This Is WORSE Than the 1929 and 2008 Yield Curve Inversions
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I wonder if people that experienced the 2008 crash had it easier because this market conditions are driving me to insanity, my portfolio has lost over $27000 this month. alone my profits are tanking and I'm don't see my retirement turning out well when I can't even grow my stagnant reserve.
Even in this whirlwind, there are chances to be had, thus an increase in volatility is not always a bad thing. You have an opportunity to rebalance thanks to volatility. In order to help you diversify your portfolio, you must hire a professional
@LofgrenMark How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
@LofgrenMark Thank you
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The bigger your acc is the bigger your assets with plummet...also how old are you? Do you have time to sit in the market or are you going to retire in the next 5 years?
The current market/economy is unnecessarily tougher for boomers/senior citizens, I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.
Just buy Gold, the government has failed us or just try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your investment is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses.
Yes, gold is a great investment and a good bet against the devaluating dollar, been holding some for awhile now, I’m grateful my adviser’s moment by moment changes in the market are lightening quick, cos who know how much losses I would’ve had by now.
In fact, I'm not sure whether I'm permitted to say this, but I'd suggest searching for “Margaret Johnson Arndt” as she gained a lot of attention in 2017. She is both my coach and the manager of my portfolio.
I think the current market/economy, atleast in my country, is way tougher for young people since you can't really buy a house, you can't kids or your finances will be paycheck to paycheck, you can't move out of your parents homes because while some people have really low rents due to seniority on nthe house the young generation who wants to move out and get themselvees a place they can call home would simply make them bankrupt, even if you have a really high education. So, atleast in my country, which is Portugal, I think it's way worse for young adults and adults than it is to seinors.
Gold, S&P 500, Aristocats, Clean Energy!
The one thing I didn’t hear him say was that stocks tumbled AFTER the recovery of the inverted yield curve. We have not bottomed out yet with current yield curve. We shouldn’t expect stocks to tumble until the current inverted yield curve begins to recover.
Was thinking the same
This. It will happen once the FED pivots as money will flow out of stocks and into treasuries.
What's not factored in the historical data is the change in investing instruments and methods available in the stock market. The rise of passive, index and commission free investing have allowed for a constant supply of money (fuel) to feed the market, so to analyze market moves based on historical data when all these things didn't exist might be like comparing apples to oranges.
That's what I was thinking.
@markc5771 More like comparing oranges and grapefruits - both are citruses, but one is bigger.
Today's market is bigger, moves faster, and is more extreme - more dangerous!
More the problem is, If everybody can see it, then it isn't an edge anymore. The more worthless historical graphs a youtuber brings up the more desperate they are to be right instead of an investor/trader. People love fear, it sells like sex. Macro bears fueled this whole record rally. They all thought their obvious recession data was gonna be a score. Too obvious.
@@Yetified_Mayhem Bingo!!!
That is absolutely factored in... The investment instruments available in 2006 and 2000 were VASTLY different from those in the 1980s and 1920s. Yet, the inversion caused the same result. That's because we are in a never ending battle between learning from our past mistakes and getting excited about new "fool proof" ways of making money. It's not rocket science, it's psychology. And if there's one thing that's certain -- people/countries/economies will find a way to get greedy and overextend themselves with "new instruments". Thus, it does not matter what instruments are available -- bubbles will form, and bubbles will burst.
The bold curve overlining is a fantastic addition to your presentation. Now I can follow.
if unemployment even has a little tick up, we are going to see things crumble quickly. Americans just don't have the economic stability as they did through some of these earlier recessions. Credit card debt is at an all-time high with many people having very limited to no savings, especially the z and millennial generations.
The problem is timing. Direction maybe down eventually, but nobody knows when.
Maybe down or maybe up 😂 timing also a problem, sounds like you have it all figured out
Nobody know what is going on right now
@@Dougie1664definitely down to below 2020 baseline...when is anyone's guess.
Insightful video. I just want to know best how people split their pay, how much of it goes into savings, spendings or investments. I'm 27, and earn nothing less $150k per year, but nothing to show for it yet.
When people have money, they spend it. And some people spend more money when they have more of it. If you want to improve your financial management, you should consult with a financial advisor.
@@devereauxjnr That's right, you can avoid the traps of lifestyle inflation by consulting an expert advisor to help you plan for your short- and long-term goals; it all comes down to proper guidance. Over the past two years and six months, I have seen my income build wealth and now have a fully paid off house and at least $650,000 in stocks. All this is the result of subsequent investments with my savings and the application of expert advice.
@@user-3456rtu Nice, who is the Financial Advisor aiding you if this is not much i'm asking? my retirement plans are going down the drain with my 401k particularly losing everything it gained ever since 2021.
@@loud9090 credits to NICOLE DESIREE SIMON, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up
@@user-3456rtu Thanks for the info, i found her website and sent a message hopefully she replies soon.
I love comparrisons over the longest periods of time as possible. The further back we look into the past the more we can understand about our present.
Sometimes looking far into the past provides insight. Other times it gives a false impression as relevant, but unaccounted for conditions have materially changed.
Consider also that in te 80s the interest rate was Much higher than today so that inversion was proportionally less Deep than today inversion..🤕🤕
The further we look back into the past, the more the past resembles the viewer's biases reflected back upon the viewer.
Every phenomenon has a rhythm or cycle, much like the four seasons of the year. If you were to look back just two months in the middle of summer, you'd still be within the same season and have a limited perspective. But if you extended that to four months, you'd have experienced two seasons, witnessing the transition from the warmth of summer to the coolness of autumn. Going back eight years, you would have seen this cycle repeat eight times.
Just like the seasons, other truths have their own cycles which can only be fully understood by looking back through larger segments of time. By expanding our temporal view, we gain exposure to the longevity of these cycles, uncovering enduring patterns and deeper truths. Hence, the further back we journey, the richer our understanding of these fundamental truths becomes.@@HenriFaust
You will see huge correction in Q3 2023! Right now, the market is doing series wave 4sand 5s,US Indics shall have 2-3 new highs! Dollar will go to 91-92 range before setting up a huge wave 5 which will drag down worldwide markets. So your yield curve analysis is spot on ! A few more months, the truth will be revealed 😂😂😂😂
I wonder if individuals who went through the 2008 financial crisis had a relatively less challenging experience compared to what I am currently facing. The current market conditions are causing significant distress for me. Specifically, my portfolio has suffered a loss of over $27,000 in just this month, and my profits are diminishing. This situation is raising concerns about the potential impact on my retirement plans, as I am unable to increase my stagnant reserves.
In the midst of ever-changing market conditions, there are actually favorable opportunities to take advantage of, making heightened volatility not necessarily unfavorable. This period of volatility can be seen as an opportunity to adjust and optimize your investments. Seeking the guidance of a financial advisor or broker would be beneficial in pursuing your portfolio diversification goals.
Impressive can you share more info?
Thank you for providing this valuable pointer. It was straightforward to find the contact information for her. She appears to be highly skilled and adaptable. As a result, I have scheduled a call session with her to further discuss my financial needs.
Can I ask what your portfolio allocation looks like?
This entire thread is bots
Lmao this guys been calling for a doom recession the past 6 months and the markets have hone up significantly. This guys REKT.
You are right. Hard part is all about timing. Yield curve is still negative. History has been telling us it's when the curve hit from negative to 0 and then to positive, the real crash is coming. At least that's what I found the pattern was. Just patiently wait for the Fed pivot, and yield curve change from negative to positive numbers, which I think is still half year to more than year away. Before then, I think the rally is still gonna continue a bit longer. Plus the election is next year, do u think Biden would let the economy crash before that?
@@zhu777hao Biden doesn't have a say over whether it crashes, but his puppetmasters certainly won't let it crash. He's been doing wonders for them, a perfect figurehead that allows the war machine to go, the money printer to go, and for new legislation that encroaches on the civil liberties of the people living in this country.
They want four more years of this. They want economic destruction. They want mass surveillance. They want us to own nothing, and be "happy"
100 percent correct analysis
Love the analysis. 2 things that are very different from past inversions. First is population decline specifically 1m+ people are leaving the workforce every year now in comparison to those joining. 2nd is the supply side issues with the reshoring of manufacturing back to the USA or to other countries besides China. Other factors as well, but the variables in the current economic model have never been seen before, a wild ride it will be.
the stocks could drop that much because in 1929, people were on 10x margin to buy stocks to begin with, and then when the stocks dropped, they would flee by selling at whatever price they can get (margin call, I guess, so there also were forced selling).
And nowadays people go for 100x margin so.. :D
@@Zakumas it is 2x margin max. How do you do 100x
Hello, I'm not sure why you believe that 2x is the upper limit. Just to make sure, I've just checked that on several of my brokers, I can readily access leverage of up to 5x without needing to verify my status as an accredited investor. It's important to note that not all brokers provide the same level of leverage; however, it's quite feasible to locate those offering at least 5x leverage. Additionally, there are alternative approaches and tools that can indirectly amplify your leverage (though it's implicit that this heightens your risk). The big players have even more options to leverage. @@winterheat
@@winterheatjust in forex
@@case0h right, so we are talking about stocks here
The thing I've learnt as an investor so far is: Everybody has been talking extensively about the inverted yield curve and the upcoming recession. The markets have already braced themselves and the possibility of a recession has been priced in (S&P500 lost 1200 points between Dec 21 and Sep 22).
What everybody should be worried about instead is the stuff that nobody talks about. The next big crisis will come out of nowhere, just like the housing bubble, Covid or the banking crisis lately (from which we got away by a very narrow margin).
Yes real black swan events. Maybe a good topic for a new vid about that from GoT? What possible black swans are there, the repomarket, unregulated shadow banks, China internal markets or war Taiwan, BoJ sudden changing policy with high impact for EU/US/UK central banks? :)
@@eatcake3073 have another, more generic question: does it even make sense to try and foresee what the next “black swan” will be? I mean, in my humble opinion, you can attach whichever label you want to the next crisis, we can't predict when it will come, the only thing we know is that it WILL come, because it has to, a market without corrections is not profitable for the big players. Those who move the market need to buy low and sell high, and since they have the capacity to do so, they will decide when the next big correction will happen and it will happen when it will suit them best. We, the small fishes in the pond cannot hope to beat the market, because it is rigged, all we can do is to have a well balanced portfolio, more focuses in indexed ETFs or Funds, rather than single stocks, and ride wave resisting the urge to sell, it's the only way to protect ourselves and avoid getting eaten by the bigger fishes in the pond when the water is at the bottom mark.
How do you know the possibility of a recession has already been priced in? How does one determine this? Have all future possible recessions already been priced in, or just the next possible one?
Dont worry about the future that u can't predict. Just have a plan
It'll be interesting to see what man made disaster will happen next. Just need to realize that these depressions are human engineered. By humans for humans...
the market as of now is a risky greed trap looking to trap those who are thirsting for gains and lack patience in my opinion
It's been practiced years in advance and has dedicated workers entire lives devoted to it's legitimacy. Look at the recent supreme Court case where one man spent 20 years spring chemicals on a train that was later than derailed and set on fire and Ohio although he was able to sue for damages to his health for developing cancer. The Pennsylvania railway commission had to respond due to the law from 1917 enforcing them to respond to any accusations against them and won the ruling in the supreme Court case. The 3 free families on top have been doing this to countries since 1870 and crippling economics in the process. War is good for business. This is why Ford, Mercedes, etc are still alive and well, and if a monopoly owns each market, then there's no extortion because there's no alternative.
Please mind the typos as that was a lengthy explanation
Bravo, Peter. Beautiful, concise & accurate data points. Cheers man.
What i learnt from this videos is that this kind of analysis can break an account. You'll never know when to take a position.
Amen bro. Invested 100% alltime
time in the market beats timing the market. hold some capitol in reserve for when the market falls, deploy when its cheap. that's all you Gotta do.
Past one year he is saying same thing and it's going up only
Sit in something like TMF til shit hits the fan…
@@hiisatya I like his analysis but it´s wothless in the end. Price is everything.
The problem is this is an unprecedented environment. All previous inversions occurred in an environment with pyramidal demographics. That era is ending and so with it all existing economic models. Basically we have nothing in our current economic lexicon to describe how the amount of capital and advanced labor that has left and will leave economies over the next 3-5 years will impact capitalist markets. Does an inversion even still mean what it used to in that kind of environment? By traditional measures we could certainly see a full employment recession over the next 2 years, and that begs the question of what exactly is a full employment recession and what does it mean? We really don’t even know what that looks like or how it will work. My guess is existing measures of recession will fail to work and will need to be replaced by productivity per person metrics that measure the output and consumption in true per worker terms vs economies as a whole (and no gdp per capita is a horrible measure as it is overly bloated by free boomer capital and corporate debt). There really is no way to get around the shrinking pie issue so until we figure out the economics of this new model the true health of economies in the advanced world will be masked imo.
Debt to GDP ratio and derivatives are materially higher today than 1929.The epicentre of a stock market crash will be in the debt market.
Very few people or channels have been looking at the data so objectively as you have and I have been following your analyses since the pandemic. Back then it was a lot more rudimentary and mostly just technical analysis, however, now the macro level historical and data comparisons add so much more depth and it fills me with joy to see how you guys have evolved and how i have evolved with you. Keep up the amazing work, mostly pointless and hollow trading videos get recognition and views on youtube, you are a breath of fresh air. Please keep doing what you are doing
There reason we have not had a Recession - Bailouts
Every time there is a natural event in current times - they bail out. Stop the bailouts, and restore order.
that means you have been missing one of the greatest bull runs since 2023. this is a fear mongering channel since yesterday. he has always been like that since yesterday, fixated to the glooms and dooms, forgetting we are now in a new era.
Did you just get schooled? As to why the market works?
It's make friends.
"Not what you know so much as who you know...
The yield curve of yesterday is nothing like the yield curve of today. One major factor is the money supply, and the speed of money has completely changed. You add in employment and compare the productivity type and get a different picture. All I'm saying is that the yield curve is not a leading indicator anymore but a measurement of market imbalance. Plus, for the past 20 years, the FED has set the rate. The yield is not the canerry in coal mine anymore.
There is no limit on the debt ceiling until 2025. Should we be surprised if there is another "crisis" that occurs before then so they have an excuse to print more money?
in 2006 /07 you didn't have around 20 stocks moving the index alone....very similar to 73/74 nifty 50; the last time we had inflation worries, currencies problems OPEC.. Commodity /wage inflation, etc.
You guys are great because you include the 1929 period. Most analysts don't
Don't forget, Trillions of dollars worth of student loans go back into repayment status in October. A lot of people are struggling to pay their bills as-is, and suddenly they're going to have another $200-$1,000 payment due monthly. Many of whom will likely defer payment on for another six months until that second grace period is exhausted and payments are mandatory. That's about seven months and it could put a HUGE burden on an already lugging economy.
What's not taken into consideration it's that people much spend lesser during COVID-19
Unemployment is low, the consumer has no trouble accessing cash and credit. You may have several quarters of negative GDP growth indicating a recession, but with 1.6 jobs for every worker based on the JOLT report it looks like we can contract a bit without triggering significant loss in corporate earnings.
Your still at it, predicting a crash. How long now have you been at this for? I think if I remember right, about 8 months. I wonder how you feel about being out of this tremendous bull run?
Amidst all the clutter, this is one of the most important & relevant videos I've ever watched. Take heed. Subscribed. Upvoted. Thanks
I would think the current market would be more closely related to the 2006-2008 market due to being alot more recent. 1929 was nearly a century ago!
He left out the important 1980s inversion which was still much worse than the one today. It took almost 7 years when the inversion was at its lowest in 1980 to 1987 market crash. The inversion reversed direction and actually went into positive territory in the 1982 timeframe. The inversions and crashes in the 2001 and 2007 was a lot closer at around a year away from the bottom of the inversion. We still have a ways to go, but the train has already left the yard. Its only a matter of when the crash would happen and how deep it would be. Its hard to time the market, but I don't think we are there yet.
@@ahndeux I think you are right by saying "The train has already left the station". The Fed reserve raising rates has not had its full effect yet because of the AI tech boom but once that runs out of steam i think it will cause markets to correct significantly
Spx is 4% off 2022 all time high and this channel has been bearish since the bottom. When does a macro economist say look I was caught off side I'll reevaluate the bearish thesis when there's a real change in higher time frame structure
since 2008 the markets have the safety net of the Government bailing them out
For me personally - This has been an under graduate, graduate and PhD class in the yield curve in under 14 minutes.
I am so grateful that you have chose to create this content and share it with me (your TH-cam subscribers) 1
I've been an undergraduate in prophecy all my life. 🙄
A spike in unemployement would trigger more bank failures and a serious credit event. But FED still gonna raise rates tomorrow. Its like going 200 km h straight to a wall without brakes and wishing the wall to stop the car.
you can not compare 1929 with now. 1929 was a deflationary phase. Now we have a inflationary phase. So it is more like the 70s
Actually, post-WW2 is a better comparison. US had similar federal debt levels, an inflationary shock from depressed consumer goods production and excess savings unleashed postwar, etc. Difference is that they had a plan to get out of debt and it drove the US into a recession. Then it unleashed the prosperous 50s. We have no plan to get out of debt, so no prosperous 20s, unfortunately. Just stagflation and eventually Fed yield curve control.
Everyone keeps leaving out GDP. The biggest difference right now, is that the GDP is still above zero. All past recessions went into negative GDP combined with all these other factors.
Negative GDP is the definition of a recession. 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
Comparing today with something that happened almost 100 years ago is just stupid. You may assume we have learned some lessons since then...
I wonder, whether the susbpending of the U.S. debt ceiling won't influence the months after the yield curve inversion, and the depth of the recession. Basically it has been suspended until 1st of January 2025, which means during the president campaign they can print money. In Hungary the same happened, the goverment spent a ton of money to win the election, after 1 year of the elections they have the highest inflation in EU (30%, while other countries have about 10%), people are started to struggle. What do you think, should we worry about the unlimited debt ceiling? On the other hand the student loans payment monatory will be canceled from 1st of September, maybe that could be the trigger too.
Important to note, the reason there was a Great Depression was due to political errors committed by the federal government and the fed reserve. They made errors with policy and finances which made us have a double dip recession that turned into a depression.
A Bank crash/crash in the stock or real estate markets has less of an immediate impact on people's standard of living than inflation or currency devaluation. That the market is so negative at the moment shouldn't be shocking. If we are to survive in this economy, we need assistance right away. The ETF and stock markets are still quite volatile, just like the property market. Now all that's left of my $370K portfolio is ruins.
You're gonna have to call it quits for 5 years for the investments to turn green again. Focus on work and survival.
I would be astonished if the SPX made a new all-time-high while the money supply was being contracted. I predicted like a year ago or something that since stocks had already fallen a lot in response to bad news, and the money supply was not increasing, that stocks would be choppy until the money printer turned on again. I predicted back then too that stocks might rally, but would not make new all-time-highs. So far it looks like my prediction was correct. Since the initial downturn in stocks, we've neither had a big fall nor a new all-time-high.
But we're near new all-time-highs now, despite the money supply not being at an all-time-high, so my opinion is that stocks have mostly only downside potential at the moment. I don't know how far they will fall, but I don't own any, and I'm happy with that.
I think that personal and government debt levels are a lot higher than 1928/1929. Plus i wouldn't trust government issued employment numbers. In the USA you have people working 2 or 3 jobs and living in a car. It will all collapse very soon
sounds like wealth.
This time is very different than earlier data in a number of ways. First of all you didn't have central banks in the market holding things up and manipulating prices as they do now. Second, employment will stay low because of the glut in jobs left by the boomers. Flately the demographics stink for jobs versus say the 1980 inflaionary spike. Plus it is the type of jobs. Third you did not have enormous deflationary pressure (that is just beginning) as a result of democratization. AI will push the prices of everything down. This is deflationary, not inflationary.
Fantastic video, i like to use the {10y/3m} yield curve inversion which started in Oct 2022 eight months ago. Over the last 50 years the average months it took for the S&P 500 to breakdown into a bear market was about 12 months from initial inversion so the bulls are still good until late Oct 2023.
Consider also that in te 80s the interest rate was Much higher than today so that inversion was proportionally less Deep than today inversion..🤕🤕
it wasn't because with time lower interest rates weakens in effect and lower growth of interst rates give much stronger effect
fake money must be detoxed
if rates gonna still go up economy will do fine but inflation will be higher accompanying new growth
Just because they are great opportunities in the stock market doesn’t mean you should go in blindly. To understand the potential factors that contribute to your financial growth, I’ll advise you to seek the help of a professional.
You’re right! My portfolio is well diversified across multiple markets with the aid and guidance of an investment advisor "John Desmond Heppolette". I have been able to generate over $320k in net profit across high dividends yield stocks, ETF and bonds in more than eight months.
Your advisor really seem to know this stuff. I found his online-page when I google up his full names, read through his resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. I left him a note and booked a call session with him..
Learning is crucial for success in investing. Keeping up with current trends and strategies can help investors stay ahead of the curved and make informed decisions. I’m glad to hear that John Desmond Heppolette strategies and insights have been helpful to most of us. Remember success in investing takes time and effort, but with dedication, commitment and discipline is achievable..
It’s unfortunate most people don’t have such information, I don’t really blame people who panic cos lack of information can be a big hurdle. I’ve been making more than $25k passively investing with John Desmond Heppolette, and I don’t have to do much work. It doesn’t matter if the market is crashing, I will always make good profit returns.
Scam
Yield curve inversion and recessions are loosely correlated. There are several instances where the yield curve has inverted, and there is no recession. Tech is going to continue to push higher, and I am anticipating the NASDAQ hitting 5,500 by 2027.
Nasdaq 5.500????
Yield curve inversion always precedes a recession…
I bet the few times you mentioned occurred before 1980s or if was after 1980s, it would have been a brief dip for a few weeks or months at most. Every inversion since the 1970s has been correlated to a recession and even a market crash a few years down the line. It doesn't happen right away. There is zero doubt this inversion will cause a recession. The question is how deep and how long is the recession. China and other countries are on the front end of the recession since they are the producers of the products. They see low demand and a lot of workers are out of jobs recently due to the decline in sales and orders.
You can't compare pre-1971 data with nowadays. The gold standard is no more, the trust in the dollar is mostly gone. The next crash may be a crash that will never recover. I'm super bearish.
Yeah, never recover is pretty super bearish. Look, even if the us dollar is measured in wheelbarrows the economy will recover because Bitcoin exists. And even if, in such a scenario, the US has not backed itself with Bitcoin major companies will just be accepting it as currency by that point anyway.
Peter's analysis misses the "why" for all these inverted yield curve-instigated declines. Basically, all the ones he mentioned were caused because the Fed stepped and deliberately threw the economy into a tailspin. Inflation gets too high - the Fed raises rates - recession. Nine times since 1961, the central bank has embarked on a series of interest rate increases to rein in inflation. Eight times a recession followed. The only true “soft landing” - as significant rate hikes with no subsequent slumps are called - occurred in 1994, according to a March 25.
Great presentation but I wonder with the current electronic markets/efficiency, ODTE options, current Fed intervention techniques and many other changes to the current market versus ones in the past if there really can be protracted year over year severe declines that are minus 50%+ top to bottom like 2000-2003 2007-2009 or just shorter volatile declines that last 1 month to 6 months at most
Plastic or paper?
Recession was already factored in. The 1929 wasn't. 2020 economy was artificially propped up with the 'money supply,' thus when it was removed in 2022 we has a recession. Recession is already baked in the cake, The U.S treasuries are so unattractive these days, Guess we need another recession, and the cycle continues. 'We all know who rules the world.'
What your analysis is missing is that US debt saw a 100 year statistical sell off. So you need to put the yield curve situation in context of such 100 trends. Their only choice is to take this thing Weimar Republic, which means, print, print, print.
You're saying the yield curve inverts when the inversion hit its bottom.
But in the examples it inverts _before_ it hits its bottom. So you give times from inversion (actually inversion bottom) to recession that are too short.
Yes, very confusing examples and explanations. Those red circles don't correlate with what he's saying about the present data...
Cassandra...missed the ENTIRE Run up!!
I'm curious that in the 80's there was a bad inversion but I've never heard about the recession that followed :l
For the last 3 years you have been talking about inverted yield curve. At least you need to look into it correctly. In a place rate goes from 0 to 5.5 there will be an inversion but you need to look at it by removing the inflation impact as then it can only truly represent the reality. Then interest rate is actually still very low and yield curve has barely inverted for a very short term…
Your content is continuously consistent and so well outlaid for the channel. I love watching your channel and watch every video you put out. Keep up this incredible work. Many blessings to you brother. 👍😀
The two factors are debt and inflation. When 70 % of people can't afford a $400 emergency vehicle repair, and do not have at least $1000 in the bank, and maxing out credit cards with 22-23% interest rates. The Penthouse guys are ignoring flyover communities and a massive recession has begun. Selah
Keeps your chart colors the same. When the stock is orange one one graph and black in the other it makes it difficult to follow along and know what I’m looking at when you switch graphs every 30 seconds
Hi Peter, how about providing a more balanced view? Will recession not materialise following this yield curve inversion? We have a strong economy, the labour market remains tight and corporate earnings are relatively stable. Retail sales and service PMI still strong.
was it like that before other recessions?
it's all depends on government deciding to liquidate debt on heads of midlow income citizens or not
as always
Do the "market makers" (major banks, hedge funds & other investment firms) use AI programs that detect the number of PUTS vs. Calls on any stock in the stock market & then either "pump it" or "dump & short it" depending on which is more profitable? If they have this capability, then why would they not do so (you know just like the AI used in Las Vegas slot machines, they make sure the house mostly wins)?
You're asking if big money has access to information we don't? And if they use this to ensure profitability? Well they sure do... But price manipulation only requires large volumes really. They start the pump, sell at their targets to get price back down to their ideal buy-in price, and repeat. All day, every day. Doesn't even require AI really, but I'm sure they make use of technologies we don't even know about.
@@matt_nemmer I think the Biden administration is going to continue to keep the stock and housing markets pumped up through at least next year. No way they will allow an economic and stock market collapse until at least 2025. They will just keep putting more and more money into the banking system to keep it all propped up (despite inflation). This is a war effort now, since the US can't allow an economic collapse during their proxy war with Russia.
Now that everyone is so knowledgeable, how will the market ever crash if everyone keeps buying the dips and everyone continues to hold onto good companies? In the past, people panicked and sold good companies but now people will hold and buy dips.
The Fed really messed up by bailing out Wallstreet and giving investors a false sense of confidence that they don't need to pull out their investments are the backstop to this economy.
A recession implies mass unemployment so you need money, you can’t live from thin air and are forced to sell assets, especially if you have a family. People on the edge get nervous because they don’t know if they can hold but they want to, but if prices keep dropping, they are better off liquidating to survive and reinvest at the drop.
Good analysis. But you need to focus to the 70s too. This would give a better basis for comparison what might happen
We also saw a couple of banks go bankrupt at the start of 2023, nothing happened afterwards (yet). But the market seems out of touch with reality.
The animation highlighting the charts REALLY helps! The movinng text at the beginning of each chart… not so much. Keep up the videos!
My question is, how much was the Fed telegraphing their future plans in the 70s-80s compared to today? You could make an argument that the recession/stock market drop preceded the yield curve inversion because of how much more transparent, understood, and telegraphed things related to inflation/yield are these days.
is this account long any equity? cause yall missed some gains
Why are you marking random points as "yield curve inversion" when its clear that inversion is any time the blue line goes below zero on your left axis? For instance, in '66 the yield curve was inverted, and stayed that way largely for 4 YEARS before there is a recession ('70).
There's not always a recession after every yield curve inversion, but there's always inversion before every recession. IOW, look very carefully at all kinds of indicators.
elaborate
@@batboy., elaborate what?
Interesting historical overview, however I have a doubt about it's practicality as something relevant to the current world. Without taking into consideration the huge influx of money from Europe in "flight to safety" which is propping the dollar up in a world where everyone can invest into US stocks with a single click, and ignoring the unprecedented government debts, huge central bank interest hike (expected to go down which explains the inversion) crippling restrictions on central banks's options due to that debt and no way how to cap spending of the government... it is not that I think we well not have a depression (or even a bubble, look at the whole AI sector valuations), but I find pure technical analysis a bit hollow in this case.
excellent video and presentation. Very thorough, well thought through and insightful - great graphics as well. Thank you Peter
Uhhh, 4 more months of bullish market to go? I wish I hadn't seen this channel so early back in May so I probably wouldn't have dumped my Tesla stocks.
Always enjoy the presentation. Clear and concise. No one can predict the future 100%
If you change the rules of how you measure unemployment and things it skews the data
Just to be very clear. Unemployment is very low because people have no money on their accounts. They are in deep debt so they cant afford being jobless,so they they whatever job they can have, even if it pays 7.5$ per hour.
It’s a complete clusterfuck. One thing is sure. There is so much cash ready on the sideline that is seeking gain. That every opportunity money gets thrown at.
I will forever be indebted to you you've changed my whole life contiune to preach about your name for the world to hear you've saved me from a huge financial debt with just little investment thanks so much Mrs Pamela Willett
I'm surprised you know her too. I've been making a lot of profits investing with her for a few months now.
I'm new at this, please how can i reach your broker
she often interacts on Telegrams, using the user name.
Fxpamelawillett💯...that's it
@@Roselerma Fxpamelawillett💯...that's it
Excellent commentary on the economy and the yield curve. I really like your description about the yield curve in 1928-1929
Don’t discount nor disregard the Military Industrial Complex War Machine.
It’s absolutely a major participating component in the scheme of all things to be respectfully considered.
I think we get inflation and deflation at the same time, or in other words stagflation to the extreem
Money will become worthless, while assets will inflate. But incomes and gdp will probably deflate
We did see a slight recession last year. It did not have increased unemployment but it was two quarters of 0 or negative gdp
Its not just the inversion. Its when the yield curve climbs out of its inversion that screams recession is close.
People don’t get that the Great Depression was preceded by the great panic before WW1. 2008 is our great panic and we are about to hit the depression part.
The explanation is 4 Trillion is stupid stimulus in 2020-2021….That kept us from having to pay the Piper…… until today
Damn Clear Message to Companies from Investors: If you don't yield back and Cost more You're Considered Dead. 😅
Good thing this Is government started recession, government started inflation by low interest rates and stimulus, snd not due to other circumstances like the times you mentioned. The market is much more complex than 1928. And we don’t have the issue with rates changing and people being able to get any mortgage with NINJA loans.
We have been in a recession since last year and most likely coming out of it next summer.
The difference in then and now is the FED. The FED has increasing inserted itself into the Stock market.
Best analysis on recession and inverted yield curve. Thank you.
It surprises me why everybody gets really worked up about inflation and inflation data. Inflation has always existed, and people have been using investments to beat the inflation. The stock market return, for example, always beats inflation. I heard of someone who invested $121k last October, and has grown the portfolio by more than $400k. I need recommendations that can give me similar return.
Accounting for inflation people made an average of $96k if they had a job and based on buying power in the Great Depression and today it is $53k on average
According to various sources, they compare this period rather with the recession of the 1940´s. That would be interesting if you take a look at that period in comparison.
Recession is more of a group mental state of sudden mass loss of confidence rather than a technical failure.
Not mentioning the fact that the world moved away from a goal based currencies in 1931-33..
No! The difference between 2022, the war in Ucraine and its effect on the oil market, and the war in 1973 and its effect on the oil market are huge!!! I lived through those years and I can tell you that the oil market was completely different. In 1973 oil offer was much more limited than today, and OPEC was a great part of that offer. In 2022 Russia has not the same weight as OPEC had in 1973. It's this simple the reason why you are not seeing the same crash and the economy is more resilient!
I think the reason we didn’t crash was the Fed bailing out the banks. They would have been forced to liquidate their crap holdings otherwise.
when you are saying in the video "yield curve inversion" its when the graph goes below 0 and not when the graph changes direction (at his lowest point), because you circle the lowest point and saying "when the yield curve REALLY inverts" am I right? because you confused me a little :/
could as well be that this time all my be different than in the past: now we have bots, algorithms and AI making most of the trades; This is why fundamentals are bad for the market yet the market is in a crazy up trend- eg Nvidia: PE in 240 range !!! This is insane !
Man calls are so bad that 8 months rally bro was missed out.
Peter's insight is really interesting, yet he has put his channel's quality at risk by first turning off the comment section and second by bringing it back with all these "fake" praising comments which obviously look unreal.
One thing it taught me from this channel is to just look at simple facts, not over-complicating analysis.
"The trend is your friend until the end".
How exactly is unemployment supposed to rise when there is still a record number of available jobs? Everything here is irrelevant. The economy is vastly different and none of the yield curves prior had a international pandemic close everything prior. I am not sure how this plays out, everything I am seeing so far is small to no recession.
If I advertise 1 million new jobs at $1 per hour will the positions be filled?