Putin's closest ally - Could Belarus successfully invade Ukraine (probably not)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ค. 2024
- Before February 24th, there probably weren't many Western commentators that would have bet on a post-soviet state of 9 million people taking on a significant strategic role in deciding the fate of Ukraine and European security. But these are strange times, and following a call in the comments of a previous video, I've decided to look at the current (and potential future) role of Belarus in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Since Russian troops advanced into Ukraine from Belarusian territory in February, speculation has been rife that Belarusian dictator Lukashenko would send his own troops into battle alongside his Russian allies. Practically ever week brings a new series of articles announcing new mobilisation efforts or exercises in Belarus, and a heighted threat to Ukraine's Northern border.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Timestamps:
00:00 -- Opening Words
00:47 -- What am I covering?
01:37 -- How did we get here?
01:52 -- History
06:24 -- Belarus today
08:27 -- Europe's "Last Dictator"
09:53 -- Lukashenko's hold is not complete
14:22 -- Belariusian involvement
15:59 -- The Maybe Invasion
18:26 -- Hunting for a Casus Belli
20:47 -- The Belariusian Army
21:01 -- The "Good": A lot of metal
24:01 -- The "Oh...": Manpower
28:36 -- Intervention scenario
29:00 -- To Kyiv and victory
29:56 -- Fool me twice...
32:08 -- Serving the artery
33:20 -- Cutting off the hand
37:08 -- A grinding distraction
38:19 -- The question is why?
39:16 -- Why the Hesitation?
39:40 -- Internal Stability
46:36 -- The thing about stability
47:18 -- The economy
49:12 -- NATO response
51:09 -- What is there to gain?
53:38 -- The brief warning: "Crap" doesn't mean harmless
55:43 -- Conclusions
56:57 -- Channel Update
Sources:
Example of media coverage around the possibility of Belarus entering the war:
www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3...
theconversation.com/ukraine-w...
The "Colonel thing" - one example of reporting on this
www.sb.by/en/lukashenko-putin...
Chatham House Survey:
drive.google.com/file/d/12uAi...
Disclaimers and Caveats:
At one point I say "Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv" in reference to cities that are along the "Belarusian front." That's just force of habit from describing cities threatened during the early phase of the war. It would be more accurate to say that Kyiv and Chernihiv are on the Belarusian facing front, Sumy obviously isn't.
I gloss over the importance of Belarus' military industry - Russia is in fact dependent on Belarus for some critical inputs into some of its most sensitive military hardware.
I want to stress again that I have nothing against the people of Belarus - this video is merely an attempt to illustrate the weaknesses the Belarusian military would have to overcome to be genuinely effective in an offensive operation
The section on potential NATO responses should be taken as illustrative, and not a prediction that NATO would resort to any particular policy response or 'harassment' tactics in the event of a Belarusian offensive. It is instead intended to illustrate the vulnerability of the plan to potential escalatory (or debatably escalatory) responses.
Thanks to the Patrons who sent message requests for this one or the commenters who asked for me to cover this (slightly more niche) topic. While it seems like an obvious enough question - it's been playing regularly in the media since February - it isn't something we've had a chance to look at on this channel, so it was good to get a chance to stop and talk about it.
Seems obvious but dictators usually aren't known for grounded rationality. If lukashenko starts to believe his own bull like Poutine it could lead to something spicy.
I doubt it but lukashenko like Poutine can be a bit of a wild card. I wouldn't have expected Poutine to blitz for Kyiv over a massive front during the mud season in Ukraine but here we are. Life is strange.
Putin would have a hard time convincing any of the CSTO heads of state that he's actually under attack by NATO. The CSTO wasn't designed to deter NATO it was designed to deter China because the majority of its member states are in the Far East. I doubt any of the former Soviet Republics would be in a rush to provide cannon fodder for Putin. He would also have a hard time convincing them of his benevolent leadership when he has separatist enclaves that he has held like a dagger to their throats since the fall of the Soviet Block.
Putin has annexed Crimea, Donbas, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Chechnya. Do you know what all of these countries have in common? These countries were part of the CSTO and Putin GUARANTEED their borders and their independence only to invade them later on behalf of Russian separatists. CSTO countries have invaded each other on Putin's behalf so you can easily understand why the CSTO doesn't want to get involved in Ukraine on Putin's behalf. The same separatists who have repeatedly interfered in their internal affairs and the recurring wars that Putin has waged on those separatists' behalf for the last 30 years.
Lukashenko was an early competitor of Putin and he still has ambitions of controlling Russia so he has a vested interest in Putin's failure. The transport unions in Belarus also have a history of crippling strikes against their own government so when Putin relied on them to provide logistics for his abortive first attempt at invading Ukraine they staged silent strikes and crippled Russia's logistics on the Northern Front. There's little reason to believe these same unions wouldn't strike openly if Belarus decided to join the war.
23:23 SU-25K is Sukhoi. Not Mig
I really enjoyed this video, thank you for providing an historical perspective on Belarus,
Yet another outstanding piece. Congratulations! Thank you for maintaining a high quality standard. You often mention in your videos what you don’t do professionally and thats fine. Whatever it is that you do for a living, I sincerely hope that your employer / clients / etc. fully leverage your significant talents, the obvious passion, wholistic thinking skills, and the attention to detail you display. Meanwhile, I’ll do my part on Patreon.
So, I'm Belarusian.
This video is extremely well-made, and there are some points I'd like to add to.
Since the beginning of the war, I have NEVER seen even one young man suited for warfare supporting Russia in war. Of course that's my information bubble, I don't really talk to lukashenka's supporters, but still. The common mood among Belarusians is generally dry nihilistic humour and mocking Russia. We don't think about being dragged into the war, because this seems very unlikely.
I have a few friends in the military faculty of our university, and they say that NOTHING has changed since the beginning of the war. They still purchase their uniforms with their own money, they still sing "patriotic" (soviet) songs instead of learning tactics, and they still fire 6 bullets total. They are our future officers yet they fired 6 bullets in their whole life. And that's been happening for 20+ years. The army is no different, its officials forbid hitting the targets during training (because the targets are expensive and no one wants to bother replacing them). You are punished for hitting a target. Let that sink in.
And also, lukashenka tried to create a "people's militia" multiple times, and no one wanted to participate. There is so little people supporting the regime, that Lukashenka's inner circle (lukashenka's press-secretary Eismont and the national hockey federation chairman Baskov, for example) had to raid neighbourhoods to cut red-and-white ribbons off of the fence. That's the extent of his absurd low support. And I don't think there will be mant more people eagerly joining the army to die in Ukraine.
Thanks for the info. Very interesting.
We used paper with printed circles and lines for points? It's not expensive, but I can understand the laziness.
interesting points. On an unrelated note, I am very curious as an American, to understand how and why your English writing and language and grammar skills and word choices are just as good or even better than many regular American citizens’. Very cool!
Жыве вечна!
@@nozrep start of the third section, he names 'his' university. That could be your answer
Lets be real, Belarus couldn't even invade Belarus.
[John Oliver voice] Because that's not Belarus... [Picture changes abruptly] That's Belarus
HAR HAR HAR!!🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Good one
*spits drink out* level bursts laughing :D
@@FelisImpurrator I love those parts of his show. It's never the country in the picture.
In WW1, people often use the phrase "shackled to a corpse" (attributed to General von Ludendorf) to describe Germany's liability of an ally that they found in the husk that was the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
For me, the lowkey drama of this war in Ukraine is watching Belarus and Russia carefully trying to figure out which one of them is the corpse without getting caught sniffing eachother.
I'm Polish and I can tell you that:
We want strong and INDEPENDENT Ukraine 🇺🇦
Only Ukrainians can decide for Ukraine
Swedish person here agrees!
German person here agrees!
You don’t get to shell your own citizens because they’re are an ethnic minority in your country, and expect no response.
Ukraine began this war in 2014, when they decided - with Washington’s approval no doubt - that it was a good idea to start murdering its Russian ethnic minority en masse.
Sic semper tyrannis.
@@icouce Everything that has been happening in the Donbas for the last 14 years has been carefully prepared by the Russian special services
Thankful for you guys. A proud and honorable bunch.
As a Polish person I feel obligated to answer the annexation of Western Ukraine question. It's true that I used to sometimes see people on the Internet expressing regret of losing Lviv after WW2. But no political party in my memory ever expressed the wish to "do anything about it". I wouldn't be surprised if Korwin-Mikke ever suggested that in the past or in the future, but you can expect anything from him.
Opponents of supporting Ukraine militarily generally try to bring up the topic of Bandera and the massacres and how donating old equipment dulls the Polish military potential in case of a potential Russian invasion, not suggest retaking the territories of Western Ukraine. Reportedly, in 2014 the Russian government did propose Poland and other neighbouring countries the plan to partition Ukraine. They were pretty much laughed out of the room.
Guy, in your contry, like in all present-day countries, there's resurrection of rightists and they are gaining power. You really trying to say that fans of Pilsudskij won't want to change the territorial integrity of just a few European countries?
Poland is the looser in the old early-capitalistic time of competition to the moscow's state. Former lost and lost its independency, latter won and prooved it's anyhow wothness as an empire. And now there's observable fraction of Poland's politics that would like to make it vice-versa.
@@worldoftancraft Pilsudski wanted a ukrainian state to exist
isn't Korwin-Mikke the far-right politician who held an anime femboy in his arms?
Wow, russia proposing to split up a country to another country that has been split up multiple times in its past, usually by Russia itself. That's a certified "pro gamer move"
@@worldoftancraft Returning Lviv to Poland is more like a right wing meme, like returning Prussia to Germany, and nothing else. There is no real political movement to actually do it. Stop spewing this Russian nonsense that is clearly voiced to sow doubt and division between Ukraine and Poland.
"a GDP the size of Montana and an annual military budget a third the size of Burger Kings annual revenue"
Lol that was savage.
Oh. Savage? So your beloved poor Ukraine is also a savage case either?
What a pite. A country is not a Civilized Post-Colonial state that was investing in itself to inflate the prices of its labour, while deflating prices of soobhoomans from the other side of the globe.
But tell me that this all is due to «Dimokraci».
It was neoliberal. Nonsense. North Korea has a pretty crap GDP but that simply does not reflect their notary capability.
It's especially bad considering Montana has 10% of the population of Belarus.
@@crhu319 Is North Korea's capabilities to perform certain legal formalities and draw up or certify contracts relevant to this discussion? I'm sure the notaries in North Korea are very nice, but what does that have to do with their GDP?
@@crhu319 North korea has soviet equipment, and has to steal cars for their government officials. I’m pretty sure their crap GDP does reflect their capability
I really appreciate your comments on how a poor quality military force will cause death and destruction even if they don't achieve thier goals. This is very important to remember and I think a lot of "military enthusiasts" forget this.
I totally agree. The warning was spot on and well thought out and needs to be more frequently considered.
I don’t think it’s “forgetting” so much as unspoken. All wars are going to cause death and destruction. But only at the point where that death and destruction outweighs goals does it start to factor into the risk-benefit analysis. North Korea exists because Seoul is within artillery range.
Even if their military budget, "is about 1/3 of Burger King's annual revenue," LOL!
My heart breaks for my Belarusian brothers and sisters, who yearn for liberty. Stay strong, you are not your government.
Obligatory comment from a Belarusian:
From a history perspective: your summary of Belarusian history is better than 90% of English language videos on this topic. Good job! The only thing I would add is that Russification of Belarusians was often quite violent: huge percent of our intellectuals were killed in Stalinist purges in the 1930s. After the war, as the country urbanised, Belarusian-speaking peasant would move to predominantly Russian-speaking cities and consequently get Russified. Lukashenka continued this policy, that is one of the reasons he is useful to Russians. They literally gave him cheap oil and gas in exchange for continued domination of Russian language and culture in Belarus. Obviously, a large part of anti-Lukashenka demographic is pro-Belarus culture and very sympathetic towards Ukrainians, who were in a very similar situation in Soviet times.
On why Lukashenka showed the maps and said all this stuff about alleged Ukrainians stuff. His main motivation was to retrospectively justify allowing Russian troops to use Belarusian territory and infrastructure to attack Ukraine. Although legally Belarus is an aggressor country, Lukashenka really wants to convince Belarusians, Ukrainians and the West otherwise and claim that somehow it was a defensive action. At the same time, he keeps insisting, that Belarusian army will only protect Russian's back from NATO attack. Which is of course bullshit, but Luka is being Luka.
However the central question is: how much control Lukashenka has over Belarus and its military and for how much longer. Yes, it is risky for Putin to try to remove him now, but then it was also risky to start a war with Ukraine... So although logically, it doesn't make sense for Belarus to get involved in Ukraine now, we are not dealing with completely rational people here, or at least their rationale is totally bonkers.
And one small linguistic nitpick: the correct adjective for Belarus is Belarusian (with one s).
Once again - thank you for your work!
Great insight, thank you.
Thank you for this clarification, because I was trying to understand why a Belarusian political refugee (not true in the case of that one) from the East of Belarus told me a decade ago that Belarusians are basically the same as Russians and do speak Russian instead of Belarusian and do watch Russian television, whereas now we see this massive opposition to the war in Ukraine, despite all Russia's propaganda efforts.
How could it be that Russian propaganda failed so heavily in a country that was already so Russified?
@@pierresaelen3097 "Massive opposition" that long time ago escape from Belarus after getting small support from people, lmao.
@@user-di7ds5nk3o yeah, support was "so small" that Putin almost pissed his pants and sent his Rosgvardia immediately to beat up millions of Belarusian protestors who flooded Minsk streets against Lukashenka puppet regime, controlled by Russia. 🤡🤡🤡
Even Belarus people quietly hate fascist Russia and Putin.
@@pierresaelen3097 people who are anti-Lukashenka were not necessarily anti-Russian. According to the surveys, Lukashenko has around 25% support, while up to 45% of the population is pro-Russian. Although Putin's support for Lukashenko undermines pro-Russian feelings of anti-Luka people.
But yes, Russian propaganda is not (thank God!) as effective in Belarus as in Russia. There are many reasons for it. Belarusians generally have much more personal links with EU countries, first of all Poland and Lithuania than Russians. I mean Minsk is 3 hour long train ride from Vilnius, and a lot of people were travelling to EU regularly, as truck drivers, tourists or students.
Secondly, Russian propaganda is directed at Russians. Belarusians (even pro-Russian ones) are not really interested in restoring empire, starting wars, fighting with the West etc. Despite heavy Russification, we still have different mentality and historic memory. For instance ALL of Belarus was occupied by Nazis in WWII for three full years, while only parts of Russia were occupied.
Finally, Belarusians lost trust in TV long time ago - Belarusian propaganda is much more stupid than Russian, so I guess Belarusians received a kind of propaganda vaccine.
So I wouldn't say Russian propaganda failed in Belarus - we still have a lot of people supporting Russia, but it was not as effective for abovementioned reasons.
Hey, a Pole here. Even though there are some ongoing roumors regarding some kind of confederation or union between Poland and Ukraine, - no. Polish Army does not want to cross Ukraine border. Even if im wrong - why would we give them 500 tanks before we do it, and charge with 300 remaining ones? Too much potato vodka, Luka...
And I give a massive thumbs up to the Polish people for taking in as many Ukrainian refugees as possible. All countries should have a friendly neighbor like Poland.
Just recently Zelensky signed the law that granted Polish citizens additional rights in Ukraine, and, considering Poland did the same on the start of this invasion and opened the borders completely - we already have some kind of confederation. I even saw some historians comparing it to the Union of Krewo.
@@oleksandr1703 No idea what Krewo is. Is that a good thing?
@@oleksandr1703 And this action has led to the interpretation of that in the russian TV as a "polish colonization" and Zelensky selling the lands of Ukrainians to the Poles.
But that's just a good old "divide et impera".
"Fight Ukrainians because the Poles want to colonize your lands!" - "'Fight Poles because all of the Ukrainians are nationalists and fascists and they want to massacre you!"
@@gigacanno750 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Krewo
"In a strict sense, the Union of Krewo or Act of Krėva (also spelled Union of Krevo, Act of Kreva; Belarusian: Крэўская унія, romanized: Kreŭskaja unija; Polish: unia w Krewie; Lithuanian: Krėvos sutartis) comprised a set of prenuptial promises made at Kreva Castle on 14 August 1385 by Jogaila, Grand Duke of Lithuania, in regard to his prospective marriage to the underage reigning Queen Jadwiga of Poland.
Though very limited in scope, the "Union of Krewo", in historiography, often refers not only to the particular document but to events of 1385-1386 as a whole.[1] After the 1385 negotiations, Jogaila converted to Christianity, married Jadwiga, and was crowned King of Poland in 1386.
The union proved a decisive moment in the histories of Poland and Lithuania; it marked the beginning of four centuries of shared history of the two polities. By 1569 the Polish-Lithuanian union had developed into a new state, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which lasted until the Third Partition of Poland in 1795." Click the link for the full story.
Honestly, my favourite part of this video is the warning at the end, which reminds us all that war is not armchair strategy, interesting analysis, rooting for "your guys" and abstract analysis, but primarily a human tragedy.
Belarus never even bothered changing the name of their state security apparatus - it's literally still called the KGB. One would think Lukashenko would at least try to re-boot the image of the most hated part of the old Soviet government, but no, not that guy.
The guy also makes some bizarre statements. I think this one sums his character up the best, "Belarus stood on the edge of an abyss, and I helped her take a step forward."
And on top of all these arguments, there also is the matter of the route of attack.
A Belorussian attack straight into the Pripet Marshes might actually make the VDV its deployment look competent...
We have been hearing rumours about a Belorussian attack for months now. But nobody who suggests this option, ever seems to realise what the borderlands between Belarus and Ukraine are. The terrain is so bad that going via Chernobyl was actually the more reasonable option for the Russians going towards Kyiv. And that already turned out to be quite a "special" operation with terrible logistics.
But so many news articles told me he's going snake down the Polish border and take Lviv. Easy as.
@@PerunAU Not if the polish slingshots have a say in the matter.
@@PerunAU Lukashenko is playing Hoi4 with Putin thinking they can just snake all the Ukrainian VP, too bad this is the NSB version.
You could always just transport the men to one of the existing fronts. The real value of Belarus entering the war is that it provides not insignificant manpower against Ukraine without Russia having to call up reserves or institute a draft.
@@PerunAU Well, many news outlets suddenly found that aside from being expert virologists, they are also military geniuses. 😅
But I have been watching since the early days. These videos really help to home my own understandings even further. But in this case I genuinely have to wonder if such an offensive might already get decided on the tactical level because the Belorussians just won't get through the wetlands. And even if they do, its going to become a logistical disaster in a few months when the autumn rains start. Overall this whole idea really seems to be pushed by people who looked at a map without geographical features or considerations about Belorussian capabilities or motivation.
About Polish position: First politician suggesting any action against Ukr would be very lucky to catch his flight to Moscow before beeing lynched. :)
The question is, what happens after Ukraine has collapsed? Poland and possibly Hungary might find some minority in Galicia or south of the Carpathians to protect.
Those areas were historically part of those nations. Of course, it would be a peace mission, not an invasion! And Russia would tolerate it.
@@10goldfinger This guy just makes it easy XD. The ammount of projection going on is quite telling on how you defend against russia. Place nukes on your border that go off as soon as russia takes a step over the border. Otherwhise they will see an opertunity to invade. Even if the best outcome possible outcome is a reverse dessert storm.
@@10goldfinger there is no viable minority there, the majority of Poles who were lucky enough to survive the war were resettled to what is now western Poland and was German before WW2.. no level-headed Poles want any annexation of Galicja - it simply makes no sense. It could only make sense to the type of people sporting a peculiar 19th century type of psyche and mentality as exemplified by Putin's Russia
@@10goldfinger that sounds like a partition still, and I don’t think Poland would stand for something like that.
Also such a precedent would be disastrous in the long run.
@@10goldfinger partaking in any deal brokered by Russia on unlikely corpse of Ukraine is out of the question and political suicide for anyone who would suggest that in public. There are no "but ifs" here.
I have lived in Montana all of my adult life(I'm 80), and it is hard to believe that a country with a population 9 times larger than Montana, has a similar GDP. It's ability to wage an effective war against Ukraine, seems almost impossible. The only reason it might try, as you hint at, is that it's leader is not rational. However, a man who has remained in power, by hook or crook, for 28 years, is probably not rational, and an irrational leader can cause a great deal of heart ache for his nation.
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It wouldn’t be possible at all if Putin hadn’t ‘inherited’ the military equipment from the old USSR.
While you rightly suggest that a country with 9 times the population of Belarus would have no problem defending itself against, and probably crush, any attempted invasion from that quarter, I wonder if you apply the same relative strength analysis to Ukraine-Russia. Russia has at least 3 times the population, 10 times the guns, and can mobilize an army and other military forces 4 to 6 times that of Ukraine in numbers, and even more than that in terms of firepower. The idea that Ukraine will not lose this war, much less "win," is in such analyses ridiculous.
@LTrotsky 21st Century You need to work on your reading comprehension. He was comparing the population of Montana(1.1 million) with Belarus(9.3 million). Considering the population of Ukraine in 2021 is 43.8 million, it's pretty clear the focus of his comment was on Belarus.
Also, yes, I do believe Ukraine would be in much more dire circumstances if not without foreign military aid, which is why I fully support all my contry's aid of Javelins and Stingers.
i agree that it does seem almost impossible that montana would wage an effective war against Ukraine but i wouldn’t put it past montana with it’s track record
@@michaelthompson7217 What track record aware you referring to?
The biggest thing Belarus can do is be an "army-in-being" : posturing to pin down significant units of the Ukrainian defence forces without ever having to be tested...
Please don't bet your life savings on this posturing coming to fruition. Think of all the Eastern European babushkas and their long memories. Eastern European Governments may say one thing, but the citizens' hearts are not buying it. Luka wanted to help Russia, but there was a lot of local sabotage of Luka's efforts. There is no Pole, Ukrainian nor Belarusian worth his salt that does not hate Russia. They will not lift a finger for Putin. Luka risks rebellion, sabotage, coup or mass desertion should he try "posturing" that you are suggesting.
@@susanlowell4759 Belarus (and Transnistria, to a lesser extent) already doing the "army-in-being" concept. They've tied down at least three brigades of the regular Ukrainian military defending Kiyv and the rear flank of Odessa, as well as countless territorial defence units that could be better used in the South-East. The fact that it would be a bad idea to try to invade, doesn't mean that Ukraine can afford to take the risk that they'll try anyway.
They would end up as an army without fuel or ammo when most of the Belarus supply depots blow up.
Pity they don’t do a reversal and work against Russia.
Regarding the loyalty of Belarussian army - actually, during the last post-election protests, which were considered a near miss for Lukashenka, he has sent most troops to Lithuanian border, away from Minsk, citing some kind of bogus invasion threat stuff. The ones dealing with protesters were basically domestic police units. This kinda tells you something about the level of trust and control he has on the military.
I always enjoy in those videos where he's supposedly lecturing his generals about some strategy or something, and they're just looking at him blankly like he's crazy..
very interesting
Or it suggests he was trying to get everyone to "rally around the flag" by concocting a false threat.
It's always the police that support corrupt governments when the military refuses to.
Yep - I absolutely think Lukashenko is terrified of a revolt against him by his own military. If he actually ordered him soldiers to invade Ukraine, I suspect you'd see more march on Minsk than Ukraine.
"The risk of a whole bunch of Polish-speaking "Ukrainian" units in Lviv if necessary..."
That's one hell of a mental image. I really feel like there would not be a shortage of volunteers for that. Poland has taken a "never again" sort of national/military stance lately.
yeah, i had a good chuckle out of that as well. I imagined it as "Ey Kurwa, don't invade my country, which is Ukraine, if you want to live!"
Ukraine's own little green men, complete with their own unit patch consisting of Hussar wings on a Ukrainian flag
@@seanj4119 Winged knights coming to relieve a city from the Eastern hordes yet again.
And rightly they have. Better than anyone else in Europe, the Polish understand what is at stake here.
Speaking as an American i wish more friends shared the "never again" attitude.
I know this means brinkmanship, and Im not sure i trust our politicians to play brinkmanship. But the state department had some very skilled diplomats before trump, maybe there are some still left.
More I'm tired of america waging wars for economic and political reasons and "never again" takes a firmly moral stance for fighting. It offers a raison d'etre for our prodigious military that i can be proud of.
One thing worth considering and that I have not seen anyone talk about is the fact, that the Belarusians who are now fighting for Ukraine will not just lay down their weapons when the whole thing's over. They will go back home with arms and combat experience and there's every chance they will start an insurrection. One way or another Lukashenko's days are numbered.
I doubt that what happened to that famous Belarusian commander he got smoked by VDV
@@mrmacias4217 - who? when? where? how?
@@guythomas7051 I’ve got pictures of his dead bodie
Sure they will......rofl......most are probably dead already .....Ukrainians said "thanks for coming bitches.....now get to the front, anyone who turns back will be shot"
if i go out supporting a Belarusian insurrection i might get b& but i kinda hope it does happen so they can be rid of lukashenko
As a Belarusian, first of all great job, and then just thought to mention that a lot of Lukashenko support is actually holding on an idea that he is 'wise' to manage to avoid direct war. It is paradoxical and self cotradictory, but propaganda uses both warmongering and 'avoiding war' as their major points and the second one seems more effective. Doesnt mean direct war is imposible, but it seems like it will really impact his already non-majority support
I think the only reason Lukashenko has stayed in power this long is that he isn’t stupid. He’s a pragmatist. Has been playing both Europe and Russia for favours since 1994. He will do the most he can to not annoy Russia while still ensuring that he doesn’t piss off the EU too much. I don’t think he will directly invade Ukraine. It would be either asking for his deposing, or complete integration into Russia and him losing his power.
He is stupid. If he was smart he wouldn’t allow Tikhanovska to run instead of her husband.
But very much on the Russian side. Belarus depends on the untaxed oil imports from Russia. It's one of the ways that Russia subsidizes their economy through their oil refineries. And EU had sanctions on Lukashenko from 2000, so there were barely ever any good relationships. It's just when Russia tries to cut the subsidies or mess with internal politics too much, he acts like he will try to normalise relationships with EU. After the brutal crushing of 2020 protests he does not have this luxury as EU imposed much stricter the sanctions and does not recognize his legitimacy for the most part etc. People probably don't know that when he was elected in 1994 there was a lot of talk about an Union State between Russia and Belarus with Lukashenko as the main candidate for the head of that state. This was quickly forgotten especially after Putin came to power. But he probably remembers
This or he is just extremely motivated to get that colonel rank from Putin.
@@bogdanyer Yeah... "subsidizes" their economy
That's why Belarus is a jackshit poor state that still lives in 1989 communist lifestyle?
All the people are leaving, and it's gonna die quite soon.
This is one of the hardest things, I've found, for Westerners to grasp. That Lukashenko really isn't stupid-- he's actually an astute political operator who's been balancing his own regime and his supposed subservience to Russia for actual decades. His buffoonery is a front-- and you're all being fooled.
If a country almost four times the population struggles to conquer even a small part of the country imagine how one less than a quarter of the population would fare.
14 times* xD Russia has more than 140M people whilst Belarus as less than 10M.
EDIT: Russia has 4x the population of Ukraine whilst Belarus has 1/4 of the population of Ukraine.
@@karolean8342 He was talking about Ukraine.
@@giuseppe7361 ah ok, Russia having 4 times the Ukrainian population, makes sense now.
Well, the point is they would not be alone. Belarus by itself does not pose a threat. But Belarusian Soldiers could become a tipping point, basically in the straw that broke the camel's neck scenario.
take it slow to ensure total victory
As an American I am intrigued by the idea of talking about European defense even when this horrible war cools down. I'm used to a government that answers every defense question with a "yes" so understanding the complexity of defense in Europe or even other areas of the world difficult. You obviously are very knowledgeable on this topic but even more importantly you can explain things in a way that makes it legible for me. Great work as always, hope to see more in the future.
He sounds informed, Scott Ritter and colonel MacGregor are better informed.
I know you are reading comments so I thought I would thank you again for the work you are putting in making these presentations.
I have become a regular of your channel and watched all your videos about the war in Ukraine.
Your arguments are always given the historical context, they are logically explained and put forward.
Each week I check for your new video about this topic because I genuinely enjoy sensible reasoning well above the low quality out of context information that circulate on social media.
Keep up the good work!
Thanks for the kind words. I'm still amazed that people engage with the content even though I don't have animations or flashy presentation. So thank you, both for the comment and for watching!
@@PerunAU no need for flashy graphics and animation, I think your audience (me included) simply wants your content and in depth analysis that's second to non here on TH-cam!
I love your logical approach and analysis, no bullsh!t, no propaganda, just facts, backed up with supporting evidence, and any opinions you have are based on solid research, so have merit to them! Personally after watching your channel for the last few months, your one of the few sources I trust and believe!
You see Lukashenko’s posturing about a NATO attack as trying to mobilize his population. I see it as trying to give an excuse to Putin why his military is really busy and can’t also invade Ukraine.
Right at the start of the war, he ordered troops to the borders with Poland and Lithuania. As far as possible from the invasion into Ukraine.
It is a bit reminiscent to me of when Chrétien ordered more troops into Kandahar and then told Bush sorry, we’re too busy to go to Iraq.
And why Chile ordered troops up to the northern Argentinian boarder at the start of the Falklands war.
Yup Chretien and Lukashenko were both wise to do that.
@@tarsxenomorph8845 Argentina did actually have plans to invade Chile though.
Pretty sure he moved troops to polish border because poland put their soldiers there first?
@@ccdsds3221 u r right. It’s absolutely identical. Except that under no circumstances ever would Poland invade Belarus…. First. Mister two sides of the argument. Duh
Comparing Belarus to Italy seems kinda unfair to Italy as well, Belarus would struggle to reach Kiev with 100% of it's forces, meanwhile Italy's great mistake was to split it's forces and simultaneously invade Greece and Egypt *at the same time*. It would have had much better chances had it devoted all it's resources to just one of these countries.
Italy actually had a significant navy, and its army, both in absolute terms and compared to its opponents was much larger. Also at least at the begining of the war Mussolini's regime was more popular and apparently more stable than Lukashenko's. Mussolini's Italy was a 2nd rate power with dreams of being a world class power. Belarus is very far from being a 2nd rate power.
@@timwf11b yeah Italy definitely had a capable navy but it was hindered by a shortage of fuel.
@@darktemplardelta268 Japan and Germany were also greatly hampered by a lack of fuel. The Italian navy only had to deal with the med (couldn't get out of it anyway) so it didn't need as much fuel as Japan.
@@timwf11b Indeed I believe Italy at the time was considered to be Europe's 4th great power behind France, Germany and UK. Belarus is like the 20th great power.
It's just to express how a country joining the war can cause a lot of damage even I'd it doesn't affect the balance of power or the strategic positions of the (two) sides involved
As a response to the question about Poland invading Ukraine: there was a joke on the Ukrainian side that they'd like that, because they'd immediately enter the EU and there was my joke amongst friends that we should send military to annex as much of Ukraine as possible, organise an indepenednce referendum that Ukraine want's to be independent and boom - Ukraine is in EU.
Laughs aside, nobody wants more territory for Poland, we need to properly govern what we have in the first place. Only thing that is in the area of dreams that Kallinigrad should be seized and given to Lithuania.
Poland should restore the polish Lithuanian commonwealth.
And perhaps if not Ukraine, at least invade Belarus and annex it or make it a protectorate of Poland.
Poland should provide a strong and powerful nation in Europe able to stand up to and challenge the Russian domination that has plagued eastern Europe for centuries. It needs to reclaim it's position as the preeminent power in eastern Europe it once was, able to keep Russian power in check.
Nice try, but Nato is a defensive alliance. Ukraine really deserves membership of Nato and EU, after all the hardship and bloodshedding and setbacks engineered by Putin's puppet Yanukovych in 2013 when he nullified the association agreement with the EU last minute, it only seems obvious. Remember the conflict in ex yougslavia ... Serbia, Slovenia and North-Macedonia all became Nato members, despite conflicts still going on. Can't we organise an international referendum on membership within the 32 ?
Cold war military retiree living in Europe. Absolutely loving your channel. Such a great refresher. Thank you for all the work, research, expertise, and dry humor. Much appreciated!
COLD WAR PATRIOTS HOUSE MEMORIAL nuclear cowboys are in The House!😊
I am from The Belarusians and I liked how you compared Lukoshenko to Mussolini because I myself thought about him like that. And I also think that if Lukoshenko really orders the troops to attack Ukraine, then about a quarter of them or even more will turn 180 degrees and go marching on Minsk.
Mussolini didn't have that problem until the Americans were already storming Italy and thoroughly winning. So I think that's kind of a bad comparison, but yes I definitely agree that the population of Belarus probably wouldn't be happy if they got involved in the war.
@@thememe986 in general, yes, the difference is that Lukoshenko does not have the support of the population
@@jiman3679 Neither does the puppet in Ukraine.....didn't stop him from killing civilians in the east for almost a decade......now look at him.....abandoned by the west.
Тебе 11 лет, зачем ты пишешь что-то? Малыш
@@MrDaddycool520 15. но я хотел бы узнать почему вы спрашиваете ?
The lack of Rusbots defending Belarus tells me even they don't think highly of em.
Rusbots? Oh. The fancy Inglês, that cannot distinguish Russians nationality-wise and citizenship-wise.
@@worldoftancraft Said the not at all fancy Putlerbot...
@@worldoftancraft Doesn't need to either. We don't allow rental advertisements in our papers that say "To Slavs Only".
@@JohnSmith-gd2fg you are holding a candle throughout my life?
@@worldoftancraft in regular warfare, wearing the proper uniform is required. Online, not so much. So yeah, it's quite hard to distinguish a Putin troll supporting Trump from a fanatical Trumpian praising Putin for his support.
I have seen trolls with American, English, French, Hispanic and even Dutch names, all parrots to Putin's words. If they would just follow the rules of war and use a name matching their country....
It's really crazy, I've actually watching some of your video's (only the ones that interest me, like the one about corruption), and now even if there's a subject I would normally not even be that interested in, I still click on it only because it's YOU making them, and I end up watching the whole thing. You have such a talent for making these explanations clear and engaging. Keep this up!!
Same! It's all fascinating and so well presented that it's super interesting to me.
Ive just come back to rewatch this, as hv many others. Given what has happened in the interim, hv u changed ur views at all? Many thanks as always to you Perun.
As a Polish citizen....I laughed a lot after I heard we have plans to invade Ukraine 🤣🤣🤣🤣 noone takes this guy seriously in Poland😁 BTW Poland 🇵🇱 will send another 200ish pt-91 tanks to Ukraine very soon. PT-91 is heavily modified T-72 with added reactive armor and other improvements.
That is a good deal for Poland. It seems the US is going to replace them with older M1 Abrams tanks that we have sitting around in storage. They will need to be upgraded and etc but Poland already ordered 250 M1 tanks and plan on ordering another 116... If they then get get 200 or more M1 units for trading out most of the T72 tanks they still have they will end up with a rather large force of tanks way better then a T72...
Say this for Poland - if anyone wonders who amoung the European Allies would be there with ALL the guns, the Poles are just chomping at the bit for an excuse for another go around with Russia. They’re playing the role of the eager “let me at em” member of NATO. They keep the others from getting complacent.
@@GearHedd Yep, a good deal indeed. Even without that deal Poland would still send those tanks to UA.
Who says there is no invasion? Polish tanks are already crossing the border unopposed!
@@GearHedd Poland is buying the Modern M1A2 SEP3 versions of the US Abrams Tank, 250 of them. That'll be a serious jump in force for Poland. The P-91 Tawdy is a good moderate upgrade of an old Soviet T-72 (and domestically produced, which they can keep building for years) but it's not comparable to the tanks they're about to receive en masse. Poland's military is becoming quite the land power. Ukraine is getting all the old stockpiles plus some new stuff. It's clearing out the inventories, now it's time for new toys.
Belarusian here. First of all, this is very accurate (obviously) second. this man lukashenko, he always lies, I mean Always, he doesn't know the meaning of truth, he's words doesn't have any value
A belorussian. Use the garbage compile of 4 lanauges better than «native speakers» to put them to their place.
He must be pretty alarmed by the possibility of a 'merger' with Belarus becoming a smaller part of 'Greater russia'.
_this man lukashenko, he always lies, I mean Always, he doesn't know the meaning of truth, he's words doesn't have any value_
I sympathize. Here in America, we had the exact same problem with Donald Trump - still do, but at least he's no longer in power.
But it's frightening how fragile democracies really are. It takes citizens who pay attention and who actually give a crap about the rule of law. Here in America, most of us can't even be bothered to *vote.*
We might lose our democracy even while people elsewhere in the world are risking their lives to attain it.
So, efficient spending has been a theme across a few of the videos. During the intro of the Germany-video, you mentioned the French as being able to get exceptional value for their defence spending. I'd be interested as to the factors that allow France to be so efficient, would love to see a video on a 'good' example!
That would indeed be a highly topic, especially consider the French tend to stick to domestic development regardless of export potential.
As a longtime viewer of Russia and the Ukraine situation, I can honestly say that this is one of the best channels on the subject. The commentary is presented in a balanced, straightforward, honest manner with no stupid sound effects, excited, incoherent babbling or desperate Muzak. It is a work of well referenced erudition that, I hope, will be available to students of history for some considerable time to come. Many thanks.
The only better analysis I've found is from Michael Kofman (who only does podcasts and interviews, doesn't have his own channel unfortunately). And it's his job :)
Got that right, Mark
Thank you very much for pointing out that there is no asinine background music during The dialogue. It drives me crazy on so many TH-cam channels, to the point of where sometimes you can’t even hear the words because of the background crap.
@@JonZiegler6 Kofman's and Perun's topics and tone are different enough that it feels like a comparison between apples and oranges. More of either or both would be equally welcome for me.
@@chasg5648 fair point, I'd counter they are both delicious fruit worth consuming :)
A Pole here. There's near to 0% willingness to invade and occupy any territories, especially in the East (Belarus/Ukraine) + anywhere in the world. The society is purely focused on defence. After it turned out that Russia's military is much weaker than everyone thought now some politicians think about an army capable of active defense and potential fighting in buffer countries (Belarus/Kaliningrad/Ukraine) to minimize material losses on Poland's territories.
Well, Uzef Pilsudski was also be focused on defense, when occupying UNR, West Belarus and Teshin. Just like Hitler with Sudetenland and Austria.
Sure but if Belarus accidentally escalated Polands border (I doubt be intentional probably incompetence). I get the impression you'd feel very defensive.
Well, you do have a few far-right nutjobs who hate all of Poland's neighbors and want to reoccupy territory they deem as lost, but you get those everywhere.
@@user-zb4ef5tf7m Lol, you forgot reason for this was to build Ukrainian state with Petlura not USSR
@@user-zb4ef5tf7m ... or just like Putin in Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Kazakhstan.
Perun: Your warning is so on point, and has to be applied to ALL war at ALL scales.
Hey perun a regular listener from Kenya 🇰🇪 . I would like to appreciate the kind of knowledge you have impacted on my life since the Russia- Ukraine war. Keep up men . Please also dont forget about Africa as is the next battlefield for cold war. Keep the good work 👏.
I know they're not directly relevant to the war, but Kazakhstan has also resisted calls from Russia to lend support to the invasion in a much more open and defiant manner than Belarus has, that could be an interesting video to look at the Kazakh positions.
I've heard so much about how the moves by Russia and the sanctions basically screwed up a whole mess of things in Kazakhstan and not the mention that all the surrounding countries had their economy significantly hurt by Covid.
Kazakhstan is way away from the current frontline to be very relevant. I think it should wait for time when Perun will make series about economic and military balances on post-war Northern Eurasia.
Kazakhstan is well worth watching. It appears that they are trending away from Russia and heading to closer engagement with the west.
@@matthewbeasley7765 They have pretty solid chinese and turkish support that allows them to be brave against "the bear". But still their influence over current conflict is limited to their not supporting Russia (in order to break a bit more free from Russian influence).
@@090giver090 this, while Russias toiling in the west Chinas continuously severing their ties with central asia and one of their longest sphere of influences
Perun, could you make an analysis about the Electronic Warfare situation? It seems to be quite important to understand what is going on.
We're only now starting to get a better understanding of how the electronic war developed in the opening days of the invasion - and what has happened since is still very much the realm of rumour and speculation in open source. So It's a topic I'd really like to cover (along with a look at why drone usage has evolved so much from the early days of TB-2s blowing up BUKs) but there isn't quite enough to go on yet that goes beyond mere speculation.
@@PerunAU a good next topic you should talk about is Iran giving drones to Russia
@@PerunAU I am curious with Russia being squeezed financially , have they been selling off their gold reserves to China , and if we are seeing a dozen Chinese Banks publicly imploding , what percentage of banks there are in danger of imminent collapse ?
@@PerunAU And whatever happened to that The Krasukha-4 that was captured near Kyiv that the Russians generously donated to the Ukrainians in their """feint"""?
@@enhancedutility266 I thought they refused to help. Is a simple choice for Iran: give Russia some drones vs. getting slapped with more sanctions.
Thank you, as always, for the wonderful and well-explained information combined with the laugh out loud asides. 🙂 Slava Ukraini! Heroiam Slava! 🇺🇦
I look forward to your informative posts and often refer to them in my own comments on other channels. I particularly love the historical perspective.
I always get happy when I see a new video posted by you. Unusually high quality content. Keep it up!
Cheers, much appreciated.
I totally agree! "Happy", however, is a tough word to use with this subject matter though.
Ukraine: Can we join EU?
EU: No.
Ukraine: Can we join NATO?
NATO: No.
Lukashenko: The west wants to invade Ukraine so they can surround us, instead of passively letting Ukraine join them to do literally that!
Pretty sure that the first thing that Lukashenko thought when being told of Putin's plan to invade Ukraine was "oh bollocks... that's me screwed"
The EU approved Ukraine's EU application so,,,
Just because it isn't immediate doesn't mean they're not set to join
@@xDCAxNexus But that's in direct response to the invasion. Before, they wouldn't let Ukraine join because they didn't have a near term prospect of meeting the criteria, and because it would piss off Russia. Now, how Russia cares is much less important, and they're willing to forgo and postpone the criteria to a great degree. But still, Ukraine was just allowed into a line with a thousand more steps to get in.
Your videos are phenomenal, educational, and cut straight through the noise. I greatly appreciate your work!
You're my favorite source of information on this conflict. Entertaining, informative, thorough and most importantly, never sensationalized. Keep up the great work
Another well laid analysis, as always enjoyed those witty remarks here and there.
I'm Russian, and since 2020 Belarus protests, some have been comparing Belarus to a "future mirror" of what could go down in Russia.
The brutality of suppression of those protests was really shocking & eye opening to me just how violent regime may get to stay in power.
And it seems like Belarussian population is ahead of Ru in terms of being woke (I say it unironically) to the true nature of their regime.
Good luck, when the time comes
This might be the best point for them to have a revolution, because the only reason Lukashenko stayed in power was because the brutality he ultimately ordered was inflicted not by his troops, but by the Kremlin's. It will come, unless the war collapses the regime first, but at some point, as we are seeing in China, it will become too much.
@@unconventionalideas5683 What's going on in China?
@@sErgEantaEgis12 month long lockdowns, but I don't see them collapsing any time soon despite higher public unrest
@@ReaperCH90 Their locking up the Banks and preventing people from accessing their money. Now, while we all know that it is done to prevent a "Run on the Banks" and to stop a cash liquidity problem, we also know that getting between people and their money is not a good move politically. China is in for some interesting times as various problems rise to the surface. I am thinking about the empty cities and the poorly built apartment buildings.
Thank you! As an American, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I was somewhat ignorant of the political turmoils in the former Soviet states and even their geographical location. At the end of your 1+ hour videos, I can always say that I learned something new. Again, thank you and keep up the good work!!!
Always fantastic top notch research and presentation. Thank you Perun!
Honestly this was a great video as always and I didn't notice any change in quality whatsoever. Keep up the good work!
From my understanding, Russia has (had?) another former Soviet state that it was propping up--Kazakhstan, which had a major domestic disturbance just before the war started that Russia helped put down. But after the war started, Kazakhstan generally joined the Russia-critiquing side of things, which has been an interesting development.
I realize it may be a low priority compared to topics more directly involved in Putin's war, but the situation in Kazakhstan might be a topic worth addressing at some point.
Kazakhstan has leverage over Russia, which is support from China and the fact that Russia cannot currently afford to send any troops to the region. It is amusing though, that not even two months before the war started, Russian-led CSTO troops basically helped preserve the regime, and destroy the influence of Tokayev's rival Nazarbayev.
Sure do agree Kazakstan would be interesting to delve into and the stances of their leader of late !
NATO has been subverting former Soviet states around Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. Western propaganda will totally ignore that fact, but it's a game of heads i win, tails you lose. What i mean by that is, the main prize is Western access to Russia's markets and taking over state owned assets by Western corporations, the consolation prize if it doesn't work is destabilising Russia and diverting its attention and resources to combat these colour revolutions. Ukraine is the best example of this.
The situation in Kazakhstan is fascinating as it's post Soviet history. Information from there seems very patchy though. Would love to learn more
@@awannagannaful Typical Russian assumptions. Russians always assume that an alliance cannot be purely defense, that it has to be a network of vassals in service to a great power (aka. the Warsaw Pact).
Russians cannot contemplate the fact that Eastern Europe no longer wants to associate with the broken mafia state of Russia, that they no longer want to be in it's "sphere of influence". So, they justify KGB-style conspiracy theories to explain how Eastern Europe began NATO members.
As a retired Defense Analyst your videos are first class, very enjoyable. You aredoing some of the deep thinking that is not available on pretty much all of TH-cam content providers.
10:20: I would like to use this opportunity to express my respect and pass my greetings to your honorable grandfather, a true man of culture who's not only as witty as you are, but also versed in history of Eastern Europe.
Also, I'd like to say I REALLY appreciate all the research and information you provide on the Ukraine war-related subjects. I was born and raised in Poland and I'm humbled by the realization that somebody who lives in a country as distant as Australia goes to so much lengths to study the history and geopolitics of my native region and to share his observations.
fun fact: The duchy of Lithuanya had a very big belarussian influence, they were not just subjects. In fact a good part of the gouvernement writings were not written in lithuanian, but in belarussian.
It's early !
So I can sleep at a normal time on a Sunday night in Australia.
Perun finally shows his countrymen some love.
Last week was the result of 3 rendering failures in a row - I do actually enjoy posting these at more reasonable times.
@@PerunAU i am guessing 20 - 50 hours research with 3 - 6 hours compilation and editing per video ?
We appreciate your work , even many news channels just take the copy issued by ~ someone in the north and they all just seem to regurgitate that with no independent research of their own.
@@PerunAU For us in Texas it's right around in the morning when you posted. Perfect timing to start the day.
You should probably stick to it, if it's more comfortable for you.
@@Dodsodalo It was uploaded at 10.30pm on a Sunday night, Eastern Standard Time in Australia.
So it's before midnight by the time thoughtful post video commentary can be thought up with the brain still able to work.
It's a great time slot.
A question of style: I very much like that you added (probably not) to the title of this video and so avoided being clickbait.
Im always excited about the channel update because I am genuinely interested in where you are taking this
Whenever I think about this question, I see the scene from Braveheart where the Irish join up with the Scots against Edward's English forces. Imagine that, Belarussian forces cross the border into Ukraine and immediately turn left to reinforce Ukraine's flank. Only a dream I know...
Just cutting off their territory to Russia would change the war.
12% of the Belarussian population supports Putin's war. While many of the remaining 88% are probably indifferent, the % who supports Ukraine is probably much higher than 12%.
Indeed, there wouldn't be a high enthusiasm if they attacked. If anything, many would support a coup against Lukashenko.
Not a far fetched dream... If their Spetznaz is at home supressing riots and they cross the border by themselves, they might very well do this.
Heard about Belarus sources claiming how arrangements have already been made for entire units to surrender without a shot fired, so who knows...
Maybe Lukashenko knows and is determined not to find out
In Ukraine there is already a Belarusian battaalion fighting for the Ukraine with the russians (but of course not only ethnic russians)
@@diabelgrogaty1963 2 battalions, I believe.
Yeah, how exactly would Lukashenka sell this war? Saying he joins in becuse putin told him to do so would make him look weak and probably lead to his immediate ousting. Saying he wants to help de-nazify Ukraine would make putin look weak because why would he need to ask for help otherwise? Also, a nominally independent third country entering this war openly would be a threshold moment because it would open the doors for other countries to join in as well. There's simply nothing positive to come out of this and if the Belarussian army gets mangled in Ukraine, then Lukashenka falls and putin loses his only vassal in the region.
Apparently he has been trying to claim Ukraine wants to attack Belarus, there have even been reports of attempted false flag attacks. But the Belarus population and military are not stupid and it seems like 90% or more hate him.
If he joins in anyways, who knows what reason he could come up with?
We're working under the assumption that these people are rational people who will make logical decisions
@@dx-ek4vr Buddy, he still has to explain it to the people. They are the ones who'll have to do all the fighting and dying for him and they already made it clear they're not so font of them that they'd do it pro bono.
@@shiroamakusa8075 Its going to be the biggest shipment of weapones from soviet era, if "invasion" will happen.
@@shiroamakusa8075 Let me see... perhaps he coud call it something else... I don't know, a... special operation perhaps? I guess people wouldn't even notice?
Again, thanks for an amazing video. Each one is a treat.
Hahah this is funnier than I thought. My country (Bulgaria) is widely known to have a very small, underequipped and not very well trained army, and we've got 2x the Belarus military budget...
Here we have a saying for people like Lukashenko - "A pair of pistols on a naked belly" :D
Belarus was a staging ground for Russia. That's what it was for Russia at the beginning of the war; that's all it's ever going to be.
it could be a battleground in the future... so many perks of being friends with them :)
Could, but won't. Putin is already too weakened to invade and occupy Belarus, so there's no negative incentive. Meanwhile, if Belarus attacks it takes lots of casualties, for what? Like Russia will share out the spoils? There is a real downside, Lukashenko already faces lots of domestic dissent, adding an unpopular losing war to it makes his position even less tenable. There's no downside to not attacking, there's no upside to attacking, bu there is a down side to attacking! So, Belarus will not invade.
I tend to agree - after going through the risks and what ifs, I ultimately circle back to "what exactly does Lukashenko have to gain here" because the answer is 'not much really?'
This war should be unpopular in Russia but they're spinning it so well it doesn't seem so, you could argue if managed properly it would boost Luka's support.
Unfortunately you assume that participants are rational, well informed actors. Had this been the case, nothing that occured this year would have happened. One does not just invade Ukraine and expect it to go swimmingly, under the circumstances.
That being said I do think Lukashenko has retained sanity and insight a lot better than Putin.
@@PerunAU Well isn`t the answer to "what he has to gain" to secure his powerbase ?
To my understanding the army and the whole security apperatus in Belarus is still based on the sowjet system and Lukashenko is more or less in power because of Putin.
I always think about what Katyn can tell us about history.
The problem is lukashenko like many dictators is eccentric and not fully grounded in reality. It wouldn't make sense for lukashenko to join.
It didn't make sense for Poutine to attempt a blitz to Kyiv durring ukraines mud season either. Dictators aren't exactly known for their grounded rationale actions.
Thanks for you Sunday uploads! love your content and consistency :)
I love this channel. Its really interesting hearing your takes and comparing them to others. Please keep it going !
If they haven't invaded in the first week, they are never going to do so.
Russia don't need them to ... this is over ... someone forgot to tell the west
Like kids fighting at school, if the name calling goes more than 30 sec it ain't happening
never say never
That wouldn't be true. There was always a chance that Lukashenko would help out Putin with some units and he actually tried to but his military refused. This video mostly covered the idea of a mostly Belarusian-led invasion of Ukraine.
@@Andreas-gh6is that was the original russian plan that assumed that russian forces would simply waltz into Kyiv and replace Zelensky with a puppet, the push to Kyiv through Belarus being the main axis. This plan has been definitely abandonned when they retreated from the north to bet everything on the Donbass.
@Perun, you should not be to surprised that the comments section is civilized. You are doing a one hour slide presentation, on one subject, often including procurement with an emphasis on analytical and critical thinking. Meaning, your audience will reflect that. They are looking for an analysis of this ongoing terrible war to better understand it. Please keep it up and thank you 🙏
Love this channel. Roll on next Sunday!
5 months later 👍 . I'm glad your analysis is still correct
I never knew I'd ever get so exited about somebody uploading another power point slide show presentation on youtube.
Notification: "Perun has..."
Me: Whatever it is that I am doing now, I can postpone it for Perun's video. Or do them at the same time.
Kid: Dad, who is this Perun?
Me: Shhh, it is your good night story
If you want to understand how weak Russia has become, recognize that they aren't strong enough to make their most institutionalized vassal state join their war.
And what recourse does Putin actually have?
Very relevant, Operater Starsky is pretty sure BulRus is a tad suicidal
"nuclear warheads [...] are a bit more tolerant of inaccuracy than a couple of tons of high-explosive warheads"
I think that was self-evident, but it's just so hilarious, and this is one of the reasons why your PowerPoints are so captivating.
As the old saying goes, "Almost only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and nuclear weapons."
@@michaelsommers2356 I'd forgotten that one
Wasn’t there a story of Lulashenko wanting to declare war on Poland because a Polish border guard attacked a Belorussian guard post- with a slingshot- they had video evidence, plotted the trajectory, and marked the projectiles landing spot- all to justify declaring war on Poland- over a slingshot.
situation on the border is still hot, if not for those poor saps who paid Luka to be transferred to EU and now being used as fodder, I would call it a comedy.
@@DJRYGAR1As I hear this soldiers dead already.
"Remember the Slingshot!" should be their own version of Remember the Alamo.
A news story to distract the restless people, nothing more.
So many laugh lines help the subject enormously and make this channel watchable. “expected efficacy of a head taking on a concrete wall”, “most surveilled, most transparent battle space in human history”
Really well researched history and other facts! Looking forward to many more vids.
Apart from the military access/supplies/munitions, Belarus' most positive contribution to the Russian effort has been by basically following the fleet in being doctrine, just swapping out fleet for army. The army's very existence and the fact you cannot 100% rule out their involvement means Ukraine has to keep forces around there that aren't bolstering the Donbas or pushing towards Kherson. And by continuing to not do anything, it's amazingly cost effective in how many troops you can keep pinned down. An offensive is gambling those Ukrainian troops you have pinned on the border and betting that it can decisively turn the course of the war, but if it fails you've either eliminated Belarus as a factor in the war entirely, or in the worst case scenario Lukashenko is ousted and his successor takes the fact that Russian troops are somewhat busy to sever ties.
Honestly I think Putin is actually more desperate for Belarus to get involved than Lukashenko himself. Remember Putin's been going to the CTSO and asking for troops, and places like Kazakhstan have told him to take a hike. Much like how Putin has bled the separatists white as cannon fodder, Belarusian troops would delay the time he has to take actions that, while not officially mobilization, will be interpreted as such by the Russian people. That would explain Lukashenko trying to drum up support for involvement in order to please Putin, but if that goes nowhere, which it very much looks like it has, he's not going to go very hard against that sentiment. Putin is not in a position to either force Belarus into the war at gunpoint or bail Lukashenko out from the likely backlash.
He who rides the Bear can not dismount...
Luka could be throwing up dust and waving the matador cape to show Putin he is really trying hard, then asks for 200.000 Russian soldiers to support his attack. Two weeks later, he can call Putin and tell him his forces are as ready as can be and all they need is those 200.000 Russians...
Basically Luka is trying to placate Putin without the intent of attacking. Maybe it's not just the army who intend to fire shells at empty fields...
Then again it's not that drastic because Ukraineans will want to cycle troops to recouperate anyways, and you can do that on the belorussian border. Take weakend formations out of combat and put them on the belorussian border to train and remobilise before sending them back. In the end you can mix seasoned and green troops at the belorussian border and try to keep fresher troops fighting the russians.
I dont get why he won't integrate the separatist forces into their undermanned BTGs. Seems like a no brainer instead of using them as cannon fodder. It will make the BTGs more effective as a whole.
Meanwhile Russia's forces are pinned down along North-West, West, South-West, the South, South-East and the Japanese home island Kuril Islands and Konigsberg in Prussia and Moldova. If Romania moves in a gets rid of Russian forces in their country, all Russia can do is threaten nuclear retaliation yet again.
@@rodiculous9464 Because Russian conscription laws would apply to the Separatist forces, meaning they can just back home instead of being used as cannon fodder. So long as they part of another country, they are subject to another countries conscription laws.
These videos are what I look forward to the most on Sunday mornings (in my time zone). Thanks for all the effort you put into them!
And thank you for pointing out that a weak army with grand ambitions can seem comical, but is far from harmless. It's easy to mock dictators, but we should never forget about the civilians who suffer because of them.
Badly researched videos about things happened months ago or were a talking points months ago. I guess you have too much free time. From a failed gaming youtuber of that.
Unlike all the other channels as well as televised media, you ask all the right questions. You help one look at, and understand all the angles of war. You are very intelligent and I hope at some point you share your history. You certainly didn't learn what you know at a University. Please share. Love the videos and all the content 👍. God bless
Highly informative..thank you..congrats on your getting so close to 200K…hard work pays off. Salute 🫡 to you Peru’s.
Just wanted to say thanks for doing these informationals, the time/effort is greatly appreciated.
I could imagine that sending the Belarusian veterans from Ukraine back home with military equipment for suveneers could spell the end of the "last dictator in Europe"
ngl if they do get a flat out civil war brewing they might get some additional western equipment.
I dunno if they have nearly the numbers to do it themselves, but they could foster an effective rebel cell
Ironically, this war in some ways gives Belarus exactly what it wanted: it gives Lukashenko an excuse for more european rapproachment after the war, makes Belarus more military and economically vital to Russia than ever before, massively degrades the power differential between Russia and Belarus, undermines the popularity of Putin without destroying him so he's more amenable to deals.
In many ways, this war liberates Lukashenko to do whatever he wants after it's over, to either lean into the revolutionary wind and move towards Europe, or to finally get a firm hold on Putin like Putin has on him to secure Putin's support and guarantee he wouldn't go for a successor (or an anschluss). Why would Lukashenko go to war when that would destroy everything he stands to gain via neutrality?
I think he would go to war for he's ego alone, this is a man who takes pride in calling himself the last dictator of Europe, is he really gonna stand by and let Russia take all the "glory"? I don't think Lukashenko is a rational man, the sauna and vodka treatment for Covid is a good example of someone who's not thinking rationally or logically.
The issue is that Lukashenko won't ever be able to move toward Europe, because he is too anti-democratic for that, Europe is hosting his counter-president, and is supporting people that hate him. At this point, Lukashenko cannot be that much more neutral, because one of the sides hates him.
Yup.
'Neutrlity' is a 'bit of a strech, but I agree with the sentiment.
It's a super dangerous game but perhaps the only one worth playing if you are Lukashenko and you want to survive as dictator forever. While a humiliating withdrawal will mean Russia will need decades before it can even consider being a peer threat to NATO... it most certainly will have more than enough to take revenge on Belarus if it so chooses. And unlike Ukraine, no one in the west is going to help. On the other hand, the memories of the repression is still fresh in European minds thanks to a very active civil society in exile. Unless Lukashenko immediately kicks Russia out and supplies Ukraine with its weapons, there is no possible chance for rapprochement since Belarus has zero leverage or anything else of immediate value to Europe.
I actually had heard of Poland taking Western Ukraine in the event of eminent total Russian victory. As you pointed out western Ukraine used to be eastern Poland. They would be saving them from the Russians not conquering them. Regardless a collapse of the Ukranian military doesn't look likely. They might be losing a meter at a time but I don't think they will collapse.
Pretty moronic idea don’t you think? Declare war and invade, after pouring millions into armament for the Ukranian army. They wouldn’t “save” anything. They’d turn themselves into a pariah state.
@@SwitchTF2 no they wouldn't be back stabbing Ukraine. In the event of a Ukranian collapse they would prevent the western area, Lyviv and perhaps Kiev falling in to Russian hands. They could exist as a state of Poland. It's better than the alternative. Anyway I don't think Ukraine will collapse, they are just going to get ground slowly backwards until everyone has had enough and looks at peace more seriously.
I could see Ukraine giving a portion of western Ukrainian to Poland so that nato can protect what ever Ukrainians can flee to it but there’s zero chance of a polish invasion of reclamation or military intervention in Ukraine unless it’s specifically to attack Russia not just to seize Ukraine
@@balmorrablue3130 I think they would do it just to stop Russia getting places like Lviv. If it was ever imminent that such a thing would happen. I doesn't look like Russia is going to get that far anyway.
Love the title and when I have the time the content is bang on gold. Keep it up mate 💪
At the beginning of the invasion, there were some voice in Poland, on the far right, that "We're on the wrong side of this war, we should use this opportunity to take Lvow back". That line of thought was OVERWHELMINGLY shot down. Nowadays there are some voice that Poland has helped Ukraine enough, but Poland has taken a side, it's a done deal, there is basically no chance of Poland backstabbing Ukraine.
They sound like Russian agents.
And Poland keeps supporting with more stuff all the time. Now they will send 232 tanks. Great job Poland 👏
I'd be really interested in an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of foreign volunteers, specifically UK and EU citizens travelling to Ukraine and lending their support, whether that's in the front line or in other services such as logistics or aid.
It is fairly simple, experienced personell with military experience used as instructors or a core around which less experienced troops can form is a benefit. Volunteers with little to no experience could free up troops from guarding rear lines etc, but using them at the front would be detrimental with losses and weakening the overall strength by adding inept personell to a battle plan. See how the Germans fared during ww2 when weak and inept Hungarian or Romanian units holding their flanks folded.
Lmao you need a whole video for that?
This is an excellent analysis. Your reasoning and hypotheses are very well developed and your presentation of them is spot on. I eagerly await every installment to your channel and I have never been disappointed. Thank you for all of the effort that you put into this and the others and please keep them coming.
This is one of the best channels on TH-cam and should be promoted by the algorithm to anyone who enjoys quality research and analysis
Perun, you are translating the modern, military world into civilian for civilians and we thank you.
yes
Thank you very much for your work! Cheers from Belarus! From my information bubble point of view support for this war is even less than support for Lukashenko. Wish best for Ukraine!
Well done thankyou for sharing such a resarched subject amazing how you put this together great video.
really do like all this so well explained as well.. i wish you all the best..
Belarus did not enter the war when it started. After seeing russian forces butchered for months while Ukraine mobilised and NATO put more forces in the east, I don't know what could convince Lukachenko to enter a war which would be extremely impopular.
Putin can say, "Lukachenko, enter the war or tomorrow morning will be your last"
@@Edax_Royeaux which would leave Lukashenko 2 options : comply into a suicide war, or seek protection in NATO.
Putin already managed to push neutral Sweden & Finland into NATO. Does he want to risk another diplomatic humiliation ?
@@Duke_of_Lorraine Entry into NATO is a slow process, his only option is a war in Ukraine which isn't a suicide war, or a war with Russia which is a suicide war.
Take for example if Russia invaded Finland today, they aren't NATO members yet so NATO would not be compelled by treaty to declare war.
@@Edax_Royeaux I don't say entering NATO. One condition is being democratic, that alone would bar Lukashenko from entering. I meant seeking NATO's protection, I'm sure some would like the idea since it removes some russian plans like rushing the gap to Kaliningrad.
@@Duke_of_Lorraine I don't recall NATO forming military alliance to those outside of NATO members. The US will support Japan, a non-NATO member, if she is attacked, but that's the US, not NATO.
Going back. Normal political analysist: There was the Sovjet Union. Perun: The mongols did a bit restructuring. Love it. This is one of the few channels that can say it's going to be about history it's going to be complicated and people stay and listen anyway.
It's time Putin accepted that Russia isn't a real country and that it all belongs to Mongolia.
Thank you for the excellent analysis. I look forward to the next one.
I’ve learned so much from you since I found you. Can’t thank you enough!