Ukraine War Update ANOTHER BUMPER NEWS (20240425b): Military Aid News

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 พ.ค. 2024
  • Here is today's UWU NEWS giving you all the nuggets you need to add to your understanding of events.
    First news video for today: • Ukraine War Update NEW...
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    Please check out this excellent website that compiles useful inks concerning reporting of the war:
    www.heroyam.org/slava_ukraini
    First news video of the day: • Ukraine War Update NEW...
    Discord: / discord
    Russian losses open-source data set (from Del):
    onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?r...
    UA Supporter merch: uasupporter.com/atp
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    Johnny Pearce books: amzn.to/3vv5ZSF
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    _____
    0:00 Start
    0:10 Mil Aid
    26:25 UK
    33:30 Russian proudction
    Geopol
    _____
    Maps often used:
    JMSP: www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mi...
    Andrew Perpetua's Map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com/
    Blog/column: onlysky.media/jpearce/
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ความคิดเห็น • 231

  • @michelemarr76
    @michelemarr76 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +23

    Ukraine deserves to have whatever it needs to win. Period! Thank you, Jonathon!💪🇺🇦💪

  • @Esselle1
    @Esselle1 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +8

    If you listened to Biden's speech none of this should be a surprise. Keeping Ukraine's economy running and addressing civilian needs is important too.

  • @wp9860
    @wp9860 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +11

    @ATPGeo Jonathan, I was up late watching the discussion you had with Jake Broe. I'm an irregular viewer of Jake's blog. Your's I pay more attention to. I found the discussion brilliant, perhaps the most informative I've seen next to any quip by Timothy Snyder. Generally, these kinds of discussions ramble and don't deliver marginal content. But, I found myself hanging on every comment by Jake. The video extended over two hours and was all "meat." If your metric is, "tell me something I don't know," it delivered full marks. Your prepared questions and questions culled from the viewers were excellent. My very best regards for this effort. In addition to the compliments, I offer this feedback on the nature of the content: More of this - high level material and conclusions. I feel that I could binge watch daily war mapping blogs for a month and not be informed as much. There's meaning, and there is data. Meaning is the goal; data to the extent necessary to achieve that goal. Many thanks, and again, excellent job.

    • @ATPGeo
      @ATPGeo  12 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Thank you so much for this.

  • @richthedude-6sf3uk6w
    @richthedude-6sf3uk6w 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +28

    Good morning JP and everyone. Thanx Jonathan for your dedication and hard work . Some times the truth hurts but we still need to know. Keep speaking your mind because YOUR opinion matters.

    • @1978rrf
      @1978rrf 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Opinions are like a holes. Everyone has one and they stink. This guy just wants to complain about everything and anything. Some aid is better than no aid. This guy probably beats his wife is she burns his toast 😂😂

  • @sherrillwhately7586
    @sherrillwhately7586 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +18

    My question was: If Taurus are so important, why has Germany stopped production?

    • @xerolad4086
      @xerolad4086 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      If they make more, imagine the pressure on Germany to donate some.

    • @sherrillwhately7586
      @sherrillwhately7586 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      @@xerolad4086 Then they should.

    • @alexanderhaag8247
      @alexanderhaag8247 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      If a car is important for you, you buy a car. Not two, not three or even more.

    • @yamaneko-ex8fy
      @yamaneko-ex8fy 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      As far as I know the company is not allowed to "overproduce", which means there is only a certain amount to keep in storage. Chancellor Scholz lied saying it would not be possible to produce more, which a couple of hours later the ceo of the company corrected by saying they could start producing the following day. They just need the order. The problem with the Taurus is Scholz himself, whereas the German MoD as well as many other German lawmakers want Taurus to be given to Ukraine. Why Scholz is dragging his feet we don´t really know as he came up with so many different excuses, which were all proven to not be accurate or even wrong. Maybe he is hiding behind the US; so if long-range ATACMS are coming, hopefully Taurus would be sent to Ukraine as well.

    • @surpriseitsus9622
      @surpriseitsus9622 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Good question, and it's nothing like a car. It's getting windy 🏜 ❤🤗

  • @LadaGaga93
    @LadaGaga93 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +16

    Good morning JP and team. I love me some Bumper News!

  • @VatniksAreFascists
    @VatniksAreFascists 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +10

    Criminally underrated channel. A single most well-documented archive of the war. Thank you mr. Pearce, and I cannot thank you enough.

    • @sk.43821
      @sk.43821 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Definitely.

  • @anselmdanker9519
    @anselmdanker9519 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +15

    Good morning Jonathan and ATP team.
    Have a great day 😊

  • @sspacegunn21
    @sspacegunn21 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +10

    Always a top report, ty❤

  • @jeaniewilliams3274
    @jeaniewilliams3274 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +11

    Our politicians think we can not or do not read, nor do we understand what we hear.

    • @axelpro09
      @axelpro09 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Because WE NEED PUT PRESSURE ON POLITICS. WITH IMMIGRANTS PROTESTERS, POLITICS WORK FAST For SID GAZA

  • @tommarney1561
    @tommarney1561 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +12

    Hello, team! 🫡

  • @OliverBootle1
    @OliverBootle1 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    What has Spain done to help Ukraine? What has Italy done? Give them a Patriot.

  • @donseyfried3477
    @donseyfried3477 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +10

    Thanks JP.

  • @Finnishguy777
    @Finnishguy777 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    Hi team, I hope everyone is having a good day, sorry I haven't been seen for a couple of days but I bought a new processor and motherboard and it took a while to get the pc working again as it should, thank you Jonathan.

    • @surpriseitsus9622
      @surpriseitsus9622 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Hi and welcome back ❤

    • @Finnishguy777
      @Finnishguy777 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@surpriseitsus9622 Hi Lynn thank you

  • @sk.43821
    @sk.43821 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    Your assessment regarding Taurus is absolutely correct. Those cruise missiles are considered strategic.
    In the same interview by Boris Pistorius, he clearly stated he will not talk about Taurus. The decision is political and relates to state security. Quick and strict halt to any attempt of discussion on this topic.
    #doublespaceforgoodukrainianpronunciation

  • @javieralvarez5872
    @javieralvarez5872 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    @ATPGeo: IMHO the thread from Jack Detsch is misleading. To my understanding, his analysis compares the production/procurement of 155mm/122mm artillery shells from US and EU against the russian ammo production of all calibers instead of the russian production of 152mm/122mm ammo as mentioned in the CSIS report. On the other hand, the combined Czechia and Estonia initiatives aims to supply 2.5 million (155mm&122mm) artillery shells to Ukraine. Assuming these initiatives are fully funded by EU and the recent approved military US aid (US$ 13.8B USAI funds available) then Ukraine will have a fire ratio of ~6900 rounds per day for the coming 12 months, not ~2500 round per day. Assuming US can provide extra 1 million artillery shells from their stocks, then the fire ratio increases to ~9700 round per day. Finally, I think that there is/will be a parity (superiority?) of artillery shells that might enable counteroffensive operation (by end of this summer? beginning of autumn?). Thanks JP for the video! Slava Ukraini!

  • @quasar6959
    @quasar6959 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Thank you, Jonathan for part two 👍👍👍

  • @MelanieReed-oz3wz
    @MelanieReed-oz3wz 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Thank you for all the detailed information. ❤️

  • @bigolboomerbelly4348
    @bigolboomerbelly4348 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks UK 🇬🇧 for all the help.

  • @johnhare595
    @johnhare595 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    Afternoon JP Greetings troops 👍😊

  • @KathysGuess
    @KathysGuess 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +5

    Jonathan, the way you describe aid from USA is true about every country donating equipment to Ukraine. It’s not just 🇺🇸that’s drawing down inventory of old equipment to send to Ukraine and replenishing stockpiles with new equipment and calling it donating to Ukraine. With the exception of Estonian, Denmark, etc that are clearing inventories of all equipment for the ongoing war not a future war.
    Not sure that came out right but essentially small countries that have little inventory are sending newer equipment than their larger counterparts that have large older stockpiles that will be upgraded to newer better equipment.

    • @drychaf
      @drychaf 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      He's mentioned this over the years.

  • @greenhighlander7
    @greenhighlander7 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +10

    👋

  • @andrewplowman1002
    @andrewplowman1002 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Thank you

  • @MrFalconos
    @MrFalconos 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    I belive that being transparent is not a good tatic even the people wanting to know everything because it is important to keep the russian wondering what Ukraine is getting.

  • @cloraformsgood5340
    @cloraformsgood5340 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    The Taurus issue . I heard Sholze mention about the nuclear deterrent a little while back and was unaware it wasn't widespread news, it's the reason I stopped going on about Sholze and Taurus. It makes perfect sense to me.
    Germany are a vital part of Ukrainian defence and offensive power at the moment, as well as leading the way in it's rhetoric.

  • @simonball2731
    @simonball2731 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    Sullivan even looks Russian. First time I have seen his face.

  • @simtyful
    @simtyful 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Epic work JP

  • @user-rv4ob4tg9x
    @user-rv4ob4tg9x 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    At least someone in Europe might be providing material “on the quiet”. It can’t be helping the effort to broadcast itemized lists of what’s being transferred.

  • @harveybrown37
    @harveybrown37 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    I would hope Nations are doing some things by the quiet. The advantage of this in War is vital -e.g. see the Enigma machine

  • @yamaneko-ex8fy
    @yamaneko-ex8fy 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you Jonathan.

  • @Sophiedorian0535
    @Sophiedorian0535 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Hi Jonathan. Thank you for mentioning my homework on Taurus. The Taurus is not only a bunker-buster (which SCALP and Storm Shadow are not), but its evasive manoeuvring capability seems to be it's greatest strength. In other words: if Storm Shadow can do an evasive waltz, Taurus can do the Capoeira. Of course it can't be deployed against Russian ship-borne and sub-borne nuclear launch platforms, but those are in the hands of the Russian Military, whereas the static emplacements are being controlled by the FSB. The Russian Military has a history of reluctance with regard to using nukes, whereas the KGB (now FSB) has a history of the contrary. In other words: the path leading from Putin's order to launch to the battery commander's launch button is the shortest inside the FSB controlled networks.
    During WW2, the V2 rockets were controlled entirely by the SS. And for the SS , unlike for the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe, a simple 'Führerbefehl' was enough by way of getting wholesale carnage started.

    • @harold22774
      @harold22774 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      i copied this from continental defence as you stated that storm shadow was not a bunker buster Comparing Taurus and Storm Shadow Missiles
      The German Taurus missile and the British Storm Shadow missile are both cruise missiles tailored for aerial launch, conceived to infiltrate adversary air defenses and engage high-priority targets. These munitions share a payload capability of 500 kg and an operational reach extending beyond 500 km.
      Yet, critical distinctions set these missiles apart. The Taurus missile is optimized for nap-of-the-earth flight trajectories, leveraging low altitudes to evade detection, whereas the Storm Shadow missile adopts elevated altitudes to evade hostile air defense systems.
      In terms of guidance systems, the Taurus missile employs a terrain-following mechanism for navigation, while the Storm Shadow missile integrates a blend of GPS and inertial navigation systems.
      Further divergence lies in their carrier platforms: the Taurus missile finds its host in the German Tornado fighter-bomber, whereas the Storm Shadow missile boasts compatibility with diverse British and French aircraft, encompassing the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Dassault Rafale.

    • @Sophiedorian0535
      @Sophiedorian0535 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@harold22774 Apparently, our oldest sources seem to agree. The Tornado is one of two of Taurus's oldest platforms. The other one is the DDR legacy Mig-29.
      Germany hasn't sent any of its DDR legacy Migs to Ukraine. For good reason, I suspect.
      You didn't elaborate on the bunker-busting capability. Taurus is fitted with a Panzerspitz.
      It can therefore fulfil the role of the WW2 British 'Tallboy' bomb. It wouldn't be difficult to hard-nose a Storm Shadow in the same way, but that would mean reducing the explosive charge by half.

    • @harold22774
      @harold22774 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@Sophiedorian0535 i found this , its not overly specific but more general
      The Storm Shadow's BROACH warhead features an initial penetrating charge to clear soil or enter a bunker, then a variable delay fuze to control detonation of the main warhead. Intended targets are command, control and communications centres; airfields; ports and power stations; ammunition management and storage facilities; surface ships and submarines in port; bridges and other high value strategic targets.

    • @Sophiedorian0535
      @Sophiedorian0535 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@harold22774 Storm Shadow has been designed as a logistics disruptor, so you are absolutely right. But Taurus has been designed as a military infrastructure destroyer. Like the Tallboy and the Grand Slam were in WW2. The first variant was deployed against static V2 rocket bunkers in North-West France. Like 'La Coupole'. The latter variant was deployed against reinforced concrete U-boat pens, near the end of WW2.
      BROACH blows its way in. Panzerspitze burrow their way in. Taurus can do both.
      That is why it was suggested as a better alternative to Storm Shadow, as a means to destroy the Kerch bridge. It would have no trouble destroying the 'island-in-the-middle' section of the bridge, down to its foundations.

    • @harold22774
      @harold22774 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@Sophiedorian0535 i remember watching the movie ...the dam busters , it was Barnes Wallis who designed the bouncing bomb and the tallboy/grand slam .britain had quite a few boffins like Barnes that came up with some clever designs like the Bailey bridge and Hobarts funnies as they were called

  • @KathysGuess
    @KathysGuess 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    The chart showing ammunition production by manufacturers demonstrates how ineffective the ramp up in production is & has been.
    The only possible reason for this anemic response is an unwillingness of Countries, Defense Departments to put up the cash! Manufacturers respond to one thing and only one thing “Upfront Cash Adequate to cover set up AND dismantling if demand ceases” These are standard contract agreements within the defense industry. Apparently another symptom of Ending Cold War apathy, peace dividend blow back?
    Even the Cold War Contract Negotiators have died ?
    Devining Defense Contracts are a skill set no longer understood or appreciated.
    This is another efing malaise Ukrainians are paying for.
    It isn’t rocket science that Defense Contractors get paid for the entire defense cycle including the inevitable End of the War…

  • @axelpro09
    @axelpro09 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    I ASK TO CRITICISE ITALY MOORE STRONG FROM ALL OF YOU

    • @axelpro09
      @axelpro09 11 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I m Italian lol

  • @richardbennett8522
    @richardbennett8522 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Cheers Jonathan for Part two today👍👍

    • @mike4480
      @mike4480 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      …Hi Richard , Thanks Johnathan and the Team for the update … 💙💛💙

  • @angel19785
    @angel19785 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    First

  • @bccom3684
    @bccom3684 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Great stream yesterday, and as always great updates!

  • @I-have-a-brain_and-use-it
    @I-have-a-brain_and-use-it 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    I think you are on the money with the Tarus
    The last thing any government would want is to have their absolute best weapon used and possibly have counter measures worked out well before you need to use them .
    People fixate about things that they have little understanding about .
    As Ukraine has now worked out how to convert small light aircraft into drones, better than Tarus would be the equivalent value in obsolete , deregistered light aircraft as they seem to be able to slip through russian air space a lot better then any cruise missiles .

  • @user-lr4fq4ju4r
    @user-lr4fq4ju4r 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    I would have to think that from people who left Russia and those lost in the war they are missing specialists. Just certain people you would not think had any real significance but perform a task that only a few people were able to do.

    • @highendservicesbarrieont8347
      @highendservicesbarrieont8347 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Yes...every job is important...simple maintenance is vital on any asset....lose the janitors and a school becomes unusable in a week....

  • @markusleboschka6878
    @markusleboschka6878 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Just checked, in 1917 Britain produced 50 MILLION ARTILLERY SHELLS ! I wonder why today we struggle with one million per year. I assume they were simpler, but still I'm surprised as the amount of raw material for the production should still be comparable.

    • @andrewbielecki6154
      @andrewbielecki6154 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      50 million would be a game changer … we’d have to be on a war footing and divert the population to making military equipment, to get anywhere close ever again.

    • @cloraformsgood5340
      @cloraformsgood5340 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      ​@@andrewbielecki6154exactly, the whole population was at war and doing it's part .

    • @sababugs1125
      @sababugs1125 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I mean the entire country was working on that , they were melting down donkeys to make explosives

    • @markusleboschka6878
      @markusleboschka6878 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@sababugs1125 True. But they no robots, automatisation, computers, and high tech stuff - it was all manual work. We don't need that much, but I wonder why there is no will to get to at least one or 2 millions per year. For the new multipolar future they will be needed anyway, and be it as deterrent.

  • @roninrugby9480
    @roninrugby9480 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Definitely an enlightening of the American public is needed regarding taxation.
    When I was younger I asked my mother (a CA) “how many times can the government tax a dollar?”.
    Her response, “As often as they can”.
    I’d think between you, Joe Blogs and Jake, you three could put together a very comprehensive show!
    I’d think that 61b probably translates into an enormous amount of potential dollars being generated (apart from the very obvious geopolitical gains as well!).
    For example. 600 million spent in Mo could be broken down to how it affects the average person.
    New employment means a bigger civic tax base.
    New employment means more money in the local economies.
    You can literally see the knock-on effects to the last nickel being injected into the economy.

    • @davidl.7317
      @davidl.7317 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Not just taxation wise either, the cash boost to the American economy produces more expendable income for multiple peoples.

    • @roninrugby9480
      @roninrugby9480 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      So an arms producer no has to ramp up production.
      A few new employees.
      The company makes more money generating more tax.
      The new employees pay tax now.
      They then spend that money.
      Possibly a new car.
      Possibly a new house.
      Spending at the supermarket.
      The supermarket benefits. Their employees benefit.
      The car plant in America benefits.
      The waiter who serves them benefits as does the owner of the restaurant.
      And yadda, and yadda, and yadda.
      It goes on ad Infinitum.
      Not really a loss for the US economy(?).

  • @mashdown3
    @mashdown3 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Good look at the few clues we do have. But I wouldn't put to much into "you would if you could". It isn't even the tendency, let alone a rule to my observation.

  • @drychaf
    @drychaf 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Thanks again for your analyses.
    This edition borders on a topic I've found puzzling and you might be able to target in a video? There's an article 'Can We Please Stop Comparing Russia’s Economy to Italy’s?' in 'The National Interest' magazine, but this magazine seems to have Russian sympathies, so maybe it's not the best one to reference. I used it as an introduction. It deals with us hearing about Russia's apparently small economy, contrasted with its apparent ability to continue to inflict this horror on Ukraine (my description there) for years to come. The article boils it down to Russia being a producer of 'stuff', compared with most Western nations being enamoured by service industries. Having stuff to sell outweighs services in times of conflict.
    Obviously, there are the massive Soviet stocks/infrastructure and the lack of 'overheads' - funding its own national maintenance - but then there's all the labour shortages, corruption, inefficiencies, etc.
    Seems to be an interesting aspect to try to pin down a bit more.

  • @viandengalacticspaceyards5135
    @viandengalacticspaceyards5135 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    On numbers from Russia.
    Can't confirm it all applies now, but many things seem to remain unchanged since soviet days.
    I knew a woman from East Germany who said it was always announced that "production was 110% of the set goals."
    Once a year, they had to help for potato harvest, and results were counted in truckloads.
    So they unloaded only half the potatoes, and returned to the field....and had '110% of the expected truckloads.'

  • @julilab
    @julilab 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I´m surprised how little #Ireland´s aid to UA is (by % GDP) Their GDP is ~ $ 533 bn/y and their aid does not even add up to $ 500 mio for the past 2 years. VEry disappointing.

  • @I-have-a-brain_and-use-it
    @I-have-a-brain_and-use-it 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    When ATAMS were first used what was reported was the first tranch of 20 ( ? ) would be supplemented by what ever became available as they became replaced by the new PrSM variant. As I read that press release it sounded like it was open ended so the US would be sending them at random times in random numbers .

  • @davinki2885
    @davinki2885 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    The Olympics will close on 11 August. Right after that, the Olympic Air defence can go to Ukraine.

  • @richardnpaul_mob
    @richardnpaul_mob 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I wonder if any of those SeaKings are ones I worked on in the past 😅

  • @sk.43821
    @sk.43821 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    EU countries can certainly appeal to solidarity (Patriots) from Spain and Greece since they get financed a lot through distribution of EU funds each year.

    • @surpriseitsus9622
      @surpriseitsus9622 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Agreed, especially Spain. Good comment

    • @parcomolo256
      @parcomolo256 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Don't pick on Spain - not on this channel. They have a very left-leaning government.

  • @darrencorrigan8505
    @darrencorrigan8505 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Hello again, Jon and Team. Are the missiles ever used on a Russian air base? Because the ATACMS can certainly be used there. Germany should make more Taurus, with different software to avoid detection. A lesser avoidance strategy. You know, every piece of armored equipment should use reactive armor if it doesn't have it already. Does that mean the Russians must expand their production lines or must build new factories? I expect Ukraine can do more with less by now. Once a battle of maneuver is engaged or initiated, cutting off the opponent will become most important. Or must this always be a slugging match with a foreign slogging system?

  • @jameshaas3533
    @jameshaas3533 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Germany largest donor: Maybe, maybe not. It depends on how they account for their packages (replacement vs depreciated value)

  • @martinelzen5127
    @martinelzen5127 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    JP, your vids seem to be getting longer... You don't need to emulate Derek too much you know! ;-)

  • @markusleboschka6878
    @markusleboschka6878 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Interesting story with the Paveway 4. Sounds a bit like 'we use a handy as GPS guidance'.

  • @richardnpaul_mob
    @richardnpaul_mob 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    The way I understood the French aid to Ukraine post was basically they're very green youngsters, having very little flight experience.

  • @viggoholmsen7203
    @viggoholmsen7203 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    10:35 -
    LOL - I thought ATACMS would be part of the last couple of Presidential drawdowns.

  • @FunnyQuailMan
    @FunnyQuailMan 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    One thing about ammunition production, stores & rates of fire, particular with regard to claims of Russian shell production increases. Produce all the ammunition you want, but at a certain point, it doesn't help any further within a given period of time. Exceeding a certain production threshold can provide only shells that are not only excess to need, but once you reach the capacity of the barrels which actually fire them, they become excess to capability for utilization. Russia has lost something like 60% of its pre-war stocks of artillery systems, and so you can only fire a limited number of rounds through the remaining available barrels & tubes, and no more without undue wear on, and a further reduction in the quantity of, existing artillery systems & components. Russian logistical tails are, likewise, under constant strain & attack, limiting the quantity of shells & parts that can actually reach said systems in order to be used. Shells produced in excess of artillery system capacities to fire them & logistical capabilities/capacities to deliver them can only be stored until they can ultimately be used.

  • @markusleboschka6878
    @markusleboschka6878 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I think the drones and Neptunes will be good enough to do damage in russia. I did not hear any complains about Ukraine attacking oil infrastructure either - which is a big step as well. There is a historical precedent with a manager named Teagle who dealt with the 'Nazis to make more money (and he loved their ideas as well) being outed for his 'Nazi-deals by Roosevelt and losing his job in 1942 due to public condemnation resulting from his Nazi-outing. Let's see what happened / will happen with the Chevron story. Teagle was the CEO of the predecessor of Exxon, by the way ...

  • @viggoholmsen7203
    @viggoholmsen7203 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    03:30 -
    Yep ... DoD budgets and ledgers are every CPA's wet dream AND worst nightmare - every $$ counted multiple times in a myriad of ways across innumerable accounts.
    Drilling down thru calculated provisions, depreciations, decommission and externalities must be all fun and games ...
    In the case of assistance for Ukraine, the amounts are both less AND more than most people care to sit down and calculate.

  • @I-have-a-brain_and-use-it
    @I-have-a-brain_and-use-it 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    If russia really could ramp up production to 3.5 Mil shells in less than a year then they would not have needed shells from DRNK
    The 3.5 mil probably includes all shells from 40 mm mortars through to 152 mm rounds ( Could even include 20mm aircraft cannon shells )
    This is not believable unless russia had over 100 factories that had been running at 10% full rate at the beginning of the war .
    AFAIK ( not much ) all russian shells factories date back to the USSR which means they are on par with the manual factories shown in the USA .
    The DRNK uses old manual shell making gear imported from the USSR back in the hey-days of the Korean-USSR alliance
    Modern fully automatic shell factories can not make shells all that fast as you have probably noticed
    Basically it is around 100,000 rounds per forge so unless China has supplied around 25 to 30 new auto forges ( very unlikely ) that 3.8 mil shells P/A is very very rubbery .
    I have noticed that a lot of mass media reports & projections have not been scrutinised by any one with a science / engineering/ technical understanding but are based on "trusted sources " and we all know how good "trusted sources " are .
    Note how slowly the EU is ramping up production and indeed how slow the UK is ramping up production .
    Now I know things are different in autocracies because " as putin says so shall it be done" , but I am talking about the time from ground breaking ceremonies to the time the first shell gets packed onto a pallet . Two years at best .

  • @davinki2885
    @davinki2885 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    If the Taurus issue is about nuclear deterrence, and Taurus missiles can't neutralise Russian nuclear missiles, then the only possibility left is that the Taurus missiles are a conventional deterrence of such a magnitude, that it is enough to keep Russia from attacking. Worth keeping behind hand.

  • @positroll7870
    @positroll7870 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Detsch counts all calibers for Russia but completely ignores anything but 155 for Ukraine.
    Yet Eastern Europe is delivering loads of 122mm (at least a million per year), while western Europe adds plenty of 105mm arti rounds and 120mm mortar rounds.
    ***
    I think Pistorius is off here, too. Sure, they keep some newly produced stuff for units defending the borders vs NATO and China. But that's just refilling positions that were emptied earlier for Ukraine.
    Meanwhile the Russian stuff on the front is getting older and older.

  • @quinnessq
    @quinnessq 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +6

    Taurus as a nuclear deterrent sound ridiculous to me. They are outstripped in range by at least 6 times by most nuclear missles. And those are the short ranged ones.

    • @xerolad4086
      @xerolad4086 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      They are best suited for use against command and control facilities to sow chaos during a russian attack on NATO.

    • @davidl.7317
      @davidl.7317 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Let Germany decide. Other countries can develop similar or better missiles.

  • @alandoherty5237
    @alandoherty5237 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Very informative great video as always thank you

  • @mashdown3
    @mashdown3 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Sullivan. The appeaser plant is a key part of any good bully's team. Just saying.

  • @Birko64
    @Birko64 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    As has probably been said before, Air Defence is necessary but not sufficient and also not either sustainable or an efficient use of resources. The missile delivery systems (planes in the air or on the ground) or the production facilities need to be eliminated, which needs attacks within Russian territory. Russia can otherwise keep lobbing ordnance from within their territory indefinitely and with impunity.

  • @mikaeljansson149
    @mikaeljansson149 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Nice to see some ads in this one :)

  • @stevenphilpott4294
    @stevenphilpott4294 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    IF Russia CAN produce 3million rounds, can they transport it, have they the systems to use the ammo, is the ammo reliable? Is the ammunition only partially assembled?
    Could explain IF there are millions of rounds sat in warehouses.

  • @brotherbuddha89
    @brotherbuddha89 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    The cost calculation evaluating the worth of what aid is sent by the U.S. seems to lack accounting for the cost of maintenance and disposal that the U.S. taxpayer incurs with this stuff if it isn't used.

    • @xerolad4086
      @xerolad4086 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Absolutely true! It costs taxpayers money to store and maintain surplus military equipment. Sending it to Ukraine should make sense, even to fiscal conservatives.

  • @paulyoung4422
    @paulyoung4422 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    China is supplying, North Korea who then supplies Russia.

  • @gl1941
    @gl1941 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I do believe people are just too hype up on the German long-range missiles what the Ukrainian needs from the Germans now is something that would help them on the front line Eurocopter Tiger what the overhead mast gives the aircraft an advantage on the battlefield and also battlefield awareness data sharing with other allied forces I believe Germany has around 40 of these the true number of operational ready is hard to get but the ukrainians only need around 10 for right now

  • @bigolboomerbelly4348
    @bigolboomerbelly4348 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    0b 0del
    Thanks to everyone who supports Ukraine 🇺🇦

  • @geraldray7684
    @geraldray7684 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I think they should be happy getting anything

    • @surpriseitsus9622
      @surpriseitsus9622 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Of course they are, but the US should understand that a lot of this money is being spent right here in the states, as JP explained

    • @parcomolo256
      @parcomolo256 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@surpriseitsus9622 If the Europeans think, that it's highly profitable sending billions of $s worth of military equipment to Ukraine, why aren't they doing more of it themselves? By january 15, 2024 the US had allocated (roughly delivered) $47.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine while the European countries, with 200 (+/-) million more inhabitants, had allocated military aid worth $39.7 billion.

  • @markusleboschka6878
    @markusleboschka6878 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The RCH-155 is the first artillery useful for 'drive-by shootings'.

  • @bigmacntings7451
    @bigmacntings7451 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    french aid to ukraine is training UKR pilots on f16's??? when the french pilots are flying dassault?
    doesn't add up?
    NL/DK/NO i could understand as they operate the F16B/C which will be deployed

  • @vidaredland4808
    @vidaredland4808 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Toodle-pips, matey! 😎
    🦔🦔💙💛🦔🦔

  • @PLAN50
    @PLAN50 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Question: how is the cost of sent hardware in storage, determined?

  • @krt5524
    @krt5524 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Six and two threes. Gets rid of older US stockpiles (and UK) and the money is invested to provide
    more advanced ballistics to replenish. Ukraine still reaps the more high tech military kit over what
    Russia can offer.

  • @UFO-Ark
    @UFO-Ark 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Jon,
    Wht is it only men drafted?

    • @knightsnight5929
      @knightsnight5929 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I agree, however, just to point out that 60,000+ women are serving in the Ukrainian right now.

  • @paulbaines9125
    @paulbaines9125 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    On air defence Britain can send, do we still have any Rapier systems, old but could be made viable.

    • @surpriseitsus9622
      @surpriseitsus9622 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Good comment Paul

    • @allymac18
      @allymac18 11 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      They destroyed all the old Rapier system just as the Ukraine war started , the MOD got some crap for it by the defence committee in parliament.

  • @MarkPetersenHi1234
    @MarkPetersenHi1234 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Atacms are replaced by Prisms

  • @axelpro09
    @axelpro09 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    35:25 Rheinmetal have a big factory shell in Sardegna island , with 300 worker and from December the new factory already build but blocked by green mouvment it's unblocked from December 23 ,2 factory in 1 now They hired another 340 men with over 2k euros per month.

  • @KathysGuess
    @KathysGuess 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I’ve suspected for some time that the Czechia ammo deal is a ruse, possibly the Russians.

  • @user-uz9vb7hy1r
    @user-uz9vb7hy1r 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I thought brimstone were pretty modern and can be in dependently targeted .. also fire and forget

  • @onegrail9398
    @onegrail9398 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    historically the west takes a while to wake up but when it does....

  • @axelpro09
    @axelpro09 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    37:58 partisan time

  • @jberkeley1195
    @jberkeley1195 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Kinzal 🚀 💨💤hypersonic 😂🤣😂

  • @onegrail9398
    @onegrail9398 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Im going to side with jake on this one - the reason germany is non nuclear is ww1-2 meaning they need to buddy up with a nuclear nation. Atm america is their nuclear deterrent but they have the option of other (altho much less effective than americas nuke pile).... im not saying them not wanting their tec to be reverse engineered isnt a worry but not on the nuclear level... realistically it would probly be more risk sent to china and even then their tec is not going to improve much from it in any way other than countering that specific threat from germany.... This kind of event is how germany and japan can buy their way back to having weapons production rights like the other leading nations its not just that we expect them to do more we expect that because they have the most to gain from it...

  • @axelpro09
    @axelpro09 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    31:53 Ukraine have buyed RCH 155 and Already 18 are delivered. Only 2 crew same range over 40 km.that is future artillery 2 crew only and cechia have his too

  • @MJGMJGMJG
    @MJGMJGMJG 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Apparently, Paveway IV bomb (90 kg explosives, 30 km range, expensive) does not compare with a Russian Glide bomb (200 kg explosives, 70-80 km range, cheap).
    The War in Ukraine channel presented the infographics and talked about it on his video today.

    • @harold22774
      @harold22774 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      the difference is in the accuracy , a glide bomb can hit a field ,a paveway could hit a car in the field

    • @sk.43821
      @sk.43821 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Z fascist go home

    • @MJGMJGMJG
      @MJGMJGMJG 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@harold22774 They are accurate enough, often with pinpoint precision. There are different types by weight 250, 500 , 1500 and 3000kg. The FAB 1500 has 200 meters of destruction radius. Google the topic, read some articles.

  • @axelpro09
    @axelpro09 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    19:39 dozen of attack helicopter NATO LL be a panacea, fast to front, Moore range and tourn back.Salvos fired from fast and safer helicopters that can hit multiple times in nearby front areas would be like flying grad

  • @LOUNGELIQ
    @LOUNGELIQ 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Ukrainians need to do reverse engineering ATACMS like the Chinese do with technology.

  • @tremors562
    @tremors562 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Plane and ship launched missiles are easier to shoot down then ICBMs. Could be that Germany (and the US) probably see the benefit of having an advanced non nuclear missile that can probably take out ICBM silos quickly

  • @OliverBootle1
    @OliverBootle1 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Ireland 3rd highest GDP in the world, what are you doing?

  • @axelpro09
    @axelpro09 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    36:52 1 NATO shell is 3 or 4 Russia shell as quality e precision. In September counter battery destroyed Russian artillery as MOSChUVITos ( moschitos)

  • @user-kt3cm8kb3q
    @user-kt3cm8kb3q 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +3

    Jake is razor sharp on point my question is will China nibble or bite North Eastern Russia possibly in 3 or 4 yes time ?

  • @geofwassell
    @geofwassell 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Russian ammunition is inside warehouses? /targets.

  • @Nick-pq4ri
    @Nick-pq4ri 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Don’t get me started on Sky news I refuse to watch it and have done since this war started 😂🇺🇦🇬🇧✌️

  • @duncanbirnie4158
    @duncanbirnie4158 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Plausible EXCUSE 😡

    • @surpriseitsus9622
      @surpriseitsus9622 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      What are you commenting about?

    • @duncanbirnie4158
      @duncanbirnie4158 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@surpriseitsus9622 not sending Taurus missiles 😡

  • @ottrakkaselg8033
    @ottrakkaselg8033 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    US aid package is basically disposal/utilization of old "garbage." And almost free compared to what it would cost if done domestically and new stuff is being paid for. That garbage is not really garbage, but anyone who wants to, get what I mean. Well, of course, they could sell some of it, but not all, because it is not allowed. Now ad what benefits it will bring giving it to UA.... well no brainer, but somehow all still do not get it. It was like that from the beginning, but was not announced like that, it was even hidden, because showing big numbers as aid was good PR in the beginning.

    • @davidl.7317
      @davidl.7317 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I don't consider U.S. aid package garbage and don't think those on the receiving end of ATACMS and GIMLARS think they are garbage nor trained and equipped F-16 pilots.

    • @ottrakkaselg8033
      @ottrakkaselg8033 12 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@davidl.7317 "garbage" not garbage;) but it needs to be utilizised. so i hope you get my point.

    • @parcomolo256
      @parcomolo256 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Ukraine is free to take her business elsewhere.

  • @axelpro09
    @axelpro09 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    39:47 Russian number IT'S ALWAYS FAKE

  • @viggoholmsen7203
    @viggoholmsen7203 13 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    15:30 -
    It is a non-tenable rationalization for Scholz's unwillingness to deliver Taurus, not a well-founded explanation.
    And ... the Taurus doesn't have sufficient range to strike at Russian nuclear missile silos.