Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage from diverse sources around the world on a transparent platform driven by data. Try Ground News today and get 30% off your subscription: ground.news/perun Sound quality should be back up to scratch this week, thanks for your patience whenever that gets difficult. I've only talked about the Naval war once in the past, and since then the combination of the Grain deal and the mutual stand-off has mostly kept the theatre relatively quiet compared to the vicious fighting on land. But for all the talks of 'stalemate,' this war is more defined by constant adaptation and change than it is by stasis. With new weapons evolving (including naval kamikaze drones), new tactics being developed and the immense geopolitical fallout around the end of the Grain Deal, it's entirely possible we're on the verge of a new stage of the war in the Black Sea. And so today, I wanted to talk about it.
It is entirely unreasonable how goddamn *funny* your delivery can be when discussing these tragic and sad events. Makes it a lot easier to stomach keeping up to date on things, thank you for all your great work!
Clarification: Constanta is a large port, but it is not on the Danube. You mentioned it in the context of alternative Danube river options. Yes, it is an option to load up smaller ships under non-ukrainian flags and take them down the river to the Black Sea, then into Constanta, where grains can be transfered onto larger ships. But Constanta in my estimation, is fed ukrainian grains mainly by truck, from Ukraine into Romania and towards Constanta. There are witness accounts of miles long trucks heading to Constanta as I described. Constanta is a Black Sea alternative in its own right, the Danube river notwithstanding.
In Magurele (near Bucharest) we've seen quite a few fuel trucks with Ukranian flags. I don't know where they were from but they were heading N-E by the looks of it. And of course the usual trains with tanks and fuel and who knows, can't really tell the carts apart. For the past years, not as much as at the start.
I am participating at the opensource project that makes the firmware used on the radio that controls the mine clearing tractor. Nice to see that thing mentioned here.
Yeah, no debate, Peron has contributed greatly to everyone's understanding of the Russo/Ukrainian War. Keep it coming. Can't wait for the Turkey episode.
Of course, 6 days later from this broadcast, you are now aware that Ukrainian sea drones successfully hit and seriously damaged both a Russian Navy landing ship - the Olenegorsky Gornyak, which was taking on water and listing hard to port - and a Russian oil tanker. Let the games begin. With luck, Russia's Black Sea surface fleet will soon all be converted to "submarines."
Perun, thankyou for your emphasis in this talk on the humanitarian dimension. For me, one of your harder-hitting presentations. Keep up the good work mate.
The humanitarian angle is just a rhetorical framing device. Ukraine is not a charity. This grain is not free and it generates billions of Dollars for Ukraine to put toward its war effort. This framing is extremely dishonest.
you are thaknign propagandist for his lies. "Humanitarian" grain went for already well-fed Europe. The grain deal was a joke in the first place and Africans didn't get 99.9999% of it.
This video, like many of Perun's, generates as many questions as it answers. I want to say that this is the only comments section where I feel comfortable posting some of those questions. Here I have actually received thoughtful and helpful answers. Thank you all for that.
The comment section of Perun's videos is considerably above average indeed. Knowledgeable posters, good questions, politeness and little reaction baiting. Quite remarkable for videos with 250k+ views on average.
@@nielsharksen78 Agreed, I feel it might be due to the nature of the content. I feel the powerpoint format along with Perun's open way lend itself to an environment what benefit a "discussy" atmosphere, and to some extent the content gels well with people who like to actually discuss and debate the content at hand in a polite way.
The way our brains handle scale is interesting. When people hear 87,000 Romans marched to Cannae and see battle lines on a page, they don't think 8 to 16 miles of people straight without siege equipment or baggage train. That's a lot. 400,000,000 getting their food from one place is absolutely bananas.
What is bananas about it? Is starvation bananas? Rome got its wheat from Egypt, as its own capacity for wheat production was limited by its geography, and it's elites poor land management strategy. Geography is destiny. Why do you think both the West and the East are like a pair pf dogs fighting over Ukraine like a rope toy? Starvation and/or Thirst has the potential to destroy civilisations too.
yes, it is bananas cause it's a lie. Ukrainian grain went to already well-fed Europe which wrecked local farmers that are currently are rioting against their US'enslaved authorities to keep the UKrainian grain the fuck out of their markets to not ruin their own agriculture.
@@surgeon9039Did you watch the video at all? I mean, you sound like a Russian bot so probably not, but commodities like grain will rise in price if significant quantities are removed from supply.
I work on the Rhine, water levels are getting cripplingly low again. If we move the grain up the Danube, we'll then need to get it through the Rhein/Main/Donau canal and then down the Rhine and out through Antwerp or Rotterdam. With the unreliable water levels throughout late summer, the movable quantity will be less than satisfactory. My second thought would be using the rail network to get the grain to European ports, but Ukraine's rail network has a different gauge than the European one, so we'd need infrastructure for the transfer of grain from one rail system to an other. That infrastructure is extremely limited and any expansion would likely be targeted by the gremlins in the Kremlin. Trucks could work but are horribly inefficient compared to ships and trains. The best way to solve this situation is for the world to collectively pressure Ivan the terrible to back down and behave.
Alternative transportation is available but much more expensive for a heavy low value crop. One of the reasons why Ukraine exports so much is that it floats grain downriver and puts on ships.
I think an obvious first step would be to step in as a state and offer insurance to shipping that can't get it on the private market right now due to Russian threats. If Russian hope really is to cause a de facto blockade without needing to enforce it, make it harder for them to do so.
tbf you could just build the infrastructure for transferring grain on the other side of the border to make it essentially untouchable. Like build it in Poland and Romania and there's nothing Russia can do. Extending Ukrainian railways a few km into those countries wouldn't be a huge undertaking and can be done pretty quickly.
Hey, logistics major here, you raise good points, but as for the gauge issue: we can solve that with enough capital and political will with a simple workaround: you extend the ukrainian gauge by a few miles into a neighboring country and then you build the railyard aimed at doing nothing but transfering rolling stock from one gauge to another in that country, say Poland. This way the railyard itself will be protected by NATO and out of reach for the Russian military, althougb Ukraine will still have to do the hard job of defending the rail connection from their side, but that's gonna be the case in any scenario. Note that it won't be cheap, but if the EU funds this in collaboration with Ukraine, it can be done, although it will obviously take a while.
Perun, I'm sure it's not just me by saying: Thanks to the excellent presentation content, the apparent dip in audio quality was not what I was measuring last week's video on. In other words, please keep rather posting a video recorded under a blanket than skipping in search for a recording studio; everything short of a recording under the shower is probably fine.
Learning that large numbers of Russian civilians were vacationing in Crimea this year a month or two back when the Russian Navy had to set up ferries to carry them all across was one of the starkest reminders to me just how disconnected Russian civil society is from reality.
Some sources have speculated that Putin wants numerous civilian vacationers in Crimea as a human shield against Ukrainian attacks. We can’t know, but it seems possible.
they're russian speakers in the main in Crimea, which, not wanting to unpack that too much; does show how little russian citizens might know about the war.
It needs to be noted that there are or were 2 million civilians living in Crimea in February 2022. As things get tenser more of these people will decide being further away from the war zone is more prudent. While there are still Russian tourists visiting Crimea, the coming of the war there has ruined the tourist industry which in turn means everything touristy is cheap. Much more affordable than Sochi, Egypt, or Turkey. The tourists going there are betting their lives on the bargain, but there aren’t really that many of them.
Unlike newspapers though, I think he's actually acquired information twice (interviews). Everything else is just analysis after the mainstream media gathered the actual information.
@@ngails I think he's been more than fair. Russia has a very laughable army, and he has told the truth. If you can't handle that, don't call it inaccurate.
@dpelpal daily I see the video from the front lines one shot one kill. The Russian artillery is excellent. We misunderstood our enemies for decades. USA Debt was just downgraded. It's a debt backed currency. I could go on. When our perspective is narrow we miss. IMF look up Russian debt to the IMF. Putin paid off all of Ukraines debt. He rescued Russia. He works 12 hrs a day for 20 years he does the work of US Presidents entire executive team himself. Watch Oliver stones interviews with him. I am not political. I am not ideological. But I have a superior understanding of the global zeitgeist and it is leaning away from western hegemony and toward multi polarity.
How is it that you keep putting out consistently top quality content every week. The last month has been excellent episode after excellent episode. Enjoyed every one. Thanks from the Sunshine Coast!
Absolutely agree. Not from the sunshine coast tho, but currently near lake constance aka the swabian ocean 😂 (big lake on the south end of bratwurstland, very beautiful!)
To highlight the logistical problems of getting grain from Ukraine to Croatia (and its ports). The passenger train route between Odessa and Zagreb goes via Krakow (southern Poland), Czechia, Vienna, Salzburg (On the Austrian German border) and then through Slovenia. That's an expensive and cumbersome route to take.
Yeah I thought about mainland transport. Unfortunately boats are great in moving huge quantities at once. Trains go a distant second place I assume. Trucking and airlift is ridiculously expensive and inefficient. I guess we need a hyper loop to Ukraine. Get Elon at it at once!
Though I laughed hard at the significance of the Ukrainian raccoon, some emotion swelled inside me. The love for that one cute raccoon symbolizes the goodness of the Ukrainian people. Most of us have seen the videos of Ukrainian troops feeding trench mice, squirrels and the rescue of beavers and marbled poll cats. There is even a video of a mouse riding atop a BMP and Ukrainian soldiers laughing while watching it. The gut punch to the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be the sinking of a Russian submarine....crew and all. Count on it, it is coming.
There was a Ukrainian fellow in a DC server I'm on who got conscripted and he'd often update us on what was going on, how he was, and he posted a picture once of rescuing a cat trapped in a vineyard. One of his last messages was November of last year, saying he'd been in the middle of an intense warzone for a couple weeks. He's been silent since then. Sometimes I think about all the other small interactions that people have with those caught up in this and the sudden loss of contact and how much this fighting has affected everyone. I hope that all this fighting will end as soon as possible so everyone can go home, rebuild, and reunite with their friends and family.
Sinking a Russian sub will be easier said than done, assuming they don't manage to catch it by surprise. Ukrainians will need something with ASW capability. Perhaps a dedicated ASW helicopter or something, but then they'll need to protect it as well...
"It's complicated" is as all-encompassing (and useless) as "A wizard did it." It's signage for an off-ramp into a different hour-plus power point presentation.
Perun, you are an amazing breath of fresh air - erudite, methodical, and with a fresh perspective. I'm so glad that you decided to become a TH-camr since I (and I know I'm not the only one) feel that I have a deeper appreciation about the situation in Ukraine, and the military complex in general, thanks to you. Thank you good sir for being you and doing what you do!
""Controversial’ only means this will lose you votes. 'Courageous' means this will lose you the election." Sir Humphrey Appleby quote. "Bold move" Perun. Translation: Kiss your arse goodbye.
If the Russians start sinking vessels in the black sea, Ukraine should _definitely_ consider issuing letters of marque & retaliation world wide, permitting seizure of Russian flagged vessels on the high sea...
@@cancermcaids7688 An interesting point of international law. But also, did not Russia abrogate the Treaty of 1856 at some point? Did that not technically include the bit about letters of marque etc? Did the Russian Empire ever issue letters of marque?
@@cancermcaids7688 It will be interesting to see whether Russia sinks ships under other than Ukrainian flags in the Black Sea... that sort of lawlessness probably justifies much of what Ukraine might do in response...
Imo we should take Medvedev's statement totally seriously. So much so that one day when we get our hands on him, we shall apply to him what he advocated for all this time. Feed him his own medicine.
The Russian government encouraging tourism in an active warzone is a sad indication of its callous disregard for human life, even that of its own citizens.
The Enforcer went over the multitude of steps Russian vacationers have to go through to reach Crimea (eg. passports, and they can “have a snack”) with the bridge gone. It‘s smh to believe any Russian traveller would actually go through the Russian equivalent of a Chevy Chase Family Vacation. :O
Happy Perun Day to us! These videos are such an absolute treat. Thank you for taking the time to share your analysis with us. It's greatly increased my ability to understand what's happening in Ukraine, and in wars in general. I hope you're well. So long as you make these videos, you have a fan in me, and many others I know.
I've been watching this extensively for the last month. One of the best discoveries on TH-cam for me. Perun, you do an excellent and tremendous job on this channel, uncovering the fog of war and putting everything about this war on the bigger picture for the wider world. And your constant reminders about the fact that there are human lives and human tragedy behind cold numbers of war mean world. As for a guy from the Ukrainian military, I do really appreciate that
He really does a good job doesn’t he? Also, best of luck from the USA. I really wish we were giving y’all more. Lift the ban on striking Russian territory with western weapons. If they didnt want to have missiles hitting Russian territory they shouldn’t have invaded. Send ATAKEMs, F-16 with volunteer pilots and crews, more M1A1s, long range cruise missiles and whatever else will help and can be fielded short-medium term. People talk about depleting stocks needed for a hypothetical war, but these weapons were made to stop the ruzzians in the event of war and any war with China is likely to be mainly a naval/air war, so 2000 abrams sitting in the desert arnt going to be missed. Neither are the high flight hour but well maintained F16s that are being replaced with F35. Ukraine will be victorious with proper support. Y’all have balls of steel and hearts of iron. Keep up the fight! Victory will come! Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦
@@Stepheno0125 Can you imagine being the USA. You get to fight an old foe. You get to weaken them nearly to the point of collapse. You fight them with weapons you're going to throw away anyways because they are past their best before date. And, best of all, you get to fight them without sending any of your own people into battle. BEST. DEAL. EVER.
Yes, he is great isn't he. I used to write long, flowery praises in PERUNs honour for the first year. Now I just say that we, his audience, we few, we happy few, are spoiled rotten.
You're videos are a reminder to me of how important an expert opinion is on making sense of the world today. It's amazing to me that geopolitics can effect me here in the middle of Florida, where rules don't technically exist, but time and again your analysis has helped me to understand why things are happening right here at home. How odd it is that someone from under-Narnia could make sense off the world for a swamp dweller like me. Cheers from the mosquito infested hell that is North-Central Florida.
What's the strategic objective behind bombing food supplies you ask? Russian regime in their minds isn't waging a war on Ukraine. They are waging a global geopolitical conflict against NATO. Their long term strategic goal is destabilizing and weakening NATO, especially in Europe - which in practice means weakening and destabilizing Europe. By starving Africa they cause even more migration into Europe, which further exacerbates Europe's migrant crisis. Weaponizng food and using mass starvation as a political weapon is straight out of the Russian playbook. Holodomor, anyone?
I’d like to see a video on “trump cards” - big red buttons Russia can still push to make things a lot more difficult for Ukraine, but also themselves. After blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam, failing to blow up the nuclear power plant, and pulling out of the grain deal for realsies, I can’t help but think they might be running out.
Well, one scenario is Belarus is colonised more thoroughly and combined with Wagner to become a northern front against Ukraine, full of disposable people who can be sent to their deaths because they're not Russians anyway, or they're supposed 'traitor mercenaries'. The Belarus army is a joke and not a particularly funny one either, but if they begin conscripting and training (with Wagner help) you can easily field 50K conscripts in 3-6 months from now. I suppose they could also commit suicide by using WMDs, but the consequences of that would be severe to Russia-ending in nature. People didn't mind when Russia gassed a bunch of Arab villagers in Syria, but dropping poison gas on Kiyv will elicit a much more fierce response. Their worst-case scenario would probably be a naval blockade of Russia, or their Indian bootlickers bowing out.
@@nvelsen1975Arming the Belarusian population almost certainly leads to them overthrowing their own government. They seem a lot more politicised and a lot less fatalistic than, say, the Russian population.
The way I see it they have very few options left: -the less likely is a nuclear strike on kiyv. Big gamble, probably nato would intervene directly, but there is a chance ukraine would surrender. -Securing china's support somehow, also not very likely considering china has its own problems, strong economic ties with the west and very little to gain from helping russia to that degree. -putting pressure on energy exporting countries and try to choke off europe, hard to do considering the USA is one of them and europe has some indigenous production, but potentially could force the EU to negotiate. -dial up the info war, in particular in the US, bribe a few politicians and influence public opinion to make them pull the plug on support for ukraine. This has likely been happening the whole time, the fact russia adopted "questionable" military strategies sabotages somewhat their effort, but if successful it would change things a lot. -the last trump card is complete transition to a war economy and mass mobilization, probably the most likely, effective and safe option, still potentially dangerous for the regime though
@@diametheuslambda It would eventually lead to overthrowing Lukashenko yes, but that's not Putin's problem, which is why he might use the Belarussians as cannon fodder.
I thought the dam was destroyed through neglect? IE the Russian soldiers capturing it and then not knowing how to maintain it(leaving the gates closed and building up water, causing a collapse).
Next time you go swimming with the dolphins keep in mind flippers distant cousin might be in Russian military service 😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️ This is one pf many reasons i love peruns presentations his dry sense of humor is always on point
thanks mate. I don't think I've had any real spare time since March 2022 but I'm not complaining. It's a privilege to be able to do this and other related work.
How do you have such in depth videos to the questions I just start asking? I literally just learned yesterday of Ukraine's remote controlled naval drones, outside of some combat video from a year ago I think. I'm hoping this is addressed in the video but if not, you can only do so much, lol. Anyways, as always, thank you for the constant stream of amazing content! It truly is appreciated.
If you go back through Perun's videos, he did an excellent one on the sinking of the Moskva and the overall state of Russia's navy not long after she was sunk.
Turns out the Raccoon is indeed a much mightier animal than the Leopard. As a German I'm not mad about it though. Hopefully Ukrainians will get their raccoon back. And Crimea with it.
Should we ever have a major catastrophe that extinguishes mankind the raccoon will take over because it is smaller and has paws that appear to be little hands. Also cockroaches and certain cheeky birds.
@@kti5682 That would be interesting if only raccoons and cockroaches exist. Don't raccoons eat cockroaches, and won't they be forced to if the garbage cans that humans so thoughtfully provide are no longer available?
@@dougerrohmer The neighbour reports that the little Basterds took an interest in fruits from the apple tree as well. So I'm totally expecting them to be flexible in their diet.
@@Destroyer_V0 didn’t need to lose sailors in a fireship. They would use the wind and the tide to let them float slowly towards the enemy, or they’d set sails, bind the wheel to a course for an enemy fleet, then set the ship ablaze and leave for the small rowing boat taken along for that purpose. Usually fireships were used on fleets on anchor, or ones that were otherwise non-mobile. Very few sailors would willingly join a suicide mission with zero chance of survival
Will love to see the one on Turkey. My sense is that it has been tapdancing (randomly? expertly? certainly interestingly) with its many partners, allies and potential adversaries on the geopolitical stage and it would be interesting to see where its military is positioned in that. I think they are using a lot of soft power (position, foot in two camps geographically and religiously and "principle") to obtain advantage from the current chaos around them. I don't have any clear view on what their aims are or might be but it certainly isn't boring.
It seems like it's a rule that NATO must have at least one member state that's always getting up to some shenanigans. It used to be France but now Turkey has taken over that role.
16:15 Medvedev adopts these ludicrous and indictable positions on RSM because, to Putin, he's the only heir-apparent to the throne of the Tsar; just kind of like "Kill me and this maniac takes the Reign." That's all.
I appreciate your continuing emphasis on the humanitarian disaster that is this war - and the ripple effects spreading the tragedy into other countries. So much coverage treats this conflict as if it’s a video game with daily installments, giving equipment/manpower scorecards on losses, as we wait for one side to level up. A large part of the viewing audience has no experience of true war (most of us are lucky enough to live mostly peaceful lives), but we all need to remember that war destroys more than tanks. Thank you for your frequent reminders that this conflict has a deep and widening cost for millions of innocent people.
I don't think that the Russian surface ship will be operating on the western Black Sea for very long as they will be attacked by the Ukrainian maritime drones. It's hard to enforce a proper blockade without having the ability to stop and board to question merchant ships. The Russians can indiscriminately sink all ships heading from/to Ukraine with their subs and long range missiles but that is not a proper blockade. It's just the Russians going crazy. The Ukrainian can easily retaliate by using their maritime drones to indiscriminately sink all ships heading from/to Russia too. Russia, Ukraine, and the world would lose big time if this happens. Using expensive guided missile to attack general food storage facilities is a losing tactics. There are more storage facilities than there are Russian missiles and the result won't be much better than the attack against the electrical infrastructure. It makes more sense to attack the port infrastructure and perhaps the storage around the port. But the Russians can't seem to control themselves or are incompetent and they keep on vindictively attacking civilians instead of militarily significant targets.
Thanks for this overview. Very good and useful. It will be interesting to see how it’s going, but my hunch is Ukraine expects to continue exporting grain across the Black Sea.
Never mind poorer states, _everyone_ is affected by a sudden enormous drop in the global supply of wheat. If Ukraine's exports are suddenly blocked by Russia, that means the price of those exports on the global market goes up as supply falls. When we're talking about wheat, that affects damn near *everything* in the food industry, directly or indirectly.
Russia ending the grain deal could be less about actually blocking exports and more about controlling prices. If memory serves, the grain deal came about because a huge amount of grain was trapped in Odessa and the Ukrainians were on the verge of taking in a harvest with nowhere to put it. Recreating that problem means Russia can time high grain prices to coincide with the Russian harvest while also hurting Ukraine by forcing them to flood the market whenever the black sea ports open again.
@@pechudin9086 -- It's war. Russia already blew up the Kakhovka dam and compromised Crimea's water supply for *YEARS* in order to delay a Ukranian assault across the Dnipro river for 2-3 months. This is just more of the same. Over 90% of Ukranian wheat is harvested during July and August. Like it or not, Russia needs to delay that income if it wants to undermine Ukraine's warfighting ability.
You have one of the best communities out there, because you deliver some of the best and most comprehensive content in your field (in a entertaining and often funny manner, few other conent creators are matching, when it comes to these topics). And while a lot of your followers watch your video within minutes or hours to your release, I hope more will eventually reward your videos with likes to boost the algorithm! At time of watching less than 10% of people watching have liked the video, come on guys, show some love.
So here's the thing, ever thought where the particularly good year for Russian grain comes from? I surmise it's not Russian at all; rather that in March 2022 when Russia had some military successes, they emptied out the Ukrainian grain silos along the way, in the territory they largely lost already last autumn. Trucks and rail could deliver army supplies one way and grain the other, improving utilisation like that. So that surplus has to be temporary. Russia is still holding a chunk of Ukrainian territory, but i would be very surprised if they will have a great harvest there. For one a lot of those fields are now defence fortfications and for other, i heard stories of mismanagement by the gangs that are effectively ruling there.
Thanks you for this informed perspective about recent events in/around the Black Sea. Deliberate targeting of food supplies that impact the global market and significantly raise the specter of famine is certainly a "dick move", but pales in comparison to the original decision to invade your neighbor in the first place...
I understand that Ancient Greece is seafaring merchant civilization and Greece has inherited traditional cargo shipping in the 21th century. But testing grounds and needs between the Mediterranean versus the West Pacific is very different, the seas are harsher here. Last week, there was Typhoon Talim, Typhoon Doksuri this week, and next week might be typhoon Khanun.
I could imagine Taiwan right now buying up all the jet skis it can find. But I imagine that Chinese detection of tiny surface craft is better than the Russians. But maybe not, who knows... China's emphasis on building a numerically large navy of tiny boats might mean that each and every boat has minimal if any defense.
One of the options to be able to export grain for Africa etc is to use chinese (PRC)ships. Russia wouldnt dare sink them and China would be the player helping to feed the developing world.
Regarding a potential Russian blockade / restriction of shipping into and out of Ukraine, rather than Turkey, I think a potential player (and winner if they do) here could be *_CHINA_* . China has one of the largest merchant fleets in the world; accounting for possibly in the area of a quarter of global container shipping. It would be absolutely within the realms of possibility for the Chinese government to insure its vessels to enter the Black Sea in spite of the war. Similarly, the Russian navy would have a huge incentive not to target, harass, and damage (let alone sink!) Chinese vessels due to Russia's relationship with China. Aside from the potential revenue/profits and securing its own food supply, China is constantly seeking ways to improve its image and reputation on the world stage. Coming in to the rescue, especially with attention towards supplying food to Africa and food insecure countries, would be a good way to upstage the US and NATO, especially if the latter two are unable to come up with a solution of their own.
That would be an interesting PR move from the Chinese. Certainly allow it to take a front stage in a crisis that has so far left it (mostly) on the side.
China has its own population to feed, and are sniffing around south America for said food supplies. That's why its sending its graduates into the Countryside fo two years, instead of into professional work.
If Beijing did that, then it might damage their relationship with Moscow. Looking past Moscow's bullshit justification for the loss of the grain deal, the real reason is that they want to damage Kyiv by strangling Ukrainian grain shipments. Moscow wouldn't appreciate Beijing circumventing Moscow's blockade. Also, Moscow could blow up Chinese-flagged ships with stealthily-placed mines in a way that they could plausibly blame Kyiv for it afterwards. The Chinese flag might not offer as much protection as you'd think.
As a Canadian sailor we always shuffled our ship around in Thunder Bay to get a load of the proper grains , at maximum 35,000 tons. We were restricted by he locks and a ocean going ship usually took 3 of us. Most gain moved east ( I think ) due to cost.
Ah yes! Actually I’ve considered the Black Sea to be the crucial front from the start. Edited to add: Ukraine has been dredging the Danube. I forget how many feet deeper they’ve made it, but it is significant, allowing heavier loads to transit up to the Rhine. They’ve also been frantically upgrading Danube port infrastructure to handle more material. I have no data on how much extra can be shipped this way.
@@advancetotabletop5328not quite, the concept centres around utilising a fleet of smaller (and cheaper) but heavily armed ships and submarines to defeat much larger navies. Ultimately it never quite achieved its goals at the time but with the advent of drones we're seeing it across a variety of spheres not just naval warfare.
There is at least one semi-submersible claimed to be in development. There are extra challenges in building an affordable semi-sub with the same performance characteristics...but I would expect to see evidence of those being used eventually.
A follow up question, how are these drones different to existing torpedoes? Range? Cost? Are existing anti torpedo measures not sufficient to deal with them?
@@PerunAUdon't need same performance, speed wise. Put a couple of Brimstone on a swarm of submerged drones and fire a bunch of of those at Sevastopol harbor from a few km out...
I would be curious to see your view on the role of static defenses and fortifications historically and in this war. How each side uses them, their impact, how to breach them, etc. It seems like a very topical subject.
The loss of the grain deal honestly depresses me. I work in an agricultural country and have family and friends in the agricultural sector. We have been projecting food shortage due to low production due to increased weather problems and decrease in interest in agri by new generations. The additional stress on food supply is going to choke us. I am earning good money but it's fast getting runover by inflation. This salary 1 yr ago would have been godly. Now it's just enough. I'm fucking depressed.
@@SpringIsBACK My parents' retirement income was projected to be enough for them to live on but now the family is talking about how much we can contribute from our salaries to keep our parents comfortable... depressing as hell. I really cannot see how I could even plan on living to old age in this economy 😔 Good luck to us.
I would think that food shortages work to your advantage, as prices for your product will go up. Unless you are experiencing a serious decline in yield as well.
@@teresabenson3385 Sadly, we are. Prolonged droughts followed by super typhoons cause a significant decline in yield and consistency. This is on top of inflating costs of operation so yeah. Profit margins are either slim or negative even with price increases to match market prices. It's depressing. 🥲
Given the importance of basic needs like food production, the reaction by the rest of the world to Russia's actions is inevitable. Sanctions and arms shipments to Ukraine may well give way to more active participation. Russia just seems to keep blundering it's way into making itself the world's enemy.
What I wonder about the blockade: How did the interntional shippers react to the end of the deal? Even if it's impractial from a Russian standpoint to create a full blockade, maybe the international shippers are so scared of Russian bombs they avoid shipping anyway. In that sense, the Russians don't need to carry out a full blockade, only the threat is bad enough. To further elaborate, this could of course be countered by other countries if they would defend the shippers. But would any country actually take that risk? EDIT: I like your counter to the argument of 'UA's grain mostly ended up in Europe anyway, so it did not impact the global market too much'. I've heard that argument in an important national (Dutch) newspaper without any pushback. While the point of 'it will drive up the price no matter where it ends up' seems so obvious.
I think an empty threat without actual enforcement is going to be of short lived effectiveness. Someone is going to sail regardless, and then word is going to get around that it's actually not so dangerous. Russia has already run out of credibility on numerous threats. Another Russian propaganda myth is that they can cover Ukraine's shortfall on grain. They're generous now because they have a temporary surplus, they have the surplus because they emptied Ukrainian silos in early mid 2022 before they lost a bunch of territory. Russia still holds some, but for one, farming on Surovikin line is going to prove difficult, for other, newly arrived Russian gangs have been stealing farmers' tools and equipment and SOMETIMES selling them back to them, so i doubt the harvest is going to come out great there.
Ending the grain deal and attacking grain facilities is one of the most stupid decisions of the last 18 months. There are so many countries that could claim ownership Russia has given almost anyone causus belli.
@@8darktraveler8 Plenty of countries have attached nuclear armed nations over less however direct attacks are not the only option. Imagine you are an Asian leader for example, and Russia has just destroyed the food your nation needs, you can't attack Russia and they can do little against you, if you decide to use it as a pretext you can seize any Russian flagged vessel or aircraft and Russian owned property on your territory.
@@Matt_The_Hugenot Definitely, anyone can do anything, I thoroughly doubt anything will happen. This is Western oligarchs vs Eastern oligarchs, this whole thing is to find out who makes money while peasants die, to pretend anything humanitarian is important to rich people, past gaining more influence, money and power would be to live in lala land.
I'm of the firm opinion it needs to disappear. I don't mind Russia, Moscow doesn't even bother me. But that "fortress government" is just too paranoid.
It is debatable if the inventor of these naval drones had some inspiration from south american drug smugler's semi submersibles, but I'm sure the drug smugler's are watching this development of low observable naval drones used in Russo-Ukranian war.. It will be interesting to see what developments there will be on that front.
Excellent video as always! Regarding safeguarding shipping, I for one would like to see UN flagged ships in the Black Sea.. as a minimum for grain bought for the World Food Program.
@NathansHVAC Ukraine has proven that blown up infrastructure isn't that big of a hassle compared to other problem, heck how many times has the train system been hit only for two guys smoking cigarettes going out and fixing their section?
I feel that in the age of GPS, cheap drones, AI navigation and satellites, you can wreak havoc on another nation's navy without having your own. Especially in a pond (700 miles × 160 miles) called the Black Sea.
I am waiting to see how russia plans on blockading odessa with harpoon missiles and these murder speed boats haunting the sea with 300kg of explosive payload,
The middle ground between small firearms worth less than a million and strategic weapons worth over a hundred million is slowly deprecating... it's becoming militarily stupid to buy anything but a dji drone or a nuke
The US Department of Defense has learned that they are overly reliant on GPS as electronic warfare has significantly reduced the accuracy of the precision weapons and knocked out the signals that communicate with drones. It will be interesting what DARPA comes up with as a solution.
I wonder if naval drones can be navitaged using cameras and celestial bodies + compass, etc. I'd love some educated people to share if they're already using it/ what are the limitations. Perpahs when the drone navigates using stars, it can use a camera to visually recognize an object that's similar to a bridge support column...
@@rasselbidou If you're planning to do a naval landing, you're going to need large transport ships if you want to do it with any measure of effectiveness. In what is mostly a land war, I agree with you, but there are many scenarios in which the "couple hundred million dollar chunk of floating metal" is still useful
Well Perun mate, I guess ya welcome. But of course does one of the best channels on TH-cam have one of the best community! keep it up, Slava Ukraini ❤🎉
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Sound quality should be back up to scratch this week, thanks for your patience whenever that gets difficult.
I've only talked about the Naval war once in the past, and since then the combination of the Grain deal and the mutual stand-off has mostly kept the theatre relatively quiet compared to the vicious fighting on land. But for all the talks of 'stalemate,' this war is more defined by constant adaptation and change than it is by stasis. With new weapons evolving (including naval kamikaze drones), new tactics being developed and the immense geopolitical fallout around the end of the Grain Deal, it's entirely possible we're on the verge of a new stage of the war in the Black Sea.
And so today, I wanted to talk about it.
USV's: Single use subs: With a single let's just say 'device' onboard. No ship or port would be safe.
🇺🇦
Poopy Joe’s handlers put ads on your video.
actually it sounds worse on my end
more digital robot ish voice normally its perfect
maybe its my end tho
You forgot to include the y-axis with the chart at 20:45.
I've been binging your channel for the last few weeks and I'm not sure any TH-cam channel has taught me so much, so quickly. Phenomenal work!
Perun is the best ad for microsoft
Remember, the Imperium of Man is Russia, Ukraine is Vraks. Lmao.
Ah templininstitute the fake fan
Oh, I like your take on sci fi topics. The one on planetsry invasions and tanks in sci fi are my favorites👍
a collab between you 2 would be quite interesting... defence economics of a space empire???
It is entirely unreasonable how goddamn *funny* your delivery can be when discussing these tragic and sad events. Makes it a lot easier to stomach keeping up to date on things, thank you for all your great work!
Clarification: Constanta is a large port, but it is not on the Danube. You mentioned it in the context of alternative Danube river options. Yes, it is an option to load up smaller ships under non-ukrainian flags and take them down the river to the Black Sea, then into Constanta, where grains can be transfered onto larger ships. But Constanta in my estimation, is fed ukrainian grains mainly by truck, from Ukraine into Romania and towards Constanta. There are witness accounts of miles long trucks heading to Constanta as I described. Constanta is a Black Sea alternative in its own right, the Danube river notwithstanding.
In Magurele (near Bucharest) we've seen quite a few fuel trucks with Ukranian flags.
I don't know where they were from but they were heading N-E by the looks of it.
And of course the usual trains with tanks and fuel and who knows, can't really tell the carts apart. For the past years, not as much as at the start.
There is a canal connection from Constanta to the Danube.
@@Winnas Yes, there is, not very deep, not sure what the clearance is. Mostly for barges, would be my guess.
Interesting. Your post has had me diving into maps to understand it a bit better. The geography of river deltas is never simple!! Thanks for posting.
I am participating at the opensource project that makes the firmware used on the radio that controls the mine clearing tractor.
Nice to see that thing mentioned here.
Love the video! Amazing quality as always and a fantastic start to the week.
I like taking an hour out of a day to tune in to Perun. Logic never sounded so balanced
Well done !
On topic of audience , I wait for Sunday 9am est release. Within 1 hour of release 12k already viewed it. Thanks.
Yeah, no debate, Peron has contributed greatly to everyone's understanding of the Russo/Ukrainian War. Keep it coming. Can't wait for the Turkey episode.
Excellent as always man.
The expression "I threw up a post" gave me the weirdest mental image.
Coughing up a 6 foot oak timber is a hell of an image indeed.
Of course, 6 days later from this broadcast, you are now aware that Ukrainian sea drones successfully hit and seriously damaged both a Russian Navy landing ship - the Olenegorsky Gornyak, which was taking on water and listing hard to port - and a Russian oil tanker. Let the games begin. With luck, Russia's Black Sea surface fleet will soon all be converted to "submarines."
An amazingly down to earth analysis as always.
Once again, thank you so much Perun
Minor correction, it's "The Coscova".
Glory to 🇺🇦 ! Let’s help them to push Russian barbarians back
Perun, thankyou for your emphasis in this talk on the humanitarian dimension. For me, one of your harder-hitting presentations. Keep up the good work mate.
The humanitarian angle is just a rhetorical framing device. Ukraine is not a charity. This grain is not free and it generates billions of Dollars for Ukraine to put toward its war effort.
This framing is extremely dishonest.
you are thaknign propagandist for his lies. "Humanitarian" grain went for already well-fed Europe. The grain deal was a joke in the first place and Africans didn't get 99.9999% of it.
This video, like many of Perun's, generates as many questions as it answers. I want to say that this is the only comments section where I feel comfortable posting some of those questions. Here I have actually received thoughtful and helpful answers. Thank you all for that.
Yes agreed, there is a general understanding that discussion about the war is done in good faith here which isn't very common online.
Just as well. I'm always skeptical of *anyone* who claims to have *all* of the answers on a topic as complex as the Ukraine war.
The comment section of Perun's videos is considerably above average indeed. Knowledgeable posters, good questions, politeness and little reaction baiting. Quite remarkable for videos with 250k+ views on average.
@@nielsharksen78 Agreed, I feel it might be due to the nature of the content. I feel the powerpoint format along with Perun's open way lend itself to an environment what benefit a "discussy" atmosphere, and to some extent the content gels well with people who like to actually discuss and debate the content at hand in a polite way.
After reading many comments and reply’s, I agree completely.
The way our brains handle scale is interesting. When people hear 87,000 Romans marched to Cannae and see battle lines on a page, they don't think 8 to 16 miles of people straight without siege equipment or baggage train. That's a lot. 400,000,000 getting their food from one place is absolutely bananas.
What is bananas about it? Is starvation bananas? Rome got its wheat from Egypt, as its own capacity for wheat production was limited by its geography, and it's elites poor land management strategy. Geography is destiny. Why do you think both the West and the East are like a pair pf dogs fighting over Ukraine like a rope toy? Starvation and/or Thirst has the potential to destroy civilisations too.
yes, it is bananas cause it's a lie. Ukrainian grain went to already well-fed Europe which wrecked local farmers that are currently are rioting against their US'enslaved authorities to keep the UKrainian grain the fuck out of their markets to not ruin their own agriculture.
Cool so you dont understand supply and demand.
@@surgeon9039Did you watch the video at all? I mean, you sound like a Russian bot so probably not, but commodities like grain will rise in price if significant quantities are removed from supply.
mmmmm bananas 🤤
You can't imagine how glad I am to watch your videos while traveling in a train for 5 hours, 1/5 of entertainment is guaranteed now
Some quality time to relax and properly take in Perun's wisdom. Hope you have a great journey 😊
Fly next time
@@stc3145 I'm trying to be eco friendly lol. Just cheaper and easier to take the train in western EU
@@IsaakSpy Thanks mate ☺️
@@Galadoninchiming in to also wish you a comfortable journey
I work on the Rhine, water levels are getting cripplingly low again.
If we move the grain up the Danube, we'll then need to get it through the Rhein/Main/Donau canal and then down the Rhine and out through Antwerp or Rotterdam. With the unreliable water levels throughout late summer, the movable quantity will be less than satisfactory.
My second thought would be using the rail network to get the grain to European ports, but Ukraine's rail network has a different gauge than the European one, so we'd need infrastructure for the transfer of grain from one rail system to an other. That infrastructure is extremely limited and any expansion would likely be targeted by the gremlins in the Kremlin.
Trucks could work but are horribly inefficient compared to ships and trains.
The best way to solve this situation is for the world to collectively pressure Ivan the terrible to back down and behave.
Alternative transportation is available but much more expensive for a heavy low value crop.
One of the reasons why Ukraine exports so much is that it floats grain downriver and puts on ships.
I think an obvious first step would be to step in as a state and offer insurance to shipping that can't get it on the private market right now due to Russian threats. If Russian hope really is to cause a de facto blockade without needing to enforce it, make it harder for them to do so.
tbf you could just build the infrastructure for transferring grain on the other side of the border to make it essentially untouchable. Like build it in Poland and Romania and there's nothing Russia can do. Extending Ukrainian railways a few km into those countries wouldn't be a huge undertaking and can be done pretty quickly.
Hey, logistics major here, you raise good points, but as for the gauge issue: we can solve that with enough capital and political will with a simple workaround: you extend the ukrainian gauge by a few miles into a neighboring country and then you build the railyard aimed at doing nothing but transfering rolling stock from one gauge to another in that country, say Poland. This way the railyard itself will be protected by NATO and out of reach for the Russian military, althougb Ukraine will still have to do the hard job of defending the rail connection from their side, but that's gonna be the case in any scenario.
Note that it won't be cheap, but if the EU funds this in collaboration with Ukraine, it can be done, although it will obviously take a while.
@@SatanicBunny666 Indeed! Rolling stock with an ability to shorten/widen the axles do exist! Spain France for example.
Perun, I'm sure it's not just me by saying: Thanks to the excellent presentation content, the apparent dip in audio quality was not what I was measuring last week's video on. In other words, please keep rather posting a video recorded under a blanket than skipping in search for a recording studio; everything short of a recording under the shower is probably fine.
Learning that large numbers of Russian civilians were vacationing in Crimea this year a month or two back when the Russian Navy had to set up ferries to carry them all across was one of the starkest reminders to me just how disconnected Russian civil society is from reality.
Some sources have speculated that Putin wants numerous civilian vacationers in Crimea as a human shield against Ukrainian attacks. We can’t know, but it seems possible.
I believe many of them really do see this as some small scale "special operation"
they're russian speakers in the main in Crimea, which, not wanting to unpack that too much; does show how little russian citizens might know about the war.
Wonderful day to observe a lot of neat planes and tanks so shiny admire awesome technology. every day is May day what possibility could be better
It needs to be noted that there are or were 2 million civilians living in Crimea in February 2022. As things get tenser more of these people will decide being further away from the war zone is more prudent.
While there are still Russian tourists visiting Crimea, the coming of the war there has ruined the tourist industry which in turn means everything touristy is cheap. Much more affordable than Sochi, Egypt, or Turkey. The tourists going there are betting their lives on the bargain, but there aren’t really that many of them.
Unlike newspapers, this feels like an *actual* war update! Excellent work!
I wish "Ukraine: The Latest" by The Telegraph interviewed Perun at some point
Not entirely. He is very biased and not entirely accurate. It is not excellent but fair from Western perspective.
Unlike newspapers though, I think he's actually acquired information twice (interviews).
Everything else is just analysis after the mainstream media gathered the actual information.
@@ngails I think he's been more than fair. Russia has a very laughable army, and he has told the truth. If you can't handle that, don't call it inaccurate.
@dpelpal daily I see the video from the front lines one shot one kill. The Russian artillery is excellent. We misunderstood our enemies for decades. USA Debt was just downgraded. It's a debt backed currency. I could go on. When our perspective is narrow we miss. IMF look up Russian debt to the IMF. Putin paid off all of Ukraines debt. He rescued Russia. He works 12 hrs a day for 20 years he does the work of US Presidents entire executive team himself. Watch Oliver stones interviews with him. I am not political. I am not ideological. But I have a superior understanding of the global zeitgeist and it is leaning away from western hegemony and toward multi polarity.
How is it that you keep putting out consistently top quality content every week. The last month has been excellent episode after excellent episode. Enjoyed every one. Thanks from the Sunshine Coast!
I second this. Also from the Sunshine Coast, lol.
Absolutely agree. Not from the sunshine coast tho, but currently near lake constance aka the swabian ocean 😂 (big lake on the south end of bratwurstland, very beautiful!)
@@adenkyramud5005East Bratwurstistan alhamdulillah
To highlight the logistical problems of getting grain from Ukraine to Croatia (and its ports). The passenger train route between Odessa and Zagreb goes via Krakow (southern Poland), Czechia, Vienna, Salzburg (On the Austrian German border) and then through Slovenia. That's an expensive and cumbersome route to take.
How many times do you need to change gauge or locos due to the different electricity and steering requirements?
@@zbigniewmalec4816AFAIK, only once, at Polish-Ukraine border, because gauge
Yeah I thought about mainland transport. Unfortunately boats are great in moving huge quantities at once. Trains go a distant second place I assume. Trucking and airlift is ridiculously expensive and inefficient. I guess we need a hyper loop to Ukraine.
Get Elon at it at once!
@@cpt_nordbart He's awfully busy killing a bird right now...
Maybe we can use it to finally get some proper investment in railway infrastructure.
After Muscova, the Black Sea has fallen out of the news. Thanks for covering this front.
The Moskva wasnt sunk, you nato drones never understand. Its promoted to a submarine..
@@u2beuser714 You are right, of course. I hear they're making a movie about it:
The Hunt for Red October 2 - Electric Muscavoo
@@u2beuser714The sinking of the Moskva was a feint. Stop listening to Western propaganda.
@@Rob_F8FA shame they can't reincarnate Sean Connery for it
Zelenskyy visited Snake Island just to keep the story in the news.
I think Ukraine looks at your videos and says "hold my beer", when planning out the next major operation.
I'm hoping the Ukrainians will be able to get ever more effective with their sea-drones.
I'm sure of one thing, they can make a lot more drones than Russia can make bridges and warships
They will. To be honest, I'm surprised that they haven't tried to dronify a Nimitz carrier yet.
very unlikely, the blockade seriosly limits their ability to launch attacks.
@@bigal3055😅
We will. Thank you!
Though I laughed hard at the significance of the Ukrainian raccoon, some emotion swelled inside me. The love for that one cute raccoon symbolizes the goodness of the Ukrainian people. Most of us have seen the videos of Ukrainian troops feeding trench mice, squirrels and the rescue of beavers and marbled poll cats. There is even a video of a mouse riding atop a BMP and Ukrainian soldiers laughing while watching it.
The gut punch to the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be the sinking of a Russian submarine....crew and all. Count on it, it is coming.
This👆
x2
Meanwhile in russia, search "russian man punches camel"
He suckered punches it. Tries again and the camel literally kills him.
There was a Ukrainian fellow in a DC server I'm on who got conscripted and he'd often update us on what was going on, how he was, and he posted a picture once of rescuing a cat trapped in a vineyard. One of his last messages was November of last year, saying he'd been in the middle of an intense warzone for a couple weeks. He's been silent since then. Sometimes I think about all the other small interactions that people have with those caught up in this and the sudden loss of contact and how much this fighting has affected everyone. I hope that all this fighting will end as soon as possible so everyone can go home, rebuild, and reunite with their friends and family.
Sinking a Russian sub will be easier said than done, assuming they don't manage to catch it by surprise. Ukrainians will need something with ASW capability. Perhaps a dedicated ASW helicopter or something, but then they'll need to protect it as well...
I feel like many facets of Turkey could be described with the phrase "It's complicated". Definitely looking forward to that video!
"It's complicated" is as all-encompassing (and useless) as "A wizard did it." It's signage for an off-ramp into a different hour-plus power point presentation.
Turkey is a complicated country…
Perun, you are an amazing breath of fresh air - erudite, methodical, and with a fresh perspective. I'm so glad that you decided to become a TH-camr since I (and I know I'm not the only one) feel that I have a deeper appreciation about the situation in Ukraine, and the military complex in general, thanks to you. Thank you good sir for being you and doing what you do!
“Buy with their sign on enlistment bonus, put in the garage and never use”
I feel personally attacked
""Controversial’ only means this will lose you votes. 'Courageous' means this will lose you the election." Sir Humphrey Appleby quote.
"Bold move" Perun. Translation: Kiss your arse goodbye.
If the Russians start sinking vessels in the black sea, Ukraine should _definitely_ consider issuing letters of marque & retaliation world wide, permitting seizure of Russian flagged vessels on the high sea...
@@cancermcaids7688I think at this point Ukraine can argue pretty persuasively that they’re not a successor state to Imperial Russia. 🙂
@@cancermcaids7688 An interesting point of international law. But also, did not Russia abrogate the Treaty of 1856 at some point? Did that not technically include the bit about letters of marque etc? Did the Russian Empire ever issue letters of marque?
@@cancermcaids7688 It will be interesting to see whether Russia sinks ships under other than Ukrainian flags in the Black Sea... that sort of lawlessness probably justifies much of what Ukraine might do in response...
Lol Perun always with the timely videos
Imo we should take Medvedev's statement totally seriously.
So much so that one day when we get our hands on him, we shall apply to him what he advocated for all this time.
Feed him his own medicine.
@@JB-pu8ik From what we know, he self-medicates with copious amounts of wheat ethanol.
The Russian government encouraging tourism in an active warzone is a sad indication of its callous disregard for human life, even that of its own citizens.
Oh common. Lots of crimean resorts are owned by the oligarchs. Ofc Putin don't want them to have any losses.
... or their desperation in pretending that everything is fine. Because to stop the tourism, they'd have to acknowledge that a problem exists.
What is up, fellow beau peep?
@@henryburby6077 well howdy there internet person
The Enforcer went over the multitude of steps Russian vacationers have to go through to reach Crimea (eg. passports, and they can “have a snack”) with the bridge gone. It‘s smh to believe any Russian traveller would actually go through the Russian equivalent of a Chevy Chase Family Vacation. :O
Happy Perun Day to us! These videos are such an absolute treat. Thank you for taking the time to share your analysis with us. It's greatly increased my ability to understand what's happening in Ukraine, and in wars in general. I hope you're well. So long as you make these videos, you have a fan in me, and many others I know.
I've been watching this extensively for the last month. One of the best discoveries on TH-cam for me.
Perun, you do an excellent and tremendous job on this channel, uncovering the fog of war and putting everything about this war on the bigger picture for the wider world.
And your constant reminders about the fact that there are human lives and human tragedy behind cold numbers of war mean world. As for a guy from the Ukrainian military, I do really appreciate that
He really does a good job doesn’t he?
Also, best of luck from the USA. I really wish we were giving y’all more. Lift the ban on striking Russian territory with western weapons. If they didnt want to have missiles hitting Russian territory they shouldn’t have invaded. Send ATAKEMs, F-16 with volunteer pilots and crews, more M1A1s, long range cruise missiles and whatever else will help and can be fielded short-medium term. People talk about depleting stocks needed for a hypothetical war, but these weapons were made to stop the ruzzians in the event of war and any war with China is likely to be mainly a naval/air war, so 2000 abrams sitting in the desert arnt going to be missed. Neither are the high flight hour but well maintained F16s that are being replaced with F35.
Ukraine will be victorious with proper support. Y’all have balls of steel and hearts of iron. Keep up the fight! Victory will come! Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦
Good luck from Australia, warrior. I wish we were doing more to help like our US friend said above. Slava Ukraine!
@@Stepheno0125 Can you imagine being the USA. You get to fight an old foe. You get to weaken them nearly to the point of collapse. You fight them with weapons you're going to throw away anyways because they are past their best before date. And, best of all, you get to fight them without sending any of your own people into battle. BEST. DEAL. EVER.
Yes, he is great isn't he. I used to write long, flowery praises in PERUNs honour for the first year. Now I just say that we, his audience, we few, we happy few, are spoiled rotten.
You're videos are a reminder to me of how important an expert opinion is on making sense of the world today. It's amazing to me that geopolitics can effect me here in the middle of Florida, where rules don't technically exist, but time and again your analysis has helped me to understand why things are happening right here at home. How odd it is that someone from under-Narnia could make sense off the world for a swamp dweller like me. Cheers from the mosquito infested hell that is North-Central Florida.
What's the strategic objective behind bombing food supplies you ask?
Russian regime in their minds isn't waging a war on Ukraine. They are waging a global geopolitical conflict against NATO. Their long term strategic goal is destabilizing and weakening NATO, especially in Europe - which in practice means weakening and destabilizing Europe. By starving Africa they cause even more migration into Europe, which further exacerbates Europe's migrant crisis.
Weaponizng food and using mass starvation as a political weapon is straight out of the Russian playbook. Holodomor, anyone?
I’d like to see a video on “trump cards” - big red buttons Russia can still push to make things a lot more difficult for Ukraine, but also themselves. After blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam, failing to blow up the nuclear power plant, and pulling out of the grain deal for realsies, I can’t help but think they might be running out.
Well, one scenario is Belarus is colonised more thoroughly and combined with Wagner to become a northern front against Ukraine, full of disposable people who can be sent to their deaths because they're not Russians anyway, or they're supposed 'traitor mercenaries'.
The Belarus army is a joke and not a particularly funny one either, but if they begin conscripting and training (with Wagner help) you can easily field 50K conscripts in 3-6 months from now.
I suppose they could also commit suicide by using WMDs, but the consequences of that would be severe to Russia-ending in nature. People didn't mind when Russia gassed a bunch of Arab villagers in Syria, but dropping poison gas on Kiyv will elicit a much more fierce response. Their worst-case scenario would probably be a naval blockade of Russia, or their Indian bootlickers bowing out.
@@nvelsen1975Arming the Belarusian population almost certainly leads to them overthrowing their own government. They seem a lot more politicised and a lot less fatalistic than, say, the Russian population.
The way I see it they have very few options left:
-the less likely is a nuclear strike on kiyv. Big gamble, probably nato would intervene directly, but there is a chance ukraine would surrender.
-Securing china's support somehow, also not very likely considering china has its own problems, strong economic ties with the west and very little to gain from helping russia to that degree.
-putting pressure on energy exporting countries and try to choke off europe, hard to do considering the USA is one of them and europe has some indigenous production, but potentially could force the EU to negotiate.
-dial up the info war, in particular in the US, bribe a few politicians and influence public opinion to make them pull the plug on support for ukraine. This has likely been happening the whole time, the fact russia adopted "questionable" military strategies sabotages somewhat their effort, but if successful it would change things a lot.
-the last trump card is complete transition to a war economy and mass mobilization, probably the most likely, effective and safe option, still potentially dangerous for the regime though
@@diametheuslambda
It would eventually lead to overthrowing Lukashenko yes, but that's not Putin's problem, which is why he might use the Belarussians as cannon fodder.
I thought the dam was destroyed through neglect? IE the Russian soldiers capturing it and then not knowing how to maintain it(leaving the gates closed and building up water, causing a collapse).
Next time you go swimming with the dolphins keep in mind flippers distant cousin might be in Russian military service 😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️
This is one pf many reasons i love peruns presentations his dry sense of humor is always on point
Seems like Perun made this video a week too early.
Looking video week later. It's interesting how situation evolved. One Russian war ship down, one Russian tanker down.
I love your videos! Does making them occupy all of your time throughout the week?
thanks mate. I don't think I've had any real spare time since March 2022 but I'm not complaining. It's a privilege to be able to do this and other related work.
How do you have such in depth videos to the questions I just start asking? I literally just learned yesterday of Ukraine's remote controlled naval drones, outside of some combat video from a year ago I think. I'm hoping this is addressed in the video but if not, you can only do so much, lol.
Anyways, as always, thank you for the constant stream of amazing content! It truly is appreciated.
If you go back through Perun's videos, he did an excellent one on the sinking of the Moskva and the overall state of Russia's navy not long after she was sunk.
Turns out the Raccoon is indeed a much mightier animal than the Leopard. As a German I'm not mad about it though. Hopefully Ukrainians will get their raccoon back. And Crimea with it.
Should we ever have a major catastrophe that extinguishes mankind the raccoon will take over because it is smaller and has paws that appear to be little hands. Also cockroaches and certain cheeky birds.
@@kti5682 That would be interesting if only raccoons and cockroaches exist. Don't raccoons eat cockroaches, and won't they be forced to if the garbage cans that humans so thoughtfully provide are no longer available?
They could name their next indigenous MRAP or APC racoon? Would be a fun touch.
What? They kidnapped Rocket?
Right, that does it Putin, - NO MERCY!
@@dougerrohmer The neighbour reports that the little Basterds took an interest in fruits from the apple tree as well. So I'm totally expecting them to be flexible in their diet.
All I want for Christmas is a Polish-Mongolian border.
You will probalby get western ukrane instead.
6 days later... and the Black Sea fleet keeps on shrinking...
The Black Sea surface fleet is being "modified" into submarines.
I just cant fathom how blessed we are with your content
Thanks Perun
These drone boats are basically modern equivalents of fire ships
Much cheaper then a fire ship though. Proper fire ships were often big ships. Maybe a fire boat, as in converted rowing boat?
Ninja
And better, in the sense you don't have to loose good sailors to make em work.
@@Destroyer_V0 didn’t need to lose sailors in a fireship. They would use the wind and the tide to let them float slowly towards the enemy, or they’d set sails, bind the wheel to a course for an enemy fleet, then set the ship ablaze and leave for the small rowing boat taken along for that purpose.
Usually fireships were used on fleets on anchor, or ones that were otherwise non-mobile. Very few sailors would willingly join a suicide mission with zero chance of survival
Will love to see the one on Turkey. My sense is that it has been tapdancing (randomly? expertly? certainly interestingly) with its many partners, allies and potential adversaries on the geopolitical stage and it would be interesting to see where its military is positioned in that. I think they are using a lot of soft power (position, foot in two camps geographically and religiously and "principle") to obtain advantage from the current chaos around them. I don't have any clear view on what their aims are or might be but it certainly isn't boring.
It seems like it's a rule that NATO must have at least one member state that's always getting up to some shenanigans. It used to be France but now Turkey has taken over that role.
@@hedgehog3180they are being Furkey? Or Turrance?
"Any confrontation between Turkey and Russia, would be a confrontation between NATO and Russia..." 👍👍👍👍😎😎👹👹👹👹
16:15 Medvedev adopts these ludicrous and indictable positions on RSM because, to Putin, he's the only heir-apparent to the throne of the Tsar; just kind of like "Kill me and this maniac takes the Reign." That's all.
So.... the Russian's janky bridge fell apart and Putin responds by starving a couple million Africans. That's some impressive 20 dimensional chess.
And nato responds ending a milllllion ukranians.
"what the fuck are you talking about?"
-- walter white
Where will those Africans go, it will cause another refugee crisis in europe and likely on an unprecedented scale.
@@NathansHVAC how??? give us an answer it si RUSSIA THAT STATED THEY ARE GOING TO LIQUIDATE 2-3 MILLION UKRANIANS
I appreciate your continuing emphasis on the humanitarian disaster that is this war - and the ripple effects spreading the tragedy into other countries.
So much coverage treats this conflict as if it’s a video game with daily installments, giving equipment/manpower scorecards on losses, as we wait for one side to level up. A large part of the viewing audience has no experience of true war (most of us are lucky enough to live mostly peaceful lives), but we all need to remember that war destroys more than tanks.
Thank you for your frequent reminders that this conflict has a deep and widening cost for millions of innocent people.
But think of the humanitarian benefits... one guy with a serious illness got an ego boost for a few weeks.
Touché!
Poor countries are starting to realize that putin would let them starve and/or go broke just to gain an advantage in their war
Honestly, I suspect russia wants a famine because that would cause allot more people to try to enter Europe
Thank you Perun for covering the Black Sea and grain topics. This is a very interesting but heart breaking issue.
I don't think that the Russian surface ship will be operating on the western Black Sea for very long as they will be attacked by the Ukrainian maritime drones. It's hard to enforce a proper blockade without having the ability to stop and board to question merchant ships.
The Russians can indiscriminately sink all ships heading from/to Ukraine with their subs and long range missiles but that is not a proper blockade. It's just the Russians going crazy. The Ukrainian can easily retaliate by using their maritime drones to indiscriminately sink all ships heading from/to Russia too. Russia, Ukraine, and the world would lose big time if this happens.
Using expensive guided missile to attack general food storage facilities is a losing tactics. There are more storage facilities than there are Russian missiles and the result won't be much better than the attack against the electrical infrastructure. It makes more sense to attack the port infrastructure and perhaps the storage around the port. But the Russians can't seem to control themselves or are incompetent and they keep on vindictively attacking civilians instead of militarily significant targets.
Thanks for this overview. Very good and useful. It will be interesting to see how it’s going, but my hunch is Ukraine expects to continue exporting grain across the Black Sea.
Never mind poorer states, _everyone_ is affected by a sudden enormous drop in the global supply of wheat. If Ukraine's exports are suddenly blocked by Russia, that means the price of those exports on the global market goes up as supply falls. When we're talking about wheat, that affects damn near *everything* in the food industry, directly or indirectly.
Russia ending the grain deal could be less about actually blocking exports and more about controlling prices.
If memory serves, the grain deal came about because a huge amount of grain was trapped in Odessa and the Ukrainians were on the verge of taking in a harvest with nowhere to put it.
Recreating that problem means Russia can time high grain prices to coincide with the Russian harvest while also hurting Ukraine by forcing them to flood the market whenever the black sea ports open again.
@@GrizabeeblesSo, short term gain? I cannot imagine the world looking favorably on what amounts to keeping food to ransom.
@@pechudin9086 -- It's war. Russia already blew up the Kakhovka dam and compromised Crimea's water supply for *YEARS* in order to delay a Ukranian assault across the Dnipro river for 2-3 months. This is just more of the same.
Over 90% of Ukranian wheat is harvested during July and August. Like it or not, Russia needs to delay that income if it wants to undermine Ukraine's warfighting ability.
You have one of the best communities out there, because you deliver some of the best and most comprehensive content in your field (in a entertaining and often funny manner, few other conent creators are matching, when it comes to these topics).
And while a lot of your followers watch your video within minutes or hours to your release, I hope more will eventually reward your videos with likes to boost the algorithm! At time of watching less than 10% of people watching have liked the video, come on guys, show some love.
So here's the thing, ever thought where the particularly good year for Russian grain comes from? I surmise it's not Russian at all; rather that in March 2022 when Russia had some military successes, they emptied out the Ukrainian grain silos along the way, in the territory they largely lost already last autumn. Trucks and rail could deliver army supplies one way and grain the other, improving utilisation like that.
So that surplus has to be temporary.
Russia is still holding a chunk of Ukrainian territory, but i would be very surprised if they will have a great harvest there. For one a lot of those fields are now defence fortfications and for other, i heard stories of mismanagement by the gangs that are effectively ruling there.
Thanks you for this informed perspective about recent events in/around the Black Sea. Deliberate targeting of food supplies that impact the global market and significantly raise the specter of famine is certainly a "dick move", but pales in comparison to the original decision to invade your neighbor in the first place...
x2
Not really, a famine in Africa would kill more people than the entire population of Ukraine.
russia definitely has a taste for famines
I would love to see a Greek Taiwanese, and Ukrainian partnership that develops Sea drone warfare over the next decade.
I'm amazed that Iran doesn't have thousands of these.
I strongly suspect the South Korean will want to be in on that, from a development & sales standpoint at least.
I understand that Ancient Greece is seafaring merchant civilization and Greece has inherited traditional cargo shipping in the 21th century. But testing grounds and needs between the Mediterranean versus the West Pacific is very different, the seas are harsher here. Last week, there was Typhoon Talim, Typhoon Doksuri this week, and next week might be typhoon Khanun.
I could imagine Taiwan right now buying up all the jet skis it can find.
But I imagine that Chinese detection of tiny surface craft is better than the Russians. But maybe not, who knows... China's emphasis on building a numerically large navy of tiny boats might mean that each and every boat has minimal if any defense.
@@tonysu8860 "numerically large" China counts fishing boats as warships. By tonnage they aren't even close to being a peer power.
Perun: "There will be no sleep for my audience in Australia."
I am watching the Oval test so have to decide to run it in the background
A blessing to those of us oncall.
One of the options to be able to export grain for Africa etc is to use chinese (PRC)ships. Russia wouldnt dare sink them and China would be the player helping to feed the developing world.
why does this exact same comment keep popping up over and over?
@@NathansHVAC Because it is a good idea?
@@someonespotatohmm9513 The ports are blown up. How does the grain get loaded without getting wet?
Boy this aged incredibly well.
Regarding a potential Russian blockade / restriction of shipping into and out of Ukraine, rather than Turkey, I think a potential player (and winner if they do) here could be *_CHINA_* . China has one of the largest merchant fleets in the world; accounting for possibly in the area of a quarter of global container shipping. It would be absolutely within the realms of possibility for the Chinese government to insure its vessels to enter the Black Sea in spite of the war. Similarly, the Russian navy would have a huge incentive not to target, harass, and damage (let alone sink!) Chinese vessels due to Russia's relationship with China. Aside from the potential revenue/profits and securing its own food supply, China is constantly seeking ways to improve its image and reputation on the world stage. Coming in to the rescue, especially with attention towards supplying food to Africa and food insecure countries, would be a good way to upstage the US and NATO, especially if the latter two are unable to come up with a solution of their own.
That would be an interesting PR move from the Chinese. Certainly allow it to take a front stage in a crisis that has so far left it (mostly) on the side.
Nice idea, and certainly an option if pooland wasn't on muskovies side...
China has its own population to feed, and are sniffing around south America for said food supplies. That's why its sending its graduates into the Countryside fo two years, instead of into professional work.
@@someonespotatohmm9513Huh? Modern Poland is as anti-Russia as a country can be.
If Beijing did that, then it might damage their relationship with Moscow. Looking past Moscow's bullshit justification for the loss of the grain deal, the real reason is that they want to damage Kyiv by strangling Ukrainian grain shipments. Moscow wouldn't appreciate Beijing circumventing Moscow's blockade.
Also, Moscow could blow up Chinese-flagged ships with stealthily-placed mines in a way that they could plausibly blame Kyiv for it afterwards. The Chinese flag might not offer as much protection as you'd think.
Perun's videos are so good, i wish Australia was real.
Emutopia, on the other hand, is. All hail the glorious flightless empire! ✊
My absolute favorite weekly power point presentation
The Humour of Perun always keeps me engaged. The "Sufficiently stiff drink" joke was great.
As a Canadian sailor we always shuffled our ship around in Thunder Bay to get a load of the proper grains , at maximum 35,000 tons. We were restricted by he locks and a ocean going ship usually took 3 of us. Most gain moved east ( I think ) due to cost.
Quote of the day - "It's not a chess move, it's a dick move".
Ah yes!
Actually I’ve considered the Black Sea to be the crucial front from the start.
Edited to add: Ukraine has been dredging the Danube. I forget how many feet deeper they’ve made it, but it is significant, allowing heavier loads to transit up to the Rhine.
They’ve also been frantically upgrading Danube port infrastructure to handle more material. I have no data on how much extra can be shipped this way.
Great information! It makes a lot of sense for the Ukrainians to be doing this.
Danube ports were also bombed few days ago
@@dgiulio2677
Yes, they were. It is going to depend on how Ukraine deploys its air defence assets.
Reallifelore released a video just on this a few days ago
@@samuelpaik
Yes, saw it. Also Zeihan mentioned it.
My Sunday night fix 😊
Regards from Adelaide
Technically Ukrainian farmers already had to deal with a nuclear apocalypse.
I'd just like to congratulate the Ukrainians on getting the Jeune École to kind of work. France was just too ahead of it's time.
LOL I Drachinifel this comment.
Sounds similar to the British fleet vs. the Spanish armada? :/
@@advancetotabletop5328not quite, the concept centres around utilising a fleet of smaller (and cheaper) but heavily armed ships and submarines to defeat much larger navies. Ultimately it never quite achieved its goals at the time but with the advent of drones we're seeing it across a variety of spheres not just naval warfare.
@@advancetotabletop5328 those were equal sized ships, but different sized forces. Not the same.
Perun, why do you think we see only above-surface unmanned vessels? Why not submerge them just a little bit?
There is at least one semi-submersible claimed to be in development. There are extra challenges in building an affordable semi-sub with the same performance characteristics...but I would expect to see evidence of those being used eventually.
A follow up question, how are these drones different to existing torpedoes? Range? Cost? Are existing anti torpedo measures not sufficient to deal with them?
@@PerunAUdon't need same performance, speed wise.
Put a couple of Brimstone on a swarm of submerged drones and fire a bunch of of those at Sevastopol harbor from a few km out...
I hear OceanGate was working on one...
Well, if they're submerged you can't see them, so...
Youre doing great man, keep up the great work! Blankets or studio, we're not here for the production quality, but the excellent analysis.
@PerunAU "DlCK Move", don't I know it 😆
Today, a Russian warship was heavilly damaged by unmanned drone in Novorosiysk, so seems like Perun is right once more, drones are a big deal!
He's also right, russia enforcing a blockade is going to be difficult.
I would be curious to see your view on the role of static defenses and fortifications historically and in this war.
How each side uses them, their impact, how to breach them, etc.
It seems like a very topical subject.
The loss of the grain deal honestly depresses me. I work in an agricultural country and have family and friends in the agricultural sector. We have been projecting food shortage due to low production due to increased weather problems and decrease in interest in agri by new generations. The additional stress on food supply is going to choke us. I am earning good money but it's fast getting runover by inflation. This salary 1 yr ago would have been godly. Now it's just enough. I'm fucking depressed.
Try being retired (or mostly so) and essentially on a fixed income... 😞
@@SpringIsBACK My parents' retirement income was projected to be enough for them to live on but now the family is talking about how much we can contribute from our salaries to keep our parents comfortable... depressing as hell. I really cannot see how I could even plan on living to old age in this economy 😔
Good luck to us.
I would think that food shortages work to your advantage, as prices for your product will go up. Unless you are experiencing a serious decline in yield as well.
@@teresabenson3385 Sadly, we are. Prolonged droughts followed by super typhoons cause a significant decline in yield and consistency. This is on top of inflating costs of operation so yeah. Profit margins are either slim or negative even with price increases to match market prices. It's depressing. 🥲
@@teresabenson3385I think he indicated that he earned a salary, so not an owner of a farm I guess.
Given the importance of basic needs like food production, the reaction by the rest of the world to Russia's actions is inevitable. Sanctions and arms shipments to Ukraine may well give way to more active participation. Russia just seems to keep blundering it's way into making itself the world's enemy.
I mean, fucking with food that's earmarked for China is definitely not the smartest thing they could do
Russia proposes progressively more and more surreal ideas. One has to wonder about their intelligence and sanity?
What I wonder about the blockade: How did the interntional shippers react to the end of the deal? Even if it's impractial from a Russian standpoint to create a full blockade, maybe the international shippers are so scared of Russian bombs they avoid shipping anyway. In that sense, the Russians don't need to carry out a full blockade, only the threat is bad enough.
To further elaborate, this could of course be countered by other countries if they would defend the shippers. But would any country actually take that risk?
EDIT: I like your counter to the argument of 'UA's grain mostly ended up in Europe anyway, so it did not impact the global market too much'. I've heard that argument in an important national (Dutch) newspaper without any pushback. While the point of 'it will drive up the price no matter where it ends up' seems so obvious.
I think an empty threat without actual enforcement is going to be of short lived effectiveness. Someone is going to sail regardless, and then word is going to get around that it's actually not so dangerous. Russia has already run out of credibility on numerous threats.
Another Russian propaganda myth is that they can cover Ukraine's shortfall on grain. They're generous now because they have a temporary surplus, they have the surplus because they emptied Ukrainian silos in early mid 2022 before they lost a bunch of territory. Russia still holds some, but for one, farming on Surovikin line is going to prove difficult, for other, newly arrived Russian gangs have been stealing farmers' tools and equipment and SOMETIMES selling them back to them, so i doubt the harvest is going to come out great there.
Thanks! I was waiting for this to drop so I have something to listen to while I do my chores. My gf was getting impatient.
Your name is great
Ending the grain deal and attacking grain facilities is one of the most stupid decisions of the last 18 months. There are so many countries that could claim ownership Russia has given almost anyone causus belli.
Let alone those storage facilities were full of grain for China. I wonder how China will feel about losing that food shipment?
And who will attack a nuclear nation over grain?
@@8darktraveler8 Plenty of countries have attached nuclear armed nations over less however direct attacks are not the only option. Imagine you are an Asian leader for example, and Russia has just destroyed the food your nation needs, you can't attack Russia and they can do little against you, if you decide to use it as a pretext you can seize any Russian flagged vessel or aircraft and Russian owned property on your territory.
@@Matt_The_Hugenot Definitely, anyone can do anything, I thoroughly doubt anything will happen.
This is Western oligarchs vs Eastern oligarchs, this whole thing is to find out who makes money while peasants die, to pretend anything humanitarian is important to rich people, past gaining more influence, money and power would be to live in lala land.
The Kremlin increasingly looks like a toddler having a temper tantrum.
I'm of the firm opinion it needs to disappear. I don't mind Russia, Moscow doesn't even bother me. But that "fortress government" is just too paranoid.
I am a simple man: Perun uploads, I just leave everything I am doing and watch the video.
It is debatable if the inventor of these naval drones had some inspiration from south american drug smugler's semi submersibles, but I'm sure the drug smugler's are watching this development of low observable naval drones used in Russo-Ukranian war.. It will be interesting to see what developments there will be on that front.
This is perfect...I just listened to the previous episode (again) about the black sea fleet. ❤
Oh course Perun is 5 days too early and Ukraine goes and nails an LST in the Russian segment of the black sea
How's he too early? He kind of predicted it. Now he's looking pretty legit.
Fancy seeing you here papa bear
Excellent video as always! Regarding safeguarding shipping, I for one would like to see UN flagged ships in the Black Sea.. as a minimum for grain bought for the World Food Program.
This video misses the entire point of blowing up the ports in odesa. The blockade is actually the blown up ports.
@NathansHVAC Ukraine has proven that blown up infrastructure isn't that big of a hassle compared to other problem, heck how many times has the train system been hit only for two guys smoking cigarettes going out and fixing their section?
Brilliant show, thank you for explaining these very difficult circumstances to us ordinary people. ❤❤❤
I feel that in the age of GPS, cheap drones, AI navigation and satellites, you can wreak havoc on another nation's navy without having your own.
Especially in a pond (700 miles × 160 miles) called the Black Sea.
I am waiting to see how russia plans on blockading odessa with harpoon missiles and these murder speed boats haunting the sea with 300kg of explosive payload,
The middle ground between small firearms worth less than a million and strategic weapons worth over a hundred million is slowly deprecating... it's becoming militarily stupid to buy anything but a dji drone or a nuke
The US Department of Defense has learned that they are overly reliant on GPS as electronic warfare has significantly reduced the accuracy of the precision weapons and knocked out the signals that communicate with drones.
It will be interesting what DARPA comes up with as a solution.
I wonder if naval drones can be navitaged using cameras and celestial bodies + compass, etc. I'd love some educated people to share if they're already using it/ what are the limitations. Perpahs when the drone navigates using stars, it can use a camera to visually recognize an object that's similar to a bridge support column...
@@rasselbidou If you're planning to do a naval landing, you're going to need large transport ships if you want to do it with any measure of effectiveness. In what is mostly a land war, I agree with you, but there are many scenarios in which the "couple hundred million dollar chunk of floating metal" is still useful
Well Perun mate, I guess ya welcome. But of course does one of the best channels on TH-cam have one of the best community!
keep it up, Slava Ukraini ❤🎉