Montana 2C Climate Outlook: NCA5 Update
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 มิ.ย. 2024
- Montana, you are not looking too bad here. There are some challenges ahead, but there's also a good edge to hold on the ag side, and your major population centers are looking quite stable. We identify your areas where the fire danger is increasing the most, and give you some key resilience action areas for different parts of the state.
Here's a link to the NCA5: nca2023.globalchange.gov/
Find Dustin's Toolset right here:
public.tableau.com/app/profil...
Be sure to explore in those tabs! And here's the video that'll teach you how to understand our Wet Bulb Risk visualization:
• What's Your Wet Bulb R...
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Interesting! I didn't know about that area up by Idaho that's forecasted to dry out. Very sad to think that beautiful area will be lost. My first comments that come to mind are about the prospects for agriculture in Eastern Montana. I'm thinking this would be a great place for a solar panel/ ag combination strategy. The skies are very clean and clear and with the high elevation it feels like there is nothing between the land and the sun. Makes solar energy really work well in my experience. Also makes the feels like temp out in the sun, way higher than reported, at least for me. Many grasses can cope with that as long as they are not over grazed. So maybe a solar / cattle operation could be developed. Would give the cattle some shade. I know of a perfect spot where I think that would work. A south facing slope that could be made into swales on contour in the permaculture style. A tiny bit of the solar energy could be used to pump water from the creek up to the top of the slope to trickle down through the swales. Interesting to imagine how that might work. One of the things I don't hear talked about much is the wild swings in temp and how that affects ag. It's very hard on deciduous trees in general and especially fruit trees. We will have very warm spells and then flip to bitter cold. It causes the trees to think it's time to come out of dormancy and they start sending up sap from the roots. When it gets cold again the sap freezes. This can cause severe enough damage to actually kill the tree or in the spring it may just damage the blossom so there's no fruit that year. There are things that can be done to try and deal with this problem and plants that aren't bothered by it, but it's a steep learning curve to figure it all out. Also there's the wind. It's definitely a land of extremes.
@fadedrose100 this is a great comment. There's a lot of cool contemporary work exploring rangeland agrovoltaics- where you have solar and grazing on the same land. Huge potential for your area. And I appreciate you bringing up the reality of the big temperature swings and the wind. I tend not to emphasize these factors enough because they're also local to my area so I forget they're a big deal, but for people outside of the region they can be a real shocker.
And definitely, not all plants can handle all the extremes Montana will throw at them! I'm gonna drop a link for the Montana Association of Conservation Districts here, because they are always a great resource for very local plant recommendations:
macdnet.org/
@@AmericanResiliency thanks!
Montana could use a few more days above 32 degrees, more rain, and less snow. The best state in the country looks to get even better ❤
@mf-db6nm it made me really happy to see how nice things could come together for you all in Montana!
Lol this is such an absurd take. It's not going to be awesome. It's going to be brutal.
When scientists say "AMOC is at risk of collapse", I think it's at best a half-truth that omits critical context.
I was listening to a lecture by Prof. Rahmstorf. It's entirely possible that the AMOC may have ALREADY collapsed a while ago because nothing drastic happens at that point except from then on, there'll be an unstoppable decline.
There's a delay between the tipping point being breached & noticing that the tipping point is behaving differently. If we're measuring any sort of significant deviation, then it might have already tipped a while ago. But I've only seen a handful of people ever say "AMOC may have already tipped". It seems scientists don't want to acknowledge this likelihood because . . .
1) they have their own existential issues at play
2) they think giving an honest portrayal will demotivate society despite society never having been motivated enough for the last 40+ years
I find this near universal cognitive dissonance to be even more perplexing than the climate issue. It directly affects how we (as a species) will react to these types of things. I think we may have been studying the wrong thing for the last 40+ years.
Although I do feel fear, if you gave me undeniable evidence that it's over, I would believe it regardless of how bad that news is. I'm starting to realize that this is an incredibly uncommon way to think.
I would also rather have the evidence. I see it as a matter of dignity, that we should have real access to information. And I feel like there are enough cards on the table pointing to the probability AMOC has tipped, it seems crazy not to consider that in decade-level planning.
On scientists not acknowledging this likelihood- I think we need to also consider 3) funding. There is enormous in-system pressure to stay in lane. Most scientists live in high cost of living areas, and most senior scientists are responsible for funding their whole lab. So if they get out of line, it's not like it just hurts them, it could hurt a dozen other people they care about & feel responsibility for.
The work climate scientists have been doing on greenhouse gases and warming trends is important. It's not like that stuff is going away if AMOC has collapsed and we also get those climate system impacts. I hope we get some models integrating these probable futures to help us understand what is coming. But we might not get them. Right now, all we know is that modeling for both scenarios separately suggest that inland North America is relatively stable. Though "relatively" is doing a heavy lift in that sentence.
Can you do an update on California?
@fakrbob4099 I'm working my way up to it. The California update is going to be difficult and complex. I want it to be as clear as I can make it. I feel like I need to block the edges & identify destinations before I can give the people of California the message they need.
I'll probably start the work in July in two parts, north & south.
Probably have it out before the end of August.
Next on the schedule are Pennsylvania- June 13, Texas- June 20, Wyoming- June 27, Utah- July 4.