Wow!! Years learning about economy, because I became obsessed with our economy from the 2008 crash. And this is the first video I’ve seen made by anyone on the internet, that truly explains how it works for everyone to understand. From point A to point B PerfectLy executed! ☝🏽👏🏽👏🏽 thank you for your channel!
personally have been buying stocks since the beginning of the year and yet nothing's changed, but I've been reading articles of people still in the same market pulling off over 350k in just a couple months. Its tough out here!
@@Tsunaniis-j5l needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
Seems to me like there is a huge causality issue here. The inversion curve is basically a proxy for how positive the outlook of investors is, and the less positive the outlook of investors the more likely they are to start selling and cause a recession. It’s impossible to say if one would happen without the other, Because the closer the yield curve gets to inverted people probably start having more negative outlooks because of it, which drops the yield curve further
Also in my opinion bond market can give us valuable information when analyzing just as described in the video. Bonds are being disregarded at the moment but they might bounce back in the future who knows.
Excellent video! No way I'd buy T-Bills, as they are WAY lower than the rate of inflation, but this was an excellent explanation of how yield curves work. I do think we are looking at recession. I think we would have had one in 2020 without COVID, considering how things were looking in 2019. They money printed their way out of the last one. If they do it again, we will see hyperinflation.
Inverted yield curve is like a cough to a cold. Every time someone coughs is not because they have a cold. But the cough is always 1 symptom of a cold. Is the patient suffering other symptoms? Personally, I think yes. The patient seem quite ill. But as you said, the economy is not directly correlated to market. The claim has always been that the market is 6 months ahead. I am short term, April, maybe part of may, bullish. Mid term and possibly long term, 2 or more years, very bearish.
Correct, Time In the Market beats timing. But to be sure to be sure to be sure, I have shorted both the Dow and the ASX (as insurance on my long positions - which have been weighted to high inflation). Interest rates are rising thus it makes sense that the stimulus is being pullled and economic activity may well slow. Happy to lose my shorts if the market goes up, but even happier to invest more money a a lower price if markets ease. Sometimes you just can’t lose..
Predicting there's going to be a recession sometime in the next 6 months to 2 years isn't much of a story. Anyone could take a chance and predict that. Peter Schiff's been predicting this for the last 20 years and he's always right and we always move through it to greater gains in productivity and market highs. So if anyone wants to be successful all we need to do is be prepared that every 2 years the market pulls back 10% and every 6 years there's a market crash of 25%. Don't sale, keep investing and expect a recession cycle basically every 10 years. This is nothing new. Take a look at the stock market over 100 years all these "great recession's are barely noticeable..
Even the history of the stock market doesn’t really tell us anything. The global population has gone from less than 1 billion to almost 8 billion. Many countries with exchanges didn’t even exist a few hundred years ago. The internet has made everything completely different in the last 30 years. The rules of the game change every day.
When this video was made, 3mon-10yr curve was at +2%. As of April 2023 (1yr later) it’s at -1.6, rivaling the worst it’s been on record. The fed is going to raise the rate again tomorrow, which will further this trend. Get ready people, we are in for a bumpy ride.
To manage your money and achieve financial freedom. Start Investing, that’s the only true way to multiply your income and stay rich always. I spent my 30’s and 40’s lnvesting in stocks and real estate. That’s the best thing I did for myself. Recently discovered cry-pto now and life feels more easier
Generally, achieving a productive lnvestment requires a higher knowledge. For this reason, it’s best advised to get a financial consultant who would guide you and be a solid support structure while investing. I operate with a licensed professional and it has been a promising experience with her, so far my lnvestments has always yielded excellent returns.
To get more details about my consultant, do a quick internet research where I believe you can easily approach her from. Do the research with her full name; (Anna Kristine services)
@Julia Wagner As to get more information about my financiaI advisor, do a quick research on the internet where I believe you can approach her easily. Do the check with her full names; (Anna Kristine Services)
@Hans That's right, working with a professionaI is best compared to none. They have a wealth of information which helps a lot in creating wealth, I know Anna and I'm happy she was mentioned here. Working with her made me understand the fact that you can't compare growing your lnvestments yourself to that of an IA
Lots of noise in the markets as per usual. If you're an investor for the long term then being invested into quality companies with a history of being resistant to recessions may be a good option. On the flip side, if you are a trader, then manage your stops carefully. I don't see a reason to panic and go to cash especially when inflation is as rampant as it is now. As the last table showed, the S&P still in many periods produced at least some return on your capital. This is still better than the bank and will at least be better than sitting in cash losing 7% year on year
Love this stuff been learning so much about all things related to investing and the economy and your videos are really engaging and makes learning these things a lot more simplified
I think, for most of us, there’s not much else to do but stay in and hunker down. Seek safety in healthcare, etc. I’m still exposed in my pet sector, but I refuse to budge there b/c I believe in its future. Also I refuse to go all in on PMs. Great video. Thank you.
Nice job on the yield curve inversion and the relationship between yield and bond prices. The most important thing is, there's no reason to panic on momentary inversions. The time to dump stocks and jump into bonds or bond ETFs, like the TLT, ideally is when yields peak.
@@fantasypills Yes, but that'll coincide with the Fed's end to rate hikes. The consensus seems to be that a fed funds rate of somewhere between 2 to 3% will be the breaking point where the Fed will stop, but who knows. There are 6 meetings left this year. The next is May 3rd & 4th. With the 8.5% inflation rate, the thought is the next hike could be 50 to 75 basis points.
Two thumbs up, Tusla Oklahoma, place of the Black Wallstreet Massacre, it's where I'm from and how I come. Now I know why the United States FED reserve has collaborated with the Wall Street cowgirls against me in the stockmarket daily. It all makes sense now I'm a true descendant of Black Wall Street being oppressed by American aristocrats. The u.s. stock market is down because they don't want to see one black man OG Reggie B win at the game. Now go figure that you don't have to take my word for it, ask somebody in the know. I,m Currently in the stock TQQQ at $70.00 keep an eye on that number and see how long it takes to get back there. I've been in it since 01/01/2022 Racism is Very much alive and active in America's stockmarket, therefore my brothers and sisters of colors and different nations beware.. ..
Great Video Brandon. I thought the research around the limitations section was particularly helpful. To be honest, to this date I've just ignored it based on the "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy while others are fearful" quote but its nice to know that there is further justification as to why this simply may not be an issue at all and more media plastering the doom and gloom clickbait all over their websites.
I wonder if there’s any confounding variables with this indicator for instance if the media covers it as a strong recession indicator it may cause a behavioral change for investors towards long term security.
Yield curve = sentiment. Compare it with a market liquidity indicator, commodity basket and dollar index and you get the clearest picture of the economy
Almost every country has huge amounts of public debt, so that itself isn't a good sign for the world. So we must always be prepared for recessions, market crash etc 😎😎😎
I'm bit late to this party, but why long term bond yield goes down(price goes up) when interest rates go up? When interest rate goes up old bond demand should go down, as new bonds get higher coupon(interest) rates, hence old bond price should go down and increases the yield, isnt it?
It’s actually 10-year Treasury vs. Federal Funds target and it’s one 10 leading indicators. Check out the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and it’s published by the Conference Board. You won’t get this from TH-cam.
Excellent explanation. You should do another explanation video on Japan (specifically around Charlie Munger's comments in Phil Town's recent video: refer 5-6 minute mark)
If you make a chart on which x axes represents number of people eaten by a shark and y axes represents number of icecream cones sold you can see a relation between them. Charts and unexplained data cannot be evidence of recession. The fact that it happened in past doesn't mean it will happen in the future.
I don’t know how something that can take as long as two years can possibly be called a predictor. In that case you might as well call leap years a predictor of recession.
Someone told me that actually, the inverted curve has predicted 50 of the last 6 recessions...exactly how many times has it inverted and then we DID NOT then have a recession?
You previously had an intro at the beginning of your videos that was pretty annoying with a load music. Thank you for deciding not to use it anymore. Your videos look much more professional now.
![“อ.เบียร์ คนตื่นธรรม” มาตามคำเรียกร้อง แหกศาสตร์ฮวงจุ้ย เตือนสติอย่างมงาย | แฉ 7 พ.ย. 67 [1/3]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/5fc4S3xBNfc/mqdefault.jpg)
Wow!! Years learning about economy, because I became obsessed with our economy from the 2008 crash. And this is the first video I’ve seen made by anyone on the internet, that truly explains how it works for everyone to understand. From point A to point B PerfectLy executed! ☝🏽👏🏽👏🏽 thank you for your channel!
personally have been buying stocks since the beginning of the year and yet nothing's changed, but I've been reading articles of people still in the same market pulling off over 350k in just a couple months. Its tough out here!
@@Tsunaniis-j5l needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
@@MakeamericaGreatagain-h7j How do I Meet this Lady?
@@devereauxjnr credits to NICOLE DESIREE SIMON, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up
@@MakeamericaGreatagain-h7j Thanks for the info, i found her website and sent a message hopefully she replies soon.
Just 3 minutes into the video ... and this is the best explanation I've ever seen. Thank you!
⬆️Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated 👍 feel free to message me directly. Text for questions, investment guide and tip..⬆️⬆️..
Seems to me like there is a huge causality issue here. The inversion curve is basically a proxy for how positive the outlook of investors is, and the less positive the outlook of investors the more likely they are to start selling and cause a recession. It’s impossible to say if one would happen without the other, Because the closer the yield curve gets to inverted people probably start having more negative outlooks because of it, which drops the yield curve further
Exactly the topic I wanted to understand better. Bonds. Thank you, I love your videos, top quality
I was self teaching myself about bonds and this closed all the gaps in my knowledge. Excellent video
Funny how little attention regular investors pay to the bond market. It is SIGNIFICANTLY bigger than the stock market.
Not as interesting
Also in my opinion bond market can give us valuable information when analyzing just as described in the video. Bonds are being disregarded at the moment but they might bounce back in the future who knows.
Why would you.... negative real yields.
@@TheDeatheater3 v00
Excellent video! No way I'd buy T-Bills, as they are WAY lower than the rate of inflation, but this was an excellent explanation of how yield curves work.
I do think we are looking at recession. I think we would have had one in 2020 without COVID, considering how things were looking in 2019. They money printed their way out of the last one. If they do it again, we will see hyperinflation.
Inverted yield curve is like a cough to a cold. Every time someone coughs is not because they have a cold. But the cough is always 1 symptom of a cold. Is the patient suffering other symptoms? Personally, I think yes. The patient seem quite ill. But as you said, the economy is not directly correlated to market. The claim has always been that the market is 6 months ahead. I am short term, April, maybe part of may, bullish. Mid term and possibly long term, 2 or more years, very bearish.
Thank you so much! Best video in explaining the market / bond yield. Very informative. Thank you! 😘
Correct, Time In the Market beats timing. But to be sure to be sure to be sure, I have shorted both the Dow and the ASX (as insurance on my long positions - which have been weighted to high inflation). Interest rates are rising thus it makes sense that the stimulus is being pullled and economic activity may well slow. Happy to lose my shorts if the market goes up, but even happier to invest more money a a lower price if markets ease. Sometimes you just can’t lose..
⬆️Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated 👍 feel free to message me directly. Text for questions, investment guide and tip..⬆️⬆️..
You present amazingly like I haven't heard ever before! I love it.
The video editing is top notch. Great content.
Predicting there's going to be a recession sometime in the next 6 months to 2 years isn't much of a story. Anyone could take a chance and predict that. Peter Schiff's been predicting this for the last 20 years and he's always right and we always move through it to greater gains in productivity and market highs. So if anyone wants to be successful all we need to do is be prepared that every 2 years the market pulls back 10% and every 6 years there's a market crash of 25%. Don't sale, keep investing and expect a recession cycle basically every 10 years. This is nothing new. Take a look at the stock market over 100 years all these "great recession's are barely noticeable..
You're gonna notice THIS one for many years
@UCQvJuyL0OQGNZS4gEzUYmWA It didn't in Japan
Even the history of the stock market doesn’t really tell us anything. The global population has gone from less than 1 billion to almost 8 billion. Many countries with exchanges didn’t even exist a few hundred years ago. The internet has made everything completely different in the last 30 years. The rules of the game change every day.
@@MrChiangching why would this one be different than previous? And Japan's stock market had much higher valuations prior to its big crash.
@@coyrex1250 We owe more money and can't drop interest rates like before
Greetings from Taiwan. Thank you for making this topic so clear and easy to understand!
Your video quality is going THROUGH THE ROOF!
Amazing content man. You have easily become one of my favorite finance channels
When this video was made, 3mon-10yr curve was at +2%. As of April 2023 (1yr later) it’s at -1.6, rivaling the worst it’s been on record. The fed is going to raise the rate again tomorrow, which will further this trend. Get ready people, we are in for a bumpy ride.
Yup, now mid November and the curves been inverted for a while. Slowly starting to flatten.
To manage your money and achieve financial freedom. Start Investing, that’s the only true way to multiply your income and stay rich always. I spent my 30’s and 40’s lnvesting in stocks and real estate. That’s the best thing I did for myself. Recently discovered cry-pto now and life feels more easier
Generally, achieving a productive lnvestment requires a higher knowledge. For this reason, it’s best advised to get a financial consultant who would guide you and be a solid support structure while investing. I operate with a licensed professional and it has been a promising experience with her, so far my lnvestments has always yielded excellent returns.
To get more details about my consultant, do a quick internet research where I believe you can easily approach her from. Do the research with her full name; (Anna Kristine services)
@Julia Wagner As to get more information about my financiaI advisor, do a quick research on the internet where I believe you can approach her easily. Do the check with her full names; (Anna Kristine Services)
@Hans That's right, working with a professionaI is best compared to none. They have a wealth of information which helps a lot in creating wealth, I know Anna and I'm happy she was mentioned here.
Working with her made me understand the fact that you can't compare growing your lnvestments yourself to that of an IA
Best TH-cam channel for investors.
Thanks.
Helpline 📲 👆👆
Great Video! :) Really well explained.
Lots of noise in the markets as per usual. If you're an investor for the long term then being invested into quality companies with a history of being resistant to recessions may be a good option. On the flip side, if you are a trader, then manage your stops carefully. I don't see a reason to panic and go to cash especially when inflation is as rampant as it is now. As the last table showed, the S&P still in many periods produced at least some return on your capital. This is still better than the bank and will at least be better than sitting in cash losing 7% year on year
Very very well written and presented! 10/10 video
Helpline 📲 👆👆
Great video. Made it very simple but still kept to your values of not selling.
Helpline 📲 👆👆
Love this stuff been learning so much about all things related to investing and the economy and your videos are really engaging and makes learning these things a lot more simplified
Lovely visuals. Well-spoken. Thank you dude
I think, for most of us, there’s not much else to do but stay in and hunker down. Seek safety in healthcare, etc. I’m still exposed in my pet sector, but I refuse to budge there b/c I believe in its future. Also I refuse to go all in on PMs.
Great video. Thank you.
Nice job on the yield curve inversion and the relationship between yield and bond prices.
The most important thing is, there's no reason to panic on momentary inversions.
The time to dump stocks and jump into bonds or bond ETFs, like the TLT, ideally is when yields peak.
when the short term yield is peaking?
@@fantasypills
Yes, but that'll coincide with the Fed's end to rate hikes.
The consensus seems to be that a fed funds rate of somewhere between 2 to 3% will be the breaking point where the Fed will stop, but who knows.
There are 6 meetings left this year. The next is May 3rd & 4th. With the 8.5% inflation rate, the thought is the next hike could be 50 to 75 basis points.
I heard my voice in that intro ;)
Mate I'm literally ripping your content now haha. *pls don't claim me*
To say it in easily understandable words: we are f*cked 😁 great video btw, amazing editing
Two thumbs up, Tusla Oklahoma, place of the Black Wallstreet Massacre, it's where I'm from and how I come. Now I know why the United States FED reserve has collaborated with the Wall Street cowgirls against me in the stockmarket daily. It all makes sense now I'm a true descendant of Black Wall Street being oppressed by American aristocrats.
The u.s. stock market is down because they don't want to see one black man OG Reggie B win at the game. Now go figure that you don't have to take my word for it, ask somebody in the know. I,m Currently in the stock TQQQ at $70.00 keep an eye on that number and see how long it takes to get back there. I've been in it since 01/01/2022
Racism is Very much alive and active in America's stockmarket, therefore my brothers and sisters of colors and different nations beware.. ..
by far the best explanation of bonds I've seen
The voice of wisdom in a crazy world!
Thanks it help me to revise my concept of CFA Fixed Income
Where do I go to track the yield curves? What’s the most reliable site? Thank you.
Excellent explanation!! Thanks!
A fantastic explanation, aided with great charts. Another great video Brandon and Co.
Awesome graphics in this one dude! So good!
Helpline 📲 👆👆
Thanking you for a great video and the explanations given in layman's terms!!
••••
Great explanation!
Really interesting from Truist Chart.
Can you tell me in simple words should i invest in Market or stay away from it?
The new studio, quality videos and great content keeps this channel moving forward with strong growth! #newmoney
Excellent video. Thank you.
Priceless 🔥 Best explanation for the 2-10 bonds I have heard!
Great Video Brandon.
I thought the research around the limitations section was particularly helpful. To be honest, to this date I've just ignored it based on the "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy while others are fearful" quote but its nice to know that there is further justification as to why this simply may not be an issue at all and more media plastering the doom and gloom clickbait all over their websites.
Mate, great video on bonds. Everyone is talking about stocks, however barely anyone is actually connecting them to bonds. MUCH APPRCIATED!
I wonder if there’s any confounding variables with this indicator for instance if the media covers it as a strong recession indicator it may cause a behavioral change for investors towards long term security.
Yield curve = sentiment. Compare it with a market liquidity indicator, commodity basket and dollar index and you get the clearest picture of the economy
Easy explanation loved it.
Helpline 📲 👆👆
Very clear explanation thanks
Helpline 📲 👆👆
Don’t focus on Macro….just focus on the business…Warren Buffett. But great video loved it.
Almost every country has huge amounts of public debt, so that itself isn't a good sign for the world. So we must always be prepared for recessions, market crash etc 😎😎😎
Love the video and also love your t-shirt. Happy to chat with you when you have time as I am involved with PAFC.
haha really? what do you do Fraser?
Send me an email aussiewealthcreation@gmail.com
I'm bit late to this party, but why long term bond yield goes down(price goes up) when interest rates go up?
When interest rate goes up old bond demand should go down, as new bonds get higher coupon(interest) rates, hence old bond price should go down and increases the yield, isnt it?
This is a brilliant video.. you should take econ courses
It’s actually 10-year Treasury vs. Federal Funds target and it’s one 10 leading indicators. Check out the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and it’s published by the Conference Board. You won’t get this from TH-cam.
Helpline 📲 👆👆
I've been looking for this explanation. Thank you
For a newbie like me this was incredibly informative. Thank you!
Excellent explanation. You should do another explanation video on Japan (specifically around Charlie Munger's comments in Phil Town's recent video: refer 5-6 minute mark)
Well explained.
Awesome video and graphics very informative!
Great educational video. Thank you!
Really helpful stuff. Thank you
Helpline 📲 👆👆
content and presentation are getting better with every video. thanks keep it up
⬆️Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated 👍 feel free to message me directly. Text for questions, investment guide and tip..⬆️⬆️..
Shocked by the video, from the explanation to the edition. Loved the retro vibes.
Fantastic video Brandon - wonderful explanation ….. but the Power are zip and 5 - what’s happening to Hinkley and the boys 😂
Haha i know right... :'(
The Power yield curve is currently inverted.
@@AndrewSmith-cd5zf 😂😂😂
Excellent video
Nice shirt bro
Lmao I lost it when you got Biden fanning out money😂😂
Amazing graphic transitions. Very engaging. Very informative too
Thanks for teaching
This one will work.
Great animations.
Helpline 📲 👆👆
How many recessions did it predict that didn’t occur?
Helpline 📲 👆👆
Quantitative easing has to be considered
Very good content
Great video, thank you! Have you seen any data on how often a ‘sustained’ inversion is observed, yet a recession does not occur?
Wallstreet yield curve inversion ;)
They want your money
If you make a chart on which x axes represents number of people eaten by a shark and y axes represents number of icecream cones sold you can see a relation between them. Charts and unexplained data cannot be evidence of recession. The fact that it happened in past doesn't mean it will happen in the future.
The fact that the sun "came up" today doesn't mean it will "come up" tomorrow
@@LBizKid04 Good somone still reads Hume😊
Love the production! Thank you! God Bless.
⬆️Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated 👍 feel free to message me directly. Text for questions, investment guide and tip..⬆️⬆️..
Excellent video, great explaination!
Loving your new stage. I guess you're more a Buffet than a Munger fan?
Please explain the Port t-shirt?
@New Money thank you so much mate
Top notch job on this. Still don't find bonds a great investment right now, but that, I am sure, will change with time!
But it just got un-inverted
Very clear explanation. Thank you.
CNBC is not going to warn you of a recession take it as a grain of salt
did the yield curve invert when covid hit as well? that was only a 2 month downturn after which things shot up
⬆️Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated 👍 feel free to message me directly. Text for questions, investment guide and tip..⬆️⬆️..
great vid thanks
With interest rates almost zero a yield curve inversion does not mean a thing.
I don’t know how something that can take as long as two years can possibly be called a predictor. In that case you might as well call leap years a predictor of recession.
Someone told me that actually, the inverted curve has predicted 50 of the last 6 recessions...exactly how many times has it inverted and then we DID NOT then have a recession?
Top quality video. Thank you!
Amazing explanation man !!
thank you for explaining it beautifully👍
finally understood the concept ✌️
You previously had an intro at the beginning of your videos that was pretty annoying with a load music. Thank you for deciding not to use it anymore. Your videos look much more professional now.
Very informative, as always. Thank you!
⬆️Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated 👍 feel free to message me directly. Text for questions, investment guide and tip..⬆️⬆️..
Thanks for sharing! 👍🏻
Feels like you have not applies lut on your video