A Friend may have Reported “Doug Gollan” to the SEC recently after his Forbes article “Why I Have Private Aviation Provider Wheels Up As A Strong Buy” (Coincidence?) The Article came out 2 days after $UP had the largest dip in the market down 27%, To then report “A Strong buy”… now since that article the stock has been down 50% + from once $11.55 a share to today $2.91… Irresponsible and curious as to why he would report stock advice as it turns out for the first time ever. What are people hearing ?
Hi Peter, I'd invite you to let me know from the story where you think my assessment - specifically facts and analysis I presented - was wrong? Why did I write it? I thought some of the coverage was overly focused on the losses and generically the increased expenses instead of how WU was 'overspending' to secure lift, in some cases upgraded aircraft, for customers and the fact that the vision remains unchanged. WU hasn't switched strategies. Their clientele is UHNWs. This isn't like the airlines where you can strip down your product and there are no other better choices. There are many competitors in the space - it's a fragmented market - and it's still a relatively narrow base of consumers who can charter whole aircraft - 1 to 2 million would be the numbers - so I liked and like that WU was willing to impact the bottom line to maintain loyalty. Again, if you read (re-read the article) - let me know where you think I'm off. Best, Doug PS - You duplicate posted the above two additional places.
@@privatejetcardcomparisons8636 I waited a few weeks to see if the shares would recover, Only went $down, so I ask… What “coverage” are you referring to? Majority of Wheels Up PR consist of your blog or you using the famous FORBES platform to mention them, Your blog refers to the word Wheels Up 1,104 times. (web scraped) Warren Buffett’s NetsJets, established in 1964 is mentioned less then WU, in addition to other big name providers such as FlexJet. According to WU Q1 earnings call “Newest cohorts continue to spend more quickly than previous” so perhaps the members aren’t as loyal as WU is claimed to be to them, however that could be challenged by simply looking at some of Wheels Up social media comments from passengers. -Again, the point of my original comment- it seems odd after all these WU mentions AND that your article would come right after their largest dip in the market (-27%) and you choosing to use words like “Bullish” as a FORBES contributor, who never once before provided stock advise. $UP now trading as a penny stock at $2.17, down -62% since your “Strong Buy” article, as I’m sure your aware as you stated “I own 100 shares of Wheels Up Experience, Inc.” in your FORBES contribution. PS- You edited your original reply to me, why?
@@peterridley5730 Hi Peter, Not sure why I edited my original reply. Probably, when I re-read it something didn't make sense. In terms of how many times WU has been covered - they have made more than a half dozen acquisitions and they put out quite a few announcements. Other copies have different strategies. For example, WU for awhile was announcing ever lifestyle partnership. Jet Linx tends to announce them in clusters. My coverage is driven by news and trends. Anyway, from the Forbes article you reference - Please tell me what I go wrong? ... "As a side note, I am bullish on the entire market - not just Wheels Up." ... "While it is suffering from added expense during times of high demand like now, when the market swings down, which it will, it won’t be stuck with a bunch of airplanes it doesn’t need. Those same operators who are now getting premiums will be on the short end of the stick when that day comes. But then, isn’t that how business works. It ebbs and flows." ... "Investors in Wheels Up will need to be patient. For anyone who listened to its pre-IPO Investors’ Day presentation, there was a large section dedicated to the complexities of running an airline where customers set the schedules days before departure. COO Thomas Bergeson, a 35-year veteran of the Air Force, who served as Deputy Commander of U.S. Central Command and was responsible for all U.S. and coalition military operations in the Middle East, Southwest, and Central Asia countries, pointed out, “The management and execution of flight operations are filled with complexity with multiple variables to consider, such as the temperature and weather, the runway length, the weight and balance of the aircraft, pilot qualifications and currencies, aircraft maintenance schedules, to name but a few. And private aviation has one significant difference from commercial airlines: our schedules change every single day. No two days are the same.” That was before private flying surged to record levels. That was before supply chain and labor shortages bubbled to the surface. Gaining Share Wheels Up may be challenged to retain existing members if it doesn’t perform to their expectations. However, other prominent players aren’t taking in new customers. While Wheels Up has put up some gates for new joiners, so long as you put up $200,000, you can fly right away except for peak days - there are only 20. If you deposit $400,000, you can fly from day one on all dates, and there are only 10 peak days." ... "So long as Wheels Up’s high-spending members remain loyal and keep making six-figure deposits for future flights, management will have a significant amount of runway. Demand for its product, based on revenues, is a full year ahead of management’s forecast. Argus predicts the industry could end up 10% bigger than it was before the pandemic. Growth in the next 12 to 24 months may be limited by how fast Wheels Up - or other players - can unlock supply and efficiency."
@@privatejetcardcomparisons8636 Doug I do appreciate your response rather than deleting comments like most bloggers.
I do agree with the market swing down, with a possible recession on the horizon. When referring to “Those same operators who are now getting premiums, Who would those be? Your prior reply was that WU hasn't switched strategies.- Yet they used to be a membership subscription model, pay as you fly fixed hourly rates. I believe what investors want to know is, have they changed their business model because the ship is sinking much like their stock?
Is selling block time deposits a money grab, like you mentioned “significant amount of runway” Their earnings call also stated that they are selling off some of their aircraft and having members finance them back (Very large deposits)
All of these points you constantly cover in a positive way, never bringing up the obvious that investors see…
In reference to your comment: I do see you mention “I am bullish on the entire market - not just Wheels Up” However Doug, why wasn’t mentioned until 2,922 words into your contribution. Why wasn’t that your FORBES headline…
Why was it headlined “Why I have Private Aviation Provider Wheels Up As A Strong Buy”... AND WHY did you publish abruptly after the stocks largest plummet in the market (-27%)
I just don’t like seeing amateur investors get financially hurt by bold headlines at strategic moments, I’m not accusing you, as I'd like to believe it was a coincidence, however it most certainly raises some RED FLAGS!
@@peterridley5730 So Peter, A lot to unpack -- PR: When referring to “Those same operators who are now getting premiums, Who would those be? DG: Any charter operator -- especially when aircraft are being chartered at the last minute and the customer is a company selling fixed rate jet cards with guaranteed availability. The operator knows they have a needy buyer. PR: "Your prior reply was that WU hasn't switched strategies.- Yet they used to be a membership subscription model, pay as you fly fixed hourly rates. I believe what investors want to know is, have they changed their business model because the ship is sinking much like their stock?" DG: They have been selling blocks for around five years at least - pay as you go is still an option, but the rules and rates are better based on buying the blocks. There have been no changes to the model for several years - the biggest changes were just prior to the DPJ deal in 2019 when they expanded there programs - added large cabin - took light jets nationwide and added guaranteed availability as I recall. The idea was that as essentially a King Air program they could gain more share of wallet by having a more typical program with nationwide guaranteed availability across all categories. PR: Their earnings call also stated that they are selling off some of their aircraft and having members finance them back (Very large deposits) DG: They launched an Aircraft Sales Group so that's what they do. Buy airplanes - resell them to buyers who will then allow WU to manage them and put them into their floating fleet charter program. It's a way to increase inventory for members without having to own more airplanes outright. JetEdge has its AdvantEdge program, FlyExclusive has triple net leases, Jet Linx has a similar program. PR: Why was it headlined “Why I have Private Aviation Provider Wheels Up As A Strong Buy”... AND WHY did you publish abruptly after the stocks largest plummet in the market (-27%) I do see you mention “I am bullish on the entire market - not just Wheels Up” However Doug, why wasn’t mentioned until 2,922 words into your contribution. Why wasn’t that your FORBES headline… DG: Again, I think the article speaks for itself - The reason I wrote the article is I was happy to see Wheels Up not making detrimental program changes. Analysts often cheer the airlines cutting back on pillows and charging more to choose a seat. The customers of private aviation are UHNWs and companies. Many programs have implemented significant changes unilaterally to account for all of the industry's challenges - more peak days, blackouts, changing prices on 30 days notice for existing members. WU so far has taken a customer-centric view in terms of protecting the terms of existing members and making more measured changes - and only for new members or renewals. Cheers, Doug
I have been tracking WU for a couple of years now. They have certainly grown up nicely.
A sign that business is slowing down as a side effect of a struggling economy.
A Friend may have Reported “Doug Gollan” to the SEC recently after his Forbes article “Why I Have Private Aviation Provider Wheels Up As A Strong Buy”
(Coincidence?) The Article came out 2 days after $UP had the largest dip in the market down 27%, To then report “A Strong buy”… now since that article the stock has been down 50% + from once $11.55 a share to today $2.91… Irresponsible and curious as to why he would report stock advice as it turns out for the first time ever. What are people hearing ?
Hi Peter, I'd invite you to let me know from the story where you think my assessment - specifically facts and analysis I presented - was wrong?
Why did I write it?
I thought some of the coverage was overly focused on the losses and generically the increased expenses instead of how WU was 'overspending' to secure lift, in some cases upgraded aircraft, for customers and the fact that the vision remains unchanged. WU hasn't switched strategies.
Their clientele is UHNWs. This isn't like the airlines where you can strip down your product and there are no other better choices.
There are many competitors in the space - it's a fragmented market - and it's still a relatively narrow base of consumers who can charter whole aircraft - 1 to 2 million would be the numbers - so I liked and like that WU was willing to impact the bottom line to maintain loyalty.
Again, if you read (re-read the article) - let me know where you think I'm off.
Best, Doug
PS - You duplicate posted the above two additional places.
@@privatejetcardcomparisons8636
I waited a few weeks to see if the shares would recover, Only went $down, so I ask…
What “coverage” are you referring to? Majority of Wheels Up PR consist of your blog or you using the famous FORBES platform to mention them, Your blog refers to the word Wheels Up 1,104 times. (web scraped) Warren Buffett’s NetsJets, established in 1964 is mentioned less then WU, in addition to other big name providers such as FlexJet.
According to WU Q1 earnings call “Newest cohorts continue to spend more quickly than previous” so perhaps the members aren’t as loyal as WU is claimed to be to them, however that could be challenged by simply looking at some of Wheels Up social media comments from passengers.
-Again, the point of my original comment- it seems odd after all these WU mentions AND that your article would come right after their largest dip in the market (-27%) and you choosing to use words like “Bullish” as a FORBES contributor, who never once before provided stock advise.
$UP now trading as a penny stock at $2.17, down -62% since your “Strong Buy” article, as I’m sure your aware as you stated “I own 100 shares of Wheels Up Experience, Inc.” in your FORBES contribution.
PS- You edited your original reply to me, why?
@@peterridley5730 Hi Peter, Not sure why I edited my original reply. Probably, when I re-read it something didn't make sense.
In terms of how many times WU has been covered - they have made more than a half dozen acquisitions and they put out quite a few announcements. Other copies have different strategies. For example, WU for awhile was announcing ever lifestyle partnership. Jet Linx tends to announce them in clusters. My coverage is driven by news and trends.
Anyway, from the Forbes article you reference - Please tell me what I go wrong?
...
"As a side note, I am bullish on the entire market - not just Wheels Up."
...
"While it is suffering from added expense during times of high demand like now, when the market swings down, which it will, it won’t be stuck with a bunch of airplanes it doesn’t need. Those same operators who are now getting premiums will be on the short end of the stick when that day comes. But then, isn’t that how business works. It ebbs and flows."
...
"Investors in Wheels Up will need to be patient.
For anyone who listened to its pre-IPO Investors’ Day presentation, there was a large section dedicated to the complexities of running an airline where customers set the schedules days before departure.
COO Thomas Bergeson, a 35-year veteran of the Air Force, who served as Deputy Commander of U.S. Central Command and was responsible for all U.S. and coalition military operations in the Middle East, Southwest, and Central Asia countries, pointed out, “The management and execution of flight operations are filled with complexity with multiple variables to consider, such as the temperature and weather, the runway length, the weight and balance of the aircraft, pilot qualifications and currencies, aircraft maintenance schedules, to name but a few. And private aviation has one significant difference from commercial airlines: our schedules change every single day. No two days are the same.”
That was before private flying surged to record levels. That was before supply chain and labor shortages bubbled to the surface.
Gaining Share
Wheels Up may be challenged to retain existing members if it doesn’t perform to their expectations. However, other prominent players aren’t taking in new customers.
While Wheels Up has put up some gates for new joiners, so long as you put up $200,000, you can fly right away except for peak days - there are only 20. If you deposit $400,000, you can fly from day one on all dates, and there are only 10 peak days."
...
"So long as Wheels Up’s high-spending members remain loyal and keep making six-figure deposits for future flights, management will have a significant amount of runway.
Demand for its product, based on revenues, is a full year ahead of management’s forecast.
Argus predicts the industry could end up 10% bigger than it was before the pandemic.
Growth in the next 12 to 24 months may be limited by how fast Wheels Up - or other players - can unlock supply and efficiency."
@@privatejetcardcomparisons8636 Doug I do appreciate your response rather than deleting comments like most bloggers.
I do agree with the market swing down, with a possible recession on the horizon.
When referring to “Those same operators who are now getting premiums, Who would those be?
Your prior reply was that WU hasn't switched strategies.- Yet they used to be a membership subscription model, pay as you fly fixed hourly rates. I believe what investors want to know is, have they changed their business model because the ship is sinking much like their stock?
Is selling block time deposits a money grab, like you mentioned “significant amount of runway” Their earnings call also stated that they are selling off some of their aircraft and having members finance them back (Very large deposits)
All of these points you constantly cover in a positive way, never bringing up the obvious that investors see…
In reference to your comment:
I do see you mention “I am bullish on the entire market - not just Wheels Up”
However Doug, why wasn’t mentioned until 2,922 words into your contribution. Why wasn’t that your FORBES headline…
Why was it headlined “Why I have Private Aviation Provider Wheels Up As A Strong Buy”... AND WHY did you publish abruptly after the stocks largest plummet in the market (-27%)
I just don’t like seeing amateur investors get financially hurt by bold headlines at strategic moments, I’m not accusing you, as I'd like to believe it was a coincidence, however it most certainly raises some RED FLAGS!
@@peterridley5730 So Peter, A lot to unpack --
PR: When referring to “Those same operators who are now getting premiums, Who would those be?
DG: Any charter operator -- especially when aircraft are being chartered at the last minute and the customer is a company selling fixed rate jet cards with guaranteed availability. The operator knows they have a needy buyer.
PR: "Your prior reply was that WU hasn't switched strategies.- Yet they used to be a membership subscription model, pay as you fly fixed hourly rates. I believe what investors want to know is, have they changed their business model because the ship is sinking much like their stock?"
DG: They have been selling blocks for around five years at least - pay as you go is still an option, but the rules and rates are better based on buying the blocks. There have been no changes to the model for several years - the biggest changes were just prior to the DPJ deal in 2019 when they expanded there programs - added large cabin - took light jets nationwide and added guaranteed availability as I recall. The idea was that as essentially a King Air program they could gain more share of wallet by having a more typical program with nationwide guaranteed availability across all categories.
PR: Their earnings call also stated that they are selling off some of their aircraft and having members finance them back (Very large deposits)
DG: They launched an Aircraft Sales Group so that's what they do. Buy airplanes - resell them to buyers who will then allow WU to manage them and put them into their floating fleet charter program. It's a way to increase inventory for members without having to own more airplanes outright. JetEdge has its AdvantEdge program, FlyExclusive has triple net leases, Jet Linx has a similar program.
PR: Why was it headlined “Why I have Private Aviation Provider Wheels Up As A Strong Buy”... AND WHY did you publish abruptly after the stocks largest plummet in the market (-27%)
I do see you mention “I am bullish on the entire market - not just Wheels Up”
However Doug, why wasn’t mentioned until 2,922 words into your contribution. Why wasn’t that your FORBES headline…
DG: Again, I think the article speaks for itself - The reason I wrote the article is I was happy to see Wheels Up not making detrimental program changes. Analysts often cheer the airlines cutting back on pillows and charging more to choose a seat. The customers of private aviation are UHNWs and companies. Many programs have implemented significant changes unilaterally to account for all of the industry's challenges - more peak days, blackouts, changing prices on 30 days notice for existing members. WU so far has taken a customer-centric view in terms of protecting the terms of existing members and making more measured changes - and only for new members or renewals.
Cheers, Doug