I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown
Don’t expect a soft landing. We know inflation still far from its 2% destination - the FOMC didn’t raise rates now, we can never fortell their moves these days
Now it's a lot more different. No free money and layoffs piling up. Ladies and Gentlemen, adjust your seatbelts because this rough ride is bout to start.
I feel the same way. All I hear is crash crash. I feel something is coming but dam the market keeps going up and the way things are going in the economy and with people I can’t understand why it hasn’t already started to correct
It's pretty obvious.....look at the motivation behind not letting it crash, I mean it's huge. Trillions on the line, entire governments, major companies, pensions & retirement funds, global bond markets etc etc etc. I'm honestly impressed with how well they've done, but gravity still exists.
Given the re-inverting yield curve and increased market volatility, I'm reevaluating my portfolios, and the outlook is concerning. How should I reallocate funds within my 2m portfolio to navigate the panic and take advantage?
The inversion implies anticipated lower future growth, potentially resulting in decreased lending and investment. Hence, finding the appropriate asset allocation and collaborating with an advisor experienced in bear markets is imperative.
Been happening since the 1999 Dot Com Bubble and the Removal of the Rules and Regulations surrounding Commodities. Quantitative Easing by any other name, is still Systemic Spending of the Money Printer.
@ Nickdunn,.. Bingo !! The Recession, HAS Been,.. "Pushed" ,. Way,.. Out ! I'm "Locked and Loaded" for MORE,. Upside, in the Big Value Stocks and, Mag 7,. And 45% of Portfolio, in Fixed income, that's,.. "Skyrocketing" ! Interest Rates and Inflation,.. IS,. "Trending" ,. LOWER !
Good you finally caught up with what I was telling you when the yield curve inverted - that the signal for imminent recession is not the inversion but the reversal of the inversion. So many YT channels panicked when the inversion happened, repeating the misinformation, but it was actually a signal for the last leg up.
Priced in, won't cause a crash. "They" are trying to cripple the economy by causing the market to go up and up and up. They cannot allow the market to crash because then houses will get cheaper and "they" do not want you getting a house, only renting. So in short, the market will never crash. Go all in every dip and enjoy what little time we have left until we are doomed.
4y ago I told him that recession will happen in 4 years. He was telling me that things never been better and there will be roariing 20s again. He knows nothing, he learns and repeats from other youtubers who know nothing. They are all showmen. They don't have any track record before 2020 of making money from investing.They have track record of making money from views on youtube and investing them in bull market. Even they now realise they are no geniuses.
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist
Prioritizing effective personal finance management holds greater significance than the sheer amount saved, irrespective of income source. Consulting a certified financial advisor such as Stella Cornwall can offer tailored strategies to optimize financial results by reducing expenses and enhancing income, regardless of whether it's earned through employment or investments.
The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
The truth is, with this recent economy everyone needs more than their salary to be financially stable. The best thing to do with your money is to invest it rightly because money left for savings always ends up used with no returns...
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Sandy Barclays’s understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
There is no support for this guys thesis that short dated bond yields will go down as long dated bond yields go up. Long dated bond yields go down during recessions and short dated bond yields go down even more. Even during periods of high inflation in the 1970s long bonds peaked by the later stage of the (official) recession and declined. When the stock market peaks and starts to go down investors buy and hold treasuries until the storm is over. The other wrong assumption this guy is making is that inflation goes up the moment the FED lowers rates. It took 24 months after hiking rates and holding the rate above 5% to have any affect; but Hersey Financial believes that there is no lag for cutting rates. There are no historical examples to support this idea. In fact, rate cuts have the same lag. Also, the assumption that lower rates cause inflation is wrong. There were low rates all through the 2010s with 2% average inflation. What caused inflation from 2020 to 2022 was a huge government stimulus program (aided by the FED buying treasuries) that put money directly into the hands of consumers right at a time when there was a supply shock from a worldwide shutdown of production. The actions of 2020 and 2021 were unprecedented and unless repeated do not expect inflation to go up as the FED drops rates.
Now it's a lot more different. No free money and layoffs piling up. Ladies and Gentlemen, adjust your seatbelts because this rough ride is bout to start.
"Now it's different" has been said every year for the past like 20 years. And every time, they just print out of it. And everyone who sits out of life because they're scared, loses. Will this eventually not work? Yeah. Will it be next time that the system breaks? Who knows, I personally doubt it. There are countries in way worse situations with both debt and inflation than the US that keep trucking on. The US could easily have decades more of playing this crazy game.
And the stock market just rallied over lowering inflation raising rate which means the fed is dropping interest rates that will relight inflation and we repeat the 1970s all over again.
A rally doesn't mean anything The week closing when JFK was shot the market rallied also That's why you examine history and watch the trend The trend tells you, based on history, what's coming That's what this guy is explaining
@@thetapheonix Yup. Its a nasty cycle, this time the government has so much debt this time around, so it seems like they are killing our currency to keep government spending the way it is, out of control. The federal government needs to stop sending all money out to states for things like Jail, prisons, and anything justice system related and make each state find a way to pay for itself justice system, same goes for medical payments viad Medicaid and care and stop all money that leaves this country to slow spending and work on paying off the debt or we will be find out how quickly people care for america Once bricks takes off.
Chill out....if these guys had a crystal ball they would make trillions not TH-cam videos. All these content creators prove that our financial system is very complicated and history gives us indicators about what is possible, not when....... good educational resources, but all is at your own risk.... ultimately, debt based financial systems eventually go boom boom!!!
Way to show you didn't listen. And are you even a real person? There are a large number of comment's here left just to mock and heckle. And that makes me think something very fake is going on in this comment's section.
Joe makes an important point 8:53; World wide rates are in a rising cycle, likely similar to the late 1960's where we see a sharp cutting cycle interrupting a hiking cycle then rates rise at a quicker pace from 4% to a high of about 9%. We can expect the same this time.
I agree 100%. When the initial jolt hits the market, I believe everyone will run for cash and treasuries, but when the Fed really starts to cut rates to jump start the economy we will see inflation that will be double the last two years.
can you expand on this thought? youre one of the few people who have ever mentioned biflation (cantellion effect). what are your recession expectations and when do you theorize it will occur? what are your interest rate expectations?
One expert said that the yen carry trade unwind could continue into 2025. If the Fed cuts the rate, then the yen carry trade mess likely gets worse! (Stronger yen and less interest rate difference between the yen and the USD.)
Just listen to Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel and he gave some great historical perspective on markets and the economy. He points out in every year of the past 100 years you can find negative and positive opinions about where the markets were headed. Most important point is know you game i.e. time horizon for investing. Also understand the players in the markets include day traders to institutional investors which from time to time can move markets in strange ways.
Your explanation of the bull/bear steepening is the best I've come across. Made it crystal clear 👍 Thanks, Joe. Will have save that definition. Look forward to tomorrow. Hopefully, I don't mess up the connection, as I've never done a Zoom/video conference call before. Don't need them, in my trade 😁
He is good. Need to check out George Gammon. He has been talking about the yield curve un-in version for about a year. He was the first I heard point this out
@@B-H76 No he wasn't, I was correcting him about the inversion 2 years ago. Same with other channels they all panicked when the inversion happened, not understanding that it is the reversal that is the signal, not the inversion.
What causes these long run debt cycles? Nixon going off the gold standard did seem to add fuel to an already existing fire but by the 80s through 2020s it was relatively stable. I would think macro economics would be the biggest driver but what specifically is at play?
Joe - have you seen a yield curve for MBS? I read somewhere they are a better signal of the market than government debt, but can't find anywhere showing the data
How should I reallocate funds within my 2m portfolio to navigate the panic and take advantage? Given the re-inverting yield curve and increased market volatility, I'm reevaluating my portfolios, and the outlook is concerning.
The inversion implies anticipated lower future growth, potentially resulting in decreased lending and investment. Hence, finding the appropriate asset allocation and collaborating with an advisor experienced in bear markets is imperative.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since everyone's situation varies, but I've worked with ''Rachel Sarah Parrish'' for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Be the inverted yield curve changing to normal the reason for recession starting, or be the recession starting the reason for yield curve normalizing, but what is the exact reasons triggering the yield curve normalizing. Obviously the people in govt/finance want to mangle that yield curve, but what is the exact reason, WHEN and WHY it becomes totally impossible, forcing to give up the idea and let the economy do the correction moves?
The 1980’s recession has been discussed at great lengths over the past 4 decades …. And it’s been widely agreed that inflation beyond its gdp which weakened the dollar crashed markets . What we have is not bank related like way back when. What we gave is a very expensive deficit , weakening a weak dollar and no way to pay off our debts while simultaneously seeing a shitload of tech disruption causing layoffs .
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Charlotte Miller.
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
Their ...services are very genius and experienced in the market for over a decade and counting, they changed my life from a poor plumber to a better and middle class family man with 2kids.
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
How cutting rates is bearish for long duration bonds? If front end yield goes down, people would want to lock in the higher rates on the long end, so it is bullish. Is my understanding incorrect?
Market NEVER puts in its bottom before a recession. Thats why I dont think 15K was BTC bottom because its still a speculative asset. I think when this bubble pops, its going to be a dozey.
i think the yield curve will invert again one more time before uninverting (even during this video, it hasn’t uninverted, he’s saying it’s just close to uninverting). The almost uninversion is simply due to the stock drop due to the Japanese yen fiasco.. which i think is a temporary correction, nothing substantial which is why i see an impending rebound. The REAL uninversion we should be worried about is the possible fed rate cuts happening in September.. that will have long term effects. just my opinion
What's your invalidation? I.e when would you admit that you're wrong and buy higher? Timing is so important. If you sell now and the stock market rallies 20%, even if you wait for lower prices to buy, you missed out on so much potential gains, as well as the psychological impacts of thinking "was I wrong?" and then FOMO buying at the top.
I'm in it but not past January. Inflation will rise back up with a vengeance like the 70s. Bonds can become semidangerous in this possible higher for longer market for too long.
@@andrewmitchell7592 That is my play also. My "bet" is TLT will rally as unemployment increases and the Fed cuts rates. However, once it rips you have to get out because the inflation following the rates cuts will be crushing to bonds.
this is so stupid. its like saying "everytime you drop your cell phone, it breaks. you just dont know when it will break, but be prepared because it will break eventually.... oh and btw buy my class so you can know when" lol great advice there Joe
Remember a couple of days ago when the VIX spiked and the stock market was gonna crash, and how it has now almost recovered that entire drop... Yeah I remember.
Why does nobody else find it weird that the yield curve predicted a pandemic recession? How would that work unless there was already going to be a recession, that had nothing to do with the pandemic. That question was rhetorical, because i know exactly how it works. The only thing that saved us from the worst recession since the Great Depression was pandemic money printing... er, put it off for 5 years. ... Almost as if it was planned...
@@Poco-me5eqthink by January when the debet ceilling expires, also yesterday saw the sham rules takes 4-5 months to Materialize a recession. It matches.
@@Poco-me5eq I think there will be another short term sell off, a bounce, followed by a prolonged recession once the unemployment numbers start skyrocketing (they already are) followed by a big crash that everyone is expecting. I think that won't happen until mid 2025
It comes in steps.Since the 30 year,2-10,and 3 month-10 are not lining up it will be delayed slightly.30 univerted mid July,2-10 uninverted mid Sept,3 month will univert sometime Jan/Feb 2025 then the long run down to a bottom in Sept 2026.
Buy The Dip! The trend is still up, look on the bigger picture, guys. Come on. It's logic. The guys at the Central Bank need to print money, it's just how it works. With that, stocks can only go up long term.
i see the SPYders headed to 499 before next bounce …but once it’s done bouncing you’ll see some support at 468,454, but i don’t see a bottom until just under 410
This is a fantastic video. I learned a lot, but does anyone know if the length that the yield curve is inverted correlates with the length of the recession? Like maybe the longer the curve is inverted, the longer the recession? Or vice versa? Or not at all? I studied the chart and it's hard to tell. Maybe there's something I'm not seeing. Thanks.
You don’t “lose money predicting a recession.” You only lose money when you sell something for less than you paid for it. A loss or a gain happens when you sell, not before. So what you are claiming doesn’t even make any sense. All you are really saying is that with the benefit of hindsight you could have invested better. But that’s true regardless of economic conditions. So your assertion is not as profound as you seem to have thought it was.
How long does the recession usually take on average for the recession to actually start? Im trying to tell by the graph, but it is too zoomed out. It looks like it is months to about a year in alot of the examples from what i can see
If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered." Lowering interest rates will raise interest rates?? Unemployment will raise employment costs?? Please. I enjoyed the message until the reasoning ended. I do like the ultimate positivity of making money when there is blood in the streets. I think..
Private banks issued currency for most of the 18th century. They used to circulate reference books to look up and identify all the different currencies. Different time. Society was different. But it's part of history that you might find interesting. In England, I think there might be one very old private bank that can still legally issue their own currency.
The longer it goes, the deeper and longer the reccession. It's already the longest period of inversion ever. The bad thing is it was un-inverting. The last several days, it's re-inverting . I hope more people somehow believe bad times will never come. I will be cashing in. Let me thank all in advance.
Un-inverting? I don't think I'd say that yet. I mean, I think it makes sense that it should to some degree but it's still pretty darn flat. And up to 5y it's still very much inverted. From 5y on out, there is a slight positive slope but the 20y makes it look like more than it is. The 20y point has always looked like a kink in the curve but it doesn't go away. If you have a theory to explain that, I would love to hear it.
you say the stock market is going to crash, but don't sell everything. Why not ? I sold my stock etf & bought a triple leveraged bull bond etf. As interest rates decline, bond prices will go up. Another way to play the stock bear market is to buy a bear etf
I just tuned in and i am infuriated by what i have heard so far. If u dare to read this. It is august and the market usually has a octoberish correction. So u have timed your disaster prediction to coinside with that. And keep in mind that a healthy interest rate for cd is where most retirees can generate a sum of income. And where does that income go? BACK INTO THE ECONOMY. Depriving them of that income will cause a recession.
10:47 had to rd listen to the last minute 3 times. I don’t agree with you on this one. Looser monetary policy and more spending on the fiscal side doesn’t necessarily mean the consumer rates will go up if anything consumer rates are likely to go down because money at wholesale is cheaper.
![[FULL EP.16] เซียนพาลุย "เผือก-ฟรอยด์" กรี๊ดลั่น จนปูหนี | เฮ็ดอย่างเซียนหรั่ง | One Playground](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/FsqUvwS3b-Y/mqdefault.jpg)
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
Safest approach i feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown
Could you be kind enough with details of your advsor please?
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thank you
If the unemployment rate is able to remain steady while the Fed hikes and inflation falls back to target, a soft landing might be on the table
Don’t expect a soft landing. We know inflation still far from its 2% destination - the FOMC didn’t raise rates now, we can never fortell their moves these days
Fixed income Tbills and bonds may work for you while you try to figure out the next entry point for stocks
Who are you working with please?
Nice recommendation. Lady looks great seems to be worth her salt. I set up a call with her, hopefully I can get some insight into
1 time in 17 tries they threaded this needle (1994), the rest all ended in recession.
Two years later and I'm still waiting.
This time is different huh lol
Now it's a lot more different. No free money and layoffs piling up. Ladies and Gentlemen, adjust your seatbelts because this rough ride is bout to start.
I feel the same way. All I hear is crash crash. I feel something is coming but dam the market keeps going up and the way things are going in the economy and with people I can’t understand why it hasn’t already started to correct
It's pretty obvious.....look at the motivation behind not letting it crash, I mean it's huge. Trillions on the line, entire governments, major companies, pensions & retirement funds, global bond markets etc etc etc. I'm honestly impressed with how well they've done, but gravity still exists.
@@jlmm3968 Foreigners with money are buying whatever they can because they are easing in Europe. I could be wrong. I'm still trying to understand.
Given the re-inverting yield curve and increased market volatility, I'm reevaluating my portfolios, and the outlook is concerning. How should I reallocate funds within my 2m portfolio to navigate the panic and take advantage?
The inversion implies anticipated lower future growth, potentially resulting in decreased lending and investment. Hence, finding the appropriate asset allocation and collaborating with an advisor experienced in bear markets is imperative.
That's incredible. Could you recommend who you work with? I really could use some help at this moment
Thank you for the lead. I searched her site up and filled the form. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Just because it SHOULD crash, doesn't mean it WILL. our money managers keep sweeping the debt under the "future rug"
Been happening since the 1999 Dot Com Bubble and the Removal of the Rules and Regulations surrounding Commodities.
Quantitative Easing by any other name, is still Systemic Spending of the Money Printer.
@ Nickdunn,.. Bingo !! The Recession, HAS Been,.. "Pushed" ,. Way,.. Out !
I'm "Locked and Loaded" for MORE,. Upside, in the Big Value Stocks and, Mag 7,. And 45% of Portfolio, in Fixed income, that's,.. "Skyrocketing" !
Interest Rates and Inflation,.. IS,. "Trending" ,. LOWER !
@@douglash.8862 keeping 50% powder myself...so hard not to deploy everything 😅
@@bobdobalina8910Exactly and it will continue.
Thanks 25% of spenders population and 20% well fed Boomers 😊
Good you finally caught up with what I was telling you when the yield curve inverted - that the signal for imminent recession is not the inversion but the reversal of the inversion. So many YT channels panicked when the inversion happened, repeating the misinformation, but it was actually a signal for the last leg up.
Priced in, won't cause a crash. "They" are trying to cripple the economy by causing the market to go up and up and up. They cannot allow the market to crash because then houses will get cheaper and "they" do not want you getting a house, only renting. So in short, the market will never crash. Go all in every dip and enjoy what little time we have left until we are doomed.
4y ago I told him that recession will happen in 4 years. He was telling me that things never been better and there will be roariing 20s again. He knows nothing, he learns and repeats from other youtubers who know nothing. They are all showmen. They don't have any track record before 2020 of making money from investing.They have track record of making money from views on youtube and investing them in bull market. Even they now realise they are no geniuses.
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
There are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist
Prioritizing effective personal finance management holds greater significance than the sheer amount saved, irrespective of income source. Consulting a certified financial advisor such as Stella Cornwall can offer tailored strategies to optimize financial results by reducing expenses and enhancing income, regardless of whether it's earned through employment or investments.
Stella Cornwall is really a good investment advisor. Was privileged to attend some of her seminars. That's how I started my own crypto investment.
I totally agree! Her transparency is something I really admire. She's open and honest about everything.
By investing in high dividend yield stocks, ETFs, and equity, I managed to make a net profit of around $115k. It's been quite a successful venture!
The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Sandy Barclays program is widely available online..
The truth is, with this recent economy everyone needs more than their salary to be financially stable. The best thing to do with your money is to invest it rightly because money left for savings always ends up used with no returns...
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Recession are unavailable part of the economic cycle, all you can do is prepared for them and plan accordingly.
Sandy Barclays’s understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
Excellent analysis. Fortunately for us this man takes the time to explain developments to anyone who will listen.
There is no support for this guys thesis that short dated bond yields will go down as long dated bond yields go up. Long dated bond yields go down during recessions and short dated bond yields go down even more.
Even during periods of high inflation in the 1970s long bonds peaked by the later stage of the (official) recession and declined. When the stock market peaks and starts to go down investors buy and hold treasuries until the storm is over. The other wrong assumption this guy is making is that inflation goes up the moment the FED lowers rates. It took 24 months after hiking rates and holding the rate above 5% to have any affect; but Hersey Financial believes that there is no lag for cutting rates. There are no historical examples to support this idea. In fact, rate cuts have the same lag. Also, the assumption that lower rates cause inflation is wrong. There were low rates all through the 2010s with 2% average inflation. What caused inflation from 2020 to 2022 was a huge government stimulus program (aided by the FED buying treasuries) that put money directly into the hands of consumers right at a time when there was a supply shock from a worldwide shutdown of production. The actions of 2020 and 2021 were unprecedented and unless repeated do not expect inflation to go up as the FED drops rates.
Plus you realize the farmers are not getting paid to farm... they are getting paid for NOT farming, (wetlands, wildlife area, etc.)
Now it's a lot more different. No free money and layoffs piling up. Ladies and Gentlemen, adjust your seatbelts because this rough ride is bout to start.
"Now it's different" has been said every year for the past like 20 years. And every time, they just print out of it. And everyone who sits out of life because they're scared, loses. Will this eventually not work? Yeah. Will it be next time that the system breaks? Who knows, I personally doubt it. There are countries in way worse situations with both debt and inflation than the US that keep trucking on. The US could easily have decades more of playing this crazy game.
@@jsedge2473i agree it’s different.looming world war ,end if the current fiat system ,tradfi going.
@@Johnnyrock-23245world War means a lot more money printing.
Sorry, but the trend is up. I only invest on facts. They will print more money like on last 40 years.
I wish everybody the best of luck! ❤😅
And the stock market just rallied over lowering inflation raising rate which means the fed is dropping interest rates that will relight inflation and we repeat the 1970s all over again.
A rally doesn't mean anything
The week closing when JFK was shot the market rallied also
That's why you examine history and watch the trend
The trend tells you, based on history, what's coming
That's what this guy is explaining
Correct, no one seems to notice that.
@@thetapheonix Yup. Its a nasty cycle, this time the government has so much debt this time around, so it seems like they are killing our currency to keep government spending the way it is, out of control. The federal government needs to stop sending all money out to states for things like Jail, prisons, and anything justice system related and make each state find a way to pay for itself justice system, same goes for medical payments viad Medicaid and care and stop all money that leaves this country to slow spending and work on paying off the debt or we will be find out how quickly people care for america Once bricks takes off.
Good advice to not sell at the time of dis-inversion. Equities do not typically peak until months after the 2/10 spread dis-inverts.
Chill out....if these guys had a crystal ball they would make trillions not TH-cam videos. All these content creators prove that our financial system is very complicated and history gives us indicators about what is possible, not when....... good educational resources, but all is at your own risk.... ultimately, debt based financial systems eventually go boom boom!!!
Way to show you didn't listen. And are you even a real person? There are a large number of comment's here left just to mock and heckle. And that makes me think something very fake is going on in this comment's section.
Not really.
Joe makes an important point 8:53; World wide rates are in a rising cycle, likely similar to the late 1960's where we see a sharp cutting cycle interrupting a hiking cycle then rates rise at a quicker pace from 4% to a high of about 9%. We can expect the same this time.
Money supply money supply money supply. The historical data is not reliable given the change to fiat and our ballooning money supply.
Agree
I agree 100%. When the initial jolt hits the market, I believe everyone will run for cash and treasuries, but when the Fed really starts to cut rates to jump start the economy we will see inflation that will be double the last two years.
Its not the re-verting but the time between inversion and nominal credit creation slowdown hitting the end of the cantellion effects
can you expand on this thought? youre one of the few people who have ever mentioned biflation (cantellion effect). what are your recession expectations and when do you theorize it will occur? what are your interest rate expectations?
One expert said that the yen carry trade unwind could continue into 2025. If the Fed cuts the rate, then the yen carry trade mess likely gets worse! (Stronger yen and less interest rate difference between the yen and the USD.)
This is true and only one of many aspects that will bring about the hard times fast approaching
Thanks for clearly explaining the short and long end of the curves!
Just listen to Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel and he gave some great historical perspective on markets and the economy. He points out in every year of the past 100 years you can find negative and positive opinions about where the markets were headed. Most important point is know you game i.e. time horizon for investing. Also understand the players in the markets include day traders to institutional investors which from time to time can move markets in strange ways.
Your explanation of the bull/bear steepening is the best I've come across. Made it crystal clear 👍 Thanks, Joe. Will have save that definition.
Look forward to tomorrow. Hopefully, I don't mess up the connection, as I've never done a Zoom/video conference call before. Don't need them, in my trade 😁
Thanks so much 👍🏼
This is THE most informative finance channel on TH-cam...PERIOD.
it’s really not, this guy just tries to scare you into selling every day. he’s always wrong
He is good. Need to check out George Gammon. He has been talking about the yield curve un-in version for about a year. He was the first I heard point this out
@@B-H76 No he wasn't, I was correcting him about the inversion 2 years ago. Same with other channels they all panicked when the inversion happened, not understanding that it is the reversal that is the signal, not the inversion.
@maverickofwallstreet beats this
What causes these long run debt cycles? Nixon going off the gold standard did seem to add fuel to an already existing fire but by the 80s through 2020s it was relatively stable. I would think macro economics would be the biggest driver but what specifically is at play?
Extremely informative, thanks JB! Blessings!
Joe - have you seen a yield curve for MBS? I read somewhere they are a better signal of the market than government debt, but can't find anywhere showing the data
How should I reallocate funds within my 2m portfolio to navigate the panic and take advantage? Given the re-inverting yield curve and increased market volatility, I'm reevaluating my portfolios, and the outlook is concerning.
The inversion implies anticipated lower future growth, potentially resulting in decreased lending and investment. Hence, finding the appropriate asset allocation and collaborating with an advisor experienced in bear markets is imperative.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
I'm cautious about giving specific recommendations since everyone's situation varies, but I've worked with ''Rachel Sarah Parrish'' for years and highly recommend her. Look her up to see if she meets your criteria.
Be the inverted yield curve changing to normal the reason for recession starting, or be the recession starting the reason for yield curve normalizing, but what is the exact reasons triggering the yield curve normalizing. Obviously the people in govt/finance want to mangle that yield curve, but what is the exact reason, WHEN and WHY it becomes totally impossible, forcing to give up the idea and let the economy do the correction moves?
The crash is buffered by the fact we've had a rolling recession for 2 years. Much of the steam is gone from the drop
The drop? What drop! It’s all relative and we’ve NOT experienced a drop …… yet.
@@justincase3108 multiple sectors have seen 20% hits already and recovering
The 1980’s recession has been discussed at great lengths over the past 4 decades …. And it’s been widely agreed that inflation beyond its gdp which weakened the dollar crashed markets . What we have is not bank related like way back when. What we gave is a very expensive deficit , weakening a weak dollar and no way to pay off our debts while simultaneously seeing a shitload of tech disruption causing layoffs .
It’s all by design it was a reason for Covid 🤫
Always appreciated
Thanks Joe
Buffett riding that curve
until this morning after you made this video, of course. going back the other way.
Yes, but in previous versions, was the world going into a expanding policy?
I didnt always like Josh but after following for a few years he's proved his good will to real folks!
This guy is Joe
I miss named him the other day too, and I've watched him for years, even met him in Vegas. I'm not immune from brain farts lol
haha, thanks Morgan
I like some Tech Western Digital hard drives , Analog devices and Micro Chip.
These are always used*
I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Charlotte Miller.
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I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
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How cutting rates is bearish for long duration bonds? If front end yield goes down, people would want to lock in the higher rates on the long end, so it is bullish. Is my understanding incorrect?
Is there any correlation between how long the yield curve is inverted and how painful the preceding recession is?
The Great Depression was something like 700 days and my understanding we have surpassed that.
Thank you, Joe, your amazing, please don’t stop helping out✌️
If you see stocks go parabolic in Nov/Dec/Jan you know it’s on the way.Sept/Oct election years are usually volatile but down months.
Market NEVER puts in its bottom before a recession. Thats why I dont think 15K was BTC bottom because its still a speculative asset. I think when this bubble pops, its going to be a dozey.
Fantastic video! Awesome!
i think the yield curve will invert again one more time before uninverting (even during this video, it hasn’t uninverted, he’s saying it’s just close to uninverting). The almost uninversion is simply due to the stock drop due to the Japanese yen fiasco.. which i think is a temporary correction, nothing substantial which is why i see an impending rebound. The REAL uninversion we should be worried about is the possible fed rate cuts happening in September.. that will have long term effects. just my opinion
This time is different...
Famous last words
😂 betting you are under 30
@@andrewmitchell7592 It was sarcasm....35bdw ;)
When absolutely everyone expects a recession, that's a pretty good sign for things
What's your invalidation? I.e when would you admit that you're wrong and buy higher? Timing is so important. If you sell now and the stock market rallies 20%, even if you wait for lower prices to buy, you missed out on so much potential gains, as well as the psychological impacts of thinking "was I wrong?" and then FOMO buying at the top.
Hey joe I was wondering. What stocks or investments do you think will be resistant to and even thrive in a recession?
Gold, silver, necessity businesses, etc.
What are your thoughts on buying long term bonds like TLT when yield curve is inverting?
I'm in it but not past January. Inflation will rise back up with a vengeance like the 70s. Bonds can become semidangerous in this possible higher for longer market for too long.
@@andrewmitchell7592 That is my play also. My "bet" is TLT will rally as unemployment increases and the Fed cuts rates. However, once it rips you have to get out because the inflation following the rates cuts will be crushing to bonds.
@@rodneycaudill1379 @rodneycaudill1379 thank you both for your insights... I agree, I'm worried it might be too early to claim victory on inflation
For the bull run: DOT, FIL, SOL. Best ICO? Definitely Versidium.
If the short term bonds have like 2% that is a bad way to protect your money from inflation, that is 4-5%...
I don't get it.
When rates get cut the bond yields go down and bond prices appreciate.
Today the 2 and 10 year bonds are finally the same. We have finally reverted. We have a record 785 days inverted.
this is so stupid. its like saying "everytime you drop your cell phone, it breaks. you just dont know when it will break, but be prepared because it will break eventually.... oh and btw buy my class so you can know when" lol great advice there Joe
Remember a couple of days ago when the VIX spiked and the stock market was gonna crash, and how it has now almost recovered that entire drop... Yeah I remember.
Focusing on presales for the best returns. Versidium is my top pick!
you are an incredibly good explainer. A million Ivy League profs could take a shot at this and you'd beat them all.
Why does nobody else find it weird that the yield curve predicted a pandemic recession?
How would that work unless there was already going to be a recession, that had nothing to do with the pandemic.
That question was rhetorical, because i know exactly how it works. The only thing that saved us from the worst recession since the Great Depression was pandemic money printing... er, put it off for 5 years.
... Almost as if it was planned...
That's datruth 💯
Near term forward spread still being beat down.
I'm STILL waiting for this crash that you've mentioned about for about 2 years now
2 years? You mean 2022? The market was literally red all of 2022, it was down 25-30% from highs at one point
The crash is still some months away but the bear market should start Sep or Oct.
@@Poco-me5eqthink by January when the debet ceilling expires, also yesterday saw the sham rules takes 4-5 months to Materialize a recession. It matches.
@@Poco-me5eq I think there will be another short term sell off, a bounce, followed by a prolonged recession once the unemployment numbers start skyrocketing (they already are) followed by a big crash that everyone is expecting. I think that won't happen until mid 2025
This is the dead-cat bounce. We're at the end of it.
My grey hair turning white waiting for the crash
You still have hair?
They have just been manipulating it since.....1929!!
Betting Versidium will pump before XRP does.
It comes in steps.Since the 30 year,2-10,and 3 month-10 are not lining up it will be delayed slightly.30 univerted mid July,2-10 uninverted mid Sept,3 month will univert sometime Jan/Feb 2025 then the long run down to a bottom in Sept 2026.
If they slash 125 BPS- then it will not be inverted- BUT it would cause so much inflation in housing that it would eat away any gains post COVID.
Buy The Dip! The trend is still up, look on the bigger picture, guys. Come on. It's logic. The guys at the Central Bank need to print money, it's just how it works. With that, stocks can only go up long term.
So I should sell everything? Go to cash?
BTC and Versidium are my main holds, maybe adding some ETH.
We can just print more money for bailouts again. It's been working fantabulously like all of our other tricks 😂
How did gold perform during those times of market crashes? Anyone?
But at times it take 6 months (1989) since it uninvents till market bottoms and at other times it can take 14 months (2007)
First comment! Boom!
Love this channel
Thanks, John!
I was going to say the same lol
Thanks for scaring me
i see the SPYders headed to 499 before next bounce …but once it’s done bouncing you’ll see some support at 468,454, but i don’t see a bottom until just under 410
What are you suing to compare the different yield curves? Thanks
This is a fantastic video. I learned a lot, but does anyone know if the length that the yield curve is inverted correlates with the length of the recession? Like maybe the longer the curve is inverted, the longer the recession? Or vice versa? Or not at all? I studied the chart and it's hard to tell. Maybe there's something I'm not seeing. Thanks.
Qventi is everywhere now, just like Versidium was.
This is for treasuries right not corporate debt?
Versidium is the hot topic in my crypto chats. Rising star for sure!
Expecting Versidium to go 100x once it’s live on Binance.
More money is lost trying to predict the recession vs the recession. Let that sink in
You don’t “lose money predicting a recession.” You only lose money when you sell something for less than you paid for it. A loss or a gain happens when you sell, not before.
So what you are claiming doesn’t even make any sense. All you are really saying is that with the benefit of hindsight you could have invested better. But that’s true regardless of economic conditions. So your assertion is not as profound as you seem to have thought it was.
@@punditryRecession is coming! Nvidia rips 1000% 😂
Thanks for letting me know how you determine whether or not a recession is coming. I wasn’t surprised 😂
@@punditryYes you do. You lose it to inflation.
@@MrZozueI pity anyone who has to rely on the market not crashing in order to beat inflation 🙄
How long does the recession usually take on average for the recession to actually start? Im trying to tell by the graph, but it is too zoomed out. It looks like it is months to about a year in alot of the examples from what i can see
Is there a place we can watch your free August 15th Zoom meeting?
He could be right stocks are way too expensive. Let’s see if the printing of money offsets this. Future is set
If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered." Lowering interest rates will raise interest rates?? Unemployment will raise employment costs?? Please.
I enjoyed the message until the reasoning ended. I do like the ultimate positivity of making money when there is blood in the streets. I think..
Private banks issued currency for most of the 18th century. They used to circulate reference books to look up and identify all the different currencies. Different time. Society was different. But it's part of history that you might find interesting. In England, I think there might be one very old private bank that can still legally issue their own currency.
No more "5% T-bill and Chill"?
Nope
Thanks Bill Clinton and deregulation
You can chill in long bonds instead
Unfortunately not. This is where the short term 5% to 5.5% gravy train ends. It was a decent ride and nice place to park emergency funds only.
The longer it goes, the deeper and longer the reccession. It's already the longest period of inversion ever. The bad thing is it was un-inverting. The last several days, it's re-inverting . I hope more people somehow believe bad times will never come. I will be cashing in. Let me thank all in advance.
3:28 I'm going to be hearing, "It happened in..." in my sleep tonight. 😂
Versidium is shaping up to be the best ICO this year. Get in early!
Un-inverting? I don't think I'd say that yet. I mean, I think it makes sense that it should to some degree but it's still pretty darn flat. And up to 5y it's still very much inverted. From 5y on out, there is a slight positive slope but the 20y makes it look like more than it is. The 20y point has always looked like a kink in the curve but it doesn't go away. If you have a theory to explain that, I would love to hear it.
It has been inverting and un-inverting for couple of times but still nothing
You seriously need to get Versidium right now!
But how do you hedge or make money in bear markets
TLT or TMF are safer than stocks now ..
you say the stock market is going to crash, but don't sell everything. Why not ? I sold my stock etf & bought a triple leveraged bull bond etf. As interest rates decline, bond prices will go up. Another way to play the stock bear market is to buy a bear etf
I just tuned in and i am infuriated by what i have heard so far. If u dare to read this. It is august and the market usually has a octoberish correction. So u have timed your disaster prediction to coinside with that.
And keep in mind that a healthy interest rate for cd is where most retirees can generate a sum of income. And where does that income go? BACK INTO THE ECONOMY.
Depriving them of that income will cause a recession.
I am ready... lets go !!!
so if the fed cuts, TLT will go down?
Nope - it will go up
Interesting analysis
Stocks will go parabolic before next massive crash...
Just watch and learn...
He advised the top 1% as a low level stockbroker... that is a good one. Nobody believes that and certainly i don"t.
Shopify partnership puts Versidium on the map. Big boom incoming!
10:47 had to rd listen to the last minute 3 times.
I don’t agree with you on this one. Looser monetary policy and more spending on the fiscal side doesn’t necessarily mean the consumer rates will go up if anything consumer rates are likely to go down because money at wholesale is cheaper.
I was thinking the same.