Came back home after a 2 hr long surgery under local anesthesia for the installations of seven implants in the lower jaw. With some residual pain and bleeding, flicked through youtube seeking escape from the moment. And was I looking in the right direction ? Lo and behold Ajay, all else was forgotten, just an instant desire to understand him. The thing about Ajay, you understand a good deal of what he says and leaves you with abundant motivation to figure out the rest of the subtleties. Very grateful to Amit for doing his bit against the prevailing islamophoebic currents, and ofcourse the pleasant sound of his lovely and light humour.
The whole comment is slightly meta. Gulzar saab says दूजे के घर यु लगता है मौजे पहने रहता हु (loosely translates to - at other's house i feel i am always wearing socks) (Above i highlight the barefoot feeling). The episode starts off talking about friendship. You both are sitting barefooted(or open toes) in many of your videos. As someone who is born and brought up in india, seeing someone barefoothas two important effects on me 1. I feel the conversation is *really* informal and between friends 2. I let my guards down quickly as i feel home. So open to more ideas. Is that thing(barefoot or open toes) deliberate? Talking about friendship, i think "loneliness of indian men" is one of the greatest episodes in the seen and the unseen. Maybe you both should make an episode discussing "solutions" to that problem. (I donated right after listening to that episode).
Thanks, excellent observation. No, the barefoot thing is not deliberate, although now that you've said it, we should pretend that we strategized it! Thanks for liking the Loneliness episode. Not sure we have solutions to offer -- aside from doing barefoot shows like this. 🙂
I can't stop listening to these enlightening podcasts for hours. Some of the ideas discussed are truly thought provoking. Since the ideas being discussed are quite complex and out of understanding of the common layperson, I really wish there were simpler versions of these discussions in Hindi so that these ideas can be spread beyond the intelligentsia of the Indian society.
This was a great lesson on the history of Finance, loved it! Thanks for giving a Bird's eye view on the usefulness of Finance. I was wondering if you could talk about "What is Money? And how is it created?". This is a widely debated topic as to how is money really created, and when an individual lends to another individual for interest is he really creating new money in the process? Or only Central Banks, and Commercial Banks lending leads to the creation of new money? I would particularly love to know what Mr. Shah has to say on the topic as economics is his area of interest. And also why do economists generally not think and talk about money. I have never head any Indian youtuber or podcaster or economist EVER talk about Money. So, please can you guys do it? Two topics: History of Money, and History of Debt. What does Mr. Shah think of Dr. Richard Werner's work on money creation and inflation? For example, the theory that lending for assets like houses could lead to a bubble in the housing market, and that, that is eactly what happened in Japan pre-crash, leading to inflation in Japan. P.S.: History of Debt is covered in a book by Mr. David Graeber.
I think Mukulika in that episode mentioned about telling her grandmom that she had beef :) Always look forward to the recommendations. Will definitely read Ajay's paper on the History of Finance in India.
This show is such a pleasant intellectual stimulation. There are episodes where I absolutely disagree with some of the arguments, but man I have a ton of respect and admiration for you guys. Honestly, sometimes I use your logics/frames/arguments to illustrate points and I've become a bit of a genius in my group 😂
Whenever I listen to your conversations, I get inspired to return to my study and read. Thank you for being my 'reading companions'! I sincerely appreciate the effort that goes into producing these episodes.
Namaste Amit and Ajay sir, before your show I barely knew anything about economics and finance, now I understand some things,hope to learn more from the upcoming episodes.Started reading yesterday “In service of the Republic " .As I started reading it seemed as if I am listening to Ajay sir in the podcast 😅. Waiting for the next episode...
As usual, it was a great episode. I have a few recommendations that the gentle readers can find insightful. I'll start with the book "The Ascent of Money" by Niall Ferguson. I first watched the documentary based on the book when I was in 8th standard, circa 2007 and it changed my life for the good. I was making notes from watching a show on The History Channel and my parents were clueless about what the hell was going on. It was the first show that piqued my interest in history and money. I then read the book as well, a few years later. It was fascinating as it traced the history of currency right from the clay coins used by the conquistadors in South America to the modern derivative markets. It also has a great anecdote related to something which Ajay talked about i.e the Battle of Waterloo. It was something about Nathan 'Rthschild' using his couriers to get advanced news of Napoleon's loss and using the timing to earn a ton of money as he had stationed his brothers in the financial centers of erstwhile Europe. With my limited understanding at that age, I had made notes of this incident and it makes more sense every year when I look back
Amit and Ajay sir You have my utmost respect. These videos are full of logic and good economic sense. Thanks for your consistency in posting these videos.
This is one of the best episodes. It's a joy to listen to Mr. Shah speak so eloquently about finance. Breaks it down into crisp digestible concepts to grasp the ideas for finance noobs such as myself. And Amit as always, asks the questions we would have. Kudos!
Every conversation between Amit and any guest in Seen and the unseen is definitely thought provoking. But conversation between Amit and Ajay goes beyond that, Ajay is capable of changing thoughts that are deep in the subconscious minds. LLC explanation in the episode is best I have come across.
Ajay, hearing about your learning method was reassuring. That is the only way I learn and I've often viewed it as a drawback, so it's refreshing to find someone with a similar style.
Ajay looks 20 years younger in that shirt. Please convey my compliments if you can. The new location took some time getting used to and now I really like the background with the bookshelf and the chess board. I think you can have a little more fun with the background if you set a position on the board from a famous game, like an easter egg. I read Ajay's paper about the journey of Indian finance. I don't have a background in economics so it was a very educational experience. I had no idea that the NSE was set up so recently and that SEBI was also given statutory powers around that time. The NSE & BSE now have similar market caps and they are I think the 8th & 9th largest stock exchanges by market cap in the world. Signing off with a quote from Ajay's paper "The full ecosystem of the financial system emerged in one area: the equity market." Great episode like always!
Lovely episode. Thoroughly enjoyed it. Please keep up the good work, we really need more of such intellectual , thought provoking content. My mom recommended this show to me and now I am hooked. 😊
There was a radio station in America and you got a prize for identifying a song based on the first few seconds. This chap was on the call. The early guitar started up and was shown for 15 seconds. He struggled to figure this out. A voice could be overheard shouting to him "Whole lotta love!" And he named the song and won the prize. Then the DJ asked him: who was it, that helped you? "My mom".
I was thinking about this episode today and ended up with some thoughts: I was kinda familiar with the primary points made in this episode since I have been following you both for a long time (I think India Uncut predated TH-cam?). As an aside, I used to think I have very distinct interests because I follow interesting people in these unique niches, but lately I have found that all my "followees" tend to intersect at some juncture! The main question I took away from this episode is "how does progress occur?". William Gibson had a quote: “The future is already here - it's just not evenly distributed". I also read somewhere that when the Bronze Age started in the middle east, Europe was still in the Stone Age. It seems that the ideas from the fiscal right - such as free markets are "only" a few hundred years old (same goes for ideas from the social left - such as individual/human/gender rights). Whereas ideas like xenophobia and "freebies" are understood even by single-celled organisms. Therefore, such ideas need to percolate through societies and an intervention might be necessary to accelerate the process (like bringing Bronze Age technologies to Stone Age cultures). Interestingly, we are quicker to accept tangible ideas (radio/TV/telephone/computers) as compared to intangible ideas (such as free markets). But there's also the phenomenon where same ideas develop in separate places "simultaneously" (simultaneous being a function of the rate of exchange of information at the time). An example could be the Cramer-Rao limit, Newton and Leibniz, Darwin and Wallace, Tesla and Edison etc. So maybe new ideas occur when it is the right time? By the way, I thought the "inheritance law" explanation was weaksauce, since that wasn't the only difference between Europe and the Middle East, so hardly a "controlled experiment". I should also say that this demonstrates a failure to innovate around the inheritance problem. I should also say that we cannot just say whether the Middle East did or did not have innovation since that is not a binary - maybe (just for the sake of argument) they did not have enough "degree" of innovation as compared to Europe? So, I am curious whether there is an "Economics of Progress" which says anything about whether good ideas do end up winning. Maybe they do "eventually", but that might be on too long a timeline.
Woah! Ajay's almost an hour-long masterclass on the history of financial systems should be something that every young bloke & gal of India should listen to and cherish! And the cherry on top for lasses of the world, you will also get to experience this guy named Amit! He will stump you with his witty remarks in-between!😆 But honestly guys, can it get any better!
Hi Ajay and Amit, This was a superb episode. The explanation of the evolution of finance was so eloquent and engaging. You both are really "treasures of knowledge". Thank you for inspiring me to read more and understand the world better.
Great point about looking at how things in historical terms. I realized this about algebra after watching a recent Veritasium video about how quadratic equations were solved geometrically, but algebra had to developed to solve the cases that could not be solved using existing methods. A few questions: 1. What should happen if a promoter raises money in bad faith to build a ship but buys a Mercedes for himself using company funds instead? Is it okay to villainize such promoters or is this a normal business risk for the investor? 2. Are banking failures correlated with "excess deaths" or other measures of human suffering? 3. I read about the 350 usec speed-bump (using a 38-mile spool of optical fiber) that a stock exchange (IEX) added to prevent "latency arbitrage" and front-running by algorithmic traders. This is one exchange trying to solve the problem, but how would this kind of failure be classified and how should it be solved systemically?
On 1: Can you please see the @Harsaran discussion on this page. On 2: Finance/macroeconomic crises are indeed correlated with surges in infant mortality and such like. Getting this stuff right is important. And in doing so, we should not slip into the populist / leftist hatred of finance. Please see the text at @123456misha discussion on this page. On 3: I don't worry too much about a fair playing field in which every algo trader is trying to compete with others. Then, the interesting question is : Is society over-investing in the allocation of brainpower to fighting for milliseconds? The IEX fibre optic cable solution represents one effort (by an exchange, no coercion here) and if it improves market quality or if it attracts certain kinds of order flow, more power to them. I have long thought that a nice way to organise the most liquid stocks is to do one call auction every second, thus removing the race within the second. (On call auctions, see ifrogs.org/releases/Thomas2010_CallAuctions.html).
Fascinating podcast loved that there is a generous helping of some great book recommendations!- maybe all Peter Bernstein's are worth reading esp. A primer on Money, Banking and Gold.
Fabulous as ever🎉 The telecom, the computer & the economists made it happen big.. 😅 Amazon hires mico economists to figure out profitable low cost products? WAKF was a revelation🎉 Khadai E khidmatgar is respected 🎉 How do we access AS Sir's paper on indian finance 1947 to 2023😅
Very insightful episode! Thank you both of you for this immense transfer of knowledge! PS: Commenting here to increase your reach and enabling TH-cam baba to spread your amazing channel to the masses of this country.
If you could also talk about MMT, the extent to which this is correct, theories like the government deficit becomes a financial surplus. Much thanks guys!!
Excellent! Amit has put an important question. How to stop things from going wrong? The presence of knowledgeable state and regulatory authorities is essential for the proper functioning of the Financial markets. But then State and regulators have their own incentives to account for. In one of the podcasts, Mr Ajay Shah indicated that in hindsight the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which resulted in the 2008 financial crisis, could have been avoided had the state intervened. Clearly, the state has abdicated. While it is agreed that an individual investor in stocks is acting of his own volition, the outcomes are not exactly in his control, his careful pre-investment analysis notwithstanding. To that extent being in the stock market business is a gamble.
Thanks. I already read " In Service of the Republic". I will read this chapter again as suggested. I am not an Economist. My doubts are essentially layman's doubts. For example, in this episode, I was intrigued by "Derivatives". Supposing two persons bet on a transaction unrelated to them and create money ( a derivative as explained ), does it constitute wealth? Maybe this is a crazy doubt, I agree. @@ajayshah5705
Fantastic episode but also that the Episode line-up presents a child-in-a-candy-store for those who enjoy public policy discourses. Because pedantic, Amit - the person who Mukulika (Bannerjee) shared her beef-eating episode in Pakistan with was her grandmom not Mom; it was even more endearing that an older person (and likely even more hard-wired by religious/cultural norms) applauded Mukulika's move as it was rooted in empathy and kindness. PS- I took care to read through all the comments to be sure that I am not pointing out (belatedly & repeatedly) a tiny nit.
I thoroughly enjoy and engage and immerse in your conversations.. My criticisms are several.. only in the spirit of continuing a dialogue.. these systems are not as transparent and not corruption free as you make them out to be. Also a large,large mass of ppl who have not clue about stock market but whose lives are colonised by financialisation. What about the ethics of this? And can market govern everything? There is a case study you should engage with - private higher education sector in India especially in Tamil Nadu and othet southern states. HE privatisation distorts the field. Would love your reaponse to my questions.. in the spirit of critique and continued dialogue
Hi Ajay and Amit. I am a big fan and have listened to every episode. Thanks. My observations/ questions are: 1) Don’t you think that a lot of promoters with only 51% of ownership or even less, move the moneys around or out of the business, which is unethical , in which case they ought to be caught by the agencies, and 2) if they give personal guarantees then too they ought to be paying for the loans. Unless you are referring to an entirely different aspect of the shareholding pattern/ maturity. Please elaborate.
Yes, stealing money from a business is wrong and requires enforcement. E.g. in IBC there is a provision for the IP to kick off a look back into suspicious activities by managers in the last x years. THAT is the problem which requires enforcement. The term `wilful default' is a confused one and should be removed from the discourse. It is associated with thinking: The promoter is rich enough to personally pay the debts of the company, should she not? People make a company because they want limited liability. Generally in India, lenders force personal guarantees as a way to go back 1000 years. This is wrong. (At a legal level, yes, once there is a personal guarantee it should be enforced).
No one has appreciated Amit's book title for history of the world- from pepper to Peppa pig. I will immediately buy such book, it seems to contain the knowledge of everything.
Can we have one dedicated to the delinking of currency and Gold... US Dollar... Why, How and it's implications? Another one only on money, currency, purchasing power parity, why and how dollar became the dollar..
This episode reminded me of reading Raghuram Rajan's book Fault Lines during my undergrad days and that book was my first window into how the world of banks and finance works. But that book was about the current state of the financial world. This brief talk by Ajay about the history of the financial sector gave a good perspective. @27:30 Ajay talks of how the introduction of the share market was such a game changer and how the share market introduced the concept of liquid assets was very interesting. Any book or essay recommendations that dig into this phase of our financial history?
Ajay you spoke about how speculation is good and can lead to double thank you moment. What about the 2008 financial crisis that in part arose due to speculative purchase of real estate and led to the housing bubble? Would love to hear your thoughts on that.
There is market failure on finance. Please see the `Case studies' in www.mayin.org/ajayshah/books/isotr.html where there is a chapter on finance. We need the state to solve these market failures. But the state will always fumble and fail because it's difficult to make the state work correctly. And, even with a perfect state, there will be episodes of crisis, because the world does not fit tidy boxes.
To add to that, state overreach was a significant factor in the 2008 crisis. See this great paper by Larry White: www.cato-unbound.org/2008/12/02/lawrence-h-white/what-really-happened/
The 2008 crisis came first in the housing sector. This sector has significant government intervention, even in the U.S. The government was guaranteeing home loans, effectively subsidising them. This was done through a PSU commonly known as Fannie Mae. This government distortion may have caused the crisis in the first place.
Slightly off-topic comment. Off late Raghuram Rajan has been arguing that India should pursue growth led by the services sector. Rajan has said this in various op-eds and has now written a book called "Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future" that advocates for the same. I feel this might be mistaken. Arvind Panagriya, in his book - India Unlimited, makes an excellent point that there is no reason why we should pick and choose between manufacturing and services. As Panagriya says India can have robust growth if we walk on two legs, meaning we pursue economic growth with both the manufacturing and services sectors. What does Ajay think about this? If Ajay was in charge of our economy for the next 10 years, what would he do? What sort of reforms will he prioritize?
Sorry that was obscure. One of the great stories of the world is how the Portugese cracked the sea route to India. Remember, they had only sail boats, so the wind patterns were essential. A major constraint was carrying enough fresh water for a long voyage. They chipped away, step by step, problem solving. They figured a lonely rock that is actually close to South America, which was a source of fresh water. And then they launched from there and found the way to the cape of good hope. And then they went up the cost of East Africa and reached Madagascar, where they found a Malayali. The great book on this is : books.google.co.in/books/about/The_Career_and_Legend_of_Vasco_Da_Gama.html?id=8wqMWl6sSwwC&redir_esc=y
Yes, at some point we will do episodes on this. In the meantime, may I point you to the climate change chapter in Kelkar & Shah 2022 (the paperback) and to the work of XKDR Forum in this field (xkdr.org/field/climate-change).
Nah. There were a few book names and their connection to the episode. Tbh, I don't really know YT's definition of trigger words. So, may be. Let me recheck@@amitvarma
hindi mei baat kro, even if you are not used to. coz your target audience is very small and they do not want to consume such content coz they have fck load money and people to take care.
Yes, it can be done. But realistically, a lot of farmers (even in advanced economies) don't directly use the commodity futures. It is a specialised skill. The single great thing that commodity futures can and do provide is the price forecasting service. The commodity futures price is used by farmers, all over the world, to make decisions on sowing. May like to see th-cam.com/video/qg2alGXPebE/w-d-xo.html
![โรงเรียนตอนตี 2 โคตรหลอน..!! [โรงเรียนไดเม่]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/2MAEMwqVYh8/mqdefault.jpg)
Came back home after a 2 hr long surgery under local anesthesia for the installations of seven implants in the lower jaw. With some residual pain and bleeding, flicked through youtube seeking escape from the moment. And was I looking in the right direction ? Lo and behold Ajay, all else was forgotten, just an instant desire to understand him. The thing about Ajay, you understand a good deal of what he says and leaves you with abundant motivation to figure out the rest of the subtleties.
Very grateful to Amit for doing his bit against the prevailing islamophoebic currents, and ofcourse the pleasant sound of his lovely and light humour.
Thank you for the kind words. Hope you are fully recovered soon! 🙏
@@amitvarma Thank you Amit.
What a lovely episode!
I think the way ajay spoke during the 1st half of the episode, in my mind i was transported to that era.
The whole comment is slightly meta.
Gulzar saab says
दूजे के घर यु लगता है
मौजे पहने रहता हु
(loosely translates to - at other's house i feel i am always wearing socks)
(Above i highlight the barefoot feeling). The episode starts off talking about friendship. You both are sitting barefooted(or open toes) in many of your videos. As someone who is born and brought up in india, seeing someone barefoothas two important effects on me
1. I feel the conversation is *really* informal and between friends
2. I let my guards down quickly as i feel home. So open to more ideas.
Is that thing(barefoot or open toes) deliberate?
Talking about friendship, i think "loneliness of indian men" is one of the greatest episodes in the seen and the unseen. Maybe you both should make an episode discussing "solutions" to that problem. (I donated right after listening to that episode).
Thanks, excellent observation. No, the barefoot thing is not deliberate, although now that you've said it, we should pretend that we strategized it!
Thanks for liking the Loneliness episode. Not sure we have solutions to offer -- aside from doing barefoot shows like this. 🙂
I can't stop listening to these enlightening podcasts for hours. Some of the ideas discussed are truly thought provoking. Since the ideas being discussed are quite complex and out of understanding of the common layperson, I really wish there were simpler versions of these discussions in Hindi so that these ideas can be spread beyond the intelligentsia of the Indian society.
This was a great lesson on the history of Finance, loved it! Thanks for giving a Bird's eye view on the usefulness of Finance. I was wondering if you could talk about "What is Money? And how is it created?". This is a widely debated topic as to how is money really created, and when an individual lends to another individual for interest is he really creating new money in the process? Or only Central Banks, and Commercial Banks lending leads to the creation of new money? I would particularly love to know what Mr. Shah has to say on the topic as economics is his area of interest. And also why do economists generally not think and talk about money. I have never head any Indian youtuber or podcaster or economist EVER talk about Money. So, please can you guys do it? Two topics: History of Money, and History of Debt.
What does Mr. Shah think of Dr. Richard Werner's work on money creation and inflation? For example, the theory that lending for assets like houses could lead to a bubble in the housing market, and that, that is eactly what happened in Japan pre-crash, leading to inflation in Japan.
P.S.: History of Debt is covered in a book by Mr. David Graeber.
I think Mukulika in that episode mentioned about telling her grandmom that she had beef :) Always look forward to the recommendations. Will definitely read Ajay's paper on the History of Finance in India.
Deep state always think s about their economical goals in which Hinduism for them have holes
This show is such a pleasant intellectual stimulation. There are episodes where I absolutely disagree with some of the arguments, but man I have a ton of respect and admiration for you guys. Honestly, sometimes I use your logics/frames/arguments to illustrate points and I've become a bit of a genius in my group 😂
Whenever I listen to your conversations, I get inspired to return to my study and read. Thank you for being my 'reading companions'! I sincerely appreciate the effort that goes into producing these episodes.
Namaste Amit and Ajay sir, before your show I barely knew anything about economics and finance, now I understand some things,hope to learn more from the upcoming episodes.Started reading yesterday “In service of the Republic " .As I started reading it seemed as if I am listening to Ajay sir in the podcast 😅. Waiting for the next episode...
Thanks, Ajay and Amit for this thought-provoking episode. I hope the YT algorithm awards it to reach more small-town young guys like me.
Liked Ajay"s shirt! It suits him
As usual, it was a great episode. I have a few recommendations that the gentle readers can find insightful.
I'll start with the book "The Ascent of Money" by Niall Ferguson. I first watched the documentary based on the book when I was in 8th standard, circa 2007 and it changed my life for the good. I was making notes from watching a show on The History Channel and my parents were clueless about what the hell was going on. It was the first show that piqued my interest in history and money. I then read the book as well, a few years later. It was fascinating as it traced the history of currency right from the clay coins used by the conquistadors in South America to the modern derivative markets. It also has a great anecdote related to something which Ajay talked about i.e the Battle of Waterloo. It was something about Nathan 'Rthschild' using his couriers to get advanced news of Napoleon's loss and using the timing to earn a ton of money as he had stationed his brothers in the financial centers of erstwhile Europe. With my limited understanding at that age, I had made notes of this incident and it makes more sense every year when I look back
Thanks. Ferguson's book is also a good recco!
Amit and Ajay sir
You have my utmost respect.
These videos are full of logic and good economic sense.
Thanks for your consistency in posting these videos.
This is one of the best episodes. It's a joy to listen to Mr. Shah speak so eloquently about finance. Breaks it down into crisp digestible concepts to grasp the ideas for finance noobs such as myself. And Amit as always, asks the questions we would have. Kudos!
That last minute came out of nowhere. But a really good beginner finance primer for people like me who know next to nothing about it.
An important episode.
Every conversation between Amit and any guest in Seen and the unseen is definitely thought provoking. But conversation between Amit and Ajay goes beyond that, Ajay is capable of changing thoughts that are deep in the subconscious minds. LLC explanation in the episode is best I have come across.
Ajay, hearing about your learning method was reassuring. That is the only way I learn and I've often viewed it as a drawback, so it's refreshing to find someone with a similar style.
What a brilliant and absorbing episode!
Ajay looks 20 years younger in that shirt. Please convey my compliments if you can. The new location took some time getting used to and now I really like the background with the bookshelf and the chess board. I think you can have a little more fun with the background if you set a position on the board from a famous game, like an easter egg. I read Ajay's paper about the journey of Indian finance. I don't have a background in economics so it was a very educational experience. I had no idea that the NSE was set up so recently and that SEBI was also given statutory powers around that time. The NSE & BSE now have similar market caps and they are I think the 8th & 9th largest stock exchanges by market cap in the world. Signing off with a quote from Ajay's paper "The full ecosystem of the financial system emerged in one area: the equity market." Great episode like always!
Lovely episode. Thoroughly enjoyed it. Please keep up the good work, we really need more of such intellectual , thought provoking content. My mom recommended this show to me and now I am hooked. 😊
Please convey our thank you to your mom!
There was a radio station in America and you got a prize for identifying a song based on the first few seconds.
This chap was on the call. The early guitar started up and was shown for 15 seconds. He struggled to figure this out.
A voice could be overheard shouting to him "Whole lotta love!" And he named the song and won the prize.
Then the DJ asked him: who was it, that helped you?
"My mom".
I was thinking about this episode today and ended up with some thoughts:
I was kinda familiar with the primary points made in this episode since I have been following you both for a long time (I think India Uncut predated TH-cam?). As an aside, I used to think I have very distinct interests because I follow interesting people in these unique niches, but lately I have found that all my "followees" tend to intersect at some juncture!
The main question I took away from this episode is "how does progress occur?". William Gibson had a quote: “The future is already here - it's just not evenly distributed". I also read somewhere that when the Bronze Age started in the middle east, Europe was still in the Stone Age.
It seems that the ideas from the fiscal right - such as free markets are "only" a few hundred years old (same goes for ideas from the social left - such as individual/human/gender rights). Whereas ideas like xenophobia and "freebies" are understood even by single-celled organisms. Therefore, such ideas need to percolate through societies and an intervention might be necessary to accelerate the process (like bringing Bronze Age technologies to Stone Age cultures). Interestingly, we are quicker to accept tangible ideas (radio/TV/telephone/computers) as compared to intangible ideas (such as free markets).
But there's also the phenomenon where same ideas develop in separate places "simultaneously" (simultaneous being a function of the rate of exchange of information at the time). An example could be the Cramer-Rao limit, Newton and Leibniz, Darwin and Wallace, Tesla and Edison etc. So maybe new ideas occur when it is the right time?
By the way, I thought the "inheritance law" explanation was weaksauce, since that wasn't the only difference between Europe and the Middle East, so hardly a "controlled experiment". I should also say that this demonstrates a failure to innovate around the inheritance problem. I should also say that we cannot just say whether the Middle East did or did not have innovation since that is not a binary - maybe (just for the sake of argument) they did not have enough "degree" of innovation as compared to Europe?
So, I am curious whether there is an "Economics of Progress" which says anything about whether good ideas do end up winning. Maybe they do "eventually", but that might be on too long a timeline.
Woah! Ajay's almost an hour-long masterclass on the history of financial systems should be something that every young bloke & gal of India should listen to and cherish! And the cherry on top for lasses of the world, you will also get to experience this guy named Amit! He will stump you with his witty remarks in-between!😆
But honestly guys, can it get any better!
Another terrific show. Both are principled people. Hello from Texas.
Hi Ajay and Amit, This was a superb episode. The explanation of the evolution of finance was so eloquent and engaging. You both are really "treasures of knowledge". Thank you for inspiring me to read more and understand the world better.
Great point about looking at how things in historical terms. I realized this about algebra after watching a recent Veritasium video about how quadratic equations were solved geometrically, but algebra had to developed to solve the cases that could not be solved using existing methods.
A few questions:
1. What should happen if a promoter raises money in bad faith to build a ship but buys a Mercedes for himself using company funds instead? Is it okay to villainize such promoters or is this a normal business risk for the investor?
2. Are banking failures correlated with "excess deaths" or other measures of human suffering?
3. I read about the 350 usec speed-bump (using a 38-mile spool of optical fiber) that a stock exchange (IEX) added to prevent "latency arbitrage" and front-running by algorithmic traders. This is one exchange trying to solve the problem, but how would this kind of failure be classified and how should it be solved systemically?
On 1: Can you please see the @Harsaran discussion on this page.
On 2: Finance/macroeconomic crises are indeed correlated with surges in infant mortality and such like. Getting this stuff right is important. And in doing so, we should not slip into the populist / leftist hatred of finance. Please see the text at @123456misha discussion on this page.
On 3: I don't worry too much about a fair playing field in which every algo trader is trying to compete with others. Then, the interesting question is : Is society over-investing in the allocation of brainpower to fighting for milliseconds? The IEX fibre optic cable solution represents one effort (by an exchange, no coercion here) and if it improves market quality or if it attracts certain kinds of order flow, more power to them. I have long thought that a nice way to organise the most liquid stocks is to do one call auction every second, thus removing the race within the second. (On call auctions, see ifrogs.org/releases/Thomas2010_CallAuctions.html).
Favourite episode so far :)
Loved that chicken story.
1:19:20 I have no idea what was said......but I felt it. Truly, hospitality is the essence of humanity.
Hello Mr Shah! Read your paper and found it really interesting. It was structurally very similar to Debt by David Graeber.
So many TILs every episode ❤️
Fantastic
Mr Shah, you should do a Hardcore History type of a podcast. Your voice and insights on a topic for 6 hours. No offence Amit.
Awesome Show! Thanks both.
Fascinating podcast loved that there is a generous helping of some great book recommendations!- maybe all Peter Bernstein's are worth reading esp. A primer on Money, Banking and Gold.
Orgasmic conversation between two intellectual giants
Fabulous as ever🎉
The telecom, the computer & the economists made it happen big.. 😅
Amazon hires mico economists to figure out profitable low cost products?
WAKF was a revelation🎉
Khadai E khidmatgar is respected 🎉
How do we access AS Sir's paper on indian finance 1947 to 2023😅
The url of the paper is in the show notes.
we want another finance episode plzzzz
Damn ! So beautifully explained. I just thought that I am sitting in Wall Street watching these bankers talk
First!
Very insightful episode! Thank you both of you for this immense transfer of knowledge!
PS: Commenting here to increase your reach and enabling TH-cam baba to spread your amazing channel to the masses of this country.
Best episode.
g
Great episode. Thanks
If you could also talk about MMT, the extent to which this is correct, theories like the government deficit becomes a financial surplus. Much thanks guys!!
MMT is nonsense, pure snake oil.
@@amitvarmawhat is mmt?
Excellent!
Amit has put an important question. How to stop things from going wrong? The presence of knowledgeable state and regulatory
authorities is essential for the proper functioning of the Financial markets. But then State and regulators have their own incentives to
account for. In one of the podcasts, Mr Ajay Shah indicated that in hindsight the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which resulted in the 2008 financial crisis, could have been avoided had the state intervened. Clearly, the state has abdicated. While it is agreed that an individual investor in stocks is acting of his own volition, the outcomes are not exactly in his control, his careful pre-investment analysis notwithstanding. To that extent being in the stock market business is a gamble.
Can you please see the text at @123456misha ahead?
Thanks.
I already read " In Service of the Republic". I will read this chapter again as suggested.
I am not an Economist. My doubts are essentially layman's doubts.
For example, in this episode, I was intrigued by "Derivatives".
Supposing two persons bet on a transaction unrelated to them and create money ( a derivative as explained ), does it constitute wealth?
Maybe this is a crazy doubt, I agree.
@@ajayshah5705
Fantastic episode but also that the Episode line-up presents a child-in-a-candy-store for those who enjoy public policy discourses.
Because pedantic, Amit - the person who Mukulika (Bannerjee) shared her beef-eating episode in Pakistan with was her grandmom not Mom; it was even more endearing that an older person (and likely even more hard-wired by religious/cultural norms) applauded Mukulika's move as it was rooted in empathy and kindness.
PS- I took care to read through all the comments to be sure that I am not pointing out (belatedly & repeatedly) a tiny nit.
Thanks! My memory, my memory...
Hi Ajay! Brilliant masterclass... can you recommend some books that layout the history of financial institutions just like you did?
We are the nation of Arthashastra sir, and nobody talks about Artha. 😭
I thoroughly enjoy and engage and immerse in your conversations.. My criticisms are several.. only in the spirit of continuing a dialogue.. these systems are not as transparent and not corruption free as you make them out to be. Also a large,large mass of ppl who have not clue about stock market but whose lives are colonised by financialisation. What about the ethics of this? And can market govern everything? There is a case study you should engage with - private higher education sector in India especially in Tamil Nadu and othet southern states. HE privatisation distorts the field. Would love your reaponse to my questions.. in the spirit of critique and continued dialogue
Hi Ajay and Amit. I am a big fan and have listened to every episode. Thanks. My observations/ questions are: 1) Don’t you think that a lot of promoters with only 51% of ownership or even less, move the moneys around or out of the business, which is unethical , in which case they ought to be caught by the agencies, and 2) if they give personal guarantees then too they ought to be paying for the loans. Unless you are referring to an entirely different aspect of the shareholding pattern/ maturity. Please elaborate.
Yes, stealing money from a business is wrong and requires enforcement. E.g. in IBC there is a provision for the IP to kick off a look back into suspicious activities by managers in the last x years. THAT is the problem which requires enforcement.
The term `wilful default' is a confused one and should be removed from the discourse. It is associated with thinking: The promoter is rich enough to personally pay the debts of the company, should she not?
People make a company because they want limited liability. Generally in India, lenders force personal guarantees as a way to go back 1000 years. This is wrong. (At a legal level, yes, once there is a personal guarantee it should be enforced).
No one has appreciated Amit's book title for history of the world- from pepper to Peppa pig. I will immediately buy such book, it seems to contain the knowledge of everything.
❤
I also love private equity and microfinance.
Can we have one dedicated to the delinking of currency and Gold... US Dollar... Why, How and it's implications?
Another one only on money, currency, purchasing power parity, why and how dollar became the dollar..
That's a great episode! Now suggest us top 5 stocks to buy 😅
This episode reminded me of reading Raghuram Rajan's book Fault Lines during my undergrad days and that book was my first window into how the world of banks and finance works. But that book was about the current state of the financial world. This brief talk by Ajay about the history of the financial sector gave a good perspective. @27:30 Ajay talks of how the introduction of the share market was such a game changer and how the share market introduced the concept of liquid assets was very interesting. Any book or essay recommendations that dig into this phase of our financial history?
See the economic history of finance paper that's in the show notes.
Ajay you spoke about how speculation is good and can lead to double thank you moment. What about the 2008 financial crisis that in part arose due to speculative purchase of real estate and led to the housing bubble? Would love to hear your thoughts on that.
There is market failure on finance. Please see the `Case studies' in www.mayin.org/ajayshah/books/isotr.html where there is a chapter on finance. We need the state to solve these market failures. But the state will always fumble and fail because it's difficult to make the state work correctly. And, even with a perfect state, there will be episodes of crisis, because the world does not fit tidy boxes.
To add to that, state overreach was a significant factor in the 2008 crisis. See this great paper by Larry White: www.cato-unbound.org/2008/12/02/lawrence-h-white/what-really-happened/
The 2008 crisis came first in the housing sector. This sector has significant government intervention, even in the U.S. The government was guaranteeing home loans, effectively subsidising them. This was done through a PSU commonly known as Fannie Mae. This government distortion may have caused the crisis in the first place.
Slightly off-topic comment. Off late Raghuram Rajan has been arguing that India should pursue growth led by the services sector. Rajan has said this in various op-eds and has now written a book called "Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future" that advocates for the same. I feel this might be mistaken. Arvind Panagriya, in his book - India Unlimited, makes an excellent point that there is no reason why we should pick and choose between manufacturing and services. As Panagriya says India can have robust growth if we walk on two legs, meaning we pursue economic growth with both the manufacturing and services sectors. What does Ajay think about this? If Ajay was in charge of our economy for the next 10 years, what would he do? What sort of reforms will he prioritize?
See www.mayin.org/ajayshah/books/isotr.html
🤯
Ajay please do a Algo Trading 101
A podcast on Poker please!!!
South America and cape of Good Hope ? Don’t get that at 11.29
Sorry that was obscure.
One of the great stories of the world is how the Portugese cracked the sea route to India. Remember, they had only sail boats, so the wind patterns were essential. A major constraint was carrying enough fresh water for a long voyage.
They chipped away, step by step, problem solving. They figured a lonely rock that is actually close to South America, which was a source of fresh water. And then they launched from there and found the way to the cape of good hope. And then they went up the cost of East Africa and reached Madagascar, where they found a Malayali.
The great book on this is : books.google.co.in/books/about/The_Career_and_Legend_of_Vasco_Da_Gama.html?id=8wqMWl6sSwwC&redir_esc=y
Wow! Now that deserves a proper treatment, not just a passing mention
Ajay we would like to hear your views on global warming and capitalism.
Yes, at some point we will do episodes on this. In the meantime, may I point you to the climate change chapter in Kelkar & Shah 2022 (the paperback) and to the work of XKDR Forum in this field (xkdr.org/field/climate-change).
@@ajayshah5705 thank you Sir
Have you done an episode on Caste in India in Seen and Unseen?
Talked about it a lot across episodes. This is a key episode to listen to: th-cam.com/video/fBtXLvDN10A/w-d-xo.htmlsi=iE_BVDcKpeRnnM5I
@@amitvarma Thank you! Now, I can remember you talking about this episode in other episodes, particularly the quote about diabetes. 🙂
Wait… what is the most important thing in the world
Sex
Starts with s finish with x
My comment got removed twice:(
YT sometimes auto-removes comments and we don't even see it or get a notification. Were there any trigger words in it?
Nah. There were a few book names and their connection to the episode. Tbh, I don't really know YT's definition of trigger words. So, may be. Let me recheck@@amitvarma
dp lgalo
hindi mei baat kro, even if you are not used to. coz your target audience is very small and they do not want to consume such content coz they have fck load money and people to take care.
Why hindi? Why not Gujrati or Bengali
The lingua franca is English. The biggest network effect in play is the world of English.
people also listen based on ethnicity@@ajayshah5705
its the biggest linguistic audience segment in india. but nothing wrong with gujarati or bengali.@@narasimhankhadri
I agree that this would be *far* more useful in other languages, but English is the only one both Ajay and I know well, alas.
Here is something that always puzzles me, why can't we launch derivatives for the farm produce that farmers can trade in, in small lot sizes?
Yes, it can be done.
But realistically, a lot of farmers (even in advanced economies) don't directly use the commodity futures. It is a specialised skill.
The single great thing that commodity futures can and do provide is the price forecasting service. The commodity futures price is used by farmers, all over the world, to make decisions on sowing. May like to see th-cam.com/video/qg2alGXPebE/w-d-xo.html
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