What If Japan Attacked The Soviet Union?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 พ.ค. 2024
- Watch next: "Every Significant Mongol Successor State; How The Mongols Fell in 1857"
• Every Significant Mong... -~-
#possiblehistory #Japan #soviets #sovietsiberia #ww2
What if, in an alternate WW2, Japan decided to invade Soviet Siberia instead of European controled Territory in Asia? How would the war itself have changed and - perhaps more importantly - how would the world after the war have looked.
The Germany in the thumbnails is from u/yeetmastor on Reddit!
If you like the content please like, comment and subscribe, it helps smaller channels like mine to get noticed!
If you want to support the channel you can go to my Patreon or become a member! You will get early access to video's and will be allowed to suggest priority video subjects!
/ possiblehistory
/ @possiblehistory
Possible Extra's a channel where we do not necessarily history related stuff, like podcasts and more!
/ @theobserverph
Gaming Channel:
/ @deletedchannel1010
Feel free to follow or join our social media platforms:
/ possiblehistory
/ possiblehistor1
/ discord
/ possible_history0
Most of our music By: Beta Records. He's great, check him out!
Link: goo.gl/peHHCX
Kevin McLoad
/ kevinmacleodarchive
![ใจเสาะบนเกาะนาคี - อ๊ะอาย สกุณาพร เสียงวิหค [Official MV] | ค่ายเพลงเป็นหนึ่ง](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/jbcmGQkfyOg/mqdefault.jpg)
Thank you for watching! If you enjoyed the video consider leaving a like and a comment, even just commenting something like "Hi" helps massively against the algorithm. For more weekly alternate history content consider subscribing!
Wouldn't Germany be able to conquer the Caucasus with Japanese help?
if the soviets run out of oil after 1942 it could get interesting.
hi
hi (hi)
Hi (Hi(Hi))
Cool video :)
If Japan was to invade the Soviet Union, I don't see any reason for them to do it in mid 1941-2 winter, it would make much more sense to do it together with Germany
You are right, I could have explored that more. I didn't put it in the script but for me it was largely about the Japanese hedging their bets before going all in on the Soviets. By waiting a little while to see how the German offensive goes Japan becomes emboldened and goes in as well. It's important to remember the attack against the Soviets would be a huge risk regardless of when they attacked.
True but the Japanese and Germans never truly cooperated during the war. Really none of the axis powers worked together in meaningful ways.
It cancelled its plans on the 9th of August 1941 for its invasion of Siberia to lake Baikal and half of Mongolia due to the USA oil embargo on the 1st of August, it moved large amounts of troops and equipment out of Manchuria for staging areas for the Pacific and / or moved to China.
The operation was to start in September 1941.
Edit: The operation was called (Kantokuen).
@@michaelthomas5433 yes, Germany and Japan never had common goals in our TL, just common enemies, but this would change in this new one
@@michaelthomas5433what about the joint attack on greece from germany and bulgaria. That was pretty cooperative
The Philippians would likely be one of the first colonies in the region to get independence because they were already scheduled for independence that got delayed by the Japanese attacks
If not for Japanese expansionism, they would've been independent in the mid-30s.
Wtf is the philippians
@@myhonestreaction6217a country in south east Asia
Pretty sure he is talking about the atrocious spellingmy friend@randomuser9883
I've never seen anyone name the Filipinos philippians
6:35 "Even with Japan being aware of the Japanese plans," I'd be very worried if they weren't aware of their OWN plans.
"We just attacked Peral Harbor."
"Ok"
...
...
...
"WE DID WHAT!?!?!?!?"
Reminds me of that one time that after the Assassination of JFK, the KGB pissed their pants and made sure they had zero association with the event. Basically:
"Privyet Comrade, the President of the USA was just assassinated."
"Truly saddening, send them our condolences."
...
...
...
"Did we do that?"
"What?"
"We have so much plans in defeating America, did we do that?"
@@USSFFRU JFK was killed by Americans, lol.
It's already find out. There is wasn't any reason to kill friendly president for Soviets.
Imperial Japanese international politics in a nutshell
in that time many officers of the japanese army acted out of the order of the civilian goverment.
An interesting variation here would be to assume that the isolationists somehow won out in the US and the US just stayed out of the war. Would the USSR and UK alone lose to Japan and Germany working closer together? I could see it ending up as at least a stalemate which would really change how the cold war would look.
there were many in the UK who wanted to make peace with Germany, perhaps in some alternative timeline the UK never gets involved to begin with and focuses on their own empires, perhaps if Oswald Mosley somehow took power he would join forces with Germany to gain French colonies, interesting potential but a lot of if's
@@golagiswatchingyou2966 Oswald Mosley was arrested wym took power
@@golagiswatchingyou2966 Oswald Mosley wouldn’t take power, but Lord Halifax could have become prime minister and signed a white peace with Germany
@@cantripleplays he almost became pm lost by only a few votes.
@@jwil4286 if his party was not banned, the prince not exiled and the war start a few years later he could have gotten into power.
Would the European theater really look the same with less land-lease and Soviet divisions stuck in the East? Wouldn't the Allies have gotten farther into Europe before the Russians reached Germany?
Absolutely, I considered talking about that but the reality is that with Roosevelt in charge and good American-Soviet relations the peace deal would likely look largely the same as in our timeline. Perhaps East Germany would be slightly bigger, but Germany being divided in occupation zone's and the Soviet/Western spheres were already largely decided before the reality of the German defeat.
It also means that Americans would enter the war much later giving them less time to prepare and potentially strengthen Germany in places like North Africa, Italy or anywhere else. Besides, war declaration on USSR by Japan would also bring Mongolia into the war which had quite a formidable army on its own, which while would require assistance can hold the Japanese off.
Not to mention that, Japan irl kept around 15 divisions in Manchuria with the Soviet Far East by 1941 having relatively same size which, despite popular opinions, only increased as the war went on from 600k troops in 1942 to 780k in 1944.
@@ivanserov1846 There's no reason for US to join the war. It's not the Gov that doesnt want war, US citizens doesnt want another war. They refuse to sent their childrens in another war. They even said what happens in China and Europe doesn't concern them. Let they kill each other they said.
@@anon_148 I think he meant to say West Germany
No, as Germany would have defeated the Soviet Union.
Wht if the japanese avoided both the soviets and americans and instead declared for the allies in exchange for china, despite how bizzare that would be?
What a fascinating concept! I am surprised I haven't seen anyone suggest this before.
It would be rejected but they would gain some meaningless islands plus some ports.
The allies don't want fascists OR other monarchies which don't have common but opposite things.
Also, in the peace treaty, the upper island that is right to manchuria, would probably get full control to Soviet union, but that is also bizarre since allies don't also want communist gains.
So, it would be possible that it would be same as Italy in ww1, helping in doing so; but gaining shiet lands, and some islands that are important MAY be transferred to the Soviet or america.
And it could be worse..
British Raj could get Thailand, which were forced to join japanese Confederates.
That would change the global index, global superpowers, and it would be real bad for today.
Amerikkka and UKKK would definitely accept. Not the Soviets
@@minarianimationslmao allies don’t want fascists 😂
America would have still waged war against them, America didn't go to war with Japan because of anything other than America's and Japan's imperial ambitions in the Pacific were irreconcilable
Can you do a *"What If the 1848 Revolutions were a Success"* next?
What if Aliens invade during 1985, would Reagan and Gorbachev went through their informal promise of helping one another? Lol 😂
Read books of Harry turtledove
Actually the Japanese could easily update their tanks to heavy one's to fight in Siberia, Japan was not incapable of producing heavy tanks, because of the Japanese navy wanting to take Indonesia and Indonesia being covered in jungles the Japanese tanks they used in WW2 were built specifically to fight in those tight jungles, but because this is Russia were talking about and because they are going all in on the USSR invasion, it's clear the Japanese army would want to start building heavy tanks.
japan wasnt able to create in 1 year a competable tank against kv-1/is-2. They could make a heavy tank, but it is almost a 100% chance it would be weaker in maintain, coordination, engine, penetrability and armor. Germans went through 10 year evolution of tank building school to create Pz-5/6, same with soviets for KV (they had even more time). Britain and US, hardly trying for 5 yrs, with all their industrial and highlevel science complex might, almost, but not reached a level of Germany and USSR (Tiger/Tiger 2 and Is-3/2, Kv-1). Churchills, Centurions, M26 and M6 tanks were created later than the sov/ger analogues and were weaker than them.
@@graymatterialist7076 Japan got 2x Tigers from Germany and they were transported in subs.
@@DarkSpiryt1 and? To recreate a modern for 1942 heavy tank you needed a whole new industries on the edge of technologies. Not just 2 tanks supplied to you. Soviets already in January 1943 had tiger as a trophy and still wasn't ready in the Kursk battle to massively counter them by tanks or artillery on the same distances tiger could beat them.
You need to have no lack in funding, research, high qualitty gunpowder, tungsten, molybdenum, osmium, difficult steel alloys and high octane fuel, radio, engine, optical equipment and more, and more, and more. With most of that Japan had problems. Even Germany started to have problems with some of that stuff like tungsten or molibdenum from 1944.
@@graymatterialist7076 recreate, yes, produce in mass quantity, no. Americans discover also jets in last stage of development in Japan as far as i know.
Honestly, the reason Japan didn't make tanks was more due to the lack of infrastructure to support it in those areas. China was so poor in infrastructure, it made no sense to bring heavy equipment. It was light stuff or basically none at all. I don't think even the Americans were using too much genuinely heavy equipment there in their island hopping.
Tysm! You actually show a map and explain what you think is the most likely scenario unlike other alt history channels which talk about random nonsense for 20 minutes and don’t give much useful information that answers the question of what would happen. I subscribed.
The Japanese government and how it effectively operated leading up to and during WW2 is fascinating. Like, the emperor was essentially a figure head. Then you had military leaders truly running the country. And most military governments would be just that, but Japan went even further and had the 2 factions in this military government between their Navy and Army. They were fighting each other as much as they were waging war. And it's honestly surprising how well they were able to do with that.
mainly because of chinas crappy forces
i kinda don t see the soviets winning when being given less lend lease because siberia is blocked ore seing america join the war at all
The vast majority of the lend lease was sent after halfway through 1942, it only expedited Soviet victory
@@anon_148 lend lease only expedited the war, it didn't change the outcome
@@chadthundercock4806 Lend Lease didnt just speed up the war, without Lend Lease the Soviets would have outright lost the war, it absolutely changed the outcome because the Soviets only stood no chance, without the millions of US and Western troops defeating the Germans in Western Europe, Italy, and North Africa, plus without the US giving the USSR billions of dollars worth of guns, ammo, tanks, planes, trucks, jeeps, tractors, trains and locomotives, boxcars, train rail tracks, tires, steel, explosives, aluminum, wire, rubber, gun powder, fuel, food, clothes, blankets, cotton, army boots, radios, and other crucial military and logistical equipment through US Lend Lease then the USSR would have been steamrolled by Germany, the Soviet leaders them selves Khrushchev, Zhukov, and even Stalin himself all admit that the USSR would have lost WW2 if it wasnt for the US, i think ill take their word for it over yours, you know the men who ACTUALLY fought the war in person
Though a lot of the lend lease had gone to places like Vladivostok, I see no reason why the american in this alt timeline wouldn't just increase the amount of suppies going through Iran.
"Japan invaded Siberia, 500k of their troops lost their life there. They yet to see 1st russian soldier"
Good video, also here’s a video idea “what if Germany survived Endsieg?”
Pretty doubtful they would, depending on when does the Endsieg starts
Steiner counterattack
Could you possibly do “What if east Germany (somehow) survived”. Loved the video!
Nuke
@@bobbyskeet2118 How? Yanks didn't have good rocketry, they can't fly a slow ass plane and just drop a nuke, it would get shot down lmao, Japan had no air defence in comparison
Cool video, didn’t expect the effect this what if would have on places like Indonesia though I know very little about South East Asia.
Good video - a few critiques:
1 - The maps could to with some improvements, considering how much of the video is showing it ( Things like sloppily dome borders, anachronistic Aral Sea, little white bits you didn’t fill in, etc(
2 - The idea that the Soviets relied on transferred Siberian divisions is a popular myth ( most of the divisions were just transferred from other parts of the German front)
Otherwise really good stuff, I like the focus on realism and you definitely deserve more subs
he tackled that myth tho in the video a bit saying that the Siberian divisions not being able to be diverted away wouldn't have much of an impact
@@agonzalez7095 The myth is that all of the Siberian divisions were in Siberia when that isn't true
there was no Siberian divisions already on the German front, the Siberian divisions that came to the west were pulled from the divisions that were in the far east to fight a potential war with Japan, which then left the far eastern USSR vulnerable to the Japanese, equipped Siberian divisions were deployed protecting the USSR’s eastern borders against a possible attack by Japan, on 22nd June 1941, they were then transferred west from October to November 1941 in time to have a decisive influence on the battle for Moscow. According to the same historical wisdom these divisions were released from October to November 1941, after Stalin had learned from his spy network in Japan, run by Richard Sorge, that the Japanese had canceled their plan of Operation Kantokuen. Apparently by November 1941 these same Siberian divisions were being encountered all along the front protecting Moscow. The following quote typifies the current common perception, “The Siberians are coming!" yelled the German Wehrmacht in the winter of 1941. Since June 22, the Red Army had lost millions of dead, wounded and captured soldiers, while the Wehrmacht had advanced to the very gates of Moscow itself. The ever distrustful Josef Stalin had primarily put his faith in the word of one man (Richard Sorge), and had ordered division after division of his armies in the Far East to be transported as quickly as possible to the west to blunt the German advance”
WWII History, Sovereign Media Company Inc, March 2002 issue, pp. 30, 81. Examples of these or similar statements are common in WWII historical literature
An individual examination of the history of each Red Army division that existed on 22nd June 1941 reveals that from 23rd June to 31st December 1941, a total of 28 divisions were transferred west. From 1942-1945 staggering amounts of more Siberian divisions were being diverted to the west, this included 18 rifle divisions, one mountain rifle division, three tank divisions, three mechanized divisions and three mountain cavalry divisions. The transfers occurred mainly in June (11 divisions) and October (nine divisions). Of the 11 divisions transferred in June, nine were rifle divisions already assigned to the Reserves of the STAVKA GK. These divisions comprised the 153rd, 174th and 186th Rifle Divisions attached to the 22nd Army (moving from east of the Urals Military District), and the 91st, 119th, 166th, 107th, 133rd and 178th Rifle Divisions attached to the 24th Army (moving from the far eastern Siberian Military District). Both these armies were already in transit or already under orders to move on 22nd June 1941. The decision to move the 24th Army from Siberia with its six rifle divisions had already been made before Barbarossa started, and by this time the 24th Army was already in Stavka reserve. The 24th Army’s rifle divisions had all arrived west of Moscow by 7th July 1941 and these were all committed before the end of the month. All these divisions were formed in the Siberia Military District and so by rights could be called ‘Siberian’ divisions, after the invasion started, the 57th Tank and 69th Mechanized Division were immediately ordered west and they arrived in June/July
What would be the effect of a German-Japanese invasion of the USSR? The effect on the USSR would have been a total disaster. During the war, Germany’s biggest nightmare was to have to fight on two fronts. A Japanese campaign against the Soviets would have flipped that nightmare of a two front war around on the USSR instead. Remember how close that war came; the German Army got within 8km or 5 miles of Moscow. If they had faced even slightly diminished Soviet forces along the way, their campaign would have turned out very differently. Especially without the millions of US and Western troops defeating the Germans in Western Europe, Italy, and North Africa, plus without the US giving the USSR billions of dollars worth of guns, ammo, tanks, planes, trucks, jeeps, tractors, trains and locomotives, boxcars, train rail tracks, tires, steel, explosives, aluminum, wire, rubber, gun powder, fuel, food, clothes, blankets, cotton, army boots, radios, and other crucial military and logistical equipment through US Lend Lease, the USSR would have folded entirely, Even if Japan gave the invasion only half-hearted invasion, it still would have diverted massive amounts of Soviet military power toward the east. And industry as well - Stalin relocated much of their military production to the far east, away from Germany’s bombers. That would have put a lot of them within reach of Japan’s bombers instead. It’s a no-brainer. The USSR would have collapsed like a house of cards.
My idea was that if japan were to attack the soviets it would be a much closer date to when Germany started their invasion maybe even at the same time as their would be much more reason for both nations to be in contact with each other in this timeline. The Japanese army wanted this invasion well before they knew the German invasion was approaching so they wouldn't have had the mindset of waiting to see either. I still think that the axis would lose but the suprise factor of a two front war at the same time would definitely cause more damage at least in the opening stages of the war to the soviets
Maybe the war ends with the western allies getting most of Germany
I imagine that the Soviet winter offensive deals less damage to the Germans and the Germans manage to have more success in Case Blue as a result of a significant portion of the Red Army being tied to fighting the Japanese.
If they picked "after the Soviets got stomped by Finland" then the timelines might actually end up lining up naturally
the Germans alone would have already defeated the Soviets in a 1 on 1 war if not for Lend Lease, in which world does the Axis lose if also Japan invades the USSR from the east? without the millions of US and Western troops defeating the Germans in Western Europe, Italy, and North Africa, plus without the US giving the USSR billions of dollars worth of guns, ammo, tanks, planes, trucks, jeeps, tractors, trains and locomotives, boxcars, train rail tracks, tires, steel, explosives, aluminum, wire, rubber, gun powder, fuel, food, clothes, blankets, cotton, army boots, radios, and other crucial military and logistical equipment through US Lend Lease then the USSR would have been steamrolled by Germany, and if Japan also invades from the east, the Soviets would get crushed and wiped from existence
Very interesting scenario that isn't covered too much, atleast not in a realistic video anyway, keep up the good work, it's clear you have made several videos while you were gone and I can't wait to see the next ones in the following days Mr. Potential!
Hey I just wanted to let you know that I love your channel and that your videos are cool
I really appreciate how unsensational you are in your analysis and your predictions. It feels like a ton of people love to talk about impossibly hypotheticals and insane domino effects. It's a breath of fresh air to have someone who says, "No, that wouldn't happen bar an actual miracle."
I don't think Japan at the time gets enough credit for how much potential they had and squandered. Three main things to avoid at all costs, avoid getting the American's involved in anyway, so avoid touching the Philippines and whatever else is needed. Avoid conflict with the Soviet Union (unless it had honestly been a concerted effort by all three Axis members, which obviously was not happening), and the third is avoiding a large scale conflict with China proper. There were places and resources to grab without going the way that they did. Sure, smaller goal, but stay away from China and the Americans. Grabbing the Dutch East Indies alone should have been a sizable goal, especially once Germany struck west, rapidly topping European power after the other. Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and when you're also blinded by a false sense of racial superiority, well, you're going to swing for the fence.
If Japan and the Germans had been working together from the beginning, which was never how they operated, then it would have been more useful to have Japan launch such a large scale invasion in the East forcing Stalin to send significant forces East, and then once focus shift East, then having Germany drive into the Soviet Union as hard as they can. Still was a long shot at best. The biggest weakness among the Axis powers, aside from just way overshooting their shot, was that they didn't work together for a much more unified goal. Each working in different directions, took what was already bad numbers and divided them even further.
pretty much the biggest weakness of the axis powers indeed their lack of coordination, the allies did only slightly better but they had more resources, manpower and less reason to backstab and mistrust eachother.
as for Japan, getting involved with China worked out pretty well before but this time they chewed up way more then they could chew so that was a major mistake, it was getting involved in China that caused the oil embargo by the USA so avoiding that as much as possible would have been best.
taking the colonies and leaving China alone would have been the best and easiest bet, might have gotten them more oil and maintain the oil from the USA though even then that would be a big risk.
at that point they should have prepared for an invasion of the USSR, after all China is hard, USA is a no-no but if Germany is planning on going into the USSR anyways and you have nothing else left to try and take over, you could risk making sure no other European power could threaten you which was Japan's main goal to begin with and getting resources, the Russian far east and potential oil from the west of Russia via Germany could have been a potential good deal but if you were wise you would indeed just keep the colonies and hope in the end nobody comes back for them.
Agreed, both Germany and Japan at the time was obsessed with their "racial pureness", and when open racist ally with each other there is only so much trust to be had, anyways I'm glad they were idiots, I just hoped they caused less damage
If Japan and Germany had been coordinating against the Soviet Union, Japan could have focused a heavy force to attack the Far East, with hopes of pulling as many troops from the West as possible. From there as forces start to slightly shift East, then Germany could drive from the West. This would split the Soviet forces more significantly.
If not doing that, if Japan was going to invade China, I think that they could have made attempts to work with Communist China, striking a deal where they could divide the nation between the two. Of course Japan would never have considered it, but the fact that all of China was against Japan, regardless of ideology, was no aid to the Japanese war efforts.
The Second World War truly showed the differences between global coordination and cooperation versus disunity and disorganization. I am glad that the Axis Powers were not organized. If they truly had been early on, they likely could have kept the Allies out of the war either altogether, or at least to a more significant point and god only knows the way that history would have played out. Interesting all the same though to consider.
What if Russia fully settled the far east? The Russian population in Siberia is minuscule (only like 37 million) even tho it can easily sustain a much larger demographic.
i mean you can’t say they didn’t try. i struggle to think of what they could possibly have done to settle it more. people just don’t want to live in siberia
Oh they did, during the soviet times they had massive incentive for people to move there, but with the USSR gone many find that there isn't much economic opportunities there compare the the Western half and you had a massive population movement out of far east. There isn't much Russian can do beyond what it already did, the far east just isn't that attractive, the weather is very bad during winter, the place is just too big so transportation cost is very expensive, there isn't any major river going horizontally for cheaper transportation and the entire far east is good as land locked with ports that freeze half time of the year. But had Russia somehow taken a part of Northern China they would have stand a chance but the CHinese would resist to the death before it let that happen.
@@ZxZ239 they did take part of northern china in 1958, thats how they got vladivostok
@@duskpede5146 what kind of alternate reality mushrooms are you smoking i want some too
@@quan-uo5ws google the Treaty of Aigun to find out more.
The world you created at the end there sounds fascinating.
cool video i love watching you possible* history
You should do more research. The soviets never had less than 1.5 million soldiers in the border with Japan, thousands of plains and tanks too. They were terrified of being attacked by Japan.
Even in the worst time in the west, they never pulled troops back. Moscow was saved by central Asian troops.
Possible history is apparently a sovietboo.
wrong, the Soviets pulled millions of far eastern Siberian troops to the west to fight against the Germans which made the eastern USSR vulnerable against Japan, equipped Siberian divisions were deployed protecting the USSR’s eastern borders against a possible attack by Japan, on 22nd June 1941, they were then transferred west from October to November 1941 in time to have a decisive influence on the battle for Moscow. According to the same historical wisdom these divisions were released from October to November 1941, after Stalin had learned from his spy network in Japan, run by Richard Sorge, that the Japanese had canceled their plan of Operation Kantokuen. Apparently by November 1941 these same Siberian divisions were being encountered all along the front protecting Moscow. The following quote typifies the current common perception, “The Siberians are coming!" yelled the German Wehrmacht in the winter of 1941. Since June 22, the Red Army had lost millions of dead, wounded and captured soldiers, while the Wehrmacht had advanced to the very gates of Moscow itself. The ever distrustful Josef Stalin had primarily put his faith in the word of one man (Richard Sorge), and had ordered division after division of his armies in the Far East to be transported as quickly as possible to the west to blunt the German advance”
WWII History, Sovereign Media Company Inc, March 2002 issue, pp. 30, 81. Examples of these or similar statements are common in WWII historical literature
An individual examination of the history of each Red Army division that existed on 22nd June 1941 reveals that from 23rd June to 31st December 1941, a total of 28 divisions were transferred west. From 1942-1945 staggering amounts of more Siberian divisions were being diverted to the west, this included 18 rifle divisions, one mountain rifle division, three tank divisions, three mechanized divisions and three mountain cavalry divisions. The transfers occurred mainly in June (11 divisions) and October (nine divisions). Of the 11 divisions transferred in June, nine were rifle divisions already assigned to the Reserves of the STAVKA GK. These divisions comprised the 153rd, 174th and 186th Rifle Divisions attached to the 22nd Army (moving from the east of the Urals Military District), and the 91st, 119th, 166th, 107th, 133rd and 178th Rifle Divisions attached to the 24th Army (moving from the far eastern Siberian Military District). Both these armies were already in transit or already under orders to move on 22nd June 1941. The decision to move the 24th Army from Siberia with its six rifle divisions had already been made before Barbarossa started, and by this time the 24th Army was already in Stavka reserve. The 24th Army’s rifle divisions had all arrived west of Moscow by 7th July 1941 and these were all committed before the end of the month. All these divisions were formed in the Siberia Military District and so by rights could be called ‘Siberian’ divisions, after the invasion started, the 57th Tank and 69th Mechanized Division were immediately ordered west and they arrived in June/July.
without the millions of US and Western troops defeating the Germans in Western Europe, Italy, and North Africa, plus without the US giving the USSR billions of dollars worth of guns, ammo, tanks, planes, trucks, jeeps, tractors, trains and locomotives, boxcars, train rail tracks, tires, steel, explosives, aluminum, wire, rubber, gun powder, fuel, food, clothes, blankets, cotton, army boots, radios, and other crucial military and logistical equipment through US Lend Lease then the USSR would have been steamrolled by Germany
@@UserName-om6ft Its not true that the USSR moved troops from the East when it was the critical moment to save Moscow. It was Central Asian troops + mobilized troops.
*Happy sounds of Zhukov and Khalkin Gol intensify*
I approve of the video.
While I don't disagree with anything in particular, I do think the chance of the SU blundering Moscow in 41 or 42 are significantly higher than you imply.
I read a short story with a similar premise called "hokushin", which can be found in the book "rising sun victorious". The way that japan decides to attack the soviet union rather than the united states is actually well done and creative (albeit a bit unrealistic), and I do recommend that you read it for yourself.
Of course this channel has the scenario everyone wants but can't find. It seems like it kind of balanced out mostly
🇺🇸: dont u DARE-
japan: *attacks by accident* misclick lol- *ded*
ussr: told ya
I think an interesting video would be “What if the Axis had a coordinated global strategy”, although that seems like a pretty big topic.
Sick vid
"Japan couldnt beat China by themselves." You assume China was fighting by themselves.
For the most part they were.
China is pretty dang big. The Chinese survived just as the Soviets would have if Japan had attacked the USSR: trade space for time.
The difference with the USSR though is that they were under attack in the West as well. This video is making the case that it wouldn't have affected the USSR on the front with Germany very much if they had also been attacked by Japan in the east.
Poppycock, I say.
Except for the American pilots, the material aid, the embargos against Japan. They recived plenty of war support from the lther allies just like the soviets got lend lease (which they didnt even pay back)
@@dervogalfanger3097u forget that the RoC was destroyed by the PRC?
Comment for the algorithm. Also, for a great video!
Interesting video.
2 Things I can see happen in this Timeline:
- Japan once it is unified after the collapse of the USSR, this Japan would ironically become more powerful than our own Japan as this Japan would never had gone through years of Pacifism.
- My country the Philippines if it finally becomes Independent would be much better off along with the rest of Southeast Asia as Ferdinand Marcos would not likely rise to power due to the Philippines having more American Influence on its Government due to it being a US Territory a bit longer.
The question I have is what would the best way for Japan to play their hand. I doubt I'll ever see a decent scenario on it because it would involve a lot of military restraint, and alternate history people prefer scenarios with more guns being fired.
Could u do a video on what if operation unthinkable happened?
Good video
Here's a scenario for the future:
What if the State of Israel was never established (It will be canceled in 8 minutes, but they will be glorious 8 minutes).
During the peace talks of WW1, Ho Chi Minh (under a different pseudonym) allegedly tried to work his way into the conference to get autonomy under french rule, to no avail. Would be interesting to see a video on how things like the second war, the Indochina wars, etc would have gone had he been entertained
Any possible future video for a What If to the Imjin War?
Awesome! 😍
your like the best alt history channel
I've noticed that, in general, a *lot* has to change even in alternate history for Asia to go differently, possibly including the 2nd Sino-Japanese War.
The Japanese assessment of the Europeans was correct. They were not able to keep their holdings in South East Asia after WW2. Unfortunately, that was too late for the Imperial Japanese forces
The key counter-factual for the Axis Powers is them switching as early as possible (ideally years before the war) from relying on oil-derived fuels to alcohol fuels, in particular, methanol, which is most cheaply and easily derived from natural gas, but can also be made from coal much more easily than the crushingly expensive and low-yield coal-to-gasoline system Germany used in our timeline. Methanol can also be made from any organic matter including wet trash, sewage, and waste biomass like kudzu, etc. Higher octane than even aviation gasoline (which the Axis was particularly deficient in). Methanol can also be cheaply and easily made into di-methyl ether (DME) which is an excellent diesel fuel. Yes methanol and DME have lower range than gasoline and conventional diesel but being able to produce them easily in such abundance makes up for that given how fuel-starved the Axis was in our timeline, and given how methanol and DME would free up scarce gasoline for truly necessary long-range operations like maritime patrol. Romania has lots of natural gas which was treated like an unwanted waste product and just flared off at the Ploesti oil fields, kind of like how in the earliest days of the oil industry when kerosene for lamps was the main/only end product, gasoline was regarded as unwanted useless byproduct from the distillation process and just dumped into rivers. Incredible waste!
gotta love how maps in videos like this keep having british south cameroon being labelled as part of french cameroon
also you accidentally labelled all of timoras portuguese at the end
Lend lease was not insignifigant at the start of the war. 50% of the hevy tanks defending Moskva where british.
Most of defenders were Soviet medium tanks
11:40 except the fleet was developped following the nanshun doctrine, which is not the case here
Finland: You didn't have to cut me off
One thing to remember is the soviet forces involved in the border skirmishes with Japan were some of there best troops but the Japanese troops were second line colonial troops and occupation forces I believe had the Japanese troops in northern Manchuria been front line troops they would have defeated the soviets
It's not a bad what if but some holes in your assessment.
A two front war against the soviets would have crippled them, and the region alone would have starved millions of soviets meaning more needed in agriculture and less on the front line's both due to that and a large amount starving, had it been lost it was a major grain and other food producer in the USSR, obviously it wasn't the majority but from the top of my head when you lost something like 40% of live stock, 60% of your farmland and 50% of your horse's losing another 10% would be crippling, especially seeing as the soviets used more horses then Germany did in ww2, the Japanese also planed to move up to lake Baikal by the end of 1942, that would put them within rage of the soviets biggest iron ore mine left and produced 30% of the soviet iron ore in ww2, not to mention many other smaller mines lost of other resources, alone it wasn't much but losing so much to Germany in 41/42 it would have had massive effects.
For most of the war, the Japanese only had about 1 million+ men in China excluding Manchuria, seeing as when it surrendered, it had over 7million military personal and 1million allies and puppet's I'd say your assessment of the Japanese being spread thin is not a reality at lest compared to our own time line.
Both sides wouldn't be able to have more then a few million men in Siberia Russia obviously, but the Japanese would have had at lest 2 to 3million on the Chinese-Russian front, that would leave about 4million personal still available and 200k to 700k of it's allies, or them getting trained in 1943 to 45.
The Japanese also called up the civilian population about 31 million conscripts to fight the majority with just bamboo spears. Luckily, oparation downfall never happened.
Obviously, the Japanese military in 1945 wouldn't have been the same size in 1942/43, but the same said for all combatants.
Less lend-lease, as mentioned, would also mean less war material and more food products from other nations, something unlikely to make a difference till at least 1944, arguably very unlikely the USSR would have survived that long or much longer at this point.
The USSR would probably still be fighting in or near moscow, meaning the Germans would probably still be at their furthest extent, still by the end of 1943.
The Far East was stripped of equipment sent to fight Germany, it's tanks about 3k, aircraft about 4k, artillery about 16k, trucks and cars about 40k ect, and later on a large amount of its manpower, something that wasn't changed till mid 44 when soviets started moving men and equipment over for the invasion of Manchuria.
The evental entry of the USA was inevitable.
The population didn't want war, but the government did.
Cutting oil to the Japanese was a great plan, the government even voted in 1940 not to because it wasn't ready for war and they new the Japanese would act aggressively, however a surprise attack they actually didn't expect.
It's also likely the Japanese would be stronger because of the USA still trading, as the Japanese never managed to get the resources they went to war for, as in they didn't get it back to the home island or out of the ground in time for the majority of it to make a difference to there war effort, the Japanese also by the time the USA entered the war would have probably still done what it did in our time line just at a later date, but with more resources from Russia making a small difference, by this time the soviets would be near or have collapsed making the USA have to consider a peace deal.
Love it
You're great
Woah, did anyone else hear that little jingle at around 4:15 ?
Germany would take Moscow then..
Personally I would love to see a timeline which starts like this but once America joins the war they ally with Britain and Japan, rather then with the allies against the axis.
Would the Americans do anything during the Chinese civil war?
I would be curious as a offshoot from this video. What would have taken for Japan to have been successful to some degree at least in world war II?
You have talked about an unreasonable scenario, and described rightly why it was unreasonable and wouldn't happen. But history tells us sometime unreasonable things happen. A more plausible scenario would be a moderation of Japanese militarism. A moderate line between attacking in China and upsetting the West, and just keeping Japan out of direct conflict with the west. Political manuevering in the Dutch East Indies, Malaya, India, Philipines to support independence movements. Covert support, then trade agreements with the new governments. Plus political manuvering in China to continue to keep them fragmented. The US can be split from Britain over the issues of independance. A longer political game or a game started earlier could potentially get them access to some of the resources that they need. But really the main thing Japan needed was a solution to the logistical challenges in China. That requires more trucks, and more railroads. Which clearly also requires more oil and industry. But with the right preparation and more time it was not impossible. Another potential option is for a political settlement with China first. In one of these scenarios they could make a more serious attempt at the Soviet East. You also need to understand that the Japanese army was designed to fight China, a longer term decision to attack the Soviets would have led to the use of different material and tactics.
all well mixed to make america involved and winner. My compliments! How to change things to have the same result.
6:30 even with Japan being aware of Japanese plans
12:20 the soviet logistical system was almost entirely American so I can see absolutely no scenario where the Soviets survive if japan doesn’t bomb Pearl Harbor
Exactly. And the Japanese only invaded Indochina due to a shipment of tons of supplies to China in the area. With Russia there’s almost no possibility of a shipment like that being near japans influence considering Russia has more territory and proximity in the west . So likely no invasion and therefore no Pearl Harbor , then the us enters war even later if at all. The German invasion of the Soviets is even better because the Russian rail system heavily relied on U.S steel. Either Stalin gets troops to the East and has too slow an the Germans invade or he has troops in the east and has to quickly evacuate to the west to fight the Germans.
Lol nice American propaganda
@@historyking9984 That's just false, Japan mostly invaded to take the resources in the south needed for the war
The vast majority of lend lease was after 1942
so how did the soviets beat the germans in Moscow and Stalingrad before 1943 when lend lease became significant ?
What Kuril islands were given to Japan?
Right on time
I think it would’ve led to the defeat of the Soviet Union AND japan. In OTL the soviets kept hundreds of thousands of men and thousands of tanks and planes in its eastern regions to counter a possible Japanese threat, and succeeded in defeating Germany without those men and tanks.
However in this alternate scenario a Japanese invasion, while I don’t think would be powerful enough to occupy even a small/moderate amount of eastern Russia, would atrophy the soviets military potential.
So while the soviets would be losing against the European axis and successfully defending against japan, it still means they’d have to send replacements to continue its successful defense in Siberia
13:02 noooooooo
this unplays how weak the soviets was and unplays the stuff they get from the USA even the soviets said if they didn't get the help from the USA they didn't have the strength to push Germany let alone fight a 2 front war with Japan. it is true Japan land force was weak and little out dated but they was zeals so that would not stop them from taking a lot more land and with out Japan attacking the USA the changes of Germany taking the risk of attacking USA ships would be to great when they was already being slow in soviet
Most of the lend lease arrived by late 1942 to early 1943. By that point the German logistics were way overextended and were being pushed back. Not counting that American lend-lease only accounted for a small part of all equipment used during the war.
@@sebastianjoseph9628 most of Lend Lease came in early-mid 1942 and the Germans didnt start losing ground until 1943, without the millions of US and Western troops defeating the Germans in Western Europe, Italy, and North Africa, plus without the US giving the USSR billions of dollars worth of guns, ammo, tanks, planes, trucks, jeeps, tractors, trains and locomotives, boxcars, train rail tracks, tires, steel, explosives, aluminum, wire, rubber, gun powder, fuel, food, clothes, blankets, cotton, army boots, radios, and other crucial military and logistical equipment through US Lend Lease then the USSR would have been steamrolled by Germany, Lend-Lease provided a useful supplement of logistical supplies (including motor vehicles and railroad equipment) were of enormous assistance, Much of the meaning of Lend-Lease aid can be better understood when considering the innovative nature of World War II, as well as the economic distortions caused by the war. One of the greatest differences with prior wars was the enormous increase in the mobility of armies. This was the first big war in which whole formations were routinely motorized; soldiers were supported with large numbers of all kinds of vehicles. Most belligerent powers severely decreased production of non-essentials, concentrating on producing weapons. This inevitably produced shortages of related products that are required for industrial or logistical uses, particularly unarmored vehicles. On the Allied side, there was almost total reliance upon American industrial production, weaponry and especially unarmored vehicles purpose-built for military use, vital for the modern army's logistics and support. The USSR was very dependent on rail transport and starting during the latter half of the 1920s but accelerating during the 1930s, hundreds of American industrial giants were commissioned to construct modern dual-purpose factories in the USSR. Lend-Lease aid of military hardware, components and goods to the Soviet Union constituted to 70% percent of the Soviet military equipment. The rest were foodstuff, nonferrous metals (e.g., copper, magnesium, nickel, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum), chemical substances, petroleum (high octane aviation gasoline) and factory machinery. The aid of production-line equipment and machinery were crucial and helped to maintain adequate levels of Soviet armament production during the entire war. In addition, the USSR received wartime innovations including penicillin, radar, rocket, precision-bombing technology, the long-range navigation system Loran, and many other innovations.
I’m just wondering how considering how much the west is influenced by Japanese media how half of Japan being communist would impact all of that.
Japan allied with the Chinese nationalist against the Soviet union would work..
What if Japan would have stayed neutral in ww1 and independently have started a war with the Dutch to conquer Indonesia while everyone else is busy with ww1?
what i am more interested in is if: Japan instead of attacking china and the allies decided to commit their full war machine on the soviet. lets say that in 1941 Japan wasn't at war with anyone, and then when they saw how well germany was initially doing against the ussr, then decided to invade with full force.
Would this have been enough to break the mighty soviet? or at least let japan gain some territorial expantion in a peace deal with the ussr?
If America wouldn’t join until late 1942 to early 1943 then they wouldn’t have produced near what they actually produced in 1942 thus making Soviet and British lend lease that much less
One thing i believe you did not mention was the fact that a massive amount of US lend lease was shipped into the USSR through Vladivostok. Without it, the USSR doesn’t get nearly as much lending lease. Is that not an important factor to consider?
I have to disagree on Moscow, the Germans were already IN Moscow and without both the Siberian troops and importantly further the diversion of military supplies being able to be done as effectively I see Germany taking Moscow. However what that would actually change or not compared to the rest of this scenario might be alot, or might not be much at all as the German advance would still stall out after Moscow. The real issue I have is Stalin was more or less stuck IN Moscow due to a combination of factors, and weird circumstances, as a result I think Stalin might be killed or captured which could have a wide range of effects.
Germans were are the gates of Moscow, that fact alone is enough to confirm that they wouldn't have taken the city. For example, Germans took more than 90% of all Stalingrad, but still they got encircled and destroyed in a city 15 times smaller. They couldn't even take Leningrad.
@@saidblanco7696 Thats a bad example as the situation in Moscow was very different from Stalingrad. One notable aspect is the Germans were unable to prevent soviet resupply in Stalingrad, something that would be very much possible in Moscow.
Further the idea that they did not take something thus they COULD NOT take something is in itself a bad argument
@@saidblanco7696 the Soviets would have lost WW2 if not for the US learn real history
Japan had half of Sakhalin island. I saw a documentary about some buildings and places Japan had when it had that island. Of course the Russians had put Russian names to the towns there. But Japan had Japanese names on the island prior to the end of World War II. It was a fascinating video I seen.
Would taking Vladivostok hinder Soviet trade with the americans? I think 12% of lend lease equipment was sent to the soviets, in what port where they delivered ?
A point about "Siberian divisions" to defend Moscow. These didn't come from the Far East or even central Siberia, but instead came mostly from the Ural region close to European Russia. So, Japanese invasion is unlikely to tie up these reserves if the Soviets choose not to defend the far East but fall back.
My friend described it in my favorite way "they're a country with very low manpower, but they're fighting like they have a ton"
Thinking out loud here:
Not pulling back all of the far east divisions but due to lack of strategic importance of far east lets say pulling back 50% of the historic numbers. Worst I can see happening is that Moscow has a street battle similar to Stalingrad or Leningrad, but judging by the strategic situation it might even come out worse for the germans as they face getting bogged down in a hostile city battle in a scorched ruin midwinter in 1941-42 instead of 42-43.
The chance of them taking moscow is similar to the chance of them taking Leningrad or Stalingrad in our historic timeline, quite slim. Now in terms of situations required to happen for Japan to be interested in the north approach as well as gain something from it.
The oil and rubber shortage needs to be solved and the main shortage needs to be metals, rare earths and coal. If that occurs far east looks very tempting, it has, however, at this point almost no oil so without some radical change in the japanese economy such as an enormous synthethic oil industry domestically and no embargo of needed supplies to run it, I just dont see the Japanese going north.
Assuming that when Japan starts to build a large navy they also realize they'll need a domestic synthethic oil production capability and they focus heavily on it and forgo needing oil and rubber rich territories and get left with only the metal and possibly coal shortage, maintain if not good then at least acceptable relationships with the west and capitalize in all their benefits from these changes to a strictly strike north campaign and going perhaps as far west as Ulan Bataar and then start to entrentch themselves they might be able to delay the end of the european war to 1946 but its unlikely to change anything.
Post war such a policy is likely to result in a soviet occupation zone on Japan.
Either way the best path for an authocratic dictatorial state is Autarky and withdrawal from global affairs.
6:33 even with japan being aware of the japanese plans.
Considering it's Siberia an invasion wouldn't end well, however "pretending" to invade might at least have forced the USSR to fight on two fronts, basically attack and retreat back to where it's not a logistical nightmare in order to slowly drain the USSR's manpower and supplies.
the Soviets would have lost badly
If japan was to invade ussr the navy would be way weaker as most of japan would be sent to the army so japan would have a better army and japan and Germany would probably actually work togther in this timeline
Could the British have stopped the Germans in North Africa in 1942 without the US in the war? The British in Africa would've gotten a lot less supplies and tanks , and there would be no Operation Torch.
I think President Roosevelt would've found it hard to convince the country to enter the war to help communist USSR.
Yes, the British would still have won at El Alamein and would still have marched all the way to Tunisia. It may have been a little more difficult to take Sicily without American help, but the British may have still been able to do it. The British still could have gotten ashore on the Italian mainland but perhaps would have been delayed by a few months because of extra fighting in North Africa and Sicily.
An important factor in an attack on Russia depends on when they attacked. If they chose to strike north, say in November or December 1941, after many Sibetian units were shipped West since they were part of the units sent to stop the Germans ar Moscow. Then with careful choices of landing sites to flank Soviets' defensive lines. This would give them S8beria's resources u rces.
They already tried in our timeline. Battle of Khalkin Gol didn't go well for them
What would be the effect of a German-Japanese invasion of the USSR? The effect on the USSR would have been a total disaster. During the war, Germany’s biggest nightmare was to have to fight on two fronts. A Japanese campaign against the Soviets would have flipped that nightmare of a two front war around on the USSR instead. Remember how close that war came; the German Army got within 8km or 5 miles of Moscow. If they had faced even slightly diminished Soviet forces along the way, their campaign would have turned out very differently. Especially without the millions of US and Western troops defeating the Germans in Western Europe, Italy, and North Africa, plus without the US giving the USSR billions of dollars worth of guns, ammo, tanks, planes, trucks, jeeps, tractors, trains and locomotives, boxcars, train rail tracks, tires, steel, explosives, aluminum, wire, rubber, gun powder, fuel, food, clothes, blankets, cotton, army boots, radios, and other crucial military and logistical equipment through US Lend Lease, the USSR would have folded entirely, Even if Japan gave the invasion only half-hearted invasion, it still would have diverted massive amounts of Soviet military power toward the east. And industry as well - Stalin relocated much of their military production to the far east, away from Germany’s bombers. That would have put a lot of them within reach of Japan’s bombers instead. It’s a no-brainer. The USSR would have collapsed like a house of cards. When it comes to the battle of Khalkhin Gol. I don’t think you can extrapolate a border skirmish and apply that to the wider war. Especially when it was in 1939 and the Soviet war with the Germans was NOT ongoing at this time. The Japanese considered it a defeat, yes, but when you look at the actual numbers, the Japanese totally outclassed the Red Army by a wide margin. The Japanese went into the battle with only one third to one fourth the manpower the Soviets had (about 20,000 Japanese soldiers to the Soviets 74,000), and only 73 tanks compared to the Soviets 550!, and still suffered fewer casualties (Japanese suffered 18,000 casualties, Soviets about 28,000). By 1941 though, such an engagement would have involved millions of Japanese soldiers, and it would have happened with Operation Kantokuen but because the US did a fuel and oil embargo on Japan and the rising threat of the great sleeping giant known as the United States the Japanese decided to focus their attention on the US instead, so without the US the USSR would have been steamrolled by both Germany and Japan on 2 fronts, and WW2 would have been an absolute decisive German-Japanese victory
The Japanese failure in China was much more due to American and British support for the KMT, the KMT's own flooding of the Yellow River, and American entry into the Pacific war than any strategic or manpower issues of the Empire (besides bringing America into the war to begin with of course). As late as 1944 when Japanese naval supply was shredded by the US, Ichi-Go saw significant territorial gains by the Japanese and encirclements of large numbers of Chinese troops, so they were not so weak against China as you present them in your video.
You shouldv'e made the scenario where they either never where at war with China or they made a Peace deal. Otherwise it isn't realistic. Even Japan knew very well that invading the USSR while fighting China would destroy them in Long term.
What about the resources that the US gave to the Soviet Union like railway infrastructure and food for their troops other stuff they gave them? Also I was under the impression that there was more information specifically that Stalin had a guy over in Siberia watching the Japanese things to tell him whether or not he could take troops from Asia to Europe and for some of these troops they were in our history in the Battle of Stalingrad and other battles over in Europe so some divisions of troops from the Asia would be missing in this scenario I heard this from a couple of sources but I keep getting conflicted stuff about this so I might be wrong about this detail.
nice
for japan to invade soviets, the main reason they DIDNT invade them was because of a former loss in the mongols(hal-hin-gol), which the soviets obliterated, which made japan overestimate soviets a bit.
At this point, I'd think the only way for this to be successful is for Japan to just outright not invade China with the Marco Polo bridge incident. Going after the Chinese and Soviets simultaneously is a completely insane prospect.
but the Soviets fighting both the Germans and Japanese simultaneously is also an insane concept, if it wasnt for the US the USSR would have been steamrolled
But being tied down with China also reduces Japan's impact in such a war. They can't really afford to bring all of their might against the Soviet borders like Germany did.
@@gengarzilla1685 Japan only ever had 1 million soldiers in China out of their 7.9 million soldiers total (9 million if you count pro Japanese collaborators) Japan still had more than enough manpower to crush the USSR from the far east while Germany steamrolls the USSR from the west at the same time, thanks to the US defeating the Japanese in the Pacific, plus the Lend Lease the US gave to the USSR, plus the US and Western allies defeating the Germans in Western Europe, Italy, and North Africa, we bailed the USSR out of WW2 and the US saved China from Japan as well
I think even in this scenario that the British would be courteous enough to gather their forces on Singapore so they can surrender them all at once to a numerically inferior opponent.
New subscriber 🤝
Nice
A Japanese offensive in Siberia would be 20k Japanese troops marching around in the forest and then freezing to death
The Japanese wouldnt survive a week attacking the Swiss
@@ezrajrperida100 I don't think anyone would have an easy time against the swiss though
@@paxtoncargill4661 I give the entire Japanese population 7 weeks, 3 days, 8 hours, 27 minutes, 49 seconds, at best. Given the entire Japanese population collaborated an attack on the Swiss fortress at 1944, I calculated it within the weeks using statistics of the 1944 Japanese population, their strategy, mapped the fortresses of the Swiss, where the best attack may come, the Swiss response, and ultimately their downfall on July 19 1944.
What I find interesting is what if the Japanese stopped expanding into China after seizing Manchuria and instead waited until 1941 to attack the Soviet Union together with Germany and trought that focusing the entire Japanese Manchurian war effort onto conquering Siberia.
What If the Japanese didn't invade China though? And instead focused on destabilising it, and just kept building up, and when Germany strikes the USSR the Japanese army then strikes them as well?