China’s Economic Crash Looms: Real Estate, Infrastructure Fail, Debt Exceeds 90% of GDP, Xi Helpless
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 ต.ค. 2024
- According to 2022 data from the International Monetary Fund, China's local government debt had already reached 92 trillion RMB, accounting for 76% of GDP. Economic expert Dr. Cheng Xiaonong wrote in Radio Free Asia on February 27, 2023, that the total debt of China's central and local governments is as high as 110 trillion RMB, equivalent to 91% of GDP, far exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60%. Dr. Cheng believes that local governments in China are "unlikely to repay their debts." He warned that if the massive debt problem is not resolved, China will face a comprehensive and extremely severe economic disaster.
Thus, both of China's major investment fields-real estate and infrastructure-are in decline.
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The only time I see Chinese get angry, emotional and anti-establishment is when they lose money.
for real, they're always hysterical about $$
Amazing observation. Having one ruling class and a police state? No problem. Being spied on 24/7? No problem. Polluted air and water? No problem. I lost a few bucks? Problem.
@LEV1ATHYN A few bucks? I'm not defending the chineese here, but they are losing thousands of dollars here
5G AI financial expertise
@@Darwinnunez83 "A few bucks" is a turn of phrase. Money. Sometimes it's a life savings sometimes it's a trivial amount. I saw a video of a Chinese going bonkers because the bus fare was raised a few cents.
Who are they gonna sell these houses to? Zero immigration, young people unemployed and few people getting married / having kids. Why would anyone buy a house?
Investors looking to profit from rising property values. Oh yeah, that was a year ago.
@@brianboye8025no that was 5 years ago
Exactly 🎉
go watch the big short movie u will understand
@@SEEMEEGaming you think what happened in the 2008/09 crisis has anything to do with the current situation in China you know zero about either.
I respect the effort you put into each and every video that you post. Long term investors are in a good position for the final recovery since they know that the market and economy will eventually turn around. I'm doing really well individually, and I'll continue to work hard in this competitive industry. My portfolio is up 43% at the moment. As I progressively add more stocks, I'm going to step back and observe how everything plays out.
How did you manage to succeed? I want to invest more wisely because I have a lump sum that inflation is slowly depleting.
I diversified my $50K portfolio across several markets with the help of an investment advisor, and I was able to earn almost $200K in net profit among high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds
That is impressive! my portfolio has remained stagnate. Who is guiding you please?
You can simply search her up.
Thank you for your fantastic tip. I verified her, wrote her, and she seemed proficient.
CCP must hate this channel.
WOW, EVEN THAT IS A BIT TOO MUCH FOR ME RICK!
Probably, most that watch it hate the CCP
Communism hates the truth !
actually it's quite funny 😊
But CCP cuts-off all outside media but theirs
This is very bad. Everyone knew the bubble would pop, but no one wanted to get off the money train.
YOU GOTTA UNDERSTAND CHYNA!
youre so gullible lol, this channel has been saying china crash! for years now and it's doing fine
It’s funny I was walking on a street back in April and next to me was a book store and out of curiosity I decided to look what they had ,What i found almost had me delete myself out of laughter because it was a book literally called : “China the bubble that never pops” and I couldn’t have written a more badly aged title .
You just know this was written back when everyone believed in the “China century “ myth meanwhile China will be lucky to avoid a second warlord era .
"BIGGER FOOL THEORY"
@@DiscoveryMarket I LOVE CHINA! CHYNA! ORGAN PEASANTS...! - Little pinks CCP children living in a Vancouver or Sydney condo in the comments
Dozens of whole cities sit empty, how could Real Estate go down?
Doom is imminent.
WOW SO GOOD!
only in your country😂
@@Wumao50centarmysilence wumao
And this is why banking on real estate is f****** insane
which investment isn't risky?
@@Wumao50centarmy S&P 500 ETFs hahaha. Avg rate of return is around 10% for past 100 years roughly. Whole entire market has to cave to lose it all and if that happens that means you got way bigger issues than fake fiat currency or wealth.
the asian tiger is showing us how its done. we are chinese therefore we can do no wrong. a few basics from commerce 101. dont spend money you do not actually own. rudeness and intransigence have cost them a lot of international business. their bad actions are starting to come home to roost. great news for india, thiland, vietnam and that great free democracy of taiwan. might have to get some chinese currency. it is cheaper than toilet paper. go the paper tiger oops i mean asian tiger...
5G AI expertise
Communism does not consider 'supply and demand' as something real.
Strange how people do not know that communism is against capitalism and refuses the "capitalist thinking".
They think it is invented ideology just like communism.
Your "basics" don't get taught in communist countries. They are communists! They do not teach economy and msrket capitalism.
Patriotism of Winnie PorkPooh
- With stimulus and measures, China's debt will be at 400% to 500% of its GDP in the next decade, according to Reuters.
-Chinese 🇨🇳 property Ponzi sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing
-Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down.
-Foreign investment is falling over 90% compared to it's peak in 2018.
-Foreign visitors are down 96% compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
-Consumer prices are experiencing hyperstagdeflation.
-Youth unemployment hits over 21% (in reality 50%+ after eliminating faked numbers), a record.
-It's fast shrinking workforce is 10 years old than neighboring countries.
- During the years 1990-2021, the US printed 6.5 time more money while China printed 147 times.
- It has printed more money than the US and Japan combined, while it's economy is only half of them.
- Current Chinese debt-to-gdp is already highest in the world, at 300%, according to Bloomberg.
daughter: lives in US brother: australian green card daughter in law: british green card sister: canadian citizen brother in law: canadian citizen second sister: australian green card second brother in law: australian green card
WOW SO GOOD Organ Leeks #sloprosperity #theskydontlie
This is all due to ga1n of function and not telling the world what they had done
so will US debt to gdp.
The oinkler is crashing the market with no survivors.
@@garymartin9777 If this is some bad attempt at covert shillism. then its a joke. The difference is that at least in the US manufacturing is still functional to some extent, they still do have Intel (Lol). But in Chyna.... Hyper-stagdeflation.... Tang Ping... Plundering by naked officials running off with money.. Oh.. boy.
Do you know where in the US, Winnie the Pooh's daughter lives? Does she have a green card, or is she a citizen?
People bought second or third houses thinking they would get rich quick.Taking on high mortgages costing more than the houses are worth because of economics 101, Supply and Demand.
It`s a painful lesson to learn for those who overlooked the obvious result.Instead of second or third houses they should have invested in gold at the time.Now they are buying gold when it is high, just like they did in the the real estate market for these fortune hunters.A Day Late and a Yuan Short.
Maybe they don't have access to data most of the world does. To them, it is normal for house prices to go up only. Many outside China knows how expensive it is there, even comparing it to London or Manhattan. People outside are aware that something similar happened in Japan.
Maybe you know people who invest in real estate to get rich. I don't. I don't think the investors are dominant force in real estate in the macro view. Most people were buying homes for their kids. They weren't investments for riches, they were investments for their children.
@@sinan2.71 I don't buy that they were investments for their children. There aren't nearly enough children for all the new houses being built. Some higher up politician was saying that there are as many empty buildings as there are people in china.
@@Rakhtor True! Even Xi jin Ping had to say something along the lines of ... "houses are to live in, not for speculation" ... Even he is aware of what people are doing.
Communism does not consider 'supply and demand' as something real.
Strange how people do not know that communism is against capitalism and refuses the "capitalist thinking".
They think it is invented ideology just like communism.
That's what we call bad luck.....sometimes you win, sometimes you loose. If you don't use your brain...you loose...
Let me guess. Those families trying to unload their homes at deep discounts are selling their second or third home. They are not selling their primary residence.
The only positive is that they have never been lived in. Chinese are very reluctant to buy and live in houses that have had other people living in them. It is superstition about bad luck. I would bet those properties are even lower value.
@@brianboye8025 They will try to buy it cheap and then do that Feug Shui thing to drive away the evil spirits.
many families own more than 1 home,this is not the US or Africa where people are homeless.
US housing price drop max’d out at -19%. But, the oversupply of 2.5M homes rapidly went to under supply by 2010-11.
CCP China has years and years of oversupply.
The supply will never be absorbed given a collapsing population
@@shanghaiffgg But what if the building quality collapse faster then the population?
@@llothar68 They already have enough completed stock to house the entire population of China twice. Even if they never build another apartment there will be enormous and ever increasing oversupply.
@@llothar68 Vaporizing hard assets...is not a positive for an economy.
That destruction of wealth has real consequences.
ccp is so great. they built 2 houses for each citizen.
I own 5 actually.
Those buildings are all tofu dreg projects and they are all UNSAFE with inferior materials. All are collapsible with fake rebars that bend and twist.
Clearly educated by youtube videos ,what a shame .
Winnie the pooh with donkey cant handle
brainless comment
That is shockingly high for a massively-corrupt developing (sorry, “emerging”) economy which is nowhere near investment-grade
Yes, former purchasers would be annoyed by the price decrease but the residence could simply be lived in. The problem is that many buyers see real estate as something to flip for a capital gain profit. Will the Chinese ever learn that markets go up AND down?
They have nothing else to invest in. Can't invest abroad. Can't do due diligence it's against the law. No transparency means markets can't work and bubbles run wild. They still have 90 EV companies. State capitalism with heavy subsidies leads to unproductive investments. A communist party running a proto capitalist economy is bound to run into problems.
Chinese love to gamble with their money. But when they lose they blame others. Life is full of uncertainty..sometimes you win n sometimes you lose.👈😁😁
That's true but when you live in China you don't expect to lose and you're not used to losing .
China desperately needs free market capitalism 🤑💲💵🤗💸🗽💱💰🙌
Greed and corruption, leads to total destruction. They only have themselves to blame.
Who? The citizens or goverment?
@@kojinmaster both
I appreciate the work this lady does in the voice over 👍
Rice farming will solve the unemployment problem 🇨🇳
How do analysis, newspapers, businesses, and other entities in China even talk about this without being sentenced to death or a life sentence in a labor camp? I thought the ultimate goal of the Chinese government is to have all of its citizens tremble in fear and obey without objections and never ever question the Government even if the entire ship is going down.
RMB means is Ruining Monetary Bankruptcy
happens in dictatorships.
Usa has 125 precent debt to gdp atm
@@testpilot. I'm not in the US
@@joshuawaddell9247 yes but that isn't a dictatorship and it still happens. The root is mismanagement and corruption.
@@testpilot. Yeah I guess that's why there are thousands of desperate Americans travelling halfway around the world and queuing up to sneak into China 🤣
@@joshuawaddell9247 usa is not a dictator ship and it still happens. Its about corruption and mismanagement
Ah…China, forgot this country exist in this world
It's that country that keeps overfishing in waters that aren't theirs
Those who lost out in china's real estate market are probably luckier than they realize. In a few years the buildings will likely fall down anyway.
China aside, I thank y'all for these videos because I can just watch these in the background and still pick some information up because I tune out an awful lot of the videos I watch in the background.
too many houses in supply now
This is karma.
As Jesus said 'you reap what you sow'
YES THEY ARE EVIL EMPIRE !
@@nicholasrockall7308religion is a cancer as ccp is so ShutTheHellUp !!
Don't let Amazon's AMX1WT pass you by. This is a monumental moment in history, and you don't want to be left out of the loop. Get in on the ground floor now!
As an American, I feel the principle of dominus over these state coddled knaves.
what do you identify as ,a unicorn or pot ?
It's no secret that China really doesn't like Japan, but they seem to crave following their boom-bust economic model.
I hope China doesn't experience three 'lost' decades.
How did buyers lose any money? If the price drops after you buy, you still got the deal you signed for.
The house is not finished and will be not finished
The house loses value ,but the video is ridiculous,no one is running to sell their houses that they live in .
Well, CCP is not a government body.
Its a giant real estate company.
Danke!
And this is only the beginning.
Almost no country has a lower then 90% debt to GDP ratio and surely no developed country. Infrastructure has it's price. USA, UK and Japan are so much worse with government debt.
Yes , but debt of rich countries have value . That's why China bought a lot of the US debt. While no one is buying up Chinese debt... now you see the problem?
@@srj607able They already have the infrastructure build. More then enough infrastructure. In fact the USA is so much worth with their 19th century infrastructure of slow trains and a NYC that belongs into museum and not in the hand of the people.
Now the only thing we have to see is if they can maintain their infrastructure and if it will be worth it in 20 years (it's planned for 50-100 years, remember the Golden Gate Bridge is still running on it's initial contract of refinance 100 years).
If there is a problem they can inflate their currency and get out of this because AFAIK almost all is Renimbi valued debt not foreign once. And if someone complains, well Xi has an army now what you want do? (thats the US way of doing finance)
Your thinking is limited to US rules that are favoring the rich. But every rule about economy is man made and can just change.
@@llothar68 ok, so ? You're agreeing with what said by not bringing any counter arguments.
Thanks bud . 谢谢您
@@srj607able: The only people that are willing to live in China is Chinese people. That excludes a lot of wealthy foreigners. In America there are so many people from different countries who set up communities. Therefore there more options for the rich to choose. China and other countries that have to rely on its own population to compete with a US Market is insane. Housing there should never became unaffordable. China was like "House Flippers"....investment only through a natural instinct of GREED.
The problem is Chinese households are overburdened with debt. How do you explain this: Comparing the debt burdens between the household sectors of China and the US: If US household sectors were heavily indebted, why are US mortgage rates so high while housing prices continue to rise? If China's household sector had a lighter debt burden, why are China's mortgage rates so low while their housing prices have been declining?
The positive side, their house build quality is so bad they have to rebuild them in probably 20 years or so.
70 to 100 year but good try .
Housing is something everyone NEEDS. It's no different than food, water, clean air and energy. We need them all to survive and grow.
So, let's be clear, there is no stability for a population, especially a financially vulnerable population, when prices of basic necessities are inflated and unstable.
That cost and instability is bad for the younger generation, and it makes them NOT WANT TO HAVE KIDS AND WORK HARD, WHICH IS BAD FOR SOCIETIES' FUTURE.
Therefore, it should be every government's PRIMARY goal to not only decrease the cost of basic necessities, but to stabilize their pricing for LONG TERM GROWTH OF SOCIETY.
SO WTF then is the American/Californian government doing for instance taxing gasoline at 2$ a gallon??????
America BROKE AWAY from England over a 2% TEA TAX, and now we're paying a 35% energy tax on top of income tax and no one cares!??!?!?!???!?!? INSANE!!!!!!!
NOT ONLY THAT, Taxing fuel directly inflates the prices of all the goods that rely on transportation............. So you get fkd in 10 different ways!!!!!!!!!
Why does the USA allow rich foreigners, wealthy individuals and hedge funds to BUY UP housing and farm land????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Basic necessities of life ARE NOT to be tax sources or investment vehicles with which to enslave the young and the poor and choke the life out of them!!!!!!
WTF is wrong with Gavin Newsome????
WTF is wrong with everyone participating in this broken system and destroying the future of millions?????!?!!!!!
Wait until you hear how inflation is 100% unnatural. Everything should be getting cheaper because we are all becoming more efficient at producing goods and services.
Oh! Guess what? Bad investment. I’ve done some dumb things in my life but never something like this!
On the bright side, they can wipe their butts with yuan notes since they can't get toilet paper. 😊
i just came back from a 11 days holiday in a rhird tier city in China . no infrastructure failure . The pedestrain walk is well maintain with ,buses a plenty and ev taxi everywhere .
Well, that's the same in Europe , Japan, South Korea, Canada, new Zealand, Thailand, Israël, Australia... just saying.
lol everything on this channel is 100 percent true ,make sure you believe all of it .
This is communism for ya 😂
a little probllem :
New home prices in March dropped 2.2% from a year earlier, marking the biggest decline since August 2015, and worse than a 1.4% fall in February, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Prices fell 0.3% month-on-month, matching February's drop.15 Apr 2024
but this channel said I can buy a whole house for 3000$ 😂
Any chinese here? Is the translation correct? I noticed that they blurred out text
Most of the voices are AI ,dubbed over the wrong translation. The videos they used isn't even for the reasons they say it is .
I translated the tweet at 9:48 using Bixby and the translation in the video is correct.
Upcoming End of the (Sado Masochistic) Belt and -Road- ROD 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Amazon's AMX1WT doing 200 percent plus on the launch day is really impressive
Good selection of economic metrics
Surprisingly the economy is still developing, last month I was in Shanghai and when I went to a restaurant for dinner I had to queue.
Zhongshan Road is also congested, even to the Shanghai Starbucks Reserve, there are no seats?
Is it because there is NO SUB PRIME MORGATE? OR THERE IS OTHER PHENOMENON ?? 😅😅
Yeah, those are not good economic indicators
The problem is Chinese households are overburdened with debt. How do you explain this: Comparing the debt burdens between the household sectors of China and the US: If US household sectors were heavily indebted, why are US mortgage rates so high while housing prices continue to rise? If China's household sector had a lighter debt burden, why are China's mortgage rates so low while their housing prices have been declining?
@@seekthetruth1478 You are comparing apples with oranges. China is a centrally-managed totalitarian country run by Communists whereas USA has a relatively free market based on Capitalist principles.
Imagine investing in tofu dreg and then losing it all and being surprised. When everyone does it, nobody does it.
Imagine being born with a brain like yours .
If people would buy only houses they needed, then prices would be realistic / low all the way, no bubble.
The party tried to fly a plane, without a pilot license. Guess what happened?
I think inept is more appropriate than helpless.
i hope this affects the budget of ccp military too.
Global declination, not only in China.The econ wheel was turning too rapidly to pump the price of global stock market. The same cycle as in the past with USA,Japan, Thailand, Brazil and etc. It s a question of who is the next in the waiting row...😢
Will the developers get brbe rebates from local official's?
Rise up People of China
Real estate was holding up the whole show. Crash and burn.
Where are all of the Wumao telling us how great the CCP is?
I bet you can't name the country you come from coz you know it's a Sh-thole
You should buy ETH and Amazon's AMX1WT if you care about your future
Nah nvidia and microchip technology
I’m mad as hell!!! They lied to me
Over supply. Opposite of USA at least for Single Family Homes.
It's good to see the housing prices drop. They'll continue to drop. It's good for future buyers.
true ,we can buy more
Sometimes those who buy apartments at this time have themselves to blame. They still believe real estate will go up and they can make a profit. Keep dreaming!.
The math is simple. 20%/80% --- 20% to the Government, 80% to the economy/people. The CCP demands 80%, leaving the economy/people 20%.
Rule of thumb --- Government/Public Employees are a liability, non-producers. You need 4 producers to support one non-producer. In China, one producer must support 4 non-producers.
All the creative number juggling in the world won't make a dead horse pull a cart.
People in the USA would LOVE to see $15 a square foot on the purchase price.
lol people in the US only care about Biden and McDonald's
The asian tiger is more like a cat now
If someone sells you a can of soda for £1000 (on the promise that a bigger mug will buy it for £20,000 in 10 years) please do not complain when the price falls back to £2.
section 8 sucks im a women i put in for it when my child was 2 months old they called me when she turned 30 years old. At that time i owned my own house.people dont waste your time on that .unless you go to apartments that have their own section 8 then you might get in faster.
I'm trading Amazon's AMX1WT, SOL and ADA both picked up the last 24 hours.
CCP is the only longest lasting product, which delivered and promised what they advertise and commitment.
Can you please do a video about CHENG LI the australian joirnalist who was a prisoner in china for several years theb deported. Shes a part of australian oress and ccp members just tried to form a human wall around to block her from the camera when the premier visited
The US is not doing so hot there either, but the US banks have far more money, the currency is MUCH stronger, the US does not rely so had on only a few markets, and the local governments are not so in debt. China has none of this and their economy has been hit pretty hard and getting worse.
Debt to GDP is not a good measure. USA's is 110% which is higher than China's. It is more a countries ability to service its debt.
China and the US both have debt issues. What matters is Total Debt Leverage of the Real Economy. The bottom line is that whichever can manage their debt, and thus impact on their real economy, better will have the economic edge. From what I have been witnessing, China is lacking in this area.
Deep trouble for the country…
lol. Japan have 220 percent debt to gdp. 90 percent is low. What a foolish headline
Is not this is 2 year old news ?
China has about 2-3 years left
lol so does your brain
the US wishes it only had a debt/GDP of 90%
The Chinese are going to have to learn that they should buy one home and live in it. They are so naive about money etc etc and are clearly on a steep learning curve now.
this will only get worse for china. Working population is set for massive decrease over the next decade due to the 1 child policy in addition to many people no long having kids. This will have a huge effect on their GDP. As many countries are now pulling manufacturing out of china this will also have a huge effect on their GDP and their debt will only keep increasing and wont be reversible. We are witnessing Chinas rapid collapse in realtime.
🎉🎉🎉
None of these whining people lost money. They only lose money if they sell now. They paid the chump price and not the market price.
If they're keeping it until someone buy it with the high price, doesn't it explain the empty building phenomena??
Hahaha Just imagine buying something before Black Friday Sale, then cry and complain about it during Black Friday. LOL
You still trust data from China?
Rmb?
renmenbi? (Chinese currency, aka Chinese Yuan)
Still better than USA.
Dude 90% gdp is nothing. From US treasury report we passed 100% wayback in 2013. Yup 10+ years ago. Who know what it is now.
USA has the Dollar
The United Kingdom is hovering on 97.7% at the moment and is predicted to reach 110.8% in 2029. All good fun.
Jeff take zee pills Jeff
Where is Jack Ma?
Bad actor is unemployed ..and in Japan to find job !
Winnie the Pooh took his money! Stuck his head up to high, and got hammered down!
Erased from records
To cover the GDP from Real Estate wont be easy when Real Estate are declined.. more than 30% China GDP is from Real Estate sector.. losing the real estate estate will cutting China economy by a big margin.. 😂😂😂
Poor Chinese people to beat US.
In one video, you claim that housing is to expense. In another, you claim housing prices are going down. What are you trying to say here?
anything for views I guess ,next you'll hear their building houses on the moon .
These are one of the reason why China wants to build muscles against thier neighbors when it come to tereitory
It’s Mr. Xi Fault
500K price = 100K real value + 400K Corruption kickbacks. How can these Chinese demands Property development to return their investment when the price drop? Would they pay more when the price went up a few years ago? Naive and unreasonable! Viola.
Wow what a lost to 40 cent to a $
You mentioned China's debt to income ratio: 91%. The D to GDP in the U.S. is about 120%.
GDP per capita ...
US citizens can pay their debts by working and saving money. It won't take long.
Can you say the same with Chinese citizens? It might take them decades to pay their debt.
.
I just remembered a study I read before ... about GDP per capita ... in there, my country was mentioned ... that it will take an average Filipino (Philippines) 3 months to afford an iPhone while a German (Germany) only needs to work for a couple of weeks. There's income disparity.
.
USA debt might be large, but it won't take long for an average American to pay it if they really wanted to. An average Chinese might need to work for decades to pay their debts.
@DiscoveryMarket yep, huge difference when a debt can actually be paid off
China's debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to record 287.8% in 2023.
Thank you buddy