Thank you very much to the Patrons who voted decisively for this topic. One reflection after making this episode is how both new all of this is - and also the extent to which it isn't. The US has long published Industrial Capability Reports for example (linked in the description and worth reading for their more detailed look at particular capability areas like castings and forgings) which included recommendations. What does feel new is the amount of money and focus being directed at the issue - just as surging foreign orders and a changing demand picture are also putting upward pressure on investment and output. As with any strategy, a great deal of the impact will likely come down to sustained execution - but for a lot of systems, the rise in output is already fairly apparent.
I think the best way to make Ukrainians less stressed and capable of going into the offensive is by supply as much artillery ammo as we can humanly produce, then make swaps between European or Asian countries for new gifted equipment and at last supply from the storage much more APCs, IFVs, tanks, SAMs, and jets
One of the most overlooked realities about the US military industrial base is the raw efficiency of modern designs compared to what you see from WWII. Example: Those thousands of B-17G bombers pale in comparison even to 1970s-1980s lightweight fighters when looking at payload, service ceiling, combat radius, and the ability to configure for multirole or swing role missions. B-17G payload was typically 4,000lbs, with a max of 8,000lbs and flew FL250 to FL300. Crew: 10 F-16 payload is 17,000lbs, 450nm combat radius, FL500, can do A2A and A2G on a single sortie, plus it can aerial refuel, single pilot. A single F-16 can deliver 4x 1000lb JDAMs, or 2x 2000lb JDAMs with a CEP of 1-3 meters for each target, then swing into A2A and shoot down threat fighters or drones in the same sortie. That's not even the most capable fighter we have. Its payload is one of the smaller ones in US inventory.
The "surge" is most certainly underway. Limitation where I am at is 1) desk space, 2) restrooms, 3) parking, 4) retention of talent, 5) leadership and planning, and 6) continuing resolutions and funding. That is a listing in actual order of need and/or resolution model in place. Items 1 thru 4 are being worked, 5 and 6 are getting better slowly. I have been in this business for 40 years, suffice to say things are getting "interesting."
People at the working level have been predicting this exact crunch for literally decades. As “lean” dominated industry it was obvious we were going to be utterly screwed for surge capacity when it was inevitably needed one day, at least to anyone who realized Fukuyama was an id10t.
@@Uncle_Neil Good luck recruiting talent into DoD contractors as the Baby Boomers are in their final years of retirement, Gen X are all in their final years of work in established industries/ retiring, and Millennials largely don't have the skills or discipline to fill contractor jobs in high value-added defense tech sectors outside of the ones already doing it. It does suit Gen Z well in many ways as they are extremely introverted and tech-oriented, with a gloomy outlook on life due to the intensity of awareness of instability and being cheated out of the normal childhood carefree experiences of life.
@@SamBrickelldon’t say stupid shit like that, it discredits the entire position. Watch video and smile at the logistics of war production. Don’t speak politics unless you are making a coherent statement
@@dasbaums5842 Yes, it is built on immigrants, but a certain political party, doen't like anyone with a darker skin albedo. Because of historically poor treatment, those same immigrants, when they are able, tend to vote, for the most part, for the opposition. Oh darned!
“And then Vladimir Putin decided to launch his special defense stimulus operation…” Tex would be proud of that one. Because it is that best of truths. Horrible and terrible . And also hilariously true.
A defense stimulus America can afford... even Europe can afford (after a lot of shouting and wailing)... but Russia simply can't in the long term. Especially with it's refineries exploding. This was supposed to be a two-week war for Russia. Things aren't easy for Ukraine either, but Russia must bear all the cost of everything alone.
@@LD-Orbs That explains why Gen Cavoli gave his 3,000,000 shells ammunition production in Russia as estimates to the congress on 10 April. Which as he said - equals to 3 times more than 32 NATO countries combined. He also estimated that Russia is producing and/or refurbushing well over 1,200 of tanks per year. Which is even higher than 3 times in comparison to 32 NATO countries. How about we stop jerking off and get a grip on reality for once? Speaking of refineries. US urged Ukraine to halt these attacks. Must be a coincidence and definitely not because US is a consumer.
Basic economics would tell us that a shortage of skilled workers, coupled with a strong demand for their services, would lead to rising wages. I have a coworker who recently left Electric Boat, and I asked him why they couldn’t find enough welders. He pointed out that a welder couldn’t afford to live near the shipyard, and would face a serious commute each day. Who knew that affordable housing and paying a decent wage would be national defense issues?
If you want to see a worse case scenario & look at what happens to a country that offshores ALL its industry just look at the UK. Thatcherism was Reaganomics on steroids. The Brits can’t build anything, anymore. And now that they’re out of the EU they’re doubly dependent.
@@20chocsaday The Germans did that, they modeled their economy on social democratic concepts, favouring small and medium businesses, those being the true backbone of the German economy, not the corporations. And it worked.
@@MorbidEel In WWI, women who were trained as machinists for war production created a failure rate of about 1/3rd in 1916. This was absolutely expected, as the time it takes to train ANY machinist is about 3 years.
@@genericyoutubeaccount579 I think the fine arts students would have a really good welding technique. Practicing fine motor movement is needed skill for welding. We can save the finance bros for sweeping.
As one who works in the US military industrial complex, here's what I see. We moved to a 70% base of commercial accounts after Cold War. Though we did still do 30% military, the commercial kept us sustained. We do have a go plan for a robust reboot for the military if needed. I even know how my job would change. Recently, the 70-30 has morphed to 60-40. This is far from war footing but was easily done. For my particular little corner of the MIC, we're good to go if needed.
I would suspect it depends on which specific segment a given company is in. If it’s something electronics, clothing, or other related, it can be moved to commercial, 155mm howitzer shells, who else buys those.
@@c1ph3rpunk You can reset production of 155mm to steel-made and maybe hardened products or half-products. Tools, parts of machines etc. The problem with 155mm is actually in building new, very modern production lines. Everything is done by robots in such places, and those are very expensive.
As another who works in the US military industrial complex, I must admit that I have trouble seeing past the huge dollar signs associated with this shift towards more military spending.
@@HanSolo__well, like Perun said, the problem's in the energetics, right? Who else buys military-grade very high explosive compound? Mining charges are special-made now with their own branch of stable explosives.
Perun, if you let two marines guard the design documents you'll just end up with beer fridges in APCs, Mameluke sword sheaths in F-35 B cockpits and bayonets on tanks with all edits drawn in crayon.
But that sh*t would _work!_ Ingram -- Marine. Atchisson -- Marine. That guy who got the F-22 thrust vectoring to work (identity classified, public credit is diverted to a real f*-up) -- MARINE!
Only if they are Japanese Marines (the Japanese during WW2 fitted bayonets to heavy machine guns as standard) and all Japanese fighters had sword stowage as standard).
Can confirm that a lot of these machine shops are relying on an older workforce. And their knowledge base is HUGE. I never considered myself lazy always working manual jobs, but I now work with a guy that needs his hip replaced and another that's blind and one eye. But they can troubleshoot and get a machine up so much faster. 40 years of experience will do that.
Yup. My FIL has been in blue-collar jobs for probably 45 years now. My wife went to a very exclusive grad school, and people kind of made fun of him, because their parents were doctors and lawyers. But their parents can barely change a tire, and my FIL could build you a functioning, street legal big-rig from scrap metal on his own. He came from a time where if you needed a skill, you learned how to do it, and your company was glad to have it when you showed up, or they taught you to do it, rather than expecting an entry level person to show up with 5 years of experience, 3 certifications and an associates degree to turn a wrench.
And I work(-ed) in tech, 23 years at Dell. Got laid off for hitting my Fifties. A buddy I graduated highschool with is a machinist at Hughes and they gave him a bonus to keep him. I have three degrees, he has none. Who won that bet, huh?
If you think the defense workforce is getting old, during COVID financial institutions and governments went scrambling for COBOL programmers to update software from the 60s to deal with the change in benefits and new government programs. I remember seeing one story about someone in their 80s being in demand. He also happened to work with Grace Hopper, who invented COBOL.
We don't have a "defense" workforce or industry. It's all offensive warmaking weaponry to support international full spectrum dominance and domestic population control.
Heh. I ought to see if one old friend is still alive and well; he was upset in 1993 when none of his community college Programming credits transferred to the university -- the CC only taught COBOL!
this is also a little dirty secret of banks. Large banks. You may have an app on your cellphone, with graphics and colors. But the back end where the data, the transactions, accounts, and the amounts are settled is still in COBOL.
The Yom Kippur War in 1973 generated an understanding of how attritional modern warfare can be. The Russian "SMO" is just the latest event that teaches "He who wants peace, prepares for war".
Although we should probably take care not to overlearn lessons from Ukraine. That’s more of a case study of what happens when 2 relatively unprepared peer opponents go to war with eachother.
@@gandydancer9710 hey, come on, US isn't ignoring NATO allies and isn't throwing Ukraine, Taiwan and several other countries with "spoken promises" under the bus. They've increased their military budget since 2021... by whole 0,3%🤣
Not enough workers with the right skill-sets? Stop requiring 3 years of experience for an entry level job and *train them* There's never been a clearer cut and dry solution
Agreed 💯 percent. We only need to look back to WWII. Both of my grandparents worked at the torpedo factory in Arlington, Virginia. Prior to hiring on as machinists, their entire life experience was limited to running a small farm. My grandmother became an instructor for women straight out of high school, making guidance gears and other high precision parts for the torpedoes that kept her merchant marine son safe. And torpedoes were just a small fraction of the output needed to win that war. Think of all of the aircraft, radars, communications equipment and the list goes on. And remember, we were just coming out of a depression where the skill sets needed to accomplish this were in very low demand. And then there is my personal experience. In the late 70s, I got a job as a drill press operator. Because of some unspecified emergency there was an immediate demand for an operator on a very complex computerized numerical controlled milling machine. While I did have some Vo-Tech classes, this machine was far beyond my capabilities. I was the only person dumb enough to apply for the position. The supervisor spent several shifts bringing me up to speed and turned me loose. In just a few weeks I had mastered the machine to the point that I was able to write programs for it. Can you imagine the outcome of WWII if today's restrictions were imposed on workers back then?
There are certain problems with that approach. For one, requiring experience shows the applicant has an aptitude for the skill, which a raw unskilled applicant may or may not have. Companies don't want to waste months or years training someone who simply can't do the job. An example, in an actual prime contractor plant where I worked for 31 years: we had a fairly complex test station which required some ability to operate a computer and to understand details of the test process. The first test operator we were sent due to his union seniority (35 years as a test tech) lasted two months, during which test rates dropped by 50% and defective product leaked through the system. We finally had to tell the production manager that we needed a replacement, so they sent a much younger but more savvy guy (still 5 years experience) who eventually became able to maintain the test station by himself as well as doubling the test rate. Abilities count, a lot. Yes, test tech was considered an "entry-level" job, but an associates tech degree, relevant experience or tech certificate was required for good reason. Assemblers, OTOH, needed only a HS diploma.
I’d say about 75% of the machinists at the company I work at are going to retire in the next few years or so and with them goes so much irreplaceable know how. It’s weird to finally get a Perun video talking about the same issues I deal with at work.
And the fact that the so called “Ukraine aid” bills are more like the aid the American defense industry and also help Ukraine bill. It win-win-win and we still can’t get it done.
As a reservist in a DLA unit, thanks for the shout out Perun. Not many people know we exist, but like many things in the world, its the background logistics that keep things going.
@@nickcharles1284 Is defense analysis a new means of promoting war or what the charge is there? If you don't like war, you should prepare for them instead of ignoring the matter entirely.
@@TeeBar420 In the last 150 years the US has never been 'preparing for war'; it simply has been at war. And for the last 80 years it has been fomenting wars abroad, and losing them. Kicked out of Vietnam. Kicked out of Iraq. Kicked out of Afghanistan,. And now its latest proxy, Ukraine, is being destroyed. What in this long sordid history makes you think the US is capable of maintaining a peace through constant warfare?
For those wondering, cobalt-samarium alloys are used to make more robust, but more expensive and slightly less powerful rare earth magnets than neodymium-based ones that are more commonly used nowadays.
@@correctionguy7632 Well, if you need the corrosion resistance and higher resistance to demagnetisation for long-term storage, or magnet working in much wider temperature range. Also, they were (I think) the first type to be mass-produced, so some older stuff may simply have them because that's what was available.
In 2013, I seriously looked into an Advanced Manufacturing training program, it would of meant 1 yr full time heavy duty skills training...Then I found out, I'd only make $2 an hr more than working in a grocery store pushing carts...so obviously I took another path. People aren't going to invest their time money and effort into acquiring a skill set, if they can't predict a profitable return on those efforts
That's the problem I have the current push for manfucturing in the US. They say they want workers but the payscale pails in comparison to doing Tech Bros 'grunt work'. If it was about the money, I'd run to Austin's video game studios and get $10-15K more a year there than manfacturing here in OH. Literally the only things stopping me is I don't want to grind myself into the ground troubleshooting the latest looter shooter and my family is all up here. For all the "sudden demand" for blue collar workers, truck drivers etc. No one is offering substanal improvements in take home pay and benefits. if you want money, beyond your wildest dreams become a C-suite. If you want good pay for skills, become a tech worker in certain areas. If you want to draw and pay the rent become a fashionable designer. And if your a loser with no other prospect, work with literally anyone who just flew into the country last week with minimal English skills, pull car parts off the line for barely enough to pay for a 1 bedroom in Columbus right now. It may be almost interchanagable with food service and retail save for a little more pay, standard healthcare package and a solid start time. Frankly, I'm just planning on catching up on self care/dental work this year before hitting the job market again next year, Cause Its a lot of work for not a lot of free time, or extra money. Who knows, maybe I will take up some defenxe work provided it has Union payrate. Otherwise refreshing my computer skills going into tech/office work is probably what I'm going to do. By the incentives on the table, moving to the factory making MANPADS doesn't rate that high as a young American worker.
@@stevejdickey Pretty much this. People overplayed the "Manufacturing doesn't pay enough." Meme till now there is people stupid enough to think it. An example I can think of is was a test done where people did a survey to figure out what the estimated average yearly pay in certain manufacturing work was vs. the actual pay. The average person thought the average wage for manufacturing work with a two year degree was 62,000$ or so. When the actual number was closer to 97,000$.
"but in the interest of time, and because even my audience starts to hit its limit when you begin discussing things like contract authorities" Perun dont threaten us with a goodtime mate.
"the adcap is what the us navy came up with to fight soviet subs that do 30 knots submerged and can dive so deep they accidentally find the set for the next meg movie" 😂😂😂😂 i love peruns sense of humor
@@extragoogleaccount6061 Megalodon, giant prehistoric shark. Every once in a while, a tooth washes ashore (in real life), but only identified due to fossils, much like the occasional kraken tentacle washes up on Icelandic or Argentina's or New Zealand's shores. The movie is _The Meg._
“The Akula is passing below the layer, sir! Also, uh, we’re getting a third-party transmission on a secure channel! I think….It sounds like Jason Statham, sir!” “Here we go again. Lieutenant, maintain course and bearing. Is tube number 4 still clear?” “Yes, sir. Do you want me to load another Mark 48?” “Yes, Lieutenant, thank you. I suspect we’re going to have to blow up a bloody big shark sometime in the very near future…” “Sir?” “A fish a fish, man. Make it so. God I hate sequels…”.
As a recently graduated engineer who got a DoD job out of college, there has NEVER been a better time to get into the defense industry. I got an offer after just one phone interview, and from my understanding there’s no cap on the amount of engineers we’ll hire, as long as you have a bachelors degree in engineering (or for interns, pursuing one), are a US citizen and have a clean criminal record. I’m fairly certain this hiring frenzy is also applying to blue collar jobs (eg Artisans) too.
Yup. But for some reason, I know experienced Marine Electricians who say that the Union is requiring all new Apprentice applicants to already have a Bachelors Degree . . . in any subject, but a Baccalaureate, to pull wires, dig ditches, and weld!
@@davidgoodnow269 yeah that’s definitely pretty stupid, technician work really just needs a lot of hands on experience. Part of our team includes former Marines and Sailors who install the equipment we work with, and their knowledge is indispensable, definitely not something you can learn in college.
@@MarcosElMalo2 If you're the kind of person who thinks a pretty weld can be outright sexy... why the heck don't you take them up on the offer? My wife's cousin (who has Asbergers) has a trade degree in metal fabrication and ended up going down the welding rabbit hole. His base salary is basically dictated by how many certifications he holds (which is a lot), and because he can weld a rubber band to a stick of dynamite, and have it pass X-ray inspection, he A) earns more than most engineers, and B) ever only gets to do the interesting shit.
@@davidgoodnow269 gotta support the indoctrination.... I mean, 'higher education', grift you know. Can't let useless commissars, I mean, 'professors', go hungry now can we?
In terms of logistics supply Poland is a major supplyer of TNT for the US. Because the DoD came when we entered NATO to see what stuff we had to offer and when they saw how good and pure our TNT was they decided they wanted some for filling artillery shells.
The image of US DOD officials meeting some Polish firm representative in some dark alley way, using a crowbar to open a wooden box, and sniffing how pure those TNT are.
Must be for export, almost all of the U.S. military's own shells, bombs, etc. have been RDX since the Second World War was going on! I know that, because they accidentally contaminated the Ogallala Aquifer that supplies four States, and got caught covering it up! They had to pay for well purification equipment and ongoing maintenance of it to everyone pulling from that aquifer.
Old Polish jokes "Poles can't do the most basic of tasks" New Polish Jokes "Nato is keeping Poland on a leash to keep it from Obliterating Russia in a revenge fueled rage" Needless to say, we Americans love the Poles 😁
@@bj6515 Prosecutor of political enemies tends to be highly satisfying job, however in countries where this job position is available there is high turnover and high risk of being purged in next round.
“Complimentary Canadian citizenship” as a Canadian soldier that really hit the spot 😂 Would you ever consider doing a video on the downfalls of Canadian DIB and procurement?
@@janne9034 No I believe it was a joke about how if you waste enough money on poor and inefficient military procurement processes you can be awarded an honorary Canadian citizenship. Because our procurement system is iconically terrible.
@@nunyabzwax6353 How dare you. I'll have you know that giving your military shipbuilding contracts to a shipyard that does not have the facilities, workforce, or experience to fulfill the contract is a perfectly legitimate procurement strategy. I bet you're one of those crazies that think that building our mechanized infantry force around a lightly armoured vehicle from the "Global War on Terror" era is a terrible idea, I'll have you know that our TAPVs will be augmented by a full fleet of LAV-6s within the next half century. Just you wait and see, the RCAFs 12 fighter pilots and 3 fighter jet maintainers will have our fleet of 88 F-35s fully operational on schedule.
A predictable cycle. Private industry doesn’t invest in things you’re not willing to buy at a rate large enough to sustain capability and at a profit. If Uncle Sam isn’t asking for it, private industry isn’t going to maintain it. They can’t afford it and if they could, they won’t. We will be here again in the future as we have been in the past.
The joke about Canadian procurement dysfunction makes me hopeful about a full video on it. Let the rest of the world know about our procurement incompetence!
@@20chocsaday Canada started the Sea King (naval helicopter) replacement project in 1983. The measly 28 replacements are expected to be fully delivered in 2025, 42 years later. Of course instead of ordering known good military helicopters that other countries like the USA use, Canada decided to customize a civilian aircraft model, which all promptly had to be pulled from service due to all of them developing cracks. Did I mention that even though we haven't received the last few helicopters yet, they're already considered obsolete and in desperate need of modernization upgrades? Meanwhile, Denmark decided to replace some of their helicopters in 2010, selected the Seahawk (The same on the US Navy uses) in 2012, and got their final helicopter delivered in 2018.
As much as I loathe Apple, at least with that example, if I buy 100 iPhones and 100 zig zag but slow cables, odds are, I will have 100 phones all charging and/or backing up to whatever the apple backup thingie is. Time warp, or whatever. And if I agree to bump up the buy to 1,000, I will even get those things at a cheaper price. If, on the other hand, I buy 100 Lightnings...of the F-35 variety, and 100 of the latest block upgrades.....how many working F-35s will I have? And if I agree to up the number to 1000....I pay more?
@@LackofFaithify If only 100 F-35s had been built or were going to be built, the price per aircraft would be much higher than it is now. The program hasn't been without issues and some of them still persist, but getting such an advanced plane to be as cheap as it is it and build it in serious volume is a major achievement.
@@smokedbeefandcheese4144when the government doesn’t want to spend money on it’s military it can do what Britain did in the 1930s and decide there won’t be another war in the next ten years so they don’t need to. Just make sure all the other guys agree to this.
Isn't it. And how does it compare to what the russians did, for the 'smo', but after the yeltsin years and all that. They've managed to crank it up beyong needing washing machines or shovels etc to not run out of missiles. Some thinking went into that.
@@henrikoldcorn We, the government, don't need aircraft. You can organise yourselves into the three companies we may deal with, through the one company. The future for defence of this country is rocketry. We will request designs from the remaining company next month. Supermarine was already Vickers. The famous names of the aircraft manufacturers lingered as names. The joint company BAC was eventually BAe. So tales of work mothers and fathers had done were in their children's history lesson.
It is something that Biden’s DoD is actively trying to reverse, as I understand it. Biden has explicitly fingered defense contractor consolidation as a major driver of U.S. defense spending costs. His logic isn’t hard to follow: Perun did so himself.
Near where I live, in Wisconsin, they used to be a giant ammunition factory. It was called badger ammunition. At one point it supplied the United States with 1/3 of its ball powder for artillery shells.
And it was sold to a corporate party that was supposed to keep it viable but let it degrade then deemed it was too expensive to ever reopen and sold the land off! At a huge profit!
I was US Army Captain in USAEUR at the time of the Peace Dividend and was astounded at how deep the cuts were on not just procurement, but training, support and logistics. I felt it was shear madness then and still think so now. It's as if the Defense Department had forgotten every single post war era in European history and trod the same path of un-preparedness.
@@kenweipert7926 Many are not knowledgeble about basic things. During an eclipse gathering, Maxine Waters educated the crowd that the sun was hot and the moon was made of gas. So, what hope is there they would understand something as complicated as history. Half of Congress probably believe the Civil War was fought against Britain. Since the creation of the Dept. Of Eucations, under Carter, our education system is going downhill.......going for the gold in a soap box derby.
The Defense Department doesn't control the budget and spending. That's the OMB doing the PRESBUD and Congress passing the NDAA w/o a lot of politically motivated special adds.
@@kenweipert7926 The discussion in the early 1990's was literally "The End of History." Democracy won, and there would be no more wars. as it was, the US could not sustain the level of military spending from the 1980s, unless there was an active military threat on par with the (then defunct) USSR. It was madness, but we can't make Saturn V rockets, either, because we didn't NEED them for decades.
I'm always surprised to find you are able to keep my adhd mind focused for more than an hour with a PowerPoint presentation. You not only do it occasionally, but consistently, week after week. Thank you for your effort. It must be a challenge to make these and still have a life. Your efforts are not in vain, we (the youtube community) have learned a lot.
I also have ADHD. What is often unreported in media and common knowledge about the condition is that ADHD doesnt just make our attention scatter but it also make us HYPER-FOCUSED if something caughts our interest. I am sure in your life there's things you can fpend a long time in eithout you notiving time passing by. It can be playing a videogame, an hobby, bingewatching an entire tv show, doing a task st your job you will not quit until you finish it, excercise, whatever. ADHD doesnt make us scattered brain but also super-focused too. In your case, Perum's videos.
@carlossaraiva8213 Generally, I hyperfocus with manual labor, playing Legos with my children, or playing video games. I think Perun holds my attention by presenting topics from a perspective I don't experience. Mostly, I am impressed with his ability to make such great content for years without quality slipping or just walking away from it. Maybe it's easier for neuro typical people. But, he still has my respect.
Legitimately do not understand why such a dry Powerpoint presentation get me so excited every week. Like, I guess it just tickles the geopolitics and war economics part of my monkey brain
Standardization vs customization, build in-house or buy off-the-shelf, pursuit of unnecessary perfection, scope creep, delayed delivery of stuff that's not working at all, etc... In my experience in the IT department of a large financial institution the stories are exactly the same
We could learn a lot from America’s military engineering philosophy during the first half of the 20th century. We were, for the most part, gradualists and incrementalists but we were also (usually) smart enough to take advantage of the square-cube law & build shit that had a lot of room for future technology. We didn’t build tanks, ships & planes around untested bullshit but we made sure that our weapon systems could accommodate upgrades & new technology when & if it became available.
I know the Sec. of the Navy recently went to South Korea to take a tour of their shipbuilding facilities and was amazed to when they could show to the day when a ship would be delivered and had everything digitized and full accounting of all parts at all times and the ability to track when they were being installed and everything in a central system. We should be utilizing them to build a few ships for us as much as possible for a while....it feels like the Navy is probably furthest behind out of all the branches in regards to output / procurement at the moment.
As a participant of the DIB it’s very hard as young professional, to get promoted, as all the middle and senior jobs are being held by former cold warriors not really focussed on the business but rather the pension. The only way to get ahead is to get in at the start of a program.
Hey FYI, the 'Kings and Generals' channel gave Perun a shout-out on their latest Ukraine war update. Congrats on over 500,000 subscribers! You'll hit 1,000,000 before you know it.
So where is Australia in this equation. China is looking to buy up minerals elsewhere. If America is smart they should buy up land and our companies for their war machine when the market collapses
Dude your videos are ridiculous, I am just blown away by long and how detailed they are. That is a compliment when I say ridiculous. Keep it up man, I hope you can keep up the pace because I know you are working very, very hard on these videos
It’s almost as if all of us that watched all of this happen over the past 3 decades, and said “this is a colossally bad idea” were right. Wait ‘til you do some digging and find out how bad the cyber space of this really is. Conflicts now use a cyber component, both offensively and defensively, and there’s a massive shortage of that talent. The talent that is there ISN’T in the military.
As soon as I heard about “The peace dividend” and “The end of history”, I knew we were just in the interim between another major round or conflicts. GWOT was a distraction orchestrated by major powers looking to throw the US off-base so they could prepare for territorial expansion in the wake of force reductions and combat power wasted in dead-end campaigns.
Not sure how true it is, but apparently America has if not all then most of the best cyber personnel in various different three letter agencies and intelligence organizations. One of the reasons we have such great intelligence, like how we knew that Russia would invade, how they would do it, and when they would do it, as well as telling Russia about the terrorist attack before it happened (only to be ignored because Russia). Could be wrong however.
@@madmonkeys88 It's true that there *are* highly skilled people employed at such places . . . and *that's where they are kept.* Nobody working *actual* _defense_ is so skilled; they get drafted (Yes, sometimes literally, with a National Security Letter "Notice of Draft," so that there's no legal option, and no public awareness. Alternatively, there's the, "Underground Super-Max cell, or underground cell at a Secure Facility, your choice," and, of course, parallel employment (Agency placement program in a startup or ongoing business.) But those are all *_looking,_* surveillance not defense. The goal since the end of the Cold War has been *maximize insecurity, maximize penetration, maximize **_access._* That has been extensively documented for decades, basically since the Y2K bug drew large-scale wide-spread inspection of all code, with the occasional nudge thanks to WikiLeaks.
I remember when this channel had around 30k subscribers. And now almost 517k. That speaks volumes on the quality of the content and the subjects of said content. Well done Sir! p.s. there are other forums I'm on and I always suggest yours as another avenue for facts and content. Keep up the great work!
@@MarcosElMalo2 Politics! Get a very public end date and a trained chorus of analysts who at every suggested modification suck air in through their teath and then harmonise: "Impacts the end date". Only ever happened on one project I was on - yes, we implemented the original design and yes, it was on time.
@@MarcosElMalo2during the first half of the 20th century our naval design philosophy, at least, was much more incrementalist. We did tend to favor designs that allowed for future technological developments when they arose but we did not, as a rule, build ships, planes, and tanks around magical tech that didn’t exist yet. The Washington and London Naval treatises DID complicate things by strictly limiting tonnage but we usually found a workaround.
So, basically, if you are in a manufacturing adjacent field or interested in manufacturing, this is a good time to get into manufacturing. I've been hearing that from my parents for years, but this really hammers the point home. Even if you don't want to work for the government, when the government snaps up workers, that will amplify the demand in civilian fields.
I'd love to see a South Korean ship builder open a shop here in the US. The big concern with relying on SK manufacturing is that they are so vulnerable.
That is why they are keen to make good friends with the West as quickly as possible. Interdependency is a strong force when it comes to common enemies.
We need to just build some shipyards and then go recruit in high schools. Gen Z is actually going into vocational schools at a significantly renewed pace. Turns out young men don't want to go to gynocentric colleges to be told they are evil and so they are putting on tool belts again just like their grandfathers. So give them highly skilled manufacturing jobs, pay them well, and let them start families again. Everyone wins.
@@RJT80First of all, FO with your bs sexist ideology and vocabulary. Second, we need a restructuring of post secondary education with less emphasis on four year humanities degrees and much more emphasis on advanced vocational training. For example, combine welding with materials science in a two or three year degree program + 1 year or more of apprenticeships. We want both workers that understand the science and engineering and engineers that understand real world work processes. I think we agree on what the goals should be, but also drop your stupid trolol edge lording. You’re not triggering anyone, you’re just making the conversation harder. Grow up and get serious.
The big elephant in the room is of course the strange idea of the USA to move it's industry to China. This move made few Americans rich, but greatly boosted the rise of China. We have no comparison to that in history. Only Venice was in a similar strange relation with the Turkish Empire. While vying the Venetians did do lucrative trade with the Turks and in fear of losing it for good they let many promising military opportunities go. Like the reconquest of Cyprus in the wake of the epic battle of Lepanto.
I feel like when it comes to manufactured goods the EU, UK and US should all reach an agreement for fair or free trade of manufactured goods while all agreeing to high Tarrifs against China and similar nations using unfair trading practices such as slave labor or extremely below global average pay rates.
Why should nations who equally profit from their relationship with China agreeing on high tariffs? But I agree on applying it to countries using unfair trading policies, and unfair policies as a whole, such as the USA. For most of Europe and the worlds’ nations the trading with China is beneficial, while they suffer from unfair policies and even sanctions from the USA. Most of the world is clear on which party it is better with.
Heck of a spot. A few more gazillionaires and devastated manufacturing and manufacturing jobs. But, 75" flat screens are as low as $700. Sadly, America itself would have crumbled if we hadn't starting outsourcing. No one but ourselves, and only a select few of us could afford to pay for all the new fangled crap, if we made it. I wouldn't buy a $4,000 smart phone. Or a $14,000 tv. Neither would most of the planet. It went too far is all. Like how Cyber Infrastructure (Computer Switching Technology, Huawei/China) got involved.
The US should help build up shipbuilding capacity in places like Galveston, Corpus Christi, and Houma, places that already do heavy marine engineering/manufacturing for deepwater oil exploration. Places that already have large dry dock facilities and port facilities.
Do we really want to emphasize heavy displacement vessel force structure in a world of proliferating Unmanned Systems? Those killer drone boats that have crippled a lot of Russia's Black Sea fleet would keep me up at night if I was a SWO.
@@LRRPFco52As impressive as Ukraine's sea drone program had been, it's equally a matter of Russian naval incompetence. Small speedboat threats have been a major concern for a long time and modern NATO ships are pretty good at handling them. CWIS can aim downward for a reason.
@@ToastyMozart Agreed. CIWS is Radar-guided and I think they have upgraded it to improved sea scan/surface threat intercept. Saturation attacks are enough to overwhelm and deplete the self-protection systems on large naval vessels.
Being ready for a war when it happens essentially means doing all the work of fighting a low-grade war all the time. Armies fight as they train; industries produce as they have been built to produce. There is no shortcut.
You provide better analysis than most PAID journalists .. We live in clown world.. you should be on the news explaining stuff to people and providing thought process and how to achieve that. Love your content .
Perun. for as much as you joke that intricate procurement management would be lethal to your channel. If a 4 hour video on April 1st dropped with the title "Acquisition Policy of Bill C9174 - How Rhinemetal's ownership of IPR 247A4 may stunt the 'Zeitenwende' " I swear, a depressing number of people would watch the whole thing.
That Samarium-Cobalt alloy, when used as tracer composition is the best(I mean, the best) blue color. So totally totally vital to Liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Most Americans have a very low degree of respect of jobs that can be called manual labor, but I have learned in my life that while there are lots of jobs anyone can do, most of them are jobs that to do really well requires a great deal of concentration and skill. You won't find the workers that can do these jobs with outstanding performance both in time and quality is no easy thing. When I worked for a company that sold and installed replacement windows, the install manager could always find someone who would install windows and make a relatively basic income, but he had one crew that could install six times the number of windows per day that the other crews could install and could make six times the amount of money.
Thank you - I had noticed some sort of fundamental shift in the 90s, above and beyond peace dividend and general procurement issues, something that didn't seem to get reversed in later decades. I had not seen that "last supper" chart (4:10) previously, and that explains so much. I knew capacity had reduced, I knew labor had reduced, but I hadn't seen how dramatically the number of companies had reduced. Or, in my head hearing this in your voice, "Synergy from mergers is all well and good, but it's hard to destroy a tank by dropping a new org chart on it."
OMG in my graduate job as a naval architect I am required to encourage STEM subjects and I am very very big on doing that to primary school kids. Getting Uni students to join [redacted] doesn't help the economy or the MIC it only helps the shareholders. Whereas, getting little Soffie to want to become a fitter and turner helps everyone.
The only way to manage that is hyper deficit spending (more so than normal) or extreme austerity that would be marked by local rebellions. And that's assuming China continues to supply America with massive excesses of industrial capacity.
Great video. As far as the section where you’re talking about people choosing to work in the defense industrial base, I can say having worked for it for the last 20 years, it’s a great career. Even without a college degree, A college degree, I got my first six digit salary when I was in my mid-20s. Both the Great Recession of 2008, and the Covid crisis had zero impact on my job stability. Of course, to make it further, you do need a degree, but it’s a good career.
I was the last one out of are manufacturing building. In 1992 we where no longer needed, and the navy did not need what we were making anymore. I know the pain that caused, I personally took a 15 dollar per hour pay cut, all of my friends also went through similar things, a lot of them lost their houses, some lost their families, well over one million high payed, well trained people lost their jobs in just a matter of months. In some ways it was worse than having a war. But we were told we would now have peace in the world. You all know how well that worked out.
That's about 20 years after many miners in Britain were thrown out of the pits and the big steelworks started shutting down in Britain. It didn't much affect the South, but how do you retrain a miner to make ladies' bras ? It was their wives and girlfriends who kept these jobs.
My father worked for Grumman over a 30 year career as a mechanical design engineer, designing parts of the Apollo program's LEM, building the F-14, wings for the space shuttle and his final major project was the TMAAP (tele-operated, mobile anti-armor platform or the "killer golf cart" around our dinner table). I suspect the Army is rueing the day it opted not to invest more resources into that program. Our son currently works for NG, and we have frequently reminded him that the US will always need people to keep the arsenal of democracy well-stocked. I've already sent him the link to this phenomenal presentation. Our daughter chose a career in art (sigh)- but we're hopeful her talent will be applied to illustrating the operation manuals for various weapon platforms... 😉
In one of his videos, Chieftain mentioned "educational contracts" that the US Army used in the 1930s. The Army would go to a firm that manufactured mechanical devices--cash registers, jukeboxes, auto parts, stuff like that--and give them a contract for some small quantity of military kits--say, 1,000 .45 caliber automatic pistols. The government would pay for all the costs of tooling and training and pay enough per unit that the manufacturer made money on the production. In return, the manufacturer had to store the tooling and agree to pull it out and start making pistols again on demand. Is the US doing anything like this now? If not, should it?
US did that during the pandemic. A lot of small breweries across the country switched to making hand sanitizer & stuff like that. Some companies started making masks, covid test kits the list goes on & on. The same thing can be done for military purposes.
Part of the problem is that weapons have gotten a helluva a lot more complicated & expensive. You could build a basic rifle or pistol with that kind of approach. Not so much a smartbomb. The manufacturing model is also a lot different; a few sophisticated factories churn out a majority of one item. There isn't a wide "base" to invest in as there was in the 1940's.
It could be done with modern ord., but only on a massive, tiny scale. A building plan spread over many small shops, over all of N. America, assembled in likely regional plants. It may resemble some end of WW 2 German production, but without unpaid slaves.
@@robertsolomielke5134 Has there been any other project like that? The only thing can think of is the F35 program, and even that isn't quite the same thing.
One of the side effects of the draw down in US Defense spending is that Bumblfrack USA, population 1002, has a well armed tactical response force in its local PD backed up by another in the local Sheriff's office backed up by various state task forces. Whether our community needs militarized Police or Andy Griffith is up to you.
Back in 1939 Knudsen ( the Big Boss at GM) was brought in by FDR to plan for the USA’s future DIB if (or when) she entered WW2. He stated it would take 6 months to plan, 6 months to build plant and get machine tools and 6 months to get the work force and train them up. All this nicely worked out by December 7th 1940. I fear a bit of foresight has been missing here…
Problem is, modern stuff is infinitely more complex that WW2 stuff. Much harder to incubate workforce capable of doing that. Also one of the reasons why Russia and others like it are falling behind in miltec - much easier to copy a Nene or a b-29, than, say, an f-35.
That is essentially what happened the first time around. The 1940 Act starting the mobilization of American resources towards a potential war and the Lend-Lease Act were bitterly contested in Congress and both pass by hairline majority..
US Defense spending increased every year since 1995. A lot of the WWII era contractors were organized crime pork barrel feeders enabled by Mafia plants throughout Congress. JFK tried taking on that pork barrel waste already in the early 60s and was looking at appointing Thomas D'Alessandro Jr. The Italian mobsters were still trying to weasel in one of their stooges into the program to protect their rackets, so they sent D'Alessandro Jr., who brought his daughter along for the visit. You know her as Nancy Pelosi.
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 but it passed. Today we have a “peace candidate” that controls the spineless Republican conference through fear of primaries.
the US people arent ready to shift from a commerical based economy to a wartime one which is what is needed to properly fight the wars that are on the horizon. It would take a major shift in collective thinking to get everyone onboard with this.
its mind boggling to me that after offshoring most manufacturing from the west to asia etc, people are shocked that we dont have the ability to manufacture. manufacturing capacity is national security. not just for war, but for any supply chain issues. you can rely on raw materials that you dont have coming from elsewhere, but labour you always have. you should make that a large priority in any serious nation.
If you'd asked 13 year old me, I absolutely would have said I wanted to make precision guided munitions when I grow up. Mainly because it sounds cool, but also because "influencer" wasnt a thing back then.
A big problem of the US (and Europe) is that it cannot force people to do things no matter how much money it can throw at them, and like you said defense manufacturing is not exactly a career path many are interested in (the younger generation doesn't want to have anything to do with wars, among other things). Then there are countries like Russia and China that will absolutely force anyone with a remotely relevant profession to work in military production - the famous drone assembly lines by random engineering students and even migrant workforce are one anecdotal example. The arsenal of democracy does have a bit of a problem with the democracy part of it. That might require more innovative solutions than just mechanically ramping up production in the 20th century way of doing things.
I however think the problem has a 2nd dimension. Back in the day, it was relatively easy to retool manufacturers and skills of their employees. As an example one can give a typewriter manufacturer making rifles, or a small local seaplane maker getting a superfortress to build. Today however i think that it might be way harder to switch production like that no matter what. I don't think a guy working on making a 777 max can just start making the raptor in a matter of days or weeks. Ford factory would be hard to switch to manufacturing uranium infused front armour from lightweight aluminium bumpers. So counting on a quick wartime production rampup is quite impossible in todays day and age, looking at the technology required to produce these systems, rather than those systems themselves.
If the pay is good, people will come. Perhaps some fields pay better than many think, but let’s be honest, a lot of the skilled trades do not pay enough to pull young professionals off whatever path they are on.
That bumper ain't even aluminum, it's plastic molded in Mexico. To get the skilled workers _who can get and keep their mouths shut_ would require returning to an entirely different society, starting by no later than age 8, with the completely different schooling, interests, encouragement, and above all, *trust in society and country.* A basic core _faith,_ as certain as relion has God! So . . . assuming we start now . . . we can _start_ training that new workforce _in ten years._
@@extragoogleaccount6061 We don't need "skilled professionals." We need _to make_ skilled professionals. We *don't* need "community activist" barista gamers, we need people who have _skin in the game!_
@@davidgoodnow269blind nationalism!! the exact same mindset that lead us into vietnam and all the useless proxy wars with the soviets. yeah no, maybe thinking the government is shit isnt a bad thing
My buddy works in the navy as a contractor. There is a problem that came up with important navigation software for a ship class. The previous contractor refused to hand over the software source code, because they owned it, so the new contractor could not fix it. So. They just sorta... coded around the problem. I could be misunderstanding how software works but the principal is there. Major problem caused by a former contractor that makes a ship class less safe. Gotta love it.
During my stint at a shipyard, a chemical supplier for a special O ring went out of business, so no more O rings, and all work on a vital weapon system went dead until a chemical supplier for the O ring supplier was found.
My small robotics company has worked for the ONR. We make mostly underwater robotics primarily for research. Part of the problem is it is difficult to get paid without going through a “Prime contractor” . Also because they are the government and pay indirectly it could take a year to get paid. if you are a small company banks are not actually lining up to give you loans even if you have a government contract. In our case it is not a deficiency in stem talent its money and contracts. I know people i could hire away from private industry we just don’t have the money to do it. Probably part of the problem is we are more research equipment oriented and not making artillery shells.
Wow, amazing! These videos are always fascinating but this was one of your best of the year. Thanks for all you, Perun. You're going a long ways towards educating the engaged citizens of many nations about complex issues.
PGMs are one of the reasons why 155 mm SPGs have gained such an advantage over MBTs. When you combine PGMs with satellite surveillance & drone spotting a comparatively inexpensive SPG can start hitting enemy tank formations accurately at WWII cruiser ranges. A tank simply has no defense against 155 mm laser or GPS guided shells or guided rocket artillery. Modern ballistic artillery now hits with direct fire accuracy. PGMs are relatively pricey but if you can smoke a $5-$10 million dollar tank or high-end IFV with a shell that costs several thousand dollars or a rocket that costs as much as a good used car you’re coming out ahead.
Realising I still haven't eaten dinner yet, stumbling toward kitchen, what am I going to try and absorb while heating up some leftovers.... *checks notifs* Noice. 👍 ed: excellent audio quality this time, well done to Perun's audio tech.
Thank you very much to the Patrons who voted decisively for this topic.
One reflection after making this episode is how both new all of this is - and also the extent to which it isn't. The US has long published Industrial Capability Reports for example (linked in the description and worth reading for their more detailed look at particular capability areas like castings and forgings) which included recommendations. What does feel new is the amount of money and focus being directed at the issue - just as surging foreign orders and a changing demand picture are also putting upward pressure on investment and output.
As with any strategy, a great deal of the impact will likely come down to sustained execution - but for a lot of systems, the rise in output is already fairly apparent.
I think the best way to make Ukrainians less stressed and capable of going into the offensive is by supply as much artillery ammo as we can humanly produce, then make swaps between European or Asian countries for new gifted equipment and at last supply from the storage much more APCs, IFVs, tanks, SAMs, and jets
One of the most overlooked realities about the US military industrial base is the raw efficiency of modern designs compared to what you see from WWII.
Example: Those thousands of B-17G bombers pale in comparison even to 1970s-1980s lightweight fighters when looking at payload, service ceiling, combat radius, and the ability to configure for multirole or swing role missions.
B-17G payload was typically 4,000lbs, with a max of 8,000lbs and flew FL250 to FL300. Crew: 10
F-16 payload is 17,000lbs, 450nm combat radius, FL500, can do A2A and A2G on a single sortie, plus it can aerial refuel, single pilot.
A single F-16 can deliver 4x 1000lb JDAMs, or 2x 2000lb JDAMs with a CEP of 1-3 meters for each target, then swing into A2A and shoot down threat fighters or drones in the same sortie.
That's not even the most capable fighter we have. Its payload is one of the smaller ones in US inventory.
The "surge" is most certainly underway. Limitation where I am at is 1) desk space, 2) restrooms, 3) parking, 4) retention of talent, 5) leadership and planning, and 6) continuing resolutions and funding. That is a listing in actual order of need and/or resolution model in place. Items 1 thru 4 are being worked, 5 and 6 are getting better slowly. I have been in this business for 40 years, suffice to say things are getting "interesting."
People at the working level have been predicting this exact crunch for literally decades. As “lean” dominated industry it was obvious we were going to be utterly screwed for surge capacity when it was inevitably needed one day, at least to anyone who realized Fukuyama was an id10t.
@@Uncle_Neil Good luck recruiting talent into DoD contractors as the Baby Boomers are in their final years of retirement, Gen X are all in their final years of work in established industries/ retiring, and Millennials largely don't have the skills or discipline to fill contractor jobs in high value-added defense tech sectors outside of the ones already doing it.
It does suit Gen Z well in many ways as they are extremely introverted and tech-oriented, with a gloomy outlook on life due to the intensity of awareness of instability and being cheated out of the normal childhood carefree experiences of life.
Guys, he's talking about it. The US needs more weapons.
Are we being invaded? (I mean we are, but unfortunately we aren't discussing using weapons to prevent migration of non-Americans.)
@@SamBrickell dude, the US is build on migration.
@@SamBrickelldon’t say stupid shit like that, it discredits the entire position. Watch video and smile at the logistics of war production. Don’t speak politics unless you are making a coherent statement
@@SamBrickell This is a revolting position.
@@dasbaums5842 Yes, it is built on immigrants, but a certain political party, doen't like anyone with a darker skin albedo. Because of historically poor treatment, those same immigrants, when they are able, tend to vote, for the most part, for the opposition. Oh darned!
“And then Vladimir Putin decided to launch his special defense stimulus operation…”
Tex would be proud of that one. Because it is that best of truths. Horrible and terrible . And also hilariously true.
A defense stimulus America can afford... even Europe can afford (after a lot of shouting and wailing)... but Russia simply can't in the long term. Especially with it's refineries exploding.
This was supposed to be a two-week war for Russia. Things aren't easy for Ukraine either, but Russia must bear all the cost of everything alone.
@@LD-OrbsRussia is being helped by China, Iran, and North Korea.
@@LD-Orbs That explains why Gen Cavoli gave his 3,000,000 shells ammunition production in Russia as estimates to the congress on 10 April. Which as he said - equals to 3 times more than 32 NATO countries combined. He also estimated that Russia is producing and/or refurbushing well over 1,200 of tanks per year. Which is even higher than 3 times in comparison to 32 NATO countries.
How about we stop jerking off and get a grip on reality for once? Speaking of refineries. US urged Ukraine to halt these attacks. Must be a coincidence and definitely not because US is a consumer.
Typically those SMO remixes just piss me off. Yours was genius! Hats off, gentlemen. :-)
+like for BPL :)
Basic economics would tell us that a shortage of skilled workers, coupled with a strong demand for their services, would lead to rising wages.
I have a coworker who recently left Electric Boat, and I asked him why they couldn’t find enough welders. He pointed out that a welder couldn’t afford to live near the shipyard, and would face a serious commute each day.
Who knew that affordable housing and paying a decent wage would be national defense issues?
Who knew socialism actually works, eh?
If you want to see a worse case scenario & look at what happens to a country that offshores ALL its industry just look at the UK. Thatcherism was Reaganomics on steroids. The Brits can’t build anything, anymore. And now that they’re out of the EU they’re doubly dependent.
Just like the big warehouse style shops set up round about cities.
@@20chocsaday The Germans did that, they modeled their economy on social democratic concepts, favouring small and medium businesses, those being the true backbone of the German economy, not the corporations. And it worked.
@@carlossaraiva8213 They also got 'guest' workers to increase production. It seemed a good system.
31:06 - I love your idea of “rounding up finance bros and telling them ‘you’re learning to weld now’.”
If youtube videos is anything to go by nobody knows how to weld anyway so they are as good as anyone else ...
@@MorbidEel In WWI, women who were trained as machinists for war production created a failure rate of about 1/3rd in 1916. This was absolutely expected, as the time it takes to train ANY machinist is about 3 years.
The Soviet Union experience...
lets round up the creative writing, fine art, and communications majors and tell them "you're learning to weld now."
@@genericyoutubeaccount579 I think the fine arts students would have a really good welding technique. Practicing fine motor movement is needed skill for welding.
We can save the finance bros for sweeping.
As one who works in the US military industrial complex, here's what I see. We moved to a 70% base of commercial accounts after Cold War. Though we did still do 30% military, the commercial kept us sustained. We do have a go plan for a robust reboot for the military if needed. I even know how my job would change. Recently, the 70-30 has morphed to 60-40. This is far from war footing but was easily done. For my particular little corner of the MIC, we're good to go if needed.
I would suspect it depends on which specific segment a given company is in. If it’s something electronics, clothing, or other related, it can be moved to commercial, 155mm howitzer shells, who else buys those.
@@c1ph3rpunk You can reset production of 155mm to steel-made and maybe hardened products or half-products. Tools, parts of machines etc. The problem with 155mm is actually in building new, very modern production lines.
Everything is done by robots in such places, and those are very expensive.
As another who works in the US military industrial complex, I must admit that I have trouble seeing past the huge dollar signs associated with this shift towards more military spending.
@@HanSolo__well, like Perun said, the problem's in the energetics, right? Who else buys military-grade very high explosive compound? Mining charges are special-made now with their own branch of stable explosives.
@@qdav5 We would be fools not to.
We must construct additional Democracy
For Freedom! For Super Earth!
You require more Natural Gas.
We require additional vespene gas!
Sorry, but All Your Base Are Belong to Us.
Instead of democracy, we fight for christendom, FOR GOD!!
Perun, if you let two marines guard the design documents you'll just end up with beer fridges in APCs, Mameluke sword sheaths in F-35 B cockpits and bayonets on tanks with all edits drawn in crayon.
But that sh*t would _work!_
Ingram -- Marine.
Atchisson -- Marine.
That guy who got the F-22 thrust vectoring to work (identity classified, public credit is diverted to a real f*-up) -- MARINE!
And somehow one of the designs will be pregnant.
@@wingedfreedom6226 LOL. Shots fired!
Only if they are Japanese Marines (the Japanese during WW2 fitted bayonets to heavy machine guns as standard) and all Japanese fighters had sword stowage as standard).
Just tell the primary contractors to ignore the notes written in crayon.
Can confirm that a lot of these machine shops are relying on an older workforce. And their knowledge base is HUGE. I never considered myself lazy always working manual jobs, but I now work with a guy that needs his hip replaced and another that's blind and one eye. But they can troubleshoot and get a machine up so much faster.
40 years of experience will do that.
Yup. My FIL has been in blue-collar jobs for probably 45 years now. My wife went to a very exclusive grad school, and people kind of made fun of him, because their parents were doctors and lawyers. But their parents can barely change a tire, and my FIL could build you a functioning, street legal big-rig from scrap metal on his own. He came from a time where if you needed a skill, you learned how to do it, and your company was glad to have it when you showed up, or they taught you to do it, rather than expecting an entry level person to show up with 5 years of experience, 3 certifications and an associates degree to turn a wrench.
And I work(-ed) in tech, 23 years at Dell. Got laid off for hitting my Fifties. A buddy I graduated highschool with is a machinist at Hughes and they gave him a bonus to keep him. I have three degrees, he has none. Who won that bet, huh?
I just listen for the little gems such as “ cheaper to fire Aston Martins at the enemy “ . Another superb analysis .
As a Canadian, i particularly liked the Line about complimentary Canadian Citizenship
😅😅@@RasAlHaq
If you think the defense workforce is getting old, during COVID financial institutions and governments went scrambling for COBOL programmers to update software from the 60s to deal with the change in benefits and new government programs. I remember seeing one story about someone in their 80s being in demand. He also happened to work with Grace Hopper, who invented COBOL.
We don't have a "defense" workforce or industry. It's all offensive warmaking weaponry to support international full spectrum dominance and domestic population control.
We built this city on COBOL code…
Heh.
I ought to see if one old friend is still alive and well; he was upset in 1993 when none of his community college Programming credits transferred to the university -- the CC only taught COBOL!
My brother made good money maintaining old COBOL programs because so few people are still fluent in that programming language
this is also a little dirty secret of banks. Large banks.
You may have an app on your cellphone, with graphics and colors. But the back end where the data, the transactions, accounts, and the amounts are settled is still in COBOL.
The Yom Kippur War in 1973 generated an understanding of how attritional modern warfare can be. The Russian "SMO" is just the latest event that teaches "He who wants peace, prepares for war".
Next compare the size of the US and Russian military budgets BEFORE the SMO.
Although we should probably take care not to overlearn lessons from Ukraine. That’s more of a case study of what happens when 2 relatively unprepared peer opponents go to war with eachother.
@@gandydancer9710 hey, come on, US isn't ignoring NATO allies and isn't throwing Ukraine, Taiwan and several other countries with "spoken promises" under the bus. They've increased their military budget since 2021... by whole 0,3%🤣
@@TheArklyte You seem to have missed the point of my comment, which was directed at the cliché emitted by the op.
@@gandydancer9710 I indeed had missed your comment having a point, not to mention any connection to OP's one.
Speaking to the five people who will get this reference, the US is like a dormant “Fallen Empire” in Stellaris right now.
Perun out of context, “The first problem […] people tend to want to exercise free will.”
Horses to water, horses heing led to water everywhere... But they don't drink.
Not enough workers with the right skill-sets? Stop requiring 3 years of experience for an entry level job and *train them*
There's never been a clearer cut and dry solution
No kidding. The national Electricians Union has started requiring a bachelor's degree _for Apprentice applicants!_
Agreed 💯 percent. We only need to look back to WWII. Both of my grandparents worked at the torpedo factory in Arlington, Virginia. Prior to hiring on as machinists, their entire life experience was limited to running a small farm. My grandmother became an instructor for women straight out of high school, making guidance gears and other high precision parts for the torpedoes that kept her merchant marine son safe.
And torpedoes were just a small fraction of the output needed to win that war. Think of all of the aircraft, radars, communications equipment and the list goes on. And remember, we were just coming out of a depression where the skill sets needed to accomplish this were in very low demand.
And then there is my personal experience. In the late 70s, I got a job as a drill press operator. Because of some unspecified emergency there was an immediate demand for an operator on a very complex computerized numerical controlled milling machine. While I did have some Vo-Tech classes, this machine was far beyond my capabilities. I was the only person dumb enough to apply for the position. The supervisor spent several shifts bringing me up to speed and turned me loose. In just a few weeks I had mastered the machine to the point that I was able to write programs for it.
Can you imagine the outcome of WWII if today's restrictions were imposed on workers back then?
Private industry HATES it when they’re expected to train their workers for essential national services. We really do need to address this issue.
There are certain problems with that approach. For one, requiring experience shows the applicant has an aptitude for the skill, which a raw unskilled applicant may or may not have. Companies don't want to waste months or years training someone who simply can't do the job.
An example, in an actual prime contractor plant where I worked for 31 years: we had a fairly complex test station which required some ability to operate a computer and to understand details of the test process. The first test operator we were sent due to his union seniority (35 years as a test tech) lasted two months, during which test rates dropped by 50% and defective product leaked through the system. We finally had to tell the production manager that we needed a replacement, so they sent a much younger but more savvy guy (still 5 years experience) who eventually became able to maintain the test station by himself as well as doubling the test rate. Abilities count, a lot.
Yes, test tech was considered an "entry-level" job, but an associates tech degree, relevant experience or tech certificate was required for good reason.
Assemblers, OTOH, needed only a HS diploma.
But then anybody could get the job.
I’d say about 75% of the machinists at the company I work at are going to retire in the next few years or so and with them goes so much irreplaceable know how. It’s weird to finally get a Perun video talking about the same issues I deal with at work.
This is why it is one of his best videos. No one else is talking about these problems in manufacturing
And the fact that the so called “Ukraine aid” bills are more like the aid the American defense industry and also help Ukraine bill. It win-win-win and we still can’t get it done.
That is unfortunate consequence of having a Russian fifth columnist as Speaker of the House…
No joke. I worked at a steel mill for a few months, then to a precision gear factory. No new permanent hires at either, now both have closed.
Yeah it’s a real Peter Zeihan moment. There are not enough workers entering the market.
As a reservist in a DLA unit, thanks for the shout out Perun. Not many people know we exist, but like many things in the world, its the background logistics that keep things going.
Ah, the DeLAy!
Sincerely my best regards; not your fault everything went to sh*t!
@@davidgoodnow269nah they made sure the right amount of everything got to each shit at the right time.
Ah yes, the glorious Sunday PowerPoint. My weekend is now complete.
Perun is packing his bags for his upcoming Middle East special.
Could this include something about how the war on the tunnels is going?
@@nickcharles1284special operations bot detected.
@@nickcharles1284 Is defense analysis a new means of promoting war or what the charge is there?
If you don't like war, you should prepare for them instead of ignoring the matter entirely.
@herptek si vis pacem, para bellum
@@TeeBar420 In the last 150 years the US has never been 'preparing for war'; it simply has been at war. And for the last 80 years it has been fomenting wars abroad, and losing them. Kicked out of Vietnam. Kicked out of Iraq. Kicked out of Afghanistan,. And now its latest proxy, Ukraine, is being destroyed. What in this long sordid history makes you think the US is capable of maintaining a peace through constant warfare?
For those wondering, cobalt-samarium alloys are used to make more robust, but more expensive and slightly less powerful rare earth magnets than neodymium-based ones that are more commonly used nowadays.
Thanks! I was thinking the only place I had seen it was in orbital radio-telescope satellites and maybe space probes!
whats the utility of that?
@@correctionguy7632The majority of the supply of neodymium comes from China… (and China will only export finished magnets).
@@correctionguy7632 Well, if you need the corrosion resistance and higher resistance to demagnetisation for long-term storage, or magnet working in much wider temperature range. Also, they were (I think) the first type to be mass-produced, so some older stuff may simply have them because that's what was available.
In 2013, I seriously looked into an Advanced Manufacturing training program, it would of meant 1 yr full time heavy duty skills training...Then I found out, I'd only make $2 an hr more than working in a grocery store pushing carts...so obviously I took another path. People aren't going to invest their time money and effort into acquiring a skill set, if they can't predict a profitable return on those efforts
That's the problem I have the current push for manfucturing in the US. They say they want workers but the payscale pails in comparison to doing Tech Bros 'grunt work'. If it was about the money, I'd run to Austin's video game studios and get $10-15K more a year there than manfacturing here in OH. Literally the only things stopping me is I don't want to grind myself into the ground troubleshooting the latest looter shooter and my family is all up here.
For all the "sudden demand" for blue collar workers, truck drivers etc. No one is offering substanal improvements in take home pay and benefits. if you want money, beyond your wildest dreams become a C-suite. If you want good pay for skills, become a tech worker in certain areas. If you want to draw and pay the rent become a fashionable designer. And if your a loser with no other prospect, work with literally anyone who just flew into the country last week with minimal English skills, pull car parts off the line for barely enough to pay for a 1 bedroom in Columbus right now. It may be almost interchanagable with food service and retail save for a little more pay, standard healthcare package and a solid start time.
Frankly, I'm just planning on catching up on self care/dental work this year before hitting the job market again next year, Cause Its a lot of work for not a lot of free time, or extra money. Who knows, maybe I will take up some defenxe work provided it has Union payrate. Otherwise refreshing my computer skills going into tech/office work is probably what I'm going to do. By the incentives on the table, moving to the factory making MANPADS doesn't rate that high as a young American worker.
lol you were lied to, I have a associates degree in manufacturing and have made much more than any cart pusher could dream of.
I don't know about that, I see touch labor jobs at $45/hr in defense factories. I've never seen that in a grocery store without a college degree.
@@stevejdickey Pretty much this. People overplayed the "Manufacturing doesn't pay enough." Meme till now there is people stupid enough to think it. An example I can think of is was a test done where people did a survey to figure out what the estimated average yearly pay in certain manufacturing work was vs. the actual pay. The average person thought the average wage for manufacturing work with a two year degree was 62,000$ or so. When the actual number was closer to 97,000$.
Sir, this is a Wendy's.
Alright I'll have 6 billion burgers then.
but what if it's a Hooters ?
Then I’ll have the dyspepsia with a side order of uncomfortableness…
As they say, an army marches on its stomach.
@@seneca983 I don't think feeding them something that'll have them dying in a few days is quite what they meant by that.
@@bloodlustshiva1 You're a Frenchman, aren't you? Always slandering fine American cuisine! (JK)
"but in the interest of time, and because even my audience starts to hit its limit when you begin discussing things like contract authorities"
Perun dont threaten us with a goodtime mate.
indeed, I feel slightly insulted.
"the adcap is what the us navy came up with to fight soviet subs that do 30 knots submerged and can dive so deep they accidentally find the set for the next meg movie"
😂😂😂😂 i love peruns sense of humor
I’m 32 and out of touch. What is a meg movie?
@@extragoogleaccount6061 'The Meg' is the name of a shark movie from 2018. Sort of like an updated version of "Deep blue sea"
@@extragoogleaccount6061 Megalodon, giant prehistoric shark. Every once in a while, a tooth washes ashore (in real life), but only identified due to fossils, much like the occasional kraken tentacle washes up on Icelandic or Argentina's or New Zealand's shores.
The movie is _The Meg._
“The Akula is passing below the layer, sir! Also, uh, we’re getting a third-party transmission on a secure channel! I think….It sounds like Jason Statham, sir!”
“Here we go again. Lieutenant, maintain course and bearing. Is tube number 4 still clear?”
“Yes, sir. Do you want me to load another Mark 48?”
“Yes, Lieutenant, thank you. I suspect we’re going to have to blow up a bloody big shark sometime in the very near future…”
“Sir?”
“A fish a fish, man. Make it so. God I hate sequels…”.
As a recently graduated engineer who got a DoD job out of college, there has NEVER been a better time to get into the defense industry. I got an offer after just one phone interview, and from my understanding there’s no cap on the amount of engineers we’ll hire, as long as you have a bachelors degree in engineering (or for interns, pursuing one), are a US citizen and have a clean criminal record. I’m fairly certain this hiring frenzy is also applying to blue collar jobs (eg Artisans) too.
I’ve seen a TH-cam ad for job training to build submarines several times. It made welding look pretty damn sexy (I mean sexier than it already is).
Yup.
But for some reason, I know experienced Marine Electricians who say that the Union is requiring all new Apprentice applicants to already have a Bachelors Degree . . . in any subject, but a Baccalaureate, to pull wires, dig ditches, and weld!
@@davidgoodnow269 yeah that’s definitely pretty stupid, technician work really just needs a lot of hands on experience. Part of our team includes former Marines and Sailors who install the equipment we work with, and their knowledge is indispensable, definitely not something you can learn in college.
@@MarcosElMalo2 If you're the kind of person who thinks a pretty weld can be outright sexy... why the heck don't you take them up on the offer? My wife's cousin (who has Asbergers) has a trade degree in metal fabrication and ended up going down the welding rabbit hole. His base salary is basically dictated by how many certifications he holds (which is a lot), and because he can weld a rubber band to a stick of dynamite, and have it pass X-ray inspection, he A) earns more than most engineers, and B) ever only gets to do the interesting shit.
@@davidgoodnow269 gotta support the indoctrination.... I mean, 'higher education', grift you know. Can't let useless commissars, I mean, 'professors', go hungry now can we?
In terms of logistics supply Poland is a major supplyer of TNT for the US. Because the DoD came when we entered NATO to see what stuff we had to offer and when they saw how good and pure our TNT was they decided they wanted some for filling artillery shells.
The image of US DOD officials meeting some Polish firm representative in some dark alley way, using a crowbar to open a wooden box, and sniffing how pure those TNT are.
Must be for export, almost all of the U.S. military's own shells, bombs, etc. have been RDX since the Second World War was going on!
I know that, because they accidentally contaminated the Ogallala Aquifer that supplies four States, and got caught covering it up! They had to pay for well purification equipment and ongoing maintenance of it to everyone pulling from that aquifer.
@@jintsuubest9331 Tasting it! Tasting it! Maybe snorting a little!
Old Polish jokes "Poles can't do the most basic of tasks" New Polish Jokes "Nato is keeping Poland on a leash to keep it from Obliterating Russia in a revenge fueled rage" Needless to say, we Americans love the Poles 😁
@@Pupil0fGod1610 shall rise again!
I have never heared a more cool job destription than "nuclear welding"
tRump Prosecutor?
@@bj6515yeah man that's so cool. Almost as cool as being lgbtq and rioting for Gazans
@@bj6515 Prosecutor of political enemies tends to be highly satisfying job, however in countries where this job position is available there is high turnover and high risk of being purged in next round.
I hope these are paid trolls. Because otherwise I just have to accept that this is humanity now.
I heard "Arsenal of Democracy" and *came* as fast as I could.
That's what she said
I edged mysf as long as I could, but as usually, Perun made me bust in mere seconds
Gentlemen: It's a sunday!😚
Quickly turned off rule Britannia and turned on anchors away!!!
Propaganda is effective
"Arsenal of Democracy" makes me feel super patriotic and I'm not even American
“Complimentary Canadian citizenship” as a Canadian soldier that really hit the spot 😂
Would you ever consider doing a video on the downfalls of Canadian DIB and procurement?
Was that joke about draft dodgers during Vietnam war?
@@janne9034 No I believe it was a joke about how if you waste enough money on poor and inefficient military procurement processes you can be awarded an honorary Canadian citizenship. Because our procurement system is iconically terrible.
Where would you end?
@@Muljinn how do you mean?
@@nunyabzwax6353 How dare you. I'll have you know that giving your military shipbuilding contracts to a shipyard that does not have the facilities, workforce, or experience to fulfill the contract is a perfectly legitimate procurement strategy.
I bet you're one of those crazies that think that building our mechanized infantry force around a lightly armoured vehicle from the "Global War on Terror" era is a terrible idea, I'll have you know that our TAPVs will be augmented by a full fleet of LAV-6s within the next half century.
Just you wait and see, the RCAFs 12 fighter pilots and 3 fighter jet maintainers will have our fleet of 88 F-35s fully operational on schedule.
A predictable cycle. Private industry doesn’t invest in things you’re not willing to buy at a rate large enough to sustain capability and at a profit. If Uncle Sam isn’t asking for it, private industry isn’t going to maintain it. They can’t afford it and if they could, they won’t.
We will be here again in the future as we have been in the past.
Exactly why Springfield Arsenal should not have been forced to go private, among others.
The joke about Canadian procurement dysfunction makes me hopeful about a full video on it. Let the rest of the world know about our procurement incompetence!
Or British assault rifles.
@@20chocsaday Canada started the Sea King (naval helicopter) replacement project in 1983. The measly 28 replacements are expected to be fully delivered in 2025, 42 years later. Of course instead of ordering known good military helicopters that other countries like the USA use, Canada decided to customize a civilian aircraft model, which all promptly had to be pulled from service due to all of them developing cracks. Did I mention that even though we haven't received the last few helicopters yet, they're already considered obsolete and in desperate need of modernization upgrades? Meanwhile, Denmark decided to replace some of their helicopters in 2010, selected the Seahawk (The same on the US Navy uses) in 2012, and got their final helicopter delivered in 2018.
You guys are dueling with Germany! Who can make the most bureaucratic bumbles fastest!
'Special Global Defence Demand Stimulus Program' had me absolutely creasing. Perun proves yet again that he is an apex predator of sarcasm and wit
"Proprietory Standards"
*picture of a Lightning Cable*
"image unrelated"
Chef kiss.
As much as I loathe Apple, at least with that example, if I buy 100 iPhones and 100 zig zag but slow cables, odds are, I will have 100 phones all charging and/or backing up to whatever the apple backup thingie is. Time warp, or whatever. And if I agree to bump up the buy to 1,000, I will even get those things at a cheaper price. If, on the other hand, I buy 100 Lightnings...of the F-35 variety, and 100 of the latest block upgrades.....how many working F-35s will I have? And if I agree to up the number to 1000....I pay more?
@@LackofFaithify If only 100 F-35s had been built or were going to be built, the price per aircraft would be much higher than it is now. The program hasn't been without issues and some of them still persist, but getting such an advanced plane to be as cheap as it is it and build it in serious volume is a major achievement.
The whole idea we could fight a war out of preexisting inventory plus an ability to replace yearly expenditures for training is a lunatic idea.
Yeah I feel like a lot of militaries also underestimate the amount of supplies specifically like ammo and stuff they are going to need
@@smokedbeefandcheese4144when the government doesn’t want to spend money on it’s military it can do what Britain did in the 1930s and decide there won’t be another war in the next ten years so they don’t need to. Just make sure all the other guys agree to this.
That merger chart is absolutely frightening.
Isn't it. And how does it compare to what the russians did, for the 'smo', but after the yeltsin years and all that. They've managed to crank it up beyong needing washing machines or shovels etc to not run out of missiles. Some thinking went into that.
Try reading about old British defence firms. They almost all end up part of BAe eventually.
@@henrikoldcorn We, the government, don't need aircraft. You can organise yourselves into the three companies we may deal with, through the one company.
The future for defence of this country is rocketry. We will request designs from the remaining company next month.
Supermarine was already Vickers. The famous names of the aircraft manufacturers lingered as names. The joint company BAC was eventually BAe.
So tales of work mothers and fathers had done were in their children's history lesson.
It is something that Biden’s DoD is actively trying to reverse, as I understand it. Biden has explicitly fingered defense contractor consolidation as a major driver of U.S. defense spending costs. His logic isn’t hard to follow: Perun did so himself.
@@JohnMulleeSukhoi, MiG, Yakovlev, and Tupolev have all been the same company for several years now.
"Take it to the extreme, and you might even get complimentary Canadian citizenship."
Oof... that'll leave a bruise.
Accurate though…
@@Muljinn Ayup.
(comes with a fully-funded interdepartmental committee to focus-group a response to the bruising!)
Near where I live, in Wisconsin, they used to be a giant ammunition factory. It was called badger ammunition. At one point it supplied the United States with 1/3 of its ball powder for artillery shells.
And it was sold to a corporate party that was supposed to keep it viable but let it degrade then deemed it was too expensive to ever reopen and sold the land off! At a huge profit!
I was US Army Captain in USAEUR at the time of the Peace Dividend and was astounded at how deep the cuts were on not just procurement, but training, support and logistics.
I felt it was shear madness then and still think so now. It's as if the Defense Department had forgotten every single post war era in European history and trod the same path of un-preparedness.
Repeating history verbatim is a thing.
Congress critters are not noted for their depth of historical knowledge
@@kenweipert7926 Many are not knowledgeble about basic things. During an eclipse gathering, Maxine Waters educated the crowd that the sun was hot and the moon was made of gas. So, what hope is there they would understand something as complicated as history. Half of Congress probably believe the Civil War was fought against Britain. Since the creation of the Dept. Of Eucations, under Carter, our education system is going downhill.......going for the gold in a soap box derby.
The Defense Department doesn't control the budget and spending. That's the OMB doing the PRESBUD and Congress passing the NDAA w/o a lot of politically motivated special adds.
@@kenweipert7926 The discussion in the early 1990's was literally "The End of History." Democracy won, and there would be no more wars.
as it was, the US could not sustain the level of military spending from the 1980s, unless there was an active military threat on par with the (then defunct) USSR.
It was madness, but we can't make Saturn V rockets, either, because we didn't NEED them for decades.
"Math-error percent" is the best way to state this I've ever heard. I love this channel.
I'm always surprised to find you are able to keep my adhd mind focused for more than an hour with a PowerPoint presentation. You not only do it occasionally, but consistently, week after week.
Thank you for your effort. It must be a challenge to make these and still have a life. Your efforts are not in vain, we (the youtube community) have learned a lot.
I also have ADHD. What is often unreported in media and common knowledge about the condition is that ADHD doesnt just make our attention scatter but it also make us HYPER-FOCUSED if something caughts our interest. I am sure in your life there's things you can fpend a long time in eithout you notiving time passing by. It can be playing a videogame, an hobby, bingewatching an entire tv show, doing a task st your job you will not quit until you finish it, excercise, whatever. ADHD doesnt make us scattered brain but also super-focused too. In your case, Perum's videos.
@carlossaraiva8213 Generally, I hyperfocus with manual labor, playing Legos with my children, or playing video games. I think Perun holds my attention by presenting topics from a perspective I don't experience.
Mostly, I am impressed with his ability to make such great content for years without quality slipping or just walking away from it. Maybe it's easier for neuro typical people. But, he still has my respect.
As a defense contractor, i am deeply passionate about military industrial programs.
WAKE UP EVERYONE! NEW PERUN VIDEO!
Yes, I'm up
Legitimately do not understand why such a dry Powerpoint presentation get me so excited every week. Like, I guess it just tickles the geopolitics and war economics part of my monkey brain
All the Mechwarrior fans cheered again in a Perun Video for mentioning Losttech
Complimentary Canadian Citizenship; as a Canadian I laughed, then cried for a while...a long while. Great video as always!
Standardization vs customization, build in-house or buy off-the-shelf, pursuit of unnecessary perfection, scope creep, delayed delivery of stuff that's not working at all, etc... In my experience in the IT department of a large financial institution the stories are exactly the same
We could learn a lot from America’s military engineering philosophy during the first half of the 20th century. We were, for the most part, gradualists and incrementalists but we were also (usually) smart enough to take advantage of the square-cube law & build shit that had a lot of room for future technology. We didn’t build tanks, ships & planes around untested bullshit but we made sure that our weapon systems could accommodate upgrades & new technology when & if it became available.
I know the Sec. of the Navy recently went to South Korea to take a tour of their shipbuilding facilities and was amazed to when they could show to the day when a ship would be delivered and had everything digitized and full accounting of all parts at all times and the ability to track when they were being installed and everything in a central system. We should be utilizing them to build a few ships for us as much as possible for a while....it feels like the Navy is probably furthest behind out of all the branches in regards to output / procurement at the moment.
As a participant of the DIB it’s very hard as young professional, to get promoted, as all the middle and senior jobs are being held by former cold warriors not really focussed on the business but rather the pension.
The only way to get ahead is to get in at the start of a program.
Hey FYI, the 'Kings and Generals' channel gave Perun a shout-out on their latest Ukraine war update. Congrats on over 500,000 subscribers! You'll hit 1,000,000 before you know it.
Simple: Build Infrastructure in your best ressource states, and build a shit ton of mils after a couple of focuses
the first one I thought was legit,
the second one I thought was sus
the third point solidified my suspicions
I think you might be a HOI4 player
du fuq?
Proceed to run out of building slots in 1941
So where is Australia in this equation. China is looking to buy up minerals elsewhere. If America is smart they should buy up land and our companies for their war machine when the market collapses
@@davidgoodnow269 Hearts of Iron 4 refference
Dude your videos are ridiculous, I am just blown away by long and how detailed they are. That is a compliment when I say ridiculous. Keep it up man, I hope you can keep up the pace because I know you are working very, very hard on these videos
Man, I would watch THE FUCK out of an “economic deterrence” video.
Excellent presentation. I watched in horror as the US industrial manufacturing base declined from the 1970's.
The military industrial complex used to be a lot bigger.
Hollowing out the working class has had a devastating effect.
Powerpoint squad assemble!
Hey looks like you were the first comment by 2 seconds
Are we working with or against the Powerpuff girls?
PowerPoint Rangers, is that you?!!
@@tangentreverent4821 More like "FOR"...;)
Sorry to be so late guys butttt my "Mr. Coffee" machine was acting up.
It’s almost as if all of us that watched all of this happen over the past 3 decades, and said “this is a colossally bad idea” were right.
Wait ‘til you do some digging and find out how bad the cyber space of this really is. Conflicts now use a cyber component, both offensively and defensively, and there’s a massive shortage of that talent. The talent that is there ISN’T in the military.
I work in the tech sector. We are so hysterically vulnerable because we're undermanned AF.
As soon as I heard about “The peace dividend” and “The end of history”, I knew we were just in the interim between another major round or conflicts. GWOT was a distraction orchestrated by major powers looking to throw the US off-base so they could prepare for territorial expansion in the wake of force reductions and combat power wasted in dead-end campaigns.
And the talent that isnt in the military is being laid off
Not sure how true it is, but apparently America has if not all then most of the best cyber personnel in various different three letter agencies and intelligence organizations. One of the reasons we have such great intelligence, like how we knew that Russia would invade, how they would do it, and when they would do it, as well as telling Russia about the terrorist attack before it happened (only to be ignored because Russia). Could be wrong however.
@@madmonkeys88 It's true that there *are* highly skilled people employed at such places . . . and *that's where they are kept.* Nobody working *actual* _defense_ is so skilled; they get drafted (Yes, sometimes literally, with a National Security Letter "Notice of Draft," so that there's no legal option, and no public awareness. Alternatively, there's the, "Underground Super-Max cell, or underground cell at a Secure Facility, your choice," and, of course, parallel employment (Agency placement program in a startup or ongoing business.)
But those are all *_looking,_* surveillance not defense. The goal since the end of the Cold War has been *maximize insecurity, maximize penetration, maximize **_access._* That has been extensively documented for decades, basically since the Y2K bug drew large-scale wide-spread inspection of all code, with the occasional nudge thanks to WikiLeaks.
I remember when this channel had around 30k subscribers.
And now almost 517k.
That speaks volumes on the quality of the content and the subjects of said content.
Well done Sir!
p.s. there are other forums I'm on and I always suggest yours as another avenue for facts and content.
Keep up the great work!
Really happy to see Pavel and his mates make an appearance again.
"Scope creep" In the 1970's we used to refer to it as "Creeping featurism" Sigh ! Some things never change
In the UK we used to call it. Every single project commissioned by the MOD!!
Any ideas about how to minimize it? Is there a way to front load it to lock in designs?
@@MarcosElMalo2 Politics! Get a very public end date and a trained chorus of analysts who at every suggested modification suck air in through their teath and then harmonise: "Impacts the end date".
Only ever happened on one project I was on - yes, we implemented the original design and yes, it was on time.
Be like PC, not Apple.
@@MarcosElMalo2during the first half of the 20th century our naval design philosophy, at least, was much more incrementalist. We did tend to favor designs that allowed for future technological developments when they arose but we did not, as a rule, build ships, planes, and tanks around magical tech that didn’t exist yet. The Washington and London Naval treatises DID complicate things by strictly limiting tonnage but we usually found a workaround.
I can never sleep on a sunday night until i get Perun's weekly slide pack.
So basically Putin spiked world tension too high, and now the US gets to take “The Giant Wakes” focus.
So, basically, if you are in a manufacturing adjacent field or interested in manufacturing, this is a good time to get into manufacturing.
I've been hearing that from my parents for years, but this really hammers the point home.
Even if you don't want to work for the government, when the government snaps up workers, that will amplify the demand in civilian fields.
That MIDD joke had me rolling. Like you said with ATACMS, acronyms have power.
I'd love to see a South Korean ship builder open a shop here in the US. The big concern with relying on SK manufacturing is that they are so vulnerable.
That is why they are keen to make good friends with the West as quickly as possible. Interdependency is a strong force when it comes to common enemies.
We need to just build some shipyards and then go recruit in high schools. Gen Z is actually going into vocational schools at a significantly renewed pace. Turns out young men don't want to go to gynocentric colleges to be told they are evil and so they are putting on tool belts again just like their grandfathers. So give them highly skilled manufacturing jobs, pay them well, and let them start families again. Everyone wins.
@@RJT80 As a millennial, this makes me happy to see the next generation isn't getting screwed by college loans like we did.
@@RJT80First of all, FO with your bs sexist ideology and vocabulary. Second, we need a restructuring of post secondary education with less emphasis on four year humanities degrees and much more emphasis on advanced vocational training. For example, combine welding with materials science in a two or three year degree program + 1 year or more of apprenticeships. We want both workers that understand the science and engineering and engineers that understand real world work processes.
I think we agree on what the goals should be, but also drop your stupid trolol edge lording. You’re not triggering anyone, you’re just making the conversation harder. Grow up and get serious.
@@Gnomezonbacon pure cope. Tuition at technical colleges has ballooned just as well. There is no escaping modernity.
Perun should be required viewing in the US federal house and senate
YES, ABSOLUTELY REQUIRED.
The big elephant in the room is of course the strange idea of the USA to move it's industry to China. This move made few Americans rich, but greatly boosted the rise of China. We have no comparison to that in history. Only Venice was in a similar strange relation with the Turkish Empire. While vying the Venetians did do lucrative trade with the Turks and in fear of losing it for good they let many promising military opportunities go. Like the reconquest of Cyprus in the wake of the epic battle of Lepanto.
I feel like when it comes to manufactured goods the EU, UK and US should all reach an agreement for fair or free trade of manufactured goods while all agreeing to high Tarrifs against China and similar nations using unfair trading practices such as slave labor or extremely below global average pay rates.
@@dominuslogik484 That would be wise. But I fear that it is to late for such a policy now.
Why should nations who equally profit from their relationship with China agreeing on high tariffs? But I agree on applying it to countries using unfair trading policies, and unfair policies as a whole, such as the USA.
For most of Europe and the worlds’ nations the trading with China is beneficial, while they suffer from unfair policies and even sanctions from the USA. Most of the world is clear on which party it is better with.
Heck of a spot. A few more gazillionaires and devastated manufacturing and manufacturing jobs. But, 75" flat screens are as low as $700. Sadly, America itself would have crumbled if we hadn't starting outsourcing. No one but ourselves, and only a select few of us could afford to pay for all the new fangled crap, if we made it. I wouldn't buy a $4,000 smart phone. Or a $14,000 tv. Neither would most of the planet. It went too far is all. Like how Cyber Infrastructure (Computer Switching Technology, Huawei/China) got involved.
@@brunol-p_g8800Nobody believes that except for the Chinese.
Honestly I love all the references to internet culture complementing you world class way of presenting information
"Sir, this is a Wendy's". I rofl'd ;)
Frogman Pavel launching Mark 42 is also a gem
The US should help build up shipbuilding capacity in places like Galveston, Corpus Christi, and Houma, places that already do heavy marine engineering/manufacturing for deepwater oil exploration. Places that already have large dry dock facilities and port facilities.
Do we really want to emphasize heavy displacement vessel force structure in a world of proliferating Unmanned Systems? Those killer drone boats that have crippled a lot of Russia's Black Sea fleet would keep me up at night if I was a SWO.
@@LRRPFco52As impressive as Ukraine's sea drone program had been, it's equally a matter of Russian naval incompetence.
Small speedboat threats have been a major concern for a long time and modern NATO ships are pretty good at handling them. CWIS can aim downward for a reason.
@@ToastyMozart Agreed. CIWS is Radar-guided and I think they have upgraded it to improved sea scan/surface threat intercept. Saturation attacks are enough to overwhelm and deplete the self-protection systems on large naval vessels.
The west coast needs more ship building infrastructure. Especially since US is expanding its Pacific LUSV ghost fleet.
@@everypitchcounts4875 if you're talking about California...good luck. It takes 2 years to get a Mcdonalds permitted there.
Being ready for a war when it happens essentially means doing all the work of fighting a low-grade war all the time. Armies fight as they train; industries produce as they have been built to produce. There is no shortcut.
Sic pacem para bellum
I remember when the last US shipyard for destroyers was closed.
BRACs were a big thing in the 1990s.
After the Cold War ended, it really did look like the need for huge military forces and production was over.
The manufacturing company I work for has seen massive growth since the pandemic and Ukraine war from companies onshoring.
You provide better analysis than most PAID journalists .. We live in clown world.. you should be on the news explaining stuff to people and providing thought process and how to achieve that. Love your content .
"complimentary Canadian citizenship" thanks, I'm deeply hurt but also shout laughing in my house
Perun. for as much as you joke that intricate procurement management would be lethal to your channel. If a 4 hour video on April 1st dropped with the title "Acquisition Policy of Bill C9174 - How Rhinemetal's ownership of IPR 247A4 may stunt the 'Zeitenwende' " I swear, a depressing number of people would watch the whole thing.
Would it be largely in German with subtitles?
Asking for a friend.
When you wrote "depressing", I'm sure you meant "encouraging"; Right?
@@thekinginyellow1744 during the four hours. I'd be depressed how interested I was watching it 😆
That Samarium-Cobalt alloy, when used as tracer composition is the best(I mean, the best) blue color. So totally totally vital to Liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Most Americans have a very low degree of respect of jobs that can be called manual labor, but I have learned in my life that while there are lots of jobs anyone can do, most of them are jobs that to do really well requires a great deal of concentration and skill. You won't find the workers that can do these jobs with outstanding performance both in time and quality is no easy thing. When I worked for a company that sold and installed replacement windows, the install manager could always find someone who would install windows and make a relatively basic income, but he had one crew that could install six times the number of windows per day that the other crews could install and could make six times the amount of money.
Thank you - I had noticed some sort of fundamental shift in the 90s, above and beyond peace dividend and general procurement issues, something that didn't seem to get reversed in later decades. I had not seen that "last supper" chart (4:10) previously, and that explains so much. I knew capacity had reduced, I knew labor had reduced, but I hadn't seen how dramatically the number of companies had reduced.
Or, in my head hearing this in your voice, "Synergy from mergers is all well and good, but it's hard to destroy a tank by dropping a new org chart on it."
OMG in my graduate job as a naval architect I am required to encourage STEM subjects and I am very very big on doing that to primary school kids. Getting Uni students to join [redacted] doesn't help the economy or the MIC it only helps the shareholders. Whereas, getting little Soffie to want to become a fitter and turner helps everyone.
For Managed Democracy boys! ...Erm, I mean, I never miss a Perun power point.
FOR SUPER EARTH!!! FOR DEMOCRACY!!!!!
@@CruelandCold Remember the creek
We need more gallons of sweet liberty!
"We want it all! Speed, Capacity, Scalability, Now!"
"You're insane. Clinically, measurably disassociated from reality, on every level."
The only way to manage that is hyper deficit spending (more so than normal) or extreme austerity that would be marked by local rebellions.
And that's assuming China continues to supply America with massive excesses of industrial capacity.
Great video. As far as the section where you’re talking about people choosing to work in the defense industrial base, I can say having worked for it for the last 20 years, it’s a great career. Even without a college degree, A college degree, I got my first six digit salary when I was in my mid-20s. Both the Great Recession of 2008, and the Covid crisis had zero impact on my job stability.
Of course, to make it further, you do need a degree, but it’s a good career.
I was the last one out of are manufacturing building. In 1992 we where no longer needed, and the navy did not need what we were making anymore. I know the pain that caused, I personally took a 15 dollar per hour pay cut, all of my friends also went through similar things, a lot of them lost their houses, some lost their families, well over one million high payed, well trained people lost their jobs in just a matter of months. In some ways it was worse than having a war. But we were told we would now have peace in the world. You all know how well that worked out.
That's about 20 years after many miners in Britain were thrown out of the pits and the big steelworks started shutting down in Britain.
It didn't much affect the South, but how do you retrain a miner to make ladies' bras ?
It was their wives and girlfriends who kept these jobs.
My father worked for Grumman over a 30 year career as a mechanical design engineer, designing parts of the Apollo program's LEM, building the F-14, wings for the space shuttle and his final major project was the TMAAP (tele-operated, mobile anti-armor platform or the "killer golf cart" around our dinner table). I suspect the Army is rueing the day it opted not to invest more resources into that program. Our son currently works for NG, and we have frequently reminded him that the US will always need people to keep the arsenal of democracy well-stocked. I've already sent him the link to this phenomenal presentation.
Our daughter chose a career in art (sigh)- but we're hopeful her talent will be applied to illustrating the operation manuals for various weapon platforms... 😉
Tell her to go to the Joe Kubert school. Army still hires its grads to cartoon its PMCS manuals.
Refreshing a channel homepage to get my weekly fix?
How low the great can fall...
Well, you aren't the only one.
You say that, but I'd say this is very much more value additive than waiting for something like a new episode of Keeping Up With the Kardashians
our weekly dose of perun's slideshow 🙂
love me sum of that numbers on a screen for 1 hour straight
In one of his videos, Chieftain mentioned "educational contracts" that the US Army used in the 1930s. The Army would go to a firm that manufactured mechanical devices--cash registers, jukeboxes, auto parts, stuff like that--and give them a contract for some small quantity of military kits--say, 1,000 .45 caliber automatic pistols. The government would pay for all the costs of tooling and training and pay enough per unit that the manufacturer made money on the production. In return, the manufacturer had to store the tooling and agree to pull it out and start making pistols again on demand. Is the US doing anything like this now? If not, should it?
US did that during the pandemic. A lot of small breweries across the country switched to making hand sanitizer & stuff like that. Some companies started making masks, covid test kits the list goes on & on. The same thing can be done for military purposes.
Part of the problem is that weapons have gotten a helluva a lot more complicated & expensive. You could build a basic rifle or pistol with that kind of approach. Not so much a smartbomb. The manufacturing model is also a lot different; a few sophisticated factories churn out a majority of one item. There isn't a wide "base" to invest in as there was in the 1940's.
@@everypitchcounts4875 Sure, for cheap/disposable stuff.
It could be done with modern ord., but only on a massive, tiny scale. A building
plan spread over many small shops, over all of N. America, assembled in likely
regional plants. It may resemble some end of WW 2 German production, but
without unpaid slaves.
@@robertsolomielke5134 Has there been any other project like that? The only thing can think of is the F35 program, and even that isn't quite the same thing.
One of the side effects of the draw down in US Defense spending is that Bumblfrack USA, population 1002, has a well armed tactical response force in its local PD backed up by another in the local Sheriff's office backed up by various state task forces. Whether our community needs militarized Police or Andy Griffith is up to you.
Back in 1939 Knudsen ( the Big Boss at GM) was brought in by FDR to plan for the USA’s future DIB if (or when) she entered WW2.
He stated it would take 6 months to plan, 6 months to build plant and get machine tools and 6 months to get the work force and train them up.
All this nicely worked out by December 7th 1940.
I fear a bit of foresight has been missing here…
Problem is, modern stuff is infinitely more complex that WW2 stuff. Much harder to incubate workforce capable of doing that. Also one of the reasons why Russia and others like it are falling behind in miltec - much easier to copy a Nene or a b-29, than, say, an f-35.
Can’t be the arsenal of democracy when congress refuses to move 😡
Great video as always though!
That is essentially what happened the first time around. The 1940 Act starting the mobilization of American resources towards a potential war and the Lend-Lease Act were bitterly contested in Congress and both pass by hairline majority..
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 i don't think half of Congress was openly bought by our adversaries at the time, unlike our GOP now
US Defense spending increased every year since 1995. A lot of the WWII era contractors were organized crime pork barrel feeders enabled by Mafia plants throughout Congress.
JFK tried taking on that pork barrel waste already in the early 60s and was looking at appointing Thomas D'Alessandro Jr.
The Italian mobsters were still trying to weasel in one of their stooges into the program to protect their rackets, so they sent D'Alessandro Jr., who brought his daughter along for the visit.
You know her as Nancy Pelosi.
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 but it passed. Today we have a “peace candidate” that controls the spineless Republican conference through fear of primaries.
@@theotherohlourdespadua1131 The Nazis had sympathizers in Congress back then and today we have Russian sympathizers in Congress.
the US people arent ready to shift from a commerical based economy to a wartime one which is what is needed to properly fight the wars that are on the horizon. It would take a major shift in collective thinking to get everyone onboard with this.
And leadership/motivation. Something that is significantly lacking as we head into yet another divisive and probably hair-thin election season.
I say..."wait and see"
its mind boggling to me that after offshoring most manufacturing from the west to asia etc, people are shocked that we dont have the ability to manufacture. manufacturing capacity is national security. not just for war, but for any supply chain issues. you can rely on raw materials that you dont have coming from elsewhere, but labour you always have. you should make that a large priority in any serious nation.
If you'd asked 13 year old me, I absolutely would have said I wanted to make precision guided munitions when I grow up. Mainly because it sounds cool, but also because "influencer" wasnt a thing back then.
Influencers are useless to society.
This all gives me great optimism for my future employment prospects.
A big problem of the US (and Europe) is that it cannot force people to do things no matter how much money it can throw at them, and like you said defense manufacturing is not exactly a career path many are interested in (the younger generation doesn't want to have anything to do with wars, among other things). Then there are countries like Russia and China that will absolutely force anyone with a remotely relevant profession to work in military production - the famous drone assembly lines by random engineering students and even migrant workforce are one anecdotal example. The arsenal of democracy does have a bit of a problem with the democracy part of it. That might require more innovative solutions than just mechanically ramping up production in the 20th century way of doing things.
I however think the problem has a 2nd dimension. Back in the day, it was relatively easy to retool manufacturers and skills of their employees. As an example one can give a typewriter manufacturer making rifles, or a small local seaplane maker getting a superfortress to build. Today however i think that it might be way harder to switch production like that no matter what. I don't think a guy working on making a 777 max can just start making the raptor in a matter of days or weeks. Ford factory would be hard to switch to manufacturing uranium infused front armour from lightweight aluminium bumpers. So counting on a quick wartime production rampup is quite impossible in todays day and age, looking at the technology required to produce these systems, rather than those systems themselves.
If the pay is good, people will come. Perhaps some fields pay better than many think, but let’s be honest, a lot of the skilled trades do not pay enough to pull young professionals off whatever path they are on.
That bumper ain't even aluminum, it's plastic molded in Mexico.
To get the skilled workers _who can get and keep their mouths shut_ would require returning to an entirely different society, starting by no later than age 8, with the completely different schooling, interests, encouragement, and above all, *trust in society and country.* A basic core _faith,_ as certain as relion has God!
So . . . assuming we start now . . . we can _start_ training that new workforce _in ten years._
@@extragoogleaccount6061 We don't need "skilled professionals." We need _to make_ skilled professionals.
We *don't* need "community activist" barista gamers, we need people who have _skin in the game!_
@@davidgoodnow269blind nationalism!! the exact same mindset that lead us into vietnam and all the useless proxy wars with the soviets. yeah no, maybe thinking the government is shit isnt a bad thing
Of course it CAN, the question is, WILL it? And as an American, i say it damned well better!
Perun talks about factorio IRL for an hour straight.
My buddy works in the navy as a contractor. There is a problem that came up with important navigation software for a ship class. The previous contractor refused to hand over the software source code, because they owned it, so the new contractor could not fix it. So. They just sorta... coded around the problem.
I could be misunderstanding how software works but the principal is there. Major problem caused by a former contractor that makes a ship class less safe. Gotta love it.
During my stint at a shipyard, a chemical supplier for a special O ring went out of business, so no more O rings, and all work on a vital weapon system went dead until a chemical supplier for the O ring supplier was found.
My small robotics company has worked for the ONR. We make mostly underwater robotics primarily for research. Part of the problem is it is difficult to get paid without going through a “Prime contractor” . Also because they are the government and pay indirectly it could take a year to get paid. if you are a small company banks are not actually lining up to give you loans even if you have a government contract. In our case it is not a deficiency in stem talent its money and contracts. I know people i could hire away from private industry we just don’t have the money to do it. Probably part of the problem is we are more research equipment oriented and not making artillery shells.
Wow, amazing! These videos are always fascinating but this was one of your best of the year. Thanks for all you, Perun. You're going a long ways towards educating the engaged citizens of many nations about complex issues.
I gotta admit, “the manufacture of precision guided munitions” is something one could definitely get passionate about!
PGMs are one of the reasons why 155 mm SPGs have gained such an advantage over MBTs. When you combine PGMs with satellite surveillance & drone spotting a comparatively inexpensive SPG can start hitting enemy tank formations accurately at WWII cruiser ranges. A tank simply has no defense against 155 mm laser or GPS guided shells or guided rocket artillery. Modern ballistic artillery now hits with direct fire accuracy. PGMs are relatively pricey but if you can smoke a $5-$10 million dollar tank or high-end IFV with a shell that costs several thousand dollars or a rocket that costs as much as a good used car you’re coming out ahead.
Realising I still haven't eaten dinner yet, stumbling toward kitchen, what am I going to try and absorb while heating up some leftovers.... *checks notifs*
Noice. 👍
ed: excellent audio quality this time, well done to Perun's audio tech.