Here's The TRUTH About The Potential Gulf Hurricane (Late September)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ก.ย. 2024
- The is a high potential for a storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. There is a chance for a hurricane in the Gulf, but currently there is no storm to track. While there is high confidence that a storm will form, there is low confidence on where it will go and how strong it will get. The euro and gfs differ greatly because how they are handling the upper level pattern. Subscribe to @just_weather for more weather content and analysis for the 2024 hurricane season, fall severe weather season and 2024/2025 winter.
Chapters:
00:00: Intro
00:30: Tropics Update Today (National Hurricane Update 9/20/2024)
01:30: GFS Model For Gulf Storm
02:00: Euro Model For Gulf Storm
02:24: Icon Model For Gulf Storm
02:40: Canadian Model For Gulf Storm
03:05: Upper Level Pattern For Steering Gulf Hurricane
07:11: Will A Hurricane Develop In The Gulf of Mexico
08:17: central American Gyre
10:00: Euro Ensembles For Gulf Hurricane
10:20: GFS Ensembles For Gulf Hurricane
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Main point i want to make...there is high confidence that a storm will develop...however it's not expected to develop until early next week. Models will have no clue until that happens so there is no reason to be scared about models you see on social media. Everyone can enjoy their weekend and a just keep this in the back of your mind. We will know so much more by Monday/Tuesday. Potential impacts come late next week 9/26-9/30. Be safe friends! - Jonathan
@@just_weather thank you I can enjoy my football games on Sunday 😄
@@user-ed5te6oe7g yes you can! - Jonathan
Hi from saint Petersburg fla, Jonathan I have a question? Where's Mr. Nazario?
I haven't seen him lately.
@@just_weather I have a question I live in South Carolina do you it's coming here just asking?
Thank you Jonathan. No hype. No predictive thumbnails that unnecessarily scare people about storms that haven't even formed yet. Just the raw science about predicting what may or may not happen.
Absolutely! Thank you for tuning in! - Jonathan
Isn't it annoying? Jonathan is a breath of fresh air ❤
Thanks for that info. I live in Southeast Texas Houston. We were hammered by Hurricane Beryl and had to replace our roof. I will stay tuned for further updates. This is very scary for everyone. May God bless us all.
Soon we will see most of Texas and Louisiana with blue tarps on the roofs..I remember flying into Louisiana and wondering what all the blue was on the houses.. 😢 for refrence I came from California. I hope your insurance helps with roof repair. Much ❤
Wonderful be safe everyone and will keep checking back for updates on the storm!
Thank you for posting the thought process and data used to track these storms. We are in Southwest Georgia and were in Panama City, FL when Hurricane Michael hit. It was not really hyped up until very late in the track and that made the devastation a shock to everyone.
My gosh that’s terrible. Hope everything was ok. - Jonathan
@@just_weather Thanks for that. The house was hit by two giant trees that basically wiped it out. But luckily no one needed to live there, we were in the process of cleaning it out. In some ways it was difficult to not have the chance to go through everything because of the damage but then again, we sold it “as is” and it became someone else’s problem. It was almost entirely wind damage to that area. Damage to homes, most trees down, no power for quite awhile following the storm, even the train was knocked over. I have been through many storms and never seen that level of damage without significant warning ahead of time. It went from an area to watch to a cat5 in a few days. And many didn’t evacuate because they only evacuated the flood areas. I definitely watch storms more closely than I did!
Thank you for keeping it real with us and please keep "doing what you do". After Hurricane Ian, there were so many complaints of not having enough time to prepare in SW and Central Florida; with your forecast we at least get a little heads up so we know to be prepared. Thanks from West Palm Beach!
You SHOULD be prepared at the start of the season. It alleviates having to deal with crowds , empty shelves & utter chaos !
My experience living on the Mississippi Gulf Coast is that weather can change up til the last hours so I very much appreciate your forecast with all of the important info and I will be subscribing to you and watching for updates!
Sending Love from Gulfport
Thank you for clearing this up. I’ve been seeing completely polarizing forecasts and predictions on this. This is the kind of explanation I was looking for. 🙏
Thanks for actual weather information and not fake news. Some people will just believe anything that anyone puts out there for whatever reason. Thank you for actually forecasting the forecast and not just the models.
@@matthenagan8189 you are very welcome. I don’t want to let a computer dictate my forecast haha. Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
Yes, Matt Johnathan, is the best for weather no fear mongering just science.
Thank you for the information! We are still waiting to make our decision on our vacation to Panama City. I am hoping by Monday there will be better agreements with the models.
In SW Florida nothing about rainy season has been normal .... So expecting the same out of any storm formation !
It’s just nice to be aware of a possible storm, this gives us the opportunity to prepare and take notice of updates just in case.
So refreshing seeing and hearing un slanted weather reporting , I bet other meteorologists give you grief at times , so thank you for showing and tell it like it is 😊
I am scheduled to have surgery in Tampa 2 October. Praying for no storm near Florida Panhandle or Tampa.
I’m near New Orleans. Thank you for being true. There is so much on social media about where it’s going! Where is what going? Thank you again. I’ll be watching you!
Please feel free to go deep with the science. There’s many scientists out here that would like it I’m sure. Thank you
Sounds great to me! - Jonathan
Living in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, I appreciate your in depth analysis and frank comments about the speculation of current atmospheric models.
Liked, and subscribed.
I love your calm and sensible reporting, and lack of hype. However, you won my loyalty forever because you correctly refer to the GULF and not the GOLF, the way so many weather reporters do.
Alabama Gulf Coast …. Always interested during hurricane season …. God bless you 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
You as well! - Jonathan
Love all the details. Put together perfectly! Thank you!
You’re welcome! Thanks for tuning in. - Jonathan
Hey, Jonathan, watching from beautiful Venice, FL. Just had a huge surprise thunderstorm blow through after the forecast was "partly cloudy". Florida in the summer!
Love your stuff.
Respectfully, I have a terminology suggestion to answer the "but we don't have a storm yet" critics. We have the *precursors* to a storm.
Thanks for the real deal. I wrapped my whole house in plastic wrap lol. Gulf Shores Alabama here.
Thanks again Jonathan! The meteorological voice of reason!
Appreciate the info. Clearwater Beach FL is where I’m from.
We will be fine a little rain and wind
No worries, I plan my storm response to the threat...always. Active damage control, preparation, and readiness are the key to victory against the wind and wave. But when they say run...
Thank you for your coverage.. No fear mongering and just science. I am so Thankful for your content sir. Much ❤
You’re welcome! So glad you found it helpful! - Jonathan
Thank you for a good presentation without the scare tactics. Grateful in Bradenton/Sarasota, SWFL
You’re welcome! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan
FANTASTIC VIDEO!
ONE OF THE BEST!
MODELS ARE TOOLS
NOT METEOROLOGISTS!
Really appreciate that! Thank you! - Jonathan
Like you said only thing we can safely assume is something is developing and moving into the Gulf. Past that there's too many variables. Best thing we can do is go over emergency kits and review evac plans as precautions.
Thanks for the update and the transparency in your report!👍
You’re welcome! Thanks for tuning in again! - Jonathan
GEOENGINEERING
I do appreciate you giving us a heads up. God Bless you 🙏
Thank you for the information from Louisiana.
Thank you for the great weather information. Keep up the good work and we look forward to the next update.
Really appreciate that and for you tuning in! - Jonathan
Latest NHC shows NOTHING in Gulf in 7 days. But...
Forecasters are SO desperate for a storm.
Good , clean report. Thank you. 🎉
thank you, Jonathan. A lot of good information.
Love ur grounded, clear-headed yet acknowledging analysis as always, thank u! Like some completely ignore the hype OR go crazy with it but I love how u challenge or at least explain both sides and let us decide, well done sir!👊
Appreciate that! Yanks for tuning in! - Jonathan
@@just_weather thank u keep up the hard work ur the best!!!
It is impossible to track a storm until the center is located. There is no center until the storm is organized and spinning.
Even with all the models and information we have in meteorology today, we still can't predict the exact track and strength of a storm. People should prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and pay attention to what is happening.
Perhaps cleaning the slate clean with these models that can't ever agree on a track and forecast, perhaps new models need implemented, but hey you do keep it real.
Believe me the models are great. They have been predicting a storm in gulf for a couple of weeks. It’s just narrowing down the details! - Jonathan
The models have been wild this year. I've been a weather bug Floridian for years, track storms for weeks. I've never seen this much consistent divergence or miscalculations. The Euro has always been the go to for track. The GFS for intensity. Everything has been thrown through a loop and I'm not an expert onto why. I'm massively frustrated and this is only a hobby lol
👍👍👍. Jonathan, what ever happened to "cloud seeding?" Since it hasn't developed, why can't we try something to stop the development? I would love that as I'm on pins and needles in Lake Charles, La. Thanks so much for the updates and ur expertise of course. I hope u have a wonderful w/e as well. 🙏✌🤗
Thank you yes you cleared up a lot for me!
Kinda like forecasting a big snowstorm for the Northeastern states, it could be really intense, or amount to not that much of a deal...
Rockport Texas watching
Thank you so much!
Hi Jonathan, really appreciate your work....I have a question that is very important to me (west coast central Florida) do you think that these higher ocean temps, plus the deeper columns of super warm water in the gulf, Caribbean & Atlantic are an anomaly born of el nino, or do you think this is perhaps a persistent change moving forward, because I am so very tired of hurricane seasons (24 so far) may have to pull up roots and go back to tornado alley :D
I'm afraid that these hot ocean temps persisting well into late hurricane season & beyond, will make my area more of a target than in the past because of late year frontal boundaries causing that dreaded sharp eastern turn.
Thank you.
I’m going with the euro it’s the best model. It’s proven to be more accurate. Thanks Jonathan for keeping us informed.
Johnathan what is concerning is the global tekeconnections like TGE NAO AND AO are negative and the PNA is positive which lends to long wave troughs in the eastern 2/3 of the country. So if anything forms it looks to go east if the TC is strong. Weaker system will go west. Stronger system will follow upper air pattern while a weaker system will follow the low level steering flow. My educated guess is that
That is correct and it doesn’t bode well getting into October with more potential storms moving through the Caribbean. - Jonathan
Paging Ryan Hall for scaring everyone. 😂
😂
@@just_weather You the man! Knowing exactly what I'm saying. 😂❤
Wow!!!
dont freak out?!?!, there is so many possibilities, it could be a monster run coming next
There are! But there can be a mister from Florida to Texas and that would change a million times between now and Monday. - Jonathan
The Euro Geopotential looks like a boot and you said it "squashes" it. I see what you did there.
I think wind will sheer it apart.
Manufacturing another storm
Why is the Euro stomping on Texas?
Looks like though that Ridge of high pressure the euro is trying to show goes away and the storm lifts out of the Bay of Campeche into the Western tip of Florida and strengthens slightly to a 990 MB storm on the newest Euro run that's a slight change from previous Euro runs this is the strongest of the Euro has showed this so far 990
Amen
TURN ON THE WINDSHIELD WIPERS AS WE GO BACK AND FORTH, FORTH AND BACK!
Hi Johnathan....watching you from Central Florida. I have a question, and l am asking with all due respect. Since this thing technically hasn't even developed yet, do you as a meteorologist think there is a possibility this could actually fizzle out? Its probably just my wishful thinking, but what are the odds? Thank you so much for your time....and be safe! 🇺🇸🙏❤️ Also, l subscribed!
Hey welcome! I’m in central Florida too! You should watch News 6 if you don’t already! I will never say never when it comes to weather…but I think the odds of it fizzling out are pretty low. Guidance has suggested this system for a couple of weeks because of a large forcing mechanism know as the madden-Julian oscillation. That helps to get thunderstorms going and that will be moving through the Caribbean. Upper air environment also looks very conducive. Dry air could be hanging out in the western Gulf and it’s my hope it sucks it all in and dies but I’m probably wishcasting there! - Jonathan
@@just_weather Thank you Jonathan! Yes, that's pretty much what I thought, but I suppose we can always hope 🙏. If/where it makes impact, l hope everyone will be as prepared and safe as possible. I absolutely watch news channel 6 whenever I get the opportunity! 👍👍Be safe!
Never heard Tampa, more like Pensacola
Can't determine it yet until the weather manipulators decide where it goes and with what intensity ,correct?
Nope. Thats not a thing. If it was we would know. - Jonathan
Cool 😎
Forecasting the results of geoengineering a nonexistent storm.
Travel planned from FL - LA next weekend, I assume best to just wait until next week to cancel or decide?
I think that’s a good idea to just wait for now! Would alter anything until next week if it looks like it could threaten your areas. - Jonathan
Do 'models' need to prove some level of accuracy before they get a name (GFS, Euro, Canadian, etc) or can 'anyone' just post a model? Love for you to talk about that sometime 😊
What about the ECMWF-AI? It seems to follow the GFS and Canadian more closely. What exactly makes the AI different?
It's Ai
Every TH-cam weatherman I follow has showed all possible outcomes including the Euro. They show all model runs. Please don't group all TH-cam forecasters as gloom and doom.
Not sure who you follow but that’s still making my point. It doesn’t do any good to show those models when they are going to change. No one can forecast the outcome until we get the storm. You’re right though it’s not all. - Jonathan
@@just_weather all good. Just wanted you to recognize there are other intelligent forecasters even amatures who are not fear mongering but just presenting all the info even if it's not a cat 5. Thank you for what you do.
@@DaniStarshine absolutely. No good call for sure! - Jonathan
Is it rare for the models to have such varying forecasts??
At this stage of the game no. Once the center of the storm develops they start to converge much better!!a Jonathan
I have a quiestion. I’m in west Englewood. About 11/2 miles from lemon bay. If it ends up hitting near Tampa should I be concerned about surge from the bay? I’ve been through many hurricanes having lived in the VI for years then Fl. Winds don’t scare me. Flooding does😬
With you on that! I would think you would be ok but I would have to look up the flood zones. Don’t know Tampa zones off the top of my head. Would depend upon where it comes in as well. We will have you covered with that information as well if it threatens! - Jonathan
@@just_weather I’m way south from Tampa. Englewood is near Venice. I’m not in a flood zone but recent thunderstorms have brought water up higher than Ian. We got hit bad by that one.
Translation, everybody is guessing without a actual disturbance
Also the AI one to
That’s a good point! Forgot about that one to share. - Jonathan
Has there even been a scenario where we have talked about a possible storm that has yet to develop like this storm?
There has. Last year there was a scenario with Philippe and Rina. Different set up because they were impacting each other but that was expected to impact the Caribbean and never did because they inpacted each other’s track and never came into fruition. - Jonathan
@@just_weather I forgot about those two but now that you said that I do remember
My Faith is in Jesus. Mighty God is in control of it all. Lord knows living in Florida will test your faith. Lord willing looking forward to November. Anen
I am so glad that look at your channel because some of people are just saying it is goin to Florida then Louisiana and I was hurricane Katrina in Hurricane Ike I want look at a channel that goin to give me the good bad and the ugly. I thank you very much that you break it down to us to have a better understanding for us that live in golf I am in Louisiana know I just want someone to be honest and not hype it all up and scare people.
We will keep you posted for sure! - Jonathan
@@just_weather thank you very much I am have ankle replacement surgery on Monday the 23 I am goin go to have to have more time to get prepare.
Exactly! He gives us the why behind the what is happening. No hype or fear mongering!
looks like swiss cheese vortexes
This is why I am leaveing louisiana
Hi Jonathan 😅😅😅😅😅
Do you think a storm can hit SW, Fl?
Unfortunately it’s still in the realm of possibilities. Although I do think it is a little more likely north of you. But that’s not set in stone. - Jonathan
How reliable is the euro?
It’s typically very good but it has struggled this year. - Jonathan
Head to Florida
Here in the villages we've been fortunate woth no massive storms. I hope your wrong. we must always be prepared tho.
Me too! I hope it never forms. I’m in Florida too and really can’t afford insurance to go to even more. - Jonathan
Thank you! I'm done watching click bait weather.
You’re welcome!! Hope you found this helpful! - Jonathan
Is Panama City a target?
it's probably one if them yeah. I'm in TX but my parents live on st george Island so I'm always looking at that area
Yes. You should leave now
@@kevinf4606 🤣
It’s just too early…….
It's a battle of who's math is better?
Will it hit South Carolina?
Still too early to tell! - Jonathan
Yes. You should leave now
Kevin 😅
my local station is talking about it. do don't make claims you cant substantiate
I said on TH-cam. Referring to the non meteorologists. - Jonathan
Water DEPTH Temperatures are absolutely insane!
Upper 80’s !
LIGHT WIND SHEAR ALOFT!
High Moisture!
THIS can very easily become a major concern!
Once a clear surface area of low pressure surfaces…
It is off to the races!
No doubt about that. Environment is pristine of it separates from the gyre itself. - Jonathan
Will there be 3 hurricanes making landfall in the next weeks?
That’s a lot but honestly it’s possible. This one in the Gulf and then there is at least one storm likely following in the Caribbean or southwest Atlantic. Pattern is ripe for landfalls so we want to avoid development all together. - Jonathan
Probably not.
Johnathan, thank you for the updates! 👍
Please just stop talking about it! There is no storm!!!!!! You’ve been talking about nothing for 2 weeks. So desperate
Cause it’s my job to forecast the weather. It’s going to happen. If it bothers you don’t watch. Simple as that. - Jonathan