You mentioned succeding in avoiding recession in 1995 by cutting interest rates, but that time there was no invertion below 0 and uninvertion above 0 of 10yo/2yo bonds yield curve
As long as traders keep buying puts hand and fist the rally will continue. Only dipping briefly to look weak and thus sell more puts. The market doesn't care about fundamentals anymore. Statistically it always goes up, and fast
The problem with the FED is their absurd tradition of moving the interest rate by baby-steps. This cut should have been a 2% or 3% cut, not a 0.5% cut. I'm an electronics engineer specialized in machine controls and motor controls, PID's, etc. It is absurd to limit the delta or the speed in the corrective output of any control system. It is downright stupid. Imagine you have a plane, or a first stage of a rocket that must land on a barge in the ocean. The moment you detect the vehicle turning in an unwanted direction you direct the ailerons or thrust-vectoring controls to compensate. The reaction speed is as high as is physically possible. Slowing down the speed of aileron angle or vectored thrust direction would end in disaster. The same thing ought to be true of interest rate: The moment inflation goes up, interest rate should jump immediately to whatever value is needed to bring it down. The moment deflation makes even a faint appearance, interest rate should plunge like there's no tomorrow. This business of changing interest rate by 25 or 50 basis points at a time is a dumb and irrational tradition that keeps perpetuating these cycles of growth to inflation to rising interest rate, to inversion to verticalization to deflation to recession and back to growth. Faster corrections of interest rate could eliminate this whole stupid drama.
Yes, stock valuations are high. There is some thought that stocks, gold, and Bitcoin have been driven by global liquidity, since the major central banks started QE in 2008. Liquidity has a four-year cycle, coinciding with the government debt refinance cycle, the business cycle, the Presidential election cycle, and the Bitcoin halving cycle. In any event, Mark Moss and Raoul Pal on TH-cam expect assets to reach peak values due to the liquidity cycle around mid 2025. Perhaps stocks will in fact hold up till then.
My concern is where we will begin to see the effect of these cuts, is housing going to follow suit? I missed out on my dream home during the pandemic, I am now all eyes and ears for a further decline in mortgage rates.
In my opinion moves in market have to be precise at times like this, the US economy is already putting pressure on everyone’s pockets so moves have to be thought with precision. Move wisely
Fed is actually choosing the size of a melt up before the crash. The bigger the cut, the bigger the meltup, the bigger the drop. Either way, it's going to be a hard landing.
🤔 It will be ultimately very difficult to predict an equity rout, and an associated recession, especially since the pandemic would have been an historic recession that was almost entirely mitigated by an immense liquidity push. The indicator I was watching at the time was the Gold/Silver ratio, which saw an unprecedented high, meaning there should have been a howling recession like never before, but also indicates a massive push into precious metals as the gold/silver ratio is set to decline to historic lows after the historic high.
Dude some of your videos I hate because it’s not what I want to hear, some of them I love because it is, but they’re always very insightful. Keep going!
I've been an investor in Apple because I strongly believe in the company. I've always believed in the stock, but now I don't know whether to re-distribute my portfolio and put some money in Nvidia. especially now that we are experiencing a market correction.
You forgot about indicator wich FED is following, 2-year bonds. They start falling rapidly and where 2-year is going, FED is going with cuts. Check history of that movements. 👍
what would are some stocks, etf, or assets to buy that typically preform well during recessions. Im talking about risky trades to take, i would like to allocate 5% of my portfolio for a few yolo trades.
The only reason why the economy is doing relatively well is government and consumer debt. The gov debt is currently 35 trillion (that’s a huge issue and us is approaching point of no return soon) and while it’s proven to boost the economy the gov can’t issue debt forever
So if we avoid a recession, there won’t be any deflation, so prices will remain elevated. If you add stagnant wages into the mix, what the hell is the benefitsof that combination?
The reason the market kept moving up despite the bad conditions was because the rates have been held at the same level for some time now. Anytime the rates remain flat no matter if its high or low, the market will move upwards.
How much was US debt and debt service costs in 1995-96? Very different scenario. It all comes down to one thing: how much longer can the US run multi trillion annual deficits?
A whopping 50% of mortgages come due for renewal 2025-26... western central banks are already lowering their prime to head off what they know will happen with the rate of defaults. Expect it lowered to below 2-1/2% by late 2025
Isn’t the K-shape you see in your PE vs consumer sentiment just a manifestation of the growing wealth gap? Wealthier, benefiting from pandemic-triggered corporate greed, are still able to pump money to the stock market while the rest struggle.
Since money is no longer backed by gold and money gets printed at an astonishing rate, this is causing more and more inflation. So it's a double ended sawed lift rates to quick and you've just increased inflation and don't lift the rates recessions occur. The whole point of it is to slow the economy and that means government spending which means a down turn in government infrastructure projects and in essence downturn in jobs.
thats the price of diluting the currency to far you cant raise intrest rates high enaugh long enaugh before pain kicks in...the fact that they cant raise the savings intrest rates above inflation says everything you need to know......but eventualy they will have no choise...either default.....lost decade(best option)....or sacrifice the usd...
Nothing is irreparabel. Economy and stock market are going up and down. Completely normal. Just put 30% cash aside and wait for the right moment like Buffett.
Rates are going to 0 in next 6 months. Bitcoin to 300k and SPX to 10k. You have to go full leverage all- in if you want to survive the next round of inflation.
• Capital requirements for large banks The Federal Reserve Board announced final individual capital requirements for large banks that went into effect on October 1, 2024. These requirements are based on the results of the Board's stress test, which assesses capital needs in a forward-looking and risk-sensitive way.
I often wonder if the economies of the rich and the poor have become completely detached from each other. Obviously the fortunes of the bottom 2% are irrelevant. Obviously the decisions of the top 2% make things change. I wonder of there is a growing number of irrelevant fortunes. How big is the bottom? Does it matter much anymore when unemployment goes up? Many poor might be too poor when they are working, and still poor when they are unemployed. How many poor, are so poor that they cant participate in good times or bad?
What are you talking about? The prices of everything rose 30-50% due to super low interest rates. Higher Interest rates have nothing to do with the current cumulative inflation. They are what stopped the madness not what started it. Gaslight much?
10% increase in svc price, change of YT channel name, can't tell us why -NDA?, deserved channel subs growth... You either are in a partnership divorce or got acquired (congrats!). Let's hope you stay the course for us plebs to benefit from your wisdom.
1) Uninversion of the yield curve 2) Sahm rule 3) Weak global economy 4) gold to copper 5) housing sector 6) transportation
Diesel futures
7) Manufacturering PMI 8) Consumer expenditure
What's the gold to copper?
Care to elaborate on your 6 points?
7) Year over year change in money supply is negative. Only happened 4 times in history. Guess what happened all 4 times?
Low rates were the problem. Cheap easy money lead to out of control government and corporate spending.
6:07 Didn't you in previous vids say you expected a recession by Q4 this year? What changed your mind that you pushed it to mid 2025?
The animated graphs in sync with the voiceover from Game of Trades is always amazing!
the damage done is from the period of 0% rates
People had no money then and still don't now.
0% inflation is coming back.
Well the boomers wanted their assets inflated
The damage is done 1913..
The fed is doing what the financial markets want. They are choosing inflation over recession.
Good
Now we'll have both
Inflation was never there.
Covid stimulus created artificial Inflation.
Where is higher inflation going to come from, absent more stimmy checks and PPP fraud? Consumers are tapped out.
Contrary to popular belief, Inflation is like 1% right now... They are getting ahead of future recession and deflation.
Just keep the dam thing at 4.5% for 10 years.
WE should note, however, that the 10 year minus 2 year did not go below zero between 1995-6.
You mentioned succeding in avoiding recession in 1995 by cutting interest rates, but that time there was no invertion below 0 and uninvertion above 0 of 10yo/2yo bonds yield curve
As long as traders keep buying puts hand and fist the rally will continue. Only dipping briefly to look weak and thus sell more puts. The market doesn't care about fundamentals anymore. Statistically it always goes up, and fast
guys got the ol cease and desist from George RR Martin lol
End the Fed, repel the dollar to gold. Give Congress back the power of the mint. End deficit spending. End ALL entitlements. Eliminate income taxes.
"Drive it til the wheels fall off" - US Treasury
You mean the Fed. The Treasury is just a glorified advisory panel for our monetary policy at this point.
Can you provide any insight into the AUS economy?
Many stocks are still cheap, GOOGL, BMY, FPE, BTI. The growth is just started.
Love that you’re keeping the theme of GoT. Bank of Bravos 🙌🏻
Damage is not due to high interest rates. It's due to the cheap money before that. Thumbs down for that.
The problem with the FED is their absurd tradition of moving the interest rate by baby-steps. This cut should have been a 2% or 3% cut, not a 0.5% cut. I'm an electronics engineer specialized in machine controls and motor controls, PID's, etc. It is absurd to limit the delta or the speed in the corrective output of any control system. It is downright stupid. Imagine you have a plane, or a first stage of a rocket that must land on a barge in the ocean. The moment you detect the vehicle turning in an unwanted direction you direct the ailerons or thrust-vectoring controls to compensate. The reaction speed is as high as is physically possible. Slowing down the speed of aileron angle or vectored thrust direction would end in disaster. The same thing ought to be true of interest rate: The moment inflation goes up, interest rate should jump immediately to whatever value is needed to bring it down. The moment deflation makes even a faint appearance, interest rate should plunge like there's no tomorrow. This business of changing interest rate by 25 or 50 basis points at a time is a dumb and irrational tradition that keeps perpetuating these cycles of growth to inflation to rising interest rate, to inversion to verticalization to deflation to recession and back to growth. Faster corrections of interest rate could eliminate this whole stupid drama.
Stock market crash 20-30% coming in early 2025, mostly February to April . I’m going to buy the dip for sure.
Consumer sentiment is down but they buy nevertheless.
They'll buy themselves into bankruptcy
In the uk at least those who buy are those who receive benefits from the government and drug dealers.
Yes, stock valuations are high. There is some thought that stocks, gold, and Bitcoin have been driven by global liquidity, since the major central banks started QE in 2008. Liquidity has a four-year cycle, coinciding with the government debt refinance cycle, the business cycle, the Presidential election cycle, and the Bitcoin halving cycle. In any event, Mark Moss and Raoul Pal on TH-cam expect assets to reach peak values due to the liquidity cycle around mid 2025. Perhaps stocks will in fact hold up till then.
No way the Fed would let the market correct 2 months before the election. They gotta do their part for the Ds.
Is due to the lack of liquidity in the markets which makes the rally superficial? Has volume decreased?
My concern is where we will begin to see the effect of these cuts, is housing going to follow suit? I missed out on my dream home during the pandemic, I am now all eyes and ears for a further decline in mortgage rates.
1990 cut was also too late. Lots of builders went bust
In my opinion moves in market have to be precise at times like this, the US economy is already putting pressure on everyone’s pockets so moves have to be thought with precision. Move wisely
Fed is actually choosing the size of a melt up before the crash.
The bigger the cut, the bigger the meltup, the bigger the drop.
Either way, it's going to be a hard landing.
🤔 It will be ultimately very difficult to predict an equity rout, and an associated recession, especially since the pandemic would have been an historic recession that was almost entirely mitigated by an immense liquidity push.
The indicator I was watching at the time was the Gold/Silver ratio, which saw an unprecedented high, meaning there should have been a howling recession like never before, but also indicates a massive push into precious metals as the gold/silver ratio is set to decline to historic lows after the historic high.
Seriously, what the hell is the problem with having a recession? Sure as hell beats having more of this inflation.
Dude some of your videos I hate because it’s not what I want to hear, some of them I love because it is, but they’re always very insightful. Keep going!
Long term 6-months unemployment rate also rising substantially 😢
Cuts to the point. Well animated graphs.
Every graph in $ comparing the last 50yrs or so should be adjusted to the total monetary supply at that given point in time.
Low rates benefit corporations way more over individuals than higher interest rates. Fed should hold rates at 3% or so.
I've been an investor in Apple because I strongly believe in the company. I've always believed in the stock, but now I don't know whether to re-distribute my portfolio and put some money in Nvidia. especially now that we are experiencing a market correction.
You forgot about indicator wich FED is following, 2-year bonds. They start falling rapidly and where 2-year is going, FED is going with cuts. Check history of that movements. 👍
what would are some stocks, etf, or assets to buy that typically preform well during recessions. Im talking about risky trades to take, i would like to allocate 5% of my portfolio for a few yolo trades.
Should we still buy gold ?
The only reason why the economy is doing relatively well is government and consumer debt. The gov debt is currently 35 trillion (that’s a huge issue and us is approaching point of no return soon) and while it’s proven to boost the economy the gov can’t issue debt forever
Many financial companies after rate cut went up and then down now!😮
Does shillers P/E represent only 7 stocks like Microsoft and google? I think a lot of other PEs are very low prob majority of the market
So if we avoid a recession, there won’t be any deflation, so prices will remain elevated. If you add stagnant wages into the mix, what the hell is the benefitsof that combination?
The reason the market kept moving up despite the bad conditions was because the rates have been held at the same level for some time now. Anytime the rates remain flat no matter if its high or low, the market will move upwards.
감사합니다~
How much was US debt and debt service costs in 1995-96? Very different scenario. It all comes down to one thing: how much longer can the US run multi trillion annual deficits?
While the name change is great; please, please fix the enormous kerning issue between the A and V in your new Bravos research logotype.
It's gonna keep going up because I'm absolutely loaded in puts until end of November. ONLY 20 call contracts.
only the next few months with unemployment numbers will tell us the timing
just buy gold.
Low rates for too long has devalued the dollar and created a massive bubble of over valued stocks
A whopping 50% of mortgages come due for renewal 2025-26... western central banks are already lowering their prime to head off what they know will happen with the rate of defaults. Expect it lowered to below 2-1/2% by late 2025
Isn’t the K-shape you see in your PE vs consumer sentiment just a manifestation of the growing wealth gap? Wealthier, benefiting from pandemic-triggered corporate greed, are still able to pump money to the stock market while the rest struggle.
Since money is no longer backed by gold and money gets printed at an astonishing rate, this is causing more and more inflation. So it's a double ended sawed lift rates to quick and you've just increased inflation and don't lift the rates recessions occur. The whole point of it is to slow the economy and that means government spending which means a down turn in government infrastructure projects and in essence downturn in jobs.
"Game of Trades" was pretty cool. "Brovos Research" is meh...
I think consumer sentiment is driven by employment while the stock market is driven by investor psychology and liquidity.
I can't fathom how people don't believe we are in a recession we have been in a recession we will continue to be in a recession
While we are talking about the irreversible , markets keep going up 😂
Game of trades was a better name
thats the price of diluting the currency to far you cant raise intrest rates high enaugh long enaugh before pain kicks in...the fact that they cant raise the savings intrest rates above inflation says everything you need to know......but eventualy they will have no choise...either default.....lost decade(best option)....or sacrifice the usd...
The Soviet Union understood there would be a lag between the implementation of a policy & the ability to observe these changes.
Nothing is irreparabel. Economy and stock market are going up and down. Completely normal. Just put 30% cash aside and wait for the right moment like Buffett.
So, did Johnny Bravo purchase Game of Trades?
Where does I can get these type of info in India?
Get everyone in big debt raise interest rates to place where everyone is just under water and things are barely affordable. Perfect 🤩
Probably most of you guys sitting with cash 😅😅
Lord help us
Are you the dancing master now? The first sword of Bravos?
Rates are going to 0 in next 6 months. Bitcoin to 300k and SPX to 10k. You have to go full leverage all- in if you want to survive the next round of inflation.
Great stuff !!!!!
I've been watching Game of Trades since day ONE. Sad to see you retiring
Yeah, you do not seek or welcome labor market cooling. But that's what you gonna get.
Dax is going up and up
Recession won't come until mid 2025. Market is super bullish until the end of the year!
• Capital requirements for large banks The Federal Reserve Board announced final individual capital requirements for large banks that went into effect on October 1, 2024. These requirements are based on the results of the Board's stress test, which assesses capital needs in a forward-looking and risk-sensitive way.
If they keep dropping that interest rate, Bitcoin will moon with the S&P.
One word…. Hyperinflation.
I often wonder if the economies of the rich and the poor have become completely detached from each other. Obviously the fortunes of the bottom 2% are irrelevant. Obviously the decisions of the top 2% make things change.
I wonder of there is a growing number of irrelevant fortunes. How big is the bottom?
Does it matter much anymore when unemployment goes up? Many poor might be too poor when they are working, and still poor when they are unemployed.
How many poor, are so poor that they cant participate in good times or bad?
My mortgage is exactly 2200
Wall Street has blinders on!
Looks like tlt and tmf on sale last couple days
Very nice
damn, lawsuit eh?
Gold miners almost all rime low...
Bravo !
Put the new TH-cam channel in the pinned comments
Recession is coming without a doubt, no one knows when but it’s unavoidable. They kicked the can for way too long already.
Yeah, the FED has just started the recession by lowering interest rates now!😂
Game of thrones trademark on the name
Trump was bad for the economy.
I don’t know, I was able to afford to buy a house and a car. Now I have to take out small loans to pay for food
What are you talking about? The prices of everything rose 30-50% due to super low interest rates. Higher Interest rates have nothing to do with the current cumulative inflation. They are what stopped the madness not what started it. Gaslight much?
Terrible name switch
Game of trades name gone!.
Why you changing your name? Sounds a bit fishy to me.
Forever bull
bull market soon
Resushn
Jerome powell!.
Crash?😂 Bot NVDA, see you in Monaco
6:04 "between now and mid 2025", shouldn't it be 2026 to account for the 14-18 month lag?
10% increase in svc price, change of YT channel name, can't tell us why -NDA?, deserved channel subs growth...
You either are in a partnership divorce or got acquired (congrats!). Let's hope you stay the course for us plebs to benefit from your wisdom.