Hey, Peter - I know you use hyperbole a lot for ease of communication, but I've watched tons of your videos where you say this is "the end" for China or Russia and such, and I've never heard you apply the kind of nuance to that claim that I imagine is in your books (or perhaps in some other videos of yours that I've missed). Could you do a vid where you explain what you think "the end" will actually look like? Obviously the territory of China is not going to drop off the map, and it's not going to completely depopulate. Life will go on, in some form. What do you think "the end" will be like and what do you think will come after?
The end is from the POV of the American business community. If a place cant be used for cheap labor or a growing market for goods/services and cant provide raw commodities then its useless to them. And they make up the bulk of Peters clients.
China has at least 200 million people under 18, and that's assuming they're overestimating their population by 80%. I just don't see how Zeihan can be right about this. He's been predicting the fall of China since 2005. After listening to him for a while, I'm starting to realize he's just saying what people in America want to hear without backing it up in any meaningful way. This goes for his demographic "collapse". I do find a lot of other stuff very insightful
Hey Peter, I started following you after you appeared on Rogan. I’m sure you hear this a lot, but man I really appreciate you doing these updates. They’re fascinating and info I’m not normally privy to. It’s become a part of my morning routine. Keep up the great work.
He has a tendency towards very selective presentation of the data. His bullishness on Japan is not understandable. Japan is currently shrinking with around 800,000 people annually, they have reached the point where more than twice as many people die each year than are born. While China is in serious trouble (agree with him there), his views are always strongly influenced by wishful thinking. So Japan's situation really is just the worst demographic situation of any country in the world apart from a few small Eastern European countries and there is little that the country can do besides slowly fading away.
Don't just take stuff at face value fact check everything You can literally be privy to anything you want to, just do your own research pls Society is doomed because of hero worship A great example is his "more free Taiwan" claim that didn't actually materialize until the 90s
@@thomaseck3210Japan is in a terrible situation, but why do you think it's worse than China? If you include the Chinese 100M chunk issue and the current state, neither is worse. They're both kind of horrendously equally bad (though I like a slightly smaller global population but yeah)
Enabled by the opacity of authoritarian bureaucracy. Opacity goes both ways-the same obscurity that keeps citizens in the dark about what the government is doing keeps the leaders in the dark about the facts on the ground.
In addition, the most plausible way to lie about the size of your incoming class of new students is to fabricate students to balance out the sexes. As a result, the vast majority of the overcount is in females which is of course even that much more disastrous towards any hope of population recovery.
It's good to hear Peter describe Taiwan as it's own country, which it is, which almost everyone but the CCP and Poor Pooh Bear realizes. Wumaos comments are welcome...
Peter, I’m an American living in Sweden for the past 30 years. Educated in political science and active in local politics, I am keenly interested in your view of the Nordics. I’ve heard you say that you are bullish about Scandinavia (Denmark, Norway and Sweden proper). The Nordics are Scandinavia plus Finland and Iceland. I suspect you might be bullish on Scandinavia due to the influx of migrants filling out the demographic pyramid. If so, it’s not the whole story. It is Sweden in particular which has been open to migrant influx for generations, going back to 60’s and 70’s when unemployment was under 1% and manufacturing companies were desperate for labour. Then there was an influx of people from Italy, Greece and Turkey. Later from Chile. That was then. Sweden is an advanced industrial country. Employment opportunities are in offering services, IT tech and coding, innovating new technologies in many sectors. Sweden needs educated labour, not factory floor labour. The old xenophobic cry “immigrants take our jobs” is not heard anymore and was never very loud to begin with. The migrant labour was necessary. The average Swede also knows, consciously or not, that most migrants take the jobs that Swedes do not want to perform themselves. Monotonous, low.-status, low-wage jobs. The problems started at least two decades ago and accelerated until 2015 when the Social Democratic government, supported by the Green Part, and two small parties. The Liberals, being a center-right party liberal in the economic sense; and the Center Party, being a party whose political positions change tack depending on which way the electoral winds are blowing. This coalition of the illiberal left decided to make Sweden a “humanitarian super-power” with a “come one, come all” open-door migration policy. It sounds great. Then reality hits. I’m not exaggerating when I tell you it’s the Wild West in Sweden. The massive influx of migrants from MENA are mostly unskilled. There are not enough of those kinds of jobs to go around in an advance economy like Sweden. Approximately 350.000 foreign-born migrates are not able to support themselves without government assistance. These are figures which can be verified. As most of these individuals have permanent residency or received Swedish citizenship, they are all entitled to the same cradle-to-grave welfare that Sweden guarantees it citizens. In other words, while the demographic pyramid might look good from afar, a more granular analysis will show that many of the people in the demographic brackets are not contributing to society but must all be cared for by current and future generations. I mentioned the Wild West. It’s not an exaggeration. There are approximately 60 government-designated “problem areas and “severe problem areas”. These are characterized by high number of migrants or Swedish-born migrant children living there with a low number of ethnic Swedish inhabitants. Very high crime rates - shootings, executions, murders, detonation of explosive devices at peoples homes (!), rampant narcotics market and home territory for scam artists (smishing, phishing, door-knocking and robbing the elderly). Verifiable statistics - Sweden has become one of the most violent countries in Europe outside of Ukraine. If you read this far, while it might seem like a xenophobic rant, it’s not. I’m sticking to the facts on the ground. This is relevant because the population pyramid might look good on paper but in reality there is a not insignificant part of the population which is costing, not contributing, to society. Then they will transition into retirement which means going from welfare to state pension and eventually into elderly care. Of course not all migrants are like this. I never said otherwise. I meet migrants all the time who work hard and for every migrant I meet that is working hard there are many more unseen migrants doing things I don’t see. But - 350.000 people foreign born who cannot get a job and probably never will, in a population of just over 10 million is very significant. Add to that the children of migrants who are born in Sweden and who have every opportunity to make something of themselves but are corrupted by the rampant street gang situation. In this country, once you’ve been put in jail for something, you’re basically FFL. Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Norway are not even close to the migrant numbers that exist in Sweden. They are doing just fine. They knew when to say “stop” to keep the situation manageable. The illiberal left in Sweden just called all detractors Xenophon’s and went on their merry way with the open door policy. Not Sweden has to take care of 350.000 people not working who should be AND increase defense spending to 2%. Here’s a fun fact for you: Look at Swedish defense spending since the 90s and migration since the 90s. Note that during this time Sweden corrected it’s economic crisis from the early 90’s, had surplus budgets and paid down it’s national debt to relatively low levels. How do you suppose this magic happened? The Cold War ended. Russia is our friend and trading partner now. We don’t need a defense force anymore. That’s how they did it. Now what TF do we do?
@@rajvinder89 with a heavy, disillusioned heart I must say it’s true. It’s all true. The situation is very bad in Sweden and despite this fact, the Swedish government just keeps adding gasoline to the fire. Maybe the current conservative government, elected in September 2022, will be able to turn the tide and clamp down on migration. Sweden needs a few decades respite to get a handle on the situation. Any labour Sweden needs, qualified or unqualified, can be recruited from the EU as any EU citizen has the right to move to, work and live in any EU member state, as long as they can support themselves financially through work, retirement or independent wealth.
@@Will Bloom Great answer and it´s obvious the quality of the people matter, which blank slatists like Zeihan pretend to ignore. treating people as interchangeable economic units, as if a 19 year old illiterate Afghan that just arrived is the same as a 19 year old native of a successful society.
I love listening to your talks and you have made our world situation so much easier to grasp! I’m having great conversations with others with my knowledge now!!!
I live in Japan. The population census of 2022 was what they expected it to be in 2027--in other words, things are getting worse at a faster rate (probably because of COVID). Robots neither consume nor pay taxes. The social safety net is quite good here, but they are feeling the pinch.
#metoo! He has minimal mentions I've seen in The end of the World is just the beginning. But I'm only 80% through... Each country probably gets a 4 or 5 paragraphs, he likes NZ a little better though due to the geographic position, as in they're used be pretty independent. That's about it I'm afraid. I've seen more details in random videos here and there but nothing major. I wish our governments would get him as a guest speaker but he doesn't fit their identity politics obsession and he's BASED in Facts and Logic. LOL.
There a great video on the birthrate issue called the Birth Gap. He was able to identify triggers in every advanced country (economic hit) that triggered a permanent reduction in birth rate, even in Scandinavian countries with strong social safety nets...
It's a great video indeed Mike. I was so shocked it shows that rich people will have a family with kids the size doesn't matter. It's the bottom third of women that are left over. So not total family size shrinkage.
(Lived/worked professionally in S. Korea for 3 yrs about 40 yrs ago. Agree w/ Peter's comments 'bout S. Korea.) I follow Peter's TH-cam presentations daily; very informative/interesting. Have read one and now reading latest book Peter wrote; I recommend them to all if only to gain more prespective on world today and ways it evolved historically. (Side benefit, you'll be "one up" on most friends/family/strangers in any serious conversations!)
South Africa has a young population, partly due to HIV AIDS that took out a chunk of the adult population. This might be the saving grace of our country 🤞
@@thebeautifulones5436 yeah he can't mention how the white population of South Africa has shrunk from 25 percent in the 1940s to 20 percent in 1990 to 8 percent right now. In the 1970s the South African Rand was almost on par with the US dollar! But now it's been reduced to junk currency. Crime and violence and grape are among the highest in the world. Without a certain demographic of people there in sufficient numbers it's over. SA should be a huge demographic warning to the rest of the western world. A canary in the coal mine
The problem in Korea is quite significant - probably even more than Peter explained. “The Koreans defy physics” yes. But in this case they are doing it negatively. The birth rate is at 0.78 now and it is likely to drop more. The population decreased last year by 120k+. The median age will hit 60 in 10 years. Billions of dollars in incentives to have kids have not worked. Schools and daycare centers are closing in droves. You can project that it will be offices and factories next.
When countries transition away from ag to industrialization, children are no longer needed to help on and perpetuate the farm.... it is, in a real sense, a slow form of societal suicide. Thomas Jefferson had this to say on the topic: "Agriculture is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth, good morals, and happiness." "The small landholders are the most precious part of a state."
One thing that helps Japan is that historically, people in that country are used to working at old age. I heard that Japan has the highest percentage of over-65 workers anywhere in the world.
amazing how Peter can talk off the top of his head, providing stats without notes or breaks in his video! Very intelligent! Second the request for Info on Africa, specifically the countries like Guinea, and their development of metals mining.
04:50 - I was talking to a Korean neighbour who had just returned from a visit to her ancestral homeland. She told me that all the Koreans who want children have moved to Australia. Certainly, if you visit the Korean centres within our city, you see plenty of children. Wonderful contribution to our country.
@A B S Korea is not an impoverished country. And the Koreans who emigrate usually leave to escape the incredible competition in their children's schools.
@A B - I agree with @HKC - Korea is far from poor, but like many countries which have achieved stunning (by Western standards) rates of industrialisation, the competition in academic achievement is brutal.
South Korea is tiny, it's only 100,000 Square Km, (A bit smaller than Kentucky) and its population is 51 million (Kentucky has 4.5 million), the place is densely populated/overcrowded yet Zeihan expects them to have a perpetually growing population and portrays a smaller population as some sort of huge catastrophe for that country.
I'm a young man born and living in South Korea(yes, I'm one of the enthusiastic contributers to extremely low birth rate for obstinately not getting married). The problems in South Korea is much more complicated than watching from outside. I can't even explain all about it in English. For example, if you can read Korean, you can easily find battlefileds of politics, economy, generation, gender, hatred, and all kinds all over the internet. Yes, even we young Korean men and women hate each other severely. So industries related to love affairs have been in a pickle, dying significantly for last ten years. Young generation already doesn't have enough jobs and hope. I can't imagine how we could 'defy physics' and make the exit for all shits of the nation. Whether or not, this sort of schizophrenic society can't be sustained is definite. Sometimes I think and fear that Peter's saying 'defying physics' could come to us in inhumane features.
The Korean people have survived Chinese, Mongolian, Japanese, Soviet, an American invasions …. To commit their own genocide and demise because they’ve become soft. Sad.
That is not good. In the U.S., we also have a gender conflict of sorts going on. But I think it's not as intense as what you're describing. Y'all need to get over yourselves and start pairing up and shagging like rabbits. The world would be a worse place without Korea and Koreans....except for Gangnum Style... that was terrible. Never do that again!!
Honestly it's much the same in America. I would say there's definite low-grade animosity between the sexes. Each sex thinks the other is privileged and arrogant. Many people choose not to have kids, out of a sense that they were owed something they didn't get as far as relationships go and the only way to make up for that is to stay single and sleep around. Feminism has resulted in women that can't understand or value motherhood, and culture in general tries to emasculate men. Dating has become more difficult as people become more atomized and online; dating apps and social media shower women in attention to the point where they lose connection with reality, while not really resulting in more relationships for anyone. Dating is supposed to work on social capital and connections, but no one has too much of those anymore, everyone just moved from someplace else. In short it's a mess. You can still go to quiet corners of America and find something different, but you basically have to have been born there to belong, so it's not for everyone.
The amount of aspirations to upper class white womanhood in South Korea is astonishing. Thats why I think feminism is so easily captured. AND as an overseas born Korean, I can and do have a say here. I am at a loss for words as to how young Koreans are not protesting this current situation and are instead ceding control to capitalist freaks. But not only that, the pattern I'm seeing here is that gender ideologies are a mask for the ways in which family is conceived in South Korea which clashes with the very family-oriented culture of Korea in general. Parents have been raising their kids very narcissistically, which is very strange for a country whose social norms are quite conservative.
@@ZeihanonGeopolitics Sir, could you please revisit a past lecture regarding how you basically noted the potential for South China possibly being a future region for an epidemic (instead their was a pandemic), my god since Covid-19 I've been astounded by your remark about that. Please sir if you ever get a chance just highlighting this past point would be something I've been waiting so long for, thank you for all your work Mr. Zeihan. I've loved reading your books and listening to your lectures since 2018.
Hey Peter. I really enjoy your conten so thank you for the time you take to give us your insights. Im very interessted to hear your thoughts on switzerland.. Or is Switzerland relatively insignificant on a global scale? Best wishes to you and your team. Felix
Thanks, I really appreciate your ability to relate this info to someone who’s not a geopolitical scholar. Since I started listening to you, around the Joe Rogan interview, you’ve talked me off the ledge of total world collapse. I was ready to start learning Mandarin or Russian. Now I understand that the future is still going to be much different and maybe difficult, but manageable here in the United States. Thank you again for your insight.
@@handroids1981 peter Zeihan has been wrong a lot. He sounds like a cia propagandist. He first claimed that japan will be fine due to population crash due to automation. That point was very juvenile. The Japanese government is in panic mode now. They lost 800,000 people last year. The second one is his comment that russia was responsible in nord stream. We all know how it turned out. I like his observations but man his conclusion and extrapolation fails like a American in Californian school.
Regardless of these videos, I have for a long time now kinda felt that the boom we have felt since the end of WWII is finally coming to an end and the age of endless growth will come to be a memory.
@@cameronbuttigieg9060 I don't think "engineering" a solution will help when the problem is largely social and psychological. People are not having children just because there isn't enough housing or that cost of living has gone up, those certainly are contributing factor. But the problem is that younger people don't value marriage, child rearing ect. I'm 25 and the people in my generational cohort are not interest in seggs let alone marriage. Thats the problem. I say this facetiously and jokingly, but you're not gonna invent a robot to make people suddenly value marriage again.
@@AFuller2020 I'm plainly going to ignore you because checking from your commenting history here, you're just here to hate on Peter instead of having a constructive conversation.
He has some older stuff. You could compare those predictions with now. The catch of coarse, many of his predictions tend to be plus or minus a few decades.
Why not take an hour and research Peter’s lectures. I did… went back ~ 8 years or so. Know this… most talking heads in media these days are Opinion Specialist for hire. Political spin influences most of what the public hears. For the most part, theses Geopolitical Strategists reference historical events, geography, and demographic data. I would not suggest that “all” geopolitical strategist are 100% truthful or accurate. So far, it seems to me that PZ is both truthful and accurate. He does have opinions and shares them. He does not care who agrees with his opinions, and the “opinions” are not what PZ is selling. Data and facts are the “goods” PZ offers his audience. Bedt
It's astounding, isn't it. But you will never hear ANY of this on the nightly news or any of the cable "news" stations. So most people have zero knowledge. It seems to me that the only difference between propaganda in the US and propaganda in places like China is that in the US we still have access to people like Peter....for now. All of the corporate media parrot the exact same "approved" content.
I guess part of the problem in China is the denial issue. In other words who ever was in charge of the census tended to pad their numbers so they weren’t the barer of bad news.
Asian crash? More like Asian stability and sustainability. Reduced population while increasing the average intelligence is kind of good for the environment, the planet and sustainability.
Technically Deng Xiaoping was NOT Mao's successor. Mao appointed Hua Guofeng, a more traditional orthodox Communist to be his immediate successor. Hua was leader from 1975 - 1978, which is when Deng politically outmaneuvered him and took control as Paramount Leader.
Taiwan is slowly moving towards building a fixed pathway to joint citizenship for foreigners. It may happen within the next decade - expect some of the Chinese diaspora in countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to move back into Taiwan - along with foreign nationals from those same countries - especially those with tech expertise - thus beefing up Taiwan's workforce.
@@danzwku There is a legal advocacy group working on it at present. They've already had a great deal of success in ironing out other areas of red tape. This would be their greatest achievement yet.
Why would they want to move to Taiwan? Unless you work for TSMC, the job opportunities there are pretty bad. Many Taiwanese I know actually moved to Mainland China for job opportunities. Only people who want to move to Taiwan are old people looking to die there.
@@hanooi7450 There are presently around 19000 APRC holders in Taiwan. These people would like a path to citizenship and work in multiple fields. Of course, SEA workers would be the ultimate recipients and they earn far more in Taiwan than they could elsewhere. I have met many American born Taiwanese who have moved to Taiwan in recent years (apparently ethnic Chinese are no longer feeling welcome in the US). Taiwan isn't as bad as you believe it to be!
4:20 "Japan posted the fewest births in its recorded history last year, continuing a seven-year decline that further aggravates the challenges of its rapidly aging society. The number of newborns fell to 799,728 in 2022, down 5.1% from a year earlier, to lowest since it began record-keeping in 1899, according to data Japan’s health ministry released Tuesday. The number of deaths rose 8.9% to 1.58 million for the same period, it said." -- Japan Times, Feb. 28, 2023
For people in the comments who simply can't imagine that China could completely fall apart in the near future, the problems are escalating rapidly - economic, housing, health care, military. This could easily lead to the collapse of the CCP, which would probably result in the immediate break-up of the country into northern and southern states. Simply look at the period before 1949, when China was effectively ruled by local warlords who were nominally subservient to the central government of Chiang Kai-Shek, and before that, the late Imperial government was even weaker. The CCP imposed a degree of centralization that hasn't been seen in China in centuries. China has fallen apart many times in its history. They typically call these periods an "Era of Warring States" or a competition between empires of the North and South (like the Song v. Northern Song, v. Liu, v. Xia empires until their conquest by the Mongols in the 13th century). The "End of China" may simply mean the end of a unified central state. That might actually be a lot healthier for the Chinese people, especially the people of South China who could re-integrate with western economies quite easily if they were free of the crushing burden of CCP control.
I think of the CCP falling, because I think about the USSR being the most influential communist country from 1917 to 1991. I think about the number of years and say "Red China started in 1949. The clock is ticking."
@Bayard1503 They can't stay together anyway. So they will be disunited. The rest of the world simply doesn't get a say about how this turns out. We can watch the shit-show, but nobody can stop the trainwreck that is China. They made their bed with totalitarianism and the one-child policy and now they are reaping the whirlwind.
While Taiwan has many of the same problems as China, they do have one major advantage: They're not actively pissing the world off. Indeed, they're actually generally well thought of in most of the world, which is certainly a major plus.
I believe any country with China-Size economy will pissing "the world" off, look at Japan in the 70s, 80s, it's US statagy to against competitors by any forces such as media, politics etc. This is just how the world goes around. If India economy is big enough, they it will become target.
@@dangonzalezb It's not a threatening posturing tho. No one in Mongolia or Taiwan looks at their "border dispute" with each other as any kind of obstacle or challenge. It's just an official stance that stays up as a matter of policy, principle and pride. It spites the PRC too, so, uh... "kek," as they say.
I’m an American farm boy in Tokyo. I’ve been here for 28 years and there are so many great social constructs that America should be emulating. Instead America seems to be doing a good job of self destruction and that saddens me when we could have the best of both worlds. Japan could also benefit from being a little more American and entrepreneurial.
This is already starting slowly with the great sorting as people flee blue states and cities. Urban is going suburb, suburb is going excerb, and excerb is going rural, that's one of the reason the left if pushing high density housing in order to try to keep people in dense cities cause it's their power base. I've seen video after video of new found interest in homesteading and farming.
@Paian Anax actually the rights of the individual citizen is much stronger than that of big business or government. What makes you think of Japan as being authoritarian?!? I see that in the West but definitely not here. Curious as to why you think this. Thanks.
@@Meinjapan2112 The former mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel is currently ambassador to Japan, and is busy pushing LGBTQ and woke ideology onto Japanese society !
The quota corruption in the schools you described is the exact same form described by Tokugawa Ieyasu around ~1600. The food allocation-was based on number of soldiers fielded per region. Turns out when it was time to assemble a fraction of the army showed up much of it was made up on paper to get extra rice. Probably go back to pre-history. West is just as corrupt - just more advanced at it.
I lived in Japan 15 years ago and the locals (my colleagues) talked about these matters all the time. They used to tell me that the government were unwilling to open the borders to other Asian nations (for immigration), though the option certainly was there. Over the last 10 or so years, I've been going back to Japan for holidays and I've noticed how many new 'foreigners' are in Japan, now, working at convenience stores and restaurants (and those kinds of jobs). Japan STILL is a destination country for a lot of neighbouring nations; I don't think China is this (at least not yet). I don't see a Nepali moving to China to work in a Family Mart -- but I saw many in Osaka, Sendai, Fukuoka and Nagoya. This might work for Japan (and Korea, to an extent), but China just doesn't have an attractive enough minimum wage to at least solve the work force (and taxation) issues...
Why does a declining population indicate loss of quality of life? If individual average income and wealth increase, it seems the fewer people are better off, even if there are fewer of them. (In California this would be welcomed)
Population is the oil and the fuel of the socio-economic system. If your engine has been designed to run with an increasing amount of both then when it doesn't get them it seizes up and never restarts. For the UK, we have attempted to fend this off with stupidly high amounts of immigration but all that will achieve is the death of our culture and the economy will still break in thirty years any way.
You need more young people to support the old people, and even more important, to consume stuff to support the entire country. Lack of young people working and consuming really messes everything up.
Taiwan has not been democratic for as long as Peter says they have been. Democracy in Taiwan didn't really start until they ditched martial law in 1987 and didn't fully bloom until the 1990s. Korea had a similar timeframe, so Japan is really the longest running democracy of the four for sure.
I did a double take when I heard that part. And he made quite a few assertions about Taiwan's rate of aging in the 70s is based on the Taiwan society being open early on.
Something Peter doesn't mention is that Taiwan is currently putting itself in a good position to bring in more immigrants, mostly from Southest Asia, to help with their population problem. Japan has done very little on the immigration front in an effort to help grow its shrinking population. Seems Taiwan is learning from the Japanese about what NOT to do.
@@davidgavin5740 I'm afraid immigration is not some "cure all". Unless you want to pretend that there are no down sides to immigration, and all the social problems and chaos that are happening in Europe, are not actually happening. Also, it's up to the Japanese people to decide what they want to do. Not for outsiders to force themselves in.
Otherwise it's just invasion and colonization 2.0. And most Asian countries have a long history of having to deal with colonization by western powers. Japan has also been a target of western colonization, ever since the Spaniards arrived there in the 1500s. Japan was the ony country to be able to fight them off, until WWII.
They are and then the ultra corrupt local government officials manipulate the data, then the mega corrupt central government officials manipulate the data and finally we get given the data which makes them look good to the world. If that's not bad enough Xi probably has only minimal information about the problem. It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch than the CCP! 🤣
Digitally = counting on your fingers 😊 Bureaucracies in democratic states can be notoriously inefficient. Inefficiency and bureaucracy are practically synonymous. A bureaucracy in an authoritarian state is even worse because of factional competition for power under an authoritarian leader or junta: the leader sets up competing and redundant factions that vie for his favor and a slice of the pie. As bad as our government bureaucracies are in the West, they are nothing like the bureaucracies of dictatorships which are riddled with corruption. I used to despise big government. I’ve become resigned to it. I’ve come to see that the job of the conservative is to act as a check on big government, not to destroy it. We are the ones that must hold the bureaucracy’s feet to the fire and keep it honest. In my mind, the honest conservative program is not to shrink or destroy big government, but to slow down its expansion and create boundaries where it shouldn’t expand.
If the Shànghǎi Police Database Hack is an indicator, they do have some grasp on the true size of their population and it's considerably less than 1.4b
Godly, Peter for president. You got my vote. You ACTUALLY know what you're talking about and not just another clown trying to gain power and popularity.
In China it is not just about not having enough young people to have kids, it is about having enough females to have kids. Despite what some in the USA may believe, the reality is men can’t have kids and the chart shows a significantly sharper decline in females vs. males starting in about 1995. In addition to the obvious decline in birth rates, what are the military, social and financial implications of having a 1/4 to 1/3 more males (with no prospect of female partners) than females in a society?
Hey Peter, given your views on climate change and environmental action, I’d love to hear your thoughts on Tesla’s investor day presentation that happened yesterday. They seem to feel that material and mining constraints will not be an issue in a transition to a primarily solar/wind/electric vehicle future, and I think there are several other points made in the presentation that I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on. Thanks!
He’s not kidding about Korea. Their ability to brow beat each other into conformity for national benefit is amazing. They will have these very physical demonstrations and stuff, but then they pretty much decide and move forward.
South East Asia is the future of that side of the world. Thailand & Malaysia's already got a momentum going. While Indonesia / Phillipines has a monopoly in prime beach front properties. All of which have a booming young demo.
Doesn't this mean that their birth rate is actually far better than previously thought? Since it's the same number of babies being born as recorded but from a smaller pool of parents?
You’re missing the form of the corruption. It’s not the same being born, it’s fictional students being counted. It’s similar to how corrupt militaries are stronger on paper so commanders can collect the salaries of imaginary soldiers. So it’s not the same number of babies being born or children entering primary school.
@@MrAstrojensen Yup. Even if the counting is accurate at the local and district level, the corruption has been going on so long that they benefit from the inaccuracy and would be hurt by factual reporting of figures. It’s similar to how production figures get fudged in a communist economic system to meet or exceed quotas.
Peter is gonna end up making more $ from TH-cam than his books if he keeps this up. A year ago it would be 20k views total. A hundred thousand views in a few hours is pretty good.
Hey, Peter - I know you use hyperbole a lot for ease of communication, but I've watched tons of your videos where you say this is "the end" for China or Russia and such, and I've never heard you apply the kind of nuance to that claim that I imagine is in your books (or perhaps in some other videos of yours that I've missed). Could you do a vid where you explain what you think "the end" will actually look like? Obviously the territory of China is not going to drop off the map, and it's not going to completely depopulate. Life will go on, in some form. What do you think "the end" will be like and what do you think will come after?
I heard him say it was the end of the current Chinese system. Not China.
The end is from the POV of the American business community. If a place cant be used for cheap labor or a growing market for goods/services and cant provide raw commodities then its useless to them. And they make up the bulk of Peters clients.
In all respects, to all countries, it is the end of their systems
China has at least 200 million people under 18, and that's assuming they're overestimating their population by 80%. I just don't see how Zeihan can be right about this. He's been predicting the fall of China since 2005. After listening to him for a while, I'm starting to realize he's just saying what people in America want to hear without backing it up in any meaningful way. This goes for his demographic "collapse". I do find a lot of other stuff very insightful
Did not expect to see you here haha 2 great channels
"Huge tracts of land" I needed a laugh this morning. For those that didn't get it that is a reference to Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
5:38 checks for Chinese sniper real quick🤣
🤣👍
Peter knows Kung fu!
Hey Peter, I started following you after you appeared on Rogan. I’m sure you hear this a lot, but man I really appreciate you doing these updates. They’re fascinating and info I’m not normally privy to. It’s become a part of my morning routine. Keep up the great work.
He has a tendency towards very selective presentation of the data. His bullishness on Japan is not understandable. Japan is currently shrinking with around 800,000 people annually, they have reached the point where more than twice as many people die each year than are born.
While China is in serious trouble (agree with him there), his views are always strongly influenced by wishful thinking. So Japan's situation really is just the worst demographic situation of any country in the world apart from a few small Eastern European countries and there is little that the country can do besides slowly fading away.
Don't just take stuff at face value fact check everything
You can literally be privy to anything you want to, just do your own research pls
Society is doomed because of hero worship
A great example is his "more free Taiwan" claim that didn't actually materialize until the 90s
He's just a really well spoken propagandist
@@thomaseck3210Japan is in a terrible situation, but why do you think it's worse than China? If you include the Chinese 100M chunk issue and the current state, neither is worse. They're both kind of horrendously equally bad (though I like a slightly smaller global population but yeah)
Same here!
Really interesting to hear about the Chinese primary school incentivization as explanation to overstated population
Enabled by the opacity of authoritarian bureaucracy. Opacity goes both ways-the same obscurity that keeps citizens in the dark about what the government is doing keeps the leaders in the dark about the facts on the ground.
I know it almost like socialism/communism/fascism don't work.... oh wait.... lol.
yup...makes sense
In addition, the most plausible way to lie about the size of your incoming class of new students is to fabricate students to balance out the sexes. As a result, the vast majority of the overcount is in females which is of course even that much more disastrous towards any hope of population recovery.
It's good to hear Peter describe Taiwan as it's own country, which it is, which almost everyone but the CCP and Poor Pooh Bear realizes. Wumaos comments are welcome...
Super glad you'll cover SE Asia. Thank you for all the information and beautiful scenery Peter.
So fascinating. Peter really has shed some light on things that you wouldn't normally ever think about
Peter, I’m an American living in Sweden for the past 30 years. Educated in political science and active in local politics, I am keenly interested in your view of the Nordics. I’ve heard you say that you are bullish about Scandinavia (Denmark, Norway and Sweden proper). The Nordics are Scandinavia plus Finland and Iceland.
I suspect you might be bullish on Scandinavia due to the influx of migrants filling out the demographic pyramid. If so, it’s not the whole story. It is Sweden in particular which has been open to migrant influx for generations, going back to 60’s and 70’s when unemployment was under 1% and manufacturing companies were desperate for labour. Then there was an influx of people from Italy, Greece and Turkey. Later from Chile. That was then.
Sweden is an advanced industrial country. Employment opportunities are in offering services, IT tech and coding, innovating new technologies in many sectors. Sweden needs educated labour, not factory floor labour.
The old xenophobic cry “immigrants take our jobs” is not heard anymore and was never very loud to begin with. The migrant labour was necessary. The average Swede also knows, consciously or not, that most migrants take the jobs that Swedes do not want to perform themselves. Monotonous, low.-status, low-wage jobs.
The problems started at least two decades ago and accelerated until 2015 when the Social Democratic government, supported by the Green Part, and two small parties. The Liberals, being a center-right party liberal in the economic sense; and the Center Party, being a party whose political positions change tack depending on which way the electoral winds are blowing. This coalition of the illiberal left decided to make Sweden a “humanitarian super-power” with a “come one, come all” open-door migration policy. It sounds great. Then reality hits.
I’m not exaggerating when I tell you it’s the Wild West in Sweden. The massive influx of migrants from MENA are mostly unskilled. There are not enough of those kinds of jobs to go around in an advance economy like Sweden. Approximately 350.000 foreign-born migrates are not able to support themselves without government assistance. These are figures which can be verified. As most of these individuals have permanent residency or received Swedish citizenship, they are all entitled to the same cradle-to-grave welfare that Sweden guarantees it citizens.
In other words, while the demographic pyramid might look good from afar, a more granular analysis will show that many of the people in the demographic brackets are not contributing to society but must all be cared for by current and future generations.
I mentioned the Wild West. It’s not an exaggeration. There are approximately 60 government-designated “problem areas and “severe problem areas”. These are characterized by high number of migrants or Swedish-born migrant children living there with a low number of ethnic Swedish inhabitants. Very high crime rates - shootings, executions, murders, detonation of explosive devices at peoples homes (!), rampant narcotics market and home territory for scam artists (smishing, phishing, door-knocking and robbing the elderly). Verifiable statistics - Sweden has become one of the most violent countries in Europe outside of Ukraine.
If you read this far, while it might seem like a xenophobic rant, it’s not. I’m sticking to the facts on the ground. This is relevant because the population pyramid might look good on paper but in reality there is a not insignificant part of the population which is costing, not contributing, to society. Then they will transition into retirement which means going from welfare to state pension and eventually into elderly care.
Of course not all migrants are like this. I never said otherwise. I meet migrants all the time who work hard and for every migrant I meet that is working hard there are many more unseen migrants doing things I don’t see. But - 350.000 people foreign born who cannot get a job and probably never will, in a population of just over 10 million is very significant. Add to that the children of migrants who are born in Sweden and who have every opportunity to make something of themselves but are corrupted by the rampant street gang situation. In this country, once you’ve been put in jail for something, you’re basically FFL.
Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Norway are not even close to the migrant numbers that exist in Sweden. They are doing just fine. They knew when to say “stop” to keep the situation manageable. The illiberal left in Sweden just called all detractors Xenophon’s and went on their merry way with the open door policy. Not Sweden has to take care of 350.000 people not working who should be AND increase defense spending to 2%.
Here’s a fun fact for you: Look at Swedish defense spending since the 90s and migration since the 90s. Note that during this time Sweden corrected it’s economic crisis from the early 90’s, had surplus budgets and paid down it’s national debt to relatively low levels. How do you suppose this magic happened? The Cold War ended. Russia is our friend and trading partner now. We don’t need a defense force anymore. That’s how they did it.
Now what TF do we do?
A very good summary, just rather depressing when Sweden was one of those countries on my "Flee to" list from here in England.
I often see memes poking fun of the situation of Sweden, didn't think they were actually true.
@@rajvinder89 with a heavy, disillusioned heart I must say it’s true. It’s all true. The situation is very bad in Sweden and despite this fact, the Swedish government just keeps adding gasoline to the fire. Maybe the current conservative government, elected in September 2022, will be able to turn the tide and clamp down on migration. Sweden needs a few decades respite to get a handle on the situation. Any labour Sweden needs, qualified or unqualified, can be recruited from the EU as any EU citizen has the right to move to, work and live in any EU member state, as long as they can support themselves financially through work, retirement or independent wealth.
@@Will Bloom Great answer and it´s obvious the quality of the people matter, which blank slatists like Zeihan pretend to ignore. treating people as interchangeable economic units, as if a 19 year old illiterate Afghan that just arrived is the same as a 19 year old native of a successful society.
Rape capital of Europe
I love listening to your talks and you have made our world situation so much easier to grasp! I’m having great conversations with others with my knowledge now!!!
²
I live in Japan. The population census of 2022 was what they expected it to be in 2027--in other words, things are getting worse at a faster rate (probably because of COVID). Robots neither consume nor pay taxes. The social safety net is quite good here, but they are feeling the pinch.
simple, start taxing the robots
Catch the Monty Python Holy Grail reference at 3:05? Standing👏👏.
I caught that Peter... " HUGE TRACTS OF LAND " Subtle, yet cutting. Extra likes for a Monty Python reference.
Well played Sir, well played
Love these contemporary geopolitical snap shots Mr. Zeihan. Thanks 👌🏾
These are so great! Would love to hear what your take is on Australia and New Zealand
#metoo!
He has minimal mentions I've seen in The end of the World is just the beginning. But I'm only 80% through... Each country probably gets a 4 or 5 paragraphs, he likes NZ a little better though due to the geographic position, as in they're used be pretty independent.
That's about it I'm afraid. I've seen more details in random videos here and there but nothing major.
I wish our governments would get him as a guest speaker but he doesn't fit their identity politics obsession and he's BASED in Facts and Logic. LOL.
Hey Peter I would like to get an opinion on the future of Australia, keep up the work mate!
You got my subscription with “huge tracks of land”. Oh and your clear knowledge of information I’ve been hearing other trusted sources mentioning.
There a great video on the birthrate issue called the Birth Gap. He was able to identify triggers in every advanced country (economic hit) that triggered a permanent reduction in birth rate, even in Scandinavian countries with strong social safety nets...
Link? Would love to learn this.
@@joshuaosborne9203 th-cam.com/video/A6s8QlIGanA/w-d-xo.html - I just finished watching myself!
It's a great video indeed Mike. I was so shocked it shows that rich people will have a family with kids the size doesn't matter. It's the bottom third of women that are left over. So not total family size shrinkage.
@@joshuaosborne9203 -- th-cam.com/video/A6s8QlIGanA/w-d-xo.html
@@joshuaosborne9203 th-cam.com/video/A6s8QlIGanA/w-d-xo.html
Nice summary. Looking forward to your south east video so I can hear your analysis of the Philippines.
(Lived/worked professionally in S. Korea for 3 yrs about 40 yrs ago. Agree w/ Peter's comments 'bout S. Korea.) I follow Peter's TH-cam presentations daily; very informative/interesting. Have read one and now reading latest book Peter wrote; I recommend them to all if only to gain more prespective on world today and ways it evolved historically. (Side benefit, you'll be "one up" on most friends/family/strangers in any serious conversations!)
I'd like to see your views on Africa -- specifically the current situation in South Africa.
South Africa has a young population, partly due to HIV AIDS that took out a chunk of the adult population. This might be the saving grace of our country 🤞
@A B also its not completely full of bantu gemosidal subhumans.
@@user-ln6wn5po2wI think they have a human related problem.
He never talks about race.
@@thebeautifulones5436 yeah he can't mention how the white population of South Africa has shrunk from 25 percent in the 1940s to 20 percent in 1990 to 8 percent right now. In the 1970s the South African Rand was almost on par with the US dollar! But now it's been reduced to junk currency. Crime and violence and grape are among the highest in the world. Without a certain demographic of people there in sufficient numbers it's over. SA should be a huge demographic warning to the rest of the western world. A canary in the coal mine
Looking forward to the next in this series :) I'm in SEA.
As someone with ADHD I appreciate these short videos, you've become one of my favorite people to listen too. Keep up the great work!
Love this series. Keep up the great work.
The problem in Korea is quite significant - probably even more than Peter explained. “The Koreans defy physics” yes. But in this case they are doing it negatively. The birth rate is at 0.78 now and it is likely to drop more. The population decreased last year by 120k+. The median age will hit 60 in 10 years. Billions of dollars in incentives to have kids have not worked. Schools and daycare centers are closing in droves. You can project that it will be offices and factories next.
Of course government incentives don't work. Men want to be independent from government. Not dependent ON government.
When I was teaching English in Turkey circa 2015/2016, there were many former ESL Teachers who had just left Korea cuz work was drying up.
Korean Civil War devastated Korea and the Korean peninsula is still technically at war
AI technology will fill the gap left by depopulation.
Ziehan is total BS.
Well, S.Korea at least have about 20m N.Koreans wanted to join. But there is no outsource polulation for China.
Thanks ..good info
When countries transition away from ag to industrialization, children are no longer needed to help on and perpetuate the farm.... it is, in a real sense, a slow form of societal suicide. Thomas Jefferson had this to say on the topic: "Agriculture is our wisest pursuit, because it will in the end contribute most to real wealth, good morals, and happiness." "The small landholders are the most precious part of a state."
Looking forward to the Southeast Asia vid, Peter. We just moved to Singapore. Curious to hear your thoughts about it.
Thank you for the view of the beautiful snow field. No jacket required? Phil Collins did that too.
One thing that helps Japan is that historically, people in that country are used to working at old age. I heard that Japan has the highest percentage of over-65 workers anywhere in the world.
currently my favourite youtube channel.
Good info Peter. Southeast Asia is what I am more interested in. I’m looking forward to hear what you have to say about it.
How come?
@@KenGold666 I have personal involvement with that region.
Welcome to Littleton (where I live) and Colorado. Always interesting to listen to your talks, have a great day
Peter I would love to hear about the demographic and economic issues of Australia.
Think he covered Australia in the video that had Canada or the US.
Thx again for the research, analysis and sharing it, Mister Zeihan. Keep keeping us on our toes, eyes open and ready to adapt and act.
Yes, do South East Asia please!
Feeding the TH-cam algorithm. Informative video. Thanks.
Because of the one child policy it was assumed that the Chinese had no reason to overcount their population.
Well, you know what they say about assumptions…
And we know what ASSumption causes.
@@Nobleheart111 What do they say about assumptions? They make an ass out of ump and tions?
@@howardhowe3453 what does ASSumption cause? Consumption of the ASS?😮 Y’all need to get your pithy sayings right. 😂
@@MarcosElMalo2 they primarily fart
Hope you cover the Philippines and Thailand in the SE Asia vid, would be interested in your perspective.
This is one of your more thoughtful posts. Good stuff.
Looking forward to watch your take on South East Asia!
Thank you
👩❤️💋👩👩❤️💋👩👩❤️💋👩👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻👩🏻❤️💋👩🏻
Always Fascinating!!!
Love these informational videos from the one and only
amazing how Peter can talk off the top of his head, providing stats without notes or breaks in his video! Very intelligent! Second the request for Info on Africa, specifically the countries like Guinea, and their development of metals mining.
Gift of the gab
It's the same story over and over again. It's memorized. Proof he's not intelligent -- Believes the jab works and still wears a mask in public.
@@mesasone2280
He should have been named
Gabriel
Remember to talk about Vietnam in your next Southeast Asian episode!!! Hopefully after 7 episodes, I finally get to hear about my home country!🙏🙏🙏
You'll be happy. I have read his take on all South East Asia, you're the next boom of economy if played right.
You have to go back.
Hey, Peter - Thanks for all the updates, started following after the Rogan podcast. Just wondering if you have any thoughts on New Zealand?? Thanks
04:50 - I was talking to a Korean neighbour who had just returned from a visit to her ancestral homeland. She told me that all the Koreans who want children have moved to Australia. Certainly, if you visit the Korean centres within our city, you see plenty of children.
Wonderful contribution to our country.
@A B S Korea is not an impoverished country. And the Koreans who emigrate usually leave to escape the incredible competition in their children's schools.
@A B - I agree with @HKC - Korea is far from poor, but like many countries which have achieved stunning (by Western standards) rates of industrialisation, the competition in academic achievement is brutal.
South Korea is tiny, it's only 100,000 Square Km, (A bit smaller than Kentucky) and its population is 51 million (Kentucky has 4.5 million), the place is densely populated/overcrowded yet Zeihan expects them to have a perpetually growing population and portrays a smaller population as some sort of huge catastrophe for that country.
Great stuff. Not going to lie, my mind went to Monte Python when you said “huge tracts of land.”
I'm a young man born and living in South Korea(yes, I'm one of the enthusiastic contributers to extremely low birth rate for obstinately not getting married). The problems in South Korea is much more complicated than watching from outside. I can't even explain all about it in English. For example, if you can read Korean, you can easily find battlefileds of politics, economy, generation, gender, hatred, and all kinds all over the internet. Yes, even we young Korean men and women hate each other severely. So industries related to love affairs have been in a pickle, dying significantly for last ten years. Young generation already doesn't have enough jobs and hope. I can't imagine how we could 'defy physics' and make the exit for all shits of the nation. Whether or not, this sort of schizophrenic society can't be sustained is definite. Sometimes I think and fear that Peter's saying 'defying physics' could come to us in inhumane features.
The Korean people have survived Chinese, Mongolian, Japanese, Soviet, an American invasions …. To commit their own genocide and demise because they’ve become soft. Sad.
That is not good. In the U.S., we also have a gender conflict of sorts going on. But I think it's not as intense as what you're describing. Y'all need to get over yourselves and start pairing up and shagging like rabbits. The world would be a worse place without Korea and Koreans....except for Gangnum Style... that was terrible. Never do that again!!
Honestly it's much the same in America. I would say there's definite low-grade animosity between the sexes. Each sex thinks the other is privileged and arrogant. Many people choose not to have kids, out of a sense that they were owed something they didn't get as far as relationships go and the only way to make up for that is to stay single and sleep around. Feminism has resulted in women that can't understand or value motherhood, and culture in general tries to emasculate men.
Dating has become more difficult as people become more atomized and online; dating apps and social media shower women in attention to the point where they lose connection with reality, while not really resulting in more relationships for anyone. Dating is supposed to work on social capital and connections, but no one has too much of those anymore, everyone just moved from someplace else.
In short it's a mess. You can still go to quiet corners of America and find something different, but you basically have to have been born there to belong, so it's not for everyone.
The amount of aspirations to upper class white womanhood in South Korea is astonishing. Thats why I think feminism is so easily captured.
AND as an overseas born Korean, I can and do have a say here. I am at a loss for words as to how young Koreans are not protesting this current situation and are instead ceding control to capitalist freaks. But not only that, the pattern I'm seeing here is that gender ideologies are a mask for the ways in which family is conceived in South Korea which clashes with the very family-oriented culture of Korea in general. Parents have been raising their kids very narcissistically, which is very strange for a country whose social norms are quite conservative.
살기 좋은 세상을 만든다는게 아니라 사람이 필요없는 세상을 만드는 게 defying gravity 의 포인트다 또래 친구.
Can't wait for it
You should publish these videos as a podcast
We do --> open.spotify.com/show/5MNYxc5dlrwwNbjQuDoyEM?si=93adaa795dac4c17
@@ZeihanonGeopolitics Sir, could you please revisit a past lecture regarding how you basically noted the potential for South China possibly being a future region for an epidemic (instead their was a pandemic), my god since Covid-19 I've been astounded by your remark about that. Please sir if you ever get a chance just highlighting this past point would be something I've been waiting so long for, thank you for all your work Mr. Zeihan. I've loved reading your books and listening to your lectures since 2018.
Hey Peter. I really enjoy your conten so thank you for the time you take to give us your insights. Im very interessted to hear your thoughts on switzerland.. Or is Switzerland relatively insignificant on a global scale?
Best wishes to you and your team.
Felix
Thanks, I really appreciate your ability to relate this info to someone who’s not a geopolitical scholar. Since I started listening to you, around the Joe Rogan interview, you’ve talked me off the ledge of total world collapse. I was ready to start learning Mandarin or Russian. Now I understand that the future is still going to be much different and maybe difficult, but manageable here in the United States. Thank you again for your insight.
The U.S. looks like you guys will be very safe. His book "The accidental super power." Is about America specifically and I highly recommend it.
@@handroids1981 peter Zeihan has been wrong a lot. He sounds like a cia propagandist. He first claimed that japan will be fine due to population crash due to automation. That point was very juvenile. The Japanese government is in panic mode now. They lost 800,000 people last year. The second one is his comment that russia was responsible in nord stream. We all know how it turned out.
I like his observations but man his conclusion and extrapolation fails like a American in Californian school.
Thank you 👍
Regardless of these videos, I have for a long time now kinda felt that the boom we have felt since the end of WWII is finally coming to an end and the age of endless growth will come to be a memory.
He's selling books and speeches, he's wrong....a. lot... watch his old vids, the ones he hasn't taken down yet.
There's nothing stopping us from ultimately having another baby boom if we engineer the situation right
@@cameronbuttigieg9060 Cost of living is sending us over the cliff.
@@cameronbuttigieg9060 I don't think "engineering" a solution will help when the problem is largely social and psychological. People are not having children just because there isn't enough housing or that cost of living has gone up, those certainly are contributing factor. But the problem is that younger people don't value marriage, child rearing ect. I'm 25 and the people in my generational cohort are not interest in seggs let alone marriage. Thats the problem.
I say this facetiously and jokingly, but you're not gonna invent a robot to make people suddenly value marriage again.
@@AFuller2020 I'm plainly going to ignore you because checking from your commenting history here, you're just here to hate on Peter instead of having a constructive conversation.
Make the next one about Southwest Asia.
Thank you for staying positive (as possible) about Korea.
Expected snowmobile to come roaring thru scene
Would be interesting to go back in a few years to all these videos that say certain things are going to happen just to see how accurate they were.
You don’t need to go back too far. In this video he predicts the collapse of the German economy.
th-cam.com/video/Ioo37-e3Yl8/w-d-xo.html
For demographics sizes it should almost certainly be set in stone
That’s his thing, lots of continual content and don’t look backwards.
He has some older stuff. You could compare those predictions with now. The catch of coarse, many of his predictions tend to be plus or minus a few decades.
Why not take an hour and research Peter’s lectures. I did… went back ~ 8 years or so.
Know this… most talking heads in media these days are Opinion Specialist for hire. Political spin influences most of what the public hears. For the most part, theses Geopolitical Strategists reference historical events, geography, and demographic data.
I would not suggest that “all” geopolitical strategist are 100% truthful or accurate. So far, it seems to me that PZ is both truthful and accurate. He does have opinions and shares them. He does not care who agrees with his opinions, and the “opinions” are not what PZ is selling. Data and facts are the “goods” PZ offers his audience.
Bedt
3:05 “Listen, Keiko” “Koji” “Koji - We live on a bloody rock! We need all the land we can get!”
Brilliant!
The fact that people are so blind to what is happening and what is coming shows me that there is a very high chance for chaos in most of the world
It's astounding, isn't it. But you will never hear ANY of this on the nightly news or any of the cable "news" stations. So most people have zero knowledge. It seems to me that the only difference between propaganda in the US and propaganda in places like China is that in the US we still have access to people like Peter....for now. All of the corporate media parrot the exact same "approved" content.
Well that’s a vague statement 😂😂
@@Justmekpc Yeah, right? Ive read fortune cookies more precise.
@@Justmekpc True, true... as you know details cost money 😁
@@Justmekpc than I should charge you for the comedy show, usually only intelligent people laugh at my jokes
I grew up in Littleton. Really miss it.
I guess part of the problem in China is the denial issue. In other words who ever was in charge of the census tended to pad their numbers so they weren’t the barer of bad news.
*bearer
Welcome to communism...
Greetings from Arvada
Asian crash? More like Asian stability and sustainability.
Reduced population while increasing the average intelligence is kind of good for the environment, the planet and sustainability.
Technically Deng Xiaoping was NOT Mao's successor. Mao appointed Hua Guofeng, a more traditional orthodox Communist to be his immediate successor. Hua was leader from 1975 - 1978, which is when Deng politically outmaneuvered him and took control as Paramount Leader.
Taiwan is slowly moving towards building a fixed pathway to joint citizenship for foreigners. It may happen within the next decade - expect some of the Chinese diaspora in countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines to move back into Taiwan - along with foreign nationals from those same countries - especially those with tech expertise - thus beefing up Taiwan's workforce.
what is your source on this?
@@danzwku There is a legal advocacy group working on it at present. They've already had a great deal of success in ironing out other areas of red tape. This would be their greatest achievement yet.
@@jontheb123 do you have an article that you read about this from? What's the legal advocacy group called?
Why would they want to move to Taiwan? Unless you work for TSMC, the job opportunities there are pretty bad. Many Taiwanese I know actually moved to Mainland China for job opportunities.
Only people who want to move to Taiwan are old people looking to die there.
@@hanooi7450 There are presently around 19000 APRC holders in Taiwan. These people would like a path to citizenship and work in multiple fields. Of course, SEA workers would be the ultimate recipients and they earn far more in Taiwan than they could elsewhere. I have met many American born Taiwanese who have moved to Taiwan in recent years (apparently ethnic Chinese are no longer feeling welcome in the US). Taiwan isn't as bad as you believe it to be!
no worries, mate
4:20 "Japan posted the fewest births in its recorded history last year, continuing a seven-year decline that further aggravates the challenges of its rapidly aging society.
The number of newborns fell to 799,728 in 2022, down 5.1% from a year earlier, to lowest since it began record-keeping in 1899, according to data Japan’s health ministry released Tuesday. The number of deaths rose 8.9% to 1.58 million for the same period, it said." -- Japan Times, Feb. 28, 2023
For people in the comments who simply can't imagine that China could completely fall apart in the near future, the problems are escalating rapidly - economic, housing, health care, military. This could easily lead to the collapse of the CCP, which would probably result in the immediate break-up of the country into northern and southern states. Simply look at the period before 1949, when China was effectively ruled by local warlords who were nominally subservient to the central government of Chiang Kai-Shek, and before that, the late Imperial government was even weaker. The CCP imposed a degree of centralization that hasn't been seen in China in centuries. China has fallen apart many times in its history. They typically call these periods an "Era of Warring States" or a competition between empires of the North and South (like the Song v. Northern Song, v. Liu, v. Xia empires until their conquest by the Mongols in the 13th century). The "End of China" may simply mean the end of a unified central state. That might actually be a lot healthier for the Chinese people, especially the people of South China who could re-integrate with western economies quite easily if they were free of the crushing burden of CCP control.
I think of the CCP falling, because I think about the USSR being the most influential communist country from 1917 to 1991. I think about the number of years and say "Red China started in 1949. The clock is ticking."
The problem is that those states always fought each other to reunite... that would be a disaster considering the nukes.
@Bayard1503 They can't stay together anyway. So they will be disunited. The rest of the world simply doesn't get a say about how this turns out. We can watch the shit-show, but nobody can stop the trainwreck that is China. They made their bed with totalitarianism and the one-child policy and now they are reaping the whirlwind.
The Great Zohan!😃
While Taiwan has many of the same problems as China, they do have one major advantage:
They're not actively pissing the world off.
Indeed, they're actually generally well thought of in most of the world, which is certainly a major plus.
The Republic of China has always considered itself the legitimate government of ALL China, not just Taiwan.
@@dangonzalezb What does this have anything to do with my above comment?
@@pieceofschmidtgamer That you talk as if Taiwan were an independent country or had the desire to become one. No, it's just a province within China.
I believe any country with China-Size economy will pissing "the world" off, look at Japan in the 70s, 80s, it's US statagy to against competitors by any forces such as media, politics etc. This is just how the world goes around. If India economy is big enough, they it will become target.
@@dangonzalezb It's not a threatening posturing tho. No one in Mongolia or Taiwan looks at their "border dispute" with each other as any kind of obstacle or challenge. It's just an official stance that stays up as a matter of policy, principle and pride. It spites the PRC too, so, uh... "kek," as they say.
Thank you sir!
Peter, learning of what the Japanese have done thus far, should the U.S. adopt a program(s) to encourage rural/small farm re-entry into our mix?
Mandates and woke culture have already done that.
I’m an American farm boy in Tokyo. I’ve been here for 28 years and there are so many great social constructs that America should be emulating. Instead America seems to be doing a good job of self destruction and that saddens me when we could have the best of both worlds. Japan could also benefit from being a little more American and entrepreneurial.
This is already starting slowly with the great sorting as people flee blue states and cities. Urban is going suburb, suburb is going excerb, and excerb is going rural, that's one of the reason the left if pushing high density housing in order to try to keep people in dense cities cause it's their power base. I've seen video after video of new found interest in homesteading and farming.
@Paian Anax actually the rights of the individual citizen is much stronger than that of big business or government. What makes you think of Japan as being authoritarian?!? I see that in the West but definitely not here. Curious as to why you think this. Thanks.
@@Meinjapan2112 The former mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel is currently ambassador to Japan, and is busy pushing LGBTQ and woke ideology onto Japanese society !
Thank you as always sir! Littleton is beautiful country!
We don't need people. We have chatGPT now
Umm.... skynet called... He's gonna need to delete you soon....
Junk in junk out
The Chinese will clone workers if they run short.
Peter at his best. Excellent analysis of world Demographics
The quota corruption in the schools you described is the exact same form described by Tokugawa Ieyasu around ~1600. The food allocation-was based on number of soldiers fielded per region. Turns out when it was time to assemble a fraction of the army showed up much of it was made up on paper to get extra rice. Probably go back to pre-history. West is just as corrupt - just more advanced at it.
Thanks, Peter, for the interesting origin of how the numbers were skewed.
Off topic question, I love your shades, what brand/model is it?
I lived in Japan 15 years ago and the locals (my colleagues) talked about these matters all the time. They used to tell me that the government were unwilling to open the borders to other Asian nations (for immigration), though the option certainly was there. Over the last 10 or so years, I've been going back to Japan for holidays and I've noticed how many new 'foreigners' are in Japan, now, working at convenience stores and restaurants (and those kinds of jobs). Japan STILL is a destination country for a lot of neighbouring nations; I don't think China is this (at least not yet). I don't see a Nepali moving to China to work in a Family Mart -- but I saw many in Osaka, Sendai, Fukuoka and Nagoya. This might work for Japan (and Korea, to an extent), but China just doesn't have an attractive enough minimum wage to at least solve the work force (and taxation) issues...
The Japanese are quite xenophobic so I'm not surprised they never considered immigration as a viable solution.
@@rajvinder89 most East Asian nations are xenophobic towards any new arrivals. As time goes on, these countries might not have any option...
Loving the long hair! Mines long rn too, every guy should grow their hair long once in their life while they still got it.
Hey PZ, do Israel please!
‘Huuuuuge tracks of land’. I totally saw what you did there. 😂
Why does a declining population indicate loss of quality of life? If individual average income and wealth increase, it seems the fewer people are better off, even if there are fewer of them. (In California this would be welcomed)
Population is the oil and the fuel of the socio-economic system. If your engine has been designed to run with an increasing amount of both then when it doesn't get them it seizes up and never restarts. For the UK, we have attempted to fend this off with stupidly high amounts of immigration but all that will achieve is the death of our culture and the economy will still break in thirty years any way.
You need more young people to support the old people, and even more important, to consume stuff to support the entire country.
Lack of young people working and consuming really messes everything up.
5:11 Defying physics. Reminds I had to carry a injured Korean off the soccer field. It was like what is this guy made of solid lead? 😆 🤣
Taiwan has not been democratic for as long as Peter says they have been. Democracy in Taiwan didn't really start until they ditched martial law in 1987 and didn't fully bloom until the 1990s. Korea had a similar timeframe, so Japan is really the longest running democracy of the four for sure.
I did a double take when I heard that part. And he made quite a few assertions about Taiwan's rate of aging in the 70s is based on the Taiwan society being open early on.
Yeah, he completely ignored the "period of white terror" - brutal military dictatorship under chiang kai shek.
Something Peter doesn't mention is that Taiwan is currently putting itself in a good position to bring in more immigrants, mostly from Southest Asia, to help with their population problem. Japan has done very little on the immigration front in an effort to help grow its shrinking population. Seems Taiwan is learning from the Japanese about what NOT to do.
@@davidgavin5740 I'm afraid immigration is not some "cure all". Unless you want to pretend that there are no down sides to immigration, and all the social problems and chaos that are happening in Europe, are not actually happening. Also, it's up to the Japanese people to decide what they want to do. Not for outsiders to force themselves in.
Otherwise it's just invasion and colonization 2.0. And most Asian countries have a long history of having to deal with colonization by western powers. Japan has also been a target of western colonization, ever since the Spaniards arrived there in the 1500s. Japan was the ony country to be able to fight them off, until WWII.
Thanks
You’d think that almost everyone in China is essentially counted digitally somehow.
They are and then the ultra corrupt local government officials manipulate the data, then the mega corrupt central government officials manipulate the data and finally we get given the data which makes them look good to the world. If that's not bad enough Xi probably has only minimal information about the problem.
It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch than the CCP! 🤣
Digitally = counting on your fingers 😊
Bureaucracies in democratic states can be notoriously inefficient. Inefficiency and bureaucracy are practically synonymous. A bureaucracy in an authoritarian state is even worse because of factional competition for power under an authoritarian leader or junta: the leader sets up competing and redundant factions that vie for his favor and a slice of the pie.
As bad as our government bureaucracies are in the West, they are nothing like the bureaucracies of dictatorships which are riddled with corruption.
I used to despise big government. I’ve become resigned to it. I’ve come to see that the job of the conservative is to act as a check on big government, not to destroy it. We are the ones that must hold the bureaucracy’s feet to the fire and keep it honest. In my mind, the honest conservative program is not to shrink or destroy big government, but to slow down its expansion and create boundaries where it shouldn’t expand.
If the Shànghǎi Police Database Hack is an indicator, they do have some grasp on the true size of their population and it's considerably less than 1.4b
@@MarcosElMalo2 Well said. 👍
Great video do the Philippines next
Godly, Peter for president. You got my vote. You ACTUALLY know what you're talking about and not just another clown trying to gain power and popularity.
Why in the world would he EVAH want to go through that ordeal? Spent a decade in DC... egos abound as do self-serving agendas.
Good morning from Denver. Sounds like Youth in Asia . Probably rough sledding.
In China it is not just about not having enough young people to have kids, it is about having enough females to have kids. Despite what some in the USA may believe, the reality is men can’t have kids and the chart shows a significantly sharper decline in females vs. males starting in about 1995. In addition to the obvious decline in birth rates, what are the military, social and financial implications of having a 1/4 to 1/3 more males (with no prospect of female partners) than females in a society?
It is what you think it is. Outwards.
Similar skew in India as well.
Hey Peter, given your views on climate change and environmental action, I’d love to hear your thoughts on Tesla’s investor day presentation that happened yesterday. They seem to feel that material and mining constraints will not be an issue in a transition to a primarily solar/wind/electric vehicle future, and I think there are several other points made in the presentation that I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on. Thanks!
He’s not kidding about Korea. Their ability to brow beat each other into conformity for national benefit is amazing. They will have these very physical demonstrations and stuff, but then they pretty much decide and move forward.
Dig the shades... what brand?
South East Asia is the future of that side of the world. Thailand & Malaysia's already got a momentum going.
While Indonesia / Phillipines has a monopoly in prime beach front properties. All of which have a booming young demo.
world has plenty of shoreline cities and places... I dont fully understand that point.
Thailand's demographics are also completely fucked. While Indonesia has a 50/50 chance of imploding into multiple countries.
@@effexon The world has plenty of tropical, white sand, beach front shorelines? What point did you not understand?
Could you please do a video on Australia thankyou
Doesn't this mean that their birth rate is actually far better than previously thought? Since it's the same number of babies being born as recorded but from a smaller pool of parents?
Don't trust any statistics coming out of China, they are both incredibly corrupt and pathological liars.
That would imply that the overcounting isn't still happening...
You’re missing the form of the corruption. It’s not the same being born, it’s fictional students being counted. It’s similar to how corrupt militaries are stronger on paper so commanders can collect the salaries of imaginary soldiers. So it’s not the same number of babies being born or children entering primary school.
@@MrAstrojensen Yup. Even if the counting is accurate at the local and district level, the corruption has been going on so long that they benefit from the inaccuracy and would be hurt by factual reporting of figures. It’s similar to how production figures get fudged in a communist economic system to meet or exceed quotas.
Not according to Peter, the world's gonna end, go out an buy his book and freeze dried crap.
Your predictions are all over the map, they make me dizzy. However, I like your demographics videos and find them informative.
Peter is gonna end up making more $ from TH-cam than his books if he keeps this up. A year ago it would be 20k views total. A hundred thousand views in a few hours is pretty good.