Would you have found a fold? Would the backstory of the villian recently bluffing his stack off into the hero and losing make you more or less likely to call down?
Hindsight is 20-20, however if Hero decided to continuation bet the flop, then V most likely would have raised the flop or turn - hero would have saved himself money.
Bs. The fallacy of removal. A king being on the board doesn’t mean it’s less ‘likely’ that someone doesn’t have another king. The cards are random always.
It's an excellent point: the K is no better than an off suit 2. And on that score, the odds are MUCH greater that villain's hand is better rather than worse; either the case K or some two pair is highly unlikely.
Haven't hit the reveal yet, but this is just such a good board for the opponent; ESPECIALLY if he holds the ace of clubs. The caller is never going to have a full house here, only quad kings (once in a blue moon). If the opponent has that ace of clubs he basically also takes pretty much all of the flush possibilities from the caller as well.
Personally, I actually think its a fairly easy fold. I dont play much live but I play plenty online...and when villains continue to barrel on Ace turns, and especially King turns, they usually have a big hand - particularly in 3! pots. Main reason being, as Marc Goone often says, villains have a propensity to put us on AK, and therefore those cards should be really good for our perceived range.
On the river he should have 2 value hands to every 1 bluff given the pot odds in order to make your hand a break even call. His value would be 77,44,33, (AXs) QJs QTs, JTs J9s T9s 98s (65s) Approx 25 combos His bluffs would have to be the offsuit AQ with a club or turning 55,66,22 into a bluff. Approx 12 combos If we are treating the co as a thinking player it’s very hard for him to be overbluffing, another point is your hand looks exactly like you have AK and nobody with half a brain would bluff in this spot. Having said all this it’s live poker and very player dependent and very close
Description of the villian makes calling kinda tempting but not quite tempting enough. Might be loose agg and drunk but doesn’t necessarily mean he’s bad enough or playing bad enough to justify that call, would need a compelling reason to think he was tilting and/or was bad enough to overvalue KQ here which I doubt
A absolute crusher might have 66 or 55 with a club - it is hard to see someone emptying the clip here when our hand looks a lot like AK in their mind (even though we have other check calls on flop like maybe AA with a club - most people will put you on AK for this line) - and I don't think anybody will try to get you to fold that
I think when you float the flop, hit your hand and then river trips, it's crazy hard to get away from getting 2-1. You just don't have to be right that often and it's not like TPTK. I prolly get stacked there, esp vs a drunk guy. Another trap hand you lose too on that flop is AXs when a K is your only out and don't know it.
It reeeaaally comes down to whether the guy is actually drunk or just a competent player who happens to be drinking. The decision heavily depends on this one minor detail.
trips or pair makes NO difference. Villain hasn't AA. And that's the only hand you beat with trips that you're not beating with a pair. Don't be blind by "absolute value".
That bet on the flop & turn just screams value, villain knowing he has to bet but doesn’t want to scare off, be hard to lay this down though would have to give him a lot of credit
So... I was not in love with hero's pre-flop sizing. He actually asked Bart if he could have gone bigger. We find out that he did not get 44 to lay down here. But, the "magic" hand of AK had hero excited. Don't get me wrong; I'm fine with 3 betting here, but a simple 3X would be plenty, even 2.5X is probably sufficient in this configuration. There is only 1 player left to act, it's not as if he's letting extra people in. And we have a read on villain here; the "drunk" aggressive player is not opening to 45 & then folding heads up in position. Also not crazy about the flop check. It's not really that scary a flop, and hero certainly caps his range by checking. I don't believe for a second he checks JJ+ or AK/Q of clubs here. Caller then seems to suggest the villain is not a thinking enough player to notice, that I doubt very much. One does not have to be a studied/thinking player to simply realize hero almost never has the top end of his range when he checks. Possibly the best part of this call was Bart explaining why the river king was actually not a great card for hero. I'm not surprised that chat was suggesting it was a strong card. Gut instinct suggests it improves hero's hand, but actual thinking players can easily see why that is false.
I get the equilibrium mdf argument but it seems hard to give the villain enough worse hands here. For value villain has 9 boats, 3 straights, and 13 flushes at least (A2 A3 A5 56 89 910 10J JQ AQ AJ A10 10Q 9J), so 25 value hands. At 2 to one we need to find like 13 hands we can beat (plus the 1/2 pot value of the 3 AK he might jam for thin value assuming he plays them this way which he might only do with AcKd). For hands we beat there are ace club blockers: 3 AcQ, 3 AJ, 3 A10. that’s nine. He has to have nonobvious bluffs here and maybe given the dynamics he won’t. Would he turn 55 or 66 with a club into a bluff or go really thin for value with QQ or something. Or use Q clubs blockers to bluff? It seems we need to be able to give him credit for bluffs or ultra thin value like this that he probably won’t have given the conversation.
Pretty spot on analysis. And I think the bluffs you listed are being a bit optimistic. At these stakes the majority of players aren’t really turning those hands into bluffs, just based on my experience.
The guys logic doesn’t make a lot of sense either. He both thinks villain might slow down because he just bluffed off stacks to hero with the ace blocker but that he will be turning back door draws with no equity on the turn into triple barrel bluffs against a three bet check from the same hero
I think this 100% depends on the player. The villain seems far smarter than the caller gives him credit for. I was thinking through the process. "if I played this hand and my opponent was competent what hand would I check on the flop? Thus what hand would I get really small OTF to let AcKx float? a set or 2 pair." If I assume the villain plays similar to how I do then I would think this is a fold. If the villain is a loose rec though... I think there are plenty of Kx in his range. A rec is more likely to bet the flop ~1/2p or larger with a FD or check back. Not bet tiny. So we would be looking at KQ, KJ, KT (12 combos) OTR. Some might even have K9s thinking they are good. To me, a loose drunk rec doesn't have a flush here. It is a Kx or bluff hand like 76s or 54s. I would fold to me, but call vs the loose rec.
Easy fold on river if anything another king coming makes it an easier fold because drastically reduces villain actually having a king, that he bluffed flop and then ran into on turn, what is callers logic? Villain bet flop with 88-10s then continue betting turn when king comes and your hand looks like ace king, then bluffed river with 88 99 10 10 when you check called turn and your hand looks even more like ace king? Lol comeon broski
A king being on the board doesn’t reduce the likelyhood the villain doesn’t have a king. It just means he can’t have THAT king. Poker players fallacy of ‘removal’
The logic of removal is a fallacy. If 3 aces appear on a board it is not ‘less’ likely that you don’t hold one. Is it just as likely as any other randomized card you wish to mention. The 4th ace does not ‘hide’ just because the others have appeared. Same with this. Hope you learned son
@@adamozifanelli3128You are as wrong as you are confident. You know the two cards in your hand plus the three on the flop so there are 47 cards unaccounted for. If there are three aces on the flop then there’s only a 1/47 chance any given unknown card, including the two unknown cards in your opponents hand, is an ace. If there are no aces on the flop those odds increase to 4/47. 4 is bigger than 1.
@@adamozifanelli3128are you seriously trying to claim that if 3 aces appear on the flop it’s not now less likely that your opponent has an ace vs preflop? 😂
I’m probably calling here. having the K of spades is bad because you block backdoor trips that would be value owning themselves, but there’s just too many bluffs here if opponent is capable.
I think it's a call vs a rec just because they will not only value own themselves, but they will also go too far into their showdown range like it wouldn't surprise me to see a rec show up with QQ or JJ as crazy as that sounds but vs a thinking player, I would fold. They know that you can have AA, KK, AK, maybe KQ, and a sliver of 77 here, plus some random broadways with a flush draw that hit the flush too so I wouldn't think this is ever a bluff vs a reg. The flop check doesn't mean anything, the sensation mark goone, and some other's, have started recommending to check your entire range oop as the preflop raiser even in 3bet pots so the preflop raiser can have all the hands I mentioned, I wouldn't think a thinking player would just bet bet jam with nothing against someone who 3bet pre, smells like value to me but the caller did say he was drinking, he's capable of bluffing, and was somewhat spewy so I don't fault him for calling at all, I'd probably flick in the call vs someone like that too.
Its not getting attached, if you only play when you have something and only fold when you have nothing, you are the easiest person in the world to play against. There is 0 wrong with calling a flop bet with AK here, you’re going to be ahead without a pair quite often. If you just release every time you are giving away your money and value way way too much
@@JusCliknButtons of course folding isnt the play everytime you are played at, but holding onto many hands especially after not hitting anything on the turn is negative EV, its a leak and will cost you a lot in the long run, also its a live game people are bluffing way less than online, and like I said its a cash game-lose the minimum and move on
Would you have found a fold? Would the backstory of the villian recently bluffing his stack off into the hero and losing make you more or less likely to call down?
Backstory wouldn't matter (unless it was the story of a consistent maniac). In "normal" play hero is beat in this hand.
I folded same hand in a similar situation. Flush came on the river instead and Villain insta pushed. He showed me a stone cold bluff
In the cold light of day it's an easy fold. But I'm probably calling after I see that third K. It really is an illusion.
@@jasonbailey5454Insta push is generally a bluff.
Hindsight is 20-20, however if Hero decided to continuation bet the flop, then V most likely would have raised the flop or turn - hero would have saved himself money.
The king does change something. It takes away one of his possible K-X hands that you beat, making your call worse.
Bs. The fallacy of removal. A king being on the board doesn’t mean it’s less ‘likely’ that someone doesn’t have another king. The cards are random always.
@@adamozifanelli3128Uh….. that king on the board makes it impossible for someone to have that card.
@@adamozifanelli3128 I mean this is wrong right? Theres only one king left out if all the cards in the deck for him to have instead of two
@@adamozifanelli3128Reading comprehension is tough for you, eh?
@@adamozifanelli3128 do you know math? serious cuestion. The fallacy of thinking you may say, jesus.
I honestly think I find a fold there a good percentage of the time. Would be somewhat villain dependent though.
It's an excellent point: the K is no better than an off suit 2. And on that score, the odds are MUCH greater that villain's hand is better rather than worse; either the case K or some two pair is highly unlikely.
The turn bet set up a one SPR ratio. That fact indicates that the river is a fold all day to a shove.
Why would villain shove if he can’t beat a K ? Especially after getting stacked. Easy fold it’s a boat or flush every time
Or a bluff or a king. Nobody knows
Haven't hit the reveal yet, but this is just such a good board for the opponent; ESPECIALLY if he holds the ace of clubs. The caller is never going to have a full house here, only quad kings (once in a blue moon). If the opponent has that ace of clubs he basically also takes pretty much all of the flush possibilities from the caller as well.
Personally, I actually think its a fairly easy fold.
I dont play much live but I play plenty online...and when villains continue to barrel on Ace turns, and especially King turns, they usually have a big hand - particularly in 3! pots. Main reason being, as Marc Goone often says, villains have a propensity to put us on AK, and therefore those cards should be really good for our perceived range.
If the river is an off suit 2 then villain isn’t jamming.
Villain is jamming hoping you have AK
On the river he should have 2 value hands to every 1 bluff given the pot odds in order to make your hand a break even call.
His value would be 77,44,33, (AXs) QJs QTs, JTs J9s T9s 98s (65s)
Approx 25 combos
His bluffs would have to be the offsuit AQ with a club or turning 55,66,22 into a bluff. Approx 12 combos
If we are treating the co as a thinking player it’s very hard for him to be overbluffing, another point is your hand looks exactly like you have AK and nobody with half a brain would bluff in this spot.
Having said all this it’s live poker and very player dependent and very close
Description of the villian makes calling kinda tempting but not quite tempting enough. Might be loose agg and drunk but doesn’t necessarily mean he’s bad enough or playing bad enough to justify that call, would need a compelling reason to think he was tilting and/or was bad enough to overvalue KQ here which I doubt
In a "good" game, does anyone raise from early position and fold to a 4x 3-bet from the blinds?
A absolute crusher might have 66 or 55 with a club - it is hard to see someone emptying the clip here when our hand looks a lot like AK in their mind (even though we have other check calls on flop like maybe AA with a club - most people will put you on AK for this line) - and I don't think anybody will try to get you to fold that
Yeah exactly. And I commented also that villain wouldn’t jam a deuce river
I think when you float the flop, hit your hand and then river trips, it's crazy hard to get away from getting 2-1. You just don't have to be right that often and it's not like TPTK. I prolly get stacked there, esp vs a drunk guy. Another trap hand you lose too on that flop is AXs when a K is your only out and don't know it.
It reeeaaally comes down to whether the guy is actually drunk or just a competent player who happens to be drinking. The decision heavily depends on this one minor detail.
trips or pair makes NO difference.
Villain hasn't AA. And that's the only hand you beat with trips that you're not beating with a pair.
Don't be blind by "absolute value".
Idk why being drunk even matters. My best sessions happened when I was hammered. People always call me down. I play the same way as if I’m sober lol
@@pokerqAK47 This isn't about you. It's about poker players in general, okay?
when hero says I don’t know the exact villain river bet “it’s like a thousand”- I knew hero lost. He’d remember the exact dollar amount on a win. 😂
That bet on the flop & turn just screams value, villain knowing he has to bet but doesn’t want to scare off, be hard to lay this down though would have to give him a lot of credit
It’s hard to get information off your opponent when you check call every street. If hero puts in a 1/3 c bet and gets raised, he can get away.
So... I was not in love with hero's pre-flop sizing. He actually asked Bart if he could have gone bigger. We find out that he did not get 44 to lay down here. But, the "magic" hand of AK had hero excited. Don't get me wrong; I'm fine with 3 betting here, but a simple 3X would be plenty, even 2.5X is probably sufficient in this configuration. There is only 1 player left to act, it's not as if he's letting extra people in. And we have a read on villain here; the "drunk" aggressive player is not opening to 45 & then folding heads up in position.
Also not crazy about the flop check. It's not really that scary a flop, and hero certainly caps his range by checking. I don't believe for a second he checks JJ+ or AK/Q of clubs here.
Caller then seems to suggest the villain is not a thinking enough player to notice, that I doubt very much. One does not have to be a studied/thinking player to simply realize hero almost never has the top end of his range when he checks.
Possibly the best part of this call was Bart explaining why the river king was actually not a great card for hero. I'm not surprised that chat was suggesting it was a strong card. Gut instinct suggests it improves hero's hand, but actual thinking players can easily see why that is false.
I get the equilibrium mdf argument but it seems hard to give the villain enough worse hands here.
For value villain has 9 boats, 3 straights, and 13 flushes at least (A2 A3 A5 56 89 910 10J JQ AQ AJ A10 10Q 9J), so 25 value hands. At 2 to one we need to find like 13 hands we can beat (plus the 1/2 pot value of the 3 AK he might jam for thin value assuming he plays them this way which he might only do with AcKd).
For hands we beat there are ace club blockers: 3 AcQ, 3 AJ, 3 A10. that’s nine. He has to have nonobvious bluffs here and maybe given the dynamics he won’t. Would he turn 55 or 66 with a club into a bluff or go really thin for value with QQ or something. Or use Q clubs blockers to bluff? It seems we need to be able to give him credit for bluffs or ultra thin value like this that he probably won’t have given the conversation.
Pretty spot on analysis. And I think the bluffs you listed are being a bit optimistic. At these stakes the majority of players aren’t really turning those hands into bluffs, just based on my experience.
The guys logic doesn’t make a lot of sense either. He both thinks villain might slow down because he just bluffed off stacks to hero with the ace blocker but that he will be turning back door draws with no equity on the turn into triple barrel bluffs against a three bet check from the same hero
👍👍👍👍👍👍
6:43 his flop bet SCREAMS 99 or 10-10
8:09 agree with turn flat call
10:17 going on first read, bet 45%pot, snap call a jam. If you're beat, you're beat. Don't hire me.
16:54 poker🤮🤦♂️
I think this 100% depends on the player. The villain seems far smarter than the caller gives him credit for. I was thinking through the process. "if I played this hand and my opponent was competent what hand would I check on the flop? Thus what hand would I get really small OTF to let AcKx float? a set or 2 pair."
If I assume the villain plays similar to how I do then I would think this is a fold.
If the villain is a loose rec though... I think there are plenty of Kx in his range. A rec is more likely to bet the flop ~1/2p or larger with a FD or check back. Not bet tiny. So we would be looking at KQ, KJ, KT (12 combos) OTR. Some might even have K9s thinking they are good. To me, a loose drunk rec doesn't have a flush here. It is a Kx or bluff hand like 76s or 54s.
I would fold to me, but call vs the loose rec.
Easy fold on river if anything another king coming makes it an easier fold because drastically reduces villain actually having a king, that he bluffed flop and then ran into on turn, what is callers logic? Villain bet flop with 88-10s then continue betting turn when king comes and your hand looks like ace king, then bluffed river with 88 99 10 10 when you check called turn and your hand looks even more like ace king? Lol comeon broski
A king being on the board doesn’t reduce the likelyhood the villain doesn’t have a king. It just means he can’t have THAT king.
Poker players fallacy of ‘removal’
@adamozifanelli3128
Who taught you math?
The logic of removal is a fallacy.
If 3 aces appear on a board it is not ‘less’ likely that you don’t hold one.
Is it just as likely as any other randomized card you wish to mention.
The 4th ace does not ‘hide’ just because the others have appeared.
Same with this.
Hope you learned son
@@adamozifanelli3128You are as wrong as you are confident. You know the two cards in your hand plus the three on the flop so there are 47 cards unaccounted for. If there are three aces on the flop then there’s only a 1/47 chance any given unknown card, including the two unknown cards in your opponents hand, is an ace. If there are no aces on the flop those odds increase to 4/47. 4 is bigger than 1.
@@adamozifanelli3128are you seriously trying to claim that if 3 aces appear on the flop it’s not now less likely that your opponent has an ace vs preflop?
😂
I’m probably calling here. having the K of spades is bad because you block backdoor trips that would be value owning themselves, but there’s just too many bluffs here if opponent is capable.
2:10 😉
I think it's a call vs a rec just because they will not only value own themselves, but they will also go too far into their showdown range like it wouldn't surprise me to see a rec show up with QQ or JJ as crazy as that sounds but vs a thinking player, I would fold. They know that you can have AA, KK, AK, maybe KQ, and a sliver of 77 here, plus some random broadways with a flush draw that hit the flush too so I wouldn't think this is ever a bluff vs a reg. The flop check doesn't mean anything, the sensation mark goone, and some other's, have started recommending to check your entire range oop as the preflop raiser even in 3bet pots so the preflop raiser can have all the hands I mentioned, I wouldn't think a thinking player would just bet bet jam with nothing against someone who 3bet pre, smells like value to me but the caller did say he was drinking, he's capable of bluffing, and was somewhat spewy so I don't fault him for calling at all, I'd probably flick in the call vs someone like that too.
so here is the thing
Snap call. Villain jamming doesn't imply strength -> So many A7s, 88-JJ here, and on top of that so many bluffs! 68, 89, A5.
When the fish gets you back for everything you got off him 😢
I fold here. A jam is too polar and there just isn’t enough bluffs.
When callers miss use the term effective stack, i lose most of the respect for them. Come on ppl its such an easy term to use.
Fear of being bluffed? Easy fold!
2 in the river brings in A5. That’s worse than another king
again the trap ak draw hand only. villians time n time play low suited connectors or pkt pairs to set mind. nothing new..
$75 flop bet fish
GTO opens 65s UTG very often, but folds 89s, and rarely opens 76s. This is for stacks 200bb or bigger.
Feels like a fold to me
bro calls $175 with 44????? Maniac
Heads up, in position, and starting with a pair. Maybe not the best call, but not a horrible one
Always feels good to watch one of these hand readings and make the right decision. I shit you not I had villain on 44
Why not 33
Bart would be out of a job if people knew how to play AK, it's like half the videos
Cost himself a lot of money by playing the flop poorly.
AK is the biggest loser.. Anna Kournikova is accurate.. looks amazing rarely wins
Is it just me or does caller sound like a rich girl trying to sound bored
This caller thinks he’s a pro lmao
Thinking you didn’t play the hand wrong = thinking you’re a pro? Nah
Milked
get away from the hand post flop, dont know why people get attached to hands in cash games
Exactly. He had nothing on the flop.
Its not getting attached, if you only play when you have something and only fold when you have nothing, you are the easiest person in the world to play against. There is 0 wrong with calling a flop bet with AK here, you’re going to be ahead without a pair quite often. If you just release every time you are giving away your money and value way way too much
@@JusCliknButtons of course folding isnt the play everytime you are played at, but holding onto many hands especially after not hitting anything on the turn is negative EV, its a leak and will cost you a lot in the long run, also its a live game people are bluffing way less than online, and like I said its a cash game-lose the minimum and move on
Ketcamusprime, what do you mean? He hit top pair with top kicker on the turn...