Jessica Berlin - Policy of Escalation Management has Hurt Ukraine and is Not a Strategy for Victory.
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 พ.ค. 2024
- Fears of Russia’s collapse in Biden’s and Scholz’s administrations run deep and can't be changed by telling stories of Russian war crimes alone. Advisers and analysts have been conditioned by decades of Soviet nuclear threat and memory of the chaotic and rapid collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. But what can turn politicians that cling to security blanket of escalation management, into leaders that imagine a Ukrainian victory, a triumph of pluralistic, democratic values, and plan accordingly?
----------
Jessica Berlin is an international political analyst, founder of the strategy consultancy CoStruct, and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors at the pan-African fintech company Bridge Technologies. She has previously lived in Afghanistan, China, Myanmar, Rwanda, the UK, and US and worked in security, foreign policy, and economic development. Institutions she’s worked with include the US Senate, US Department of Defence, and the German development agency. Her commentary has been featured on CNN, BBC, DW News, the Washington Post, Le Monde, and many others. She is currently a Non-resident Fellow at the think tank CEPA and has held past fellowships from the German Marshall Fun, the Robert Bosch Foundation, and others.
----------
ARTICLE:
bloodgoldreport.com
www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/...
----------
LINKS:
www.jessica.berlin/
/ berlin_bridge
/ berlinjessica
cepa.org/author/jessica-berlin/
www.policycenter.ma/adelportr...
warsawsecurityforum.org/speak...
----------
SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:
www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconc...
/ siliconcurtain
----------
TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:
Save Ukraine
www.saveukraineua.org/
Superhumans - Hospital for war traumas
superhumans.com/en/
UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukraine
unbroken.org.ua/
Come Back Alive
savelife.in.ua/en/
Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchen
wck.org/relief/activation-che...
UNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyy
u24.gov.ua/
Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation
prytulafoundation.org
NGO “Herojam Slava”
heroiamslava.org/
kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and Przemyśl
kharpp.com/
NOR DOG Animal Rescue
www.nor-dog.org/home/
----------
PLATFORMS:
Twitter: / curtainsilicon
Instagram: / siliconcurtain
Podcast: open.spotify.com/show/4thRZj6...
Linkedin: / finkjonathan
Patreon: / siliconcurtain
----------
Welcome to the Silicon Curtain podcast. Please like and subscribe if you like the content we produce. It will really help to increase the popularity of our content in TH-cam’s algorithm. Our material is now being made available on popular podcasting platforms as well, such as Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
Amazing guest, Jonathan! People like Jessica Berlin are extremely needed to promote Ukrainian cause. Thank you both 💙💛👍♥️
WOW - another DREAMER , Jessica Berlin, who has NOT a CLUE about the GeoPolitics, about the RealPolitik ... and essentially can contribute NOTHING to this discussion - another AOC-type 'dreamer' WHICH has NO IDEA HOW THE REAL WORLDS OPERATES !
I wrote to Biden about the need for strong moral leadership and got a speech back from Dr Wallander (indirectly) about not encouraging Ukraine 🇺🇦 to strike ‘so called civilian targets,’ as in oil refineries in Russia, which are clearly military or at least dual use targets. That made me so angry when I see Russia’s war crimes so blatantly every single day.
Thank you for your support!💛💙
I agree with you: as an American it us outrageous that my government was against Ukraine attacking Russian oil refineries, which are legitimate military targets. Unbelievable short sightedness!
Who on earth is dr wallander?
@@Titan-ee9em Dr Wallander is the spokesperson from the Pentagon who appeared before Congress in an exchange with Republican Senator Austin Scott during an inquiry into a report that the Biden Administration had told Kyiv to refrain from hitting oil refineries in Russia allegedly because it would raise gas prices ahead of the USA 🇺🇸 Presidential election.
War crimes of one nation don't justify war crimes of another. But at the same time, war crimes don't help in achieving victory , and targeting civilians doesn't help either. That said targeting fuel refineries is certainly within Ukraines rights and are a useful target to decrease Russia war fighting capability. This isn't targeting hospitals or schools.
What is most frustrating about the Biden administration is the limited support which may be enough to deny Russia victory but not enough for Ukrainian victory, which simply prolongs a stalemate, and shift factors onto economic and industrial capacity rather than military operations. It's shameful to ask Ukraine to fight as long as their methods don't inconvenience the rest of the world. They are doing what they can with what they have to be as effective as possible, and without increased tactical capabilities they target the enemies logistic capability while holding defensive lines. It's their best move right now.
I agree 100% with her statement that many of our Western leaders don't understand the mentality of a bully. I learned in elementary school that bullies don't pick on the big guys, & will also leave alone the smaller guys that fight back. I think this is so because many of our leaders grew up in financially well off families that likely lived sheltered lives, including going to private schools. I could be wrong, but having to deal with bullies from elementary through high school in public schools teaches you a lot about human nature.
Most European politicians are in office to make money by circumventing democracy for corporations. They didn't sign up to defend democracy. Who is going to bribe them to do that?
That bully thing seems a bit of BS. Maybe some falter and slink away. Those who can truly fight or otherwise overpower do not seem to just flee when they get hit, IF they get hit. "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face" rings a bit true, but facing someone who DGAF about law is an altogether different beast. Russia has been throwing bodies at wars for over a century, at least.
Yes of course but first you have to educate yourself as to who the Bully really is. That's not easy if you live in the "Empire of Lies"
When Nato Destroyed Yugoslavia what did you think. When supported the lunatic Albanians and gave a christian Kosovo to Islam...what did you think ? When Nato destroyed Libya which at the time was ranked 35th most prosperous country in the world, now it's 150th or when you killed millions in Iraq...Afganistan, Syria etc estimates are Nato has killed over 4 million people in the last 30yrs and displaced millions more. I know it's a bitter pill to realize your the bully...the free world knows the truth and that's why they support Russia
@@samsungtap4183 in this case Russia is the bully, your propaganda against NATO doesn't change the fact that Russia has invaded their neighbour and fights them in a very barbaric way with no consideration for civilians
Makes sense. Also teaches you how to deal with slutty girls...lol
Jessica is spot on. Thank you for providing the opportunity to see Jessica speak. I hope political leaders are listening.
WOW - Jessica Berlin just another DREAMER , who has NOT a CLUE about the GeoPolitics, and/or about the RealPolitik of the World ... and essentially she can contribute NOTHING to this discussion -
just another AOC-type 'dreamer' WHICH has NO IDEA HOW THE REAL WORLDS OPERATES !
What a wonderfully smart, eloquent and well-informed lady. More of Jessica Berlin!
Another acknowledgement that leaders from Baltics, and others in East Europe, have been sounding the alarm for years, yet were ignored or seen as hysterical. Now Finland and Sweden are in NATO there's a galvanizing of the Nordics and Baltics working together, and living in the reality of close proximity to Russia. Greetings from Estonia.
NATO can help with material aid and weapons here but I think Ukraine, Scandinavia, the Baltics & other former Soviet satellites like Poland and the Czechs understand this enemy better than the US or Western Europe. We can advise but y’all are better suited to leading in this war.
Oh yes Estonia. First you murdered for the soviets in their class war then you murdered for the Germans in their race war and then the Soviets again. Estonia swimming in blood. Yes you got away with mass murder always someone else's fault.
Unfortunately, as an American, many of our leaders will simultaneously think they know better than your nations while also being unwilling to take a real leadership role in the discussion.
Thank fuck that Poland, France, and the UK seem to be starting to realize the problem, i dont think US political leaders will listen to our other allies.
Jessica is one of the most intelligent and lucid communicators on Earth
Thanks you Jessica! You are a voice of reason for the Free World and true friend to Ukraine!
So great to hear from her again. Jessica Berlin rocks!
Best channel to hear committed supporters of Ukraine.
❤ from Germany
The most honest and accurate analysis together with Timothy Snyder's on the Western mistakes . Hear hear 👏👏
Agreed!!!
👍🇺🇲💓🇺🇦💪
Slava Ukraini
Bo Johnson ~ Tucson, AZ
Heroiam Slava!
Wow. Just wow. One of your best interviews and interviewee yet. Thanks.
The truth is we need put our money and our mouth where our morals are"
As an American citizen i dont believe i could have said it better
"We have weak leaders surrounded by weak advisors!"
Well said!
She is so right that there has to be disincentivization for aggressors to see that this is not the way forward. Plugging gaps is an old way of thinking.
She's has the broadest understanding of this conflict.
Jessica Berlin makes the problems we face very clearly understood with her well delivered and eloquent arguments about our only choice, complete victory over the brutal invader. The reality and consequences of defeat are also brought home very starkly. Our battle is not just with Russia, it is also with our own businesses whose actions are only concerned with monetary gain. They are blind to the wider picture and must be controlled and forced out of their one sided stupor.
👍👍
There has been a common thread in Russian history towards the West. First demanding western help (as if it is owed) and then biting off the hand that tried to feed them. It happened repeatedly under the Czars, under Stalin after WW2 and under Putin after 2000. The Russian also seem to prefer running a negative sum game. As in "If I can't have it, then neither can you. And I'll also try my best to make it even worse."
Russian global strategy includes increasing its control of global commodities and their prices. An example would be Venezuela recently. Russia, in part through its own lack of capabilities, essentially has reduced Venezuelan oil output from 3 million barrels a day to less than one million, just enough to prop up its client regime. African regimes appear to be accepting the model, seeing as it will work for themselves. Their people in general will be like Russians in general, with little recourse and a poor standard of living compared to what they could have. We should really hold up Cuba and Venezuela and Nicaragua as poster children for these African populations.
I cannot fault anything this woman says. She has a deep and clear understanding of the current situation and the weakness of the Wests leaders. Excellent interview. I only wish there were more people listening to her and, for that matter, the podcasts on Silicon Curtain.
Kudos to Jessica! One of the most sensible voices on Russias war on Ukraine and on the behaviour of the west in relation to this conflict! 👍
🇺🇦🇸🇪🇺🇦
The young lady expresses a lot of wisdom. Particularly @12:13 . The Ukrainians are exhibiting no less bravery & sacrifice than our own American (and Allied) forces that defeated NAZI's & Japanese forces in WW2. The future is NOW.
Amazing, give our thanks to Jessica
Jessica is great!
I don't think that she is that great.
@@Namuchat I do! Wise beyond her years.
Jessica Berlin = Accurate & wonderfully succinct. When the dots are so obvious you don't need a ruler to join them up. You do need Western 'Rulers' to collectively & effectively support Ukraine which means ramping up military capacity to thwart Russian aggression & imperial desires around the world. Learn from history - ignore it at the peril of lost freedoms. Freedoms that cost millions of lives & centuries of suffering. If you're not prepared to defend what you have - it will be 'taken' from you - it's not warmongering - it's the reality of life.
Thank you Jonathan and Jessica. People like you makes it possible to believe in a future for mankind.
Thank you for inviting Jessica Berlin! We need to AMPLIFY her voice in a viral way. Common sense is far too uncommon with the politicians calling the shots. Please people...heed Jessica's wisdom.
Absolutely one of THE best interviews!! Thanks to both of you!
Jessica says at 18:40 that those in the chancellory and White House seem to have never stood up to a bully on the playground. I wrote the White House months ago the same view, though I added at any age in any setting. Their fear while in leadership roles is pathetic and infuriating.
There is proof Russia would not resort to the nuclear option, their only escalatory option left, because Ukraine has multiple times in multiple instances crossed the red lines that are, in Russian law, triggers for a nuclear response.
Biden has a story about standing up to a young miscreant caller Cornpop. Joe threatened him with a length of chain! 😱
Jessica is so on target and brilliant in her discussion of the necessity to defeat russsia Thank you for this clip
Jessica Berlin is the best. Such a good interview.
Agreed, so many mistakes made and so many Ukrainian lives lost. Disgraceful.
"Disgraceful?" Words matter.
Pearl-clutching really does not help.
Part of the problem, and this is not a new problem in the US. It dates back to the Kennedy as I situation, really & it goes back to the way we run the State Department. There are a lot of dedicated career diplomats and foreign policy experts at State. The problem is that the people who call the shots and make most of the decisions are political appointees who rarely last longer than the length of whatever administration is in charge at the moment. Some of them are well-meaning but inexperienced wonks and academics, others are straight-up hacks. Nearly all of them are amateurs, however, and that’s a problem.
People like Jake Sullivan may mean well, but putting them in charge is like putting a rookie cop in charge of the NYPD.
Utmost respect for Jessica.
Intelligent, smart, articulated and clear logic. Good natural vibe.
Love her talking.👍
Aside that too me she is a real stunner. 😊
Formidable host👏
Jessica is an extremely eloquent speaker. That was a wonderful interview.
Great guest, great work! ❤
So glad you had her on the show. Big Jessica Berlin fan.
Superb - great guest, highly articulate and morally sound too
This lady is amazing! So knowledgeable and clear.
Thank you Jessica and Jonathan! This was a very interesting interview.
Slava Ukraini! Heroiam slava! Razom, do peremohi!
Greetings from Sweden
One of the best conversations so far. Jessica is very impressive.
I agree. We need a defined strategic policy with a defined end result. No more ambiguous statements coming from Western leaders. This is not what is needed for the situation.
"It is a good thing for imperial powers to lose wars." Absolutely goddamn right, we have been civilized by our defeats. Sending military aid to allow Ukraine to defend itself might not be helping russia, but it is most certainly helping the russians.
Timothy Snyder says that Germany did not suddenly decide to appreciate peace and prosperity, they were badly beaten in two wars.
Jessica is absolutely right. Thanks Jonathan and Jessica.
Self deterrence has been pretty upsetting to watch.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
I got so frustrated by a recent article in the Guardian by US 'strategist' Emma Ashford espousing this 'escalation management' attitude, even suggesting Ukraine was wrong not to agree to terms in early 2022. I wrote a response to the Guardian, but I could not limit my criticisms to 300 words as their website requests. I post it here in any case: I find many of the arguments made in Emma Ashford's article highly questionable. They remind me very much of John Mearsheimer's 'realist' stance about Ukraine and geopolitics, which essentially ignores the rights of smaller nations amongst larger spheres of influence. My strongest criticism is directed towards the notion that Ukraine could and perhaps should have agreed to 'compromise' in 2022, and that it would still be sensible to consider this option going forward. In my view, this would represent a far greater 'roll of the dice' than continuing to resist. I study the importance of discourse in historical narratives as a key part of my History PhD, and perhaps the word 'appeasement' carries far greater connotations here in the UK than in the US, shaping my perspective. But even if one were to ignore other historical precedents, and only to consider the last few decades, how could Ukraine possibly trust negotiated terms with a criminal authoritarian power which repeatedly violates the sovereignty of its neighbours, denies Ukraine's right to exist, and reneges on its past agreements? In my view then, given we are dealing with a highly duplicitous adversary, the conduct of early peace talks fundamentally does not 'disprove' the idea that Russia will never be satisfied until it is victorious. I am fully aware of different modes of remembering; antagonistic, cosmopolitan and agonistic. A generous reading would suggest an agonistic perspective seems to be the understandable aim of Ashford, whilst my view (although it may seem antagonistic) can most closely be linked to cosmopolitanism, and the view that democracy is a positive force and totalitarianism an evil one. Agonism stresses attention to the nature of a conflict and its social circumstances, context and agency. It suggests we should learn from the perspectives of both victims and perpetrators. However in my view, sometimes 'absolutist narratives' are necessary to stimulate political action and, crucially, are ultimately broadly correct. Indeed, the ways Ashford seeks to 'undermine' some of the narratives about Ukraine mirrors many Kremlin propaganda pieces which attempt to distort the issue of responsibility for their own actions, especially in stating '[m]any of Ukraine’s strongest supporters in Washington and in eastern Europe have repeatedly argued that Nato expansion and the issue of Ukraine’s potential accession to the alliance had nothing to do with Russia’s choice to invade, which they typically attribute to cultural chauvinism or imperial delusions.' Perhaps it was not the author's intention, but this wording seems to present NATO expansion as a legitimate Russian concern, depicting the growing alliance as aggressive rather than defensive in nature, and seemingly dismisses the fact that Russian imperialism is clearly present in a plethora of cultural examples (see Maria Shuvalova's work for example which has featured on Silicon Curtain) as well as in the actions (and not just the 'extreme statements') of its leadership and elites. Moreover, Ashford's perspective further ignores the fact that without NATO membership, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries would currently be far more vulnerable themselves to invasion. To be clear, in my view, there can be negotiation in future, but only to ensure ultimately once Ukraine is fully liberated that its sovereignty and economic future are secured.
Thanks.
Regarding Africa - The reason the west isn't getting anywhere in Africa is because the taking of bribes by officials is completely engrained into African culture. I agree with everything she says in the interview!!!
Terrific guest. No pulling punches for her. Western leaders could learn a lot from her.
Great interview with Jessica she is so right.Thanks Jonathan
Great to see Ms. Berlin here. I always tune in when she's on roundtables on DW. Outstanding expert and professional.
I was very pleased with her advocation for building on *effective* politics instead of the yelling-and screaming kind.
👍👍👍
Excellent discussion, thank you both so much! The last question in particular is something we all need to consider.
Excellent interview thank you, Jessica and Johnathon.
Always enjoy interviews given by Jessica Berlin.
Share this with Western leaders!
Yes, do that. She tells the truth. Late, late, late, wobbly, chocolate soldiers...I don't believe that one man could hold up the US edifice.. Sorry, the delay seems extremely contrived.
Jessica for President 🎉❤
Thank you, Jonathan, for your conversation with Jessica Berlin. Thank you, Jessica Berlin, you are brilliant.
🇺🇦 Перемоги і миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦
What a great job she's doing with her journalism. Thanks for the chat.
Agreed! I support Biden but Jake Sullivan needs to go! He’s at the center of this timid policy in the administration.
👍 yes. My feelings entirely.
@@SiliconCurtain Jake and his wife Maggie Goodlander technically reside in my state. She has a similar high level US government background. My US Rep has decided not to run this fall. Maggie Goodlander is exploring running. I said who? Never heard of her and if you google her it would seem she has the same foreign policy stance as her husband. I’m all set , no thanks.
@@SiliconCurtain : Disappointing.
@WalterBurton What is disappointing Walter? Put up or shut up.
@@susanmetcalfe4329 :
You'll pardon me if I paste my response to another comment that hopefully answers your aggressive "request."
@PeterA650 : You misunderstand. We're not talking about Putin's lawless murderous husk.
I walk with those who saw the regime for what it was and increasingly lost hope for its reform with every assassination.
We're talking about Monday-morning quarterbacking NATO strategy, in general, but the WH/NSC, more specifically. And Jake Sullivan, to be even more specific.
I don't give a rip about JS. No lost love, etc. Replace him. Couldn't care less.
But do it with cause. Explain how you would handle a nuclear adversary and woefully thin armies and stocks of materiel.
Explain what strategy you'd implement instead of the escalation management we've seen.
I get the atavistic desire to make it all make sense. But you can't just shout "MOAR, FASTER!" and wave your hands in the face of reality, as if you're invoking some powerful incantation.
I mean, you CAN do that. A lot of people are doing that.
Awesome guest. Exceptionally clear message and call to action.
An accurate and a no holds barred commentary on the policy of the western leaders. It’s been too little too late to protect a new burgeoning eastern Democracy.
Greetings from Germany/Gruß aus Deutschland. Slava Ukraine! 🇺🇦🇩🇪
thx for having Jessica on.
and now after the aid package is through where is the aid package to say "I'm sorry for the 6 month delay"?
Excellent video! I’m grateful for the summary and point of view that Jessica Berlin has shared with us today. I’ll be watching more of her videos and I’ll be looking forward to seeing other people interviewed on this channel.
Loved the pic of a Ukrainian drone labelled by the nickname "Escalation Manager".
The best thing the west can do is give Ukraine enough to win now, (it is also the cheapest). At the moment we have begun to give them almost enough to win forever. The most expensive outcome will be to allow Russia to defeat Ukraine. It will mean the need for Europe to carry out a massive increase in military spending to contain Russia for the next 40 years and America will have to decide whether it still wants to be the leader of the free world, no other country is likely to stand up for freedom like America has. Most European countries are not as committed to freedom as America is.
Wow! Fantastic episode as always and such a great and informed guest. Thank you so much for the wonderful coverage of this War.
I like this lass, she's hella sharp.
Thank you. This was a fantastically insightful discussion that needs a much wider audience. Will also add, it's enormously frustrating how the vast majority of our democracies' voters can't distinguish between a politician and an actual leader.
Eloquently and intelligently explained.......♥
brilliant understanding. May all Americans and westerners in general wake up to that.
Intelligence (with a good heart) is so hard to find...
An amazing guest, I agree.
Jessica Berlin is a joy to listen to. Brilliant, sharp as a knife and empahtetic in her analysis of the threat of autocracy. Love it!
A great video. African skepticism towards Western influence and politics is of course fully understandable in a historical context. The great irony, however, is that the alternatives are so much worse and utterly tragic for Africans. China puts them in bottomless debt to achieve political goals and the Russians give a damn about everyone but themselves. However, I am unsure whether increased trade with the Africans is realistic. As a rule, this develops more or less by itself if the basis for profit is there and there is political stability at the same time. There are several examples of large Western companies that have had production in Africa, but have withdrawn in favor of Asia. There are also examples of large international funds that have investments in Africa, but keep this at a relatively low level to reduce the risk. Unfortunately for the Africans, the global economy also means that investment follows profit where it is most readily available and fairly protected against unforeseen political and economic events. In this context, it will be a long time before international businesses again dare to invest in Russia.
Very incredible lucid analysis
One of the best interviews I've seen on this channel I think. Concise, powerfully argued. Spot on with her assessments. Politicians must start to listen!
Amongst one of the most consistent and informative ongoing discussions regarding the war in Ukraine. Part of my weekly consumption, thanks for producing it John
Oh.... still listening to Juzzie.
Yet jessica Berlin can't miss that one.😊
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦✌🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
👍👍👍
@@SiliconCurtain
Arrived 😊😊😊
Thanks Jonathan. Another very interesting discussion.
Thx great work!🙏🇺🇦👏
Another great interview,. Great insight. Remarkable.
I liked this interview because Jessica was honest about how nations in Africa have been treated. If we are serious about democracy, we need to support governments towards that end.
Absolutely brilliant bitter pill. Loud and clear. Thank you and your guest.
An expert worth hearing, thank you.
I first saw Jessica Berlin for over a year ago in a German television discussion. I was very impressed by her clear logic in the discussions.
Great Channel, great Interview.
Thanks a lot and kind regards
Thank you, very intresting !
Call Jessica talks about earlier, about leaders needing to step up and admit mistakes, remind me of all Australian Prime Minister, giving a speech to the American people. It’s probably one of the best speeches by an Australian p.m. right when the Japanese were smashing through across Asia. Some people would call it the “we are fighting mad” speech, but he sets up in the beginning, exactly what she says. He talks about how western world drop the ball on the rise of the Japanese., without casting a particular blame on anyone, but to highlight that “ thanks are stern things.” Today we need a leader who will step up and say exactly that, facts are stern things
Jessica Berlin is such a joy to listen to, I have been following her works for many years, truly an inspiring and intrepid woman, especially with her having (to some extend I believe) German roots, germany certainly could use and would urgently need more people of her quality and stature!
This is the Berlin im talking about💙💛
Fantastic interview and unbelievably insightful and articulate guest! Wow! Thank you very much.
Thank you for this great episode ❤
Wauw. She REALLY is intelligent.
Give her more space.
Pure, intelligent people don't get much of a chance (either Nobel Price or perishment)
“ a generation of leaders who have bought into the myth of the end of history” You nailed it-thank you!
Thank you, Jonathan. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
✨Merci!✨
💙💛
Jessica needs to go into Politics if I was German I would campaign for her. 👍
Thank you Jessica, for an honest and clear logic. Yes, this is a crisis of leadership in the West, and Ukraine is paying with lives for this ridiculous and cowardly policy of “not provoking Russia”.
What an amazing brave good very wise woman thankyou Jonathan for all your hard very important work.
Great Guest! Sometimes education beats experience which can create a delayed response for fear of the known!!!