Are Office REITs Good Investments Today? | FAST Graphs
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 มิ.ย. 2024
- Office REITs
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will delve into the world of office real estate investment trusts (REITs) and explore whether there are any good investment opportunities in this sector. Chuck will analyze the valuation and performance of the top 10 office REITs in the country, highlighting key factors such as growth, income, and dividends. Throughout the video, Chuck will emphasize the importance of valuation and its impact on investment returns. By the end, viewers will have a better understanding of the current state of office REITs and whether they are worth considering for investment.
Time Codes:
0:00 - Introduction by Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation
0:58 - Portfolio Review
2:00 - Equity Commonwealth (EQC)
3:24 - Boston Properties Inc (BXP)
6:14 - Cousins Properties Inc (CUZ)
7:25 - Emmett Douglas Inc (DEI)
8:09 - Highwoods Properties Inc (HIW)
11:45 - JBG Smith Properties (JBGS)
11:56 - Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC)
13:05 - SL Green Realty Corp (SLG)
13:12 - Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)
13:41 - Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc (ARE)
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Disclaimer: FAST Graphs is a tool designed to reveal and present information related to financial data and investment metrics. It is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations. Instead, it offers a comprehensive view of relevant data, empowering users to make informed decisions based on their own analysis. It's your first step to a more comprehensive research and due diligence process. In short, it is a tool to think with. The opinions in this video are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned.
#dividends #reits #investing - แนวปฏิบัติและการใช้ชีวิต
Thank you Chuck.
It’s incredibly interesting and I am learning so much about valuation from your videos.
Thank you Chuck for responding to my request to cover office REITs. I agree with you in that I am only investing in a few of these higher quality names. The potential total return is irresistible at these low valuations. I upgraded my FASTgraphs subscription today to Premium and I have noticed that there are sometimes a correlation with some of the other metrics in addition to the the operational cash flow to the prices on some of these REITs. Specifically, EBITDA and sales. I have never seen you use these metrics to evaluate a REIT and was wondering if they could be beneficial in addition to OCF and FCFE. Thanks again!
Yes, EBITDA is what I often use as well as price to sales. Regards, Chuck
I think some of these REITs will blow up so be careful before you buy. Office vacancy is up. Interest rates for refinancing mortgages are up. Shopping malls are still not where they were pre COVID. So do your research. What type of properties does the REIT invest in?
Great video. And a perfect example of FASTgraphs instant visual analysis. You see the story instantly.
The fact is, it's a visual representation of 20 years of financial statements, that anyone can understand.
Like all great ideas, FASTgraphs is incredibly simple. In hindsight.
🙂
Thanks Chuck, interesting video as always. There are a few appealing opportunities in this sector but as you point out with ARE not all office REITs are equal and there are nuances affecting valuation. In the case of ARE it is ‘office’ and tenant type but when considering office REITs it is important to consider geographical spread (which States are witnessing growing populations and where are they moving from?), quality of office (grade A likely to perform best), level of debt and timetable of debt maturity, existing tenant lease durations, quality of tenant, tenant concentration size, cash position (ability to cover dividend and invest in properties) and the realistic current net asset value of properties in the short to medium term (important if the REIT needs to make dispositions to cover debt obligations).
I don't disagree, it's called comprehensive research and due diligence. Regards, Chuck
I still have some ONL from the spinoff a few years ago that I probably should have just sold. “It was free, let’s see what it does.” Well, it obviously tanked but is now trading at .3 P/B and over 8% divy. Anyone else hang on to theirs and are you adding?
Thank you Chuck, for this video of unbeloved office REITs!
How about a Part two - of unbeloved spin-offs ?
Viatris, Organon, NLOP, Kyndryll…all with very low valuation. But the business ?
Thank you Mr. Chuck. I like your videos and appreciate it. My problem with FastGraphs is that it relies on Analyst's evaluation. They are wrong 80% to 90% of the time. I like lots of free cash flow, low debt and good roce rather than what "experts" think. They are salespeople paid by msm anyway. Thanks again. I learned a ton from you about stocks and money.
For starters, FAST Graphs are a research tool designed to help you research stocks deeper and faster. Our forecasting calculators do report analyst expectations. However, our analyst scorecard also provides information on how accurate analysts have been on a given stock. Respectfully, your 80 to 90% number is way off the mark. If you are going to hold analysts to a perfect result then perhaps you are close. However, it would be naïve to expect perfect results of future earnings etc. On the other hand, if you provide a margin of error as we do on the analyst scorecard you will find that analysts are generally right within a reasonable range on most companies. But at the end of the day fast graphs are designed to help you do research and even provides quick links to other services such as MorningStar to facilitate your research efforts. Regards, Chuck
@FASTgraphs yes I totally agree. I have a great weekend Mr. Chuck! Thanks for everything you do for us
watch this th-cam.com/video/DplKV9YYzE8/w-d-xo.html
ARE looks worthy of more research, thanks Chuck
Situation in Germany in industries where home office is possible: Companies today prefer 50/50 or 60/40 home office vs. onsite but in reality it's more like 80/20. Sometimes it's 100/0 for months. They try to turn it but the process is very slow. Some rent parts of their empty campus out to other in order to save money
LOL, I wanted to know about SL Green and it was cut, so not much info on that! Thanks anyway.
I still have the new spinoff called $onl (orion office reit) I wonder if it is still good to hold?
Sadly the part about slg is cut ... I am interested in youre opinion , I can't imagine a higher quality office assets than the buildings in New York.
FFO 2018 $7.42 FFO 2022 $6.04 estimate for 2023 $5.30. It was cut because fundamentals have been deteriorating.
Dear Chuck - thank you very much for watching ARE - I would like to draw your attention to something special.
ARE makes its real estate available to biotech companies for research on new drugs etc. in laboratories.
In my opinion, the comparison is a bit flawed in that the trend back to the office at ARE is really a draw, because you can't really do your lab work from home, can you?
That's why they weren't and won't be affected by this trend in the future - this will only change when we have quantum computing on a broad scale and carry out the future molecular arrangements by calculation, but even then these results will still have to be tested in laboratories by people and tried out in experiments.
Am I seeing something wrong? I would be happy to exchange ideas with you
Hi Chuck, thanks for featuring office REITs. So, the next best option after ARE is Kilroy?
I have not completed comprehensive research and due diligence on KRC, therefore, I leave it up to you to decide.
Can you do one on opi and mpw
Thanks for your Video. Can you also take a look at IIPR - Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.?
Thank you Chuck, very good video. I have a question on your analysis of Alexandria Real Estate from 2010 to 2023. I am a bit concerned about the fact this company has increased their number of shares from about 48 million in 2010 to 171 million in 2023. Is this reflected in you numbers and does that influence your overall analysis? I would expect that this tripling of the number of shares has strongly influenced their share price and if they continue with this dilution of earnings per share their price may never reach the old levels again. Maybe I have missed something?
Thanks for the question. That's a very common practice for REITs, the issue shares to buy more real estate. More real estate generates more distributable cash.
thanks. Chuck. What is the moat of Alexandria so that Alexandria can keep growing but other office reits keep declining of the sales?
You’ve missed the entire point regarding the distinction between Alexandria and so-called “office REITs.” Did you even watch the video?
A little homework on your part - visiting Alexandria’s web site, for example - and you wouldn’t be asking questions like this. If you ever plan to invest actual capital, it’s an essential skill to acquire.
Then again, perhaps you’re just trolling.
Life sciences wHere the employees need to be on location
Do you think Opi can recover?
If a stock is cheap, and can offer a growth rate + a rate above inflation, then it is probably a good enough buy.
Where does a rate of return come from, in other words what are the components? Growth is clearly 1, a dividend if the company pays one is two, and P/E ratio expansion if the stock is undervalued is the 3rd. If valuation is low enough even a very low growth rate can generate a significant rate of return. Regards, Chuck
At this point these are all bets on multiple expansion. You can get better yields in no risk Tbills or even a simple savings account.
Throughout history, the allure of bonds have been higher yields and theoretically more safety. However, T-bills do not provide growth potential or inflation fighting long-term opportunity. To be clear, I'm referring to growth of capital and growth of dividend income or yield. Nevertheless, that the decision you must make for yourself based on your own needs, goals and objectives. Regards, Chuck
Any thoughts on PSA or MAA
See my last video: th-cam.com/video/dGVojxLjxBQ/w-d-xo.html
Do most reinvest divs on medium to long term investments? Just looking for input etc!!! 😮😮
depends on the investment objective of the investor. If they need income, they likely take their dividends. If they are investing for growth they may reinvest. It's an individual choice
Would love to see BMY, TROW and HRL. They all appear and could be highly undervalued right now
BDN woulda been a fantastic stock to cover in this also! Lots going on there of interest. Cheers Chuck!
FFO growth rate -4.18% since 2007. The dividend yield is high in the growth rate expected return positive are pluses. But this takes a real leap of faith. Regards, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs thank you Chuck, much appreciated! I’m adding for the time being 👍🏼
MAA is similar to ARE
How?
I wouldn't buy any of them despite of the valuations, ARE looks fine but that's it. This line of business isn't appealing to me.
ARE isn’t an office REIT. Labs aren’t offices.
@@soylentgreenb I know, that's the reason I say it looks fine. Still the "workers gotta work somewhere" isn't appealing to me. I prefer other reits or industries
I would of added BDN to this.
BDN Is not an office REIT?
according to Standard & Poor's GIC's it is classified as an office REIT
They may get ugly soon. Think GFC, '07-'09.
If fast graph works, shouldnt you become a fund manager investing and making billions rather than selling a pointless cheap subscription website?
Hey Jason, maybe you should become a life coach and make 10s instead of trolling useful investment channels for free.
The graph isn’t perfect nor does it fit the description of how everyone trades. But it is a powerful guide to make a decision based on numbers and valuation and i repeat YOUR own decisions . It can take months or years before you see the value of the stock . Your comment in itself is worthless and brings nothing here . Move on and listen to your hype stocks
@jasonren304
Why would you DISCREDIT a man, who posts A LOT of VALUABLE information for free (and wants to make some additional cash on the side)?
Please, tell us about your own CONTRIBUTION to the investing community 🤔 Do you run a useful YT channel or something?
If not, then be POLITE and RESPECT others for their work.
Hey, Jason, maybe he does, and is, and has made billions. And maybe, just maybe, he's trying to help you and me and us make some rational sense of a market driven by fear and greed. I do know one thing, and that is that he has raised a good son, and that says a lot about a man's character.
absolutely right, i love this