Exclusive: Tesla Pilot 4680 Battery Factory is Shutting Down!
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 พ.ค. 2024
- According to one of my sources, Tesla’s Kato Road 4680 battery factory will be temporarily shutting down for 3 months beginning in November. Why would Tesla do this? Don’t worry, I believe that this is actually good news.
Joe Tegtmeyer on Twitter: / joetegtmeyer
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Babe, wake up. Cleanerwatt posted.
Every time Tesla shuts something down, it's good news because it's a sign of improvements coming.
So very true.
Or more vaporware. Which is the typical.
@@CobaltLobster Alright. I'll bite. Name your vaporware.
Yeah like best selling vehicle on the planet.@@CobaltLobster
@@Steven-rr9qs Who needs to name anything?! One need not look further than almost anything Musk has ever put his name on or claimed to have done in order to find good vaporware examples.
If they are only making 1st generation cells at Kato rd pilot plant (and I am not totally convinced) rather than shut down and instal 2nd generation equipment would it not make more sense to go strait to 3rd generation cells.
But will the result be a significant advancement on CATL/BYD/LFP - and as affordable……?.
It’s been years waiting and everything has moved on big time.
My first thought when I heard about this was that they are gonna move to prismatic LFP or LMFP for the standard range MY. The 4680 has a poor changing curve that many are unhappy with. There are several reasons to do this: cost, don’t use cobalt or nickel, better fire safety, longer cycle life, better charge curve than 4680. I’m just basing this on where they went with the M3 RWD. Time will tell.
I agree I think LFP but more importantly LMFP batteries with the increased energy density is the way to go. My next EV I want to be able to charge to 100%.
The Model Y RWD made in Berlin has a LFP battery made by BYD called Blade battery.
The battery can be charged up to 100 % everyday, has a very good charging curve but WLTP range is only 455 km.
This project is tapered integration enabling Tesla to have an iron in the battery fire in order to leverage relationships with other players like CATL. That's it's key purpose. To master the tech and stay at leading edge. I do not see batteries being meaningfully integrated. It will remain an active partnership influenced by Tesla's battery development and manufacturing experience.
It's not good news for people who got stuck with 4680 standard models before they were put on the open market. They were sold only to dealers and the dealers didn't inform those getting the unadvertised standard models when they thought they were getting long range models! Tesla is screwing those people over twice!
I think you need to double the annual rate based on the June battery total. It needs to be greater than the May total.
"Annual rate" for batteries can be expressed in "cells" or "GWh" leaving the factory.
.
The ultimate aim of the 4680 is to achieve *both* "machine gun" cell production with high kW per cell.
They've been perfecting technique.
Next step, chemistry to start increasing the cell capacity and possibly the C rate.
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The upgraded Kato Road will be the factory template upgrade for Nevada, where the combination should provide excellent cells for the Semi factory.
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It's going to be more than adequate, but still increasing steadily
If you see Cybertruck production more like 5000 a month; it means rejects are still high and they are losing money on every cybertruck the put out. In last years stockholder meeting; Tesla promised Deutche Bank to have the cybertruck in production; you also have public expectations set as a result after much delay mostly due to production 4680 problems. They are going to meet those promisses come hell or high water because they must even at a signficant loss per vehicle.
Why would Tesla build another Gen 2...its a pilot facility? Could be a 3rd gen! Tesla typically doesn't keep making things that are just "good"!
Exactly what I wanted to point out as well!
Yep, you beat me to it too. They really need to up the ante with 4680, as it's been slow going so far...
First alarming thing to note is you say the new gigatexas batteries are only 10% more energy dense; this is not in spec with the 4680 claims of 16%. It sounds like in order to improve the reject rate which has been unacceptably high; they have changed the design of the 4680 without a public announcement. This will result in lower performance Cybertruck, Semi, and new Roadster once they do get an acceptable reject rate. If cybertruck is not produced in 20,000 a month it means rejects are still unacceptable at either plant.
TeSemi is equipped with 2170 cells
Good news indeed! Thanks for the update!
3 Months is a long time. Curious.
1,600,000 seems to be an error. Obviously the number should be more than 4 times the weekly number, like all the other monthly numbers are. So, ~3,000,000/month?
It may be that they're shutting down the pilot plant because the specs on the 1st gen batteries aren't good enough with the 2nd gen batteries now around. It may be that the pilot factory just isn't efficient enough (and was never intended to be) to operate profitably - even with new equipment.
It was through June 16th.
They removed the ability to order the 4680 SR model Y off the website
I think 4680 cell production has been shut down for the last couple of months at Austin. I base this on no vapor coming from the roof vents in a long time and many truck loads of new equipment being delivered there. I think the lines are being upgraded.
NO,... no they didn't stop shooting.....they're RELOADING!
2:20 chart correction; 2,800,000/monthly total for June? Enjoyed the video, thank you.
Since more engagement helps you!
What I fantasize about 4680s is that making dry electro processes for advanced LFP chemistry batteries has been worked out & the slated for some future time 4680 inhouse LFP+ batteries will ramp up quickly and prove to be solid move.
If we're going that route, why not speculate on the possibility of them combining the dry process with CATL M3P chemistry? Imagine an arrangement where they combine and swap technology?
@@rogerstarkey5390OK! Let's play!
Well, I think that is the plan all along. Build in flexibility-adaptability from the start. Only it was more amorphous adaptable at first. No one knew how things would come together in detail until doing it! Just learning how to make better calls along the way. The Missions helps guide.
At least that's how I approach that.
I think it is time to up the LFP game all around.
Tesla ought be working with dry processings of LFP based chemistries. Playing with LFPs generally. There's apparently room to grow the tech, yet. They ought have a few research based stations. (and generally, not just for batteries). That much of Berlin & China ought be churning. Prioritize construction of battery facilities in Mexico. Start looking for that team & train them in with the others at the current locations. 24/7 calm professional mission driven atmosphere.
In the future the sweetspot would be able to transition between chemistries, maybe formfactors too, more or less on the fly responding to need and the conditions. To different packs for sure, maybe even other than 4680? If that is found to have advantage.
Will 4680s formfactor be optimal for aviation, marine, heavy equipment use? Probably. We won't really know until we get there! What of various storage uses? Will storage go sodium? WIll sodium have a better cell formfactor? Where are we with sodium, why?
AND tell me, is anyone working on a minituration of the processes in working with battery chemistries, streamline it so it can be worked on in microgravity? Brought out to the ISS or on an orbital extended Starship mission? Clearly EVERY part of the process is impacted by gravity in terms of how the chemical and physical bounds are made. Heck the mixing process itself my create unique features, comprise a new amalgam, a new alloy.
We so need a foundry & metallurgy and materials lab in microgravity. What new LI alloys are there to discover?
SpaceZ ought to focus on ORBITAL Starships, holding off on Reentry variants. Being simpler and less wasteful is upside. Even this first one. I'd put an Orbital Variant, which will be the future workhorse Variant, send on up 1st, fill it with water & sensors, set up to be useful latter. Put it into a useful safe orbit and get to it later. Don't Drown Them!
Wow. It really pisses me off they would drown them. Guess I'll try doing something about that.
The future? We'll work all that out on the fly then, like we are now.
Anyone?
It’s because Tesla needs to save ALL 4680s for Cybertruck. The SR Model Y was just to test them. There is no need for a SR Model Y.
The SR AWD Model Y used Gen 1 cells, the Cybertruck will use Gen 2 cells. They are not saving gen 1 cells from Kato Rd for the Cybertruck.
@@Cleanerwatt At production levels of 10 Million in a few months, that doesn't sound like a lot. I assumed Model Y was using BYD and CATL batteries (and likely Panasonic and LG Chem were in the mix a while back). Am I wrong?
@@Cleanerwattwe don’t know that the AWD continued to use gen 1 vs gen 2 cells or if it had moved to gen 2 as well ahead of cubertruck. The reveal of gen 2 cells only happened because it was mentioned in the earnings call. If they started using gen 2 cells in the Y AWD we wouldn’t know as Tesla almost never announces these under the hood incremental improvements to their vehicles. Almost certainly the 4680 Model Y was being used as a test mule for cyber truck 4680 performance and with the imminent release of the cyber truck they just don’t need the Y 4680 anymore
@@jefflittle8913I don't think Tesla uses LG chem batteries since Teslas aren't burning down all over the planet like every other car with LG batteries.
Nice work)
Gen 1 ... Gen 2 machines? sigh. In older updates they've said that they're on the 5th ... 6th... 7th version of the battery assembly lines. It's a continuous process. And we saw the gen 2 battery cells only shortly after they started 4680 production. They've just started calling them cyber cells.
It's a simple thing folks. Tesla will need all the 4680 cells they can produce as cyber truck will need them for a long time. They will have no good use for the less dense early model 1 4680s so they need to produce the better cells that they also have higher production rates. Who would produce cells at a lower rate that cost more per cell than produce new and better cells that cost less? Tesla's restraint in cyber truck will be batteries if they are to use the 4680 cells.
Your June monthly estimate appears to be only for 16 days - the monthly ramping rate was probably closer to 3 million.
This estimate was done in June before the month was over.
One obvious question: why build more 4680 production lines in Freemont, instead of expanding Austin further? They can supplement Austin and Mexico in the short-term, but it only makes sense long-term to use them in Freemont. So is Freemont going to be producing a vehicle that will use them? The Roadster comes to mind, but it may not consume enough 4680 cells. Maybe Roadster+Compact might do the trick. They would have to shut down Model S production to make room, probably makes sense once it's no longer the flagship model.
Mexico is on hold. Texas is going to make the Model 2. I expect Fremont to make all S,3,x,y going forward
Why Fremont?
If that's their test facility for "the machine that builds the machine" they'll be testing the latest developments, combining them and testing ready for Nevada to come on line with an upgraded cell for the Semi.
Both Nevada factories ready ±Q2-3 next year.
Then you'll see a lighter truck with more energy ready for volume production.
Thanks!
nice reporting thank you
🙋♂️JON ,MAYBE GEN 3 🤗👍💚💚💚
Makes sense.
@@whowhy9023THANKS 🤗 time will tell
Makes sense.
Do the Gen 2 4680 cells (along with some comparable M3 Highland efficiency improvements) have the energy to be used in the Long Range Model Y (330 miles)? Maybe they won't need to offer the Model Y Standard Range if Gen 2 does 330 miles. Then 330 mile range Model Y can be either 2170 & 4680 cells. The regular buyer won't know the difference.
The short range of the Model Y with 4680 cells is because they did not fill the pack to maximum, only about 80%. There is room for more cells. Also they did not implement the latest silicon enriched anode, which should result in about another 10% range improvement. The very low production rate of the cells is the reason for only offering them in the shortest range model.
Texas 4680 will be Cybercells, for the truck until the cathode building is complete and until Fremont starts producing the *next* gen cell with upgraded chemistry.
That will then be produced in Kato Road, Texas and Nevada.
Then, assuming it's successful, we can expect changes in 2170 production.
If the 4680 factories can churn out more GWh from a small factory, more cheaply, there's not much point in continuing with 2170.
Do you think ALL of the Texas Model Ys will have 4680s in them after production upgrades are done vs the long range with 2170s that they have been doing in Texas so far?
@@brianjohnson2650 That was the original plan. But things did not go well, and years later they are still trying to get 4680 production up to speed. as Roger says, if all goes well all North American Tesla vehicles will switch to 4680.
With the way LFP and LFMP batteries are the future, I am not sure if the 4680 form factor is the future of the Tesla. It doesn't seem to fit the LFP form factor currently with the rectangular shaped battery pack blades.
LFP is not the future. People really to STFU about it. It's a stopgap chemistry used for low range vehicles. It's not, nor will it ever be the future, except maybe for economy EVs.
2 points
1) As you said yourself, "4680" is a "form factor".
"LFP / LMFP" is a chemistry.
The trick (if possible) is to combine the production methods, small factory/ high output of 4680 with the *various* chemistries.
The best of all worlds.
.
2) To some extent "LFP/ LMFP" have been superceded by the CATL M3P chemistry. (no, it's not LMFP).
If THAT can be used.... Big step forward.
.
The same applies with Sodium ion.
If that could be matched with 4680, you have rapid bulk production of *very cheap* cells for storage and possibly public transport vehicles.
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If the Iron based cells can't adapt to 4680, that form factor will remain relevant purely because the GWH from the compact factories will be phenomenal.
Fewer cells for smaller higher output packs will still be required.
4680 form factor was for containment of runaway thermal reactions, which aren't necessary for LFP. So 4680 isn't necessarily the way to go in the future.
To Charge a Fleet of Truck Batteries requires MORE POWER THAN IS ON THE CURRENT POWER GRIDS. That is only One Fleet of trucks of small numbers so you see if you are Honest reasonable EV conversion for Trucks or Even all cars and Tucks is Irrational and Totally IMPOSSIBLE without MASSIVE improvements in Battery technology.
You flipped the last two rows of the monthly total on the chart at 2:45 into the video.. should be 2.4 Million per month in mid June
Perhaps they should do a "leapfrog" method and start on another newer 4680 3.0 type battery. 7:30 but then, that was just mentioned... 😬
The glass is half full
And I haven’t had a sip!
I use want to see 4680 cells on the open market.
There is lots of fun thing we can do with bigger and stronger cells.
If you mean *Tesla* dry cathode tabless 4680, don't hold your breath.
"Half way house" 4680 from others? Possibly in 2024.
However.
That depends on how much collaboration there has been with Tesla and to what extent Tesla will want those cells.
@@rogerstarkey5390 I do not care from what manufacturer. And from as far as I understand tesla cells are not available on the open market. At least I have never seen anyone selling them regularly besides some broken up from packs.
But I hope they will be tabless at least. I want the extra sustained max amp capabilities.
I want them for among other things for more powerful direct drive flashlight builds.
continuous methodological improvemnet.
June..... 2,800,000
The fundamental support of Tesla is the production capacity of 4680. However, I was worried that this would still be difficult and the process would be difficult. I was a little relieved by your latest information, but mass production of high-performance batteries is difficult, so I don't think we can let our guard down. I'll be waiting for progress updates after that.
What would they do with the old equipment ( barely used).?
Sounds to me this is BS.
Wouldn't it make more sense to build new capacity elsewhere on next generation battery and then upgrade?
3 months of not making batterys tells me they have more batteries than they can sell the cars.
Might want to check facts before making a video like this. The 4680 cell hasn't panned out like Tesla had hoped, which is obvious from its capacity factor but is cheaper to make, per-Wh, and appears in only 1 Tesla: Model Y standard range from Texas. Will be interesting to see what happens with battery cells, for now, the 2170 is the best cell.
According to my Casio calculator, 700k weekly translates to 2.8M monthly. Not sure how you got 1.6M
Yup, maybe he caught that after he uploaded it but it was not worth taking down, fixing & re-uploading.
3 months? Ripe for 2024.
2:41 John, you have several errors in your table!
If Giga Texas got a Gen 2 production equipment... wouldn't it make sense to expect Gen 3 to be installed for testing on Kato road ?
Isn't a 3-month shutdown a bit long (for Tesla) to just swap production lines with something they've already worked out? It might very well be the next generation in the works.
Do you think they might be moving to 4680 Duracell with the copper top ?
They are the best for Cyber Bunny Bots
Haha...
This was actually a cool click bait
So Texas is building 4680 batteries, and at Kato Rd. But Kato has to shut down to retool. Soooo, it is obvious Tesla needs a lot more factories. A lot more.
No
It's "obvious" that just as with the car factories, Tesla is in the prototyping phase of the factories.
This looks like a significant indication that they may have decided on the "Mark 1 *production* factory" in terms of the mechanical process.
It also indicates that Texas is working well enough to rely on.
Next phase, chemistry upgrades, with more silicon(?).
I imagine we'll see the Kato factory open in January, working towards the next iteration, the *SEMI* cell, ready for the Nevada factory upgrade in Q2/Q3.
A Semi with a 320Wh/kg 4680 cell?
Should be interesting?
@@rogerstarkey5390 Should be interesting. As a Cybertruck reservation holder for the 500 mile Tri Motor in November 2019, now 4 years later, what will the range be? Will the 4680 hold the Cybertruck back?
Assuming real customers won't be getting CTs until say Fall of 2024, that will be 5 years. How much range has been added to Tesla EVs in 5 years? Should they toss the 4680 aside and just go to Gen 3?
All good questions, which no one will answer any time soon. We don't even know CT price yet.
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 To me price is not going to be as important as range. If it is $79,900 and it has 500 miles of range, I am all in. If it is $79,000 but only has 350 miles of range, it will be a little deflating (I will be in, just not as enthusiastic).
Maybe switching to sodium or new lithium chemistry batteries?
Tesla needs at least 5th gen batteries now. The 4680 is so far not worth it. They are less power dense, heavier and cost the consumer more. The numbers don’t lie. There only upside at the moment is the structural battery pack. That’s it. Structural battery packs are non serviceable. So when there is an issue with that pack at 80,000 miles. Get ready for a complete tear down of your vehicle and a hearty bill.
Surely not first?
Not the first, but the longest by far! According to my source the longest before was like 5 weeks. This is a major shutdown for more than just maintenance.
@@Cleanerwatt complete redesign and or retool? Or A total rip out and re installation of most everything equipment wise?
I clicked thinking the 4680 was 🌵
Every time Tesla shuts down a battery plant, children in Chile and China rejoice, for Lord Musk has effectively added 10 years to their life expectancy.
I click thinking the 4680 was 🌵
What do you mean ? (English is not m'y first language)
@@pauld3327 in English saying something is cactus means it is broken beyond repair.
@@turrafirmaguitarchannel Thank you 👍
Every few days another penny drops....
That’s a dollar cost average approach to packing a big bag of knowledge.
Game over for Tesla!
The title doesn't include the word "temporarily" 💩
Click bait title. Bad
Feel bad for those who bought one of these Texas cars
Don’t feel bad, Owners are not regretting😂
V3 cells being developed maybe?
Go 3rd gen 4680!
+10% capacity? Thats still lightyears from what was told 3 years ago and that only issue was ramping up production, chemistry was all sorted. And then it showed that nothing could be further from the truth and honestly only reason why they make the 4680 form today must be due to stocks pleasing. Kind of like FSD, hovering Roadster (or just the roadster), and Vision being usable in anything but lab-perfect weather. Nothing but marketing-BS from start to end.
This battery is obsolete. Simply not good.
I think it’s because they have to strip mine coal to charge the batteries.
Only people Buying a Tesla is Tesla/
And Jim Chanos or Gordon Johnson don't believe that Tesla makes their own batteries? And these guys are supposedly technical "analysts"? I don't think so. This indicates why Gordon Johnson is one of the lowest rated "analysts" on tip ranks. Jim Chanos just likes to lose money betting against Tesla, apparently.
Graph at 2:40 is confusing, 1.6m/month is not really the whole month, only half right
Thanks!
Thanks for the support!