My dad was a Korean Conflict veteran, purple heart, saved by divine intervention and a M.A.S.H. unite. He had great respect for the Turkish soldiers he briefly interacted with.
@@blokeabouttown2490 lost his right eye, lost a lot of his hearing, had over 1000 open wounds a couple weeks later. Don't think he was conscious enough to recognize any characters, but he did like the TV show.
Kiwis have a lot of respect for Turks after Gallipolo in ww1 in which Brittish command sent them and Australians to the wrong place where they got slaughtered up against the cliff face and High dune hills from the sea landing. But also in bonding after the war as civilians rather than empires clashing.
@@grrrbrrr9053 hmm, based on your comment history, is there any reason you live on videos that mention Turkey? Might be based on your own ethnicity perhaps?
It’s pretty obvious that the Central Asian countries need a Turkic alliance. The latest issue with Russian comments on annexing Uzbekistan demonstrate the need for these countries to organize a defense alliance to replace CSTO, that is, if they don’t want to completely fold into a Chinese umbrella, which is just as injurious as a Russian one.
Organization of Turkic States is slowly evolving into an economic and security union, the countries do not want to go super fast with this because they dont want to spook Russia and China. So it will take another 20 years to complete that
A Turkic alliance would be welcome; but as you allude to, Russia will want to assert itself in it. For good or ill. Eurasianism is the most developed political philosophy pertaining to pan-Turkic movements, and it is a Russian philosophy. Turkey's awakening to its _Turkic_ antecedents is relatively recent (19th cen.), for most of their history, the Ottomans used "Turk" as a pejorative for their Turkic brethren. Whereas Russia has been more accepting of the role Turkic peoples have made in the development of their nation.
@@devalapar7878 Yes, I am well read. Russia has been _relatively_ more accepting of Turkic peoples historically, with widespread acknowledgment of the role that they played in the formative years of Rus'. This has resulted in a popular and extensive political philosophy called Eurasianism. Notwithstanding the early wars; and later, the pogroms under Stalin.
@@SacClass650Don't try to make a perception campaign in vain. It was not my grandfather who forcibly deported Tatars, Turkıcs and Caucasian people from the Caucasus, Crimea and many other geographies. We only have 5 million Turkish citizens and kinsmen of Tatar origin who were deported at various times under Russian domination.
He is literally not. I am Turkish and it took him 20 seconds to spread his first misinformation in this video and there are countless misinformation in the rest of the video too
I have lived in Turkey for about 7 years doing my postgraduate there. I speak fluent Turkish... I am from Somalia and the Turkish military and business are already in Mogadishu and Hargeisa.
It was amazing to listen, as a Turk I couldn’t agree more on these scenarios. I just came across with your channel and really amazed by your knowledgr!
i love how you are millions of miles better educated about turkey and surrounding countries than our own people who lives in the country... very interesting video sir keep the good work up!
Another thing to bear in mind is Turkey has kept shipbuilding expertise. OK, they are for yachts including superyachts. But they have a tax-free (or so low as to be functionally meaningless to the state) shipbuilding region and they are enormously successful and respected. My point is the SKILLS and SHIPYARDS to build naval vessels, well, it's not starting at zero.
Do you have the skills to equip these ships with anything more than dumbfire artillery pieces? Can you produce advanced weapons systems domestically and at a sufficient number to outfit multiple modern warships simultaneously?
@@Troglodytarum the Turks are very well developed militarily, for the economy. Made extraordinary use of drones. A ship laden with drones would be a terror of the seas. I do take your point (they are not at mil spec) but my point is going from civ spec to mil spec is MUCH shorter training and cost leap than Absolute Zero to mil spec.
@@Troglodytarum Part of the reason Erdogan is stalling the Nato accension of Sweden is because of the defense industry that Sweden has, which is completly domestic and not dependant on other nations tech. Particularlly the naval sector. Swedish ships have defeated american Aircraft carriers in several war games in the past. It's not something they'd ever go public with, we know he wants planes from the US aswell, but don't be surprised if Saab happens to open an office in Turkey in a few years.
Turk here, One major aspect you didn't mention is the society, Turkish society is quite polarized due to recent 20 years of politics to the extent that it resembles the US nowadays. A Rep or Dem leadership would change the fabric of the state after 2 decades, and it already has in Turkey. Could always change in the other direction though.
I don't think that the CHP will win ans election soon, they are very incompetent even with very high inflation and erdogan economic miss management they've lost so it will continue with the current coalition !
Agreed…and that would be more of a US versus Venezuela problem. Maduro wants to pound his drum fiercely in the nightfall of the jungle to keep the shadows at bay. This is one of these festering post-Cold War cold sores. Guyana has such a tiny military. For the UK, the ghost of the Falklands/Malvinas war looms over this dispute because of the sheer economic costs of projecting any significant military force to the region. The US would have to step in for Guyana, and the US - Venezuelan relations are in a bit of a thaw, altho a shallow thaw. Brazil is also engaged on the borders there, but they are so preoccupied internally and face their own logistical challenges in moving any substantial military forces thru the Amazon into the remote tepui country. Border conflicts between Venezuela & Columbia with their simmering narco/guerrilla insurgencies is another post-Cold War slow boil.
British involvement? Sending one small warship to take part in naval exercises barely constitutes involvement from the British. It's American assurances the Gyanese are relying on.
As a Turk, I'd say 100% of the things you say is culturally and geopolitically very well understood, well defined and beautifully told. Thank you for that.
LÜTFEN herkes gerçekleri gösteren bir 'dosya' yapsın kanalında, nasıl mı? Bak anlarsın. Sonra başkalarınında aynısını yapmasını isteyebilir benim şu an yaptığım gibi. Ve 'dosya' hazır olduğunda, kalabalık yorumlara bir yorum atın, kanalınıza baktıracak nitelikte. Bu şekilde diğer 'dosyalar da' gözleri önlerinde oluyor. Bir kişi üç kişiyi etkilese, milyonlar, milyarlar oluruz.
@ESKiTUFEK1 Ülkemin adını yanlış yazanlara benim devamlı yolladığım (kendi) yazım aşağıdadır: ---------------------------------------------------------- Heres something you may find interesting. :) The name of my country has nothing to do with the interesting and delicious bird ''turkey''...... .....but the name of the bird does have a connection with the name of my country, let me explain. :) Name of my country has always been Türkiye, it's been known as such since around the 1200's. The name it self has a suffix, '' -iye '', that is Turk-iye, where the -iye suffix means 'land of/belonging to', just like the Latin suffix of '' -ia '', which exists in such country names like Austr-ia, Austral-ia, Latv-ia, Roman-ia etc etc again meaning 'land of/belonging to'. Many would remember the country Czechoslovak-ia which changed it's name to Czech Republic and a few years ago changed that to Czechia (that is Czech-ia). The Latin suffix -ia probably originates from Turkish -iye as Turkish is much older, ancient Turkish been over ten thousand years old. Spelled in different languages in different ways to phonetically resemble '' Türkiye '' we got various spellings like; Turquía (in Spanish), Turchia (in Italian), Turquie (in French) and Turkey (in English) all trying to resemble the pronounciation of ''Turk-ia'' thus Turkiye. Mind you this was way before the animal we currently know as 'turkey'' was found by the europeans when they explored the north americas. The bird was first sent to europe from north americas in the year 1519, so up until that point there was no bird named 'turkey'.... ...they came across the bird and thought it was a specie of the fowl/chicken they had been buying from the country of Turkiye at the time, so they named the bird ''Turkey Fowl'' meaning ''Turkish Chicken''..... ....just like how a dog breed is known as German Shepherd (because it's from Germany), American Bulldog, British Terrier, Greek Harehound etc etc. In time you don't get to call the Greek Harehound as simply as ''Greek''; or you don't call the British Terrier as ''British''; or the German Shepherd as ''German'', but in time the Turkish Fowl started to be called just ''Turkey'' and later ''turkey'', and has been going on for hundreds of years. Now in modern times, this is causing confusion, especially when we have people across the world unable to point to their own country on the map, this ''confusion over the naming'' needed to be corrected. So my country decided to rectify this confusion that has been going on for so long and corrected the name to Türkiye, which it always was. Basically we didn't change the name of our country, we changed the mistake made in the English language. : ) So, there's some tid bit information for you to have a great day, if you read upto this point you have a great night too, ohh just have a wonderfull life. : ) Best wishes. ;)
Ülkemin adını yanlış yazanlara benim devamlı yolladığım (kendi) yazım aşağıdadır: ---------------------------------------------------------- Heres something you may find interesting. :) The name of my country has nothing to do with the interesting and delicious bird ''turkey''...... .....but the name of the bird does have a connection with the name of my country, let me explain. :) Name of my country has always been Türkiye, it's been known as such since around the 1200's. The name it self has a suffix, '' -iye '', that is Turk-iye, where the -iye suffix means 'land of/belonging to', just like the Latin suffix of '' -ia '', which exists in such country names like Austr-ia, Austral-ia, Latv-ia, Roman-ia etc etc again meaning 'land of/belonging to'. Many would remember the country Czechoslovak-ia which changed it's name to Czech Republic and a few years ago changed that to Czechia (that is Czech-ia). The Latin suffix -ia probably originates from Turkish -iye as Turkish is much older, ancient Turkish been over ten thousand years old. Spelled in different languages in different ways to phonetically resemble '' Türkiye '' we got various spellings like; Turquía (in Spanish), Turchia (in Italian), Turquie (in French) and Turkey (in English) all trying to resemble the pronounciation of ''Turk-ia'' thus Turkiye. Mind you this was way before the animal we currently know as 'turkey'' was found by the europeans when they explored the north americas. The bird was first sent to europe from north americas in the year 1519, so up until that point there was no bird named 'turkey'.... ...they came across the bird and thought it was a specie of the fowl/chicken they had been buying from the country of Turkiye at the time, so they named the bird ''Turkey Fowl'' meaning ''Turkish Chicken''..... ....just like how a dog breed is known as German Shepherd (because it's from Germany), American Bulldog, British Terrier, Greek Harehound etc etc. In time you don't get to call the Greek Harehound as simply as ''Greek''; or you don't call the British Terrier as ''British''; or the German Shepherd as ''German'', but in time the Turkish Fowl started to be called just ''Turkey'' and later ''turkey'', and has been going on for hundreds of years. Now in modern times, this is causing confusion, especially when we have people across the world unable to point to their own country on the map, this ''confusion over the naming'' needed to be corrected. So my country decided to rectify this confusion that has been going on for so long and corrected the name to Türkiye, which it always was. Basically we didn't change the name of our country, we changed the mistake made in the English language. : ) So, there's some tid bit information for you to have a great day, if you read upto this point you have a great night too, ohh just have a wonderfull life. : ) Best wishes. ;)
Spent some time in Turkey in a NATO assignment, more years ago than I like to admit, and the influence of religion in Turkey's worldview can not be discounted. While moderate religiously, when compared to Iran, religion is still something that has to be factored into the equation.
Maybe because I'm living in a tiny village, I only see the old men and women becoming more religious. The younger generation have turned money into their new deity.....
One thing Peter does over and over again is forget the role of the EU and NATO. Most member countries of both organisations are very happy with this situation because it gives them a voice and stops them being pushed around by bigger countries (yes this happens still, but within the rules of fair play). There’s no way somewhere like Bulgaria wants to be bounced between the Russian and Turkish empires again, so it turns to the EU and NATO, where it can have a say on what happens (primarily by joining forces with other small countries that have similar interests. Physical geography still matters hugely but it’s hard to take his commentary seriously if he doesn’t at least acknowledge this factor.
@@juniorjames7076 I agree with your point on NATO, disagree on EU, EU is nothing without money from Germany, also as a Balkanoid myself, to think we want anything to do with Turkey is laughable, they are our biggest enemy (historically speaking)
@juniorjames7076 - The EU does not really require US money to survive. As for NATO you are only half right. If the US leaves, NATO would lose roughly about half of its power. That said even half of NATO is still a gigantic military power.
The US and NATO have survived, and they are incrementally taking down Russia. Turkey benefits, and is playing all sides. Look how they got the Israelis to aid Azerbaijan to challenge Armenia. Deal with reality not your hates.
@@JUAN_OLIVIER Without the US, Nato would lose about 80% of it's ability to project power beyond national borders. Take away Britain and her former colonies, and that would be 90%. The EU _does_ have the economic muscle to rebuild military power comparable to China or even the US, but that would take 20 years and involve a lot of coordination difficulties. Still, even without any of the English speaking countries, the EU is significantly stronger than Turkey and probably Russia too, at least in a conflict within Europe.
I did not read the book, but George Friedman predicted a superpower alliance, consisting of Turkey, Poland, and Japan, by 2050. From what I understand, not adversarial to the US, but potentially a peer superpower. Interesting collection of nations, but all three definitely have military, and, with the exception of Japan, Strong local economic opportunities. Would love to hear your thoughts on his predictions. Great video. Thanks! By the way, Turkey is one nation I think the US should make every effort to stay closely allied to, and maybe even help broker an agreement between them and Israel. I can definitely see Turkey as an emerging superpower in a couple decades.
@@Ablequerq I think there was a potential. Risks are not the same as predictions. Japan was stagnating. So if they wanted a war, the 90s would have been the right time. I believe it was forbidden for Japan to have a big army until the 90s. Today, Japan is a close US ally. If they go to war, they will be allies.
As long as it continues to maintain close relations with the West, especially Israel, represented by America and Europe, let alone becoming a superpower, this will not bring peace, happiness, success or prosperity to Turkey.
So where did Americans come from then!? Stop being a hypocrite. It is illogical for a dinosaur to come and claim land from the land where you have lived for a thousand years.
I’m Turkish and this was one of the best and the most objective commentary about a very wide and complicated history/geography in the world. Thank you!!
Split off from the Mongol hordes??.. Moreover, in the 1200s.... The video loses it from the beginning. Damn biases.. :)) Ne objektifi bacım. Tüklerden Moğol sürülerinden ayrılanlar diye bahsediyor. Hem de 1200 lerde.. Baştan belli saçmalık..
Thanks Peter. Would be interesting to hear you do a video on the Turkish economy and currency. It seems that the Turkish Lira has been devaluing ever since I can remember. It has to stop sometime right?
@@amyiyenwhat do you suppose Erdogan has been thinking about the economy after all these years? I don’t remember Turkey’s Econ being that bad when he took over to be only going downhill ever since… 25/20yrs ago I was thinking Turkey was about to burst into a new level of economic growth as it “westernized” its businesses and economy… You know, growing judicial/contractual security, better fiscal/auditing controls, reduction in crime/corruption… But did THAT not happen… At all… I was hoping Turkey would be a successful model to other Islamic nations showing you can westernize on key elements without secularizing, which is a true fear for most Islamic nations… It seems so to me at least… 😓💔💔
@@sw6155 Turkey had huge inflation in the past too. There are several factors why they have inflation. The primary reason is bad economic policies. When Erdogan started to become truly authoritarian, he fucked up the economy.
I´m Turkish who visited most of Balkan countries and cant agree more of that Balkan part. Turks have an strong influence in the Balkans that surprises even me.
@@alpddar2518 Turkish ruling party is also at fault. They have a discourse that belittles Turks from Balkans and even implying that they are not really Turkish. (Bir de Osmanlıcı geçinirler sorsan) Moreover, while Greeks and Armenians play the victim and their world revolve around this victimhood , we Turks never talk about what happened to Turks in Balkans. ...
@@alpddar2518 Anatolia is our homeland, not Balkans. We just have an influence there but not as Germans have. About the Greek word... Our a lot of city names have greek roots not just continent "Anadolu". So... İkiniz de saçmalamışsınız.
"Turks have strong influence in the Balkans" Ofcourse millions of Turks been living here for centuries. We may be living in the Balkans but we are turks. Kept our traditions, language and religion for centuries. Dare I say even more Turk than the Turks living in Türkiye.
The Turks haven't split from the Mongols... They were in Anatolia 200 years before Genghis Khan was born and they had many empires before the Mongols. You should research for the Gokturks, Kyrgyz khanate, Uighur khanate etc.
@@SacClass650 They did not break off from the Mongols in the 1200s. The Seljuk Turks established themselves over a century before the rise of the Mongols, and were effectively defeated by the Khwarezmians (sic) who themselves were most famous for being conquered by the Mongols. The rump Turkish states fought amongst themselves, with the Turks led by the house of Osman becoming pre-eminent, before themselves also being crushed by the Mongols, only rising back up after the Mongols collapses. In short: saying the Turks broke off from the Mongols is like saying the Poles broke off from the Russians. Wildly wrong, as anyone with passing familiarity of the topic would know, but just close enough to be confusing.
His not making a "Where did Turks come from facts history" video. do you know how long it will take, look how long it took you to write what you think the history of Turks are, which you couldnt be any more inaccurate and wrong. His making a "Whats going on in the Geopolitics world today" video, which is very refreshing to see, not just an Amerian, but anyone online, to understand, not just Turkeys geopolitics, but whats going in the geopolitics of the whole area. Hence it seems like you actually missed the opportunity to maybe learn something usefull, while you were trying to school him and prove him wrong, you totally missed the point, like most typers of comments on here.@@CMVBrielman
I like everything of this video !!! the background , the language , the hiking movement ....the best geopolitics video I've ever seen besides not having maps and all that kind of stuff ,Perfect !
The only plausible and true way for us the Turks is to form a Turkic Union, enable the Middle Corridor and provide a geogeaphy of peace for all those willing to join in, as well. This will do the world tons of good.
Actually, Turks and Mongols are two separate races like Germans and French. They shared a common region for a long time and have similar characteristics. Also, Turks came to Anatolia before Mongols didn't even united and invade most of the world. They came to Mid-East first as mercenaries and military commanders. In time they found their own kingdoms which has a Turkic dynasty and multi-ethnic subject. This formula always worked everywhere Turks went outside their heartland Central Asia and Siberia. For example, Mamluks in Egypt, Safavids in Iran, Mughals in India etc. The last and true heir of the Roman Empire was also Ottomans and they ruled a huge and such a complex region for 600 years. After the end of empires age, young Turkiye born from the ashes of the now once mighty Ottoman Empire. Though, this didn't came cheap for Turks. They lost a lot of people and land to stay independent as always. If there is one thing Turks cannot ignore is their sense of pride. These people can forget many malice against them and usually very hospitable, but they quickly get mad when they were insulted and fight to dead for their nation.
Franks are a German tribe first of all, not too much difference between them. Mongol word first mentioned in 840 AD, they were the part of same budun(nation). You can't expect Peter to know Huns,Gokturks,Avars,... Just enjoy the other parts.
As a Turk, I would like to clarify some ideas from my own perspective, Turks, currently having economical issues, also, we have a refugee problem, current government Managing country since 2001 and 50% of Turkish Ctizens Don’t want Erdoğan, but each Election However he won. Final conclusion, most of Turkish ctizen Has good family relations we love each other we care About each other And we protect each other, and we are standing on the same line on the same way with Ataturk’s World Perspective: Peace in country peace in world. we don’t want to Conquer any land, We just want to protect our land and live in peace. And our door is open to all tourists from the world. Turkish people, 70% Muslim, 25% deist/agnostic/ateist, 4,5% Christian, 0,5% Jewish and others. We don’t like drugs, Most of us don’t use drinks with alcohol. We show respect to every individual, especially Respect to police And army forces, We see them as hero. In our country crime rates are very low if you compare with the rest of the world. Turkey is the home of too many people escaped from the war from Ukraine from Russia from East Europe, etc.
No mention in this talk about Erdoğan's domestic economic policies. Those have raised enough eyebrows (and inflation rates) within Turkey and beyond for that particular topic to require at least some sort of commentary.
Their economy is about to collapse and it’s a blessing for Turks otherwise that crazy guy would drag the Turkish army into the Gazza conflict and bring the country to it’s knees
Possibly. At any rate, the birthrate in Turkey, while significantly better than, say, Russia's, is still below replacement level. This is yet another topic that could have been addressed, especially given that birthrates in Arab countries are, on average, higher than replacement level - which would complicate any Turkish influence in those countries.@@அவானிஉயர்ந்தது
You’re right about Turkey’s economy, but this is a short YT vid, not a college course. Also PZ typically focuses on geopolitics and upcoming economic events, not the current state of an economy.
Touché. But I simply don't see how Turkey - or, indeed, any nation state - can exert significant power beyond its borders unless its economy is in good order (well, perhaps Iran proves me wrong on that point, but I would imagine that Iran has incurred heavy costs of one sort or another). So Zeihan's points presuppose a bit too much, at least for the time being.@@SignalCorps1
Turkey is the most interesting one, because they are the most successful at becoming a regional power in the black sea. Usually the United States will not tolerate such a rise in power.
Why wouldn't US tolerate an ally growing stronger?? Turkey's power has been backed by US all the way until maybe the past decade when Erdogan started acting a little ambivalent.
The evidence proves you wrong. Japan is a very strong country and it is a US ally. The US would be only against a strong country, if that country was able to challenge it or invade it. Today, no country can invade the US. Mexico is probably best position to invade the US, but they are still cooperating very closely.
@@devalapar7878 LOL, I get what you're saying, but if Mexico "invaded" a single border town, several Marine divisions would land in Veracruz a couple of days later and within 48 hours Mexico City would be captured and the government would collapse. :-)
@@devalapar7878 Oh, no, in general I would agree with that, in my view about 9/10 of the problem most Americans have with playing "Team America: World Police" is due to the fact (and for most of our allies, it's definitely fact rather than perception) that they simply haven't been carrying their weight, providing gold-plated social benefits to their populations while cutting their defense budgets to the bone. After close to 80 years of the same excuses, it gets old. How is an American politician supposed to explain to his voters, thousands of whom probably filed for medically-induced bankruptcy in just the past year (statistically it's a near certainty) that he needs to pony up to keep Ingmar and Wladislaw free when he's one missed paycheck from oblivion at any moment in time? Seems a bit unfair when the guys getting the protection are so well-off. And in many cases we bent over backwards to give a local ally a HUGE leg up on the competition--e.g. the Afghan provisional government had more than enough material to smash the Taliban, it just didn't have the heart or will to actually fight, or the South Vietnamese, who were similarly left armed to the teeth but who fell seemingly in an instant. Why help people who refuse to help themselves?
We didnt got split of from mongols btw. They pushed us away much like Huns did to Germans. We had many empires like Seljuks. Most mongols by 1400's got Turkified like Golden Horde
One small correction, in theory cargo can get in and out of Black Sea via R-M-D canal in Germany, but tat would only be limited to barges and possibly certain boats, but some of the boats that can cross R-M-D can perhaps operate in coastal waters as well. But the route is much longer and much slower than through Bosporus. It almost look like Europe should focus on canals again.
There is also rail, which while being a bit more expensive than cargo world is also safer. And at least for now, the EU does have a sufficently strong navy that they would be able to secure much of their own shipping at least in the Med and the Atlantic (possibly globally), unless they somehow ended up at war with the US. For Russia or Turkey it might be easier to trade with the EU or China and let THEM handle trade from there. One thing is for sure. If the US goes into full turtle mode, SOMEONE will fill most of the void left behind. As long as there are no wars between current EU members (or with Britain or the US), the EU will have to protect their trade routes. They depend way too much on importing raw materials to ignore them.
11:45 "When it comes to the Romanians and the Bulgarians they realize that there aren't a lot of other options" (besides the US, Russia and Turkey). Er, aren't Romania and Bulgaria meant to be member states of the European Union?
The EU is a big international player with power, influence and military capability. Until it isn't. If either France or Germany decide this isn't working for them any more, it's "seeya boys, you're on your own!"
Yes but is the EU really a military power? In a bad situation would EU help? Not to mention that both Romania and Bulgaria are connected to the rest of the EU through Hungary, which does whatever Putin wants. So, yeah... Turkey is much closer and safer.
Peter lists a fairly accurate list of the issues that concern Turkey but misses on order of whats most important for Turkey. I’ll try to give a quick summary, by far the most important for Turkey is not to allow a so called Kurdish state in northern Iraq and Syria that would actually have a terror group as a regime not much as an actual Kurdish state. This is an existential issue for the Turkish state that is worthy of a war with anyone including the US, which they have been already been fighting through proxies on US side. Next is in the Aegean sea with Greece’s insistence on the border and maritime rights of the islands and this would not be an issue if Greece accepted actual international laws that are already in place. There’s also a precedence for Turkeys thesis between England and France. Other than these two, other issues are small and not so much a threat as long as existing international treaties are upheld. Turkey doesn’t have any ambitions of expanding territory and if existing maps are not changed, Turkey becomes the central hub for a large amount of trade between east and west, especially for energy. This is all they are trying to protect. I’ll stop here as I don’t want to get into the plans of other countries, especially worthless Iran.
Have you heard what Erdoğan has said? They want to recreate the Turkic states. Even that TB2 guy was saying they have lost centuries because of backward thinking. They are setting up military bases in far of places like Somalia.
Can I ask you a question? Is there a chance Turkey accepts a Kurdish state in northern Iraq Syria if it wasn't run by a terror group? Or if the terror group would denounce violence/claims on Turkish territory a bit like how the IRA became a political party?
@@maartenvanleeuwen4481 Theres already a Kurdish autonomous region as part of federal Iraq, how willingly rest of Iraq accepted this is a different matter, but Turkey established diplomatic relations from day one. Turkey will not tolerate another made up “state” in the region.
@@Wasengenyie have you heard of European Union? Union of Turkic states makes much more sense! Turkey doesn’t have a single uninvited military base anywhere, including Somalia. Turkish military brings stability to where ever they are.
this leaves out 1 that turkey is having a severe economic crisis it's at war fighting syrians and kurds in border areas it has occupied this report also does not cover turkey's demographic future? which is usualy of main importance to Zeihan's predictions
Turkey's demography is superb! He said that many times. Turkey's birthrate dropped below 2.1 in 2010. They had a linear decline in the decades before. So they have a great demography and 60 years time before they face issues. Also the Turkish culture is different. Turks live together with their families. So they don't need to be as rich as Europeans to solve the pension problem. It is just a different culture!
I seem to get the impression that your advocating the option of Turkish Imperialism?... Is this wise ?...isn't the age of Empire over or have we come full circle?...
Coming full circle I don't know if he was advocating for it, more like saying what a potential path is (or what the leadership thinks a potential path is)
As a Turk, I believe the Turkish-Israeli dispute is a big lost opportunity, especially since most of the common Turkish public is anti-Palestinian due to the heritage of Arab revolt. Considering the founders of Israel were the Ottoman Jews after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and how both the Ottoman Empire and the early Turkish Republic always rescued Jews from European oppressions, there isn't any historical bad blood either. Türkiye as the region's strongest land & naval power could easily provide Israel the security guarantees they would otherwise lack. Excluding airpower Israel doesn't have a really powerful military, they struggle in unconventional warfare against militias for months with very high losses, especially in urban settings, while the Turkish military secures victories in days with minimal casualties in similar settings as seen in Northern Syria & Iraq. Turkish military is a force built to face modern conventional militaries, and even great powers such as Russia. Meanwhile, the Israeli military is built to deter rag-tag unprofessional, and untrained Arab militaries, as well as armed militias. While Türkiye provides security guarantees in the Middle East and the Mediterranean Sea, Israel could easily provide diplomatic support which Türkiye needs. Unfortunately, Turkish diplomacy has been at an all-time low recently, resulting in us getting bogged down in Syria, getting sanctioned for fighting designated t-e-rr0-rist organizations, getting sour relations with the EU for blocking literal Russian expansion in Libya, and a weaker position in the East. Med. crisis despite having a more powerful military. Israel, with its vast diplomatic network and lobbies inside the United States & European countries, could provide the much-needed assistance. It is sad to see a pro-Arab Islamist government in Türkiye, as well as a portion of anti-Turkish European Ashkenazi Jews in Israel running this possibility. If only a secular nationalistic government secures power in Türkiye, and if only more Turkish-friendly Sephardic Jews gains more influence in Israeli governance, then both countries could secure much needed cooperation.
It's amazing how someone can come and pretend t speak for 80 million people ...at least say you speak for 48% you got in the last election! Which I doubt even all of them agree with you You people are worse enemies of turkey than the pkk and such! 90 years of begging Europe and they still look at you as an internal enemy and look down at you...are you people ever going to learn!! God protects the good people of turkey from you traitors
I lived in Bulgaria for a while and they like Turks about as much as they like Roma. They will trade out of necessity but don't expect an alliance. Bulgaria is reliant on NATO to keep them safe from the Turks. And yes, Turkey is in NATO too but they are the NATO country most likely to go to war against NATO.
Turkey joined NATO back in 1954 in order to protect itself from NATO. Otherwise it would have shared the same destiny with Korea and Vietnam and been invaded and split shared by the US and Soviet Russia. And Turkey took a lot of embarrassing and self-deprecating punches on the chin just to be able stay under the radar on the way to build muscle without getting noticed and ganged up on like it got in the WWI. Roll forward 100 years, things are very different today, though.
Turkey will not go to war against NATO, this I can guarantee that. Because it is very illogical to do so. The best option for Turkey is to remain side-less in the war between the USA + UK + EU + Japan + Australia + Israel VS China + Russia + Iran + India + Brazil + South Africa.
@nancyd2240 videos can be educational if you’re watching how to fix your snowblower or something. Just about all political videos are propaganda to influence your opinion. There are always multiple interested sides, some fairly, some rightfully, some legitimately but not all. Educated, is having an understanding of all sides and forming your own opinion.
Hey Peter looks like yr hiking on Green Mountain in Lakewood Colorado. Tore up my knee there 3 years ago just walking down the jeep trail to the Rooney Rd parking lot. Love yr videos!!
history is real. American history is hardly a rosy tale. especially by exploiting the natural resources of Native Americans.. Love and respect from Turkey
Shout out to Japan thank you for keeping United States steel open and running while our government was trying to completely shut him down in my area of Pittsburgh in the Mon valley we still have three mills left and it is great to see that you guys are going to upgrade and spend billions of dollars upgrading the three mills in the Mon valley opening more jobs and growth thank you Japan
@@j.langer5949 Most steel used in the US is recycled. US Steel makes new steel, a product with an ever-shrinking customer base in the US. It's not hard to see why it ran into problems.
I second the comment above.. Turkey already has a huge production of clothing for example. There also a huuuge amount of turks in the EU so.. Not the same as Mexico/USA but similar
Peter, Thank you for your videos. Since I started following ( books, youtube etc).. i have become more worldly informed in a realistic , truthful manor. I truly appreciate you. Please know, you are making the world a better place just by being you.
10:32 if you re talking about conquering Romania and Bulgaria (and not forming an alliance like Nato), I remind you that these countries have the Carpathian mountains which makes them really hard to punch through- its much easier for them to defend then others like Turkiye to attack. They are also Nato countries which means they have Nato equipment like Patriots and lots of Himars. And I'm sure you heard of the B9- Bucharest9 which is an alliance of 9 countries including Poland- which will be a major powerhouse of a military soon. And Romania also has 1,000 of permanently deployed french personnel at Cincu military base in the center of the country plus 4,000 US permanently deployed at Kogalniceanu airbase along with the US global defense shield at Deveselu base which shoots down everything including ICBMs
Unless you're Russia (in fact even if you are Russia), conquest isn't a viable option any more, especially countries that have connections to the EU, NATO, or other international organizations with muscle. It's more about influence, a slightly more modern version of vassal states whereby you guarantee a smaller country's security, and in return, they do what you tell them, and everyone gets rich.
There is actually a path into Romania from Turkey. They don't need to go over the mountains. Empires leave mountains usually for themselves. Nobody bothered the Kurds in the mountains in the ottoman empire. It is just not worth it. The mountains have no value and are really hard to conquer. It is a trade-off. The value is not high enough to justify the expenses.
@@stephenderry9488 After Russia is trying to genocide ukrainian cultural identity, I doubt anyone is gonna allow themselves to be subserviant that that place. Russias influence is hardly existent, they dont even dare to become a full ally to Iran, in order to not to offend Israel&Co.
Turkey also has to navigate a rather difficult economic situation - which means not pissing off Europe too badly. And though the US is retreating from globalization, it is still important. Pissing off the US - or Israel, almost a US proxy - is a nonstarter for Turkey. These realities make Turkish aggression towards Israel, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania unpalatable. Better to have good relations and healthy trade. I don't see Turkey finding enthusiasm for controlling the Suez. They'd have to take responsibility for Egypt. Not difficult to defend, but food and water while the delta is gradually inundated by salt water looks like a royal headache. Egypt sure could use some help, but I doubt Turkey's economic strength alone could handle those challenges, and aside from the canal, there's not much for Turkey to gain. Europe and the US care little about Armenia. No strategic importance. Turkey already has all the influence it could want in Azerbaijan. But the only thing to gain from Armenia is an economic sink hole and access to Iran. For trade? Not really. They are not friends. For war? Iran would not be fun at all. Armenia is, in the end, irrelevant to Turkey. The only realistic directions are Syria and the Caucuses. Syria lets the Turks expand their pogrom against the Kurds and suppress Iranian proxies, but there won't be an economic return. I expect limited activities from Turkey in Syria. The most attractive direction for Turkish ambition is the Caucuses. They could expand their naval control in the Black Sea, and help along the dissolution of the Russian Federation. They could also gain influence among Turkic peoples all the way to Kazakhstan, which is currently dominated by Russia, with China nibbling at it as Russian influence wanes. Activities in this region probably won't sound alarms in Europe or America; they could pull together a Turkic trading bloc and access lots of mineral wealth without much harming European and American interests. That's where I would go. Turkey really does not have the option to stick to the status quo. Their geopolitical position is very strong, but as an economic unit, Turkey is struggling, and as the former seat of an empire, they feel a need to take a larger role in world affairs. A proud people, the Turks. I don't think the US should discourage Turkish activities in the Caucuses and Eastward. Secular Islam beats the radical sort by a country mile. A strong Turkic bloc should inject some much-needed stability into the region as Russian influence wanes, and even place a check on Chinese communist ambitions. It will also tend to increase Iran's isolation.
in Turkey, we regard both the americans and the EU as treachourus especialy the americans of late, our trade with both of them is less then 150 billion a year, it's not irreplacable
@@turistomer3702 Every nation prioritizes its interests first. And those interests often diverge. Turkey will never receive unqualified support from the EU or the US - and those nations will never receive unqualified support from Turkey. But there are common interests. Cooperation is not only possible, it's inevitable. $150 billion in annual trade is not a small amount. As for replacing it... Possible, for raw materials and commodities. For advanced tech, the US, the EU, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan will be important trading partners for Turkey. Turkey needs them. The dollar value of that trade is not important. Unlocking productivity gains, efficiencies and economic performance depend on having at least tolerably good relations. Which Turkey generally has. There certainly is frictíon. It can't be permitted to spiral out of control.
@@Urgelt in an ideal world and in a conventional way, the state of affairs should be as you describe them above but the world is far from ideal. The americans and some european countries are colluding with the kurdish some of whom don't even Come from Syria, the americans shot down a turkish drone in syria two weeks ago that was targeting installations belonging to the kurdish terrorist organisation the PKK, whom had been terrorising the locals there for sometime, Turkey responded by destroying all eleven oil wells/rigs that were being operated by the kurdish terrorists, we are way past caring what pisses off the americans or the EU, and given how both of them behaved and still do towards the plight of the palestinians, we may call it a day with both the EU and NATO.
@@turistomer3702I get it. The Kudish separatist impetus upsets Turks. Separatists everywhere make for uneasy neighbors and subjects. The Kurds are no exception. Not all Kurds are terrorists, but you would never know it by studying the pronouncements of Turkish leaders. The US has found some Kurdish groups - not all - to be cooperative, rational actors in the fight against ISIS. Turkey sees only Kurds. They're all terrorists. Is that a signal of US treachery? Really? Back Turkey when it attacks Kurdish civilians in Syria? That's the problem, you know. Terrorists are not armies. They mingle. I think perhaps the word 'terrorist' gets thrown around more than is justified. This is not only a Turkish sin. But it happens there. And it justifies atrocities. Which in turn justify retaliation. Hatred snowballs. De-escalation might be good. Negotiation. It worked in Northern Ireland, more or less. The US would really like to see that for Turkey and the Kurds. If you see that as treachery, I am tempted to wear the label proudly. The alternative is genocide.
As a Turkish citizen I was curious after seeing the topic and clicked the video but boy I wish I hadn't. In just the first 20 seconds of the video you already said some ridiculous things with such a confidence 😂
Typical American. With that illiterate boosted self-confidence they tried to shape the world with social engineering and the result is the World today🤷🏻♀️Plus, themselves are a neo-colony.
In this post America world I think the most important question to ask is, who takes our place and what are they going to do? Many of these scenarios assume a relatively benign stable power system where America has stepped back quietly. I see no potential for any of that to happen, exactly zero of a chance. Will we relegate/ingnore/push aside some of our historic responsibilities, probably. Will we cease to be the shining light on the hill? Collectively, we should ask is that what we want.
If you like that, you want to read geography, macrohistory or macroeconomy. My favorite one is Fernand Braudel and his most famous books are the Mediterrenean and the material civilization where he describes how economies develop and why and where.
You won't find to much. Peter studies geography, demographics, history, economic, and security all rolled up into one. Most people take for instance Ian Bremmer are political Scientist. Or you will hear from economist. But many don't combine all different fields into one. So take Poland it sits on the Northern Plane of Europe and has two major gate ways on either side of it country one allowing the French / Germanys to invade and to the east allowing the Russians to invade Poland as well. But these countries would also try and bully Poland, so what is Poland to do? Right you go to the North of Poland and ally yourself with a forgotten European power "Sweden". The are perfect for Poland they cannot bully them and they money and technology that they can invest in Poland. An alliance would be mutually beneficial for both countries.
Peter, After watching you videos regularly and reading your books, my question is this: If American isolationism is going to be the reality of the 21st century, where does that leave the dollar? Despite the American geopolitical advantages, we also enjoy currency hegemony. Doesn't isolationism equat to the death of the dollar as the world reserve currency, and if so - what does that mean for the way of life in the US post Pax Americana?
Well to ensure Dollar's fall you have to first severely break the petro-dollar bond. Even in isolation 🇺🇸 will be the biggest economy. I am not sure that an isolated 🇺🇸 means an 🇺🇸 that doesn't protect it's interests.
How did you find out all this stuff? Europeans, especially the Americans are usually quite ignorant of the geopolitics of Turkey. But one wrong piece of information was we didn't break from the Mongols in the 1200s. The Mongols and Turks come from the same common ancestor, but we aren't the same. We are more like cousins. Turks originally came from the Yamnaya culture around the Black Sea, who migrated East with the Andronovo culture migration. The "Turks" of today are a mixed people. After Yamnaya, we were known as the Eastern Schytians, and our lands were between Crimea and the Altai Mountains. When we migrated further East, we mixed with the Eastern people such as the Chinese, the ancestors of Tibetans (Quang, I believe), and a little with the ancestors of Koreans, around 3000-1000 BCE. Until then, small tribal migrations to the West had happened many times, but the big Turkic migration to the West happened around the 7th century, when we became allies with the Eastern Roman Empire in their war against the Sassanids. After that, we conquered Persia, mixed with them, and eventually the Middle East, mixed with them, and then we went further and finally conquered Anatolia in 1071, and mixed with them too. Then Balkans and North Africa etc. The rest is common knowledge. My own family were Afshar Turks who were raiders in the Balkan region during the Ottoman Empire.
You dont need to explain anything, Peter is making up stories and narratives for US audience :) This is just ¨geopolitic expert¨ show looking world from poor USA perspective. These kind of experts dont exist ;) Divide and conquer, same startegy for too long. I have so much respect for Turkey and Iran and Greece, and Cyprus... for thier people and history. We should live in peace and respect eachother and we will be stronger. Greetings from Serbia.
@@devalapar7878 Turks were never the slaves of Mongols. You seem pretty ignorant of the subject. Do you even know what a Turk is? Please, if you don't know something, don't show off your hubris.
Yeah he likes winning hands. History is written by the winners and that’s all Peter is interested in. Greece is a shrinking population and so he doesn’t care.
@@aldareon He's not wrong. Greece is a joke. Every Greek I have met has been blaming the Turks for every single misfortune their country has. If only they focused more on their own faults than things that occurred over 100 years ago.. or even over 1000 years ago they would be much more advanced. . too bad the Greeks are known to be very stubborn that want no peace in the region.
I wonder how much elevation loss Peter went through while hiking downhill and recording this video - from an alpine area with early-season snow patches down to a well- forested area has got to be pretty good loss in elevation.
Depends where in the world you are, you can get early dustings on mountain tops in Scotland but they can be only a fewhundred yards from the carpark...
I would not say Turks hate Greeks, to be honest I have never met a greek that misbehaved me because I am Turkish or vice versa. But it is a fact that there is a very big problem waiting to be solved about Cyprus and Aegean islands.
Did I miss a video on why Peter seems to think the US is just going to turn completely isolationist? I have seen him mention about Canada and Mexico being key plus staying in strong alliance with Britain and Japan. But why does he think we just turn completely inward? I love the videos just curious as to why he feels that way?
Because that's what the US did in the last 20 years. You don't elect politicians that care about globalism. Globalism in America is a bad word. Do I need to continue? You shrinked your army due to political pressure. Americans had enough of forever wars. Americans don't even want to sell weapons anymore. It is very obvious when you listen to presidents. Obama made one last attempt with the TPP. But it failed! People hated it! Also, Peter Zeihan isn't talking about a complete US removal from the world. The US will be just less interested in the regions. Means, they will no longer provide a security guarantee and will no longer invest outside of the US (except into their closest allies like Australia, Japan, Mexico, and Canada).
Not many people talk about the interest of the Turks in Kosovo and Bosnia, where there are many Muslims; in particular on Kosovo they have a common interest with the Italians, who want Albania to prosper. Albania is a strategic ally in the Balkans for both.
Albanian population is shrinking. People are leaving. The population peaked at 3.3 million in the early 90s. It's now down to 2.8 million, same as it was in 1978. People are relying on remittances. The Chinese own the mines. Albania sold itself to the Chinese.
South of Brazil Mr. Zeihan you are a Very cleaver man. It is very impressive your capacity to call everithing as it is. I am from Houston doing business in South of Brazil. Do you mind talking about Brazil when you have the time? Much obliged. Ivo de Paula
It doesn't just play into the situation, it invalidates Zeihan's analysis. Romania and Bulgaria are not faced with the choice of cozying up to Russia or Turkey, they are committed to the goal of full integration into a united Europe, including eventual adoption of the Euro and a common EU foreign policy.
@@laudermarauder Yes and with NATO gone in case of military problems... do you see Hungary and Slovakia with pro-Putin leaders helping? Or would they actually block any aid passing through? He's talking here about a worst case scenario.. and that's how countries need to think.
@@laudermarauder I don't know where you live. Romania and Bulgaria already work with the Turks. Romania and Bulgaria have very little to say in the EU. But they have leverage over Turkey. So it is a lot more favorable to work with the Turks and be in the EU. Just imagine if Turkey closed the straights. Bulgaria and Romania would lose half of their exports into the EU.
ปีที่แล้ว +1
Bulgaria and Romania are better connected to Turkey than they do to Europe. Mountains don't allow them to integrate into the EU.
@ The Carpathian mountains and other mountainous areas of the Balkans are not an obstacle to anything in the 21st century. They are tourist attractions that are interlaced with highways and railways. The EU is financing the development of Romania and Bulgaria's infrastructure.
Actually, a possible disintegration of Russia would harm Turkey because the West would attack in any form to disintegrate TR as well. The conflict between RUS and West is beneficial to TR - that happened in the wake of WWI. Btw, TR did not emerge in Erdogan’s era. It enlarged by annexing Hatay in 38 and defended Turkish Cypriots in 74.
Entertainer. Take current events, mixes with some popular history, writes a very shallow but hyperbolic monologue, memorizes it and then repeats it with a delivery that makes it appear as if it is from an authority. He is ... entertaining.
The overall premisse of Americans making the Turks less relevant is flawed, to say the least. The Age of Discovery, in the late 1400's was motivated by the desire of Europeans to reach India without having to deal with the Turks: their strategic decadence started there, when Portugal reached Calicut, not in the XX century.
I nearly gave up on this when I heard "split off from the Mongol hordes" - the Turks arrived in Anatolia about two centuries before the Mongols! I'm glad I didn't, though, as it's actually a very perceptive analysis. the only thing that is perhaps lacking is the factor that, as in many other countries, Turkish foreign policy is very much for the benefit of the domestic market. This is particularly true of relations with Greece and Israel, where a certain amount of sabre-rattling goes down well with the voters but is rarely allowed to get in the way of economic cooperation.
Thanks for tjin balanced review. In case you are interested in Ceyhan is pronounced as Jay-Han there is no break between words and Han is pronounced as in Han Solo. Regarding Erdogan bringing back Ottoman spirit, before him there was already a new strategy being developed for east-med first Turkish designed corvette Milgem was part of it . Many of problem Turkey is facing today could have been avoided with delicate handling. Anyway for most Turks the main issues are Agean sea, Syria with northern iraq and east,-med closely following.Despite all domestic rhetoric commercial ties with Israel is as strong as ever. I agree that there are not much issues with Bulgaria and Romania. For Iran i want to remind that Turkish-iran border is one of the most stable in the world and almost no change happened for centuries and no war between the nations. Of course majority of this time a turkic dynasty was in power in Iran and not the mullah regime. Still i doubt Turkey would join a fight against Iran except to support Azerbaijan if it was attacked.
@ZeihanonGeopolitics Peter, what are your thoughts on the relationships and competitions between NATO members in the post-American world? You've mentioned on numerous occasions the upcoming scramble for influence/control and access to resources in the Mediterranean region, with the French and the Turks being the biggest players. I would assume that their national interests would at some point come into conflict. Will their links/alliance through NATO help lessen those tensions? Could we see a potential military conflict between NATO members? Or would the US shut down anything before it kicks off?
My dad was a Korean Conflict veteran, purple heart, saved by divine intervention and a M.A.S.H. unite. He had great respect for the Turkish soldiers he briefly interacted with.
Did he meet Hawkeye or Klinger?
@@blokeabouttown2490 lost his right eye, lost a lot of his hearing, had over 1000 open wounds a couple weeks later. Don't think he was conscious enough to recognize any characters, but he did like the TV show.
Kiwis have a lot of respect for Turks after Gallipolo in ww1 in which Brittish command sent them and Australians to the wrong place where they got slaughtered up against the cliff face and High dune hills from the sea landing. But also in bonding after the war as civilians rather than empires clashing.
why be rude and disrespectful? @@grrrbrrr9053
@@grrrbrrr9053 hmm, based on your comment history, is there any reason you live on videos that mention Turkey? Might be based on your own ethnicity perhaps?
It’s pretty obvious that the Central Asian countries need a Turkic alliance. The latest issue with Russian comments on annexing Uzbekistan demonstrate the need for these countries to organize a defense alliance to replace CSTO, that is, if they don’t want to completely fold into a Chinese umbrella, which is just as injurious as a Russian one.
Organization of Turkic States is slowly evolving into an economic and security union, the countries do not want to go super fast with this because they dont want to spook Russia and China. So it will take another 20 years to complete that
A Turkic alliance would be welcome; but as you allude to, Russia will want to assert itself in it. For good or ill. Eurasianism is the most developed political philosophy pertaining to pan-Turkic movements, and it is a Russian philosophy. Turkey's awakening to its _Turkic_ antecedents is relatively recent (19th cen.), for most of their history, the Ottomans used "Turk" as a pejorative for their Turkic brethren.
Whereas Russia has been more accepting of the role Turkic peoples have made in the development of their nation.
@@SacClass650 Russia was more accepting of Turkic tribes? Do you read history?
@@devalapar7878 Yes, I am well read. Russia has been _relatively_ more accepting of Turkic peoples historically, with widespread acknowledgment of the role that they played in the formative years of Rus'. This has resulted in a popular and extensive political philosophy called Eurasianism.
Notwithstanding the early wars; and later, the pogroms under Stalin.
@@SacClass650Don't try to make a perception campaign in vain. It was not my grandfather who forcibly deported Tatars, Turkıcs and Caucasian people from the Caucasus, Crimea and many other geographies. We only have 5 million Turkish citizens and kinsmen of Tatar origin who were deported at various times under Russian domination.
Refreshing to see an American who is very well versed in the Turkish geopolitics. Great video ❤
I guess it is the Colorado mountains. Political pundits in DC are mainly stuck between potomac river and its foggy weather.
🚅 don't you all enjoy railroad
🚈 trams, trains etc are just so cool
🚞 take a ride in my ''transportation'' folder :)
He is literally not. I am Turkish and it took him 20 seconds to spread his first misinformation in this video and there are countless misinformation in the rest of the video too
I have lived in Turkey for about 7 years doing my postgraduate there. I speak fluent Turkish... I am from Somalia and the Turkish military and business are already in Mogadishu and Hargeisa.
That’s not a good thing bro 💀
What's the not so good part?@@Somalia133
@@Somalia133 It is a good thing, because Turkey doesnt invade or took her imperalism to Somali. It is a win-win strategy for both countries.
Merhaba Somalili dostum,İstanbuldan selamlar.❤️
@@ilbilgehatun278teşekkürler dostum
It was amazing to listen, as a Turk I couldn’t agree more on these scenarios. I just came across with your channel and really amazed by your knowledgr!
i love how you are millions of miles better educated about turkey and surrounding countries than our own people who lives in the country... very interesting video sir keep the good work up!
Another thing to bear in mind is Turkey has kept shipbuilding expertise. OK, they are for yachts including superyachts. But they have a tax-free (or so low as to be functionally meaningless to the state) shipbuilding region and they are enormously successful and respected. My point is the SKILLS and SHIPYARDS to build naval vessels, well, it's not starting at zero.
Such skills are well underappreciated in the globalized world.
Do you have the skills to equip these ships with anything more than dumbfire artillery pieces? Can you produce advanced weapons systems domestically and at a sufficient number to outfit multiple modern warships simultaneously?
@@Troglodytarum the Turks are very well developed militarily, for the economy. Made extraordinary use of drones. A ship laden with drones would be a terror of the seas. I do take your point (they are not at mil spec) but my point is going from civ spec to mil spec is MUCH shorter training and cost leap than Absolute Zero to mil spec.
Yes@@Troglodytarum
@@Troglodytarum Part of the reason Erdogan is stalling the Nato accension of Sweden is because of the defense industry that Sweden has, which is completly domestic and not dependant on other nations tech. Particularlly the naval sector. Swedish ships have defeated american Aircraft carriers in several war games in the past.
It's not something they'd ever go public with, we know he wants planes from the US aswell, but don't be surprised if Saab happens to open an office in Turkey in a few years.
13 minutes of Peter on Turkey, what a treat!
Turkey for Christmas!
He’s talking lots nonsense
@@nathanolson3135 His "after America" theme is bull.
@@JoeZorzinzeihans take is bull, but the American aftermath is guaranteed...
It’s going to be Türkiye, Russia, and Iran to control Eurasia’s energy and trade
Turk here,
One major aspect you didn't mention is the society, Turkish society is quite polarized due to recent 20 years of politics to the extent that it resembles the US nowadays. A Rep or Dem leadership would change the fabric of the state after 2 decades, and it already has in Turkey. Could always change in the other direction though.
We're going through times of change that's for sure, as some random American dude, good luck out there brotha.
Kolay gelsin from NYC, bro!
I don't think that the CHP will win ans election soon, they are very incompetent even with very high inflation and erdogan economic miss management they've lost so it will continue with the current coalition !
Just asking, isn’t Crimea actually majority ethnic Turkish?
@@paulpierce2051 …think you got Turkish and Tartar mixed up…
I m Turkish and I am amazed by your knowledge about the history and geography of the area
Adam Türkler 1200'lerde Moğollardan ayrıldı dedi videonun başında ben orda koptum
@@ihsan7826 yanlis mi?
@@brrkbtl Türkler 11. yüzyılda Anadoluya girdiğine göre, Moğollardan ayrılmaları 1200'lerden önce olmalı öyle değil mi ?
@@ihsan7826ahh evet bn tarihe dikkat etmedim . Genelde Turks are Mongolians dediklerj icin , en azindan bu ayrımı yapabilmesi impressive 😂
Daha son 20 yılı bilmiyor, 1200 yılı kusur kalsın.
Peter, would love to hear your comments on the Venezuela-Guyana conflict, especially with the British involvement.
Agreed…and that would be more of a US versus Venezuela problem. Maduro wants to pound his drum fiercely in the nightfall of the jungle to keep the shadows at bay. This is one of these festering post-Cold War cold sores. Guyana has such a tiny military. For the UK, the ghost of the Falklands/Malvinas war looms over this dispute because of the sheer economic costs of projecting any significant military force to the region. The US would have to step in for Guyana, and the US - Venezuelan relations are in a bit of a thaw, altho a shallow thaw. Brazil is also engaged on the borders there, but they are so preoccupied internally and face their own logistical challenges in moving any substantial military forces thru the Amazon into the remote tepui country. Border conflicts between Venezuela & Columbia with their simmering narco/guerrilla insurgencies is another post-Cold War slow boil.
British involvement? Sending one small warship to take part in naval exercises barely constitutes involvement from the British. It's American assurances the Gyanese are relying on.
As a Turk, I'd say 100% of the things you say is culturally and geopolitically very well understood, well defined and beautifully told. Thank you for that.
LÜTFEN herkes gerçekleri gösteren bir 'dosya' yapsın kanalında, nasıl mı? Bak anlarsın.
Sonra başkalarınında aynısını yapmasını isteyebilir benim şu an yaptığım gibi.
Ve 'dosya' hazır olduğunda, kalabalık yorumlara bir yorum atın, kanalınıza baktıracak nitelikte. Bu şekilde diğer 'dosyalar da' gözleri önlerinde oluyor.
Bir kişi üç kişiyi etkilese, milyonlar, milyarlar oluruz.
As a Turk there's quite a few inaccuracies (geostrategically) I would disagree with.
The narrative is dry just like the meat of turkey bird.
@ESKiTUFEK1 :) adres karıştırdın sanırım. Yukarıda ki msjımda hindi etinin yavanlığından bahsediyorum.
@ESKiTUFEK1 Ülkemin adını yanlış yazanlara benim devamlı yolladığım (kendi) yazım aşağıdadır:
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Heres something you may find interesting. :)
The name of my country has nothing to do with the interesting and delicious bird ''turkey''......
.....but the name of the bird does have a connection with the name of my country, let me explain. :)
Name of my country has always been Türkiye, it's been known as such since around the 1200's.
The name it self has a suffix, '' -iye '', that is Turk-iye, where the -iye suffix means 'land of/belonging to',
just like the Latin suffix of '' -ia '', which exists in such country names like
Austr-ia, Austral-ia, Latv-ia, Roman-ia etc etc again meaning 'land of/belonging to'.
Many would remember the country Czechoslovak-ia which changed it's name to Czech Republic and a few years ago changed that to Czechia (that is Czech-ia).
The Latin suffix -ia probably originates from Turkish -iye as Turkish is much older, ancient Turkish been over ten thousand years old.
Spelled in different languages in different ways to phonetically resemble '' Türkiye ''
we got various spellings like;
Turquía (in Spanish),
Turchia (in Italian),
Turquie (in French) and
Turkey (in English)
all trying to resemble the pronounciation of ''Turk-ia'' thus Turkiye.
Mind you this was way before the animal we currently know as 'turkey'' was found by the europeans when they explored the north americas. The bird was first sent to europe from north americas in the year 1519, so up until that point there was no bird named 'turkey'....
...they came across the bird and thought it was a specie of the fowl/chicken they had been buying from the country of Turkiye at the time, so they named the bird ''Turkey Fowl'' meaning ''Turkish Chicken''.....
....just like how a dog breed is known as German Shepherd (because it's from Germany), American Bulldog, British Terrier, Greek Harehound etc etc.
In time you don't get to call the Greek Harehound as simply as ''Greek''; or you don't call the British Terrier as ''British''; or the German Shepherd as ''German'', but in time the Turkish Fowl started to be called just ''Turkey'' and later ''turkey'', and has been going on for hundreds of years.
Now in modern times, this is causing confusion, especially when we have people across the world unable to point to their own country on the map, this ''confusion over the naming'' needed to be corrected.
So my country decided to rectify this confusion that has been going on for so long and corrected the name to Türkiye, which it always was. Basically we didn't change the name of our country, we changed the mistake made in the English language. : )
So, there's some tid bit information for you to have a great day, if you read upto this point you have a great night too, ohh just have a wonderfull life. : )
Best wishes. ;)
Ülkemin adını yanlış yazanlara benim devamlı yolladığım (kendi) yazım aşağıdadır:
----------------------------------------------------------
Heres something you may find interesting. :)
The name of my country has nothing to do with the interesting and delicious bird ''turkey''......
.....but the name of the bird does have a connection with the name of my country, let me explain. :)
Name of my country has always been Türkiye, it's been known as such since around the 1200's.
The name it self has a suffix, '' -iye '', that is Turk-iye, where the -iye suffix means 'land of/belonging to',
just like the Latin suffix of '' -ia '', which exists in such country names like
Austr-ia, Austral-ia, Latv-ia, Roman-ia etc etc again meaning 'land of/belonging to'.
Many would remember the country Czechoslovak-ia which changed it's name to Czech Republic and a few years ago changed that to Czechia (that is Czech-ia).
The Latin suffix -ia probably originates from Turkish -iye as Turkish is much older, ancient Turkish been over ten thousand years old.
Spelled in different languages in different ways to phonetically resemble '' Türkiye ''
we got various spellings like;
Turquía (in Spanish),
Turchia (in Italian),
Turquie (in French) and
Turkey (in English)
all trying to resemble the pronounciation of ''Turk-ia'' thus Turkiye.
Mind you this was way before the animal we currently know as 'turkey'' was found by the europeans when they explored the north americas. The bird was first sent to europe from north americas in the year 1519, so up until that point there was no bird named 'turkey'....
...they came across the bird and thought it was a specie of the fowl/chicken they had been buying from the country of Turkiye at the time, so they named the bird ''Turkey Fowl'' meaning ''Turkish Chicken''.....
....just like how a dog breed is known as German Shepherd (because it's from Germany), American Bulldog, British Terrier, Greek Harehound etc etc.
In time you don't get to call the Greek Harehound as simply as ''Greek''; or you don't call the British Terrier as ''British''; or the German Shepherd as ''German'', but in time the Turkish Fowl started to be called just ''Turkey'' and later ''turkey'', and has been going on for hundreds of years.
Now in modern times, this is causing confusion, especially when we have people across the world unable to point to their own country on the map, this ''confusion over the naming'' needed to be corrected.
So my country decided to rectify this confusion that has been going on for so long and corrected the name to Türkiye, which it always was. Basically we didn't change the name of our country, we changed the mistake made in the English language. : )
So, there's some tid bit information for you to have a great day, if you read upto this point you have a great night too, ohh just have a wonderfull life. : )
Best wishes. ;)
Thanks!
Appreciate you watching! Got any video ideas?
Spent some time in Turkey in a NATO assignment, more years ago than I like to admit, and the influence of religion in Turkey's worldview can not be discounted. While moderate religiously, when compared to Iran, religion is still something that has to be factored into the equation.
Unfortunately, what you say is true, as a 40% secular minority, we experience the pain of this every day!
There is no such thing as moderate Islam.
Maybe because I'm living in a tiny village, I only see the old men and women becoming more religious. The younger generation have turned money into their new deity.....
Bullshit
@@nbansal
I always heard that Turks aren’t religious and don’t even bother fasting during the holy month of Ramadan.
Great analysis
Amazing mic 🎤
One thing Peter does over and over again is forget the role of the EU and NATO. Most member countries of both organisations are very happy with this situation because it gives them a voice and stops them being pushed around by bigger countries (yes this happens still, but within the rules of fair play). There’s no way somewhere like Bulgaria wants to be bounced between the Russian and Turkish empires again, so it turns to the EU and NATO, where it can have a say on what happens (primarily by joining forces with other small countries that have similar interests. Physical geography still matters hugely but it’s hard to take his commentary seriously if he doesn’t at least acknowledge this factor.
NATO (and the EU for that matter) are nothing without US money.
@@juniorjames7076 I agree with your point on NATO, disagree on EU, EU is nothing without money from Germany, also as a Balkanoid myself, to think we want anything to do with Turkey is laughable, they are our biggest enemy (historically speaking)
@juniorjames7076 - The EU does not really require US money to survive. As for NATO you are only half right. If the US leaves, NATO would lose roughly about half of its power. That said even half of NATO is still a gigantic military power.
The US and NATO have survived, and they are incrementally taking down Russia. Turkey benefits, and is playing all sides. Look how they got the Israelis to aid Azerbaijan to challenge Armenia. Deal with reality not your hates.
@@JUAN_OLIVIER Without the US, Nato would lose about 80% of it's ability to project power beyond national borders. Take away Britain and her former colonies, and that would be 90%. The EU _does_ have the economic muscle to rebuild military power comparable to China or even the US, but that would take 20 years and involve a lot of coordination difficulties.
Still, even without any of the English speaking countries, the EU is significantly stronger than Turkey and probably Russia too, at least in a conflict within Europe.
I did not read the book, but George Friedman predicted a superpower alliance, consisting of Turkey, Poland, and Japan, by 2050. From what I understand, not adversarial to the US, but potentially a peer superpower. Interesting collection of nations, but all three definitely have military, and, with the exception of Japan, Strong local economic opportunities. Would love to hear your thoughts on his predictions. Great video. Thanks! By the way, Turkey is one nation I think the US should make every effort to stay closely allied to, and maybe even help broker an agreement between them and Israel. I can definitely see Turkey as an emerging superpower in a couple decades.
Friedman also said that the USA and Japan would go to war in the 1990s, but nothing happened.
@@Ablequerq I think there was a potential. Risks are not the same as predictions.
Japan was stagnating. So if they wanted a war, the 90s would have been the right time.
I believe it was forbidden for Japan to have a big army until the 90s.
Today, Japan is a close US ally. If they go to war, they will be allies.
As long as it continues to maintain close relations with the West, especially Israel, represented by America and Europe, let alone becoming a superpower, this will not bring peace, happiness, success or prosperity to Turkey.
instead of allying us USA likes pesmerghe and PKK and PYD lol little kurdish rebellions, while 15m+ Kurds live in Turkey safely and quite normally
Tell me poland or japan was a superpower before?
The Turks came to Anatolia in 10th century, forming Seljuk Empire. They emigrated from Transoxiama. 3 centuries before the Mongols came to the Region
So where did Americans come from then!? Stop being a hypocrite. It is illogical for a dinosaur to come and claim land from the land where you have lived for a thousand years.
I’m Turkish and this was one of the best and the most objective commentary about a very wide and complicated history/geography in the world. Thank you!!
Was it? Lmao! 😂
@@ledlight1487 You must be the "a" in the lmao.
Split off from the Mongol hordes??.. Moreover, in the 1200s.... The video loses it from the beginning. Damn biases.. :))
Ne objektifi bacım. Tüklerden Moğol sürülerinden ayrılanlar diye bahsediyor. Hem de 1200 lerde.. Baştan belli saçmalık..
@@oguzdrvirus3119 I think he still managed to get along with being somewhat more reasonable not objective but US-centric point of view at best
Thanks Peter. Would be interesting to hear you do a video on the Turkish economy and currency. It seems that the Turkish Lira has been devaluing ever since I can remember. It has to stop sometime right?
It has a long road to go... towards bottom
Its not gonna stop until they raise the rates to around 100% - which is the real inflation figure.
Excessive inflation usually ends with the issue of a new currency.
@@amyiyenwhat do you suppose Erdogan has been thinking about the economy after all these years?
I don’t remember Turkey’s Econ being that bad when he took over to be only going downhill ever since… 25/20yrs ago I was thinking Turkey was about to burst into a new level of economic growth as it “westernized” its businesses and economy… You know, growing judicial/contractual security, better fiscal/auditing controls, reduction in crime/corruption… But did THAT not happen… At all… I was hoping Turkey would be a successful model to other Islamic nations showing you can westernize on key elements without secularizing, which is a true fear for most Islamic nations… It seems so to me at least… 😓💔💔
@@sw6155 Turkey had huge inflation in the past too.
There are several factors why they have inflation. The primary reason is bad economic policies.
When Erdogan started to become truly authoritarian, he fucked up the economy.
Yesss finally the episode I was waiting for
As a turk, I agree with you on cooperating with the israelis. We would be much stronger as allies.
I´m Turkish who visited most of Balkan countries and cant agree more of that Balkan part. Turks have an strong influence in the Balkans that surprises even me.
Yes Even we Turks are not aware that Balkans are actually very ‘ Turkish’. They made us forget the huge part of history.
Balkans were more Turkish than Eastern Anatolia. Anatolia is a Greek word whereas Balkan is Turkish. Dont forget and dont forgive.
@@alpddar2518 Turkish ruling party is also at fault. They have a discourse that belittles Turks from Balkans and even implying that they are not really Turkish. (Bir de Osmanlıcı geçinirler sorsan) Moreover, while Greeks and Armenians play the victim and their world revolve around this victimhood , we Turks never talk about what happened to Turks in Balkans. ...
@@alpddar2518 Anatolia is our homeland, not Balkans. We just have an influence there but not as Germans have. About the Greek word... Our a lot of city names have greek roots not just continent "Anadolu". So... İkiniz de saçmalamışsınız.
"Turks have strong influence in the Balkans"
Ofcourse millions of Turks been living here for centuries.
We may be living in the Balkans but we are turks. Kept our traditions, language and religion for centuries. Dare I say even more Turk than the Turks living in Türkiye.
The Turks haven't split from the Mongols... They were in Anatolia 200 years before Genghis Khan was born and they had many empires before the Mongols. You should research for the Gokturks, Kyrgyz khanate, Uighur khanate etc.
0:05 Thats a very… unique interpretation of Turkish history.
In what way? Relatively speaking, Turkey has been in the embers of empire, and the West, the architects of their downfall, couldn't care less.
@@SacClass650 They did not break off from the Mongols in the 1200s. The Seljuk Turks established themselves over a century before the rise of the Mongols, and were effectively defeated by the Khwarezmians (sic) who themselves were most famous for being conquered by the Mongols. The rump Turkish states fought amongst themselves, with the Turks led by the house of Osman becoming pre-eminent, before themselves also being crushed by the Mongols, only rising back up after the Mongols collapses.
In short: saying the Turks broke off from the Mongols is like saying the Poles broke off from the Russians. Wildly wrong, as anyone with passing familiarity of the topic would know, but just close enough to be confusing.
@@CMVBrielman Indeed, but your timestamp is confusing, then, as the issues arise prior to 27secs not after!
@@SacClass650 Fair. I paused when he was finished. I’ll edit it to be less confusing.
His not making a "Where did Turks come from facts history" video. do you know how long it will take, look how long it took you to write what you think the history of Turks are, which you couldnt be any more inaccurate and wrong. His making a "Whats going on in the Geopolitics world today" video, which is very refreshing to see, not just an Amerian, but anyone online, to understand, not just Turkeys geopolitics, but whats going in the geopolitics of the whole area. Hence it seems like you actually missed the opportunity to maybe learn something usefull, while you were trying to school him and prove him wrong, you totally missed the point, like most typers of comments on here.@@CMVBrielman
Fascinating Strategic Analysis!!!!!
I can't understand the wisdom behind making this video on Turkey while walking in some hilly area in the US.
Congratulations. Informative as always. How can you keep all that stuff in your head and recall it in a logical easy to follow way?
You needed to do this post on thanksgiving.
I like everything of this video !!! the background , the language , the hiking movement ....the best geopolitics video I've ever seen besides not having maps and all that kind of stuff ,Perfect !
The only plausible and true way for us the Turks is to form a Turkic Union, enable the Middle Corridor and provide a geogeaphy of peace for all those willing to join in, as well. This will do the world tons of good.
Actually, Turks and Mongols are two separate races like Germans and French. They shared a common region for a long time and have similar characteristics. Also, Turks came to Anatolia before Mongols didn't even united and invade most of the world. They came to Mid-East first as mercenaries and military commanders. In time they found their own kingdoms which has a Turkic dynasty and multi-ethnic subject. This formula always worked everywhere Turks went outside their heartland Central Asia and Siberia. For example, Mamluks in Egypt, Safavids in Iran, Mughals in India etc. The last and true heir of the Roman Empire was also Ottomans and they ruled a huge and such a complex region for 600 years. After the end of empires age, young Turkiye born from the ashes of the now once mighty Ottoman Empire. Though, this didn't came cheap for Turks. They lost a lot of people and land to stay independent as always. If there is one thing Turks cannot ignore is their sense of pride. These people can forget many malice against them and usually very hospitable, but they quickly get mad when they were insulted and fight to dead for their nation.
Franks are a German tribe first of all, not too much difference between them. Mongol word first mentioned in 840 AD, they were the part of same budun(nation).
You can't expect Peter to know Huns,Gokturks,Avars,... Just enjoy the other parts.
They came as slave soldiers, not mercenaries. Then they rose to be military commanders.
As a Turk, I would like to clarify some ideas from my own perspective, Turks, currently having economical issues, also, we have a refugee problem, current government Managing country since 2001 and 50% of Turkish Ctizens Don’t want Erdoğan, but each Election However he won. Final conclusion, most of Turkish ctizen Has good family relations we love each other we care About each other And we protect each other, and we are standing on the same line on the same way with Ataturk’s World Perspective: Peace in country peace in world. we don’t want to Conquer any land, We just want to protect our land and live in peace. And our door is open to all tourists from the world. Turkish people, 70% Muslim, 25% deist/agnostic/ateist, 4,5% Christian, 0,5% Jewish and others. We don’t like drugs, Most of us don’t use drinks with alcohol. We show respect to every individual, especially Respect to police And army forces, We see them as hero. In our country crime rates are very low if you compare with the rest of the world. Turkey is the home of too many people escaped from the war from Ukraine from Russia from East Europe, etc.
This guy is BRILLIANT
No mention in this talk about Erdoğan's domestic economic policies. Those have raised enough eyebrows (and inflation rates) within Turkey and beyond for that particular topic to require at least some sort of commentary.
Their economy is about to collapse and it’s a blessing for Turks otherwise that crazy guy would drag the Turkish army into the Gazza conflict and bring the country to it’s knees
Possibly. At any rate, the birthrate in Turkey, while significantly better than, say, Russia's, is still below replacement level. This is yet another topic that could have been addressed, especially given that birthrates in Arab countries are, on average, higher than replacement level - which would complicate any Turkish influence in those countries.@@அவானிஉயர்ந்தது
You’re right about Turkey’s economy, but this is a short YT vid, not a college course. Also PZ typically focuses on geopolitics and upcoming economic events, not the current state of an economy.
Touché. But I simply don't see how Turkey - or, indeed, any nation state - can exert significant power beyond its borders unless its economy is in good order (well, perhaps Iran proves me wrong on that point, but I would imagine that Iran has incurred heavy costs of one sort or another). So Zeihan's points presuppose a bit too much, at least for the time being.@@SignalCorps1
@@அவானிஉயர்ந்தது😂 no it's not it's growing
Thank you. I have learned a lot from your videos. I wish some of these world leaders would listen to your videos.
Turkey is the most interesting one, because they are the most successful at becoming a regional power in the black sea. Usually the United States will not tolerate such a rise in power.
Why wouldn't US tolerate an ally growing stronger?? Turkey's power has been backed by US all the way until maybe the past decade when Erdogan started acting a little ambivalent.
The evidence proves you wrong. Japan is a very strong country and it is a US ally.
The US would be only against a strong country, if that country was able to challenge it or invade it. Today, no country can invade the US. Mexico is probably best position to invade the US, but they are still cooperating very closely.
@@devalapar7878 LOL, I get what you're saying, but if Mexico "invaded" a single border town, several Marine divisions would land in Veracruz a couple of days later and within 48 hours Mexico City would be captured and the government would collapse. :-)
@@drmwpn Maybe but that doesn't prove your point which was that the US wouldn't allow it's ally to become more powerful.
@@devalapar7878 Oh, no, in general I would agree with that, in my view about 9/10 of the problem most Americans have with playing "Team America: World Police" is due to the fact (and for most of our allies, it's definitely fact rather than perception) that they simply haven't been carrying their weight, providing gold-plated social benefits to their populations while cutting their defense budgets to the bone. After close to 80 years of the same excuses, it gets old. How is an American politician supposed to explain to his voters, thousands of whom probably filed for medically-induced bankruptcy in just the past year (statistically it's a near certainty) that he needs to pony up to keep Ingmar and Wladislaw free when he's one missed paycheck from oblivion at any moment in time? Seems a bit unfair when the guys getting the protection are so well-off. And in many cases we bent over backwards to give a local ally a HUGE leg up on the competition--e.g. the Afghan provisional government had more than enough material to smash the Taliban, it just didn't have the heart or will to actually fight, or the South Vietnamese, who were similarly left armed to the teeth but who fell seemingly in an instant. Why help people who refuse to help themselves?
We didnt got split of from mongols btw. They pushed us away much like Huns did to Germans. We had many empires like Seljuks. Most mongols by 1400's got Turkified like Golden Horde
The worst possible choice is not to choose and be mired in all of the region’s problems. Quite likely.
the best choice is not take control over others but to start controlling ourselves.. we are our own enemy.. dis is what dharma in india teaches us
One small correction, in theory cargo can get in and out of Black Sea via R-M-D canal in Germany, but tat would only be limited to barges and possibly certain boats, but some of the boats that can cross R-M-D can perhaps operate in coastal waters as well. But the route is much longer and much slower than through Bosporus.
It almost look like Europe should focus on canals again.
Any artificial infrastructure has a higher maintenance.
Far Canal!
Provided there is no drought
The RMD canal cannot be compared to an open shipping lane. We are talking even 15% at maximum capacity.
There is also rail, which while being a bit more expensive than cargo world is also safer. And at least for now, the EU does have a sufficently strong navy that they would be able to secure much of their own shipping at least in the Med and the Atlantic (possibly globally), unless they somehow ended up at war with the US. For Russia or Turkey it might be easier to trade with the EU or China and let THEM handle trade from there.
One thing is for sure. If the US goes into full turtle mode, SOMEONE will fill most of the void left behind. As long as there are no wars between current EU members (or with Britain or the US), the EU will have to protect their trade routes. They depend way too much on importing raw materials to ignore them.
11:45 "When it comes to the Romanians and the Bulgarians they realize that there aren't a lot of other options" (besides the US, Russia and Turkey). Er, aren't Romania and Bulgaria meant to be member states of the European Union?
European Union is a dumpster fire
Pete you forgot about Houithis and Hezbelah, virtual extensions of Iran.
Turkiye and Iran are a wash where neither wins.
The EU is a big international player with power, influence and military capability. Until it isn't. If either France or Germany decide this isn't working for them any more, it's "seeya boys, you're on your own!"
The EU is an economic giant but a political and military Gnome 😊
Yes but is the EU really a military power? In a bad situation would EU help? Not to mention that both Romania and Bulgaria are connected to the rest of the EU through Hungary, which does whatever Putin wants. So, yeah... Turkey is much closer and safer.
Peter lists a fairly accurate list of the issues that concern Turkey but misses on order of whats most important for Turkey.
I’ll try to give a quick summary, by far the most important for Turkey is not to allow a so called Kurdish state in northern Iraq and Syria that would actually have a terror group as a regime not much as an actual Kurdish state. This is an existential issue for the Turkish state that is worthy of a war with anyone including the US, which they have been already been fighting through proxies on US side.
Next is in the Aegean sea with Greece’s insistence on the border and maritime rights of the islands and this would not be an issue if Greece accepted actual international laws that are already in place. There’s also a precedence for Turkeys thesis between England and France. Other than these two, other issues are small and not so much a threat as long as existing international treaties are upheld. Turkey doesn’t have any ambitions of expanding territory and if existing maps are not changed, Turkey becomes the central hub for a large amount of trade between east and west, especially for energy. This is all they are trying to protect.
I’ll stop here as I don’t want to get into the plans of other countries, especially worthless Iran.
This is well written. I looked at your profile to see if you publish any videos.
Have you heard what Erdoğan has said? They want to recreate the Turkic states. Even that TB2 guy was saying they have lost centuries because of backward thinking. They are setting up military bases in far of places like Somalia.
Can I ask you a question? Is there a chance Turkey accepts a Kurdish state in northern Iraq Syria if it wasn't run by a terror group? Or if the terror group would denounce violence/claims on Turkish territory a bit like how the IRA became a political party?
@@maartenvanleeuwen4481 Theres already a Kurdish autonomous region as part of federal Iraq, how willingly rest of Iraq accepted this is a different matter, but Turkey established diplomatic relations from day one. Turkey will not tolerate another made up “state” in the region.
@@Wasengenyie have you heard of European Union? Union of Turkic states makes much more sense! Turkey doesn’t have a single uninvited military base anywhere, including Somalia. Turkish military brings stability to where ever they are.
You are very knowledgeable, i very much like your show. Not sure why you don't have a slot on HBO !
Please do Romania, 5% market growth last year, $98 BN in exports last year
this leaves out
1 that turkey is having a severe economic crisis
it's at war fighting syrians and kurds in border areas it has occupied
this report also does not cover turkey's demographic future?
which is usualy of main importance to Zeihan's predictions
Turkey's demography is superb! He said that many times. Turkey's birthrate dropped below 2.1 in 2010. They had a linear decline in the decades before.
So they have a great demography and 60 years time before they face issues.
Also the Turkish culture is different. Turks live together with their families. So they don't need to be as rich as Europeans to solve the pension problem.
It is just a different culture!
I think Peter needs to do hiking tours with a focus on political events. That would be cool.
I seem to get the impression that your advocating the option of Turkish Imperialism?... Is this wise ?...isn't the age of Empire over or have we come full circle?...
Coming full circle
I don't know if he was advocating for it, more like saying what a potential path is (or what the leadership thinks a potential path is)
Haven't you been reading the news lately? The 1700s are back, baby!
Yeah I thought so!..😂 @@juniorjames7076
Some details about Turkey are kinda wrong but overall, the points you made stand well. Very interesting video.
Always interesting. Looking forward to your next book!
As a Turk, I believe the Turkish-Israeli dispute is a big lost opportunity, especially since most of the common Turkish public is anti-Palestinian due to the heritage of Arab revolt. Considering the founders of Israel were the Ottoman Jews after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and how both the Ottoman Empire and the early Turkish Republic always rescued Jews from European oppressions, there isn't any historical bad blood either.
Türkiye as the region's strongest land & naval power could easily provide Israel the security guarantees they would otherwise lack. Excluding airpower Israel doesn't have a really powerful military, they struggle in unconventional warfare against militias for months with very high losses, especially in urban settings, while the Turkish military secures victories in days with minimal casualties in similar settings as seen in Northern Syria & Iraq. Turkish military is a force built to face modern conventional militaries, and even great powers such as Russia. Meanwhile, the Israeli military is built to deter rag-tag unprofessional, and untrained Arab militaries, as well as armed militias.
While Türkiye provides security guarantees in the Middle East and the Mediterranean Sea, Israel could easily provide diplomatic support which Türkiye needs. Unfortunately, Turkish diplomacy has been at an all-time low recently, resulting in us getting bogged down in Syria, getting sanctioned for fighting designated t-e-rr0-rist organizations, getting sour relations with the EU for blocking literal Russian expansion in Libya, and a weaker position in the East. Med. crisis despite having a more powerful military. Israel, with its vast diplomatic network and lobbies inside the United States & European countries, could provide the much-needed assistance.
It is sad to see a pro-Arab Islamist government in Türkiye, as well as a portion of anti-Turkish European Ashkenazi Jews in Israel running this possibility. If only a secular nationalistic government secures power in Türkiye, and if only more Turkish-friendly Sephardic Jews gains more influence in Israeli governance, then both countries could secure much needed cooperation.
Yes but at the begin israel was supporting erdoğan they should support to kemalist now it's too late
It's amazing how someone can come and pretend t speak for 80 million people ...at least say you speak for 48% you got in the last election!
Which I doubt even all of them agree with you
You people are worse enemies of turkey than the pkk and such!
90 years of begging Europe and they still look at you as an internal enemy and look down at you...are you people ever going to learn!!
God protects the good people of turkey from you traitors
Just because you hate the arabs doesnt make the israelis right with what they do to the palestinians
I lived in Bulgaria for a while and they like Turks about as much as they like Roma. They will trade out of necessity but don't expect an alliance. Bulgaria is reliant on NATO to keep them safe from the Turks. And yes, Turkey is in NATO too but they are the NATO country most likely to go to war against NATO.
Turkey joined NATO back in 1954 in order to protect itself from NATO. Otherwise it would have shared the same destiny with Korea and Vietnam and been invaded and split shared by the US and Soviet Russia. And Turkey took a lot of embarrassing and self-deprecating punches on the chin just to be able stay under the radar on the way to build muscle without getting noticed and ganged up on like it got in the WWI. Roll forward 100 years, things are very different today, though.
Turkey will not go to war against NATO, this I can guarantee that. Because it is very illogical to do so. The best option for Turkey is to remain side-less in the war between the USA + UK + EU + Japan + Australia + Israel VS China + Russia + Iran + India + Brazil + South Africa.
@@tarkgundogdu8940 NATO is currently at war with Turkey already. What are you talking about?
@@mahcemIt is NATO which is attacking Turkey not the other way around.
@@tarkgundogdu8940 who said the contrary? Are you sure you really understand what your eyes read?
These videos are excellent. I'm learning so much about geopolitics. Would you consider doing Britain after America? Thank you.
@nancyd2240 videos can be educational if you’re watching how to fix your snowblower or something. Just about all political videos are propaganda to influence your opinion. There are always multiple interested sides, some fairly, some rightfully, some legitimately but not all. Educated, is having an understanding of all sides and forming your own opinion.
What a great executive summary for anyone...
Hey Peter looks like yr hiking on Green Mountain in Lakewood Colorado. Tore up my knee there 3 years ago just walking down the jeep trail to the Rooney Rd parking lot. Love yr videos!!
history is real. American history is hardly a rosy tale. especially by exploiting the natural resources of Native Americans.. Love and respect from Turkey
Shout out to Japan thank you for keeping United States steel open and running while our government was trying to completely shut him down in my area of Pittsburgh in the Mon valley we still have three mills left and it is great to see that you guys are going to upgrade and spend billions of dollars upgrading the three mills in the Mon valley opening more jobs and growth thank you Japan
Why did you get rid of the industry in such a stupid and ill-conceived way?
@@j.langer5949
Because we are stupid
Thank Diaper Joey...he's from Scranton. 😂😂😂
@@j.langer5949 Most steel used in the US is recycled. US Steel makes new steel, a product with an ever-shrinking customer base in the US. It's not hard to see why it ran into problems.
@@j.langer5949common sense
Straight question to Peter: Could Turkey become to the EU, what Mexico has become to the US, in our times of Chinese manufacturing and export decline?
Already it is i beliave.
I second the comment above.. Turkey already has a huge production of clothing for example.
There also a huuuge amount of turks in the EU so.. Not the same as Mexico/USA but similar
Turkish labor is not so cheap compared to eastern EU plus you can add millions of Ukrainian emigrants in the mix.
No. They're not even South Korea, let alone China.
Poland is
What device are you using with this good background filter ? It's amazing
Hey Peter. You forgot to mention the second way at the end. You mentioned the Balkans as one. Then that leaves one more
Peter, Thank you for your videos. Since I started following ( books, youtube etc).. i have become more worldly informed in a realistic , truthful manor.
I truly appreciate you.
Please know, you are making the world a better place just by being you.
10:32 if you re talking about conquering Romania and Bulgaria (and not forming an alliance like Nato), I remind you that these countries have the Carpathian mountains which makes them really hard to punch through- its much easier for them to defend then others like Turkiye to attack. They are also Nato countries which means they have Nato equipment like Patriots and lots of Himars. And I'm sure you heard of the B9- Bucharest9 which is an alliance of 9 countries including Poland- which will be a major powerhouse of a military soon. And Romania also has 1,000 of permanently deployed french personnel at Cincu military base in the center of the country plus 4,000 US permanently deployed at Kogalniceanu airbase along with the US global defense shield at Deveselu base which shoots down everything including ICBMs
Unless you're Russia (in fact even if you are Russia), conquest isn't a viable option any more, especially countries that have connections to the EU, NATO, or other international organizations with muscle. It's more about influence, a slightly more modern version of vassal states whereby you guarantee a smaller country's security, and in return, they do what you tell them, and everyone gets rich.
He's talking about becoming closer alleys
I think he's talking about influence and control. Not so much conquest.
There is actually a path into Romania from Turkey. They don't need to go over the mountains. Empires leave mountains usually for themselves.
Nobody bothered the Kurds in the mountains in the ottoman empire. It is just not worth it. The mountains have no value and are really hard to conquer. It is a trade-off. The value is not high enough to justify the expenses.
@@stephenderry9488 After Russia is trying to genocide ukrainian cultural identity, I doubt anyone is gonna allow themselves to be subserviant that that place.
Russias influence is hardly existent, they dont even dare to become a full ally to Iran, in order to not to offend Israel&Co.
Turkey also has to navigate a rather difficult economic situation - which means not pissing off Europe too badly. And though the US is retreating from globalization, it is still important. Pissing off the US - or Israel, almost a US proxy - is a nonstarter for Turkey.
These realities make Turkish aggression towards Israel, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania unpalatable. Better to have good relations and healthy trade.
I don't see Turkey finding enthusiasm for controlling the Suez. They'd have to take responsibility for Egypt. Not difficult to defend, but food and water while the delta is gradually inundated by salt water looks like a royal headache. Egypt sure could use some help, but I doubt Turkey's economic strength alone could handle those challenges, and aside from the canal, there's not much for Turkey to gain.
Europe and the US care little about Armenia. No strategic importance. Turkey already has all the influence it could want in Azerbaijan. But the only thing to gain from Armenia is an economic sink hole and access to Iran. For trade? Not really. They are not friends. For war? Iran would not be fun at all. Armenia is, in the end, irrelevant to Turkey.
The only realistic directions are Syria and the Caucuses.
Syria lets the Turks expand their pogrom against the Kurds and suppress Iranian proxies, but there won't be an economic return. I expect limited activities from Turkey in Syria.
The most attractive direction for Turkish ambition is the Caucuses. They could expand their naval control in the Black Sea, and help along the dissolution of the Russian Federation. They could also gain influence among Turkic peoples all the way to Kazakhstan, which is currently dominated by Russia, with China nibbling at it as Russian influence wanes. Activities in this region probably won't sound alarms in Europe or America; they could pull together a Turkic trading bloc and access lots of mineral wealth without much harming European and American interests.
That's where I would go.
Turkey really does not have the option to stick to the status quo. Their geopolitical position is very strong, but as an economic unit, Turkey is struggling, and as the former seat of an empire, they feel a need to take a larger role in world affairs. A proud people, the Turks.
I don't think the US should discourage Turkish activities in the Caucuses and Eastward. Secular Islam beats the radical sort by a country mile. A strong Turkic bloc should inject some much-needed stability into the region as Russian influence wanes, and even place a check on Chinese communist ambitions. It will also tend to increase Iran's isolation.
in Turkey, we regard both the americans and the EU as treachourus especialy the americans of late, our trade with both of them is less then 150 billion a year, it's not irreplacable
@@turistomer3702 Every nation prioritizes its interests first. And those interests often diverge. Turkey will never receive unqualified support from the EU or the US - and those nations will never receive unqualified support from Turkey.
But there are common interests. Cooperation is not only possible, it's inevitable.
$150 billion in annual trade is not a small amount. As for replacing it...
Possible, for raw materials and commodities.
For advanced tech, the US, the EU, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan will be important trading partners for Turkey. Turkey needs them. The dollar value of that trade is not important. Unlocking productivity gains, efficiencies and economic performance depend on having at least tolerably good relations.
Which Turkey generally has.
There certainly is frictíon. It can't be permitted to spiral out of control.
@@Urgelt in an ideal world and in a conventional way, the state of affairs should be as you describe them above but the world is far from ideal.
The americans and some european countries are colluding with the kurdish some of whom don't even Come from Syria, the americans shot down a turkish drone in syria two weeks ago that was targeting installations belonging to the kurdish terrorist organisation the PKK, whom had been terrorising the locals there for sometime, Turkey responded by destroying all eleven oil wells/rigs that were being operated by the kurdish terrorists, we are way past caring what pisses off the americans or the EU, and given how both of them behaved and still do towards the plight of the palestinians, we may call it a day with both the EU and NATO.
@@turistomer3702I get it. The Kudish separatist impetus upsets Turks. Separatists everywhere make for uneasy neighbors and subjects. The Kurds are no exception.
Not all Kurds are terrorists, but you would never know it by studying the pronouncements of Turkish leaders.
The US has found some Kurdish groups - not all - to be cooperative, rational actors in the fight against ISIS.
Turkey sees only Kurds. They're all terrorists.
Is that a signal of US treachery? Really?
Back Turkey when it attacks Kurdish civilians in Syria? That's the problem, you know. Terrorists are not armies. They mingle.
I think perhaps the word 'terrorist' gets thrown around more than is justified. This is not only a Turkish sin. But it happens there. And it justifies atrocities. Which in turn justify retaliation. Hatred snowballs.
De-escalation might be good. Negotiation. It worked in Northern Ireland, more or less. The US would really like to see that for Turkey and the Kurds. If you see that as treachery, I am tempted to wear the label proudly. The alternative is genocide.
what a great summary of yesterday, today and tomorrow of my country
..not mentioned, the effect on Turkish (and German) society from the decades long Turkish settler migration into Germany..
As a Turkish citizen I was curious after seeing the topic and clicked the video but boy I wish I hadn't. In just the first 20 seconds of the video you already said some ridiculous things with such a confidence 😂
Typical American. With that illiterate boosted self-confidence they tried to shape the world with social engineering and the result is the World today🤷🏻♀️Plus, themselves are a neo-colony.
Also a Turk here, he basically split out historical facts in those first 20 seconds, even without comments.
Are you going to do 'America - After America'?
The greatest problem of America in a Post America World is doubling its industrial base in five years.
The United States went through a fratricidal civil war and the Great Depression and still came out on top. It can handle whatever is going on now.
In this post America world I think the most important question to ask is, who takes our place and what are they going to do? Many of these scenarios assume a relatively benign stable power system where America has stepped back quietly. I see no potential for any of that to happen, exactly zero of a chance. Will we relegate/ingnore/push aside some of our historic responsibilities, probably. Will we cease to be the shining light on the hill? Collectively, we should ask is that what we want.
South America may have remained in the shadows of history for far too long.
This is what a big part of his book is about, The End of the World is Just the Beginning
Hit 300k today . thanks for the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over last months.started with 8k in February
Exactly Investing rightly today can save you a whole lot of stress in the nearest future
What sources do you use Peter? I’ve literally watched and read everything that you’ve published and now I’m looking for more similar knowledge
If you like that, you want to read geography, macrohistory or macroeconomy.
My favorite one is Fernand Braudel and his most famous books are the Mediterrenean and the material civilization where he describes how economies develop and why and where.
You won't find to much. Peter studies geography, demographics, history, economic, and security all rolled up into one. Most people take for instance Ian Bremmer are political Scientist. Or you will hear from economist. But many don't combine all different fields into one. So take Poland it sits on the Northern Plane of Europe and has two major gate ways on either side of it country one allowing the French / Germanys to invade and to the east allowing the Russians to invade Poland as well. But these countries would also try and bully Poland, so what is Poland to do? Right you go to the North of Poland and ally yourself with a forgotten European power "Sweden". The are perfect for Poland they cannot bully them and they money and technology that they can invest in Poland. An alliance would be mutually beneficial for both countries.
Peter,
After watching you videos regularly and reading your books, my question is this:
If American isolationism is going to be the reality of the 21st century, where does that leave the dollar? Despite the American geopolitical advantages, we also enjoy currency hegemony.
Doesn't isolationism equat to the death of the dollar as the world reserve currency, and if so - what does that mean for the way of life in the US post Pax Americana?
The conflicts that are about to ensue...will guarantee the dollar.
How will it guarantee the dollar?
Well to ensure Dollar's fall you have to first severely break the petro-dollar bond. Even in isolation 🇺🇸 will be the biggest economy. I am not sure that an isolated 🇺🇸 means an 🇺🇸 that doesn't protect it's interests.
you guys have the most liquidated bond and equity market. Whether you isolate or no, the money will end up in american assets, so dollar is safe :)
Good stuff Pete. Thank you. Happy New Year.
Very interesting
How did you find out all this stuff? Europeans, especially the Americans are usually quite ignorant of the geopolitics of Turkey. But one wrong piece of information was we didn't break from the Mongols in the 1200s. The Mongols and Turks come from the same common ancestor, but we aren't the same. We are more like cousins. Turks originally came from the Yamnaya culture around the Black Sea, who migrated East with the Andronovo culture migration. The "Turks" of today are a mixed people. After Yamnaya, we were known as the Eastern Schytians, and our lands were between Crimea and the Altai Mountains. When we migrated further East, we mixed with the Eastern people such as the Chinese, the ancestors of Tibetans (Quang, I believe), and a little with the ancestors of Koreans, around 3000-1000 BCE. Until then, small tribal migrations to the West had happened many times, but the big Turkic migration to the West happened around the 7th century, when we became allies with the Eastern Roman Empire in their war against the Sassanids. After that, we conquered Persia, mixed with them, and eventually the Middle East, mixed with them, and then we went further and finally conquered Anatolia in 1071, and mixed with them too. Then Balkans and North Africa etc. The rest is common knowledge. My own family were Afshar Turks who were raiders in the Balkan region during the Ottoman Empire.
You dont need to explain anything, Peter is making up stories and narratives for US audience :) This is just ¨geopolitic expert¨ show looking world from poor USA perspective. These kind of experts dont exist ;)
Divide and conquer, same startegy for too long. I have so much respect for Turkey and Iran and Greece, and Cyprus... for thier people and history. We should live in peace and respect eachother and we will be stronger. Greetings from Serbia.
Peter didn't say Mongols and Turks were the same. Turks were Mongol slaves. And yes, they fled the Mongols. That's what he is talking about.
@@devalapar7878 Turks were never the slaves of Mongols. You seem pretty ignorant of the subject. Do you even know what a Turk is? Please, if you don't know something, don't show off your hubris.
Great episode. Could you do an episode for Greece too please? :)
Probably not! he thinks Greece is a joke
Yeah he likes winning hands. History is written by the winners and that’s all Peter is interested in. Greece is a shrinking population and so he doesn’t care.
@@aldareon He's not wrong. Greece is a joke. Every Greek I have met has been blaming the Turks for every single misfortune their country has. If only they focused more on their own faults than things that occurred over 100 years ago.. or even over 1000 years ago they would be much more advanced. . too bad the Greeks are known to be very stubborn that want no peace in the region.
@@aldareon How so?
@@nihil_hd1598 video will be too short like 10 sec :)
Fantastic analysis! As an Australian how will the the rise of Indonesia combined with your predictions of US withdrawal impact Australian security?
Australians need to tone it down. Your insecurity is on your self. Indonesians are the world's most friendly people ❤
Thanks Peter
Can you discuss the situation in the southern balkans and what the future holds for them?
Balkans is nothing today. They are declining.
Will you offer a Kindle edition of your new book?
Dude , every video is like a short class. Thanks
I wonder how much elevation loss Peter went through while hiking downhill and recording this video - from an alpine area with early-season snow patches down to a well- forested area has got to be pretty good loss in elevation.
Nah - a couple hundred feet at most .I've walked in the area.
Depends where in the world you are, you can get early dustings on mountain tops in Scotland but they can be only a fewhundred yards from the carpark...
I live about 10 miles from there and am very familiar with that trail. Probably about 500 foot drop in the time the video was made.
Who cares 😂
@@SolaceEasy White ranch in Golden?
Turks used to rule three continents from North Africa to Arabian peninsula to whole Balkans, including Romania and Crimea … until WW1
The collapse began much earlier. The rise of nationalism was a big nail to the coffin of the Ottoman.
I say this with all the love I have for Turkish people and their culture, this is a gross oversimplification
Ottoman was never ruling in those areas. Our main objective was Istanbul and surrounded cities.
@@Lyricsss34 whatt??
@@Lyricsss34magarada mi buyudun ?
I would not say Turks hate Greeks, to be honest I have never met a greek that misbehaved me because I am Turkish or vice versa. But it is a fact that there is a very big problem waiting to be solved about Cyprus and Aegean islands.
Thank you for this video
Did I miss a video on why Peter seems to think the US is just going to turn completely isolationist? I have seen him mention about Canada and Mexico being key plus staying in strong alliance with Britain and Japan. But why does he think we just turn completely inward? I love the videos just curious as to why he feels that way?
Maybe a whole book. 'Disunited Nations'
Because that's what the US did in the last 20 years.
You don't elect politicians that care about globalism. Globalism in America is a bad word. Do I need to continue?
You shrinked your army due to political pressure.
Americans had enough of forever wars. Americans don't even want to sell weapons anymore.
It is very obvious when you listen to presidents. Obama made one last attempt with the TPP. But it failed! People hated it!
Also, Peter Zeihan isn't talking about a complete US removal from the world. The US will be just less interested in the regions. Means, they will no longer provide a security guarantee and will no longer invest outside of the US (except into their closest allies like Australia, Japan, Mexico, and Canada).
Not many people talk about the interest of the Turks in Kosovo and Bosnia, where there are many Muslims; in particular on Kosovo they have a common interest with the Italians, who want Albania to prosper. Albania is a strategic ally in the Balkans for both.
Albanian population is shrinking. People are leaving. The population peaked at 3.3 million in the early 90s. It's now down to 2.8 million, same as it was in 1978. People are relying on remittances. The Chinese own the mines. Albania sold itself to the Chinese.
Thanks for your honesty and also thanks for being who and what you are.
South of Brazil
Mr. Zeihan you are a Very cleaver man. It is very impressive your capacity to call everithing as it is.
I am from Houston doing business in South of Brazil. Do you mind talking about Brazil when you have the time?
Much obliged.
Ivo de Paula
Wonderfull thanks...
You don't mention that Romania and Bulgaria are members of EU, which would also play into the situation I suppose. Also the state of Turkey's economy.
It doesn't just play into the situation, it invalidates Zeihan's analysis. Romania and Bulgaria are not faced with the choice of cozying up to Russia or Turkey, they are committed to the goal of full integration into a united Europe, including eventual adoption of the Euro and a common EU foreign policy.
@@laudermarauder Yes and with NATO gone in case of military problems... do you see Hungary and Slovakia with pro-Putin leaders helping? Or would they actually block any aid passing through? He's talking here about a worst case scenario.. and that's how countries need to think.
@@laudermarauder I don't know where you live. Romania and Bulgaria already work with the Turks.
Romania and Bulgaria have very little to say in the EU. But they have leverage over Turkey. So it is a lot more favorable to work with the Turks and be in the EU.
Just imagine if Turkey closed the straights. Bulgaria and Romania would lose half of their exports into the EU.
Bulgaria and Romania are better connected to Turkey than they do to Europe. Mountains don't allow them to integrate into the EU.
@ The Carpathian mountains and other mountainous areas of the Balkans are not an obstacle to anything in the 21st century. They are tourist attractions that are interlaced with highways and railways. The EU is financing the development of Romania and Bulgaria's infrastructure.
As a Turkish guy, it's one of the most informative speeches about our current geopolitical situation. Nice work.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! (I'm Bulgarian)
There are still lots of Turks in Bulgaria now, no?
dont worry we dont hate balkan people, its the opposite
Part of bulgarians are christian turks lol
Actually, a possible disintegration of Russia would harm Turkey because the West would attack in any form to disintegrate TR as well. The conflict between RUS and West is beneficial to TR - that happened in the wake of WWI.
Btw, TR did not emerge in Erdogan’s era. It enlarged by annexing Hatay in 38 and defended Turkish Cypriots in 74.
zeihan so much more competent walking than world affairs
Peter is a true influencer in the wild
Entertainer. Take current events, mixes with some popular history, writes a very shallow but hyperbolic monologue, memorizes it and then repeats it with a delivery that makes it appear as if it is from an authority. He is ... entertaining.
The overall premisse of Americans making the Turks less relevant is flawed, to say the least.
The Age of Discovery, in the late 1400's was motivated by the desire of Europeans to reach India without having to deal with the Turks: their strategic decadence started there, when Portugal reached Calicut, not in the XX century.
Last time I was this early, Constantinople just fell to the Ottomans…
nice clockwise geopolitical assessment, and excellent scenery
I nearly gave up on this when I heard "split off from the Mongol hordes" - the Turks arrived in Anatolia about two centuries before the Mongols! I'm glad I didn't, though, as it's actually a very perceptive analysis. the only thing that is perhaps lacking is the factor that, as in many other countries, Turkish foreign policy is very much for the benefit of the domestic market. This is particularly true of relations with Greece and Israel, where a certain amount of sabre-rattling goes down well with the voters but is rarely allowed to get in the way of economic cooperation.
Thanks for tjin balanced review. In case you are interested in Ceyhan is pronounced as Jay-Han there is no break between words and Han is pronounced as in Han Solo. Regarding Erdogan bringing back Ottoman spirit, before him there was already a new strategy being developed for east-med first Turkish designed corvette Milgem was part of it . Many of problem Turkey is facing today could have been avoided with delicate handling. Anyway for most Turks the main issues are Agean sea, Syria with northern iraq and east,-med closely following.Despite all domestic rhetoric commercial ties with Israel is as strong as ever. I agree that there are not much issues with Bulgaria and Romania. For Iran i want to remind that Turkish-iran border is one of the most stable in the world and almost no change happened for centuries and no war between the nations. Of course majority of this time a turkic dynasty was in power in Iran and not the mullah regime. Still i doubt Turkey would join a fight against Iran except to support Azerbaijan if it was attacked.
@ZeihanonGeopolitics Peter, what are your thoughts on the relationships and competitions between NATO members in the post-American world? You've mentioned on numerous occasions the upcoming scramble for influence/control and access to resources in the Mediterranean region, with the French and the Turks being the biggest players. I would assume that their national interests would at some point come into conflict. Will their links/alliance through NATO help lessen those tensions? Could we see a potential military conflict between NATO members? Or would the US shut down anything before it kicks off?