Inside Russia’s New Coup Program and the Neo Cold War
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 ก.ค. 2024
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Coups and coup attempts appear to be on the rise: Burkina Faso four times in less than three years, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone twice, Gabon, Niger, the DRC, Kyrgyzstan, and Peru. This is not a coincidence. Rather, it is a natural extension of recent changes in the geopolitical system. This video explores how superpower competition during the Cold War dictated coup incentives in aid-dependent countries, how that changed in the post-Cold War years, and why a shift to a Neo Cold War might make things return to the way they once were.
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0:00 A Coup Renaissance?
4:08 Aid Dependency and Coup Dynamics
5:47 How Coups Worked during the Cold War
7:14 When the Aid Funds Dried Up
8:47 How Coups Worked Post-Cold War
10:41 Changes in Coup Frequencies
13:45 Is a New Era of Coups upon Us?
16:35 The West's New Dilemma
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Russia is trying to be what basically it thinks the US is.
they truly believe in the "Ukraine coup", the current "Georgian coup", they think the "color revolutions" are orchestrated by the US completetly ignoring the people there.
So they're going for easy targets in Africa right now trying to "imitate" the US. But they forgot the fact that we can now easily prove that Wagner is operating there, are opposed to any military operating in Ukraine, Georgia etc. before the war started.
You need to make videos on the Russia of the East. China and their aggression against their neighbors like the Philippines.
Did you speed up the video slightly for the ad segment?
The big question is will Swan Lake be played on Russian TV at some point soon?
"Grandpa? Why is the ballet on tv?"
".............Go get Grandpa's emergency vodka, it's gonna be a long day."
I heard some russian TV was recently hacked, and they indeed played swan lake :D
In Soviet Socialist Russia the lake swans YOU.
Gigachad reference.
If there were any justice in the world, it would've been doing so a while ago.
Seeing as you mentioned attempts at coups, I believe the most embarassing coup failure in recent history is the peru one. The man had no support among any of the powerful people one needs to seize control of a country, he didn't have the police, he didn't have the military, he didn't even have an angry mob on his side. He just straight up says he is disbanding the congress with not a single reason why anyone needs to listen to him. He seemed to realize it was a long shot because in his broadcast announcing it he was shaking like a chihuahua.
The 2022 monarchist plot in Germany was pretty embarrassing too, to be fair.
@@tokevarvaspolvi8999 fair, but the monarchist plot at least had multiple people and weapons, that is significantly more then the peru attempt had going for it.
That plot is never even took of so we have no idea how it would have went.@@tokevarvaspolvi8999
He have some popular support, the country was in caos after he was detained
@@tokevarvaspolvi8999 oh hey, you probably know. What was up with the Olaf Scholz coup joke made in the vid? Was it related to that?
As a German citizen I can confirm that Olaf Scholz is a mystery man. Noone knows what he stands for or how a guy like him became chancellor.
There could not be a more unqualified person in charge than Scholz! A stance pacifist to the detriment of Ukraine 🇺🇦!
Right .... the classic German excuse. (Just kidding.)
Entire Europe: We gonna block and sanction Russia and we will take all needed resources from Africa there was plans for gas and oil pipelines,
Russia: No you wont. LOL
I guess the same way a short Austrian with a moustache came into power? Hopefully not the same though...
@@runrau9275probably not the same, but idk
Imagine your outlook on geopolitics being
"If you put a spoonful of wine into a barrel of sewage, you get sewage. If you put a spoonful of sewage into a barrel of wine.."
you get better tasting sewage?
hmmmm aroma. 😋
irn bru?
You've got the Asda "best value picks" range wine...
you get Napoleon Bonaparte
The rise in coups is definitely because of ordinary things his coup guide video
The world started unravel after America made Trump its leader and covid..we are over covid mostly other than the long term economic effect but Trump may return. If he does invest in China and sell the $ if u have shares in that!
As a simple partisan, i see a man of culture - i like..😹
What about the release of "Coupe D'etats for Dummies"?
Personally, I think the impact of such books shouldn't be underestimated and might give notion to reconsider the boundaries of freedom of speech.
@@dotz7616to place boundaries on freedom of speech is anti-thetical to freedom of speech
It's either all okay, or none of it is
@@dotz7616😂😂no
And now an attempt of coup d'etat in Bolivia, man you nailed it
4:17 Speaking of demographics, I’m part of a very small percentage of viewers from the Philippines! These videos really help in my Political Science studies. Keep em going, maybe someday you’ll find more topics to talk about within Southeast Asia.
Don’t listen to this bakla my pinoy friend , nothing but Anglo lugenpresse
Referring to Africa: Like a 19th century motor car engine, it runs at about 400 revolutions per minute...
Somehow nice to have a TH-cam channel without spelling mistakes.
Dr Spaniel needs to make a side channel doing dad jokes. 😂😂
And leave them there instead of this channel.
@@DrJones20 someone's been chugging the hateraide lol
@@DrJones20 Nah, they need to be on both.
This channel only exists because his kids don't wanna listen to his rambles or humor 😂
Still waiting for someone to make a "Dr Spaniel out of context compilation" 😂
Was definitely interesting seeing Africans waving Russian flags cheering Wagner on as Wagner secures gold and diamond mining operations returning that wealth to Russia. It was even rumored or confirmed that Prigozhin’s final visit to see Putin was to discuss Wagner’s involvement is even more African mining operations with that expected to Russia wealth was Prigozhin trying to buy his way back into Putin’s grace.
Better them than the West. A lot of people really subscribe to that mindset...
actually wagner group do offer the good deal. clear the rebel get the mineral right near the rebel stronghold operate the mine and you still get the profit sharing of said mine.
if wagner didn't success they get nothing like in mozambique.
You cannot buy Putin, that is the thing with him... Look at how France etc have eated up everything of value in Africa and given them some shit rules in favor of themself.
@@wuthichaiauomsin6237but at what cost in the end?
Two years after they burned Russian flags
Commenting for engagement and enjoying these lines on maps!
Been loving your release tempo!
Apollo was the god of wisdom and prophecy, not light. He did carry the sun across the sky in his chariot, but their sun god was Helios. The Greek gods could be roughly divided between the Olympians who had dominion over nature and more elemental gods who personified nature. Another example is Poseidon who ruled over the sea, but Triton personified the ocean. Hades ruled over the underworld, but Thanatos was the personification of death.
Apollos's no-pants story was magnificent! Thank you for adding that delightful tidbit.
always enjoying your uploads
Great work and insights with that crucial dash of fun; thank you!
btw, cow in German is 'Kuh' (read: "coop", as in half a coupcoup)
It's really more like coup. Or maybe coo.
Great job William! Thank you!👍
I love how you speed up the audio for the sponsored portion.
As for the video, awesome as usual.
Thanks will!
Wow! I learned a lot about coups from this video. Thanks for explaining the patterns of them in a more bite sized format. 👍🏼
Good reporting. Many thanks. Strong democracy.
They just democratically appointed a new NATO chief that literally decided if your nation lives or dies
@@gwinbleys1586 strong democracy right there, as God intended
@@gwinbleys1586K, Vlad
@@gwinbleys1586have another vodka Ivan
@@gwinbleys1586that’s not how it works ffs😂😂😂
Ground news is awesome.
I like watching your videos, you make geopolitics a little less depressing. Thanks mate
Interesting. A useful analysis. Thank you!
even though parts of these videos are very basic I always learn a few things from them
It is cool that someone makes IR theory approachable to a wider audience
12:25 Even as a German, I don't get the sidekick about Olaf Scholz.
I take it as. He is not a guy likely to be behind a coup. But rather a compromisor.
So in the skit. The shadowy guy might not be a danger.
I just thought it was him poking fun at using his Olaf image for the shadowed guy because he needed someone random for it.
I dont think there was any sidekick, I understood it as Scholz/Germany isn't affected by foreign aid or right wing or elections compared to some small african leaders etc.
Another great video.
I thought that was the flag of India for too long. I was like "when we talking about them?"
Not a minute in but fun and informative as always :)
thank you
Informative, concise, and somewhat provocative, as always.
Have you considered some longer format videos? Or is that what the merch is for? Brb, gonna spend some money
Loooll, 12:17 I saw that coming. That silhouette looked eerily familiar.
Thank you!
Great vid. Please look into Russian interference/funding in the South African election. There are several reports of the Kremlin backing the new MK party.
Given that South Africa is one of the biggest economies in Africa, it's probably a good idea to have a global discussion/awareness of the Russian powerplay in South Africa.
SA is 70% of the way to a failed state has 40% unemployment and all the young whites are leaving. I doubt it will even be worth mentioning in a decade.
In Africa's eye it is Russia helping them to get rid of France etc that takes most of their ressourses and keeping them poor.
@@RogueSecretafrica will remain poor live here in the west France maybe put a choke hold on them but Africa downfall is Africa fault they will take in any nation for money lol 😂
@@RogueSecret being born and raised in South Africa (and still living here), I can assure you it's not Western Influence keeping the country poor. It's corrupt government, failure of all state run enterprises and cadre deployment that is destroying the country. The MK party being objectively one of the most corrupt. Russia is not empowering them because of a love of South Africans, it's because they are willing to weaponise the corrupt in order to obtain power, DESPITE the terrible poverty and suffering it will cause.
@@RogueSecretguess what russia is going to do 😂😂😂😂
hi will, please keep them lines on map coming
While I do greatly enjoy your geopolitical analysis, it's puns like that at 18:58 that really fit the bill for an engaging video.
Your videos are very insightful. Thanx!!!!!!!
I’m glad I stayed for the outro. Wasn’t ready for that but very funny.
Oh, when I saw the video I was hoping I had missed some breaking news over the weekend and someone finally had enough of Putin... ;-) Interesting video as always, anyway!
The idea of long term significant Russian influence in Africa is very difficult for me to imagine.🤔
They are quite a bit late to the whole colonialism thing.
Some Africans won't bat an eye to Russia's influence. They're seen as a lesser evil.
I think some of the coups in Africa are related to control of resources, most notably Uranium. You'll probably see an increased presence from Russia. US and China.
@Alb410
Not at all, for some reason they just avoid that word, but have forcefully colonised most of their current land, never mind Tzarist empire or USSR. Classical empires have colonies, but people forget and don't talk about it. Colonies isn't limited to southern hemisphere, but in case of Africa has usually more voluntary nature, at least by majority of rulers. These are classical Spanish, British, Dutch, Portugese and German colonies, but there are many others.
What Russia has done to the other nations, regions, and especially ethnicities with Russian passports today (and mostly call themselves Russians by other name "Россияни") which got russified beyond possibility of modern nationhood is usually a downgrade and persecution. This is a way of colonisation by russifying. The difference about colonised lands on current RF soil, is in time of colonisation and erasing of identities of asian people beyond their capability of forming own nations and states. Who could do it (mostly European ones), separated and got their independence after the collapse of Russian empire. There is some like Ichkeria, Dagestan and Bashkirtostan which tried and failed (still had a short-lived self-proclaimed republics at the end of WW1), with most of the independence supporters being purged or exiled. Some devolved in dictatorship and/or marginal puppet states, mostly ending with -stan.
However, if the age of classical colonies is long over because life on Earth has changed, underhand proxi-colonies and puppet-states might yet come in force and only autocracies can afford to organise them.
@@Alb410 There's no colonialism to Africa from Russian side right now, its Africans selling themselves and being proud of it LOL
So, why does the phrase "Coup Plotter" always make me smirk?
Thank you
Nice segway to your books, I like it
thank you for stepping outside of ukraine for a second, it's interesting but I needed the variety to make things more interesting, if you see what I mean. Great video as ever.
Why was that ground news ad so sped up, I had to check my playback speed sounded like you were talking at 1.5 times ahaha
Perú mentioned!
At 16:32 Instead of co-habitation, you could say 'coup-habitation'. 😩🤣🤣🤣
Does anyone have the contact info for Militaires Sans Frontières?
!
They might "Recruit" you if you loiter in Afghanistan.
Careful, Cipher is still after them.
If you wait long enough in a swamp, they'll award you a few medals.
Loved the Olaf Scholz Reference 😄
that 100 ruble note was just "nuts". Thanks for another great video.
I see what you did there...
@@Gametheory101 surprised you didnt make a video on what is happening in dagestan as its hitting main stream news. looks like the heavy mobilization and disproportionate body bags coming back to those regions compared to the slavic regions is fermenting anger and resentment. even the ingush liberation army has been active last 3 months hitting russian police check points. 2nd front opening up for russia in the caucaucus region?
As usual.... Great video.. Entertaining and Educating
Hi Dr. Spaniel!
Lines On Maps can predict coup attempts with 99% accuracy! Geopolitical strategists hate him!
Hey Grig freut mich dich hergelockt zu haben :D
Hey Grid! Glad you got lured here! >:D
@@theorixlux2605 U're not Grig, aren't you?! >:O
That 100 Ruble note story was nuts
Here from Southern Ontario
I like William's videos and books, he is a very intelligent man.
France is pissed . They will act!
Not pissed enough to try to retain any of their power in Africa lately. They were asked to leave and withdrew nearly all their forces, which was condemned by some in France too. It's hard to tell what exactly happens now in former African colonies, but most of French ones are gone and they're not attempting to hold on to any influence whatsoever. These countries have been officially independent for a long time now, so only business and few remaining political/military interests are further cut. I guess the locals are about to find out which influence they really prefer, but the blanket of Russian/Chinese propaganda over it all will make it hard to tell even for the couped, never mind outside. Wagner will never tell the truth.
@@dannydetonator Its not hard to tell if you look at broader picture of world stage. Western powers losing everything, including grips on the colonies. The former colonies now colonize western world and look towards BRICS. The French themselves have little to no balls to hold the situation.
All of that is why France has been taking a harder line in Ukraine and it's going to increase.
Wagner/Russia cost France Billions and threatens there plutonium supply.
The past 10 years it's been coming and France was handcuffed. There in a vendetta mood that's going to last a decade.
The FFL & French mobile forces were chasing Wagner & there sponsored groups.
They ran for most part. Now that they bought out the locals they can tell the French to leave without fighting.
@@dannydetonator In the end the longer term results will make clear how things really went though. Whether things actually really improved in the end or not.
@@dannydetonator those countries gained indwpendence very recently not "long time ago"
Welcome to Kenya 👋✅🇰🇪
Could have these videos on a podcast as well? Like Economics Explained does
It works like a podcast using YT Premium but you need to have that subscription.
4:17 meanwhile me watching this from Colombia ;-;
could be worse. I'm watching this from Ukraine (￣ω￣;)
Latinos are getting conned by trump and putin too. Latinos have a soft spot for “strongman” patriarchal male fascist leaders that tell them what to do. They mistake this bluster for lack of weakness, but fascism IS WEAKNESS. DEMOCRACY is real strength, as disorganized and massy as it is.
Controlling people and dictatorships suck! Men confuse this behavior with strength, it is NOT.
Trump will break up Hispanic families in the U.S. and cause terrible trouble, you’ll see. Latinos will regret their support, trump has no love for Latinos. Putin is using people for cannon fodder.
"probably has a fair bit of wealth, fictional economy and good governance"
Dam how did i get here living in a country with none of those things. i thinkthe algorithm is broken
To your point at 4:20 (good timing BTW), I would be interested to know what the viewership is from here in Russia. There is the language barrier, as you will note that the first 4 Top Geographies are anglophone countries (minus Quebec in Canada and New Mexico in the USA), but there are still many people here who want an alternative source of information. Thank you for what you do.
@ 2:30: really scary, that pulsating Putin picture..... And 17:08: does Orban has a toad face or what....?
Uh you forgot the January 6 coup attempt in the US and the 2022 coup plot in Germany.
One thing that could have been explored in this video is the Arab Spring, what were the coup policies that affected it. I don't think that the majority of the countries involved there ended up in more democratic rule.
THe Congo one was all over the news in my area because the guys involved recruited or try to recruit his son's buddies from high school for "security"
@1:00 I believe this is called the Reverse-I Coup You card
Judging on the video’s preview, I first thought you were talking about a coup in Russia😭
It's quite interesting looking at that Nixon administration photo at 9:03 and recognizing so many people who would go on to future notability: Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, George Bush Sr., and so on.
That is kinda how politics works.
It's weird, like running into the future governor at the grocery store.
Politics is about playing nice with people you normally wouldn't cross the road to piddle on if they caught fire. Otherwise nothing much gets done.
I'm reminded of the wisdom of Mallory Archer, who's seen coups from Angola to Zanzibar and knows they always end in the trunk of a taxi, a belly full of diamonds and vodka, praying the driver doesn't sell you out at the last Red checkpoint. Hehe, "coups".
If you think Apollo's assets are shocking, take a look at the US 1896 $5 Silver Certificate, or 1916 Standing Liberty quarter.
From what I could google, they didn't seem so bad. Perhaps you can enlighten us?
For anyone who is interested in the historical context of coups and revolutions, I would highly suggest the podcast 'Revolutions', by Mike Duncan. The style isn't too far from the delivery on this channel, informative, engaging, and a little bit funny. Mike Duncan documents the spread of revolution across the globe starting with the American revolution, explores the causes and connections between them, and generally goes into way more detail than you'd get in even a set of college courses. Check it out. You'll thank me.
Definitely recommend that series: historically detailed, engagingly delivered, politically descriptive but nonbiased. Especially if you want a meticulous breakdown of the chaos of the Russian, Haitian, Cuban, French, French again, American etc Revolutions, one "season" for each. (Spoiler: it's always land reform.)
@@user-to9ge8ii9n His series gave me a stronger understanding of the French revolution by really spelling out how all of the pieces were fitting together and interacting, but my favorite was by far the series on the revolutions in South America. That cast of characters was amazing.
12:30 what's with the Schulz joke? I don't get the background
Absolutely NONE of this ever gets reported in the UK. 😠
I'm surprised you didn't go for the twofer by sneaking in a segue into Manscaped.
Another interesting and informative video. I only wish you had mentioned France's part of the equation. This has been their sphere of influence with a substantial commitment of troops and funds to maintain regime security and stability against Islamic Jihadists. It would be interesting to know what happened to change this. Thanks as always for breaking it down for the layman with humor mixed with the dry analysis.😄🤔
Basically the natives are sick of being part of France’s hidden empire.
And now Bolivia 🇧🇴 today.
Good to see Australia and Canada punching above our weight in your viewer numbers.
Lots of muchly intellgents here! 🙂
Please tell me when 'Swan Lake' will start on RT.😮
Coup story, bro 👍
yeah but what about the oil refineries?
This makes me think of how my travels through Africa have been affected by such coups and attempted coups. I traveled surface except in 1991, where the French and American military were flying foreigners out of Zaire (later DR Congo, before Belgian Congo), so I decided to fly from West Africa to Southern Africa. A decade later, I could at least benefit from other travelers' experience on the internet (Thorntree/LP).
@Gametheory101 just realized, an aggressively realistic geopolitical (intergalactic political) analysis for Dune would be amazing. It's easily the first book that opened child-me's mind to its concepts.
Definitely Kenya.
Duran for the truth
Timely 🇧🇴
The word “coup” was used so many times here, I suddenly started imagining a cuckoo cooing about how couscous is coo’.
Late to the party, but a hearty LOL and “coup-coup’s nest”
Peruvian President: I outlaw you, congress!
Peruvian Congress: LOL
Love the two double entendres at the end, very sneaky 😈 LOL
Did you speed up your voice during the ad? Nice if true.
I thought it just seemed cool because I was in my teens; but the 1990's really was the coup-lessed decade.
Is jt just me or was the add placement sped up?
9:52 well that happened in Egypt
Whatd the name of that film where a cup of coffee gets smashed on Gorbachevs head and steve martin cleans the stain off with a cloth?😂
Vicky Nuland was so successful and bragged about her success!
Russia calling the kettle black.
Spaniel!