3 Card Blind Puzzle - Death Shadow Math
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 ก.ย. 2024
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doesnt this only cover scenarios where Deaths Shadow goes second? If they go first im pretty sure they're guaranteed to win that game by blackmailing the dragon away and having free reign to beat down with any size shadow, winning the match 1-0-1?
Yes, as stated in the video, for the puzzle, King kie (stormbreath dragon) goes first. If Death's Shadow goes first, they just Blackmail away the Stormbreath Dragon and win with no resistance
I'm likely going to pick up a bunch of these decks to basically draft puzzles with people, except we'll actually play rather than assume we all play a certain way. To see who knows when to force stalemates, when to attack, etc., etc.
I have also thought about doing this with some of the harder puzzles. It is quick little activity you can squeeze in between rounds during a draft or commander
@@MTG3CardBlind Well if I get to it first, I'll let you know how it goes. Proxies for the win. Absolutely necessary for a lot of these decks haha
Me when I casually pick up a bunch of Black Lotuses
@@solbradguy7628 Proxies are great 😎
The City of Traitors, Black Lotus, Stormbreath Dragon deck seems like it's pretty weak, no? No interaction, all it can do is ramp out its wincon which is only a basically vanilla 4/4. It has flying which is nice and at least it's got protection from white so it can't be hit by Path to Exile and the like, but that's really all you've got going for you. There's not even any way to take advantage of Monstrosity as you don't have enough mana. Maybe it could work in a meta where targeted white removal like Path to Exile is very prominent and most of the win conditions can't deal with flying or are smaller fliers? It just feels like you could find a much better win condition at 5 mana.
You are right. Every month though we get people who roll up and just want to jam their personal favorite cards, so we always get a few decks that look something like this.
It's a stalemate, Dragon can attack once but then another attack loses them the game. After the attack, if Shadow Citadels themselves to 13, they lose instead. If Dragon doesn't attack at all, Shadow can't Citadel even once, otherwise the Dragon would win.
I'm guessing this is a draw, if the dragon attacks again after the Death's Shadow player is at 16, then DS wins, but otherwise if DS activates it would become 13 and they wouldn't be able to play Death's Shadow and would die because the margin for error in the case the dragon attacks at 16 has a margin for error of 1.
King kie going first:
- King would know that Blackmail is in there, so he can't simply wait. He has to play his hand, or the dragon will be taken and he loses by default.
- turn one, King plays Dragon and swings for 4 putting gavlna to 16.
- turn two, gavlna plays Citadel and doesn't bother casting Blackmail. He can't cast Shadow or it will die immediately.
Here's the turning point -- does gavlna hurt himself with Citadel or not? I assume not.
- Turn three, king swings again with gavlna to 12.
- Turn four, gav plays Shadow and ends at 9.
- turn five, king puts gav to 5.
- turn six, gav swings with a 8/8 shadow putting king to 12.
- turn seven, king either swings to put gav to 1 and dies for exact on the backswing or chump blocks.
That's assuming king starts out by attacking.
If he swings once, and then just waits on swinging, gav's only route is to hit himself to 7 and start swinging with a 6/6. assuming gav hits first, king goes to 14, then gav falls to 3, and king then takes 10 down to 4 before attacking for lethal
Even with Kie going first i don't see how the Shadow player could possibly lose. I must be missing something otherwise this isn't much of a puzzle.
Turn 1: shadow players take 4 (16).
T2. Shadow player passes.
T3. Shadow player takes 4 (12).
T4. Tap citadel (9), play shadow (4/4).
T4. Shadow player takes 4 or nothing (5 or 9).
T5. Shadow player either attacks if at 5 (8/8) or taps citadel to got to 6 and swings a 9/9. Kie goes to 12 or 11.
T6. Shadow player takes 0 or 4, staying at 5 or 6 or taking 4 going to 1 or 2.
T7. Shadow player swings for lethal as is or by tapping citadel.
I have to be missing something.
Ah, it's only a "puzzle" if Kie knows player 2 is on Shadow...like in a Game 2 scenario which was not part of the prompt. Smh.
If you look at the rules video for 3 card blind they mention there that there is no hidden information, i.e. you know your opponents' hand at all times
@@TheLuckySpades seems like a pretty important rule to include in the video about a puzzle.
@@raedien If we incorrectly assume that there is hidden information because it wasn't covered in the video alongside the assumption both players want to win (and as a corollary, avoid losing), Gavlna still doesn't have an inherent edge.
Start of t1 Both players are at 20 and have access to all of their cards.
t1 Kie > Cast dragon and attack
t1 Gavlna > Pass after no action
From Kie's first combat declaration until their second combat declaration they were not able to make any decisions, but gained information - that Gavlna has no actionable path to victory yet. The only decision they are able to make in their second combat is to attack or not attack. Kie can infer that if they do not attack then Gavlna will continue to take no action. The only difference of game state that could effect Gavlna's actions by Kie not attacking is that the dragon will be untapped during Gavlna's turn and the likelihood of that being relevant in a format like this is practically zero.
While Kie's only path to winning is lethal damage through attacking, attacking on t2 would be antithetical to that end as it turns on more potential avenues towards losing. Gavlna only gains an edge when Kie attacks the second time and when the situation is properly considered, even with hidden information, it is inadvisable for them to attack on their second turn.
The puzzle is for the 3 Card Blind format, which has some special rules. I recommend you check the introduction to the format mentioned in the first half of the video and linked in the description.
The puzzle doesn't really work if you do not know the format rules, hence why I recommended checking the intro video first.
Check 0:35 in this video
Sooo, do you have to do these games manually for every matchup!? That's a lot of work!
It is a ton of work, but I have a group of volunteers called the "Game Gurus" in our discord who help process the matches. In March, we calculated 4,258 games as a community across 27 people. Without their help, this community and format would not be possible in the way it is today.
I do have a reasonably sophisticated database set up to help reduce some of the labor because it "remembers" matches we have already done in the past, but that is only reducing the amount of labor by like 5-15% (which incrementally is fantastic, but every month still requires a huge commitment to make possible).
@@MTG3CardBlind
That's amazing and an insane amount of work!! I think you should do a video about this. More people need to know how much work really goes on for this format.
I thank you and your team for your efforts. But I wonder if it would be easier for players to just do their own matchups? But I guess you'd still have to confirm all the matches anyway 🤔
@@GreenMonkeySam Yes, if people did their own matchups, it would dilute the amount of labor done. That being said, it would likely reduce the number of people that would be willing to participate. There is also some concern that it might be "too many cooks in the kitchen" and could slow down the pace at which we run the tournament as well as make correcting for errors much more challenging.
I think there is value in having people do the math for their own matches in side events or even in other 3 Card Blind communities, but a big goal for this community and the Main Event Tournament is to serve as an entry point into the format that is as accessible to as many people as possible.
It occurs to me that someone could design a deck to be as hard as possible to score. Has anyone tried this yet? (I don't recommend it or plan to do it, I'm just curious.)
I don't think anyone has intentionally done this, but there have been decks that are legitimately very strong and also happen to be nightmarish to score.
Oko + Treetop Village + Simic Growth Chamber vs Chalice of the Void + Tolarian Academy + Retrofitter Foundry comes to mind as two decks that in combination create a incomprehensibly large series of decisions. If you are feeling like tormenting yourself, take like 10 minutes to just explore that match a bit and it will become clear how bad things can get just accidentally.
Not going to lie, Retrofitter Foundry getting banned was a huge relief.
oof, that was kind of galaxy brain
No it wasn't. The Stormbreath player can't know player 2 is on Shadow based on the prompt.
Based on the prompt Stormbreath loses every time.
@@raedien In 3cb each player always has every info on the game. otherwise it wouldn't be a "puzzle"
@@nerium5552 I understand that now but the fact I had to be told outside the video is not a smart way to grow a format. A single line in the video, "All hands are played face up," is enough.
@@raedien indeed
Weird, maybe it's because I'm this early, but there is only sound and no images
Yeah, refreshing helped
Stormbreath Dragon is so bad lol