Ask Peter Zeihan: Will Putin "Disappear" and Updates on Russian Demographics?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 มิ.ย. 2023
- This is the first of the "Ask Peter" series, so I figured we'd kick it off with a two-parter. First, what's the likelihood of Putin getting assassinated? Second, how is Russia's demographic situation?
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#ukrainewar #russia #demographic #putin
Russian citizen here. Birthrates in late USSR were shit because economy and society offered no real initiative. By 80s there were deficits of everything, corruption in consumer goods was rampant, and since then people never quite recovered from that anxiety and uncertainty. My mom was teen in 80s, so, Gen X, I am 28, late millennial. Mom had to work all 9 months of pregnancy, had only me, my siblings she couldn’t carry to full term, and my dad as programmer had unstable employment through nineties and died young to rare disease (Stephen Hawking had the same but in remission). I am not having kids in this freaking Mordor
Move abroad. Australia or New Zealand are good.
@@tancreddehauteville764 Spot on. I was born in one and live in the other. Both are great countries in their own ways.
@@tancreddehauteville764 I’m working on it, guys. First stop will probably be Israel as mom’s side of the family is Jewish, but it’s volatile too, and I would prefer to stay in Southern Europe. Bulgaria, Montenegro. I love climate and food and their demography is not inflated by people, let’s put it mildly, blowing up at atheist satire and inherently hostile to Jews ;)
@@tancreddehauteville764 Yeah, great if you can. It's not the easiest thing to accomplish.
Sorry to hear that dude. I hope your mother country can have some more personal freedoms. Its terrible to hear you had to endure such things.
I'm still not sure if this is a travel channel or a politics channel. 😂
Walking allows you to ventilate your brain.
He’s on a green screen
GEO - travel
POL… - politics 🤠
@@FrankenBeenzpropaganda of what?
Common sense and math?
@@paul_wiggin US
Your great videos are incredible with details of persons, past history, and many countries. Look forward to more?
Great analysis! Love unbiased independent journalism... pure news, No spin!
A good way to defend yourself is by not stealing your defence budget.
And stealing your maintenance budget or reserves.
Yes but it is a race. If you do not steal from your budget someone else will do it for you. Each person must steal as fast as possible and then buy plastic helmets and cheap rubber boots to appear to be doing something whilst hiding the money overseas.
Ironic how so much of that stolen money went to buying yachts that the west has seized lol
How about trying not to invade and genocide other nations out of existence ? That might work magic yo russia’s self- defense since nobody ever needed to threaten them first
@@mbak7801 You mean, despite the tens (or hundreds) of billions of dollars of material support the United States has been giving Ukraine, that might not translate to a victorious counter-offensive?
Do you mean to say that Ukrainians might be giving their lives for nothing, now?
Are you saying that the Zelenskyy presidency is just an act?
@@mbak7801 I mean, how else would you ensure the geostrategic future of your rump empire?
Love the longer format where you are answering various questions. Looking forward to more like it.
Love to your take on things keep putting out content like this please thank you Peter
These videos are amazing. Love the perspective. Mr. Zeihan is a great thinker!
Imagine being stuck at an airport and Peter Zeihan comes up to you and says "Hey, I'm Peter, ask me anything!"
I'd ask if he could please stop talking.
That's the airport where Peter lives.
Mr Zeihan, I'm an avid consumer of your work and content. My question for you is since demographics are so important have you done your part and contributed to the future of the workforce?
I would ask him about the possibility of creating an economic trade zone in Central America like a mini-EU.
I assume there are significant challenges. What are they?
If we could achieve it, what would be the benefits? In other words, is it worth trying to overcome those challenges?
@@pragmaticparadox5981 I'd ask him to ignore you.
Once again excellent work. Thank you so much for your analysis 🥃
I must give a big thumbs up to Peter for his choice of locations and the variety . As a city dweller who loves seeing the " natural world " I get great enjoyment . Cheers our kid !
Many thanks Peter. Brilliance. Observation at its finest . Cheers.
Thank you. The second half was most enlightening. Dis United Nations & your previous videos spelled out the first part. The second part was new.
Looking forward to the next video.
Stay safe.
There was also a significant brain drain during the Soviet collapse in '89-'91. Over the course of my employment in the 90's and later I met many technically educated people who had "escaped" from the Soviet Union when it went down. Most of these people - the one's that I knew about - were in the age range of 30-60. Many were Jewish and there were not just a few - thousands. Thank you Peter for your insight to some of these geopolitical problems we are now having. Very interesting.
My jewish parents escaped back then.. the ussr didnt want two highly educated intellectuals, two 'zhidovskih rozha'
Indeed. About 1 million Jews left the USSR to Israel and most of them stayed in Israel (or moved to Western Europe or the US and Canada). The vast majority were engineers, teachers, academics and general professionals.
A lot of engineers, skilled machinists, doctors, etc., came to St. Paul - Minneapolis in the late 1990’s from the former USSR. These were ethnic Russian Jews who came to the US as refugees. It was helpful to Minnesota as we had a skilled labor shortage in 1997-2000.
@@JohnHoffman65 Im sure many Americans didnt like the inflow of these jews (eventhough most of them were secular) but life with a jewish 'face' in ussr was unbearable in the late 80s/early 90s.
@@MrMuki61 How wonderful that they were able able to get higher education in Russia.
Thank you for this detailed analysis. Subscribed.
Thank you again brother!
Excellent information and presentation Mr. Zeihan! I can literally see the gears go round and round in that brain with all that exertive energy and oxygen intake! I am loving the "under 20-ish minute" talk format!
Excellent video! The best take on the situation I have seen to date! Now Subscribed!
Peter! You are Brilliant! very knowledgeable! so nice to have trust in listening to your comment! keep up your excellent work! Thank You from South Africa Cape Town
Thanks, Peter, New subscriber and honestly your content is mind-stretching. Thanks for giving me thought-provoking content
"even if he were to accidentally duct tape himself to a lawn chair and go swimming..."
Oh dear, I shouldn't have laughed quite so heartily at that.
Yeah, I love those wry digs at what happens to 'unwanted' Russians. Taking them at their ludicrous supposed face value, sarcastically, yeah, he does it very well.
I guess I should rather say he exaggerates the ludicrousness of the 'accident' or 'suicide' deaths for comedic effect, and does it very well.
Yeah, it's called the "russian stroke".
Thank you Peter. I'm always impressed with your breadth of knowledge and ability to talk for minutes on these subjects without looking at notes.
Ya and he certainly gifted us with a nice long video today.
his conclusion does not make sense.
yes, russia is declining very fast.
still huge nuclear power and PLENTY of natural resources.
but no people. i were putin, I will cut deal with Chinese.
he has no other choice, and US "forced" it on him.
now US has enemy with 1 billion people with almost infinite natural resources.
Good luck with that cold war.
@@BuddyLee23 While hiking
@@HistoryCity1 and filming
@@HistoryCity1 Up hill 😆
Super insightful. Thank you.
Thank you, lots of information in a nut shell.
"Russian raw materials extraction depends on foreigners"
According to the research of Thomas Sowell, this was true even under the Soviet system.
Same goes to China, assembly line depends on foreigh technology.
And both countries and shrinking demographically.
Even better, russia could turn their gunpoint at china if putin get outed.
Average russians like americans more than chinese, a democratic russia is a nightmare to china.
@@spinach660 Yeah, I'm inclined to think that the best play America can make at this point, is to give Russia a sphere or influence in Ukraine -- and support one in Greater Mongolia, East Turkmenistan, and Tibet. =)
China has already started stabbing Russia in the back, setting up summits with FSR's in Central Asia, without inviting Russia.
@@jimluebke3869As a Russian putinist I’m inclined to think that US should give Russian back our land: Alaska and California. And move NATO back to West Germany, by givving us back control of Berlin. And then we could sit and peacefully discuss further - how we would distribute power. Unless you are in favor of WWIII and nuclear exchange of course.
@@Whatsupwiththisname I hear you can buy San Francisco's Union Square for cheap these days, although cleaning up after the socialists (and Democrats, but I repeat myself) would be a bit of a job.
The difference was the soviets occupied foreign countries and could move skilled foreigners easily around the country where they were needed. Now they need to outsource them
WE WANT LONG VIDEOS LIKE THIS EVERYDAY. Peter Zeihan in high demand
Peter … thanks for your exceptional offerings. I sifted through nearly 100 sources of info - until I finally settled on three. You are one of those. Appreciate your analysis and insight. Cheers from ‘downunder’.
10 months later, this video aged well. I find that with your videos and books in general! Well done Peter!
This guy’s stamina is unbelievable. Giving a college level lecture while climbing a mountain must be unprecedented.
He is walking on level ground bro. Ill give you a story on a walk. Talk to me when he is rock climbing while giving us a lecture. 😆 Next episode he is 200 feet high on an ice wall giving us a lecture on neo capitalism. 🤣 Right... i mean he might actually do it.
Ok so its not that level but still...
That hike he is on is at least 8000feet above sea level. I know because I live in Colorado.
@@donnanuce EXACTLY
Imagine being on a hike and passing by a dude rambling on about Russia (or China or any of the other topics he covers). It would be so hilarious.
I read all your books, Peter, and while I do not always agree with you. I am really happy to have found your work, and you are a true role model for looking at the world from a fact based point of view
if its all fact based, then why do you not always agree w him?
There can be vast differences in the interpretation of facts.
@@ruckin3Because OP can enjoy Peter's style of analytics without agreeing with every conclusion he makes.
Geopolitics is complex, people take different factors into account and arrive at different conclusions.
@@hackhenk even if you take the very same factors, but with different weight and you'll arrive to a different conclusion.
@@ruckin3 While no one can consider _all_ the facts, having _some_ is certainly an improvement over general discourse. Which facts are looked for first and included is a matter of methology, and interpretation and conclusions vary. Geopolitics isn't mathemathics.
They need to not only see it but Feel It!
Wow, that was really really interesting, thank you.
I love how you can provide us different points of views from facts that are public and aviable, allowing to draw conclusions we otherwise would not have tought about them.
Thank you Peter. Love these talks. Only an experienced lecturer could deliver this sort of detailed talk while walking along a woodland trial.
What would have been better- giving Russia eastern Ukraine and avoiding the death of 1 million+ or continuing a war and pointing out the atrocities? I really dont know and neither do you. MAYBE this war is more about Taiwan, but I would never have protected Taiwan in the first place. THey were part of China 200 years before we invaded Hawaii. Bring chip making back to the U.S. and stop this gaslighting about "democracy". Our 3-letter agencies ONLY care when it suits them. Zeihan is a shill for 3-letter agencies
For future reference: once there is no more breath left to talk - SLOW DOWN YOUR WALKING. :D ❤
Was funny seeing Peter so passionately ingrained in the lecture to not notice...
But its all bullshit he is spuing mixed with a bit of fax
@@murecerickman I'll take his expertise over a Trump University graduate any day.
@@murecerickman Oh really? Why don't you start up a channel and factually refute everything he says. Since you know "fax"
Thank you.
That was very informative and quite interesting.
If anything I learn from these video’s is that I need to go outside more.
Omg. Probably best if you walk away from your computer devices for a good, long time, Jman Jman.
I would like nothing better to hike with Peter and ask his opinion on various geopolitical situations.
I am a great admirer of you analysis! Thank you!
Peter, I love your laser focus, there’s no umming and ahhhing, all whist climbing up a hill. Great update!
Thanks for the clear explanation. It's nice to hear that from a political (or geopolitical) analyst without lots of hedging or innuendo.
Brilliant Analysis!!!! Thank You!!!!
Love the walk and talk. Downloading the info seems much easier when I'm taking a stroll while you breakdown the world and regional problems. I love it, thank ya, Pete
Peter, you're the Cam Hanes of Geopolitics. Great episode. Thanks for sharing.
More like the Henry Kissinger of malevolent propaganda.
That's a really interesting point about giving Putin "off-ramps". I remember when the war first began, it seemed like that was the one line every single European country (besides the former Warsaw pact nations) would repeat: give Putin an "off-ramp" to end the war. For whatever reason, countries like France and Germany did not understand that this war wasn't some kind of huge misunderstanding or an accident. This was the outcome Russia wanted, and frankly it has been the hill Putin has chosen to die on.
yup he has wanted to take over ukraine since he came to power . he will never give up. it sucks he has 7 million men available to throw at this.
Agree. It needs to be the hill he does die on.
That's funny. All the US leaders have been saying since 2011 they wanted to force Russia into a Ukrainian war and slowly drain them dry. Maybe watch some independent media instead of this intelligence shill.
@@ronblack7870technically they have 25 million available reservesist available
@@user-nx1we5gu3bI'm sure Western companies would like to make money off of Ukrainian resources but none of the western powers have anything approaching a major need or desire for it.
Peter your encouraging me to exercise again while watching you there, grinding through those hilly trails, barely losing a breath, while continuously keeping your mind and your vocal cords busy at the same time....along with all that fresh mountain air helping as well!!
Thanks a lot 👍🏻
Excellent! Succinct and most informative.
"Nalvani" did not say that. He is against the war and made that clear. He was reluctant to give a clear answer about Crimea, though. I'm pretty sure that's a very sensitive topic even for his supporters. Also, his name is Navalny, not Nalvani.
Yeah... I am absolutely amazed at this comment, like honestly this has made me a lot more skeptical of much of his claims broadly speaking. Because if he gets something as objectively wrong as that then like what else did he at the very least paper-over to get his point across.
In the past Navalny has been ambiguous about the Crimea issue, but earlier this year in a series of tweets Navalny said that Crimea should be "returned to Ukraine, full stop".
got a source for this?
Twitter?
My links keep on getting removed. Just look it up, there are many good sources on this.
Well, Crimea should NOT be returned! Ukraine going down and thank God!
Well he's dead so who cares
Thank you Peter! Excellent show😊
As always , interesting and v informative ,, thanks Peter
Amazing how informed you are. Thank you for the great work
Demographics are not as significant for Russia as they are for China. China has an assembly industry that requires a large workforce, while Russia’s focus is on its gas/oil/mines industry, where the number of operational pipelines is of more importance. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is the weak point; it’s Germany. Without gas, Germany and thereby EU would go down on its knees. The Germans pays all the bills, that will stop.
The pathetism of all the wishful thinking, hilarious "facts" about Russia, the wrong deductions, and true desperation showed in this video is amazing, even by Zeihan. Truly amazing, Keep up the good psychosis, man!
@@sergeant64I would argue demographics are just as important to Russia if not the most important thing solely based on racial hierarchy, I mean do you really think Muscovites consider Buryatians as equal? As even Russian? If the Russian ethnicity is failing while being overpopulated by the Turks, Russia won’t exist as Russia anymore, major staple resource exporter or not. You could subscribe yourself to Russian world ideaology, but the truth is you’ll never be an equal Russian, not like how an a immigrant can become an American anyways.
Western media and analysts like to focus on the weaknesses of Russia, maybe because it makes us feel better, and it's of course important to know about those. But it's also important to not underestimate someone with hostile intentions. It can backfire to focus too much on their weaknesses
Russia is barbarically hostile and everybody should be aware of that, they should also be aware that Russia is failing to meet its own lofty ambitions because reality gave them a kick in the teeth, the Wider West should fully support Ukraine until Russia is booted out, that is the best result for the war in Ukraine, however Russia will still be a bad neighbour!?!
Pretty sure it's China keeping a very close eye on things
Good one, this
Fascinating
Your a good guy, Peter. I see your love and care within the context of your brilliant awareness of the systems of the world .
Peter is giving us the beauty of nature and lots of info. Amazing.
Is he training for a marathon?!
This one clarified a lot for me. Dak
Good piece
Peter,just be carefull while in the wild. You provide us with tons of reliable info I appreciate it much. Take care!!
Multitasking like a champ
Well done
So glad i found this channel I love geopolitics because local Northern Ireland politics is so dull such is tribal politics
Thought provoking and insightful analysis. Thank you!
Minor fact check: When Andropov died, it wasn't Viktor Chernomyrdin, it was Konstantin Chernenko who took over the show. Viktor Chernomyrdin rose to political prominence after the Soviet Union fell and Yeltsin had become the power broker.
Chernenko was a terminally ill hard-liner when he got the job, and in practice because of his physical frailty, it ended up being Gromyko and Ustinov who ran the country. He was installed more to buy time for other old Soviets to find a candidate preferable to the one Andropov had tapped -- Mikhail Gorbachev. In the end, Gorbachev wound up taking over, anyway, simply because too many people who were old enough to have participated in anything in 1917 were dead or dying.
Yeah, I know. It's hard to keep all those Slavic names straight. I can only do it because I speak Russian, and the Slavic roots of "Chernomyrdin" give it a very strange translation into English: "The guy with the black animal snout."
When he is trying to name Ukranian and Russian toponims it is even more hilarious) ffs, write it on a piece of paper, it is not so hard)
I was going to comment that it was Chernenko but you beat me to it. I was in high school at the time and we thought it was kind of funny how the Soviet leaders kept dying so fast after getting the job.
I read Accidental Superpower about year ago... EXCELLENT read!!! ... the information in that book helped me make so much more sense out of our world... and global politics. Also, for people who fear immigration is hurting America... you be SHOCKED to learn that immigration is actually SAVING our butts from depopulation. The mindblowing truth that MOST industrialized nations face demographic decline is truly amazing... the book shows that the coming depopulation of industrialized nations is projected to disconnect and deglobalize most of the industrialized world... the numbers are ASTOUNDING! Thanks very much Peter... your voice seems almost prophetic in these murky times!
İmmigration is a nightmare for my country. All the third World crap comes and our doctors, engineers and scientists run away to europe and other civilized countries. I hope one day we can kick them out of our country.
I agree with you on immigration except, I believe that immigration should be rational and regulated, not irrational and uncontrolled. I believe that this is a basic function of government, and I believe that spending billions of dollars paying people NOT to do their jobs is irrational.
Have you considered, that should birth rates be very low in a wealthy country for a generation, the population reacts by naturally increasing birth rates to 'fill the empty social and economic space'? You don't mention it is in the book you speak of. Immigration you speak of is an intentionally fabricated phenomenon that some competent nations employ because they understand population is currently the most precious resource for generating any and all resources. So it is a good thing, it just has some negative impacts on individuals.
Brilliant informed appraisal.
I still don't understand how you get such clear and quality audio without the background noise when filming your videos as you do. Also, as an international affairs and politics nerd, I love your content.
I guess, may be, he has a iphone pro ?..
CIA makes sure he has a good sound tech
@@megamilyon6111Like an iPhone?
You can edit out the noise
Looks wonderful wherever Peter is hiking, seeing birch trees always feels good.
10:32 Any source on Navalny being okay with continuing the war? Pretty sure his most recent post earlier this year was about Russia's and Ukraine's borders going back to the way they were internationally recognized post-USSR in 1991, and that fighting war over them is senseless.
No source, he made it up... ☹
@@BlueHawkPictures17more likely just confused him with Girkin or misinterpreted Crimea controversy story. However Zeihan never attempted to correct himself on this one and that casts doubts on his other ideas
Very Interesting Food For Thought! 🤔
Consistently the most appealing backgrounds on all of youtube.
The Cue was 1982, and it was Andropov. He was foloved by Chiernienko. Both died due to old age within a year of assuming office. Next came Gorvachov. Chiernomyrdyn was later.
"Coup". A "cue" is a stick used to play pool.
Chernenko, not Chernomyrdin. Tha latter was a former Russian PM. Gorbachev was - as far as I know - never in the KGB, he went to law school and later worked a lot with agricultural issues. But, yes, he enjoyed the patronage and protection of KGB boss Andropov.
Wasn't Gorbachev basically the ultimate Russian Boy Scout, a symbol of belief in the whole idealized Soviet system?
@@jimluebke3869 Yes, but his family was a victim of Stalin‘s despotism. He never forgot this. And later, as a trusted Communist Boy Scout, Gorbachev was allowed to travel abroad. This, combined with other factors gradually turned him into a reformist.
That was really good, thank you.
Thanks for the video. Demography seems to be an extremely important factor globally.
Outstanding analysis as usual. My daily dose of geopolitics. It’s amazing how uninformed the typical citizen is and most aren’t interested in learning what’s going on in the world. Thanks for educating those of us who are interested.
You may or may not know what a typical uninformed citizen looks like. I am an 80 year old female citizen who paid little attention to world politics till the Pandemic. But I'm awake now & have been following Peter for 6 months & I'm not the only one. Be circumspect of who you judge as uninformed.
He has a way of piecing together a myriad of facts to make a cohesive narrative. There are things like the Chinese One Child Policy and Europe's low birth rate that I knew about. But I never realized the economic and societal decline that would result. Climate change and now food shortages due to the Russ-Ukraine war are going to cause instability and mass migrations out of Africa just as the US is seeing out of Central America.
@@zendochip if you're only listening to Peter, then you are not that informed. A couple suggestions would be to listen to Scott Horton, Col. Douglas MacGregor, Judge Andrew Napolitano to name a few.
@@cranmore2 OK. Thanks I will.
Are the people on this channel idiots....? Or is it just bots sounding off?
THANK YOU SIR. an amazing verbal dissertation from a civilian viewpoint. The bigger picture is still very bleak for ordinary Russians and Ukranians.
Thanks, Pete.
Superb
I appreciate this analysis. It bit down to the bone and was to the point. Either Russia and Putin are in this to the death, or Russia and Putin are in their death throws. Thank you for this video. I appreciate the realism.
*throes Putin and his few confidants are in their death throes!
Putin is a thug and thugged his way to top position in Russia, but his big mistake in declaring war is he has come into confrontation with people who can outsmart him (...and his regime) and he is generally coming second in all facets of this war!?!
Either way it looks like the end of the Russian system for the next several decades. Imagine you are having a fight with a man in a speeding car. He has a gun to your head but you are driving, towards a cliff into the rocky ocean. He will kill you if you stop the car, (the only way he can live) but you know you will die if he wins. so you drive closer to the cliff hoping for a few more seconds of life. The outcome is the same either way.
Putin is in it to the end and he will take everything with him if given an inch of a chance. IMO, Russia survives and outlasts the Ukraine and the West and will eventually set sights somewhere else, most likely Middle East.
@Dictator Deirdre And Ukraine might not be much better off and in the throes of Blackrock
Good questions, and excellent insights.
Thank you, Peter!!
Most insightful video on the subject I've seen.
It was Chernenko, not Chernomyrdin, in 1982. Chernomyrdin was in the 1990s, a prime minister
Thank you for a cogent summarization of some of the history, the prevailing conditions and as logical an extrapolation as is possible under the circumstances. Sounds like a job description! Well done as always.
Reminding self to never to go hiking with you. I'd be begging for a mountain bike in the first five minutes from a half mile behind you. At 6'4" you cover ground, mate.
Cheers from Ottawa,
V. Putine - XI's Number-run Gloopie!!!
Respect to Host
Very good video, thank you!
Love it when uncle Pete teaches us what’s what in the world of geopolitics 🙏🏽
Uncle Peter says even though world may fall apart, America will be safe. I really wish Uncle Ted was here with us today give us daily TH-cam reminders as a security systems analyst. 😅
😂😂😂😂😂
🫶
So refreshing to find your channel of intellectual academic insights 😊❤
Great camera stabilization
You do all your best thinking when you're hiking. Just like me!
Re: Young Russian men fleeing the country to avoid the draft...I was in Phuket a couple of months ago. All of them are there. Every last rude, & obnoxious one of them. There are actual news reports of a huge spike of them involved in scooter accidents/voilence/drunk & disorderly stuff. Great. It seems like there were 5 Russians for every tourist from somewhere else there.
The funny thing is, unless you ask them specifically if they are Russian, you can easily confuse them with Ukranians. Which have been reported to be just as obnoxious.
True, but the 3 Aeroflot passenger jets I saw parked at gates when I landed didn't likely carry any Ukranian folks on them. Besides, the news outlets cite reports from the Thai tourist police that specifically mention Russian nationals.
To be fair, plenty of drunk obnoxious English in Phuket, drunk obnoxious Kiwis on the Gold Coast and drunk obnoxious Aussies in Bali all year around. It goes with the territory.
Bali too, apparently.
Ouch..."the death rate doubled and the birth rate halved" that one will be hard to overcome.
3:18 * Chernenko came after Andropov and preceded Gorby.
Excellent analysis.
It was Konstatin Chernenko after Andropov, not the guy Zeihan said. Minor error, but I've heard Zeihan make the same mistake a few times now. Accuracy should matter.
Peter Zeihan: reliably shooting horizontal video for years. My hero.
I love a good logically consistent perspective.
Very interesting
"Paid the price for a major war without major gains." well said.