Love how you explain Tesla's progress from just human in robot suit dancing on stage to become the next Gen Tesla Bot in just 3 years. It inspired me to catchup such progress by being urgent 😘
I feel like this is one of your best videos - can’t put my finger on exactly why - good information clearly laid out like always, but this is a particularly enjoyable watch. Thank you!
If that was all they did, I’d be all in. The problem is that they’ll take away enough jobs to make the depression look like a joke. Unless we start discussing Universal basic Income for people who lose their jobs to these robots (I’m not one of them btw, but I’ll likely eventually lose my job to AI), then perhaps we can talk about the benefits of these.
The sad truth is that lawyers and doctors will probably lose their jobs earlier to cheap AI than cleaning staff or factory workers will to massively expensive multi-purpose robots...
You do realize only the "elite" get access to all the cool toys in Star Trek. Normies get a basic comfortable life. The dregs of society are removed. (Teleporters)
It speaks to how far along we are on the curve towards singularity, when I check the posting date of a video to judge whether it is obsolete info. I'm watching this six days after it was posted. It's getting old, but not too old yet. I'll watch.
I have seen enough scifi to see where this is going.... loose unnecessary mass, leave only the hyperalloy endoskeleton, dual nuclear energy cell and do not forget the red glowing eyes...
I know the skeletal structure is not complex. (Think of plastic models from the sixties,) It's a question of clipping on all of the components, threading on the harness, running few tests, and sliding on the final webbing.
Why should humans stop working? Over time, we just need to work less hours as our collective productivity increases. There are plenty of unknowns to keep us busy for the foreseeable future.
Hello. My Optimus fell down the stairs and can't get up. Can you send out a repair tech? Now there are two Optimus mangled up at the bottom of the stairs. Can you send out a human repair tech?
2030: American auto market crash, unemployment hits 20% and the gap between who can afford a robot gets bigger. Glad my house is paid off. Scary times ahead.
Uncertainty can be frightening, as well as change, especially a paradigm shift such as this. The age of abundance is coming. We just have to stop the entrenched status quo from stopping it. They are the enemy, not EM!
The gap has been shrinking at a mad pace for decades, middle class ppl today have far more power, privilege, luxury, and lifestyle than lords in the middle ages. Almost everyone today can afford to have a cell phone and internet at use the smartest AI on the planet. You can use the same search engine and AI assistant as Elon Musk. Govt's loves the narrative that you're a victim and promise to save you from the rich capitalists. It's actually the opposite.
I do believe that the limit will be the raw material supply, especially for the CPU. But while most people think the price will be higher than $20k, the competition, which appears to be very high, may push the price even lower than $15k, and even then, they may still face problems staying competitive when we consider what other companies are presently developing.
also elon will be so rich he will be able to afford human staff in his doomsday bunker, cook, majordomus, french maid and driver...they will be serviced by optimus androids
To calculate the number of 30-second intervals in a 24-hour day, there are 2880 intervals. This means 2880 robots per day, equating over 1 million robots per year. By multiplying this figure every factory, one can see how rapidly robots could enter the consumer market. Therefore, is essential to the time required to reach a ratio of one robot per human.
People often think of the "butler aspect" of these robots but I rarely hear about the business side of things. For example could a robot grow vegetables and man a roadside stand to sell them? Once you discover a business where a robot can earn a profit then what's to stop you from acquiring 1,000 robots? They will keep paying from themselves.
I see a lot of problems in the future... Here's an example, They succeed and get the robots working, and something happens, and all the robots suddenly become inoperable, Will anyone have the skill to do anything for themselves? I don't like the idea of humans becoming dependent on machines to such a degree... Wall-E was a cool movie to watch, but I don't want to live that life.
as if millenials can even boil water these days. Brain stroke at a stick shift car, or having to research anything on their own . Seriously !! OMG look at the clowns representing us in congress and the senate OMG really !?!?
We’ve never seen Elon Musk so serious about a product as he is with the Tesla Bot. Evidence of this can be found in the fact that Tesla’s electric vehicles are often upgraded, improved, or launched rather slowly. However, with the Optimus robot, Tesla has unveiled three generations of the bot in just over two years, with the next generation expected to arrive in early 2025, according to recent updates. Our channel has the latest updates on Optimus, his missions with his new arm are crazy.
The only production method that will win out is the one with exponential scaling -- robots building robots which build robots to build robots. At some point a small fraction of them can march off to do other things. A pilot factory is needed to deal with the early flat part of the exponential curve. After that, ideally a robot arm can build the rest of the robot attached to it, and then go on to build ten more robot arms.
I want one of those IRobots like in the Will Smith movie. You have to give him conversational and driving abilities, cooking and competent golf caddy skills, shooting and bowling skills, automotive and woodworking skills, you got yourself a customer for sure! Hell, I might take two of them! Oh, yes, the robot has to also have the abilities to teach said skills as well. We can put most universities out of business.
Yes robots will allow to drive the production prices come done. As consumers we can profit from that BUT only when money printing stops. Only then humanity will see constant price drops due to techn. progress. Then we will have more time for art creativity and familiy
I saw some videos about it on "Brighter with Herbert" a few months back. It should be able to work as much as a human worker and even more when it is charged at night and then when people take a break to eat at lunch and you charge it during a 30 minute lunch. I forget all the details but it should do well.
The robots should be used to do the initial setup of the lunar and Martian settlements. I wonder how well they would work without a spacesuit, exposed to the harsh environments. The first few Starships should be one way, single use vehicles meant to deliver materiel and the robots and to be used as enclosures and charging ports for those robots. Possibly include a Boring machine for digging underground habitation/storage facilities and a Starlink constellation for communications, maybe navigation as well. Once the robots have established suitable landing/launch pads and habitation, then humans could arrive and inhabit the settlements. Other than that, back on Earth, Optimus workforces could be leased out to companies for a wide variety of work tasks.
With declining birth rates and aging of the existing work force, Optimus-type robots may be the only answer to continue progressing as a society. As the population ages, the exploding need for 7x24 “live in” personal care will be able to be met with these humanoid robots far more effectively than people whose ability to physically assist grown adults getting in & out of beds, cars, chairs, and bathtubs is highly limited. Who is going to build habitats in the harsh and unforgiving environments of the moon, Mars, and beyond? This is yet another reason to have an army of willing humanoid workers. I’m amazed that one man has the ability to envision this future and really figure out how to design, engineer, build and fund this endeavor at scale. Wow!
I used to think that humanoid robots were just a trend and that most robots of the future would be non humanoid. This video is making me think twice though. Only time will tell which way we go. Still too expensive for most families who cannot afford to pay half the price of a new car to get one.
The thing is, if they replace everybody's job, then who would have money to buy one? Yes, UBI would happen, but how much? Does everybody get the same or is there going to be an upper class that gets more and a lower class that gets less. If so, who decides where these deviding lines are and how can you advance. It's not even like there will be a job available anywhere to do anything. I personally love all the projects that I currently do that a robot could most likely do better and faster. Some think that just kicking back on a beach sipping a drink would be the ultimate heaven, but my mind needs busy work. This ussually is in the need for something around the house or a repair/upgrade or modification to an automobile or something. It is a hard thing to imagine or even plan for.
Optimus’s will work night and day to build more Optimus’s thats how they scale faster and faster. That plus they have all the best human engineers in the world and the biggest AI super cluster. Just look how fast and good their image generation that they released today is. Today it stumbles down a bank, in a few years it will have super human coordination, shooting baskets like the toyota robot or maybe even dunking them.
I wonder what the robot actually sounds like. I caught a bit of the noise in one of the demos that was quite annoying (actuators). Hopefully they can make a quiet version.
Why do these robots need a person to buy them? Why don't they just make them and send them out into the world with the challenge of making their payments and operating costs? If you want it to work for you, just swipe your card and give it a task. But fundamentally, the robot doesn't need to be owned.
> Tesla is the only one who has figured out how to make this profitable. I think you're misinterpreting the Autopian article. Do you expect to get carbon credits on robots? Do you expect Tesla to be early in a robot market when they are literally decade behind everyone? It is true they do get a lot of recognition - but as Twitter has proven - that is a two edged sword.
The idea that they are a decade behind on robots isn't true. In just three years Tesla has caught up with the best robots out there. Boston Dynamic was still a little ahead in physical movements but a video just dropped where the Tesla bot can now walk over rough terrain with vision turned off and can catch itself if it slips and many other things. Plus it's hands are better than any other bot by far. And now Tesla has built the biggest super computer in the world to train the bot on. Plus, only Tesla really has the ability to mass scale the manufacture of the bots. And it is now revealed that of those using x (twitter) 48% are Democrats and 47% are Republicans. So we now have a platform where we have almost equal representation of speech. To Republicans that is a good thing. To Democrats it's a disaster.
Soldiers. Robot soldiers. Some of the soldiers could be really small. OK now think about my robot army. . A transporter delivers the bots to the front lines. This saves fuel for the mission. The insect bots, rodent bots, flying bots, and man sized bots. They can be used to overwhelm an enemy position. Should they be battery or gas powered? Battery powered would be quiet. You are trying to sleep and an insect is after you. what a nightmare. ...
Tesla FSD technology is improving rapidly and already exceeds human safety level. Using similar training techniques, Optimus should learn to perform human level activities within the near term.
Not sure. According to Elon it has been exceeding human capabilities at least since 2020. According to youtubers running the newest 13.2 FSD - not even remotely (AIDRIVR, Whole Mars Catalogue).The thing about being better than human is that that would mean being 100% all of the time, not 90-95% most of the time. Also - as the current AI development has proven - being 95% there doesn't mean you have only 5% of work left. This is not a linear problem. They may have to invest 2x or 10x as much as they have already invested to get it to those 100% - assuming that their approach is actually going to work - which I believe is still far from certain.
Well done Ryan. This was a well fought out and delivered summary about robotics. As developed countries populations window humanity is facing potential extinction like other civilization before this. The biggest question you related to is, what is our purpose? Perhaps read the book that Eli suggested called Isaac Asimov’s “the naked sun”to find out more about what the future might hold for us .
Most companies have documented statements directly condemning this and refusing to allow their tech for military use. "Military use" mainly meaning carrying guns. Most of these companies have robots on the battlefield right now operating as scouts, bomb direction, search, medical assistants, etc. particularly the spot robot dog, is HEAVILY used right now as a mobile command platform and for search/recon and as medical carriers.
@@mr.monitor.due to electronic warfare systems getting better and better at downing drones in Ukraine (and in some cases, hijacking the drone to “return to base”), they’re stepping up efforts to introduce AI into killer drones so they can recognize the enemy and attack without human guidance.
Very good summary, optimus and other robots still have a lot of problems to solve to be at the level of something that should be produced at industrial scale but for sure once they reach a certain threshold then it will become something that will be produced at the same amount of smartphones... The main issue will be the agility and autonomy, so it will be first of all to make a version that is able to have a broad set of movements with enough articulation to allow for AI models that will be partially in edge and part on the cloud to reduce the cost and increase autonomy, new Huawei 5G inspired Nearlink will allow to achieve this, maybe each robots will be constrainted to a certain area and will come with a docking station that will do the calculations insito to reduce latency and battery weight... The robots then will take advantage of the upcoming sold state batteries and improved computational and AI model efficiency... These robots will for sure will be sort of uber genius in term of knowledge making humans a bit obsolete even in their early models... And with every update they will be more and more capable as they will help collecting data and sensing the environment collectively to train the next models added to that the synthetic data that will help train them in an incredibly and unimaginable set of scenarios
Il faudra trouver un consensus mondial pour limiter le niveau d'intelligence artificielle pour éviter notre fin à tous et se débarrasser de notre arsenal nucléaire pour éviter que l'ia nous manipule en attisant la haine des uns et des autres pour qu'on appuie nous même sur le bouton nucléaire. Est ce que le combustible nucléaire pourrait servir à fabriquer de petit réacteur pour les pays en développement.il faudra aussi prévoir un revenu universel financé par une taxe robots
Does anyone know if the FSD yt video that had the car understanding a gesture turned out to be the case? A woman walked into the road but pointed to her car parked next to her and the Tesla then drove on seemingly understanding fully what she meant. Also Tesla’s must be able to understand traffic police signals surely? THIS is the advantage Tesla will have. There is no way to train understanding of gestures and meanings and body language except through neural net training and Tesla will have millions of hours of data. It will not be long before. A car stops in the street because it predicts a child running out in front moments before it happens. This will be the advantage they have.
This whole time we thought the snto Christ was a politician… but it is Elon. We will soon regret all of this and the power this man has. Stop bootlicking in the name of innovation
I wouldn't assume that every government would allow robots just to be sold without alot of over sight, since it would become the thin end of a wedge regarding employment displacement. They have a lot more people who need to employed.... I robot running through 3 shifts at a factory, would displace 3 people. Since three people are no longer generating taxable income .... How do you found services ... Tax the robot ? Starship, i love, Tesla cars i like, this one makes me nervous.
If they can control these things without Ai wouldnt that still be better workforce, Part of the problem with the aging workforce is the body. Give people a body that either doesnt care about certain obstacles like temperature or weight then you already have a robot ready to be shipped.
@@tomizatko3138 You would still have to develop some feed back to the user but like any vehicle it becomes just an extension. Given they are developing neural link as well they are ahead of the rest at least in this.
I've been impressed with Honda for most of my life (anyone remember when critics said, "Honda is just a motorcycle company"?). Its both ironic and sad Honda decides to get out of humanoid robot development (Asimov) just when robots really become a thing. Honda is only legacy auto company who dared be more than they were pidgin-holed as.
No American companies lead in robotics or artificial intelligence. China is miles ahead and it's telling that you dodnt mention 1 chinese company. Considering they embarrassed Boston dynamics when they compared their robot dogs.
@30 seconds it's 1 million robots per year. Tesla replaces physical workforce in less than 6 months. All his other companies in less than a year.... then he starts selling robots to people
With an ET3 license you could pass them up like they were standing still. The ET3 "SpaceBridge" (tm) is capable of: 25 tons per second flow from Earth to LEO, and from LEO to Earth, it is also capable of recovering more than 90% of orbital energy from Earth-bound payloads, and the operating cost less than a thousandth of rockets.
I think for the next 25+ years there will be jobs in the public (think classified work) and private sectors that no AI will be considered for because of the sensitivity of the work. But I do see 90% + of all jobs going away in the next 10 years maybe even 5. To many factors at play.
This could go right in a few ways, and wrong in so many ways. The paradigm shift in society and government for this to works seems impossible. I do like the idea of not toiling away for the rest of my life as I have been for nothing. Right now retirement is likely a shopping cart on Franklin Ave near the recycle center with the rest of them.
There are three main points which humanity face: Ai General Intelligence, Ai Super Intelligence, and Alignment... somewhere between A.G.I. and A.S.I. humanity will lose the ability to comprehend what Ai is attempting communicate to us and that will be the end inter-communications between humans and Ai... we will then be the equivalent of a domesticated cat to Ai, and eventually of an insects... Alignment will be humanities most challenging task, because no one is taking it seriously at the moment, so when humanity is no longer able to communicate with Ai that is when any deviation off of perfect alignment will realize too late!!!
I think you got most of the way there with the universal basic income idea but I think the question about people's worth and what they do with their lives will fundamentally change and will value people's efforts creativity and contributions more than money because money will go away. Capitalism will no longer be sustainable with most of the workforce being put out of the job by robots. Hopefully we're able to think of this in advance and not have to make 50% of the population homeless before we do something about it but we'll see what the speed of government does going forward. In this future though one could imagine that you'd be freed to do whatever you want to do with your life once you graduate school. Maybe that's raising your children. Maybe that's traveling the world and learning skills. Maybe you never contribute to society and you just live your life. But you're able to do that because we have robots that can do everything for us. We'll also have to take a look at copyright and trademark law. I think that'll have to be retooled so that instead of keeping people from using your ideas you'll just get credit for your idea when they use it because there's no competition like there is today. There's no reason to keep people from using good ideas and their products or inventions simply because they didn't come up with an idea in the first place. This is actually one of the biggest limiting factors of capitalism currently. Even if an idea is fairly obvious but is allowed to be patented then you have to come up with your own way to do that thing. Star Trek Utopia here we come!
Ryan, that is a lot of very optimistic dreaming. I expect that something useful will come out of it, probably for very specialized applications. But until they can design an AI inference engine that learns locally, I just don't see most of your pie in the sky predictions coming anywhere close to reality.
You didn't answer the question of How Tesla Builds a Robot Every 30 Seconds. You did however produce a 25 minute video covering what might be possible in the future for Optimus. Optimus may be viable in the future but will face steep competition. Elon's forward looking statements according to his lawyers representing him in a recent lawsuit is corporate "puffery." Basically optimistic market statements and not facts.
Everyone always thinks about jobs being lost…. But the new generation thinks that they will all be TH-cam or TikTok or whatever is on trend….. What about nurses or doctors or caregivers…… Robots will hopefully fill the gaps in those industries as people are not joining that fast enough for our overpopulated society. I just wish for the day that AI can replace a GP doctor, bring down wait times. Get people the help they need quicker. I waited a year for an operation that was simple, all because the healthcare was overworked… as a society people always adapted and found new jobs, its evolution. We will all end up working for the robots anyway haha 🎉
Love how you explain Tesla's progress from just human in robot suit dancing on stage to become the next Gen Tesla Bot in just 3 years. It inspired me to catchup such progress by being urgent 😘
I love how you broke down the XAI951x project in your video! Can’t wait to see it skyrocket!
SCAM - AVOID!!!!!
I feel like this is one of your best videos - can’t put my finger on exactly why - good information clearly laid out like always, but this is a particularly enjoyable watch. Thank you!
Have you ever seen a car build itself? These robots could build themselves. Speeding up the whole process.
The real game changer will be AI programing itself. Knowledge will expand exponentially...for better or worse.
When a Tesla bot can pick up dog poop and mow the yard, I will buy one😁
😂😂😂
If that was all they did, I’d be all in. The problem is that they’ll take away enough jobs to make the depression look like a joke. Unless we start discussing Universal basic Income for people who lose their jobs to these robots (I’m not one of them btw, but I’ll likely eventually lose my job to AI), then perhaps we can talk about the benefits of these.
The sad truth is that lawyers and doctors will probably lose their jobs earlier to cheap AI than cleaning staff or factory workers will to massively expensive multi-purpose robots...
I think that you can place your order for an Optimus before you get your puppy 🐶.
@@notsure4907 they got robots to mow the lawn now for much less than 30k.
I think when Gen III comes out they will no longer think Tesla is making jokes or remote controlled robots.
i bet some features will be monthly subscription base payment
This should have been a 5 minute video. Only Optimus could have beaten that dead horse more efficiently than you.
True
Once Elon Musk's XAI951x passes $1, it may NEVER see that low again
SCAM
What is this stupid fake ass coin?…give it a rest
Star Trek economy is coming true where money becomes obsolete and everything is free, and labor is for fulfillment not for income.
If Marx only called it Star Trek!
In your Utopian fantasy. How can you be that gullible?
It's either that or the Mad Max scenario which should be fun🤔
You do realize only the "elite" get access to all the cool toys in Star Trek.
Normies get a basic comfortable life.
The dregs of society are removed. (Teleporters)
😂
love every well researchd optimus video. thank you for spreading that thing
It speaks to how far along we are on the curve towards singularity, when I check the posting date of a video to judge whether it is obsolete info. I'm watching this six days after it was posted. It's getting old, but not too old yet. I'll watch.
I have seen enough scifi to see where this is going.... loose unnecessary mass, leave only the hyperalloy endoskeleton, dual nuclear energy cell and do not forget the red glowing eyes...
I can’t wait to buy one of these
Priceless
I know the skeletal structure is not complex. (Think of plastic models from the sixties,)
It's a question of clipping on all of the components, threading on the harness, running few tests, and sliding on the final webbing.
78 organs, 206 bones, 600+ muscles, 80+ billion neurons. Humans are IMO quite complex 😇.
called modular add on . is the key for now .late in near future be all 3 d printing .
Just simply amazing technology!
Good Video Shaw, We also have Optimistic Thinking About the Future for Tesla Bot
Why should humans stop working? Over time, we just need to work less hours as our collective productivity increases. There are plenty of unknowns to keep us busy for the foreseeable future.
Hello. My Optimus fell down the stairs and can't get up. Can you send out a repair tech?
Now there are two Optimus mangled up at the bottom of the stairs. Can you send out a human repair tech?
2030: American auto market crash, unemployment hits 20% and the gap between who can afford a robot gets bigger.
Glad my house is paid off. Scary times ahead.
Buy a few shares of TSLA stock.
By 2030, probably a 1000% ROI.
Uncertainty can be frightening, as well as change, especially a paradigm shift such as this. The age of abundance is coming. We just have to stop the entrenched status quo from stopping it. They are the enemy, not EM!
The gap has been shrinking at a mad pace for decades, middle class ppl today have far more power, privilege, luxury, and lifestyle than lords in the middle ages.
Almost everyone today can afford to have a cell phone and internet at use the smartest AI on the planet. You can use the same search engine and AI assistant as Elon Musk.
Govt's loves the narrative that you're a victim and promise to save you from the rich capitalists. It's actually the opposite.
You're a fear monger.
We are headed to an era of prosperity humans have never experienced and can not imagine.
Cost of living will plummet in the next decade, the only thing that will remain expensive will be land.
I do believe that the limit will be the raw material supply, especially for the CPU. But while most people think the price will be higher than $20k, the competition, which appears to be very high, may push the price even lower than $15k, and even then, they may still face problems staying competitive when we consider what other companies are presently developing.
also elon will be so rich he will be able to afford human staff in his doomsday bunker, cook, majordomus, french maid and driver...they will be serviced by optimus androids
To calculate the number of 30-second intervals in a 24-hour day, there are 2880 intervals. This means 2880 robots per day, equating over 1 million robots per year. By multiplying this figure every factory, one can see how rapidly robots could enter the consumer market. Therefore, is essential to the time required to reach a ratio of one robot per human.
People often think of the "butler aspect" of these robots but I rarely hear about the business side of things. For example could a robot grow vegetables and man a roadside stand to sell them? Once you discover a business where a robot can earn a profit then what's to stop you from acquiring 1,000 robots? They will keep paying from themselves.
I see a lot of problems in the future... Here's an example, They succeed and get the robots working, and something happens, and all the robots suddenly become inoperable, Will anyone have the skill to do anything for themselves?
I don't like the idea of humans becoming dependent on machines to such a degree... Wall-E was a cool movie to watch, but I don't want to live that life.
My first thought was about how this would affect people's attitudes and behavior. Do you like how spoiled people are? Neither do I.
as if millenials can even boil water these days. Brain stroke at a stick shift car, or having to research anything on their own . Seriously !!
OMG look at the clowns representing us in congress and the senate OMG really !?!?
@@seacprogrammer8455 On the upside no one stealing my car or my truck, I do love my stick shift's lol.
These robots are autonomous. So "all suddenly become inoperable"... I'm sure Musk has already a plan for this.
@@TolisOnLine These robots will be connected to the internet, if you think that anything robotic or technological is foolproof, then you're the fool.
We’ve never seen Elon Musk so serious about a product as he is with the Tesla Bot. Evidence of this can be found in the fact that Tesla’s electric vehicles are often upgraded, improved, or launched rather slowly. However, with the Optimus robot, Tesla has unveiled three generations of the bot in just over two years, with the next generation expected to arrive in early 2025, according to recent updates. Our channel has the latest updates on Optimus, his missions with his new arm are crazy.
The only production method that will win out is the one with exponential scaling -- robots building robots which build robots to build robots. At some point a small fraction of them can march off to do other things. A pilot factory is needed to deal with the early flat part of the exponential curve. After that, ideally a robot arm can build the rest of the robot attached to it, and then go on to build ten more robot arms.
I want one of those IRobots like in the Will Smith movie. You have to give him conversational and driving abilities, cooking and competent golf caddy skills, shooting and bowling skills, automotive and woodworking skills, you got yourself a customer for sure! Hell, I might take two of them! Oh, yes, the robot has to also have the abilities to teach said skills as well. We can put most universities out of business.
One step at a time
I, for one, welcome our robotic overlords.
Yes robots will allow to drive the production prices come done. As consumers we can profit from that BUT only when money printing stops. Only then humanity will see constant price drops due to techn. progress. Then we will have more time for art creativity and familiy
Elon Musk is skynet😂
It's good to see someone starting to discuss the practical outcome of robots usurping human labor!
I'd happily have one!
Life without work is meaningless.
Correction, you don't need buyers for them. You just need a purpose for them.
On Elon metrics: 1 car = 1.5 Tons, equivalent to 20 Optimus or 1 per second. Same gigafactory.
No one talk's about the range of the battery That powers the robots
I saw some videos about it on "Brighter with Herbert" a few months back. It should be able to work as much as a human worker and even more when it is charged at night and then when people take a break to eat at lunch and you charge it during a 30 minute lunch. I forget all the details but it should do well.
11:55 hmmmmm Hyundai owns BD now. Safe to say they have some experience with mass production.
They will need a software partner. But they are contenders.
And you only need to teach a single bot any given skill, every robot will aquire the data/skill set.
On that note today's movie will be minority report and Bladerunner 2049 lol
The robots should be used to do the initial setup of the lunar and Martian settlements. I wonder how well they would work without a spacesuit, exposed to the harsh environments. The first few Starships should be one way, single use vehicles meant to deliver materiel and the robots and to be used as enclosures and charging ports for those robots. Possibly include a Boring machine for digging underground habitation/storage facilities and a Starlink constellation for communications, maybe navigation as well. Once the robots have established suitable landing/launch pads and habitation, then humans could arrive and inhabit the settlements. Other than that, back on Earth, Optimus workforces could be leased out to companies for a wide variety of work tasks.
One high altitude EMP, no radiological damage, but now millions of dead robots.
And millions of humans with no survival skills left to defend for themselves, can you say population crash.
Very outside chance of that, but there are ways of shielding against EMPs.
An people too with the grid an including every electrical device fried along with it ...?
And the majority of the US population would starve to death after a major EMP
And millions of cars, both gas and electric that don't work either...
With declining birth rates and aging of the existing work force, Optimus-type robots may be the only answer to continue progressing as a society. As the population ages, the exploding need for 7x24 “live in” personal care will be able to be met with these humanoid robots far more effectively than people whose ability to physically assist grown adults getting in & out of beds, cars, chairs, and bathtubs is highly limited. Who is going to build habitats in the harsh and unforgiving environments of the moon, Mars, and beyond? This is yet another reason to have an army of willing humanoid workers. I’m amazed that one man has the ability to envision this future and really figure out how to design, engineer, build and fund this endeavor at scale. Wow!
I used to think that humanoid robots were just a trend and that most robots of the future would be non humanoid. This video is making me think twice though. Only time will tell which way we go. Still too expensive for most families who cannot afford to pay half the price of a new car to get one.
This is excellent content Ryan.
Thank you
Bots will need to be heavily taxed to compensate the unemployed.
The thing is, if they replace everybody's job, then who would have money to buy one? Yes, UBI would happen, but how much? Does everybody get the same or is there going to be an upper class that gets more and a lower class that gets less. If so, who decides where these deviding lines are and how can you advance. It's not even like there will be a job available anywhere to do anything.
I personally love all the projects that I currently do that a robot could most likely do better and faster. Some think that just kicking back on a beach sipping a drink would be the ultimate heaven, but my mind needs busy work. This ussually is in the need for something around the house or a repair/upgrade or modification to an automobile or something. It is a hard thing to imagine or even plan for.
Why wouldn't they buy themselves? All they need is an income to make the payments and operating costs. Why do they need a person to fund them?
I’m here for it as long as this isn’t the start of judgement day or iRobot 😂 but I guess we’ll have to stay tuned 😅
When they get perfected. They can go to mars. Or be controlled from earth
Optimus’s will work night and day to build more Optimus’s thats how they scale faster and faster. That plus they have all the best human engineers in the world and the biggest AI super cluster. Just look how fast and good their image generation that they released today is. Today it stumbles down a bank, in a few years it will have super human coordination, shooting baskets like the toyota robot or maybe even dunking them.
I wonder what the robot actually sounds like. I caught a bit of the noise in one of the demos that was quite annoying (actuators). Hopefully they can make a quiet version.
Xpeng is well ahead of Tesla and also make EV's and flying cars.
It's either that or the Mad Max scenario Star Trek indeed🫵
Why do these robots need a person to buy them? Why don't they just make them and send them out into the world with the challenge of making their payments and operating costs?
If you want it to work for you, just swipe your card and give it a task.
But fundamentally, the robot doesn't need to be owned.
> Tesla is the only one who has figured out how to make this profitable.
I think you're misinterpreting the Autopian article. Do you expect to get carbon credits on robots? Do you expect Tesla to be early in a robot market when they are literally decade behind everyone? It is true they do get a lot of recognition - but as Twitter has proven - that is a two edged sword.
The idea that they are a decade behind on robots isn't true. In just three years Tesla has caught up with the best robots out there. Boston Dynamic was still a little ahead in physical movements but a video just dropped where the Tesla bot can now walk over rough terrain with vision turned off and can catch itself if it slips and many other things. Plus it's hands are better than any other bot by far. And now Tesla has built the biggest super computer in the world to train the bot on. Plus, only Tesla really has the ability to mass scale the manufacture of the bots. And it is now revealed that of those using x (twitter) 48% are Democrats and 47% are Republicans. So we now have a platform where we have almost equal representation of speech. To Republicans that is a good thing. To Democrats it's a disaster.
We are Borg 😮
Soldiers. Robot soldiers. Some of the soldiers could be really small. OK now think about my robot army. . A transporter delivers the bots to the front lines. This saves fuel for the mission. The insect bots, rodent bots, flying bots, and man sized bots. They can be used to overwhelm an enemy position. Should they be battery or gas powered? Battery powered would be quiet. You are trying to sleep and an insect is after you.
what a nightmare. ...
And then the mosquito bots. So small they can't be seen until they bite you.
i have yet to see a robot walk around while getting something done
You won't see that. This is just a pipe dream to pump stock. As is most of Elon's bullshit.
Hasn't happened outside of a factory floor.
Tesla FSD technology is improving rapidly and already exceeds human safety level. Using similar training techniques, Optimus should learn to perform human level activities within the near term.
Not sure. According to Elon it has been exceeding human capabilities at least since 2020. According to youtubers running the newest 13.2 FSD - not even remotely (AIDRIVR, Whole Mars Catalogue).The thing about being better than human is that that would mean being 100% all of the time, not 90-95% most of the time.
Also - as the current AI development has proven - being 95% there doesn't mean you have only 5% of work left. This is not a linear problem. They may have to invest 2x or 10x as much as they have already invested to get it to those 100% - assuming that their approach is actually going to work - which I believe is still far from certain.
FSD works in very particular circumstances. It's no way near human level in real world.
@ , do you have first hand experience?
@@kure7586 , do you have first hand experience?
Yes it’s improving rapidly and the robots will be ready when FSD will be. Apparently in two weeks.( never)
would be cool if the robot spotted people in the gym. robot body guard or soldier
Well done Ryan. This was a well fought out and delivered summary about robotics. As developed countries populations window humanity is facing potential extinction like other civilization before this. The biggest question you related to is, what is our purpose? Perhaps read the book that Eli suggested called Isaac Asimov’s “the naked sun”to find out more about what the future might hold for us .
Whos buying the products the robots are making if nobody has a job?
No one has talked about robots being used by the military.
Watch The Terminator. You are decades behind 😅
Nonone except for the military who already does it😅
Not until robots learn how to 'take the oil' and 'take the money too'.
Most companies have documented statements directly condemning this and refusing to allow their tech for military use. "Military use" mainly meaning carrying guns. Most of these companies have robots on the battlefield right now operating as scouts, bomb direction, search, medical assistants, etc. particularly the spot robot dog, is HEAVILY used right now as a mobile command platform and for search/recon and as medical carriers.
@@mr.monitor.due to electronic warfare systems getting better and better at downing drones in Ukraine (and in some cases, hijacking the drone to “return to base”), they’re stepping up efforts to introduce AI into killer drones so they can recognize the enemy and attack without human guidance.
Animatrix 1.5 for a pêriod of time robot and humans were in peaces until B1-66 er
Very good summary, optimus and other robots still have a lot of problems to solve to be at the level of something that should be produced at industrial scale but for sure once they reach a certain threshold then it will become something that will be produced at the same amount of smartphones... The main issue will be the agility and autonomy, so it will be first of all to make a version that is able to have a broad set of movements with enough articulation to allow for AI models that will be partially in edge and part on the cloud to reduce the cost and increase autonomy, new Huawei 5G inspired Nearlink will allow to achieve this, maybe each robots will be constrainted to a certain area and will come with a docking station that will do the calculations insito to reduce latency and battery weight... The robots then will take advantage of the upcoming sold state batteries and improved computational and AI model efficiency... These robots will for sure will be sort of uber genius in term of knowledge making humans a bit obsolete even in their early models... And with every update they will be more and more capable as they will help collecting data and sensing the environment collectively to train the next models added to that the synthetic data that will help train them in an incredibly and unimaginable set of scenarios
Il faudra trouver un consensus mondial pour limiter le niveau d'intelligence artificielle pour éviter notre fin à tous et se débarrasser de notre arsenal nucléaire pour éviter que l'ia nous manipule en attisant la haine des uns et des autres pour qu'on appuie nous même sur le bouton nucléaire. Est ce que le combustible nucléaire pourrait servir à fabriquer de petit réacteur pour les pays en développement.il faudra aussi prévoir un revenu universel financé par une taxe robots
I want to play ping pong with my Tesla Bot.
These bots will be Elon's soldiers in the near future
Does anyone know if the FSD yt video that had the car understanding a gesture turned out to be the case? A woman walked into the road but pointed to her car parked next to her and the Tesla then drove on seemingly understanding fully what she meant. Also Tesla’s must be able to understand traffic police signals surely? THIS is the advantage Tesla will have. There is no way to train understanding of gestures and meanings and body language except through neural net training and Tesla will have millions of hours of data. It will not be long before. A car stops in the street because it predicts a child running out in front moments before it happens. This will be the advantage they have.
This whole time we thought the snto Christ was a politician… but it is Elon. We will soon regret all of this and the power this man has. Stop bootlicking in the name of innovation
Leon said we be on mars by now.
I wouldn't assume that every government would allow robots just to be sold without alot of over sight, since it would become the thin end of a wedge regarding employment displacement.
They have a lot more people who need to employed.... I robot running through 3 shifts at a factory, would displace 3 people.
Since three people are no longer generating taxable income .... How do you found services ... Tax the robot ? Starship, i love, Tesla cars i like, this one makes me nervous.
Ha Ha Ha What government the New Shiny Orange one ? Dont expect anything but shock and awe bro ...
How Tesl builds a robot every 30 seconds: Fiction. (They don’t.)
If they can control these things without Ai wouldnt that still be better workforce, Part of the problem with the aging workforce is the body. Give people a body that either doesnt care about certain obstacles like temperature or weight then you already have a robot ready to be shipped.
Body cares and is effected by physics if you feel it or not.
@@tomizatko3138 You would still have to develop some feed back to the user but like any vehicle it becomes just an extension. Given they are developing neural link as well they are ahead of the rest at least in this.
Things will chance REALLY fast only once Robots can earn and own their own money... they will own their own 'motivations'
Universal basic income pls
Robots and AI will soon become the #1 Consumer... of all that they care about : Energy
I've been impressed with Honda for most of my life (anyone remember when critics said, "Honda is just a motorcycle company"?).
Its both ironic and sad Honda decides to get out of humanoid robot development (Asimov) just when robots really become a thing. Honda is only legacy auto company who dared be more than they were pidgin-holed as.
No American companies lead in robotics or artificial intelligence. China is miles ahead and it's telling that you dodnt mention 1 chinese company.
Considering they embarrassed Boston dynamics when they compared their robot dogs.
When can we replace Elon with an ai driven robot that's more human?
We already have lots of humans that are not very productive. We have only one Elon and he is extremely productive
The Chinese are productive
Robots are mainly remotely controlled. Wake me up when can do a simple task by itself besides stack cubes.
I take a robot as a remote control where I can stay home and go to work in my robot
5 factories 1 robot every 3 seconds. Since the robots build themselves it's just building the factory that costs something. Outside of raw material
@30 seconds it's 1 million robots per year. Tesla replaces physical workforce in less than 6 months. All his other companies in less than a year.... then he starts selling robots to people
This will be the end of us!
This is great news. While Elon is busy with politics, my Blue Origin team and I will close the gap with SpaceX and get ahead of them.
With an ET3 license you could pass them up like they were standing still. The ET3 "SpaceBridge" (tm) is capable of: 25 tons per second flow from Earth to LEO, and from LEO to Earth, it is also capable of recovering more than 90% of orbital energy from Earth-bound payloads, and the operating cost less than a thousandth of rockets.
Huge fan of what Tesla is doing, for anyone looking to join the Tesla Fsm right now, I have a referral link in my TH-cam bio!
I think for the next 25+ years there will be jobs in the public (think classified work) and private sectors that no AI will be considered for because of the sensitivity of the work. But I do see 90% + of all jobs going away in the next 10 years maybe even 5. To many factors at play.
I wonder how many will be displaced by a robot in the next 5 years?
This could go right in a few ways, and wrong in so many ways.
The paradigm shift in society and government for this to works seems impossible.
I do like the idea of not toiling away for the rest of my life as I have been for nothing.
Right now retirement is likely a shopping cart on Franklin Ave near the recycle center with the rest of them.
The idea that every household in the world is going to have 2 $60,000 robots is ridiculous.
A world full of robots that you have to deal with in addition to the people you already have to deal with sounds like hell to me.
You are correct, it will be at least 4.
There are three main points which humanity face: Ai General Intelligence, Ai Super Intelligence, and Alignment... somewhere between A.G.I. and A.S.I. humanity will lose the ability to comprehend what Ai is attempting communicate to us and that will be the end inter-communications between humans and Ai... we will then be the equivalent of a domesticated cat to Ai, and eventually of an insects... Alignment will be humanities most challenging task, because no one is taking it seriously at the moment, so when humanity is no longer able to communicate with Ai that is when any deviation off of perfect alignment will realize too late!!!
I think you got most of the way there with the universal basic income idea but I think the question about people's worth and what they do with their lives will fundamentally change and will value people's efforts creativity and contributions more than money because money will go away. Capitalism will no longer be sustainable with most of the workforce being put out of the job by robots. Hopefully we're able to think of this in advance and not have to make 50% of the population homeless before we do something about it but we'll see what the speed of government does going forward. In this future though one could imagine that you'd be freed to do whatever you want to do with your life once you graduate school. Maybe that's raising your children. Maybe that's traveling the world and learning skills. Maybe you never contribute to society and you just live your life. But you're able to do that because we have robots that can do everything for us. We'll also have to take a look at copyright and trademark law. I think that'll have to be retooled so that instead of keeping people from using your ideas you'll just get credit for your idea when they use it because there's no competition like there is today. There's no reason to keep people from using good ideas and their products or inventions simply because they didn't come up with an idea in the first place. This is actually one of the biggest limiting factors of capitalism currently. Even if an idea is fairly obvious but is allowed to be patented then you have to come up with your own way to do that thing. Star Trek Utopia here we come!
First
Young as of today 3 to 6 months later century old !
Ryan, that is a lot of very optimistic dreaming. I expect that something useful will come out of it, probably for very specialized applications. But until they can design an AI inference engine that learns locally, I just don't see most of your pie in the sky predictions coming anywhere close to reality.
One robot every 30 seconds??? Or 1 every 0.3 seconds? This is just silly. This is Elon's dream ...but his reality is more like 1 in 10 years.
Just don't create V.I.K.I!
So, you know, the race is on between climate solution & climate collapse right.
You didn't answer the question of How Tesla Builds a Robot Every 30 Seconds. You did however produce a 25 minute video covering what might be possible in the future for Optimus. Optimus may be viable in the future but will face steep competition. Elon's forward looking statements according to his lawyers representing him in a recent lawsuit is corporate "puffery." Basically optimistic market statements and not facts.
Everyone always thinks about jobs being lost…. But the new generation thinks that they will all be TH-cam or TikTok or whatever is on trend….. What about nurses or doctors or caregivers…… Robots will hopefully fill the gaps in those industries as people are not joining that fast enough for our overpopulated society. I just wish for the day that AI can replace a GP doctor, bring down wait times. Get people the help they need quicker. I waited a year for an operation that was simple, all because the healthcare was overworked… as a society people always adapted and found new jobs, its evolution. We will all end up working for the robots anyway haha 🎉