@@highguyreviewing420i didnt know Trump wasnt in office some time, nor in the background takking 7 times with Putin. Yep. Trump has zero influence on anything. But someone with an IQ od Yohurt like you. When Trump gets to power, you will 20 years later severely regret your current mindset. If somehow a group of Tyrants win, your 10.000 complaints of your current US/any European government, will instantly become zero. Till then complain as if your government is a tyrant. When the world is truly ruled by tyrants, your every current problem is over
I second that yet I keep watching and listening to him... Smh! I must be a glutton for punishment or something. The anxiety this guy gives me sometimes is palpable and fucks with my head, but I keep coming back, it's a very unhealthy relationship lol... He gets one right here and there though, he did predict the North Korean cannon fodder would be coming, just found out today they are on their way... Hey, even a blind pig finds an acorn now and again... 😂
Nothing wrong about being a Fed, but peter caters towards the dumbest of americans. His recklessness makes him interesting because you know it comes from somewhere
Canada can hook you up for about $45/barrel. Down from $77/barrel7 years ago. If your shopping, we have like 168 billion barrels of oil kicking around.
Sand tar oil is very expensive to refine. So. It goes like this, U.S. taxpayers pay to build and maintain a pipeline to Texas. Canada sells oil to multinational oil companies, who then pays a Texas refinery to refine the dirty oil, then they load on tankers and ship to China or highest bidder. No profit to U.S., only costs associated with oil cleanups in pristine lands. No loyalty from oil companies we give billions in subsidies. Their only loyalty is to the shareholders.
@@tonyz766 That's the price for sco, not the dilbit to the best of my knowledge. 35% is upgraded to synthetic crude oil before hitting the market, 65% goes to hc refineries for lower quality products.
@@pooga5248I don’t believe there is an oil shortage in North America; only restrictions to extract and produce that oil. California would be in trouble not because of a lack of oil in North America but because of the insane restrictions they have placed on the gasoline they can use in the state. They require a certain grade of gasoline, that in order to produce, only a specific type of crude will do. And that crude I believe does come from overseas and only a few refineries are set up to process it the way California wants it. My bet is in a crisis you would see a return to sanity by California elected officials. They would start using regular gasoline like the rest of the other 49 states real quick. All that pandering they do over there and thinking they’re better than everybody else only works in times of abundance.
@@caaguilar82Florida has the same gas standards. The smell is very different and easier to breathe. Even with the cleaner gas we still get a lot of smog in LA w/o I would imagine it being far worse. I live half of my time in the Ozarks and the population out there is sparce enough for the air to stay breathable so in that case regular gas is fine. But I couldn't breathe that sht in LA.
Well, the problem there from a carbon emissions standpoint is that nations aren't just going to roll over and de-industrialize. In the absence of oil, they'll go over to what they can use: coal.
Peter didn’t mention that most US refineries are not equipped for US shale, so it will take 6-12 months of requipping US refineries to switch from Saudi/Venezuela grade to US shale grade. In this period, US corporates will not waste the opportunity to make massive profits & hike US retail prices as much as possible, so a $300/barrel global price would likely mean a $250/barrel US price for a year, stabilising at $200/barrel in the medium term due to smuggling, evading restrictions, profit maximisation, etc.
@@RogerGraham-pc9nw...primarily because America's refineries are optimized for imported "sour" (significant impurities) Gulf crude, and retooling it for the "sweet" (fairly clean) US fracked stuff is prohibitively expensive. Especially with rising hostility against fossil fuels and the electrification of transportation going forward making further production uneconomical.
israel bombs iran. => for some reason iran invades Saudi Arabia via iraq?? what? =>oil price $300 => US stop oil export => chinese economics collapse. what? LOL i give him A for imagination, but D+ for possibility of any of them happening or even make any sense.
This is just doomer clickbait. After Iran attacked Israel, they probably made a back room deal for a lesser response in return for Iran limiting their support to hamas and to a lesser extent hezbollah in the medium term. Or if that didn’t happen and Israel attacks Iran it will either be more symbolic or at worst do some damage to their oil export but not complete. They want to keep that card in their back pocket. I am not an expert or anything. It just seems like common sense since Israel and Iran’s interests at this moment are to de escalate. Yes, it will cost BiBi some political capital from his hard right supporters but it could gain him a much better strategic landscape militarily
Yeah, Peter, you neglect one thing... we cannot refine any of the oil we pump here in the US, because most of it is light sweet as opposed to heavy sour (we're equipped/addicted to ONLY refine Saudi, Venezuelan and Canadian heavy sour), and we cannot convert the exiting refineries in any less than 10 years because you have to replace cokers with hydrocrackers, along with a ton of other changes, and that aint cheap or easy - I mean, MAYBE if you had a manhattan project type scenario, but... We are not energy independent. We are screwed, is what we are. WE simply cannot refine the crude we pump, it's a completely different process. That's the price we paid for the petro-dollar and protecting Saudi Arabia, we got cheap heavy sour in return for our protection, so all the refineries in the Us are built for Heavy Sour. Sorry.
I had to look up what a kocher was and eventually figured out you meant coker. I've now been learning about it and Hydrocrackers. This stuff is really interesting. I used to distill cannabis and hemp into distillate so I understand some of it. I live in California, and was part of the green rush. Maybe I can use my old distiller to crack some acorn fat into gasoline a quart at time because with the precipitous drop in weed prices which killed my business and 10 dollar a gallon gas. I'm screwed. Time to gather some acorns, it's the season. I need a patreon...
@@fuocofuegofire yeah, sorry, voice dictation sucks. i wrote an entire substack article on it if you want to read it. It's under "The Revolutions". I'd post a link, but that wouldn't be cricket
Yep, it been that way for a while. As this video kept going I was wondering if PZ was going to mention California's precarious position. There is crude production in California but its been dropping for the last few decades, and there is a bit of importing from some other minor western USA oil fields, but the volume its no where near what's needed to supply California's thirst for fuel. EDIT: Forgot to mention that west Arizona and southern Nevada (Las Vegas) gets their petroleum products from California. Not sure if the Reno, NV area gets its supply from the San Francisco Bay area. I think Phoenix still gets fuels from Texas, they were looking at a pipeline link to CA a few years back.
He left out a few things the other side will do: 1) Russia is delivering S-400 surface to air missile systems to Iran as we speak. 2) Iran has already announced via its diplomats that it will retaliate against the energy infrastructure of any country that supports an Israeli/US attack on Iran. 3) Iran will end its fatwa on nuclear arms and will have missile deliverable nukes within a year. This will pose an existential threat to Israel just like its nukes pose to Iran. 4) BRICS is gearing up to top speed because of the foreseeable oil crisis and wants to start trading oil in a different currency (probably the Yuan) among its member nations ASAP. This will seriously impact the US economy and will make the US trade deficit untenable.
@@JerehmiaBoaz 1) Did you watch the video? Do you remember how Israel bombed the surface to air missile system by Irans nuclear plant last time? Israel can shoot past S-400. 2) Israel don't care. Their calculus is about what keeps themselves safe. 3) This is what has been keeping the "peace" in the middle east for the last decades. Lets hope it stays at the treat of Iran making nukes... 4.1) BRICS is a made up term. The countries in BRICS are either natural competitors (China, India, Russia) or have no relation to the first three and are poor and getting poorer (Brasil, South Africa). 4.2) There is only one thing the US really cares about when it comes to foreign policy, and that is that the rest of the world trades in the US dollar. Anyone who tries to go against this in any meaningful way gets sanctioned or bombed (Iran, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, and increasingly China). Remember the largest air force in the world is the US Air Force. The second largest air force in the world is the US Navy. And the second largest Navy in the world (USA having the biggest) is the rest of the world combined. The US is all about protecting their global hold on power though the use of the Dollar backed by the US military.
@@JerehmiaBoazThe S400 has already been shown to be pretty bad in Ukraine and Israel. The F-22 or F-35 would destroy the S400 before it even detected them.
@@themetalhead1463 You're assuming 1) that the US already knows where these mobile platforms will be stationed, and 2) that Iran uses the S-400s conventionally. If the Iranians only activate a few of them when the Israeli planes return home low on missiles and fuel, they could very well take down an F-35. If Ukraine has demonstrated one thing it's that our military technology isn't as superior as we're led to believe.
Arizona checking in, we get a lot of our gas from California. Even with West Texas and New Mexico supplies no refinery is going to waste a good emergency. They would have whatever refinery accident is necessary to drive it $10 a gallon here.
boo boo boo ... and I though Zeihan was going to bring up COVID-24 ... since the election is here and the DimokRats are panicking 🙂and getting to ready to 'cheat' in NOV2024 in PA
There's no way America would ban oil exports under those conditions and just leave money on the table. We'd lift all regulations to double our oil output and export like crazy.
Especially since most US exports are to Canada. Because of geography, Canada exports oil to the north-western quadrant of the USA, and the US pipeline network that fans out from the gulf to the MidWest and North-East also extends to Eastern Canada. So if the US cuts exports to Eastern Canada, Canada will have to ship oil from western Canada to eastern Canada by train instead of supplying it to the NorthWest.
This. We definitely wouldn't let prices spike at home, but for sure we'd jump on the opportunity to export the rest and make So Much Damned Money. MURICA.
are you suggesting the US is only producing at 1/2 capacity? What would it take to double total output? I'm not an oil analyst so it would be irresponsible of me to suggest how/how long it would take to double the output you speak of.
@@alha5281 probably not spent, but i question whether they would be in position to invade europe, especially with Poland arming itself to the teeth now
California gets alot of its refined product from a refinery in St John, NB, Canada. That is one of the few refineries in the world that can produce the high quality products that are used in CA.
Can’t oil be shipped from G of Mexico to the West Coast? Also US would keep/substitute oil exports going to key allies like Japan and South Korea surely.
Keep in mind about half of the shale crude cannot be refined in the United States because it is too sweet and too light. California is going to get hosed regardless. Philips 66 has started the exit from California. 140,000 BBL of refined product, gone. Where will the slack come from?
Because Saudi Arabia is an ally of the US just like Israel. They can't hit us so they go for the Saudi's and cause all the chaos described. War is hell.
Couldn't imagine shilling half a Netflix subscription for a 10 minute video a few days early and the ability to ask a question 😂 I like Peter but that's some brutal value
The world is a much more sane place than it appears. I’ve been hearing these types of predictions for decades. I also remember hearing “this is the most important election of our lifetimes” when Reagan was running against Mondale.
In a previous video he said the US oil refineries are for low-grade foreign crude oil, not US-sourced crude. Seems he should have said something about that in this video.
All you need to do is look at a history book of the middle east to understand why. There has only been one war in the middle east. It started in the middle ages and continues to this day. Hint: It's based on religion, not oil.
@@shj2000 Whether motivated by corruption and greed or playing the ideological long game (or a mix of the two), the Iranian regime currently has something to lose. The scenario being posited envisions what is possible after that.
I'm not convinced either. I just don't see what Iran gains from destroying SA's oil facilities. It's notable that MBS has recently been fancying a rapprochement of sorts with Khamenei. The Saudis hosted Iran's foreign minister two weeks ago in Riyadh. And they're both now openly discussing conducting joint naval exercises.
China would be hit hardest and Europe would be second worst hit. India might survive (mostly if and only if the Russians try to leverage this time for a better long term deal).
I would think that whatever administration is in power could come to an agreement with the oil companies to decouple the prices but still permit exports. That would let the oil companies export still at a massive profit.
he's an analyst. He basically sits at a desk in a safe country and has fantasies. The only time he travels is when he is being paid to shill something. He's a fortune teller.
California Energy Commission's 2023 report of state's annual crude supply. US domestic sources are 39.3% of California's supply. CALIFORNIA: 123,947k bbl, 23.4% of state's supply ALASKA: 83,842k bbl, 15.9% Foreign is 60.7% of state's supply. It breaks down IRAQ: 69,589k 21.70% of foreign imports SAUDI ARABIA: 50,253k 15.67% BRAZIL: 48,367k 15.08% ECUADOR: 46,882k 14.62% GUYANA: 31,201k 9.73% COLOMBIA: 19,276k 6.01% CANADA: 13,709k 4.27% MEXICO: 13,315k 4.15% UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: 5,944k 1.85% Other: 22,206k 6.92% The Middle East accounts for 125,786k bbl, which is slightly more (about 2 million bbl per annum) than what California's oil fields provide the state. The ME is roughly one-quarter of supply.
I think it is interesting that it is assumed that the response to an oil shortage making it possible for the USA to get $300 a barrel for exported oil is for it to STOP exporting oil. As opposed to having the oil companies come up with a propaganda line about "Our responsibility to the world to be frugal and export everything we can" while they actually are making insane quantities of money out of the whole thing... Or am I being cynical again?
The next question: Will America STILL ship bombs to Israel AND say they have the right to defend themselves after they destroy the worlds energy market??
Biden last week publicly threatened to pull weapons if Israel didn't stop embargoing food aid to Gaza, with much of the region currently starving. Which indicates there's at least some US exhaustion with Netanyahu after allowing him a year to freely commit any and all war crimes without any plans on what to do next. Ultimately I think his aim is certainly not a one state solution nor a two state solution. I suspect his endgame is to drive out the Palestinians from Gaza altogether and turn it into beachfront real estate.
This is pure sensationalism to get views and ultimately earn money on TH-cam! I fed Peter's transcript into ChatGPT and this is what the large AI language model said : The scenario described is possible but represents a worst-case, high-impact outcome. The feasibility of targeted strikes by Israel on Iranian oil infrastructure and retaliatory actions by Iran is credible. However, the escalation to a full-scale conflict impacting 20 million barrels per day of oil is less certain. The global oil market would indeed face turmoil in such an event, but the speaker’s predictions are on the more extreme end of the spectrum. The geopolitical complexities and potential for external mediation or de-escalation reduce the overall probability of such a massive disruption.
If you follow Zeihan, he is far from hyperbolic and dramatic... his views are almost always extremely conservative in the sense of events not spiraling, and the worst case not happening, etc.. This is the first time I've seen him give a SHTF scenario.
Yea I'd like to see Zeihan response to this. Fact is USA is not totally energy independent because most of our refineries depend on heavy sour (Venezuela, Canada) whereas tight oil is light sweet.
Well.... With drones and rockets and united attack from Yemen, they could destroy KSA oil production. But in terms of military on the ground, both of those countries are cripples. Iran has no money for war, KSA has no soldiers who want to fight.
Both Iran and Saudis are equally incompetent in military terms the Saudis should have increased their military though instead of pumping money into fantastical projects!?!
@@repo445-d4h Second, Saudi already got close to getting them to surrender twice. But the US forced them to retreat because "it wasnt fair for them". Its an unwinnable war for Saudi, and its good they finally realized and are now helping the Hou*his creating problems for the US lol.
Why not? If war pops off within or in 3 years then you will be the one at risk of being drafted. Telk those who can vote to vote for the president who got the US involved in 0 new wars during his presidency, Donald Trump.
It has been threatened by the Iranian leader but Israel must do what's best for its defence and that is cut off the money in Iran and the heads of the leadership which might take a longer campaign!?!
Gotta love the timing of it all. I still think we are getting a recession early next year, adding this to the equation certainly isn't making that less likely.
Oh btw Pete ppl wouldn't even bother commenting unless they are fans dont take comments personally from ppl you'll never meet. We type in the second you read it as permanent. It's not i change my ideas constantly its how you grow.. ty for the videos...
What i am learning from most of these content creators is that no one really knows what is coming. Take the Israeli palestine conflict of the russia ukraine war. None of use really know who is winning or whos is losing, whatever that means. We only know what we believe largely based upon the channel that we watch. Really is that simple
But i thought US still imports some oil. Because the one we export is the wrong kind for our refineries. So how is stopping exports make our markets super saturated?
Thanks for this update. It sounds like I better scrape up all my extra pennies so that I get in on the oil futures now before world prices explode. Or, should i save those pennies so I can fill my tank when the prices explode here? I felt pretty sassy since gas is just under $3 a gallon here in Denver yesterday. And minus 3 cents on my grocery cashback...
Born too late to fight in the middle east. Born too early to fight in the middle east. Born just in time to fight in the middle east.
American?
This is the best comment here. 😂
@@bikramjeetgoswami6523 probably
Moral of the story ~ Always fighting in the Middle East
@fly463 thanks captain
Plato, the ancient Greek philosopher, stated: Only the dead have seen the end of war.
It was George Santayana, not Plato.
And only Peter Zeihan will still blame Trump even though he isn't in office 😅
@@highguyreviewing420zeihan is a war mongering leftist with TDS
Tbf trump finds a way to ruin things that should have nothing to with him
@@highguyreviewing420i didnt know Trump wasnt in office some time, nor in the background takking 7 times with Putin. Yep. Trump has zero influence on anything. But someone with an IQ od Yohurt like you. When Trump gets to power, you will 20 years later severely regret your current mindset. If somehow a group of Tyrants win, your 10.000 complaints of your current US/any European government, will instantly become zero.
Till then complain as if your government is a tyrant. When the world is truly ruled by tyrants, your every current problem is over
"Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please."
Well said, and would that more nations heeded that gem.
A lesson the pro-Palestinian crowd refuse to learn.
If only the pro-palestinian crowd understood that...
If only the pro-fakestinian crowd knew that...
@@ferdinanddaratenas3447 If only the pro on both sides of the conflict understood that...
As an avid reader of Peters, I found that his predictions are the only scenario you can comfortable rule out.
lmao i was laughing the entire time
Yeah - nice one! An aussie...
I second that yet I keep watching and listening to him... Smh! I must be a glutton for punishment or something. The anxiety this guy gives me sometimes is palpable and fucks with my head, but I keep coming back, it's a very unhealthy relationship lol... He gets one right here and there though, he did predict the North Korean cannon fodder would be coming, just found out today they are on their way... Hey, even a blind pig finds an acorn now and again... 😂
yeah this video is nonsense
Nothing wrong about being a Fed, but peter caters towards the dumbest of americans. His recklessness makes him interesting because you know it comes from somewhere
Watch out if the Pentagon suddenly ordering lots of pizzas...
Or, Lobster tails! Pentagon likes pizza for dinner, but they're known for doing lobster tails at lunchtime.
Clandestine internal buffet 😂
Pizza index
Indeed... a lot of folks don't know this tidbit of history
Right 😂
I learned that from S2 Underground! Are you a follower of his? 😎
peter zeihan : there are monsters
also, peter zeihan : i hope everyone sleeps well
"Monsters are real... and they walk among us... have a good night!"
@GenuineAccountingsays the wind who is pushing him
lol he's so rich he will be fine
I don’t know why did he lie and said iran has only one main export point? While they have another one (new2021) outside hormoz..
@@Hecktique where ?
This is the beginning of Mad Max. Should I invest in assless chaps and a motorcycle now?
Motorcycles are cool 😎
Are there any other kind of chaps?
Now? what are you waiting for?
"A" motorcycle? You'll need four motorcycles to form a chariot.
Also, try to have a gyrocopter pilot friend somehow.
Not with your ass.
"I hope everyone sleeps well."
I can get geopolitics in many places. I come here for the comedy.
PEWRFECT COMMENT FOR TODAY ! 🙂
Characterize it properly: It's not comedy.
It is a refined sense of humor from a world-savvy geostrategist.
what other sources do you frequently watch
Oh, another cheery perspective from Pete!
Canada can hook you up for about $45/barrel. Down from $77/barrel7 years ago. If your shopping, we have like 168 billion barrels of oil kicking around.
Sand tar oil is very expensive to refine. So. It goes like this, U.S. taxpayers pay to build and maintain a pipeline to Texas. Canada sells oil to multinational oil companies, who then pays a Texas refinery to refine the dirty oil, then they load on tankers and ship to China or highest bidder. No profit to U.S., only costs associated with oil cleanups in pristine lands. No loyalty from oil companies we give billions in subsidies. Their only loyalty is to the shareholders.
@@tonyz766 That's the price for sco, not the dilbit to the best of my knowledge. 35% is upgraded to synthetic crude oil before hitting the market, 65% goes to hc refineries for lower quality products.
It's called Tar sands, not real oil, it needs to stay in the ground. There's no shortage of REAL oil in the world, just a shortage in North America
@@pooga5248I don’t believe there is an oil shortage in North America; only restrictions to extract and produce that oil.
California would be in trouble not because of a lack of oil in North America but because of the insane restrictions they have placed on the gasoline they can use in the state. They require a certain grade of gasoline, that in order to produce, only a specific type of crude will do. And that crude I believe does come from overseas and only a few refineries are set up to process it the way California wants it.
My bet is in a crisis you would see a return to sanity by California elected officials. They would start using regular gasoline like the rest of the other 49 states real quick. All that pandering they do over there and thinking they’re better than everybody else only works in times of abundance.
@@caaguilar82Florida has the same gas standards. The smell is very different and easier to breathe. Even with the cleaner gas we still get a lot of smog in LA w/o I would imagine it being far worse.
I live half of my time in the Ozarks and the population out there is sparce enough for the air to stay breathable so in that case regular gas is fine. But I couldn't breathe that sht in LA.
Greetings from Athens, Greece, where SHTF often. Don't have nightmares, goodnight!
😂
thanks...
Always remember, when the SHTF, it does not distribute evenly 💩💩
❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤ my friend and I went to Greece several times and had a lot of fun …… Delphi rocks
Is a Spartan army camped outside your walls??
The rapidly encroaching clouds make this video extra ominous
That’s a fog.
Tis the season, spooky 👻🎃
@@artman12fog is just a cloud on the ground
Well there You go! "Just stop oil" no need to glue yourself to a painting 😂
Sarcasm? I hope.
@@annekepannekoek8538 😆
Whatever Zionists want Zionists get.
Well, the problem there from a carbon emissions standpoint is that nations aren't just going to roll over and de-industrialize. In the absence of oil, they'll go over to what they can use: coal.
🤣🤣🤣🤣👍👍
This Patreon intro was perfect! Marketed yourself without casting us as freeloaders 😂
Peter didn’t mention that most US refineries are not equipped for US shale, so it will take 6-12 months of requipping US refineries to switch from Saudi/Venezuela grade to US shale grade. In this period, US corporates will not waste the opportunity to make massive profits & hike US retail prices as much as possible, so a $300/barrel global price would likely mean a $250/barrel US price for a year, stabilising at $200/barrel in the medium term due to smuggling, evading restrictions, profit maximisation, etc.
This is where we get the nationalizing of the oil industry.
Likewise, he failed to mention the US is currently importing around 7 million barrels of crude oil per day.
@@RogerGraham-pc9nw...primarily because America's refineries are optimized for imported "sour" (significant impurities) Gulf crude, and retooling it for the "sweet" (fairly clean) US fracked stuff is prohibitively expensive. Especially with rising hostility against fossil fuels and the electrification of transportation going forward making further production uneconomical.
Strategic reserves
Yall gonna wish Biden didn't shut down Keystone. Your refineries are built for Alberts heavy crude
Note to self, see how this ages in a year.
I think Peter's "Johnson & Johnson covid vaccine will overtake all others" prediction video is now about a year or two old.
He’s laying out a scenario. Its not a sure bet that it happens. At some point even Biden would put the clamps on Netanyahu .. . . 🤞
It’s another predictable that will lead to nothing
He’s wrong about everything
You people gush over him for some reason
@@Alopen-xb1rbBiden would never do shit. There’s too much invested in Israel and he and other politicians get too much from israel
I’m left in awe. Change, for better or worse, is on its way.
israel bombs iran.
=> for some reason iran invades Saudi Arabia via iraq?? what?
=>oil price $300
=> US stop oil export
=> chinese economics collapse. what? LOL
i give him A for imagination, but D+ for possibility of any of them happening or even make any sense.
Fourth Turning (Strauss and Howe) is here.
Change has always been happening
God is change.
Thank you captain. The sun is bright and the grass is green as well
This guy predicted 11 out of the 3 global catastrophes.
a 367% success rate is not bad 😂😂
@@reverse_meta9264Plus, the future is always coming until it's not.🔥🙈🙉🙊🌪️
He never predicts catastrophes
@sircousin9477. How many have you predicted, in books?
If you're going to criticize it, it would be nice to compare your track record with his.
@@Silica_Packer I have another job actually. I think I can criticize other people's work even if I don't do it myself.
This is just doomer clickbait. After Iran attacked Israel, they probably made a back room deal for a lesser response in return for Iran limiting their support to hamas and to a lesser extent hezbollah in the medium term.
Or if that didn’t happen and Israel attacks Iran it will either be more symbolic or at worst do some damage to their oil export but not complete. They want to keep that card in their back pocket.
I am not an expert or anything. It just seems like common sense since Israel and Iran’s interests at this moment are to de escalate. Yes, it will cost BiBi some political capital from his hard right supporters but it could gain him a much better strategic landscape militarily
well bro has to make money.
Everything on youtube is mostly for the views
I never bought was this CIA neoliberal huckster was selling
Peter, tell us about your background etc.
Yeah, Peter, you neglect one thing... we cannot refine any of the oil we pump here in the US, because most of it is light sweet as opposed to heavy sour (we're equipped/addicted to ONLY refine Saudi, Venezuelan and Canadian heavy sour), and we cannot convert the exiting refineries in any less than 10 years because you have to replace cokers with hydrocrackers, along with a ton of other changes, and that aint cheap or easy - I mean, MAYBE if you had a manhattan project type scenario, but... We are not energy independent. We are screwed, is what we are. WE simply cannot refine the crude we pump, it's a completely different process. That's the price we paid for the petro-dollar and protecting Saudi Arabia, we got cheap heavy sour in return for our protection, so all the refineries in the Us are built for Heavy Sour. Sorry.
I had to look up what a kocher was and eventually figured out you meant coker. I've now been learning about it and Hydrocrackers. This stuff is really interesting. I used to distill cannabis and hemp into distillate so I understand some of it. I live in California, and was part of the green rush. Maybe I can use my old distiller to crack some acorn fat into gasoline a quart at time because with the precipitous drop in weed prices which killed my business and 10 dollar a gallon gas. I'm screwed. Time to gather some acorns, it's the season. I need a patreon...
Ohh 🤔
@@fuocofuegofire yeah, sorry, voice dictation sucks. i wrote an entire substack article on it if you want to read it. It's under "The Revolutions". I'd post a link, but that wouldn't be cricket
What are we currently doing with our sweet crude then? Export it?
@@coonazz98 yup. What he's talking about is a state of energy Autarky, but that's not possible. If we lose our oil imports, we. are. screwed.
I did not know California's oil supply, refinery, and end market is isolated from the rest of the US.
Yep, it been that way for a while. As this video kept going I was wondering if PZ was going to mention California's precarious position. There is crude production in California but its been dropping for the last few decades, and there is a bit of importing from some other minor western USA oil fields, but the volume its no where near what's needed to supply California's thirst for fuel. EDIT: Forgot to mention that west Arizona and southern Nevada (Las Vegas) gets their petroleum products from California. Not sure if the Reno, NV area gets its supply from the San Francisco Bay area. I think Phoenix still gets fuels from Texas, they were looking at a pipeline link to CA a few years back.
they want to go zero emissions, now is there best opportunity.
Ya, we do all sorts of stupid stuff in CA. All the horror stories you hear are real.
Mountains
@@espesq
If it’s the mountains, then why aren’t other western states, such as Nevada and Arizona, also hurting?
Fascinating scenario. Stocking up on popcorn.
He left out a few things the other side will do:
1) Russia is delivering S-400 surface to air missile systems to Iran as we speak.
2) Iran has already announced via its diplomats that it will retaliate against the energy infrastructure of any country that supports an Israeli/US attack on Iran.
3) Iran will end its fatwa on nuclear arms and will have missile deliverable nukes within a year. This will pose an existential threat to Israel just like its nukes pose to Iran.
4) BRICS is gearing up to top speed because of the foreseeable oil crisis and wants to start trading oil in a different currency (probably the Yuan) among its member nations ASAP. This will seriously impact the US economy and will make the US trade deficit untenable.
@@JerehmiaBoaz 1) Did you watch the video? Do you remember how Israel bombed the surface to air missile system by Irans nuclear plant last time? Israel can shoot past S-400.
2) Israel don't care. Their calculus is about what keeps themselves safe.
3) This is what has been keeping the "peace" in the middle east for the last decades. Lets hope it stays at the treat of Iran making nukes...
4.1) BRICS is a made up term. The countries in BRICS are either natural competitors (China, India, Russia) or have no relation to the first three and are poor and getting poorer (Brasil, South Africa).
4.2) There is only one thing the US really cares about when it comes to foreign policy, and that is that the rest of the world trades in the US dollar. Anyone who tries to go against this in any meaningful way gets sanctioned or bombed (Iran, Cuba, North Korea, Russia, and increasingly China). Remember the largest air force in the world is the US Air Force. The second largest air force in the world is the US Navy. And the second largest Navy in the world (USA having the biggest) is the rest of the world combined. The US is all about protecting their global hold on power though the use of the Dollar backed by the US military.
@@JerehmiaBoazThe S400 has already been shown to be pretty bad in Ukraine and Israel. The F-22 or F-35 would destroy the S400 before it even detected them.
@@themetalhead1463 You're assuming 1) that the US already knows where these mobile platforms will be stationed, and 2) that Iran uses the S-400s conventionally. If the Iranians only activate a few of them when the Israeli planes return home low on missiles and fuel, they could very well take down an F-35. If Ukraine has demonstrated one thing it's that our military technology isn't as superior as we're led to believe.
@JerehmiaBoaz
You meant to say that Russia and Iranian military hardware isn’t as good as it’s made out to be……… 😉
Arizona checking in, we get a lot of our gas from California. Even with West Texas and New Mexico supplies no refinery is going to waste a good emergency. They would have whatever refinery accident is necessary to drive it $10 a gallon here.
Saudi Arabia has been awfully quiet with all this crap happening in their backyard
Pakistan too
They are playing the long game.
you bastard - i was having a nice morning up till this one.
boo boo boo ... and I though Zeihan was going to bring up COVID-24 ... since the election is here and the DimokRats are panicking 🙂and getting to ready to 'cheat' in NOV2024 in PA
Watch Zeihan for an understanding of current events, not for his predictions of the future. No one can accurately predict the future.
Why did I read that with an Irish accent?
That’s such a dumb comment, you clicked on it didn’t you
@@bluesteel8376exactly. You get it
There's no way America would ban oil exports under those conditions and just leave money on the table. We'd lift all regulations to double our oil output and export like crazy.
Especially since most US exports are to Canada. Because of geography, Canada exports oil to the north-western quadrant of the USA, and the US pipeline network that fans out from the gulf to the MidWest and North-East also extends to Eastern Canada. So if the US cuts exports to Eastern Canada, Canada will have to ship oil from western Canada to eastern Canada by train instead of supplying it to the NorthWest.
I hope not 😢
Did you really expect Congress to think this through before passing another 2,500 page bill?
This. We definitely wouldn't let prices spike at home, but for sure we'd jump on the opportunity to export the rest and make So Much Damned Money. MURICA.
are you suggesting the US is only producing at 1/2 capacity? What would it take to double total output? I'm not an oil analyst so it would be irresponsible of me to suggest how/how long it would take to double the output you speak of.
Clancy wrote this 30 years ago
Yeah, was thinking the same. The upside is though, the russians are already kinda spent. So an invasion of central europe is kinda unlikely. Kinda...
Did he?
@@pookachu64 the book executive decisions central war piece is an invasion of Saudi Arabia by Iran
Even a broken clock is right 2 times a day
@@alha5281 probably not spent, but i question whether they would be in position to invade europe, especially with Poland arming itself to the teeth now
We have nobody to thank but ourselves!
This black ops 6 promo is going crazy
all battlefield players when they heard Kharg Island 💀💀
Old friend we meet again....
Correction; Iran produces 3.2 million barrels of oil a day about 3% of global output. China is its largest consumer.
We’ve fought this battle hundreds of times already. 😂
I am ready. I have been practicing for 15 years
@@karlenedream7790 And? Its about stopping Iran's ability to generate funds for terrorism their largest export.
Bf3 was such a great game
California gets alot of its refined product from a refinery in St John, NB, Canada. That is one of the few refineries in the world that can produce the high quality products that are used in CA.
It might be prudent to get a few supplies-in folks.
Problem is that the United States oil refinement capacity is not tooled for refining the oil from shale.
BTW, Peter, I buy all your books because they explain geopolitcs so very well. I would love to have a beer with you sometime.
It's never stopped !
War, war never changes...
Lol
I love the fact that Peter is never correct
He is the Jim Cramer of geopolitics 😂
So we'll said😂😂😂
Yeah. We can all relax now
He said oil was going to $500 because of Ukraine war
Back in 2014 he said Russia would invade Ukraine no later than 2022……so he got that right.
So true. Has he ever done a follow up video to show he was right or wrong. Nope.
Peter Zeihan. The guy I would most like to sit down and have a beer with.
I’ve been preparing for this since 2009 on mw2
Can’t oil be shipped from G of Mexico to the West Coast? Also US would keep/substitute oil exports going to key allies like Japan and South Korea surely.
Keep in mind about half of the shale crude cannot be refined in the United States because it is too sweet and too light. California is going to get hosed regardless. Philips 66 has started the exit from California. 140,000 BBL of refined product, gone. Where will the slack come from?
But why would Iran attack Saudi Arabia because they lost their export capabilities to an Israeli attack?
Because Saudi Arabia is an ally of the US just like Israel. They can't hit us so they go for the Saudi's and cause all the chaos described. War is hell.
u should be asking why would israel attack iran's oil export capabilities instead of arms factories and nuclear facilities?
they´re using the leverage they have to get other states to exert pressure on israel not to do it
yes. same as when Saddam attacked Kuwait after things didn't go as promised to him by the US.
This is not explained at all. Makes no sense. Get attacked by a country and retaliate against a 3rd country?? Why would Iran do that?
Heading to Patreon now sir 🫡 🇺🇸
Couldn't imagine shilling half a Netflix subscription for a 10 minute video a few days early and the ability to ask a question 😂 I like Peter but that's some brutal value
lot of dumb people out there
Let’s hope sanity prevails and we all survive
Unfortunately some folks in authoritive positions in that part of the world put principle over practicality.
The world is a much more sane place than it appears. I’ve been hearing these types of predictions for decades. I also remember hearing “this is the most important election of our lifetimes” when Reagan was running against Mondale.
In a previous video he said the US oil refineries are for low-grade foreign crude oil, not US-sourced crude. Seems he should have said something about that in this video.
Keep up the good work
Ziehan is going to replace Seinfeld as comedy king. 😂
Always nice to see peter explain how the world is heading towards certain doom😊
And somehow we still enjoy listening and look forward to the next predictions.
@@wattlebough Because we are violent animals
As far as low prices domestically and high prices abroad, it’s already like that in the Gulf states.
Gulf as in Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Mexico?
@@SonnyBubbahe means the Persian gulf as in domestically. For foreign oil it’s domestically cheap but high prices abroad
I don't understand why Iran would attack Saudi Arabia in this scenario.
All you need to do is look at a history book of the middle east to understand why. There has only been one war in the middle east. It started in the middle ages and continues to this day. Hint: It's based on religion, not oil.
@@michaelrunnels7660 If that is true, why hasn't Iran attacked already?
@@shj2000 Whether motivated by corruption and greed or playing the ideological long game (or a mix of the two), the Iranian regime currently has something to lose. The scenario being posited envisions what is possible after that.
1) They have already been fighting. 2) This would be a way to cripple the world.
I'm not convinced either. I just don't see what Iran gains from destroying SA's oil facilities. It's notable that MBS has recently been fancying a rapprochement of sorts with Khamenei. The Saudis hosted Iran's foreign minister two weeks ago in Riyadh. And they're both now openly discussing conducting joint naval exercises.
Would love to know where Alaska and it's oil is in all this?
"Sone men just want to watch the world burn."
Like zeihab
Amen 🙏
China would be hit hardest and Europe would be second worst hit. India might survive (mostly if and only if the Russians try to leverage this time for a better long term deal).
@@mrintrovert5068wouldn't china be able to cut a deal with Russia as well?
@@solaireastora5394 As PZ explained in his other videos, almost all of Russia's oil goes out from its European and Black Sea ports.
Ever seen Tropic Thunder?
Iran and Saudi Arabia are holding joint military operations rn. This prediction is Dogwater dumb
I would think that whatever administration is in power could come to an agreement with the oil companies to decouple the prices but still permit exports. That would let the oil companies export still at a massive profit.
Time to buy shares in weapons manufacturers
Your politicians beat you to it…..
Buy high and sell low. A sound strategy. Go for it.
You're late to the game.
Isn’t this the same guy that said iPhones would disappear and that China would fall like 10 years ago lol.
Hes so convinced by his own words, key attribute for a confidence trickster/spiv
he's an analyst. He basically sits at a desk in a safe country and has fantasies. The only time he travels is when he is being paid to shill something. He's a fortune teller.
@@will5150 bs
He is traveling all over the world every week
No. His channel has been around for only 4 years.
😂😂
Your best hedges now are ammo, firearms, seeds, off grid electric, passive water purification, antibiotics, farmable land and community.
You forgot an underground bunker
Waste of money. None of that has been helpful for 150 years.
Makes me want to buy your book!
Hi. Are you following recent political statements in Turkey? Is Turkey going towards federation in the long run?
Calif oil comes from Alaska not Middle East.
Google says you're absolutely wrong.
I know some Alaskan crude does head there. I thought a lot more was exported. IF exports were banned, ya, it'd ALL go there.
California Energy Commission's 2023 report of state's annual crude supply.
US domestic sources are 39.3% of California's supply.
CALIFORNIA: 123,947k bbl, 23.4% of state's supply
ALASKA: 83,842k bbl, 15.9%
Foreign is 60.7% of state's supply. It breaks down
IRAQ: 69,589k 21.70% of foreign imports
SAUDI ARABIA: 50,253k 15.67%
BRAZIL: 48,367k 15.08%
ECUADOR: 46,882k 14.62%
GUYANA: 31,201k 9.73%
COLOMBIA: 19,276k 6.01%
CANADA: 13,709k 4.27%
MEXICO: 13,315k 4.15%
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: 5,944k 1.85%
Other: 22,206k 6.92%
The Middle East accounts for 125,786k bbl, which is slightly more (about 2 million bbl per annum) than what California's oil fields provide the state. The ME is roughly one-quarter of supply.
wrong. I will stop reading all of this nonsense and listen to Peter.
Human greed has no bounds
5:45 so if the rest of the world would go into a depression then how would the US import consumer goods manufactured in, say, east asia?
Your skin is glowing sir . Those TH-cam PAYCHECKS ARE COMING IN or as the kids would say “ THEY HITTIN” 😂
It's like Executive Orders by Tom Clancy. We need President Jack Ryan
I think it is interesting that it is assumed that the response to an oil shortage making it possible for the USA to get $300 a barrel for exported oil is for it to STOP exporting oil. As opposed to having the oil companies come up with a propaganda line about "Our responsibility to the world to be frugal and export everything we can" while they actually are making insane quantities of money out of the whole thing... Or am I being cynical again?
Its America.....Don't expect anything to be reasonable
The next question: Will America STILL ship bombs to Israel AND say they have the right to defend themselves after they destroy the worlds energy market??
Yes 😊
Lol is that a question
Biden last week publicly threatened to pull weapons if Israel didn't stop embargoing food aid to Gaza, with much of the region currently starving. Which indicates there's at least some US exhaustion with Netanyahu after allowing him a year to freely commit any and all war crimes without any plans on what to do next. Ultimately I think his aim is certainly not a one state solution nor a two state solution. I suspect his endgame is to drive out the Palestinians from Gaza altogether and turn it into beachfront real estate.
Will farmers still ship carbs to McDonalds after they destroy the world's health?
Oh,Oh,Oh. Live Long And Prosper🎶🌸
Like the quick (short) synopsis
This is pure sensationalism to get views and ultimately earn money on TH-cam! I fed Peter's transcript into ChatGPT and this is what the large AI language model said :
The scenario described is possible but represents a worst-case, high-impact outcome. The feasibility of targeted strikes by Israel on Iranian oil infrastructure and retaliatory actions by Iran is credible. However, the escalation to a full-scale conflict impacting 20 million barrels per day of oil is less certain. The global oil market would indeed face turmoil in such an event, but the speaker’s predictions are on the more extreme end of the spectrum. The geopolitical complexities and potential for external mediation or de-escalation reduce the overall probability of such a massive disruption.
If you follow Zeihan, he is far from hyperbolic and dramatic... his views are almost always extremely conservative in the sense of events not spiraling, and the worst case not happening, etc.. This is the first time I've seen him give a SHTF scenario.
@@powdertosser4394 Oh come on, I like peter, but he is somewhat sensationalist
So GPT is correct all the time?
@@powdertosser4394 You must be new. He always blows shit out of proportion.
It’s been about the Middle East for the last year, Pete.
For the last millennia*
Peter ‘I exist in a Worm hole’ Zeihan
So what you're saying is I should hold my Suncor stock...
Wait, but how much of our Permian Basin crude can we actually refine though?
Yea I'd like to see Zeihan response to this. Fact is USA is not totally energy independent because most of our refineries depend on heavy sour (Venezuela, Canada) whereas tight oil is light sweet.
its quite funny how people think Iran would stand a chance against Saudi lol.
Well.... With drones and rockets and united attack from Yemen, they could destroy KSA oil production. But in terms of military on the ground, both of those countries are cripples. Iran has no money for war, KSA has no soldiers who want to fight.
Both Iran and Saudis are equally incompetent in military terms the Saudis should have increased their military though instead of pumping money into fantastical projects!?!
Saudi tried to beat Iran in Yemen with modern NATO weapons and had a less then stellar result.
@@repo445-d4h The US also couldnt beat them in Yemen, does that mean Iran is stronger than the US?
@@repo445-d4h Second, Saudi already got close to getting them to surrender twice. But the US forced them to retreat because "it wasnt fair for them". Its an unwinnable war for Saudi, and its good they finally realized and are now helping the Hou*his creating problems for the US lol.
This is not a channel for a 15 year old like me 😮
Why not? If war pops off within or in 3 years then you will be the one at risk of being drafted. Telk those who can vote to vote for the president who got the US involved in 0 new wars during his presidency, Donald Trump.
Israel targets Iran, Iran invades Saudi Arabia. Dumbest prediction i have ever heard.
Yeah that logic leap is wierd
How is it weird? You do know Iran and Saudi have been jostling for influence and had a rivalry due to their Shia Sunni schism, right?
It has been threatened by the Iranian leader but Israel must do what's best for its defence and that is cut off the money in Iran and the heads of the leadership which might take a longer campaign!?!
@Zawaf. I think the invasion of Saudi was a WORST case scenario, not a probable scenario.
Exactly what i was thinking, maybe Iran invades Saudi Arabia to gain access to their export infrastructure. IDK
Pete right out of the box with a meteorological observation. You can take the boy out of Iowa…
Thanks Pete!
Fanciful speculation for a super smart dude, glad you hedged around 30%. I'd give it 5% at best :)
Wow, awesome video
Does Iran not export from Lavan Island or Siri Island? Marine tracker does show boats at both locations.
Gotta love the timing of it all. I still think we are getting a recession early next year, adding this to the equation certainly isn't making that less likely.
It is not clear why Iran would attach Saudis. what is the net gain?
Deny them regional hegemony.
Seeing as we are making enough oil to export, I guess we are pretty well insulated to oil stuff currently?
How long would iran oil be offline if it is a short time they may not strike back.
Oh btw Pete ppl wouldn't even bother commenting unless they are fans dont take comments personally from ppl you'll never meet. We type in the second you read it as permanent. It's not i change my ideas constantly its how you grow.. ty for the videos...
Peter, what is your opinion on how the Venezuelan oil market would effect the global market in this scenario?
What i am learning from most of these content creators is that no one really knows what is coming.
Take the Israeli palestine conflict of the russia ukraine war. None of use really know who is winning or whos is losing, whatever that means. We only know what we believe largely based upon the channel that we watch.
Really is that simple
Fabulous Green Screen you have there ...
Hello.
Also. Keep the ojos out on India.
Think long game.
Good luck.
Current events feel like I am watching the prologue to George Miller's The Road Warrior.
My boss is literally named George Miller … You just mindfucked me.
So if you live in CA, what should we do
So what does that do for oil prices in gas prices in Washington state?
Apocalyptic Peter is back!!
But i thought US still imports some oil. Because the one we export is the wrong kind for our refineries. So how is stopping exports make our markets super saturated?
I heard US doesn't refine its own natural oil
So yeah...
Be safe stay strong God bless
Thanks for this update. It sounds like I better scrape up all my extra pennies so that I get in on the oil futures now before world prices explode. Or, should i save those pennies so I can fill my tank when the prices explode here? I felt pretty sassy since gas is just under $3 a gallon here in Denver yesterday. And minus 3 cents on my grocery cashback...