HUGE $225,000 Pot vs Tom Dwan - HIGH STAKES POKER TAKES with Daniel Negreanu 03
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.ค. 2024
- We're back with another hand breakdown from the newest season of High Stakes Poker airing exclusively on PokerGO. This season we battle against Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan, Patrick Antonius, and Doyle Brunson. In this hand against Tom Dwan we discuss pot odds, ranges, and going with the math in cash games.
0:00 Introduction
0:58 Preflop
4:20 4 Bet Analysis
6:10 Breaking Down Dwan's Range
12:15 Conclusion
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Snap call against Dwan... Snap fold against Hellmuth.
Hellmuth could have Q4o.
@@Goatboy451 HAHA! Not in this spot in a cash game
@@dnegspoker Dear Daniel. I try my luck. Maybe you read this. I would love to work for you. I need a job....
@@gernotg8480 What job do you want?? You want to be his dealer on every table or smth??
@@speedfastman i am serious
Nice breakdown of the hand man. The way you calculated all the odds that fast is wild.
Well, he is one of the best in the world
Love D’negs but that’s like saying to a surgeon, the way you cut that heart out and replaced it with another is wild. Impressive still, absolutely. Even amazing in its own right? Yes. But it’s what they do. It’s their whole life. Sooo ya know.
@@jamesquattrone can tell u never been complimented 😂 boy wrote a whole soliloquy… ya know?
@@jamesquattrone I have a math degree and that shit seems impossibly fast
also it's not like he's calculating the equity, he's just used to seeing these situations. There's not really much math involved. I mean think about it, what math is there? There are pot odds, which yes he should know to do. Every hand you should calculate pot odds. But the real "calculation" people are saying is calculating whether 88 will have positive expected value based on the opponents range and pot odds. That is where experience comes in. Professional poker players have analyzed hand ranges with solvers so many times they have a general idea of how each range fairs against each other. So yea, the only calculation he ran was the pot odds, there obviously isn't a way he could calculate equity by hand. He just knows from practice.
Is open heart surgery not wild?
DN definitely one of my favourite players, he may not win every tournament, but I just love his style of play, his calmness in the face of huge decisions, just his overall persona is very nice to watch, and the fact he is analysing and breaking down his plays really helps up and coming players. Thank you Daniel, and best of luck on the tables.
To lose his 2 kings/outs in the 1st run -- which was quite twisted, forcing Daniel to count his $$ -- was brutal
Why did he lose the 2 kings/outs in the first run? I don't understand this.
@@rjdavidr They're doing 2 runs. The first run he made trip kings (2 kings on the board) but Daniel made a full house on the river. Those 2 kings are no longer in the deck and will not be available for the 2nd run.
@@DoctorChained But how does this work? What happens if they both win 1? I've never seen this before and I don't like it.
@@mikeyforrester6887 they split the pot if they both win a run
Really like how you explained your thinking and the math behind it after he jams. I’d love to see more of that in your breakdowns.
Great videos Daniel. Thanks for doing this. I can see your game has evolved to a very high level!
long story: math and poker theory
short story: gamble
Love the breakdown of the hands!!
I need to see this full episode. Too many legends at one table
@Daniel Negreanu
Daniel, these videos are great! Really enjoying these hand breakdowns, thanks a lot for doing them. Really interesting, really instructional.
Just wondering, could you possibly do a breakdown where you perhaps lose the hand, or at least not quite get it right, and then explain what went wrong, and how you could have improved your play for the next time. Maybe? I think that might be quite interesting.
If that's even possible of course....
Again, brilliant videos, really enjoying them.
Incredible to see your hands hold up on High Stakes Poker.
Nice DNegs breakdown classroom as always. Did this influence your final hand 88 play in Event 12 against Ruan's AJ?
Loving this format
It be a dream come true to sit at the same table as Daniel. One of the most entertaining players ever.
Thank you again for the quality content Daniel! If you put the bottom of Toms range as suited wheel draws, would you have played pocket 6’s and 7’s the same way?
That was bottom of range given the jam, range is much wider when DN squeezes.
Pocket eights is 1 hand lower than the borderline hand that should have called here (99).
The reason is there is almost no difference between 66, 77, 88 here (all averaging around 41.2-41.4% equity) . 99 has a 43.1% equity. 1.5% difference edge is huge and that's why 99 is the borderline hand and not 88 hand here. because if you're calling with 88 here, then you should "theoretically" be calling with 66 and 77 as well.
You're amazing, Daniel! By the way, I love the explosion gesture u make everytime Phil H. Is about to to throw a tantrum lol
Lol 😂
Thx daniel, easy explained, i love ur style👍
Really enjoyed your analysis
The man, the myth...the guy that takes your chips.
Did DNegs just do the Larry David:"Pretty pretty pretty good" phrase 😂 Beautiful 🤣
Must have seen him do it 50 times
i watch your videos sporadically, and I love how there is a red string through all of them.
Studying and playing for the headsup challenge has turned you into a monster. You are 100 times better than before. Easily current most terrifying player from those at the top in the early 2000s!
These are so helpful love watching them!
Salut Daniel! Unde putem vedea pe internet turneele tale din 2022? Mai ales high states poker de unde ai si pus secvente in acest clip? Pe pokergo nu vad si nici pe youtube din alte surse? De ce???
Patrick Antonius still looks the same after all these years!
This hand is a good example of something I've been turning over for a while. Objectively JJ or QQ is just barely less than AK (overall win % especially in all-ins) , BUT they are favored against opposite groups of hands. JJ is crushing a whole bunch of hands that are a coin flip against AK (pairs) while AK destroys A-something and similar K -something hands that are fine to even against JJ. Which leads me to JJ must be played as much like AK as you can manage (including the big pushes) because it introduces doubt. Here, I think you are saying JJ isn't quiet as likely because he went all-in (which is something AK can do with minimal fear). In theory, JJ is pretty much the same, but it looks worse when you run into that overpair. And of course, if he had been jamming with JJ you were in trouble.
@truely True enough, but isn't the converse also true? If you have AK, your opponent(s) are less likely to have a hand you have a real advantage over (one you dominate). You gain a little protection on the worst case, but take a hit on your best case, and you are still slightly down against a pair. JJ is touch more volatile, but the idea is to force someone calling that big bet to reckon with both. AQ could be a coin flip or a dog, same with 10 10. Making an A suited call because "there are only 3 other aces ergo he has the jacks", seems a good way to make AK pay off more often.
This is why live old school poker is king. All Daniels talk really just comes down to player dependent. I've snap called people in this spot and snap folded all dependent on the player.
this pot helped me understand the power of pairs. thanks alot
I did subscribe MasterClass bc of ur lesson.
Negs: would you consider doing some of these hand commentaries on some of your older hands when you played “Poker after dark”?
Fascinating overview! The only thing I don't quite understand is why someone with a lower pair would want to run it twice, since pretty much everything you'd expect to be up against is only going to improve with more cards turning up.
His spot isn’t that great given that he’s flipping so it helps the results end in a split pot far more often. One of those cards could turn up in the first pot and he would just lose everything. Very common to run flips twice
@@nickchesney7254 Thanks for the reply, Nick! You make an interesting point about increasing the chances of a chopped pot, but here's my perspective on it: The person who is going to most benefit from running it twice is the person who has the worst hand pre-flop, and pocket 8s is ahead of everything except a higher pair. Even if the opponent has only 1 over card, multiple run-outs is going to increase their chances of pairing it (and all the more so if they have 2 different over cards). Same with hitting a flush if they have suited cards or a straight if they have connectors or even just 2 close numbers. I just don't see a lot of cases where it's beneficial for the 8s, but I'm just a casual player and could definitely be missing something!
Thank you for your thoughts and modern understanding of poker. Even if you spin the board once, you still make a big plus call! It was great... although as you say, it was not difficult for you, in terms of mathematics!)
But he played it bad and made the narrative suit his decision, do you not see that? It’s like hellmuth coming on and talking about his brilliant Q-4 call and making trips
@@rolandtomassi3486 lol the fuck you rambling about. Those two plays are absolutely nothing alike
@@rolandtomassi3486 dude what?
Man, when that King flopped first time, I was already helping you push your stack Dwan-wards.
I think Tom raises if the opener weren't Koray. Since he appeared tight either you dominate him or he dominates you and the blinds are less likely to call multi way with a straddled raised pot. Raising from the BB screams squeeze so if Tom makes it 35k to go either you call and lose (he bets the K high flop) or he takes it down. Strange how everything had to line up perfectly to get it all in.
what does it mean to have different combos of AK like you said around 10 minutes?
4 minute explanation on what took him 4 seconds to make a decision at the table, hindsight is 20/20
Pretty, pretty good analysis
Gotta bring the Big Game back!
Wow Brunson Antonius Dwan Ivy and Negranu at one table fire!
Love seeing you beat Dwan Daniel! Woo hoo
where can i watch a full episode guys?
Maybe I'm just way off but I feel like Phil, Doyle, and Patrick know exactly what's going on (plus GK in the booth) and everyone else is scratching their heads. Brutal 1st runout for Dwan....great hand Daniel!
Time to revive The Big Game on poker go 🙏🏾
Thank you Daniel
I think the craziest thing about this video is that Bellande is still playing high stakes poker 🤣
The only thing is that you also have to squeeze with suited broadway to balance your range otherwise it's too call heavy. Hands like JTs through to AJs should be in there as 3-bet folds while 66+, AK+ can be 3-bet calls, with AQo a certain fold and AQs being the hand which is right on the border between 3-bet fold and 3-bet call. Or possibly you can build your range in a different way and have hands like KQo, ATo-AQo as 3-bet folds while those suited broadway hands along with hands like 66-TT are removed from your 3betting range entirely and become calls. I've not run this through a solver but I'm pretty sure it would at least loosely agree with constructing your 3betting range either of these ways.
My friend I have a serious question is it ok to talk in a hand in a tournament when heads up
daniel is a fricken genius!
I think Dwan has AKo here mostly, maybe some small chunk of overpairs, lets say 3 combos of JJ, if that's true then 88 is printing at 52.16%.
But if we add in all JJ then it drops down to 43.03%, slightly losing so it doesn't take much to tip the scales.
If Daniel thinks he has 15 combos of overpairs (JJ, QQ, KK 50%) then Dwan needs to be finding all AK, all AQ and some low suited Ax to make it breakeven again. Assuming all those overpairs is fine I guess, doesn´t feel very likely, but in my mind the bluffs feel even less likely so it just becomes kinda marginal.
Daniel mentioned TT/99 liking to call and see a flop in position. The same can be said about any of Dwan's potential bluffs apart from maybe AQo, suited aces are just going to want to see a flop. And Dwan probably puts a lot of weight on his postflop skill edge, especially in position, so he won't be shoving hands that play smoothly post.
OMG, so scared!! 😱😱
We love you anyway! 🤩😍😄😄
Nice job 👍
That beard is on point today dude
Question: Why did they run the cards twice, can someone clarify as I'm a little confused.
Is it +ev for Tom too - with the money already in the pot?
Actually that was tough and brave call but hey your Kid Poker and im not so that was epic call to be honest. Your analysis makes sense. Daniel did you know who is on my profile picture?
great to see mr. dnegs get redemption on HSP after multiple seasons of brutal bad luck
Absolutely awesome videos! I love all of them I think Daniel is top 3 poker players ever, but I do think it maybe time to change your wall color!! Cheers from Chicago 🤣
Holy $hit!!!!! Its Daniel Negranue
Does that code still work for poker go?
Great flip
Yes modern poker theory says that he can have Ace wheel suited hands, but modern poker theory also says that you don't make that play every time you get an ace wheel suited hand or you will end up over bluffing in these spots. If you just count the statistical occurrence Ax suited you are overweighting his range towards those hands. I'm sure Daniel understands this but his explanation makes it sound like Ax has the same weight in the calculus as JJ or QQ.
Hey awesome video Daniel
You haven’t even had a chance to watch it.
@@BrandonWestfall Point!🙃
Hey Daniel, when are going to give us hockey fans an update on your fantasy hockey league?
Man, seeing Tom Dwan after not seeing him in 10 years is a bit of a shock. Like a kid in old age makeup.
yes people age...fascinating I know.
@@lloydchristmas1086 My point is he looks both young and old at the same time, because he hasn't changed anything about his style or demeanor since he looked like a little kid.
nice to see high stakes for a looong time!
Merci Daniel top!!!!!
Somewhat new to poker but if dwan is all in and they run it twice and dwan ends up winning just ONE of the flips, he'll get to keep half of his all in stack and daniel gets the other half? Is that the correct way to navigate the chip counts? And if they run it three or four times the same math would apply?
No, if they run it twice and split the wins (each win once) then they chop the pot 50/50 and also split the other chips from blinds and such.
Hi Mr.Negreanu, can you do this hand reviews in different slangs? would be so nice :) I heard you can do a good Filipino slang and im half Filipino, half german. Love your content, gl!
I do have all kinds!
So crazy and sick simultáneously
@@dnegspoker After that video with the Jamacian slang, I’d probably just stick with Toronto Buddy… its 2022 and all…
Factor in the fact players are less likely to jam against you makes it easier to call bluffs.
To me, a lay person
Durr's range on the button on HSP=Every hand imaginable for all plays
WOW 8ball Benza is still around I’m shocked.
Daniel really didn't discuss table image as much. Dwan used to have a rep for spewing chips with all manner of foolishness, which sorta makes this a snap-call without bothering worrying about combos.
Tofu Scramble is going to be my new online poker name
At some point High stakes poker luck had to even out !
Strong players like Daniel don’t need to be lucky - only need the luck to even out. 😎🇨🇦✌️
man Burr looking old these days, and D negs looking great as ever!. :D
I need to see garret with these guys
Finally a hand on hsp, and Canada a qualify for world cup
Also, AQo here is stronger than 88. I wonder if Daniel would have made this call with AQo
Daniel spent lots of time talking breaking down Dwan's possible range, obviously to offer a broader lesson about ranges pot odds, and did an admirable job. The fact is tho that this is Tom Freaking Dwan, who's range is really MUCH wider including lots of utter garbage, and in this spot, its a snap-call- moonwalk-around-the-table-and-high-five-the-dealer spot
Respect
So modern theory is cold call to 4bet-shove suited wheel aces?
Is it 1.3 to 1 because of 30 in the pot and 100 of toms and then 100k left of daniels stack?
Bingo
I think Daniel is top 3 players of all time, but all this guessing of what Dwan could have feels like defending from making a bad play, AK is the only hand ur in good shape against. So he got lucky twice, 1st time Dwan having that hand, and 2nd wining 2/2. Cuz the outcome was positive, people actually belive he made a good call.
That's how you play poker using GTO and modern theory. Its a game of incomplete information but you use maths and intelligence to try and bridge that gap. Your comment means you have no idea how to play poker.
@truely Maybe 15 years ago
@@alexandrevaz-filion783 Wow u really think u can judge my play from a comment, go write more "I m Einstein" replys
I have a question. Why do you think Tom Dwan goes all in in this spot? As a bluff, or as a value bet? He knows that you are in a better shape and try to make you fold, or just hope that you have like AQ and did it for value?
Beard looking dope!
nice hand and btw how do you reverse aging ? haha
Teach Us your luck Negs!!! ahahahha Love You my Idol!!!!
Legend
Playing so much better since playing doug.
Bring back the big game
Dnegs! Hi 👋. Beards looking nice! Kinda look like me if you were bald. 😅 thanks for the content!
Newer poker player here. I'm wondering why sometimes they draw twice.
Daniel big fan
I can only watch poker if someone is explaining as they go. Otherwise its too confusing as the announcers don't know your process.
Daniel has had terrible luck on HSP-good to see him win both.
Phil understood everything in a second. 🎉
Dwan really not happy with your call. He saw it comming 😂
I ran the numbers in Equilab and I come out with Dwan being ahead 52% vs 48% based on the range you assigned him - Even as high as 55%. While he does have some overpairs here, he never has any under pairs here like 66s-77s, which means you are only beating a segment of his range that is shoving light, like A5s but it is not enough to offset the times you think you are crushed by JJs or QQs here. With pot odds of 43% you are marginally ahead by 2%-5%. If we remove A5s then Dwan is sitting on 60% equity, and you are -3%.
But Daniel only needs like 43% equity to call profitably.
@@johnphillips669 fair point factoring in pot odds for sure....so like a 5% edge then
@@CanadianLoveKnot It is crucial to note that I'm getting 1.3-1 on the call so based on your analysis it becomes a clear call.
@@dnegspoker Only if he has A5s in range there.
Can someone explain why Daniel won the first run? Is it because both of his whole cards made the full house? Because Dwan also had it but Daniel won
Never in the world would Dwan jam 90 thousand on a bluff with Ace wheel suited.