1. Ajay's insight on the essentiality of the business cycle is remarkable. 2. Xi Jingping's father, Xi Zhongxun built the great special economic zones of Guandong. These zones have their own trade policy, and it's only through them that China's tryst with globalisation began. So perhaps Xi Jingping would have done the same as Deng, had he taken over from Mao. Why would someone be less liberal than their parents? Perhaps it's just the system that's broken and not the man. A greater intellectual challenge is posed by Singapore, and to some extent, the UAE. The arguments in favour of high modernism are articulated far better by Lee Kuan Yew than communists. Furthermore, can you call Singapore a failure? Another interesting country is Turkey, which became a westernised liberal democracy with check and balances, and yet managed to collapse. Was Ataturk's project a failure? What could he have done differently?
I’d love an episode on the Israel-Palestine conflict on TSATU, maybe with an expert on the topic? As an aside, it has been sometime since you had Russ Roberts on. 🙂
Would be nice if you could do an episode on the workings, geopolitical economy factors, incentives etc of the MDBs (WB, ADB, IMF etc) and their evolution and impact uptil now, as well as relevance and potential future prospects in the current complex geopolitical context? How have the outcomes evolved due to existence of MDBs and what outcomes can we likely expect in the coming years/decades?
Couple of thoughts: 1. Perhaps, Deng's project did work. It lifted millions of people out of poverty over a 30 year period, and that's success in itself. And in many ways, it doesn't matter whether the model is failing now. Could there have been better ways of going about it, sure. 2. Could you do an episode on Singapore? I think it presents a slightly more difficult case to judge - they've done incredibly well economically - but has limitations on political freedoms. How should we think of that?
Yes Singapore is interesting. We don't know too much about it. On Deng's project. Imagine that in 1978, we told him a scenario for 45 years out. $23k of ppp GDP, well behind a poor European country (Greece is at $40k), the retreat from political reform into a sullen Leninist/Maoist regime, and a lot of difficulty on sustained growth. Would he call this a success of his project? I doubt it. I feel I understand Nehru more. Would Nehru settle for such an outcome as success? I think not. The dream was always to match British freedoms and British per capita GDP.
Ajay, outcomes matter, not intentions. Deng's outcomes were far better than Nehru's, and the fact that the Xi model is a reversal of the Deng model doesn't mean the Deng model was wrong. Lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty is a humanitarian good, and we cannot minimise that.
@@ajayshah5705 Of course Deng would deem this a success. "Some will get Rich First". That's what he basically said. Chinese growth story hasn't even Peaked yet. Gordan Chang's and Fukuyama's fills the world. China defied them and their modern acolytes. Party's primacy was fundamental to Deng and Party reforms under Xi has extended it's life by decades. It was getting rotten under the post Three Represents paradigm without a counter balancing force. Singapore isn't unique either. No State in Human History Made-it/Developed under "Real/Full" Democracy (not even the US). There isn't a single example of such an instance which is highly bizarre since social sciences doesn't usually do Absolutes but here it is. Leadership Quality & Right Governance System are 2 prerequisite for Development. There has been no exception to this paradigm. China has it, still. Those with bad information/polluted/biased Sourcing AND bad Interpretation Models don't and will never get it.
What if we replaced Deng and Nehru? Would India be even poorer than it is today? Would China be even richer than it is today? Because two countries following the same model can reach different outcomes.
When Ajay was talking in chapter 3 around "oppression of the state that supresses growth" and "two choke points"... I was going back to the seen and the unseen episode about Bihar with Mohit Satyanand and Kumar Anand. I wonder what's Ajay's take on it with the lens of "oppression of the state.." and choke points. (loved the episode... Few more minutes left ❤)
good episode, guys. this is also pretty much why I'm not a huge fan of the East Asian tiger model. It involves entertaining the argument that autocracy (as opposed to democracy) is necessary for economic development, something Amartya Sen broke down really well in Development as Freedom. and I'm glad you mentioned countries like Taiwan that eventually turned into democracies.
Excellent podcast, thanks for sharing your views! I had a question: When you say macroeconomic management done in unsustainable ways through credit and real estate(Evergrande crisis), this should lead to an expansion in M2 money supply in China.Could you elaborate on how China's inflation rate is so low(below 2%)? Is this a lack of data or manipulation of data?
Beautiful episode. Want an episode on Amit sir's writing process and researching on a topic. Would be helpful for someone who has just started writing or want to understand the process.
Going by Abby philips recommendation on the seen and the unseen, I recently read Blankets and then Asterios Polyp. Both the books made me cry... they introduced a different genre of graphic novels to me.
Hey Amit and Ajay, blown away by the wife beating question, i asked that question to my friends in an attempt to show off. We were 5 people chatting, 3 of them girls and something strange happened. I thought that the girls would appreciate that wife beating means no prosperity, but they started coming up with scenarios and examples where wife-beaters have grown rich or can grow rich. Most examples involved 'crapitalism'. And i got back to listen to you two again to notice that you say "... in the long run, true prosperity ..." How long is long run? A somebody can earn enough money and retire to a village farm house doing 'tradition' for the rest of his life. Is one human life not long enough?
At the level of a person or at the level of society? And, it's an interesting insight into the person or society. 1. A person says, I want Neanderthal values even if they are impractical 2. A person says, Okay, I will adopt the cloak of enlightenment values as it helps me (or us) to get rich 3. A person says, enlightenment values are non negotiable, now let's see what they do to prosperity.
I always try to take note of the books lying around in each episode. This week I noticed a copy of "Encylopedia of Unusual Sex Practices" resting on the table next to Amit. Eagerly waiting for an episode on the same. ;)
Hey, around the 36-37 minute mark, Ajay talks about “chinese people refusing to take vaccines/drink milk made in china”. Can you guys share some references for the same? In my work we came across some qualitative insights on F&B which spoke in a similar direction. But we haven’t been able to find any concrete reports on the same. Would be real help if you can share some links. Thanks and cheers! Great episode as always
Here are some examples -- www.voanews.com/a/chinese-buyers-put-squeeze-on-australian-baby-food-supplies/1581084.html www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-07-11/the-persistent-vaccine-hesitancy-of-china-s-elderly
Hello Amit and Ajay, I like these conversations a lot, (even more than TSTU)! Is there any way I can show my appreciation by making a small contribution towards this channel? Thank you!
I imagined Kunal Shah (CRED founder) when you mentioned the question. He has a degree in humanity and is someone who would pose these kind of questions. I would like to see Ajay Shah, Vivek Kaul and Rathin Roy in a podcast with Amit Verma. Since it cannot happen on this podcast (given the format of it), it could be on The Seen and The Unseen. It could be separate episodes if it's too difficult to get all of them together. Amit should also get Dr. Vikas Divyakirti on his podcast The Seen and The Unseen.
its like any other model.. no model is perfect... and recession is inevitable for any model or country, then once they come back, they come back stronger and reach newer heights
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Ajay has an extremely good sense of fashion.
1. Ajay's insight on the essentiality of the business cycle is remarkable.
2. Xi Jingping's father, Xi Zhongxun built the great special economic zones of Guandong. These zones have their own trade policy, and it's only through them that China's tryst with globalisation began. So perhaps Xi Jingping would have done the same as Deng, had he taken over from Mao. Why would someone be less liberal than their parents? Perhaps it's just the system that's broken and not the man.
A greater intellectual challenge is posed by Singapore, and to some extent, the UAE. The arguments in favour of high modernism are articulated far better by Lee Kuan Yew than communists. Furthermore, can you call Singapore a failure?
Another interesting country is Turkey, which became a westernised liberal democracy with check and balances, and yet managed to collapse. Was Ataturk's project a failure? What could he have done differently?
Good points about Singalore and UAE. Economic freedom has its own value, even by itself.
Ajay, you gonna let the perfect be the enemy of the good? 🙂
@@amitvarma UAE wouldn't survive. Singapore will continue to prosper.
Thank you for what you do.
Free dom is the central ifea that defines and differentiates the questions in the modern world...
It will take me a while to hear this (haven't even started) but you know you've cracked YT when there are fans who go .... first!
Haha, thank you!
I strongly wished for an Israel-Palestine issue from you two, but whatever! Anything from this duo is just a pure bliss!
Keep this coming guys!!🎉
Thanks. Not tackling Israel-Palestine because neither of us feels we have deep knowledge on it right now. 🙂
This is the episode I was (subconsciously) looking for from you guys. Thanks!
@@TanyaSingh25: you were thinking China model or Gaza?
@@ajayshah5705 The China model. Considering the recent Newsclick arrests, it seems important to understand Communism(s)
I’d love an episode on the Israel-Palestine conflict on TSATU, maybe with an expert on the topic?
As an aside, it has been sometime since you had Russ Roberts on. 🙂
Thank you for making this content ❤
Please transcribe your talk and publish it. Brilliant.
Would be nice if you could do an episode on the workings, geopolitical economy factors, incentives etc of the MDBs (WB, ADB, IMF etc) and their evolution and impact uptil now, as well as relevance and potential future prospects in the current complex geopolitical context? How have the outcomes evolved due to existence of MDBs and what outcomes can we likely expect in the coming years/decades?
Thank you for doing this Ajay ji and Amit ji
Couple of thoughts:
1. Perhaps, Deng's project did work. It lifted millions of people out of poverty over a 30 year period, and that's success in itself. And in many ways, it doesn't matter whether the model is failing now. Could there have been better ways of going about it, sure.
2. Could you do an episode on Singapore? I think it presents a slightly more difficult case to judge - they've done incredibly well economically - but has limitations on political freedoms. How should we think of that?
Yes Singapore is interesting. We don't know too much about it.
On Deng's project. Imagine that in 1978, we told him a scenario for 45 years out. $23k of ppp GDP, well behind a poor European country (Greece is at $40k), the retreat from political reform into a sullen Leninist/Maoist regime, and a lot of difficulty on sustained growth. Would he call this a success of his project? I doubt it.
I feel I understand Nehru more. Would Nehru settle for such an outcome as success? I think not. The dream was always to match British freedoms and British per capita GDP.
Ajay, outcomes matter, not intentions. Deng's outcomes were far better than Nehru's, and the fact that the Xi model is a reversal of the Deng model doesn't mean the Deng model was wrong. Lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty is a humanitarian good, and we cannot minimise that.
@@ajayshah5705 Of course Deng would deem this a success. "Some will get Rich First". That's what he basically said. Chinese growth story hasn't even Peaked yet. Gordan Chang's and Fukuyama's fills the world. China defied them and their modern acolytes. Party's primacy was fundamental to Deng and Party reforms under Xi has extended it's life by decades. It was getting rotten under the post Three Represents paradigm without a counter balancing force.
Singapore isn't unique either.
No State in Human History Made-it/Developed under "Real/Full" Democracy (not even the US). There isn't a single example of such an instance which is highly bizarre since social sciences doesn't usually do Absolutes but here it is.
Leadership Quality & Right Governance System are 2 prerequisite for Development. There has been no exception to this paradigm. China has it, still.
Those with bad information/polluted/biased Sourcing AND bad Interpretation Models don't and will never get it.
What if we replaced Deng and Nehru?
Would India be even poorer than it is today? Would China be even richer than it is today? Because two countries following the same model can reach different outcomes.
Loving the longer episodes
When Ajay was talking in chapter 3 around "oppression of the state that supresses growth" and "two choke points"... I was going back to the seen and the unseen episode about Bihar with Mohit Satyanand and Kumar Anand. I wonder what's Ajay's take on it with the lens of "oppression of the state.." and choke points. (loved the episode... Few more minutes left ❤)
good episode, guys. this is also pretty much why I'm not a huge fan of the East Asian tiger model. It involves entertaining the argument that autocracy (as opposed to democracy) is necessary for economic development, something Amartya Sen broke down really well in Development as Freedom. and I'm glad you mentioned countries like Taiwan that eventually turned into democracies.
East Asian model is not about autocracy it is about export oriented industrialisation.japan after becoming democracy grown like crazy
Excellent podcast, thanks for sharing your views! I had a question: When you say macroeconomic management done in unsustainable ways through credit and real estate(Evergrande crisis), this should lead to an expansion in M2 money supply in China.Could you elaborate on how China's inflation rate is so low(below 2%)? Is this a lack of data or manipulation of data?
ShaVarma would be a great hashtag for this show. Might make you viral.
Just so absorbing. Thank you, thank you.
Beautiful episode. Want an episode on Amit sir's writing process and researching on a topic. Would be helpful for someone who has just started writing or want to understand the process.
I gave a glimpse of it in episode 11: th-cam.com/video/-RHpE-B89Qg/w-d-xo.html
Going by Abby philips recommendation on the seen and the unseen, I recently read Blankets and then Asterios Polyp. Both the books made me cry... they introduced a different genre of graphic novels to me.
Great episode. Had fun listening.
Another great discussion. Can you lower the music between sections.. too loud and hurts ears when I listen on headphones
Yes please
I got more insights in this episode per minute than I could have got from reading on this subject. Ajay is God. The other guy is also okay I guess.
Seems like laapata ladies has passed the Bechdel test😊
Hey Amit and Ajay, blown away by the wife beating question, i asked that question to my friends in an attempt to show off. We were 5 people chatting, 3 of them girls and something strange happened. I thought that the girls would appreciate that wife beating means no prosperity, but they started coming up with scenarios and examples where wife-beaters have grown rich or can grow rich. Most examples involved 'crapitalism'. And i got back to listen to you two again to notice that you say "... in the long run, true prosperity ..." How long is long run? A somebody can earn enough money and retire to a village farm house doing 'tradition' for the rest of his life. Is one human life not long enough?
Individuals can get away with it. The question is, can a society?
At the level of a person or at the level of society?
And, it's an interesting insight into the person or society.
1. A person says, I want Neanderthal values even if they are impractical
2. A person says, Okay, I will adopt the cloak of enlightenment values as it helps me (or us) to get rich
3. A person says, enlightenment values are non negotiable, now let's see what they do to prosperity.
I am really curious as to who that friend is, who runs Asia's largest business. Any guesses ?
They need a full video explaining capitalism and it's future
I always try to take note of the books lying around in each episode. This week I noticed a copy of "Encylopedia of Unusual Sex Practices" resting on the table next to Amit. Eagerly waiting for an episode on the same. ;)
I'm afraid this is a family channel...
@@amitvarma Chanel is family business.
Hey, around the 36-37 minute mark, Ajay talks about “chinese people refusing to take vaccines/drink milk made in china”. Can you guys share some references for the same? In my work we came across some qualitative insights on F&B which spoke in a similar direction. But we haven’t been able to find any concrete reports on the same. Would be real help if you can share some links. Thanks and cheers!
Great episode as always
Here are some examples -- www.voanews.com/a/chinese-buyers-put-squeeze-on-australian-baby-food-supplies/1581084.html
www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-07-11/the-persistent-vaccine-hesitancy-of-china-s-elderly
was the guy kunal shah , the question which you quoted from your anon friend
Hello Amit and Ajay, I like these conversations a lot, (even more than TSTU)! Is there any way I can show my appreciation by making a small contribution towards this channel? Thank you!
Like, subscribe, share!
Wait Amit can’t ride a bicycle!! (I like how Ajay so kindly brushed it off lol)
And neither can particularly swim?
Intellectual super-dyad. Always brilliant
I imagined Kunal Shah (CRED founder) when you mentioned the question. He has a degree in humanity and is someone who would pose these kind of questions.
I would like to see Ajay Shah, Vivek Kaul and Rathin Roy in a podcast with Amit Verma. Since it cannot happen on this podcast (given the format of it), it could be on The Seen and The Unseen.
It could be separate episodes if it's too difficult to get all of them together.
Amit should also get Dr. Vikas Divyakirti on his podcast The Seen and The Unseen.
Dolly Chaiwalla?
Wish you had a discussion about Palestine
Is it antony tan ceo of Grab
Please make a podcast on economic inequality that left parties talk about
They did lot for 40years.now that model requires new thoughts.they are doing that.
its like any other model.. no model is perfect... and recession is inevitable for any model or country, then once they come back, they come back stronger and reach newer heights