I don't know what this woman's smoking but there are not a bunch of buyers out there. Buyers are people who can BUY. Very few people can afford home prices today, thus, they are NOT buyers!
nah, depends on the market and price point scooter. Low price point trash house in bumfuck kansas, not a lot of buyers. mid high to high range in a metro area, plenty of buyers. paying cash.
Her channel is all about house buying or selling so of course she wanted more transactions! When interest rates are so high and homeowners are still in lalaland thinking their homes are still at their peak price like 4 yrs ago! The few cash payers are very selective and by now already bought their overpriced homes.
She's clueless. Ever lived through a Florida crash in 2008? Was able to buy my house for 169,000. Selling now 7 years later for 350,000. Yes there will be a crash of 50 to 80 percent. I've lived through a crash. Most realtors haven't. People thought Peter Schiff was crazy in 2006. 2007/8 hardcore crash. I agreed with him. Things have only begun. Enjoy the show everyone.
I wouldn't mind if the market housing crashed some. Prices are so out of control for home buyers. I'd love to see a moratorium on corporate and foreign investors hoarding properties.
Any young person who voted for Biden (I am neither) should be outraged that the party that supposedly is for the "little guy" did absolutely NOTHING to stem the great investor incursion into residential real estate, nor all the foreign camping of capital (much of it from Chinese who are scared their own market is imploding...because it is).
Yes! This! It should be against the law! They are causing housing crises. A town in Mo. we like to visit had some tourism, now it looks to me as if it has been bought out and the homes all turned into B & B's Some already were. It just seemed strange to me. I wonder if the locals who were older, have passed, and the younger people have gone elsewhere? Or the younger people who are left cannot afford to buy the homes and they sold out or what has really happened. I truly felt a little uncomfortable about it.
He's referring to the Drastic Loss in Terms of Gold: If we imagine a scenario where the value of gold increases significantly due to economic instability or hyperinflation, and home prices (in fiat) do not rise at the same pace, your home could lose 80-90% of its value when measured in gold. For example, if a home was worth 100 ounces of gold at one point, and due to economic shifts, it later is worth only 10-20 ounces, you've experienced an 80-90% loss in value in terms of gold, even if the home's price in dollars has remained the same or increased.
@@mahoser64 Can it be insured? The insurance companies arnt insuring anymore in hurricane zones, flood zones, fire zones, tornado zones, border states, high crime areas, or anywhere the wind blows.
I just want to send you a huge hug and a thank you. I watched a number of your videos when I decided to sell my 1974 924 square foot condo in Westlake Village, CA. My real estate agent, who I found through you, was surprised at the preparations I had made. He said it looked professionally staged. It sold in 10 days. I bought it for $219,000 in 2011 and sold it for $590,000. Thank you so much for teaching me what I needed to know. I’ve now bought a 2018 2022 square foot home in Arizona that is so much nicer which cost $30,000 less than the people paid for my condo. I feel like I now live in a resort. During the week my furniture was delivered, my daughter and granddaughter visited and loved it. My granddaughter spent hours in my pool each day. You have made my dreams come true. Thank you so much!
I think the "80-90% drop in value" means an 80-90% drop in *equity.* That's why Peter Schiff mumbles "on a cash basis" after stating the click bait line. If someone buys a $300k house and currently has $60,000 (20%) in equity, the value of the house needs to fall only 18% ($54k) for the equity to be reduced to $6k. A drop in equity from $60k to $6k is a 90% drop in equity. Said another way, if someone has 20% equity in the home, a home value decline of 16%-18% would result in an equity decline of 80%-90%.
I was just going to reiterate what you posted. Well said! Market conditions Nationwide are dropping-just at different speeds Interest rates imo are just now coming back to “norms” based off economic data, in fact they should be higher. My first home had an interest rate of 18% in ‘83. The house cost $40k. It sold last year at over $400k. Craziness!!
No, he just means in terms of Gold...because he sells gold lol. But he's technically correct as the dollar will ALWAYS lose value against gold, so yes, someday, every home will in fact lose 80-90%, in real terms, but it won't really matter if it happens slowly and incomes inflate commensurately.
Peter Schiff's 80-90% loss is "in terms of real money" and investment property (1:43). I watched that episode 2 weeks ago. what he is talking about is the equity you have investment property will dwindle in the next 10-20 years due to ever growing inflation assessment property taxes and insurance requirement, coupled with lower property demand. where income/revenue is not growing fast enough to cover the run away cost. and when you sell, you either sell at a real loss due to lowered demand (already happening in San Fran and NYC. or like AT&T Center in St. Louis was sold in 2024 for 3 million, an 98% reduction from its former $205 mil sold price in 2006). or sell at the inflated price and got taxed on the gain, but after property tax, maintenance cost, you actually lost money in the investment. compare to holding gold or a diversified investment portfolio
I remember in Florida when everyone was saying it's not going to get cheaper. The crash hit 3 months later and so many people ended up losing everything.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
In Boca Raton, there was a house that I was looking at that sold for 140k about seven years ago. They were asking 1.4 million in the spring and 1.2 by the start of summer. I could see it dropping back to 2019 prices. The cost of home insurance it through the roof. Taxes are up and Florida living isn’t what it used to be so I can imagine a fall from peak asking prices. I feel bad for anyone who over spent in the last few years.
We had our house for 5 years but the kids were getting older and we wanted to move to a different area. It's not for everyone but we decided that we'd sell the house and rent in the area we want to move. It'll give us more time to decide if we definitely want to buy in the area. We are borderline minimalist so moving is a pain but it's not a mountain of a job. The pods company really is a game changer because you can have them for a month and move your stuff in when you have the time... Just don't move to an HOA where they complain about it. Lol
25 years working Psychology, psychiatric and behaviour as a DSW. Do, not move children over the age of 4 due to the unstable emotions of children. Think of a child as nitro and moving that chemical can be explosive.Moving in the same neighborhood is fine but moving a 12 year old can cause bullying, children attaching to the lowest group of losers and drug addicts or criminal minds.I have seen moves destroy many children.Move after the children are 18.
I’m all for optimism but this video will not age well..We heard the same sentiment from real estate agents/brokers right before the 2008 real estate crisis and homes are more over valued (above the mean average) now than they were then,not to mention our looming debt crisis.We just had 56,000 contracts cancelled in july (height of the buying season) which is the most in july in our history.I also remain optimistic but a typical mean reversion of 25-35% in areas that experienced growth is most likely in the cards.Regarding Peter Schiff and his prediction it does seem outlandish i agree but lets not forget he and Michael burry were the only two who correctly called the 2008 housing crash and everyone called them crazy back then as well for what its worth🤷🏻♂️
Only reason the crash hasn't happened is because we've printed about 60% of the $USD in circulation in the last 15 years!!!- making the bubble and next crash exponentially bigger. It's just a question of 'when'.
What he says is true and real money is gold and silver. This happened in 2011 after the 2008 crash gold and silver rose by 300% or more and housing bottomed out by about 50% or more in some markets.
Thank you! I live in a little town by the beach, inventory is always tight. The town next door is a little less desirable and I am seeing double the single family inventory from last year in summer
las vegas has only 3500 houses on the inventory.... I want to buy a couple of houses. but no way i will buy them on top of the cycle, Low inventory doesnt help.
People will have to accept reality that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. I now look towards the stock market to fuel my millionaire goal. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
I like both. But in my experience, most of the millionaires that I know have gained their wealth through diversified investments and they all had a sort of advisor helping out with informed decisions.
Agreed, advisors are ideal reps for investing jobs, and straight up! that's how I’ve stayed afloat for 5 years now, accruing over $1m in return on investment, after 100s of thousands invested. IMO, home prices will need to fall at least 40% before the market normalizes.
@@Marquis-9 real estate prices exploded, interest rates exploded, but my wage the same, i'm screwed !! who is your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? in dire need of portfolio restructuring
She goes by ‘’Ellen Geskin Kettle’’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you for such a sane and unbiased approach. I follow you and Audra Lambert, and both of you are always very pragmatic and don’t just do Clickbait videos, but give good information. I’m trying to sell my house in Texas and yes, things are much slower here now and we are seeing houses cut their prices, but I don’t believe there is going to be a market crash. We are just hanging on in there and one day we will find our buyer. Sooner than later, I hope. Fingers crossed.
Yeah - you just hold out for that price. A Realtor would never lie to you. I'm sure you'll get that absurdly high price you want - just not in this century.
There's this one TH-camr who has been predicting crashes for years. I just get the feeling that he wants certain markets to fail so that he can swoop in and buy up good properties at opportune times. I could be wrong, but that's just the feeling that I get.
@@johnlabus7359 I believe that’s Sachs Reality, but the guy is a Broker and has real estate agents working for him, so I’m not sure why he’d want the market to crash. I really wasn’t trying to be a jerk either. I’m not an expert by any stretch, but I read and listen to housing market experts, loan officers, economists, and investors like George Gammon, Jeff Snider, Stephanie Pomboy, Danielle Demartino, Art Lafferty, Real Estate Mindset, and Melody Wright and there is a lot going on in our economy and Globally that’s going to impact assets (stocks, houses, commercial real estate, pension funds, etc.). Thing is, it takes a long time for assets to start going down because our government does everything they can to keep assets high when they consistently inject liquidity into the market. We probably would have already seen a turn had it not been for Government involvement. That’s the wild card, signs have been trending for the last two years that something bad was coming, and we inch closer to that catastrophic event happening. For housing, I highly recommend listening to Melody Wright. She is very analytical and digs into the data, as well as provides a detailed explanation of that data.
In many if not most cities in America, prices peaked in May/June 2022 (type in FRED MSPUS in Google if you don't believe me), so those people who have been "incorrectly calling for a crash for years" will actually end up being correct since mid 2022 if the crash continues and or accelerates for the next couple of years (which both math and history say will happen).
The 90% number is probably exaggerated for shock value but I think what a lot of Realtors are missing cuz believe me they did the last time as well. The decline does not take place in a 12-month period or in a "buying season" the decline takes place over 3 to 5 years. That's 3 to 5 years of declining prices. So although it may not reach 90%, the end percentage reduction will depend on how much panic or job loss accelerates the fall which will depend on when the economy starts putting people back to work sufficiently compensated to buy. Not rocket science. Just repeating what happened the last time
Here's the thing. It was said to scare people. I mean if we have to jump through hoops to understand it and I am in the industry, the average american has zero idea.
If you sell your house for $1 billion and 1oz of gold is $1 billion, then your house crashed over 90%. That's what Shiff meant. It happened in 1920s Germany. He said real money, not dead dollars.
I like Peter Schiff ,and he is brilliant , however one must take into consideration, he sells gold & Silver etc.When he's talking about value and real money ,its based on that.
the houses cost it way more in 2005 than they cost today i did the math when i purchased my first house at $155k at that time that was in gold weight value 387oz do the math how much is in today market the value of 387oz of gold $968,750 so he’s perfectly correct
Thanks for your outline. I love your information as it’s quite objective in places However… Some things to note: * These predictions are coming from highly regarded persons in Warren Buffet AND Harry Dent AND Danielle DiMartino- Booth etc ( Not Cowboys) * Statistics and Analyses support the above persons * Inflation IS HURTING most families * Home affordability HAS NEVER been as extreme compared to wages V purchasing power Lots more to include but that’ll do for now As I said above, I love your outline BUT let’s view ALL OF THIS realistically Thanks 😊
Historically, current interest rates aren't the problem. Prices are. There needs to be a housing market correction. Every housing market is different, but home prices need to adjust roughly 25% down for most average middle-class income wage earners to buy a first home. Unfortunately, anyone who bought a house recently will likely be upside-down in their home. This will prevent them from refinancing and likely selling without taking a loss. Anyone who barrowed against the enhanced value of their home will also likely be upside-down and in the same predicament. I really hope interest rates dont suddenly drop, or we will be right back where we started.
I've seen $50K - $100K reduction in prices in a new development I've followed all summer. I just saw one home listed at $20K less than what they purchased the home for in June 2023. That's a forced selling situation, and I do feel sorry for that person. Unfortunately, their home is higher than brand new homes (same floorplan) in the development. I'm seeing significant drops and am looking forward to more. The interest rate is not the motivating factor for me. I'm glad my realtor doesn't try to sell me on that. We'd have to break up!!!😥
Unless you are in an area with an extreme seller's market with the insurance companies pulling out, I would not worry too much. Even areas within a weak city can still show strength all based on supply and demand. If you are in certain parts of the NE, this is all pointless noise.
I am confused. Am I hearing things, or do you actually criticize click bates “market crash” videos in the video titled “Time to PANIC!” (yes, “shouting” that last word) and then go on for 10 minutes explaining why this is not the case? (I won’t spend another 10 minutes of my life listening to the general realtor’s sell pitch).
THANK YOU! I was just getting ready to comment regarding her clickbait title. She is equally guilty. It is concerning and stressful enough for many Americans without realtors like her adding to it all for the sake of more viewership on their videos. There are so many other ways she could’ve titled this video for viewership which I definitely would have watched and “liked”. I wouldn’t choose a realtor who does this, it is a blemish on the reputation of all realtors. While she has gotten viewership and a comment from me which benefits her, I also just got a question from TH-cam asking if I find this video helpful.
The truth is more nuanced. Depends on the local market, but yes there is softening overall like what she said. The title was more click bait then the content.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like *Marisa Breton Dollard* who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thank you for this tip , I must say Marisa, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
Canadian home prices have gone up more than 100% since 2015 , that's only 9 years. Any asset that can surge this much in so little time can also crash easily 50-60%.
Depending on your location, the market can be either robust or crashing. Places like Fl and Tx where values jumped 50%-100% in value in just 5 years, there is a real and logical risk of a crash (remember you are defining crash as 20% or more) places like the northeast, where values have risen slow and steady (more in line with historical trends) there is less to little risk of a crash. We all have to take into account unemployement, the reduction of work from home opportunities, and the high levels of debt Americans have taken on. A slight reduction in interest rates is not going to solve high home prices. Taxes have risen, insurance has risen, only lower home prices are going to get people back into buying homes.
The Northeast blew up as a direct result of it becoming too unappealing to keep paying top dollar just to live/invest in the South/Gulf/smile states. Those places are nice, but not nice enough to pay near California prices for. So all of a sudden those $160K homes up north became attractive and got bid up badly. But I think that as soon as the builders bring balance back to those Southern regions, the Northeast/Midwest should come back down to earth as well.
The Nick Girly, "the buyers are on strike" line is false. The following people are still buying homes. 1. People who can afford higher taxes. 2. People who can afford higher insurance. 3. People who can afford higher home prices. People can't expect property taxes and insurance not to go up: businesses face inflation just like the homeowners do.
@@dan-qe1tb Yes, insurance, taxes, home values always go up over time. So do salaries. But there is this little thing about real estate and its the Value to Income ratio. As salaries rise, so do home values, which in turn raise insurance and taxes. The problem becomes when home values rise up to high in a short time, but salaries do not rise at the same rate. Throws off the Value to income ratio, MORE buyers cannot afford to buy the homes. In many places in FL, home prices have doubled and many even more than double IN JUST THE LAST 5 YEARS. The incomes in FL have not doubled in that same time. There are only so any retirees/wealthy that will move to FL with wealth already. People who live and work in the state need to be able to afford the prices, so local income definitely plays a part in establishing what home prices will be. This is why FL has the highest level of inventory in the country right now.
The problem is not the mortgage rates but the price which means higher taxes and higher insurance. In fact rates should stay as they are or move higher if inflation continues . That would bring all other expenses down.
Rate is not that important as the price of the house and the total cost of owning. It’s just too high - median earner cannot afford median priced house.
Any advice on a loved one who bought a house with 8 acres of land that is not good for raising plants and the home isn't in that good of shape? Its in Missouri and the house was prettied up for sale, but floors are warped, deck ynfinished and warping, there's give in part of floor and bathroom plumbing is not good. We have helped him a few times but we are older and need to take care of ourselves. We think he should sell and possibly short sell at that. They think they're homesteading, but no action we can see. My son only makes 70,000 a year and bought the house for 268,000. He barely has $ for upkeep, car repairs (we paid last time!), food and clothing. He bought the house from Portland, Ore viewed only pictures and he was allowed to finance it without an inspection. He ignored our advice to start with. I'm afraid they'll lose the house and think we'll take them in. Our house is small, only 2 bedrooms.
I thought he said a loss of 80% PRICE of homes. I didn’t hear him say an 80% loss of VALUE of homes. It kind of sounded like you lumped the two together.
In the current economic climate, a home is not the best investment. I've already sold my Boca Grande area home, but I want to invest roughly $200,000 in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?
The truth is that if you make the right picks, you could make killer riches very quickly, although such profit usually needs expertise, as in hedge funds or financial managers. I personally prefer the latter.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advlsor, I currently have $985k in a well-diversified portfollo that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in st0cks, but you also need to be knowledgeable.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Annette Christine Conteis her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since l need all the assistance l can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Yeah, it sucks. I've been on the market for over 50 days now and had only one offer massively under listing and demanding unreasonable "structural" inspections. Not a dud of a house, either. God, I just want my damn money back.
As far as "dating the rate" and refinancing, even if a house appraises okay, the value will affect whether or not one will need mortgage insurance on the new loan, and if so, what it will cost. TOTAL loan under 80% = usually no mortgage insurance. The cost goes higher as the ratio of loan amount to home value gets higher. If credit scores have fallen, that can push mortgage insurance costs a lot higher and can even negate any savings from a lower interest rate. On the positive side, if you had to have mortgage insurance when you bought and now your value is higher and/or your credit scores have improved, you could enjoy both lower interest costs and lower cost (or no) mortgage insurance. If it hasn't been too long (less than 2 years), you could possibly get a refund of part of the mortgage insurance premium from the original loan. The rules are a little different on refinances vs purchases so check with a lender before making any decisions!
Kati, yes, we are those people who need to downsize not only the home size but also the property size, on 20 acres now. But we haven't decided where to go! I'm dreading the entire process, honestly.
Same boat but can’t afford the housing at the prices they’re at. Glad to see interest rates starting to come down some. Don’t want to live in a trailer park!
We were in the same boat and after retiring at 58 and 59, we tried and tried to find a small home, ranch maybe, 2 bed 2bath that we actually could get excited about moving to. It was so disappointing. Needed to sell our 3600+ sq ft family home with large yard, deck, etc. so we could travel more. We even checked condos but the ones we saw were awful, no charm, high HOA and felt frustrated for years looking. So this year, at 62, we both decided to sell in early Spring and we were able to sell in a day. It was amazing. For these past 4-6 yrs we have been selling things, donating and giving to our three kids for their new homes. So we have reduced our belongings by 85%, made a bunch of cash selling stuff and living minimally now in an apt with full amenities. It is wonderful! We don’t regret getting rid of one item we owned. And we are relieved to have sold the house when we did, so we can enjoy our family, travel and entertain friends with the pool and amenities here. Our plan is 15 months here and then reeval. Rent deals are great in winter, so you can sign on and go for it. This is not forever, but it is for now! And it is fun. We’ve never doubted our decision. And we keep letting go of more stuff!
I’m watching and heard you say the one thing that is going to crush buyers…and it’s the same thing other self- serving agents and companies like Zillow, Redfin, and Barbra Corcoran say in their articles…”we need interest rates to come down.” You are focusing on interest rates ONLY as the primary driver of consumers. Are you kidding me??? Housing prices need to come down! Median Housing costs 7 to 8 times median household income. This is higher than any other point in history, including the 80s when interest rates were much higher than they are now. I’m not trying to be mean, but you really need to assess the economy, the Japan Carry trade (that’s not even close to unraveling), the fraud in the housing market with property tax (this is making homes unaffordable as well), insurance rates going up 200% or more (especially in FL), the jobs market and increased layoffs…the list goes on. This is a terrible time to buy a house. I watch this and I can’t help but caution anyone who is listening to you about about buying a house anytime soon. I understand what you’re saying because as a real estate agent you need to sell houses so you can’t scare people away, that’s self destructive, but this cheerleading will put end up hurting buyers by stretching them to their financial limits to purchase an over priced house. I do agree, houses are not dropping 80%-90%, and real estate markets are local…hyper local. However, there will easily be 20%-30% corrections in certain areas of the untied states, especially where there has been mass building the last four years. The northeast looks to be about the most shielded from a big drop in prices, but down south and our west…that’s where you will see most of the corrections. It will be worse when we go into a recession.
I agree prices are too high because of everything you’re saying. I don’t disagree with anything other I am just trying to push people to buy. In fact I tell people now is not the time to buy if you can. However many in my audience are older and have had their homes for many years and they are being scared into selling right this minute because they believe they are going to lose a lot of money. If you were a viewer of mine ongoing you’d see that I am one of the most honest agents out there who tell it how it is and state the truth. I see buyers every single day who are struggling to buy. I hear you.
I’m so tired of people always trying to scare me, thanks for a realistic view. I always look at the real estate market like the stock market, it is long-term investment. Plus, I’ve got to live somewhere and I couldn’t possibly rent for what I’m paying for my house.
Great video, well-thought out points of reason vs panic. And I agree on supply and demand, impact of remote work, affordability factors, etc. Thanks for bringing up the facts vs the hype.
Excellent video! Alot of good points made. I sometimes watch the click-bait stuff and usually end up stopping after a few minutes - because you can tell it's all hype - and am tempted to call them out on it in the comments. I waited 36 years to make a small profit on my home in NJ. I thought I missed out because I didn't list in '22. When I was finally ready, I got more than it was ever worth during the time I owned it, but not 100s of thousands - just 10s of thousands. I sold it a few months ago and now I check out Zillow in the area and the (listing) prices are continuing to rise. I am still very happy with what I got because never in 36 years did I think it was possible. I hope these people get what they are asking - it's been a long time coming. They are perfect for the young folks that are whining that nothing is affordable. These are nice, well-built homes in a pretty nice area, but they've been stagnant for decades - no where near what similar homes in nearby neighborhoods have gotten for decades. When this happens, people start fixing their homes up - making upgrades - it's nice to see. You feel like you're throwing your money in the trash when you want to make your place look nice but the values don't warrant it.
This information is invaluable. We must start to pivot as the average consumer is become much more financial savvy about the downside do not paying attention to the Total Interest Percentage and instead listening to the numbers being quoted. There is more to shopping for a mortgage than just asking about APR and monthly payment.
Every single person I know in my personal life across different regions says prices are too high. It’s a game of chicken many of these people have just decided they are going to wait. It depends on how the scales tip as to what happens.
Kati, you are correct that going thru a move & paying the same to have a smaller or even worse home is not worth it! IF the standard deduction for capital gains (250/500K) is bumped up, we might see more people "downsizing". I do not want to pay so much in taxes and it is short sighted of the government not to realize their part in housing availability bc of taxes. they actually LOSE because in my area we have prop 13.
It's the larger homes that are more at risk. Smaller homes with lower interest rates spells young buyers. Retirees are also a strong segment of buyers for smaller homes, as they are looking for less to take care of. And in Missouri, retirees can get property taxes 100% reimbursed to them!
He said it right there "in terms of actual money" meaning people who have positive equity in their homes 80-90% of that is going away e.g. round about way of saying home prices are going to drop back to pre-bubble prices.
Right. But then he should have explained that for the average seller. Not someone in finance. My viewers have had their homes for 20-30 years. They will be fine.
I want to believe there is gonna be some downward pressure on home prices but the reality is my wife listed and sold a basic house for a fair price in one day last week. Full price offer. Cash. I watch the market close and things around me sell super fast as long as it’s not overpriced. The really expensive houses are sitting tho.
Hit the nail on the head - there's tons of buyers... buuuttt affordability and wages/debt ratio are way off. If we can make a correction for incomes, the house market will look amazing again. Just need a little help + hope
With what’s going on overseas in the Middle East and here in the US ( Job layoffs, rampant inflation ) too many people feel insecure and are not willing to go broke so as to own overpriced homes , when we do not know what will happen in the next 12 months . Prices will crash for sure . Rates are irrelevant , We have to look at the overall price of the home , not the monthly payments based on interest rates, Sellers are too greedy and stubborn, Realtors want to make up for lower commissions by encouraging the sellers to keep prices high .otherwise they loose on commissions. Over 50% of realtors have only been able to sell 1-2 homes per the entire year!
Perfect timing for this information! I was thinking about selling my house in Texas. I have been thinking about this for a long time, and move to Florida where my daughter and her family live. Very helpful. Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
My first thought is that the gentleman stating the value of home are or will drop 80-90% is trying to manipulate people emotionally so his company and/or others he represents can benefit. How? By taking advantage of people.
Did you notice the guy saying that was from "Sachs Reality". Hmmm... Sounds like he is trying to scare people into listing their houses and selling whether they want to or not so he can make a buck or 10 off of them. It is crazy!
no he’s got nothing to gain from that news he’s giving to us he’s not a real estate agent nor broker he’s a multi billionaire money manager he predicted 2006-7 real estate crash and he’s absolutely correct this time as well you on the other hand can gain a lot from this news if you’re prepared to get in the game after SHTF
If homes values are inflated by 40 to 60% then he is correct ✅. What ppl fail to realize is 😅😮is some home values rose by almost double in such a short time that’s not a sustainable market for the long run
He means in terms of Gold...because he sells gold lol. But he's technically correct as the dollar will ALWAYS lose value against gold, so yes, someday, every home will in fact lose 80-90%, in real terms, but it won't really matter if it happens slowly and incomes inflate commensurately.
Learn my lesson in 07-08 , it's all a game, and you ain't going to win . The game is not structurally sound. A 30 year mortgage,sold on Wall Street is a game you can't win.
Luckily I am in California, our prop 13 caps the amount that property taxes can go up which is very low. Our insurance has gone up very little because we are not in a fire zone. Unfortunately, home prices are very high for new buyers. We bought our home when prices were much more reasonable. Our house has tripled in value. Unless we are moving to a new state which is not very likely because our daughters live close by I think we will stay put, it doesn’t make much sense to move.
As a pillow Realtor, I had a friend recommend your channel. I absolutely love how you describe things, especially some of the new situations we now find ourselves in. I subscribed to you because you help me figure out how to explain some of these things to my buyers, I hope that is OK. You are providing a great service. Thank you.
I have seen 60 to 100k lost on a 650k homes. It is bad not sure where you are. As we know people will always sell and buy I am in Texas and it started over a year ago
If there was an economic collapse - Wiemar republic inflation - your assessed value may skyrocket before it collapsed. You may be on the hook for a ridiculous property tax depending on timing of events and lack of legislation.
They're saying that because the fundamentals that caused that crash were never fixed, which means it will happen again. The housing crash will happen after unemployment explodes. Keep your eye on the unemployment numbers.
@@LG-tw5vm No one went to jail, so it's really foolish in my view for people to believe that Wall Street found Jesus and "got their act together". In fact, we KNOW the opposite happened, they invented shadow banking to get around the weak Dodd-Frank regulations. Derivatives, CLO's, tranches, all that toxic stuff is still there. The only question is, will the government act proactively this time around to keep the dam from bursting? (pre-emptive bankster bailouts with our grandchildren's money?)
As a homeowner, I would be thrilled if housing prices crashed. That would allow my daughter and her husband, and millions of others like them, to afford homes. Anyone older person who owns a home and wants to downsize would find it incredibly easy to do so, as the smaller houses would have shrunk in price as well. If you don't want to buy, then the capital gains tax the government imposes will wipe out a huge portion of your sales price anyway. Lower prices are a win for most people. also, it would help A LOT if we'd stop allowing the sale of homes to foreign investors who want them just for investment purposes and keep them vacant. Over 10% of residential units are currently vacant; that is insane. Foreigners should either be required to keep their properties occupied, or be prohibited from owning them all together.
I am currently getting a client set to sell his home and while searching for a home for him to purchase after selling his home, I came across our listing with 0% commission. I called the agent to inquire and he told me with the offer I can put an agenda asking for any amount that I am wanting from the seller, however, it is up to the seller to agree or not and that is why with the new compensation forms and agency form that you sign with your client you put a percentage there that will now be the responsibility of the buying agents client. So, of course, the seller will say no they will not compensate you and it will fall on your client . But since the offer is now in ,your client has no way to get out of the situation and to me, it is a catch and kill for the seller. After explaining the new compensation law, my client asked me to not show them a home where the seller has 0% commission. It will be a problem for the sellers soon enough.
19:30 Todd Sachs is experienced. He’s realistic, too.. imo. Yes, his video titles are a bit clickbait-ish, but I watch his show Live on Tuesdays and usually enjoy them. His recent guest WAS over the top & if you read the comments, many people spoke from their experience of following that guest ( let me find his name ) and says he’s frequently wrong. The other clip you showed had Todd Sachs and Peter Schiff. Schiff predicted the 2008 crash, so I’d say he knows a thing or two. With all that said, I appreciate your content and perspective.
Todd has real estate agents on from around the country. He has guests on that travel to various markets ( boots on the ground , eyes on the cities). In addition, he has people call in. Buys, sellers AND agents from around the country call in to ask questions or to share information about their markets
"80-90% decline in real estate prices in terms of *actual money* " He's talking about housing priced in gold. Dollar is not money, it's a fiat currency, backed by nothing. Peter is a precious metals investor, so he looks at the economy through that lens. In the same interview he speaks about real estate prices in dollar values potentially going even higher, but paired with overall inflation across the board (i.e. purchasing power of the dollar going down... even more). Dollar has lost over 99% of its purchasing power since FED's creation in 1913. It's not the prices going up, it's the value of dollar going down, and working people's income along with it.
Make sure you check out the recent bldg sale in Portland OR that took a 87% cut from 2019 sale price of 255m, ya 87% of that! 33m to a local family real estate company.
Its an inflation crash. Home prices have not gone up as much as the inflation. An average home 5 years ago costs 25% or more in inflation adjusted dollars. So people can't afford to buy anymore along with the raised interest rates, taxes, labor/materials for maintenance.
Regarding home values falling, as you know, there is a bubble, and homes are valued hundreds of percent over what they were a few years ago. There is a bubble and everyone is being told they are worth so much! People were scooped into "Financial Allowances" to get them into a home because "Everyone has a right to a home", whether they can afford it or not. Professional building space has emptied over 50 percent and is not coming back. The restructuring of these debts will render the owner's bankrupt because there is no one renting these spaces and no way to pay for them at the new interest rates coming. The green new deal requirements will push homeowners to spend tens of thousands if not a $100,000 to be under compliance for the new "green" regulations. Homeowners will be surrendering their homes because they can't make these new changes. Foreclosures will be rampant If Elon Musk is right, there will be a 100 million people without jobs because of robotics and artificial intelligence. How can people to stay in their homes when they're overvalued and joblessness is the word of the day.
15:40 excellent advice on (not) re-financing, however, that is an admission that buyers should wait for the price to drop "...$100,000 to $200,000" so they aren't stuck. I'd rather rent for an extra year than know that I paid a FOMO premium Overall good video, but you are underestimating how much the market will crash when it happens. And yes, each market is different. Phoenix metro is rising in value while some markets are dropping.
Foreclosures are picking up and sellers are offering concessions. Commercial real estate is not doing well. She thinks there may be another surge in home prices this year... sheesh.
Peter Schiff believes in gold and other precious metals will skyrocket because of on coming hyperinflation (look at exponential government debt and spending). No way out of this one. Home prices will also go up nominally, but on inflation adjusted basis, it will crash. That's what Peter is saying.
Economists like Peter Schiff and Harry Dent don’t expect an immediate 80-90% drop in home prices but do predict significant reductions in the next year due to rising layoffs and shifts to AI. With fewer high-paying jobs, the volume of buyers with purchasing power will decrease, leaving homes on the market longer. Currently, 90% of millennials regret their home purchase, which creates further hesitation among younger families worried about maintenance fees and rising insurance costs. Additionally, many mortgage holders are losing their jobs, and around 70% of the workforce is bracing for impact. Real estate agent Ashley Pickens, who auctions off foreclosed homes, recently reported on HUD data that indicates about 3 million Americans (1 million homeowners and 2 million renters) believe they will lose their homes by September 2024. These issues could lead to a significant price drop, especially as the mass layoffs continue. Who would take on a 30-year mortgage if they're concerned about imminent unemployment?
If you can get the lending and qualify your a buyer. Liquidity is limited at the Bank level so they control the buyers unless you are a cash buyer. Price of homes may get higher (Fed Reserve keeps printing money to pay for $35 Trillion Debt but wages are not keeping up with inflation /inflation) and when they lower rate and maybe a short time deflationary window where prices go down and the Fed Reserve will print like crazy to buy all the debt and cause hyperinflation 18-24 months later. IMO, then a reset? Who the hell knows, the Fed Reserve(Not a Government Agency but a private Corp. They run the Government in certain ways.) which never gets it right.
I was in a presentation with Peter Schiff and the audience there was quite vocal against him. Many of them lost millions of dollars with Peters advice to invest in euro stocks. So he's always Stated gold going to 5,000, now 10k plus and the dollar is going to crash. People need to look at his history and make their own decisions.
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The prices need to come down, not the interest rates.
Correct, but Realtors know what side their bread is buttered on. Low rates makes prices go up, and that inflates the commission check.
Rate does not matter
exactly Too much greed.
@@Taj-Mahal I would say both to help more to afford single retirement income. I can’t afford $400000+ house.
@@SarahS1214 I can afford, "a", $650k house. You might be able to make more money, if you worked on your English?
I don't know what this woman's smoking but there are not a bunch of buyers out there. Buyers are people who can BUY. Very few people can afford home prices today, thus, they are NOT buyers!
nah, depends on the market and price point scooter. Low price point trash house in bumfuck kansas, not a lot of buyers. mid high to high range in a metro area, plenty of buyers. paying cash.
Her channel is all about house buying or selling so of course she wanted more transactions! When interest rates are so high and homeowners are still in lalaland thinking their homes are still at their peak price like 4 yrs ago! The few cash payers are very selective and by now already bought their overpriced homes.
Companies like Blackrock want you to sell so they buy.
I been wating to buy since 2021
There are a bunch of buyers out there in my zip code. Lots of people can afford home prices today. Few of my peers don't make six figures.
She's clueless. Ever lived through a Florida crash in 2008? Was able to buy my house for 169,000. Selling now 7 years later for 350,000. Yes there will be a crash of 50 to 80 percent. I've lived through a crash. Most realtors haven't. People thought Peter Schiff was crazy in 2006. 2007/8 hardcore crash. I agreed with him. Things have only begun. Enjoy the show everyone.
I wouldn't mind if the market housing crashed some. Prices are so out of control for home buyers. I'd love to see a moratorium on corporate and foreign investors hoarding properties.
Any young person who voted for Biden (I am neither) should be outraged that the party that supposedly is for the "little guy" did absolutely NOTHING to stem the great investor incursion into residential real estate, nor all the foreign camping of capital (much of it from Chinese who are scared their own market is imploding...because it is).
Yes! This! It should be against the law! They are causing housing crises.
A town in Mo. we like to visit had some tourism, now it looks to me as if it has been bought out and the homes all turned into B & B's Some already were. It just seemed strange to me.
I wonder if the locals who were older, have passed, and the younger people have gone elsewhere? Or the younger people who are left cannot afford to buy the homes and they sold out or what has really happened. I truly felt a little uncomfortable about it.
He's referring to the Drastic Loss in Terms of Gold: If we imagine a scenario where the value of gold increases significantly due to economic instability or hyperinflation, and home prices (in fiat) do not rise at the same pace, your home could lose 80-90% of its value when measured in gold. For example, if a home was worth 100 ounces of gold at one point, and due to economic shifts, it later is worth only 10-20 ounces, you've experienced an 80-90% loss in value in terms of gold, even if the home's price in dollars has remained the same or increased.
In 2010 I bought my CONDO in FLORIDA $204,000 in a short- sell for $35,000 CASH so that is 83% DROP IN PRICE!!! PRAISE GOD!!!
I'd sell it and get out of there.
Hoa?
Is your condo one of the ones being hit with a ton of fees so it can get up to code?
@@mahoser64 Wow!
@@mahoser64 Can it be insured? The insurance companies arnt insuring anymore in hurricane zones, flood zones, fire zones, tornado zones, border states, high crime areas, or anywhere the wind blows.
When Peter Schiff said home prices would crash 80 - 90% "against real money", which is gold. In other words, RE will crash 80%+ against gold.
Was looking for this. This concept will, and has been, going over so many heads. Including hers apparently.
He said housing prices down 90% in real money. That's Gold and Silver.
exactly.
most people have no concept of real value and real purchasing power,
which is why government can trick people with inflation the hidden tax
I just want to send you a huge hug and a thank you. I watched a number of your videos when I decided to sell my 1974 924 square foot condo in Westlake Village, CA. My real estate agent, who I found through you, was surprised at the preparations I had made. He said it looked professionally staged. It sold in 10 days. I bought it for $219,000 in 2011 and sold it for $590,000. Thank you so much for teaching me what I needed to know. I’ve now bought a 2018 2022 square foot home in Arizona that is so much nicer which cost $30,000 less than the people paid for my condo. I feel like I now live in a resort. During the week my furniture was delivered, my daughter and granddaughter visited and loved it. My granddaughter spent hours in my pool each day. You have made my dreams come true. Thank you so much!
Oh I’m so happy for you!!! And I’m so glad that I helped!! Keep in touch!
Don't forget HOA nightmares. They can increase at anytime and they will foreclose on you if you miss payments. Find HOA free property if you can.
Sold mine a few years ago. Those are terrible places to live.
I think the "80-90% drop in value" means an 80-90% drop in *equity.* That's why Peter Schiff mumbles "on a cash basis" after stating the click bait line. If someone buys a $300k house and currently has $60,000 (20%) in equity, the value of the house needs to fall only 18% ($54k) for the equity to be reduced to $6k. A drop in equity from $60k to $6k is a 90% drop in equity. Said another way, if someone has 20% equity in the home, a home value decline of 16%-18% would result in an equity decline of 80%-90%.
Ah!! Thank you!! That makes total sense now! You are the only person that has been able to state what he meant. I mean… really.
I was just going to reiterate what you posted. Well said! Market conditions Nationwide are dropping-just at different speeds Interest rates imo are just now coming back to “norms” based off economic data, in fact they should be higher. My first home had an interest rate of 18% in ‘83. The house cost $40k. It sold last year at over $400k. Craziness!!
Smart guy talking here. Surprised, the knowledgeable lady of this video was clueless.
No, he just means in terms of Gold...because he sells gold lol. But he's technically correct as the dollar will ALWAYS lose value against gold, so yes, someday, every home will in fact lose 80-90%, in real terms, but it won't really matter if it happens slowly and incomes inflate commensurately.
Peter Schiff's 80-90% loss is "in terms of real money" and investment property (1:43). I watched that episode 2 weeks ago. what he is talking about is the equity you have investment property will dwindle in the next 10-20 years due to ever growing inflation assessment property taxes and insurance requirement, coupled with lower property demand. where income/revenue is not growing fast enough to cover the run away cost. and when you sell, you either sell at a real loss due to lowered demand (already happening in San Fran and NYC. or like AT&T Center in St. Louis was sold in 2024 for 3 million, an 98% reduction from its former $205 mil sold price in 2006). or sell at the inflated price and got taxed on the gain, but after property tax, maintenance cost, you actually lost money in the investment. compare to holding gold or a diversified investment portfolio
I remember in Florida when everyone was saying it's not going to get cheaper. The crash hit 3 months later and so many people ended up losing everything.
Because so many people overpaid for homes even while loan rates were low, I believe there will be a housing catastrophe because these people are in debt. If housing costs continue to drop and, for whatever reason, they can no longer afford the property and it goes into foreclosure, they have no equity since, even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I believe that many individuals will experience this, especially given the impending mass layoffs and rapidly rising living expenses.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
My portfolio has been in the gutter for the entire year, so I started researching new ways to profit in the market, but everything I tried just seemed to miss the mark. Please let us know the name of your financial advisor?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
In Boca Raton, there was a house that I was looking at that sold for 140k about seven years ago. They were asking 1.4 million in the spring and 1.2 by the start of summer. I could see it dropping back to 2019 prices. The cost of home insurance it through the roof. Taxes are up and Florida living isn’t what it used to be so I can imagine a fall from peak asking prices. I feel bad for anyone who over spent in the last few years.
We had our house for 5 years but the kids were getting older and we wanted to move to a different area. It's not for everyone but we decided that we'd sell the house and rent in the area we want to move. It'll give us more time to decide if we definitely want to buy in the area. We are borderline minimalist so moving is a pain but it's not a mountain of a job.
The pods company really is a game changer because you can have them for a month and move your stuff in when you have the time... Just don't move to an HOA where they complain about it. Lol
25 years working Psychology, psychiatric and behaviour as a DSW. Do, not move children over the age of 4 due to the unstable emotions of children. Think of a child as nitro and moving that chemical can be explosive.Moving in the same neighborhood is fine but moving a 12 year old can cause bullying, children attaching to the lowest group of losers and drug addicts or criminal minds.I have seen moves destroy many children.Move after the children are 18.
@@JoshuaTrinityWolf-dc4up well that's good to know. We are a military family so moving is kinda unavoidable.
We are doing the same thing! Renting for a year and let the dust settle from all the moving pieces.
I’m all for optimism but this video will not age well..We heard the same sentiment from real estate agents/brokers right before the 2008 real estate crisis and homes are more over valued (above the mean average) now than they were then,not to mention our looming debt crisis.We just had 56,000 contracts cancelled in july (height of the buying season) which is the most in july in our history.I also remain optimistic but a typical mean reversion of 25-35% in areas that experienced growth is most likely in the cards.Regarding Peter Schiff and his prediction it does seem outlandish i agree but lets not forget he and Michael burry were the only two who correctly called the 2008 housing crash and everyone called them crazy back then as well for what its worth🤷🏻♂️
Only reason the crash hasn't happened is because we've printed about 60% of the $USD in circulation in the last 15 years!!!- making the bubble and next crash exponentially bigger. It's just a question of 'when'.
Peter Shiff is talking about purchasing power because of food, energy etc.. costing more.
What he says is true and real money is gold and silver.
This happened in 2011 after the 2008 crash gold and silver rose by 300% or more and housing bottomed out by about 50% or more in some markets.
Lack of inventory? Inventory is skyrocketing and many are backing out of offers. Inflation, interest rates, and house insurance are not worth it.
Not in my state. Real estate is local.
@@congraciaysalud oh OK, so institution's like Black Rock in your area buying up homes?
Thank you!
I live in a little town by the beach, inventory is always tight. The town next door is a little less desirable and I am seeing double the single family inventory from last year in summer
Only 2 mobile homes and a cabin for sale in my Western Washington city.
las vegas has only 3500 houses on the inventory.... I want to buy a couple of houses. but no way i will buy them on top of the cycle, Low inventory doesnt help.
The prices of homes in the NYC suburbs have been coming down for the past 4 or 5 months. We're seeing up to 10% drops in house prices from a year ago.
Thank you for sharing is! It's always great to hear insights from different areas
People will have to accept reality that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. I now look towards the stock market to fuel my millionaire goal. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
U.S. stocks have historically been the best investment. Much safer than real estate. Treat it like real estate, don't panic sell and impulse buy.
I like both. But in my experience, most of the millionaires that I know have gained their wealth through diversified investments and they all had a sort of advisor helping out with informed decisions.
Agreed, advisors are ideal reps for investing jobs, and straight up! that's how I’ve stayed afloat for 5 years now, accruing over $1m in return on investment, after 100s of thousands invested. IMO, home prices will need to fall at least 40% before the market normalizes.
@@Marquis-9 real estate prices exploded, interest rates exploded, but my wage the same, i'm screwed !! who is your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? in dire need of portfolio restructuring
She goes by ‘’Ellen Geskin Kettle’’ I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you for such a sane and unbiased approach. I follow you and Audra Lambert, and both of you are always very pragmatic and don’t just do Clickbait videos, but give good information. I’m trying to sell my house in Texas and yes, things are much slower here now and we are seeing houses cut their prices, but I don’t believe there is going to be a market crash. We are just hanging on in there and one day we will find our buyer. Sooner than later, I hope. Fingers crossed.
Yeah - you just hold out for that price. A Realtor would never lie to you. I'm sure you'll get that absurdly high price you want - just not in this century.
There's this one TH-camr who has been predicting crashes for years. I just get the feeling that he wants certain markets to fail so that he can swoop in and buy up good properties at opportune times. I could be wrong, but that's just the feeling that I get.
I understand it’s his job and they have to make money too, but it feels gross that people are out there profiting from other peoples fear and anxiety.
@@johnlabus7359 I believe that’s Sachs Reality, but the guy is a Broker and has real estate agents working for him, so I’m not sure why he’d want the market to crash. I really wasn’t trying to be a jerk either. I’m not an expert by any stretch, but I read and listen to housing market experts, loan officers, economists, and investors like George Gammon, Jeff Snider, Stephanie Pomboy, Danielle Demartino, Art Lafferty, Real Estate Mindset, and Melody Wright and there is a lot going on in our economy and Globally that’s going to impact assets (stocks, houses, commercial real estate, pension funds, etc.). Thing is, it takes a long time for assets to start going down because our government does everything they can to keep assets high when they consistently inject liquidity into the market. We probably would have already seen a turn had it not been for Government involvement. That’s the wild card, signs have been trending for the last two years that something bad was coming, and we inch closer to that catastrophic event happening. For housing,
I highly recommend listening to Melody Wright. She is very analytical and digs into the data, as well as provides a detailed explanation of that data.
In many if not most cities in America, prices peaked in May/June 2022 (type in FRED MSPUS in Google if you don't believe me), so those people who have been "incorrectly calling for a crash for years" will actually end up being correct since mid 2022 if the crash continues and or accelerates for the next couple of years (which both math and history say will happen).
Good chance a TH-camr has no money to "swoop in". They are just actors trying to get views. Nothing more. Nothing less. Just like this broad.
You talking about the economic ninja
Home buying season in Naples Florida is October thru March.
If you look at commercial real estate, some buildings have already sold for 80-90% off. That will translate to retail in about a year.
Yes, commercial and office space are in a mess.
The 90% number is probably exaggerated for shock value but I think what a lot of Realtors are missing cuz believe me they did the last time as well. The decline does not take place in a 12-month period or in a "buying season" the decline takes place over 3 to 5 years. That's 3 to 5 years of declining prices. So although it may not reach 90%, the end percentage reduction will depend on how much panic or job loss accelerates the fall which will depend on when the economy starts putting people back to work sufficiently compensated to buy. Not rocket science. Just repeating what happened the last time
Here's the thing. It was said to scare people. I mean if we have to jump through hoops to understand it and I am in the industry, the average american has zero idea.
If you sell your house for $1 billion and 1oz of gold is $1 billion, then your house crashed over 90%. That's what Shiff meant. It happened in 1920s Germany.
He said real money, not dead dollars.
He means in terms of gold. If you notice, gold is climbing in value, at all time highs. The dollar is declining in value.
I like Peter Schiff ,and he is brilliant , however one must take into consideration, he sells gold & Silver etc.When he's talking about value and real money ,its based on that.
the houses cost it way more in 2005 than they cost today i did the math when i purchased my first house at $155k at that time that was in gold weight value 387oz do the math how much is in today market the value of 387oz of gold $968,750 so he’s perfectly correct
Thanks for your outline. I love your information as it’s quite objective in places
However…
Some things to note:
* These predictions are coming from highly regarded persons in Warren Buffet AND Harry Dent AND Danielle DiMartino- Booth etc ( Not Cowboys)
* Statistics and Analyses support the above persons
* Inflation IS HURTING most families
* Home affordability HAS NEVER been as extreme compared to wages V purchasing power
Lots more to include but that’ll do for now
As I said above, I love your outline BUT let’s view ALL OF THIS realistically
Thanks 😊
Historically, current interest rates aren't the problem. Prices are. There needs to be a housing market correction. Every housing market is different, but home prices need to adjust roughly 25% down for most average middle-class income wage earners to buy a first home. Unfortunately, anyone who bought a house recently will likely be upside-down in their home. This will prevent them from refinancing and likely selling without taking a loss. Anyone who barrowed against the enhanced value of their home will also likely be upside-down and in the same predicament. I really hope interest rates dont suddenly drop, or we will be right back where we started.
Very good points!
I've seen $50K - $100K reduction in prices in a new development I've followed all summer. I just saw one home listed at $20K less than what they purchased the home for in June 2023. That's a forced selling situation, and I do feel sorry for that person. Unfortunately, their home is higher than brand new homes (same floorplan) in the development. I'm seeing significant drops and am looking forward to more. The interest rate is not the motivating factor for me. I'm glad my realtor doesn't try to sell me on that. We'd have to break up!!!😥
If you can work from home somebody living in India can do your job.
Unless you are in an area with an extreme seller's market with the insurance companies pulling out, I would not worry too much. Even areas within a weak city can still show strength all based on supply and demand. If you are in certain parts of the NE, this is all pointless noise.
Not buying until prices drop by 50% where I live or I will move to where housing is cheap.
I am confused. Am I hearing things, or do you actually criticize click bates “market crash” videos in the video titled “Time to PANIC!” (yes, “shouting” that last word) and then go on for 10 minutes explaining why this is not the case? (I won’t spend another 10 minutes of my life listening to the general realtor’s sell pitch).
😂😂
THANK YOU! I was just getting ready to comment regarding her clickbait title. She is equally guilty. It is concerning and stressful enough for many Americans without realtors like her adding to it all for the sake of more viewership on their videos. There are so many other ways she could’ve titled this video for viewership which I definitely would have watched and “liked”. I wouldn’t choose a realtor who does this, it is a blemish on the reputation of all realtors. While she has gotten viewership and a comment from me which benefits her, I also just got a question from TH-cam asking if I find this video helpful.
She was actually all over the map, but I'll give her this...she did try to convince stubborn sellers to stop dreaming about getting 2022 prices...
The truth is more nuanced. Depends on the local market, but yes there is softening overall like what she said. The title was more click bait then the content.
I’m closing in on my retirement and I’d like to move from Minnesota to a warmer climate, but the prices on homes are stupidly ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%) do I just invest my spare cash into stock and wait for a housing crash or should I go ahead to buy a home anyways?
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850K.
@@joshbarney114 I appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress. Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Finding financial advisors like *Marisa Breton Dollard* who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thank you for this tip , I must say Marisa, appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her webpage, I thoroughly went through her resume, and I must say, it was quite impressive. I reached out to her, and I have booked a session with her.
8:35 Great video. Looking at facts rather than saying misinformation to stir emotions.
Canadian home prices have gone up more than 100% since 2015 , that's only 9 years. Any asset that can surge this much in so little time can also crash easily 50-60%.
Depending on your location, the market can be either robust or crashing. Places like Fl and Tx where values jumped 50%-100% in value in just 5 years, there is a real and logical risk of a crash (remember you are defining crash as 20% or more) places like the northeast, where values have risen slow and steady (more in line with historical trends) there is less to little risk of a crash. We all have to take into account unemployement, the reduction of work from home opportunities, and the high levels of debt Americans have taken on. A slight reduction in interest rates is not going to solve high home prices. Taxes have risen, insurance has risen, only lower home prices are going to get people back into buying homes.
Well said.
The Northeast blew up as a direct result of it becoming too unappealing to keep paying top dollar just to live/invest in the South/Gulf/smile states. Those places are nice, but not nice enough to pay near California prices for. So all of a sudden those $160K homes up north became attractive and got bid up badly. But I think that as soon as the builders bring balance back to those Southern regions, the Northeast/Midwest should come back down to earth as well.
The Nick Girly, "the buyers are on strike" line is false. The following people are still buying homes. 1. People who can afford higher taxes. 2. People who can afford higher insurance. 3. People who can afford higher home prices. People can't expect property taxes and insurance not to go up: businesses face inflation just like the homeowners do.
@@dan-qe1tb Yes, insurance, taxes, home values always go up over time. So do salaries. But there is this little thing about real estate and its the Value to Income ratio. As salaries rise, so do home values, which in turn raise insurance and taxes. The problem becomes when home values rise up to high in a short time, but salaries do not rise at the same rate. Throws off the Value to income ratio, MORE buyers cannot afford to buy the homes. In many places in FL, home prices have doubled and many even more than double IN JUST THE LAST 5 YEARS. The incomes in FL have not doubled in that same time. There are only so any retirees/wealthy that will move to FL with wealth already. People who live and work in the state need to be able to afford the prices, so local income definitely plays a part in establishing what home prices will be. This is why FL has the highest level of inventory in the country right now.
If you are an agent, you are lying if you say that you don't notice a major change in the housing market.
If the US mortgage rate is 6-7%, those are not sky high rates. Those are more normal rates than we've seen in the last decade or so.
I remember when the Mortgage interest rates were 11% to 13% in the late 1970's.
The problem is not the mortgage rates but the price which means higher taxes and higher insurance. In fact rates should stay as they are or move higher if inflation continues . That would bring all other expenses down.
@@jeandurand3092absolutely agree the prices need to come down the rates are normal but affordability is not on par with salaries
Rate is not that important as the price of the house and the total cost of owning. It’s just too high - median earner cannot afford median priced house.
Yeah but income to home ratio was much more favorable in the 70s. It has 5x since then.
Any advice on a loved one who bought a house with 8 acres of land that is not good for raising plants and the home isn't in that good of shape? Its in Missouri and the house was prettied up for sale, but floors are warped, deck ynfinished and warping, there's give in part of floor and bathroom plumbing is not good. We have helped him a few times but we are older and need to take care of ourselves. We think he should sell and possibly short sell at that. They think they're homesteading, but no action we can see. My son only makes 70,000 a year and bought the house for 268,000. He barely has $ for upkeep, car repairs (we paid last time!), food and clothing. He bought the house from Portland, Ore viewed only pictures and he was allowed to finance it without an inspection. He ignored our advice to start with. I'm afraid they'll lose the house and think we'll take them in. Our house is small, only 2 bedrooms.
87% drop in Portland Oregon on a commercial bldg.
Already seeing 12-15 homes for sale in my neighborhood here in Florida. Home on the street over went from 350k to 295k to get sold
I thought he said a loss of 80% PRICE of homes. I didn’t hear him say an 80% loss of VALUE of homes. It kind of sounded like you lumped the two together.
In the current economic climate, a home is not the best investment. I've already sold my Boca Grande area home, but I want to invest roughly $200,000 in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?
The truth is that if you make the right picks, you could make killer riches very quickly, although such profit usually needs expertise, as in hedge funds or financial managers. I personally prefer the latter.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advlsor, I currently have $985k in a well-diversified portfollo that has experienced exponential growth. It's not only about having money to invest in st0cks, but you also need to be knowledgeable.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Annette Christine Conteis her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since l need all the assistance l can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Yeah, it sucks. I've been on the market for over 50 days now and had only one offer massively under listing and demanding unreasonable "structural" inspections. Not a dud of a house, either. God, I just want my damn money back.
I hear you and empathize
As far as "dating the rate" and refinancing, even if a house appraises okay, the value will affect whether or not one will need mortgage insurance on the new loan, and if so, what it will cost. TOTAL loan under 80% = usually no mortgage insurance. The cost goes higher as the ratio of loan amount to home value gets higher. If credit scores have fallen, that can push mortgage insurance costs a lot higher and can even negate any savings from a lower interest rate. On the positive side, if you had to have mortgage insurance when you bought and now your value is higher and/or your credit scores have improved, you could enjoy both lower interest costs and lower cost (or no) mortgage insurance. If it hasn't been too long (less than 2 years), you could possibly get a refund of part of the mortgage insurance premium from the original loan. The rules are a little different on refinances vs purchases so check with a lender before making any decisions!
The same people who believe that there is NO crash coming believed there was NO crash coming in 2007-2008. There IS a crash coming.
Kati, yes, we are those people who need to downsize not only the home size but also the property size, on 20 acres now. But we haven't decided where to go! I'm dreading the entire process, honestly.
We're in the same boat as y'all... it's so hard to figure out what to do 😢
Same boat but can’t afford the housing at the prices they’re at. Glad to see interest rates starting to come down some. Don’t want to live in a trailer park!
@@SarahS1214hey I live in a trailer park
We were in the same boat and after retiring at 58 and 59, we tried and tried to find a small home, ranch maybe, 2 bed 2bath that we actually could get excited about moving to. It was so disappointing. Needed to sell our 3600+ sq ft family home with large yard, deck, etc. so we could travel more. We even checked condos but the ones we saw were awful, no charm, high HOA and felt frustrated for years looking. So this year, at 62, we both decided to sell in early Spring and we were able to sell in a day. It was amazing. For these past 4-6 yrs we have been selling things, donating and giving to our three kids for their new homes. So we have reduced our belongings by 85%, made a bunch of cash selling stuff and living minimally now in an apt with full amenities. It is wonderful! We don’t regret getting rid of one item we owned. And we are relieved to have sold the house when we did, so we can enjoy our family, travel and entertain friends with the pool and amenities here. Our plan is 15 months here and then reeval. Rent deals are great in winter, so you can sign on and go for it. This is not forever, but it is for now! And it is fun. We’ve never doubted our decision. And we keep letting go of more stuff!
I’m watching and heard you say the one thing that is going to crush buyers…and it’s the same thing other self- serving agents and companies like Zillow, Redfin, and Barbra Corcoran say in their articles…”we need interest rates to come down.” You are focusing on interest rates ONLY as the primary driver of consumers. Are you kidding me??? Housing prices need to come down! Median Housing costs 7 to 8 times median household income. This is higher than any other point in history, including the 80s when interest rates were much higher than they are now.
I’m not trying to be mean, but you really need to assess the economy, the Japan Carry trade (that’s not even close to unraveling), the fraud in the housing market with property tax (this is making homes unaffordable as well), insurance rates going up 200% or more (especially in FL), the jobs market and increased layoffs…the list goes on. This is a terrible time to buy a house. I watch this and I can’t help but caution anyone who is listening to you about about buying a house anytime soon. I understand what you’re saying because as a real estate agent you need to sell houses so you can’t scare people away, that’s self destructive, but this cheerleading will put end up hurting buyers by stretching them to their financial limits to purchase an over priced house.
I do agree, houses are not dropping 80%-90%, and real estate markets are local…hyper local. However, there will easily be 20%-30% corrections in certain areas of the untied states, especially where there has been mass building the last four years. The northeast looks to be about the most shielded from a big drop in prices, but down south and our west…that’s where you will see most of the corrections. It will be worse when we go into a recession.
I agree prices are too high because of everything you’re saying. I don’t disagree with anything other I am just trying to push people to buy. In fact I tell people now is not the time to buy if you can. However many in my audience are older and have had their homes for many years and they are being scared into selling right this minute because they believe they are going to lose a lot of money. If you were a viewer of mine ongoing you’d see that I am one of the most honest agents out there who tell it how it is and state the truth. I see buyers every single day who are struggling to buy. I hear you.
If we really needed to sell we would offer it, but if we didn’t need to sell, I would never offer buyer commissions
The Florida market tanked 2007-2008 but it came roaring back. It will again
I’m so tired of people always trying to scare me, thanks for a realistic view. I always look at the real estate market like the stock market, it is long-term investment. Plus, I’ve got to live somewhere and I couldn’t possibly rent for what I’m paying for my house.
Great video, well-thought out points of reason vs panic. And I agree on supply and demand, impact of remote work, affordability factors, etc. Thanks for bringing up the facts vs the hype.
Thanks so much! Appreciate it!
For those of us who bought houses in 2010/2011/2012 and have interest rates of 3.5% to 4% have no reason to sell.
Excellent video! Alot of good points made. I sometimes watch the click-bait stuff and usually end up stopping after a few minutes - because you can tell it's all hype - and am tempted to call them out on it in the comments. I waited 36 years to make a small profit on my home in NJ. I thought I missed out because I didn't list in '22. When I was finally ready, I got more than it was ever worth during the time I owned it, but not 100s of thousands - just 10s of thousands. I sold it a few months ago and now I check out Zillow in the area and the (listing) prices are continuing to rise. I am still very happy with what I got because never in 36 years did I think it was possible. I hope these people get what they are asking - it's been a long time coming. They are perfect for the young folks that are whining that nothing is affordable. These are nice, well-built homes in a pretty nice area, but they've been stagnant for decades - no where near what similar homes in nearby neighborhoods have gotten for decades. When this happens, people start fixing their homes up - making upgrades - it's nice to see. You feel like you're throwing your money in the trash when you want to make your place look nice but the values don't warrant it.
This information is invaluable. We must start to pivot as the average consumer is become much more financial savvy about the downside do not paying attention to the Total Interest Percentage and instead listening to the numbers being quoted. There is more to shopping for a mortgage than just asking about APR and monthly payment.
Every single person I know in my personal life across different regions says prices are too high. It’s a game of chicken many of these people have just decided they are going to wait. It depends on how the scales tip as to what happens.
Kati, you are correct that going thru a move & paying the same to have a smaller or even worse home is not worth it! IF the standard deduction for capital gains (250/500K) is bumped up, we might see more people "downsizing". I do not want to pay so much in taxes and it is short sighted of the government not to realize their part in housing availability bc of taxes. they actually LOSE because in my area we have prop 13.
.25 how is that going to help. No way I am using an agent again they burnt me way for too long. No more ripp off agent.
It's the larger homes that are more at risk. Smaller homes with lower interest rates spells young buyers. Retirees are also a strong segment of buyers for smaller homes, as they are looking for less to take care of. And in Missouri, retirees can get property taxes 100% reimbursed to them!
He said it right there "in terms of actual money" meaning people who have positive equity in their homes 80-90% of that is going away e.g. round about way of saying home prices are going to drop back to pre-bubble prices.
Right. But then he should have explained that for the average seller. Not someone in finance. My viewers have had their homes for 20-30 years. They will be fine.
@@KatiSpaniak As long as they didn't dip into that equity for something like a car, college tuition, or 2nd home(big oof).
I want to believe there is gonna be some downward pressure on home prices but the reality is my wife listed and sold a basic house for a fair price in one day last week. Full price offer. Cash.
I watch the market close and things around me sell super fast as long as it’s not overpriced. The really expensive houses are sitting tho.
Not happening around here. Homes are sitting on the market for months.
Hit the nail on the head - there's tons of buyers... buuuttt affordability and wages/debt ratio are way off. If we can make a correction for incomes, the house market will look amazing again. Just need a little help + hope
With what’s going on overseas in the Middle East and here in the US ( Job layoffs, rampant inflation ) too many people feel insecure and are not willing to go broke so as to own overpriced homes , when we do not know what will happen in the next 12 months .
Prices will crash for sure . Rates are irrelevant , We have to look at the overall price of the home , not the monthly payments based on interest rates, Sellers are too greedy and stubborn, Realtors want to make up for lower commissions by encouraging the sellers to keep prices high .otherwise they loose on commissions. Over 50% of realtors have only been able to sell 1-2 homes per the entire year!
Perfect timing for this information! I was thinking about selling my house in Texas. I have been thinking about this for a long time, and move to Florida where my daughter and her family live. Very helpful. Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
just curious, what area in FL? I'm familiar with Central and South Florida and know very good realtors in both areas.
@@seabreeze8467 Santa Rosa Beach
My first thought is that the gentleman stating the value of home are or will drop 80-90% is trying to manipulate people emotionally so his company and/or others he represents can benefit. How? By taking advantage of people.
Did you notice the guy saying that was from "Sachs Reality". Hmmm... Sounds like he is trying to scare people into listing their houses and selling whether they want to or not so he can make a buck or 10 off of them. It is crazy!
@@RiverWoods111 good observation. 👌
no he’s got nothing to gain from that news he’s giving to us he’s not a real estate agent nor broker he’s a multi billionaire money manager he predicted 2006-7 real estate crash and he’s absolutely correct this time as well you on the other hand can gain a lot from this news if you’re prepared to get in the game after SHTF
If homes values are inflated by 40 to 60% then he is correct ✅. What ppl fail to realize is 😅😮is some home values rose by almost double in such a short time that’s not a sustainable market for the long run
He means in terms of Gold...because he sells gold lol. But he's technically correct as the dollar will ALWAYS lose value against gold, so yes, someday, every home will in fact lose 80-90%, in real terms, but it won't really matter if it happens slowly and incomes inflate commensurately.
Learn my lesson in 07-08 , it's all a game, and you ain't going to win . The game is not structurally sound. A 30 year mortgage,sold on Wall Street is a game you can't win.
Luckily I am in California, our prop 13 caps the amount that property taxes can go up which is very low. Our insurance has gone up very little because we are not in a fire zone. Unfortunately, home prices are very high for new buyers. We bought our home when prices were much more reasonable. Our house has tripled in value. Unless we are moving to a new state which is not very likely because our daughters live close by I think we will stay put, it doesn’t make much sense to move.
Your home hasn't tripled, money is worth LESS, that's it.
Yea for example if you bought your place in the 70-80s it cost the same if not less in oz of gold today.
Bankruptcies are high, market is flooded, already down -60% and foreclosures are way up!
As a pillow Realtor, I had a friend recommend your channel. I absolutely love how you describe things, especially some of the new situations we now find ourselves in. I subscribed to you because you help me figure out how to explain some of these things to my buyers, I hope that is OK. You are providing a great service. Thank you.
I think they are talking about prices coming down from the over inflated 2021 ..
I have seen 60 to 100k lost on a 650k homes. It is bad not sure where you are. As we know people will always sell and buy I am in Texas and it started over a year ago
If there was an economic collapse - Wiemar republic inflation - your assessed value may skyrocket before it collapsed. You may be on the hook for a ridiculous property tax depending on timing of events and lack of legislation.
According to MLS there is more available properties than in 2008? This should drop prices but 80-90% probably not!
They've been saying Crash as soon as we recovered from the last one. It's so tiring.
They're saying that because the fundamentals that caused that crash were never fixed, which means it will happen again. The housing crash will happen after unemployment explodes. Keep your eye on the unemployment numbers.
@@LG-tw5vmIt’s interesting reading the comments on here and seeing how many people don’t get it. You’re one of the few who does.
@@Toni_Snark everything happens in cycles 🔁
@@LG-tw5vm No one went to jail, so it's really foolish in my view for people to believe that Wall Street found Jesus and "got their act together". In fact, we KNOW the opposite happened, they invented shadow banking to get around the weak Dodd-Frank regulations. Derivatives, CLO's, tranches, all that toxic stuff is still there. The only question is, will the government act proactively this time around to keep the dam from bursting? (pre-emptive bankster bailouts with our grandchildren's money?)
As a homeowner, I would be thrilled if housing prices crashed. That would allow my daughter and her husband, and millions of others like them, to afford homes. Anyone older person who owns a home and wants to downsize would find it incredibly easy to do so, as the smaller houses would have shrunk in price as well. If you don't want to buy, then the capital gains tax the government imposes will wipe out a huge portion of your sales price anyway. Lower prices are a win for most people. also, it would help A LOT if we'd stop allowing the sale of homes to foreign investors who want them just for investment purposes and keep them vacant. Over 10% of residential units are currently vacant; that is insane. Foreigners should either be required to keep their properties occupied, or be prohibited from owning them all together.
“This guy…” is Peter Schiff. He called the 2007-2008 housing crash.
I am currently getting a client set to sell his home and while searching for a home for him to purchase after selling his home, I came across our listing with 0% commission. I called the agent to inquire and he told me with the offer I can put an agenda asking for any amount that I am wanting from the seller, however, it is up to the seller to agree or not and that is why with the new compensation forms and agency form that you sign with your client you put a percentage there that will now be the responsibility of the buying agents client. So, of course, the seller will say no they will not compensate you and it will fall on your client . But since the offer is now in ,your client has no way to get out of the situation and to me, it is a catch and kill for the seller. After explaining the new compensation law, my client asked me to not show them a home where the seller has 0% commission. It will be a problem for the sellers soon enough.
I agree, it could be a potential mess going forward. I don't like the new "rules."
It is apparent why you are leading agent in our market.
Awww. Thanks Suzanne!!
I saw those podcasts too. These economists were saying the crash may be more over the next year or two, not today/right now.
Are banks (lenders) appraising homes at the asking prices? If they are, good by america.
Quality of the content of your video just made me a subscriber. Very professionally done.
Mortgage rates are historically low right now - it just was manipulated down to crazy low rates by the fed.
19:30 Todd Sachs is experienced. He’s realistic, too.. imo. Yes, his video titles are a bit clickbait-ish, but I watch his show Live on Tuesdays and usually enjoy them. His recent guest WAS over the top & if you read the comments, many people spoke from their experience of following that guest ( let me find his name ) and says he’s frequently wrong. The other clip you showed had Todd Sachs and Peter Schiff. Schiff predicted the 2008 crash, so I’d say he knows a thing or two. With all that said, I appreciate your content and perspective.
Harry Dent, Jr is the not so accurate economist whose name I couldn’t remember
Todd has real estate agents on from around the country. He has guests on that travel to various markets ( boots on the ground , eyes on the cities). In addition, he has people call in. Buys, sellers AND agents from around the country call in to ask questions or to share information about their markets
"80-90% decline in real estate prices in terms of *actual money* "
He's talking about housing priced in gold. Dollar is not money, it's a fiat currency, backed by nothing. Peter is a precious metals investor, so he looks at the economy through that lens. In the same interview he speaks about real estate prices in dollar values potentially going even higher, but paired with overall inflation across the board (i.e. purchasing power of the dollar going down... even more). Dollar has lost over 99% of its purchasing power since FED's creation in 1913. It's not the prices going up, it's the value of dollar going down, and working people's income along with it.
Make sure you check out the recent bldg sale in Portland OR that took a 87% cut from 2019 sale price of 255m, ya 87% of that! 33m to a local family real estate company.
Its an inflation crash. Home prices have not gone up as much as the inflation. An average home 5 years ago costs 25% or more in inflation adjusted dollars. So people can't afford to buy anymore along with the raised interest rates, taxes, labor/materials for maintenance.
Regarding home values falling, as you know, there is a bubble, and homes are valued hundreds of percent over what they were a few years ago.
There is a bubble and everyone is being told they are worth so much! People were scooped into "Financial Allowances" to get them into a home because "Everyone has a right to a home", whether they can afford it or not.
Professional building space has emptied over 50 percent and is not coming back.
The restructuring of these debts will render the owner's bankrupt because there is no one renting these spaces and no way to pay for them at the new interest rates coming.
The green new deal requirements will push homeowners to spend tens of thousands if not a $100,000 to be under compliance for the new "green" regulations. Homeowners will be surrendering their homes because they can't make these new changes. Foreclosures will be rampant If Elon Musk is right, there will be a 100 million people without jobs because of robotics and artificial intelligence.
How can people to stay in their homes when they're overvalued and joblessness is the word of the day.
15:40 excellent advice on (not) re-financing, however, that is an admission that buyers should wait for the price to drop "...$100,000 to $200,000" so they aren't stuck. I'd rather rent for an extra year than know that I paid a FOMO premium
Overall good video, but you are underestimating how much the market will crash when it happens. And yes, each market is different. Phoenix metro is rising in value while some markets are dropping.
No, summer months are supposed to be the best months. Interest rates don't need come down. Housing prices need to fall and fall a lot.
Foreclosures are picking up and sellers are offering concessions. Commercial real estate is not doing well. She thinks there may be another surge in home prices this year... sheesh.
Peter Schiff believes in gold and other precious metals will skyrocket because of on coming hyperinflation (look at exponential government debt and spending). No way out of this one. Home prices will also go up nominally, but on inflation adjusted basis, it will crash. That's what Peter is saying.
0:42 With respect. I do not care what you think. I care about what you know and the facts. I will think and conclude myself.
Economists like Peter Schiff and Harry Dent don’t expect an immediate 80-90% drop in home prices but do predict significant reductions in the next year due to rising layoffs and shifts to AI. With fewer high-paying jobs, the volume of buyers with purchasing power will decrease, leaving homes on the market longer. Currently, 90% of millennials regret their home purchase, which creates further hesitation among younger families worried about maintenance fees and rising insurance costs.
Additionally, many mortgage holders are losing their jobs, and around 70% of the workforce is bracing for impact. Real estate agent Ashley Pickens, who auctions off foreclosed homes, recently reported on HUD data that indicates about 3 million Americans (1 million homeowners and 2 million renters) believe they will lose their homes by September 2024. These issues could lead to a significant price drop, especially as the mass layoffs continue. Who would take on a 30-year mortgage if they're concerned about imminent unemployment?
If you can get the lending and qualify your a buyer. Liquidity is limited at the Bank level so they control the buyers unless you are a cash buyer. Price of homes may get higher (Fed Reserve keeps printing money to pay for $35 Trillion Debt but wages are not keeping up with inflation /inflation) and when they lower rate and maybe a short time deflationary window where prices go down and the Fed Reserve will print like crazy to buy all the debt and cause hyperinflation 18-24 months later. IMO, then a reset? Who the hell knows, the Fed Reserve(Not a Government Agency but a private Corp. They run the Government in certain ways.) which never gets it right.
I was in a presentation with Peter Schiff and the audience there was quite vocal against him. Many of them lost millions of dollars with Peters advice to invest in euro stocks. So he's always Stated gold going to 5,000, now 10k plus and the dollar is going to crash. People need to look at his history and make their own decisions.
He wasn't wrong. He was just early.
I listened to Peter Schiff and bought gold at $1700 when I sold my house in 2021. Gold is now $2500.
@@misssrednas it's a fair investment except the Euro stocks most of them are worthless now. Part of Peter's investment history.