with interceptors. Also, you saw Patriot and NASAMS at Andersen AFB hold fire at missiles coming directly at them because Patriot and NASAMS at Olf Orote (much further away) already fired interceptors.
Excellent simulation. But there is still one thing to note: considering the distance from mainland China to Okinawa, Chinese fighter jets need to reserve a considerable amount of fuel for return, while the United States does not. This will affect the manoeuvrability and payload of Chinese aircraft.
Cap, thank you so much for updating one of my favorite battles! The quality and reality of everything has improved out of sight over the past 2 years and I know this has taken a lot of effort on your part and those in your team. Great camerawork and love your narration! Hm, would the air performance have improved if just the raptors went in fast?
The problem is DCS does not multi task at all. You can not build a computer to run it faster. I was going to give them one of my 32 processor Xeons but it wont actually use the horsepower. Plus it runs on windows only so it can't use all of the protocols on the processor like the hardware compiler so it can't even use all of one processor correctly. They do not know what they are doing at DCS this code based on early 90's code. They did finally make use of a second processor but it does not do much. They need to learn more about distributed load before modern multiprocessing can be exploited.
@@stupidburp Did MS actually optimize its code? I doubt it. They always say that. I would not use an AMD in this application as they have lots of sync problems with DCS. That comes from dropped packets and lost error correction. The RAM you use with that AMD usually does a calculation 7 times before it gets it right or gives up and moves on. A Xeon with ECC RAM many have a lower clock speed but having the error correction done with a cloment filter in the RAM allows you to do the calculation once and is there for faster in this type application. None of this really maters till DCS joins us in the modern day with distributed load. What they should really do is get it to run on Linux and Mac and use the M1 its 20 years ahead of Intel and AMD. the M1 would do the distributed load for them and allow them to catch up with the rest of the world. All they have to do is get the SDK from Apple and compile it for Linux and Mac. I did this with X-Plane 26 years ago.
@@anthonyb5279 MS didn't really do much of the work. AMD supplied them with most of the code. It just took a while for MS to get around to putting it in a patch. The performance boost in games was verified independently by multiple testers, some recent videos are available on a few channels with the test results. Intel has some good chips, I use some myself. They also have some bad chips. Major customers have been complaining about the performance and longevity of the last couple of generations. This is now known to partly be due to errors at the fab that cannot be completely fixed with software, thus there are going to be some costly recalls. Recent updates have reduced performance to attempt to mitigate the issues to some degree. There appear to be multiple issues going on. AMD has their own issues, mostly with marketing setting up unreasonable expectations for gaming performance. in the latest generation. But the recent Windows patch more than made up for that even in last generation CPUs. The patch by the way only helped under Windows because they were already achieving full performance in Linux.
Love these videos. Just a thought - if an attack were deemed imminent, intel would certainly give them at least a few hours’ warning of a large-scale Chinese mobilization for invasion. Could you redo this but with the US and Japan maintaining a CAP of say, 4 F-22’s and 4 F-15J’s (with tanker support) around 300 miles west of Okinawa?
It should be noted that short range HE frag type SAMs like the ESSM isn't going to completely destroy a 1ton+ ballistic missile. In CMANO thats modelled where smaller, non hit-to-kill missiles has a chance to simply fail to destroy a warhead or merely deflect a warhead slightly off course. When defending a large land based target, deflecting a warhead might not make much of a difference.
Great vid Cap, thank you! Imagine if the US could develope a SAM similar to the s400 and incorporate it into its navy ships. I would imagine it would be an absolute game changer. Oh, and does DCS utilize submarines? And if so, wouldn't the US fleet here have a couple with it? And don't the submarines carry Minuiteman missiles???
I am suprised you didn't include any of Japans air defense forces. which includes more F-15's, F-35's, and a f-2 which the F-16 would make a good analog. you know they would launch also along with japanese naval assets to assist with US naval forces.
Cap have you seen the CL-1201 that Lockheed designed in the 60s, It was a 6000 ton flying aircraft carrier that could carry 22 fighters and tow a transport plane called LSA . The LSA could carry 9 times the weight of a C5 galaxy so maybe 40 to 45 pallets of LRASMs . Neither plane was ever built for obvious reasons but I'm wondering if you could model them along with some F35s for it. The fighters just get fastened to the wing pylons just like a missile
@@grimreapers you didn't have the server to run an additional 30 F-15J's, but certainly they would have made a dent into the fighter outcomes. Great job nonetheless! I enjoyed watching it.
The F22 keeps its Sidewinders inside internal bays right? So how does the seeker head track its heat signature given off by the target? The plane itself would have to somehow track the heat source, send it to the missile, maybe? Or does it just drop out of the bay and starts trying to find a heat source? In an F16 for example the missile gives you a tone that indicates it’s onto something, let me off the rail. Sorry, these are the questions that I wrestle with when high.
The aircraft gives target data to the missile while it is on the rail. That gives the missile a general idea of where to go before it picks up the target with its own sensors.
Cap, you forgot the Japanese aircraft that would have been at Okinawa. They also are going to take up to another year to fully replace the F-15C/Ds there. More than likely they will be F-35As and F-15Es when finally rotated. The rotation for this should have been 12 F-22s, 12 F-16s, 12 F-35s and 12 F-15Es for the Americans, with another 12 F-15s from the Japanese for the blue side air power.
Bruh, that’s the most realistic video of yours, despite having many flaws like usual. I dislike overrating western capabilities while downgrading the eastern ones. The J-10c for example can carry the PL-15, while the F-16 block 70 can’t carry the AIM 120D4 because it doesn’t exist in the first place, the AIM 120D3 and the AIM 120c8 are still in development, even if it’s done, it won’t reach other countries before the US, so the least to expect them to reach other countries would be in 2027-2028. And there is no evidence that the F-16s could carry such missiles. While the Chinese already have their PL-15s carried by their medium single engine cheap fighter jets, and stealthy ones, keep in mind that their bigger unstealthy jets, like the J-15 and the J-11 could carry the huge PL-17 with extraordinary range up to 400 km. So in reality I guess China would have made a greater mess than what was shown in the video, not the other way around.
The reason why the F-22’s are better than the F-35s is because they are superior in stealth and also superior kinematically. Moreover, they also carry two more missiles.
Somewhere in another universe Cap modeled two c-17 rapid dragons carrying 90 aim260s data linked to awacs. Buh bye J-whatevers and especially the bombers.
One of my Russian programmers always mixes his idioms like "it is slice of cake" and "piece of pie". And btw, he's a good Russian, one of what, 13 in existence?
At 20:48? Caps idiom usage is valid. Having spoken and listened to American English for a bit more than 32 years, I've heard and used "Turns on a dime." and "Stops on a dime." more than I would bother to count.
IRL, that bomber flight would be known about the minute it took off. The F22's would be flown a LOT better. I dunno.... I just don't see it going like that.... But, I'm biased....
There are Japanese F-16 and F-15 squadrons at the other airfield on Okinawa Also adjacent islands. I don't think that maters much unless they are on patrol. Scrambling that many planes is not realistic they would not have that many fueled and armed ready to go. Unless they had advanced intel like with the attack on Israel. BUT if the had intel the planes would be on patrol and more able to intercept at a long distance. If they got the element of surprise it would go mostly like this save the difference electronic warfare would make that DCS does not support. EW would probably stop all the PL-15 helping the fighters survive. Again that does not mater much the mission is to intercept the bombers. In reality I don't see how they could get the jump on Okinawa so this would never happen this way.
this is more of a what if scenario rather than full realism, like the simulation he did on the Chinese sending their navy and Airforce to attack California
@@moonlitfoxling8448 My statement was an answer to his question if the Japanese had assets there too. As far as what if, it would be hard to get element of surprise. IF they did the fighters are not much of a factor, it would come down to the SM3s and Patriots. This shows how important intel is. If they don't know its coming a swarm of missiles could overwhelm the air defense. If they know its coming the bombers wont even get off the runway. However DCS is missing all the EW stuff. The Harris toys are beyond SicFi. The PL15s would be completely negated along with any plane caring them its really not a fair playing field in reality. The ballistic missiles are more difficult we actually have to shot them down. By nature of having heat shielding for reentry they are also EM shielded. Thats why the scenario is interesting, it really validates the swarm attack.
@@lsuperior Umm.... its classified thats why its not in DCS. But they are known rather ambiguously as "Joint Electronics Type Designation System." Google that but you wont find much but more ambiguous words and more words that say just about nothing useful to understand what they do. These go on Destroyers and Carriers, also the F-35 drags 2 of them on a retractable cable. One of the capabilities allow it to spoof the missile with a radar hologram rather than chaff. with some poorly designed missiles like the PL-15 it can fry the electronics or cause a detonation. Can also spoof the self destruct altho that goes agains treaties but it has the capability for when treaties don't apply like when China sells them to the drug cartels. Other capabilities are unjammable or detectable communication. Thats the real scifi stuff like particle entanglement but they are not going to tell you how they do it.
@@anthonyb5279 pssh dont let panzy schmanzy classifications get in the way of saying what you want to say on a youtube forum. What’s the worse that can happen? Besides, all the feds are on the war thunder forums, your secrets are safe here… anyways that helps explain what that drobe is for, didn’t know Harris toys was colloquial term for it.
CAP HOPE YOUR FEELING BETER BUDDY I REALLY HOPE YOUR GOING TO BE OK WE LOVE YA BROTHER YOUR THE BEST AT DCS JUST AWESOME AND NOW SEA POWER AS WELL JUST AWESOME VIDEOZ GOD BLESS YA MAN 🙏 ❤❤❤❤❤
Cap, did you miscalculate the US fighters? During the briefing it says 50 US aircraft, but you only used 38. Should there be 12 more F16/22/35s? It also looked pretty skewed with 24 stealths and 24 4th gens vs 24 stealths and 12 4th gen.
He does mention it in the battle - I think it's only currently confirmed to be carried by the Super Hornet, but I don't see why it couldn't be adapted for the F-16. It would definitely be interesting to see how it would change the outcome.
Given the active Iran/Israel situation (Oct 1) and the US navy being turned loose to shoot anything headed towards Israel, I kinda got to wondering; how much difference does it make if targets being defended by modern guided missile ships are well away from the ships themselves? Say Okinawa being defended from half way to China (with the ballistic missiles going over the top) or Israel being defended from the Persian Gulf (with it being a bit of a side/tail chase)?
Laser based air defense systems exist but are only effective at short range and are more effective against smaller and slower targets such as small drones than against larger and faster ballistic missiles. On the upside they are cheap to fire and never run out of ammo. They are a useful extra layer to add to air defense networks but wouldn’t help that much in this particular game scenario. In real life they would be busy doing work taking down drones all day.
Awesome sim! I think it’s totally a plausible outcome, I strongly prefer it if the US would get their “modernization” into high gear, as well as get back to hosting a strategic superiority in force… 10 years ago it would have been a laughable proposition… 20 years ago and I bet the us could have totally wiped the board…but over the last few decades the US has been growing soft while China has been putting in a legitimate effort to challenge the West.
The vast majority of the supposed Ukraine aid was actually spent on modernizing the US military. Ukraine got the old surplus that was replaced. If we did that on a larger scale we could modernize the entire US military while helping allies with our hand me down equipment.
Hey cap a random viewer all the way from south africa here, I am a big fan of your videos, I watch them all the time. Been watching for a while now already. Shame I see that your voice is giving you problems quite often. So I am a Christian, this is quite random lol but I just felt like I will pray for you that your voice will get better so that you can keep making awesome videos. I believe your voice will get better soon.
Just don't listen to the claims they put out, if it hasn't been tested and utilized in combat, then those claims are on paper only, they work as a scare tactic
Did they though? They emptied their ships missile cells. Lost 38 planes. And only managed to take out one hangar and one patriot battery. The airfield is still very operational and U.S. reinforcements will be arriving soon. Id call this a very clear failure on China's part.
Still problems to get a rendevouz with a Doc? Can't you get a foreign health certificate and come to continental Europe? Your german would be good enough and most german medics speak English anyways, friend. French medics are also great (if you prefer to knock yourself out in normandy with cider and calvados).
Actually I suspect that China may release a large number of balloon drones in prelude to an attack. This would fill up air defenses with targets that could potentially be carrying EW payloads to disrupt communications, GPS, and data links temporarily. They have a few thousand such devices ready for launch from Hainan. Surprise would be extremely difficult to achieve anyways because of the extremely capable US intelligence assets.
Taiwan is closer to China and will be attacked by many land based missiles, drones, and helicopters in addition to all of the above in this scenario. Taiwan requires much thicker defenses. Fortunately for them they do have many hardened aircraft shelters at least but their aircraft available are less capable overall.
I'm honestly perplexed on how the SM-3 going mach 10+ can maneuver well enough to hit the YJ-21's but when it comes to the YJ-21's, they have to slow down to hit their target? Let me guess though, America has somehow managed to make mach 10 missiles maneuver 50-60 g's to hit a target it should otherwise not hit
YJ21s when used against ground targets shouldn't even need to worry about plasma sheaths blocking their radars. They can rely purely on inertial navigation while travelling mach whatever.
@@hughmungus2760 That’s my point, they shouldn’t be that easy to just eliminate 80% of the YJ while again the SM-3 is traveling way faster than but yet that’s totally fine?
The SM-3 is specifically designed to intercept things outside the atmosphere and are under active propulsive thrust until time of intercept. Literally just look it up instead of moaning: The ATK MK 136 solid-fueled third-stage rocket motor (TSRM) fires after the second stage burns out, and it takes the missile above the atmosphere (if needed). The TSRM is pulse fired and provides propulsion for the SM-3 until 30 seconds to intercept. At that point the third stage separates, and the Lightweight Exo-Atmospheric Projectile (LEAP) kinetic warhead (KW) begins to search for the target using pointing data from the launching ship. The Aerojet throttleable divert and attitude control system (TDACS) allows the warhead to maneuver in the final phase of the engagement. The KW's sensors identify the target, attempt to identify the most lethal part of the target and steer to that point.
@@msytdc1577 I’m well aware of its purpose and whether it can do that still remains to be seen. My point again is it’s flying Mach 10+ and still manages to hit at that close of a distance and all that TDACS shit doesn’t affect it so well that it can pull that hard to intercept the missile. That’s my point so you can tell me what I already know but what I saw in game makes zero sense but it is of course a game.
First 2022 Battle: th-cam.com/video/z4krltcsNAw/w-d-xo.html
Second 2022 Battle: th-cam.com/video/aLHcSV8KUzc/w-d-xo.html
2024 Battle: th-cam.com/video/v_kvOiNlBdI/w-d-xo.html
Can't you find the model of j16 in DCS community?
Cap, I know you're concerned about your voice, but you sound perfectly fine to me, and I don't think anyone else could match your style. You have a unique wit and a charming personality, and as long as you can speak comfortably in this sort of situation I (and certainly others) will keep listening. Thanks for what you do, it's always nice to settle in with a GR video after a long day at work❤
Cap, Japan has no less than 30 F-15J's in Okinawa.
Yep
Maybe they just want an excuse to use F-35/F-22 instead? Seems that's what the "modern" scenarios are focused around... equipment not in the actual game.
@mpeugeot the f15js would follow the f35s and f22s in flight I would assume. And taking that out also made it possible to run the Sim as dcs wasn't utilizing caps powerhouse 5900x correctly
Cap said many times he likes to script these battles to make it fair! Reality = BAD
@@Velanestar DCS is extremely badly written code.
@24:32 NASAMS AMRAAM intercepts Patriot missile. Blue-on-Blue
lolol thats funny
millions of dollars gone
Lol, nuts!
Funnily enough, I visited the public viewing platform at Kadena in June.
A bunch of F-22's were under canopies, and F-16's were flying... as well as a pair of RC-135 (Cobra Ball and Combat Sent), and some C-130's.
With no humans playing, why not just run the sim at low speed the whole time, pack as much action into that as you can, then accelerate the recorded footage back to normal speed for the video?
😅👍👍👍
😅 he only has so many hours in a day I guess
Not a bad idea. Maybe Cap could just do this with very low speed and record the whole thing and then he can come back and watch it like a replay, narrating the whole thing. But the problem is that DCS isn't very good at recording entire battles especially when there's more things happening (before it gets corrupted)
@@giovannyc.1724 Yeah it could work to do it voice-over style. But rather than using a DCS replay, just video record it and speed the video up to normal speed while doing the voice over.
Because that's a lot of footage for the poor human to play, then edit and voiceover.
Um what processor are you using? You're definitely due for an upgrade brother.
Bros rocking a i3 6300 wondering whats wrong
@@HeadlessT1111 🤣
Kind of surprised that there’s no THAAD in Okinawa. Seems a bit of an issue considering the neighbors
Japan decided to get AEGIS ashore instead of THAAD, but the project was halted in 2020. They might still be trying to procure it though.
Hi Cap! I know you've done at least several dozen China V America carrier battles and I do very much enjoy them, but I always think back to the Red Flag exercises done by US INDOPACOM in 2019 that deemed that the USN would almost certainly be unable to protect it's carrier groups from the PLARF and PLN hypersonics arsenal, and would lose 1-2 carriers or even carrier groups in just the first 3 days if they traveled any closer to China than the 3rd Island Chain (i.e. Guam.) This finding was the primary impetus for the launching of the F/A-XX program, as a very large fighter with significant fuel, fuel efficiency, and a deep magazine is the only thing that could reliably hit Chinese air targets from American flattops without being wiped out by mass hypersonics strikes.
As a result, doctrine for the USN is instead to use groups of much smaller LHDs with a larger compliment of F-35Bs to distribute our jets across multiple vessels that the PLARF are far less likely to use the DF-17 and DF-21 on. While these ships and their escorts have a few options for carrying out anti-shipping operations, they would be supplemental to the primary anti-shipping force in the South China Sea: the immense US nuclear missile submarine fleet.
With more than 60 submarines at the Navy's disposal equipped with as many as 154 TLAMs (as well as MK48 torpedoes), just 2 or 3 Boomers could potentially do as much or likely even more damage to a Chinese fleet than a Nimitz-class supercarrier could, and with the added benefit of being nigh undetectable prior to launch and able to launch them at a much closer proximity to their targets. I'd love to see a wargame showing how destructive a few SBMMs and LHDs could be in concert with one another, if that is something within your abilities in DCS!
You do know that in all red flag exercises with Allies, the U.S. nerfs itself significantly just so that it's allies have a chance, right?
U.S. never fights without handicaps if it's with allies.
@@ObiWanShinobi917 look at all of the Pacific strategy papers the DoD and USINDOPACOM have released they said themselves that they would withdraw carriers from the South China Sea during a conflict. On top of that, they performed simulated exercises of 4 different conditions ranging from unrealistically optimal circumstances to unrealistically poor circumstances.
What if the Burke's were further out at sea say a hundred miles out, Better overall coverage.
Wouldn't the missiles be too high to intercept at that range? Since they are basically almost in space.
Great video and anaysis Cap! As usual. It seems when the 5th gen jets close to furball range, all bets are off. And the Chinese jets with PL-15 are a potent threat. If Blue air stood off and sniped, the result would be very different.
Even less, the PL-15 is supposed to have longer range than even the AMRAAM-D and is one of the best missiles
Great video, I would love to see some implementation of MDACS/HGWS. Could have a massive impact in price and added ability if it’s fielded in time (planned for 2027 I believe).
The United States of America still possesses 45 F-117s in flyable condition and it has been reported that the Air Force still operates 4, could they be used against China in a war of attrition? I mean, having a stealth aircraft is better than not having a stealth aircraft.
Well F-117s are Air to Ground only, so they don’t really help that much in a war of attrition. Their main use is testing radars against and war games detecting them. Never say never but things are pretty desperate if they need them
@@winelive5500they could maybe be used just to toss stand-off munitions similar to how the Russians use the su-57
@@winelive5500 I know that they are only useful in an anti-ground role and that’s why I recommended it, F-22 and F-35s are more precious and can also be used for other roles, like providing air superiority, it would be really hard to convince somebody to send precious aircraft when they could use aircraft just as useful that can’t be used for other roles.
@@winelive5500 also, it’s a war of attrition where one side has stealth and the other doesn’t it’s better to attack with F-117s than F-18s
The f117 doesn’t have an air to air radar, if any at all, Jerry rigging a potent radar plus missles to a 30+year old jet it would just be easier to build another f35.
Currently stationed on Kadena Airbase. Can confirm there are F-15s, F-16s, F-22s, and F-35s here. Also don’t forget about the P-8A Poseidons lol
Excellent battle; thanks CAP.
Thanks for the video Cap. I believe (strongly) that the Patriot is modeled well under actual performance. It seems like there's a really short range of engagement, as the batteries only open up right as the incoming missiles nears the actual land of the island. I believe the interceptions would begin well forward of that, especially with Aegis/other sensors networked.
One assumes theChinese would launch simultaneously against Japan, Okinawa, and Taiwan. Perhaps even the Philippines.
yea, but that would take days or weeks to set up and would probably be noticed so there would be a carrier battle group or 2 in the area. but they cant simulate that scale.
I didn't see a direct answer to my earlier text about trying to be as close as possible to reality when it comes to NATO response or attacks to the new AXIS. I was speaking about how people would vote. Keeping everything short, I am happy with the content since that time. You do excellent work. Keep it up guy. I love it. ❤
The slower speed's okay. I appreciate the accurate calculations and wargaming over speed
along side that kinzhal-like hypersonic missile in the Chinese air force expo, there is a storm shadow-like stealth cruise missile akf98a, you can give that a try as well
Nice work cap and reapers.
I know DCS is your tool for simming this, and it's great to watch, but I can't help thinking what this would be like in Command: Modern Ops... less graphics, but more detailed systems sim. You seem to be getting into larger ops and it almost feels like the natural progression (at least occasionally!)
Someone buy cap a gigantic dcs server the size of texas. The people need it.
What server are you using? Does DCS allow multiple servers to distribute the load?
5900X AMD - I don't think so.
Time for the community to buy these guys a Threadripper lol
Guam has a land-based AEGIS system as well. I do believe that THAAD has been deployed there. 2 systems for defense against the DF series missiles.
The E3 would be patrolling much closer to China with a fighter escort. The Chinese bombers would be spotted much sooner and the fighters scrambled much sooner. After spotting the attack the E3 would retreat towards its base and remain active and relatively safe. Earlier scramble and bombers would be intercepted before firing missiles.
This was sick, you should do one for Pak, China and India, realistically there is a world where these three get engaged in a brawl.
The issue with hypersonics is that they travel so fast, that your area defense systems like Patriot become point defense systems.
F-22s could've supercruised to the fight so they wouldn't need to light their burners at all.
The air defense might've worked better with two more destroyers on the field but if everything went in the Blue Team's favor, all the time, the battles would be boring.
Smacky ................Smacky ...........Boom ...........Boom (in slow motion)
I think the deconfliction of the Patriot and NASAMS was more of a negative than a positive thing. To reliably hit ballistic missiles, you want to overmatch with interceptors. Also, you saw Patriot and NASAMS at Andersen AFB hold fire at missiles coming directly at them because Patriot and NASAMS at Olf Orote (much further away) already fired interceptors.
Excellent simulation. But there is still one thing to note: considering the distance from mainland China to Okinawa, Chinese fighter jets need to reserve a considerable amount of fuel for return, while the United States does not. This will affect the manoeuvrability and payload of Chinese aircraft.
Cap, thank you so much for updating one of my favorite battles!
The quality and reality of everything has improved out of sight over the past 2 years and I know this has taken a lot of effort on your part and those in your team.
Great camerawork and love your narration!
Hm, would the air performance have improved if just the raptors went in fast?
No need to attack something that won't be there in the future. Tamu Massif
I love your war games and would love to try them myself. Is there anyway you could do a video on how you set up your war games?
If you don't mind me askin cap- what cpu do you have?
5900X AMD
The problem is DCS does not multi task at all. You can not build a computer to run it faster. I was going to give them one of my 32 processor Xeons but it wont actually use the horsepower. Plus it runs on windows only so it can't use all of the protocols on the processor like the hardware compiler so it can't even use all of one processor correctly. They do not know what they are doing at DCS this code based on early 90's code. They did finally make use of a second processor but it does not do much. They need to learn more about distributed load before modern multiprocessing can be exploited.
I suggest upgrading to a 7800X3D. Best bang for the buck on the AMD side and recent Windows updates gave them a huge boost.
@@stupidburp Did MS actually optimize its code? I doubt it. They always say that. I would not use an AMD in this application as they have lots of sync problems with DCS. That comes from dropped packets and lost error correction. The RAM you use with that AMD usually does a calculation 7 times before it gets it right or gives up and moves on. A Xeon with ECC RAM many have a lower clock speed but having the error correction done with a cloment filter in the RAM allows you to do the calculation once and is there for faster in this type application. None of this really maters till DCS joins us in the modern day with distributed load. What they should really do is get it to run on Linux and Mac and use the M1 its 20 years ahead of Intel and AMD. the M1 would do the distributed load for them and allow them to catch up with the rest of the world. All they have to do is get the SDK from Apple and compile it for Linux and Mac. I did this with X-Plane 26 years ago.
@@anthonyb5279 MS didn't really do much of the work. AMD supplied them with most of the code. It just took a while for MS to get around to putting it in a patch. The performance boost in games was verified independently by multiple testers, some recent videos are available on a few channels with the test results.
Intel has some good chips, I use some myself. They also have some bad chips. Major customers have been complaining about the performance and longevity of the last couple of generations. This is now known to partly be due to errors at the fab that cannot be completely fixed with software, thus there are going to be some costly recalls. Recent updates have reduced performance to attempt to mitigate the issues to some degree. There appear to be multiple issues going on.
AMD has their own issues, mostly with marketing setting up unreasonable expectations for gaming performance. in the latest generation. But the recent Windows patch more than made up for that even in last generation CPUs. The patch by the way only helped under Windows because they were already achieving full performance in Linux.
Love these videos. Just a thought - if an attack were deemed imminent, intel would certainly give them at least a few hours’ warning of a large-scale Chinese mobilization for invasion. Could you redo this but with the US and Japan maintaining a CAP of say, 4 F-22’s and 4 F-15J’s (with tanker support) around 300 miles west of Okinawa?
Cap great video. I was wondering if you can use Italian or French naval assets like IT Cavour or Charles de Gaulle?
About time to update the F-35 model without pylons.
It should be noted that short range HE frag type SAMs like the ESSM isn't going to completely destroy a 1ton+ ballistic missile. In CMANO thats modelled where smaller, non hit-to-kill missiles has a chance to simply fail to destroy a warhead or merely deflect a warhead slightly off course.
When defending a large land based target, deflecting a warhead might not make much of a difference.
USAF is a year into renovating Tinian; so soon help won’t have to come all the way from Misawa or Anderson.
Tinian is near Guam but this scenario was using Guam only as a stand in for Okinawa. Misawa and other bases in Japan are closer.
Cool battle regardless of the outcome,
Cap, I like your approach to fuel. However, would both sides not put up tankers to refuel on their way back home?
Ik the server prob couldn't handle it but there are like 40+ Japanese aircraft as well
Perhaps China may rely more on their land based ballistic missiles because H-6s are too old-fashioned and risky to perform such mission.
They have been leaning into upgrading their H-6 and have a lot of them, including some models specifically for this purpose.
Great vid Cap, thank you!
Imagine if the US could develope a SAM similar to the s400 and incorporate it into its navy ships. I would imagine it would be an absolute game changer.
Oh, and does DCS utilize submarines? And if so, wouldn't the US fleet here have a couple with it? And don't the submarines carry Minuiteman missiles???
The SPY-1 has a longer range than the S-400 radar and the SM-2 s, SM-3s, and SM-6s are more capable than the S-400s missiles.
You missed th F15Js again. Unless I missed something...
Have you ever thought about streaming these operations as you do them? (Or would that stress your pc too much?)
They are already at the hardware limits
Just curious, what CPU do you have for your server?
I am suprised you didn't include any of Japans air defense forces. which includes more F-15's, F-35's, and a f-2 which the F-16 would make a good analog. you know they would launch also along with japanese naval assets to assist with US naval forces.
Cap have you seen the CL-1201 that Lockheed designed in the 60s,
It was a 6000 ton flying aircraft carrier that could carry 22 fighters and tow a transport plane called LSA . The LSA could carry 9 times the weight of a C5 galaxy so maybe 40 to 45 pallets of LRASMs .
Neither plane was ever built for obvious reasons but I'm wondering if you could model them along with some F35s for it.
The fighters just get fastened to the wing pylons just like a missile
I have been seeing your vids and wondering why there are no IR or Lock on after launch capabilities in any fighters? Is it not possible in the sim?
Last time he added 44 Japanese aircraft, are those no longer stationed on Okinawa?
Japan has no less than 3 squadrons of F-15J's in Okinawa currently.
Cap, Japan has no less than 3 squadrons of F-15J's in Okinawa
@@mpeugeot Thanks!
Ah, dang I forgot about the Jpn aircraft, sorry.
@@grimreapers you didn't have the server to run an additional 30 F-15J's, but certainly they would have made a dent into the fighter outcomes. Great job nonetheless! I enjoyed watching it.
The F22 keeps its Sidewinders inside internal bays right? So how does the seeker head track its heat signature given off by the target? The plane itself would have to somehow track the heat source, send it to the missile, maybe? Or does it just drop out of the bay and starts trying to find a heat source? In an F16 for example the missile gives you a tone that indicates it’s onto something, let me off the rail. Sorry, these are the questions that I wrestle with when high.
The aircraft gives target data to the missile while it is on the rail. That gives the missile a general idea of where to go before it picks up the target with its own sensors.
Cap, you forgot the Japanese aircraft that would have been at Okinawa. They also are going to take up to another year to fully replace the F-15C/Ds there. More than likely they will be F-35As and F-15Es when finally rotated. The rotation for this should have been 12 F-22s, 12 F-16s, 12 F-35s and 12 F-15Es for the Americans, with another 12 F-15s from the Japanese for the blue side air power.
These are fun!
Bruh, that’s the most realistic video of yours, despite having many flaws like usual.
I dislike overrating western capabilities while downgrading the eastern ones.
The J-10c for example can carry the PL-15, while the F-16 block 70 can’t carry the AIM 120D4 because it doesn’t exist in the first place, the AIM 120D3 and the AIM 120c8 are still in development, even if it’s done, it won’t reach other countries before the US, so the least to expect them to reach other countries would be in 2027-2028.
And there is no evidence that the F-16s could carry such missiles.
While the Chinese already have their PL-15s carried by their medium single engine cheap fighter jets, and stealthy ones, keep in mind that their bigger unstealthy jets, like the J-15 and the J-11 could carry the huge PL-17 with extraordinary range up to 400 km.
So in reality I guess China would have made a greater mess than what was shown in the video, not the other way around.
AMRAAMs and pac3 are simply modeled poorly and you guys never fixed them.
Yeah the Patriot batteries seemed to be massively underperforming.
The reason why the F-22’s are better than the F-35s is because they are superior in stealth and also superior kinematically. Moreover, they also carry two more missiles.
Roger
yeah man, the F35 is an F16 replacement so it's not a missile truck.
@Dimitris_Datseris isn't the f22 considered air superiority, while the f35 is considered multi role?
@@Velanestar the F-22 is also multirole is optimised for air superiority
@@Dimitris_Datseris copy that
Somewhere in another universe Cap modeled two c-17 rapid dragons carrying 90 aim260s data linked to awacs. Buh bye J-whatevers and especially the bombers.
“Can change on a Dime.”
First, funny a Brit should use an American idiom.
Second, it’s Stop on a dime. 😆👍🏻
One of my Russian programmers always mixes his idioms like "it is slice of cake" and "piece of pie". And btw, he's a good Russian, one of what, 13 in existence?
At 20:48? Caps idiom usage is valid. Having spoken and listened to American English for a bit more than 32 years, I've heard and used "Turns on a dime." and "Stops on a dime." more than I would bother to count.
You should have ch get with Habitual Linecrosser and get accurate patriot systems lol
IRL, that bomber flight would be known about the minute it took off.
The F22's would be flown a LOT better.
I dunno.... I just don't see it going like that.... But, I'm biased....
Based on what?
There are Japanese F-16 and F-15 squadrons at the other airfield on Okinawa Also adjacent islands. I don't think that maters much unless they are on patrol. Scrambling that many planes is not realistic they would not have that many fueled and armed ready to go. Unless they had advanced intel like with the attack on Israel. BUT if the had intel the planes would be on patrol and more able to intercept at a long distance. If they got the element of surprise it would go mostly like this save the difference electronic warfare would make that DCS does not support. EW would probably stop all the PL-15 helping the fighters survive. Again that does not mater much the mission is to intercept the bombers. In reality I don't see how they could get the jump on Okinawa so this would never happen this way.
this is more of a what if scenario rather than full realism, like the simulation he did on the Chinese sending their navy and Airforce to attack California
@@moonlitfoxling8448 My statement was an answer to his question if the Japanese had assets there too. As far as what if, it would be hard to get element of surprise. IF they did the fighters are not much of a factor, it would come down to the SM3s and Patriots. This shows how important intel is. If they don't know its coming a swarm of missiles could overwhelm the air defense. If they know its coming the bombers wont even get off the runway. However DCS is missing all the EW stuff. The Harris toys are beyond SicFi. The PL15s would be completely negated along with any plane caring them its really not a fair playing field in reality. The ballistic missiles are more difficult we actually have to shot them down. By nature of having heat shielding for reentry they are also EM shielded. Thats why the scenario is interesting, it really validates the swarm attack.
@@anthonyb5279 what are the Harris toys 👀
@@lsuperior Umm.... its classified thats why its not in DCS. But they are known rather ambiguously as "Joint Electronics Type Designation System." Google that but you wont find much but more ambiguous words and more words that say just about nothing useful to understand what they do. These go on Destroyers and Carriers, also the F-35 drags 2 of them on a retractable cable. One of the capabilities allow it to spoof the missile with a radar hologram rather than chaff. with some poorly designed missiles like the PL-15 it can fry the electronics or cause a detonation. Can also spoof the self destruct altho that goes agains treaties but it has the capability for when treaties don't apply like when China sells them to the drug cartels. Other capabilities are unjammable or detectable communication. Thats the real scifi stuff like particle entanglement but they are not going to tell you how they do it.
@@anthonyb5279 pssh dont let panzy schmanzy classifications get in the way of saying what you want to say on a youtube forum. What’s the worse that can happen? Besides, all the feds are on the war thunder forums, your secrets are safe here… anyways that helps explain what that drobe is for, didn’t know Harris toys was colloquial term for it.
For as much as a wonder kid the J20 is in game, real life news shows it is easily mediocre as far as being found and potentially killed.
Hi guys, Is it possible for you to do a tutorial on how you created the kill counter on your missions - thanks.
What if a squadron British f35b with meteor would have been on visit at kadena?
CAP HOPE YOUR FEELING BETER BUDDY I REALLY HOPE YOUR GOING TO BE OK WE LOVE YA BROTHER YOUR THE BEST AT DCS JUST AWESOME AND NOW SEA POWER AS WELL JUST AWESOME VIDEOZ GOD BLESS YA MAN 🙏 ❤❤❤❤❤
Could you imagine how bad Amazon and Walmart would tank in a scenario like this? Oof...
Huh? Amazon and Walmart?
They both have already begun diversifying their supply chains in expectation of further trade issues with China.
have u guys considered including the MCAS Iwakuni as well?
Need a proper Japan map
Cap, did you miscalculate the US fighters? During the briefing it says 50 US aircraft, but you only used 38. Should there be 12 more F16/22/35s? It also looked pretty skewed with 24 stealths and 24 4th gens vs 24 stealths and 12 4th gen.
What about the JASDF Squadrons at Naha?
Countries which have attacked Okinawa/Ryukyu: Japan = yes, USA = yes, China = no
What country has US not attacked or regime changed?
The raptors would devastate the chinese in real life scenario
Couldn’t Cap have used AIM-174B as they are actually in service currently? (I think?)
He does mention it in the battle - I think it's only currently confirmed to be carried by the Super Hornet, but I don't see why it couldn't be adapted for the F-16. It would definitely be interesting to see how it would change the outcome.
@@countbuggulaYeah, I thought it might have only been F-18.
I agree, an F-16 conversion would be interesting to see the effect of.
Even so, US has limited number of these missiles. So, wouldn’t have helped much
@@dexlab7539 Could make a huge difference if used to take out high priority targets like AWACS.
What about a scramble from Misawa?
most believable video in a while tbh. Nice!
Given the active Iran/Israel situation (Oct 1) and the US navy being turned loose to shoot anything headed towards Israel, I kinda got to wondering; how much difference does it make if targets being defended by modern guided missile ships are well away from the ships themselves? Say Okinawa being defended from half way to China (with the ballistic missiles going over the top) or Israel being defended from the Persian Gulf (with it being a bit of a side/tail chase)?
You might want to lower game volume, hard to hear you with all the engine noise
That Anderson AFB does not exist on Okinawa. lol.
Also, can DCS model a TBM strike on Okinawa with DH-10 and DF-21C in conjunction with an airstrike?
now could any country launch so many planes and not be noticed way way before the aircraft got any where near the target?
Cap, what are your system temps when this happens??
Any new Lazer weapon or defense technologies?
Laser*
Laser based air defense systems exist but are only effective at short range and are more effective against smaller and slower targets such as small drones than against larger and faster ballistic missiles. On the upside they are cheap to fire and never run out of ammo. They are a useful extra layer to add to air defense networks but wouldn’t help that much in this particular game scenario. In real life they would be busy doing work taking down drones all day.
Awesome sim! I think it’s totally a plausible outcome, I strongly prefer it if the US would get their “modernization” into high gear, as well as get back to hosting a strategic superiority in force… 10 years ago it would have been a laughable proposition… 20 years ago and I bet the us could have totally wiped the board…but over the last few decades the US has been growing soft while China has been putting in a legitimate effort to challenge the West.
The vast majority of the supposed Ukraine aid was actually spent on modernizing the US military. Ukraine got the old surplus that was replaced. If we did that on a larger scale we could modernize the entire US military while helping allies with our hand me down equipment.
Hey cap a random viewer all the way from south africa here, I am a big fan of your videos, I watch them all the time. Been watching for a while now already. Shame I see that your voice is giving you problems quite often. So I am a Christian, this is quite random lol but I just felt like I will pray for you that your voice will get better so that you can keep making awesome videos. I believe your voice will get better soon.
Are you using the J-20 with the new WS-15 engines so they have better fuel economy and can supercruise?
How do you try to get accurate data on Chinese airplanes? It’s not like you can trust their data
Just don't listen to the claims they put out, if it hasn't been tested and utilized in combat, then those claims are on paper only, they work as a scare tactic
Open source intelligence information can provide a pretty good educated guess about their capabilities.
Can trust any data from any country…F35 looks great on paper, but is down over 50% of the time
Fun sim… but most of us know the truth
China won this battle, doesn't mean they won the war.
Did they though? They emptied their ships missile cells. Lost 38 planes. And only managed to take out one hangar and one patriot battery.
The airfield is still very operational and U.S. reinforcements will be arriving soon. Id call this a very clear failure on China's part.
Actually, most war games performed by US DOD has China winning a long war in this region.
SM-3 had a 25% PK defending Israel in April. The US fired 8 missiles and intercepted 2 Iranian ones. SM-6 wasn't even used in that battle.
That is not the way to calculate PK. Some extra missiles are often fired to increase the PK for destroying a single target.
Fighter support from south korea would arrive before misawa.
Still problems to get a rendevouz with a Doc? Can't you get a foreign health certificate and come to continental Europe? Your german would be good enough and most german medics speak English anyways, friend. French medics are also great (if you prefer to knock yourself out in normandy with cider and calvados).
Have you thought about an AI version of your voice? Could save your voice.
Can I rent you my AMD Epyc server?? I love your content!!
my god how the USA wasted soo much money on fighters as always on your videos. curious.....
Hey cap. Can you please do battle of midway. From either side.
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Battle inaccurate, no MQ9 in battle!
This is obviously sarcasm in case someone manages to miss its obviousness.
Actually I suspect that China may release a large number of balloon drones in prelude to an attack. This would fill up air defenses with targets that could potentially be carrying EW payloads to disrupt communications, GPS, and data links temporarily. They have a few thousand such devices ready for launch from Hainan. Surprise would be extremely difficult to achieve anyways because of the extremely capable US intelligence assets.
Disappointing result for America.
Could Taiwan also do the same?
Taiwan is closer to China and will be attacked by many land based missiles, drones, and helicopters in addition to all of the above in this scenario. Taiwan requires much thicker defenses. Fortunately for them they do have many hardened aircraft shelters at least but their aircraft available are less capable overall.
@@stupidburp I was making a joke because he almost got banned for bringing up Taiwan.
I'm honestly perplexed on how the SM-3 going mach 10+ can maneuver well enough to hit the YJ-21's but when it comes to the YJ-21's, they have to slow down to hit their target? Let me guess though, America has somehow managed to make mach 10 missiles maneuver 50-60 g's to hit a target it should otherwise not hit
YJ21s when used against ground targets shouldn't even need to worry about plasma sheaths blocking their radars. They can rely purely on inertial navigation while travelling mach whatever.
@@hughmungus2760 That’s my point, they shouldn’t be that easy to just eliminate 80% of the YJ while again the SM-3 is traveling way faster than but yet that’s totally fine?
Thick air forces many ballistic missiles to slow down near the end of their arcs unless they are ICBMs coming in at orbital velocities.
The SM-3 is specifically designed to intercept things outside the atmosphere and are under active propulsive thrust until time of intercept. Literally just look it up instead of moaning:
The ATK MK 136 solid-fueled third-stage rocket motor (TSRM) fires after the second stage burns out, and it takes the missile above the atmosphere (if needed). The TSRM is pulse fired and provides propulsion for the SM-3 until 30 seconds to intercept.
At that point the third stage separates, and the Lightweight Exo-Atmospheric Projectile (LEAP) kinetic warhead (KW) begins to search for the target using pointing data from the launching ship. The Aerojet throttleable divert and attitude control system (TDACS) allows the warhead to maneuver in the final phase of the engagement. The KW's sensors identify the target, attempt to identify the most lethal part of the target and steer to that point.
@@msytdc1577 I’m well aware of its purpose and whether it can do that still remains to be seen. My point again is it’s flying Mach 10+ and still manages to hit at that close of a distance and all that TDACS shit doesn’t affect it so well that it can pull that hard to intercept the missile. That’s my point so you can tell me what I already know but what I saw in game makes zero sense but it is of course a game.