Tesla: FSD Licensing and Optimus Moonshot (CLIP)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 มี.ค. 2024
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Both you guys make a Great Team together. We need more Blogs like this.
Tesla is the most mind blowing story I’ve come across. Consumer Reports rates FSD near the bottom, and a few years, the other OEMs that got the higher rating will be licensing their technology.
Consumer Reports needs to be held accountable for the fake reporting
The government does not like the power Elon has, that’s the real issue and concern for Teslas future.
Yup not only Government also the deep state
All governments are afraid of competition. They don't separate economic/social power from political power because they overlap, influencing the public's consensus. However, since the private sector doesn't get a moral exemption from the public like the public sector does, the private sector must be genuinely beneficial. If only we applied the same criteria to govt. we might end war, taxation, and the law, i.e., the deadly threats.
Not clear to me why he likes kicking the hornet's nest. Its not furthering his agenda nor serving shareholder interests.
@@cwcorella. whether or not Elon is a billionaire will not change the fact that homes are not attainable by most families. When I bought a home in 2009 during the housing crisis, I was competing with foreign Chinese investors walking in with cash.
Oh shit the hell up the governemt can do whatever they want
Love the clip; you've got that Lex Friedman vibe of the magical moment in a long conversation.
Tesla has shown its only a matter time till they have it solved.
Love it when you to team up.
My thinking says that other manufacturers will need to adopt HW4/HW5/etc. in order to license FSD.
Precisely!
FUN talk. 👍
If another company achieves AGI wouldn't their program be able to drive a car, doesn't the g mean general?
Yes, the ‘G’ means ‘general’ but you and I had to learn how to drive and the only way of doing that is to get in a car and do it - nervously at first but with (hopefully) increasing confidence. Even then, you spend a lifetime refining your skills. Which is why data becomes so important and here Tesla has a massive advantage over everyone else. No-one else has 5M (and counting) data-collection devices out there, being driven every day, reporting any noteworthy situations back to base to be added to the training dataset.
Also,
How do you catch Tesla's FSD AND not violate Tesla's patents?
Why doesn't Cybertruck have FSD? I believe it's been said on this channel that it's because CT has new cameras and camera locations. FSD doesn't see the world or even the pixels. It sees raw data. So changing anything with the hardware, changes all the weights. If that is accurate, doesn't that mean Tesla couldn't sell FSD to other car manufacturers as a plug and play solution? They would all have to collect massive amounts of real world driving data before it could be vetted for them. Does that mean Roadster, and Model 2 will also need to be driven millions of miles before they can get FSD? I'm interested to hear informed responses. Maybe I'm overlooking something?
S & X have different form factors to 3 & Y, and there's fewer of them, but FSD seems the same across those models, so maybe less difficult than some comments imply?
I have wondered the same thing. It would seem that FSD would be vehicle specific and tons of data (real world or simulated) could be used to train FSD for another vehicle.
I agree it will be vehical specific until AGI is a thing. Human beings possess general intelligence and we can hop in any vehicle and drive it. Fsd is currently just AI. However if automakers are willing to pay tesla billions to customize for specific models it could be done . It will still take time as volumes will still take awhile to create the database to make their vehicles safe.
Perhaps the X, Y and Z coorinates of the sensors can be entered seperately so the AI can simply interperlate the changes and run the algorithms it as already learded without having to be trained all over again from scratch. These perameter are typically stored in Firmware. As an example, this is how the Windows operatating system can run on different hardware platforms.
Are Lucy and Mary Jane names of Optimus robots?
Just teach optimus how to drive
I thought analysts are allowed to own stock of the companies they cover?
We own 2 homes - one is in Maui, Hawaii, and one is in St. Louis, Missouri.
We spend about 1/2 the year at each, and the other house sits idle.
We have security cameras that monitor motion, fire, sound, and water and I periodically check in to view the property.
I want a robot about the size of a medium dog to patrol the vacant house.
It would climb stairs, check bathroom toilets for running water, turn lights on and off
water the plants and look for anything that I might want to check further
and become our own security guard. Even open the front door and drag in Amazon packages.
Nothing on the market can do this - heck, I'd easily spend $1,000 on this thing and would need one for each house.
Instead, the robot industry is like the rookie baseball player who swings for home runs constantly, strikes out, and never makes it to any base.
Someone needs to talk with the AI/Robotic geeks and scale down their desire to get a home run when they have nothing to work from.
Just sell everything and give your money away and become a buddhist monk!
@@brunoheggli2888 All because I want a robot?
OK...
pay someone once a week to do it. but it is a good user case for humanroid robot. many people could even rent one robot to do 24 hour watch on a property when they go on vacation. Or watch over seniors, babies when they are not around.
@@cwcorella. Hey nothing's stopping you - let us know how it turns out...
@@cwcorella.It's been noted that the rich get rich by providing value to everyone, but fail when they try charity. Free money can't create lasting benefit, that comes from the individual. It starts with early ed. Public (govt.) Ed is an oxymoron. It cripples the young mind, creating people dependent on others, on govt., That's the goal.
🤗THANKS JOHN,FOR INTERVIEWING SMR, AND HIS REASONS MAKE ALOT OF SENSE,ALONG WITH TONY SEBA,…DISRUPTIONS HAPPEN 🥶💚💚💚
No, the assumption that a competitor would need the data that Tesla has is incorrect. Note that John doesn't express agreement with SMR's statement on this and John has way more expertise than SMR. Also, note what Figure is already achieving. They are not crippled by not having car related data.
A technology sufficiently advanced is indistinguishable from magic. The OEM's need to admit they are trying to keep up with our modern Merlin.
Will
Thanks for continuing updates. I'd rather trade the stock market as it's more profitable. I make an average of $30,100 per week even though I barely trade myself.
I'm in a similar situation where should I look to increase income? Do you have any advice? What did you do? Thank you
Well explained. Thank you for bringing up this video. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of society in the country as very few are literate on the subject, thanks to Mrs Olivia Harlow the lady you ones recommended
Sounds familiar, I have heard her names on several occasions.. And both her success stories on wall street journey!
Alright, thanks for the recommendation, but how do I reach her?
Trading without professional guide.... Huh, I laugh you because you'll remain where you are or even make huge losses that will stop you from trading. This has beeb one of the biggest problems to new traders.
Ok, so when do we get FSD on the road...this of course includes legislation that will allow it... 10 years?
divide by 5
that would be great... 2 years, but you're dreaming.@@gdok6088
For example, Apple spent 10 billion dollars over 10 years and never tested a car on public roads.
Apple didn’t buy a car. Protect leader, Stuart Pidd said, “say what?”
How do you model Elon Musk’s ability to create huge new opportunities? Did you anticipate him pursuing humanoid robots when you started investing?
Talks about "energy hyper-abundance" referring specifically to wind and solar ... hmm.
Where? Where?!
wind comes from Jet Stream, solar comes from Sun 🌞
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck Aha! 👍
It's just a shame that harnessing them costs trillions, has a massive environmental footprint that destroys vast areas of the environment, relies on toxic *rare* earth minerals (so much for sustainability), and materials (blades & panels) that can't be recycled and have to be replaced regularly, whose energy generation is wholly unreliable, and therefore requires a backup power system (usually gas), and thousands of additional kilometres of transmission infrastructure to connect remote installations. Other than that, it's free. 🥳
I DONT THINK FSD will CHANGE the STOCK PRICE FSD is only ALLOWED in LAW in the US and FSD is STILL not 100% COMPLETE TESLA HAVE SAID FSD WILL BE COMPLETE SINCE 2016 ?
whenever we have an overabundance of energy, I would like that all the roads and driveways are permanently heated during winter so no more ice/snow covered roads
Smartest move from tesla should be make billions of robots and postion thensy in an lead and make cost of manufacturing to zero
I don't get it. I don't understand why a PhD-educated college professor and host doubles down with this SMR muppet. It's actually embarrassing how outclassed and out-articulated SMR is compared to John. The guy can't keep up except to restate his usual comfortable, repeated platitudes. Entertaining to see this play out, but sad, too.
The assumptions that the insane amount of data that Tesla has is required to build a functional self-driving AI is false. A human does not need to drive billions of kilometers to become a great driver, and in the near future we'll see AI models that'll be able to think more like humans do, and once that arrives, then you can develop self-driving AI based on a few thousand of kilometers of driving data.
I personally think that Tesla will be the first to make viable full self-driving, but to touch on the points by Steven, this assumption is wrong.
Repeat...
I am wondering whether the obsession with learning from massive data will suddenly end for humanoid robots. My 2 year old grandson can ride a bike without watching millions of hours of video. Will the time come soon that a humanoid robot is “smart enough” to learn what it needs to do, at which point this massive compute for learning is no longer required for most things and will that mean for Nvidia?
There is yet another option, that is train a humanoid robot to drive a non self driving car, even those with ICE engines, cars, trucks, vans,, and use humanoid bots for pedestrians or riding bikes, or motorcycles skateboards, or whatever. and then collect data from them as well as they drive special training routes where these cars are used not just to collect data but act as traffic that create the use cases that the other cars train off of.
Thus they could take a few hundred acre lot and create training road networks that can then can be populated with cars and modified as needed to create challenging situations that otherwise might be rare in actual driving situations, thus a thousand runs on such a lot might cover situations that would take millions of runs on actual roads to encounter.
Thus humanoid robots can be used to train self driving vehicles by acting as training props and self driving vehicles AI can be used to teach humanoid robots how to drive cars!
While you guys have your money invested into Tesla, a company that has not made investors money for 3 years, I have sold my tesla and am now making Piles of money on Bitcoin...I still believe TSLA is a good long term investment, but not right now..
TSLA 2900$ in year 2030. Warren Redlich
Be a looooong term TSLA investor ‼️
I disagree with stevens first premise that a competitor to FSD would HAVE to have comporable amounts of data.
Its just not evidently true. Tesla may very well have way more data than is needed for autonomy and it could just be a matter of software engineering.
He states it as if its a law of physics
Yes I agree. Just look at what Figure is achieving with bots and without Tesla's data. Secondly, not sure how relevant car data is for training bots.
John, don''t go all populist on us! SMR is a repetitive shock jock who has nothing like your technical expertise. Go for quality, not clicks.
Handing that kind of monopoly to Tesla, or anyone else, doesn't strike me as a very comfortable idea. And if everyone leaves it to Tesla, where is the creative competition going to come from in the future - do we all give up?
2:29 -
woke, and SUPERWOKE. Referring to the New York Daily News and City and State, that this writer has worked for.
It's not clear to me they can't simulate the inputs from a fleet of 5 million. vehicles. Further, is not clear to me that they can't build that data set with 250 cars. Also, most other car manufacturers would prefer to partner with Waymo.
Same, however, I can only imagine there are nuances found in 5 million sources, that could fill the gaps. Where as, cookie cutting 5 examples, a million times will not.
@@eternalbalance7703 I would imagine you could do the equivalent of a monte CARlo simulation and fill even more gaps. If you want the car to react appropriately to a Cessna landing in front of you on the freeway you're never going to get a real-life example of that but you can simulate it as many ways as you'd like.
I like Wham-O too, they got great Frisbees!
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck Slinkys rule!
Tesla licenses FSD software to other automakers. There goes the $12k investment in FSD that was a gamble that we’d make $30k per year.
BYD is building BEVs faster than Tesla
Simulation is used instead of capturing realtime data viz. SORA
Digital twins are used to design and test car designs including a digital twin in it's manufacturing and assembly lines
Digital costing is performed before the designs leave the drawing boards
All manufacturers are doing this
Stainless steel is the worst material to use to skin a car due to poisonous fumes resulting from welding and strength required is too heavy.
Stamping the innerdoors in Stainless is costly due to the energy required to soften the metal before stamping.
It's a myth that the unboxed process is required to build affordable cars. Many models in China and Europe exist under $25 000. The Seagull is sold under $10 000 and conforms to the C-NCAP safety standards which are now identical to EU-NCAP. They've already exceeded 200 000 sales in 2023 with growth expected in 2024. Tesla vehicle is only expected in 2 years to ramp up without having tested the market with a sales track record for the new models and may well flop. Tesla cannot make the primary component of it's Megapack batteries. S3XY sales may crash in the face of newer fresher competitor designs and features. Almost all new vehicles have OTA designed in
I’m not seeing anything with BYD that Tesla isn’t already doing.
BYD will also hit regulatory headwinds in both Europe and the USA.
In the USA BYD low-end vehicles aren’t suited to the greater travel distances in the USA and its poor charging infrastructure.
By the time BYD breaks in Tesla will be spun up in both the USA and China (assuming the whole market there doesn’t collapse)
Seagull is essentially a 4 wheel ebike. There is cheap EV than seagull in China. You may get 100 mile out of the charge if u r lucy. BYD production cost is not lower pound for pound, their margin is lower. Don't compare your dick to a baseball bat.
I think there is some truth here. Unfortunately, the best product rarely wins - the product that is cheap and good enough wins. Eg. VHS, Android, etc.
@@richardhost7794 Perhaps. The question then becomes is it good enough? And if it is only “good enough” will it have a service network to make up for any deficiencies.
Also will they be able to successfully localize the software required since I assume the backend will at least be pretty solid.
They definitely have the scale or at least the potential for it.
Given the home situation they will definitely have to export technology to where it can be more cheaply be assembled even with robots to help.
Should be interesting.