It’s Over: The End of The Porsche 911 Carrera Market As We Know It
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ก.ค. 2024
- The end of the Porsche 911 Carrera market as we know it; Prices have been increasing by double digit rates for the last two years. But this trend is now ending. Most of the market segments saw a stable price development during the last months. Yet, a few segments, like the 992, 991.2 gts, and manual 996 4s, saw their prices increase even further.
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Porsche 911 Carrera prices increased a lot during the last years. Many cars increased so much in value that depreciation seems to be history. However, we can see now that most price trends are flattening. Most market segments like the 996, 997, and 991 saw flat price developments. Hence, it’s not self-evident anymore that you can sell your 911 with a profit. Yet, there are a few exceptions. The following segments saw price increases; Manual Porsche 996 4s, 991.2 GTS, and the 992. Naturally, prices in the last segment are heavenly influenced by the limited supply and high demand. It’s difficult to get an allocation and prices are above MSRP. Regarding the first segment, we can see that it starts to look like a collectable car market. The average quality in the market increased and prices increased especially for the low mileage cars.
00:00 The end of soaring prices
00:35 Market overview
02:11 High level price trends
06:16 Segments with price increases
09:54 Your questions answered
12:42 Conclusions
Hagerty article: insider.hagerty.com/trends/do...
Disclaimer: The Content is for educational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this video constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy or sell any cars. The information published has been obtained from or is based on sources which are believed to be accurate and complete. Although reasonable care has been taken, the completeness and the accuracy of any information published cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions may be wrong and may change at any time. You should always carry out your own independent verification of facts and data before making any purchase decision. - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
A Porsche is not a completely rational purchase. You can obsess over pricing forever. At some point you jump in. For me I prob overpaid for a 2017 911. But I got it and am enjoying it. People go on cruises, spend the money and it’s gone. They don’t obsess over the value of the cruise. If you want a car now buy it now before life passes by.
* if you have means, that is.
Totally agree.
Picking up my Boxster GTS from the Porsche HQ this week.
Agreed.
I hear and understand. I have never been able to buy a new one. But my dad told me at 16 yrs old, write down the car, Color, and take each paycheck, or money earned and put it in a box. Read the goal each time you put $ into it. Well 28 years later, without ever robbing my dream, for unexpected $ needs, I bought my first used 996. Discipline and never loosing the passion is what it took me. A regular guy. I improved each one (3) and now I have a 997 S. That’s my story. Lesson I was taught. It’s not what you make, it’s what you spend. Hard earned $ spend wisely, and never give up on your goal, or your passion. Sacrifices were many but in the end worth it for me.
@@Dave-yy9br it was great reading your story. Many people don’t realise it’s not what your earn. It’s how much you keep.
I bought a clean, no bore score 997.1 C2S back in February with about 57k on the odo. When the seller brought it in for a PPI, the shop owner came out and tried to talk him out of selling it much to my chagrin. Lucky for me he already had his GT4 being delivered and went though with the sale and I couldn’t be happier. The car has appreciate already which is crazy, it’s only been 3 months since I bought it at the time of posting this comment and every time I take it to a meet I get asked if I want to sell.
I too bought a clean 56K mile 2007 997.1 Carrera cabriolet about a year ago for $36K. I have wanted a Porsche since I was 15 years old and finally purchased one, 40 years later. It was worth the wait!! It is a joy to drive.
This info is priceless! Helpful to everyone who is a Porsche 911 owner. Info helps determine to sell and upgrade or hold for continued enjoyment. My 911 story was 28 years of secretly saving until I could buy my first 996 base, and have since worked my way up to 997.1 S. It’s a journey of passion, but this type of guidance is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
love this!
As always great insight!. Thank your for talking about 991.2 in such detail. When you talk about statistically confirmed, what type of statistical tests are you using?
Just got this video recommended to me. Awesome analysis! We knew the manual 996 S models would go up but the 991 GTS was a shocker. I’m subscribed for more!
When I grow up I want to be like you! That market analysis was fantastic and the infographics perfect. (It helps that it about 911s too. )
Thanks for this!!!
Thank you. Being a former product planner and competitor of Porsche, I appreciate your quantitative analysis.
Thanks! Just found your channel. This is the hands down some of the most helpful content I’ve found to date as I start my journey toward purchasing a 997.1/997.2 .
Great to hear that the videos are helpful. Thanks a lot for your contribution, it's highly appreciated.
Great info. packed into a short video. Well done and thank you. I’ve followed you for a while now. Happy to say I finally bought my 1st 911. A 2008 Cobalt Blue C4S manual.
Congrats on the new car. Cobalt blue is an amazing color.
Congrats on the purchase, Ron. I'm truly happy for you. Dude, you actually own a 911. How does that feel, man? Cheers, 911 owner.
Me too on the Cobalt Blue, I've noticed seems quite rare compared to other colours, my 997.1 C2S came with dark blue interior and Black factory rims,, looks n sounds great - I love it.
Two things which I think will reverse:
996.1 will be more valuable and collectible than 996.2
991.1 will follow the same due to the NA engine vs the turbo in 991.2
I hope so and i have always believed that. The naturally aspirated engine is glorious! I have a 2014 4s Carrera cabriolet and happy it's not a turbo!
996.1 over 996.2 true but 991.2 having a turbo is not changing a thing. It’s a better performing car and is and will be worth more
@@blkmagnum3370time will tell.
Thanks for posting awesome videos time in and time out 💯 keep them coming
Love your content. Videos are so well made! Thank you!!!
Prices have plateaued or even slightly droped now in Australia too (across all models and series). Spoke to Porsche new car and after salesman, they too have just started to see a small slow down. So the bubble maybe be just starting to deflate, but I don't think it wil pop as there will always be the desire to own a 911 (nearly all are collectable).
Great stats and video. I would say the trends in the 996 & 997 are because they are more affordable for most people trying to get into a 911. Like myself I was going to buy a 996 from out of state but it didn't work out so I went for a Boxster first. I will eventually get a 911 but for most people they are too expensive as well as maintaining for a 3rd car. Even if it's a daily driver(2nd car, wife has the 1st) you would have the maintainance which leads to the trend in the 996 4S trend. I live where we have a snowy winter so I would rather buy a 4S if I could. Just my 2 cents.
Excellent as always. Detailed. Factual. Relevant to current market conditions. Your added personal point of views after presenting the data is an added bonus. Absolutely appreciate your videos.
Thanks!
Great article !! Posted in the Porsche FB group. Hey post stuff on the Turbo and Turbo S analysis you forgot to mention those babies!!
Thanks for sharing! The turbos will feature in a separate video.
Very nice video👏🏼. In the end you should buy it and enjoy the car. Don’t buy it as an investment, buy it because you like the car. My 992 increased in value but I really couldn’t care less to be honest.
I bought and I enjoy!! Though maintenance is overpriced!!
Very True . Car is a very emotional buy . For me , it should just look good instantly, the lines , the curves , the headlights , the tail lights. Etc … It’s a work of Art . Next , the handling , the seating position , the engineering and the driving experience… These are the virtues that really matter to me . I have never considered absolutely any “thing” that I have ever owned as a financial investment. I like to experience and enjoy it . Not going to take anything with me anyways ….
Exactly the video I was waiting for.
Just about to decide on what model I’m pursuing (the 991.2 Carrera T is my main focus).
Let’s see what the trends state
Cheers brother
Thank you for your analysys and commentary. This is very interesting.
I admire how you fit so much good info into such a short presentation. Excellent! Any general views on the 991.1, 991.2 and 992 Targa 4S market?
Thanks! I will make a separate video about the Targa models.
@@fourwheeltrader 991.2 Targa 4S here. Thanks in advance for that one, and thanks for your efforts with this information over the past two years that I've owned it. Only good news from you!
Awesome analysis as always! I was hoping you can do analysis on 2004 996 40 Jahre!!
Brilliant video 👍 looking forward to the turbo and turbo s vid
Thanks so much for your analysis, super helpful.
Can you answer the basic question, is it a good time to buy a base model if I plan to put miles on it? You advised an "enthusiast" to buy a high mileage car with a clean history...does that apply to say a base 997.2 Carrera with 35k miles? Is that what you mean by high miles or are you talking about cars with 100k miles?
No alternate truths here. Good to see some solid evidence. Thank you.
I am driving 2008 997.1 Targa 4S, and I love it every time behind the wheel
Great video analysis. I’m in the market for the upcoming 60th Anniversary 911. What are your thoughts comparing it to the 50th without knowing the specs of the 60th? Knowing Porsche they will definitely introduce another winner. Cheers
Very interesting. I would be curious to see the data on the Turbo / S. 👍🏻
I looked at a few 997.1s which seemed good buys at about 28k-32k for a 911. But then you get into the bore score issues and ims stuff. Although shouldn’t really scare people off, there is a surprising amount of cars with bore scores or engines that have been “rebuilt”.. warranty’s don’t cover bore score so they are a mindfield when looking to Purchase, a lot of independent dealers will not sell 996s and 997.1… so I find it very interesting why they are increasing in value especially when you can get a newer cayman 981s/boxster without any of the engine issues! Seems a no brainer to me
Loved this analysis. Thank you for confirming my observations of the 991 T and GTS with data 😁
Great video with usable content! Thank you.
damn it... sold my 997.1 C2S manual.... bought a 991.1 C2S PDK... hoping these hold and go up slowly as they are the last N/A
I’d love to see color demands too. We have a 992 4s Cab in Miami blue and it’s just soooo stunning and not that common. We paid whatever to have it just because, well you don’t see them everywhere. Just a joy regardless and I’m so happy we don’t have black white or silver.
I’m an older 911 guy. I’ve had 993 TT 996 GT3 997.1 GT3, 997.2 C2S, 50th anniversary, and now 991.2 GT3. Your Miami blue will command a certain premium for that color. It’s a great color and not easy to get. I’d hold on to that one
Impressive analysis, interesting data, and presented in a intelligible format. Great job!
Would be great to see a macan analysis.. which versions retain their value best?
I like your videos. Moreover, they are informative.
You should extend the graph to include the 993 and 964.
Very comprehensive assessment, well done.
Thank you!
Would it be possible to do an analysis on the AMG GT variants?
Casual observations of auction and classified sites suggest that PTS and more unique factory colors are bringing more money. Especially for low mileage collectible examples. I guess it boils down to rarity.
If you’re considering ordering a Porsche, rethink your expectations. I had my new turbo GT delivered early November. Ready to go except the Burmeister amp. I have been told it may sit on the lot for more than 2 months awaiting an amp, and can’t release without it. So, it sits on the dealer lot till at least mid Jan.
I am surprised you didn’t include any turbos in this break down. Also the split between 997.1/.2 turbo for coupe or cab is HUGE.
The turbos get a separate video :)
991.1 GTS with low mileage is trending up. Especially the 2016 year GTS since its the last of the N/A cars. Could this one be a collector car long term?? Very possible
With PDK or manual? I think manual maybe.
RE GTS pricing, I just bought a used 2019 with low mileage. My rationale for this choice vs an S or 4S was as follows. I was already settled on the 911 as my next car. As I looked at the performance comparison of the different models, it just seemed to make sense to me to spend the extra money on the car what would be the most fun on the road. The marginal price increase going up to the GTS seemed entirely justified whereas going from the GTS to the Turbo didn't (for me). Loving the car.
Congrats on your new car!
Your last sentence is the most important one about buying a special car. Not what the market is going to do. Enjoy!
of course, you buy what you can afford, makes total sense with any purchase ;-P
Is it PDK or Manual?
It’s PDK, ceramic brakes and the all wheel steering in white. I will be enjoying it for years…unless the itch to buy the targa gets too strong. I live where it never rains so that would be the ultimate for me.
Every once in a while I start feeling like I might finally after a lifetime of hard work be able to get into a P car...then I come here and those feelings are crushed hard. I can only hope this impending recession will help temper prices somewhat. Of course, I am completely re-building a house so the money is going to good, if not as fun use. lol
Are you me? Every time I get close to the P car, life happens or pricing moves beyond my means lol.
@@BM-tx4grlol. I’m sure there is an army of “Me’s” out there. Haha. It’ll happen. I just didn’t want to be “that” 70 year old in a 911 😜. Mid 50’s now. All about life choices I guess marriage/kids/house/car accident and paralysis…you know, life 😬. You listening youngsters?
Good luck to us all👍
I felt the same and kept at it. Also I was happy to get "less than" a 911 and S. So a base model cayman for me. Happy as a pig in 💩. Everything I ever wanted and I rip her up and down the roads near me
I hear you! Lots of us living parallel lives, and trying to make a responsible purchase. Problem I have is almost all cars are at dealers and not private party.
Love your vids brother!! However we just did 560 miles in a two day trip to the Tail of the Dragon, so the "Market" isn't getting my 991.2TTS any time soon :)
Sounds like a great trip.
Excellent data-driven approach!
Thank you for the answer!
I started early in the GT3 so now I have a 991.2 GT3. I’m pretty happy and I’ll stand pat
How are values for manual transmissions in comparison to PDKs?
Patiently waiting for a high mileage 996.
Probably just gonna go for a high mileage cayenne turbo/s though.
Can you comment on the future values of the 2022 992 GT3 Touring?
a decent 997 carrera s manual was the car to have at £30k a few years ago, now they're 50k.
So. It seems like the general market of 911’s is still just going up no matter which model. The only difference is by how much?
What is to be expected of my low mileage 2016 Targa 4 GTS (991.2)?
Amazing analysis thanks!
Just to be clear has the 997.2 gone down on price or has it plateau?
Do you believe the 991.1 all models will be collectors because they are the last of the NA? Also, since manuals are becoming rare how will that impact the 991.1 line as well? Thanks! Excellent info.
I do. I think when the 992 ages and that interior that we love so much feels antiquated, and everything new is electric or at least hybrid, The 991 will be the most popular other than the 992 GT3. It will be considered the last and greatest “classic Porsche”. The one NA that is somewhat affordable because GT3 prices will be absurd.
Hi,
I am wondering if this market analysis is across the board? for example similar trend goes for uk market??
Did you ever think about doing a data science course? I’m ready to buy and learn.
A price trend suggestion for you : the Ram TRX. I think the recent gas price will make these vehicules prices drop.
Good suggestion, thanks.
Where do you get your data from? Retail listings or wholesale transactions? I would assume you are using retail data points but could you confirm?
Great job as always!
Owned a ‘99 996 cab as my 1st Porsche. It would have really held its value had I not crashed it! got my 2nd this month - ‘12 997.2 Turbo S. OMG so fast….
I figure 3k mi/yr combined with general inflation, and cost to own is pretty cheap. (Vs the Maserati I drove until 2019).
What do you think the 992 Targa 4S Heritage edition will do?
The 1999 996 really should be counted as its own "thing," distinct from the 2000 and 2001 996.1s. It has the cable throttle, was handmade on the 993 assembly line, higher quality interior, manual latches, etc etc etc. They're also notable rarer. The prices seem to reflect this, as 99 cars are going for about as much as similar condition 996.2s.
GTS increase: the ego show off factor is higher with more letters behind 911 :-) - and of course it is a sweet ride.
What is your analysis for 991.1 carrera 4 GTS
Let's please have the GT3 market drop so I can sneak into a 991.2!
same! ive had to make do with a 991.2 gts but the gt3 991.2 is my dream
@@STRmw2 you're doing quite alright for yourself
@@romulus_ it is a stretch but I can manage it 😁
The best choice IMO. I have a ‘19. It’s my forever car.
Never a boring moment in the 911-which hasn’t changed its look since 1938.
Pretty Amazing...I bought my 1986 Carrera for $38K....Now Stupid Expensive
Seriously guys what better to go with the GTS 992 .PDK or Manual ?
for me the best investments now is a 991.2 turbo s with medium milleage
I am about to sell a 997.1 with 30000km on the spedo black metallic manual with some orginal options, in shape like new or even better,what would be a fair price ????
I love my 996 c2 I bought it with 19k miles in 08 now I’ve got 41k on original ims bearing I also own a 07 RS4 both are very different and I’d hate to let go of either. But with the way things are going who knows our money is becoming worthless paper here in the US .
Let’s go Brandon
Which Porsche model would you say is the best value for the price on new Porsches?
I have a GT4rs coming in December. I originally wanted a gt3 but they didn’t put out allocations yet. Do you think it’s a smart idea to take a gt4rs bc it’ll retain better value or should I wait for a gt3? I am 6’3 and will be more comfortable in a 911. Also, I could probably leverage a new GT3rs next year if I don’t take a gt4rs. I could also just take possession and trade it down the road for a 911. What would be your play on this one???
Hold them trade for gt3 or gt3 rs. GT4 rs currently has iconic status just for having the gt3 motor and I nduction sounds. Think you'll get all your money back and a lot to spare.
I've been looking for a 991.2 base Carrera for 3 months. The prices keep going up. I'm thinking I'd be better off ordering a new 992 base, that I spec out, would cost me about $15k more than a used 991.2. Does that make sense to anyone?
100 percent
for sure! Add on factory extended warranty and enjoy it.
Are able to find an allocation without crazy ADM? If so and you can wait over a year, not a bad idea
buying used probably doesn't make sense right now, since prices are still fairly high and they are likely to go down significantly over the next year. It is still a great time to sell! However, regarding the actual car, I think I would actually rather have the base 991.2 than the base 992
I can not find a dealer that would let me order a c2s or gts without a 15-20k adm
Just checked on bring a trailer (BAT).
Same car as mine: 2003 996 turbo x-50 similar miles regularly commands 80k-90k USD.
996 Turbo Mezger engines can be remapped comfortably to crazy power levels..
@@tserzz about 700hp-750hp with stock internals
imo, the 996 turbos were underpriced for a LONG time.i just got a really good paying job and finally am over the 6 figure mark but i think i missed the boat on these cars. the only way to get an affordable turbo is to get an automatic which can still be had for under 50k with lower miles.
@@scottchelmford7136 the head lights aren't even an issue in real life! I know I got a bargain.
Congrats on the job. Maybe hold out for an first gen GT4 in manual?
@@scottchelmford7136 the head lights aren't even an issue in real life! I know I got a bargain.
Congrats on the job. Maybe hold out for a first gen GT4 in manual?
Is buying a targa 4 vs a targa 4s make sense? There are just 20 targa 4’s built most years yet 500 plus targa 4s models but they cost $20,000 more with tax and license extra costs.
300K for the new GT3, it’s a great car I admit, but personally I don’t have that much money. So I have to spend that markup getting a C8, or Supra, or M4.
Looking forward to the bubble ending!
This is a great video. If only my college stats course explained stats this way! 😂🤣
Gen 1 r8 v10 market. Almost time for a market update video? 👀
I got a 997 2005 base Carrera in September 2020 for 34k.
Do you have a market review for sls amg
Interested in turbo s market analysis, specifically 991.1 991.2 and 992
The Turbo market update is coming in a few weeks.
991.2 Cabriolet with 30,000 miles. Would you trade it for a 992 cabriolet or keep it? My Porsche s a daily driver. I intend to drive a 911 for the foreseeable future.
Great stuff.
Does anyone know if a new 911 is going for over msrp?
Do you exclude GT3 pricing? With the 992 GT3 selling easily for 100K over MSRP this would seem to skew the numbers when using average values? No matter, until ADM charges go away, the market for used should remain strong… if your willing to sell.
Only Carreras are included. You can find the gt3 market update over here: th-cam.com/video/vHJlUDCAr0Y/w-d-xo.html
Great video and many thanks but Porsches are meant to be driven and serviced accordingly. To put them on ice for a return is a sin.
You should do a G wagon video, seems to be a very interesting trend with them
I heard the G wagon market has peaked and is going down. Gas prices being a big influence along with the high inflation rate
You can order new G63 AMG for MSRP. Why the hell would any joker pay over? Wait a bit jokers
Helder verhaal weer, dank!
will there be an electric 911 in the near future?
Thank you 👍
You called the top of the 996T market about 5 months ago... how is it looking now? :D
Anyway, I'm off to the shops in my... investment vehicle. (Enthusiast not investor!)
997.1 carrera 4 is just wow.
you're doing an amazing job dude, keep it up!
Hi in your knowledgeable opinion would it be a good/safe time to buy a 997.1 turbo with view to making money on it in the next 5 years and price guide for 2007 model as one has been offered to me
Typical Porsche buyer. Not interested in driving, only in making money.
You missed the boat. 2 yrs ago those were $50K, now $80. When the mkt crashes they'll prob drop to $60 but will take 5 yrs to get back to $80. So if you buy now at $80, in 5 yrs it will be worth... $80.
@@terrylessmann2274 thank u for this..problem is already one can’t fine at 60k
I play the drinking game when he says "moreover".