Trey i chased my first ever Australian Supercell yesterday!!!! My forecast was spot on and i captured some half decent footage as well so i cant be happier!!!!!!
It's already starting too. This is going to be a very long day for Dixie Alley. Have family down in Northern LA so really hoping it's a bust, even if it doesn't look like it's going to be from early returns.
The SPC hinted at possibly considering a high risk: "The cumulative tornado threat suggests maintaining "moderate" level probabilities with this outlook cycle, but enough uncertainty remains to preclude a greater unconditional risk area." This and yesterday's D2 have been some of the most strongly worded non-high risk SPC outlooks I've seen in a long time.
I forget (apologies) - do you do live streams during severe outbreaks? I'm often tuned in to either Max Velocity or Ryan Hall, but would be interested in your take as events unfold.
No, I do not do live streams. I have been thinking about doing some, but the problem is I can't do them during the spring, so I didn't want to start doing them only to stop when severe weather is most active.
So yeah. Today was quite eventful. One crazy impressive long track supercell in damn Texas. Dropped a MASSIVE intense wedge that velocities were insane for. Then our intense tornado in Mississippi which destroyed a house and had a classic horizontal vortice to it. And we had a few strong QLCS tornadoes, one in Natchez did end up destroying a house unfortunately too. Things got really busy when those lapse rates kinda got up rapidly, better lapse rates the whole day and i imagine we could've had a even worse event then what we got for that brief hour or two..
Yeah, Southeast Texas, ended up being the main show. That super cell that produced that long track tornado in Southeast Texas. It tried to do its best 2021 Western Kentucky tornado interpretation. Thankfully, that tornado occurred relatively in the middle of nowhere for the majority of its life, when the tornado appeared intense on radar. But boy, it got really close to Port Arthur. During damage surveys , I'm curious to see how many miles that tornado tracked for. As well as how many tornadoes the supercell produced.
The fact the SPC is even sniffing the high risk tells you something. I said since 1am that it was like a 40% chance they do it....we will see.... This is still looking like one of the most intense dixie alley tornado outbreaks this could be since Rolling Fork system.
Where’d you see the SPC thinking about high risk, I’m in Hattiesburg, Ms and looking to chase for the first time, soundings looks kinda crazy in my area
What's crazy is James in last weatherbrains episode was talking about how quiet it's been in Alabama and it may just end today. Hope everyone takes it seriously
SPC did an amazing job yesterday as well as you with forecasting. They were right not to go High risk. Still got 2 EF3 and 1 Ef2 as of now. Also I think we are set to zoom past 2008 for confirmed tornadoes in a year.
The forecast verified somewhat, but the worst tornado didn’t appear to be in the enhanced region at all. Were there variables that changed that made the Houston area more vulnerable than originally anticipated?
I believe thermodynamics were quite a bit better down there compared to areas within the MDT risk. We just didn't destabilize quite enough across the warm sector farther east after the morning storms. I'll have a breakdown video out soon.
Great video has always Trey! In reading through the SPCs latest forecast, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. Do you feel that the moderate risk is justified?
Thank you! I do think a MDT is warranted given the parameter space and potential for discrete supercells and an intense QLCS. I think they're debating between MDT and HIGH at this point but looks like they've kept it at MDT.
Looking at the more recent model runs through about 02z, am I incorrect in thinking that the tornado threat parameters have somewhat weakened for much of Mississippi, and especially anywhere north of Jackson?
I’m out and about right now, so I haven’t had a chance to look, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into model runs at this point. Observed data is key now that the event is underway
do you think those tiny storms across southeast Texas and central Louisiana will have much of an effect on the storms later this afternoon? i know that you were talking about how more storm coverage across the warm sector would decrease the tornado threat so with the current storms there are right now, would those be enough to make a significant impact later on?
I don't think they'll be enough to thwart the risk. I actually think those areas of convection will become part of the "main show" as we head into afternoon.
SPC mentioned that they were considering of going a high risk but decided to expand the Moderate risk after discussing with multiple WFOs. But still, potent and dangerous day is on the way with strong to violent long tracking tornadoes possible accompanied with damaging gusts
Yes, a PDS watch is almost a guarantee at this point. The parameter space is pretty potent, so this could end up being the most potent December event since Mayfield, but we'll have to see how things progress.
Can’t put my hands on it but kinda reminds me of a different setup and outbreak, think early spring, all I remember but great video so far, still watchin it
There's a confluence band situated over east TX right now. Might be one over southern LA. Convective coverage is likely to remain isolated over the next couple hours in the warm sector given some subsidence after the early round
Coming back to this post event, you have the same skepticism that I did for this event. I don’t think a lot of uncertainty was cleared up for an upper echelon event, but a moderate was justified. I would argue one thing is that the tiny EML may have stunned a lot of the warm sector storms, combined with morning convection!
I, too, think a MDT was justified, but I couldn’t quite make the leap to HIGH (although I wouldn’t have been that surprised if they’d upgraded in the 20z outlook). I think we just didn’t quite destabilize enough after the morning round across LA/MS to support widespread discrete tornadic supercells. There wasn’t much EML at all over the warm sector; I think the bigger issue was weak forcing. With the trough lagging back just a bit, we didn’t have enough to really sustain many of those supercells in the warm sector. You usually want your jet max to be notably impacting the warm sector in some way, or some sort of evident shortwave, and we just didn’t have that.
@@Sciencetor728 This is not all that uncommon this time of year, especially down in the Gulf Coast states. This is sort of a secondary severe weather season for them
Alrighty! Time to see what unfolds today and if my forecast comes to fruition. I still think there's too much convection and a few other things that aren't lining up, but I do think a couple strong tornadoes we will see briefly. Stay safe everyone! Still have multiple ways to get a warning ⚠️, keep your phones charged, have a weather radio! 🙏 Have a strong sturdy place to go, and let your relatives know of the threat, and the length of time they need to stay safe.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Ah. I thought a Pacific front is when the Cold front has overtaken the Dry Line. Well you learn something new everyday. Especially something that is meteorological related. Also do you think the more muted 500mb Geopotential height falls across South-Central Mississippi, in combination to the weak capping could promote more of a discrete storm mode? I was looking at forecast models yesterday, and the lack of height falls across south central Mississippi caught my eye for more potential discrete convection. Which could increase the tornado threat.
@@ce9fan570 I think a discrete/semi-discrete mode is likely with any warm sector convection out there; the question is if those supercells can sustain.
Of course this year is going out like this. If it's anything like what happened earlier this year, this will be a prolific outbreak. The GFS is showing a better look for forcing, but I don't know if a long range model is accurate this close to an event.
Yeah, I tend not to look at the GFS/ECMWF this close to an event; I use those more so for getting a broad look at the pattern several days out from an event.
Lots of clearing happening, with limited convection forming in the warm sector. If uncertainty of forcing gets resolved, we will likely be going High Risk. Very dangerous and volatile day ahead.
@ Yeah that’s what I was saying that warm sector forcing in a big question mark but if that gets resolved we could see an upgrade. Thanks for your insight this setup is super complex!
Still MDT risk, and that risk area is significantly larger now. Again hinted at leaning towards High risk, but decided against it. Gonna be a long afternoon and evening for folks in LA, MS, and western AL.
They can still issue it at 3. I think they will in LA/MS given how volatile the environment is and if there is more clarity, but moderate or high, still an EXTREMELY Dangerous day ahead. We haven't seen a December threat like this since 12/10/21 with the Mayfield tornado Outbreak. Stay safe!
If the forcing questions get resolved, I'm afraid I could lean towards the worse option here. But you've heard me a lot say I'm extremely conflicted on this event so. Nonetheless, i think we are looking at a very dangerous day for many areas and warnings need to be heeded.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesLouisiana has barely any convection which is worrying me for portions of that area. If warm sector supercells do sustain, it's not gonna be good.
lets hope its more of a "bust" but chasers get to vid some good tornadoes out in the middle of nowhere where it don't bother anyone. cause we all like tornado videos.
Never wanted this but it has to happen when they get in the 70's down there, hopefully it ain't as bad after it turns into that line and go towards me...
this channel is the final destination for folks like me who have an obsession with weather/tornadoes.
"Hey everybody, Trey here!"
My day just got a little bit better :)
@@imquokkacola best tag line for weather nerds
Trey i chased my first ever Australian Supercell yesterday!!!! My forecast was spot on and i captured some half decent footage as well so i cant be happier!!!!!!
Awesome job!
It's already starting too. This is going to be a very long day for Dixie Alley. Have family down in Northern LA so really hoping it's a bust, even if it doesn't look like it's going to be from early returns.
Hopefully they’re able to avoid the worst of the storms!
SPC said they almost went with a high risk in the 1030 outlook...
good stuff man...thanks.
Did they say what made them not?
Man I can’t wait for an update to this, pds watch I’ve never even heard of. Can’t wait to catch your breakdown on that
Convective chronicles doing the lords work, keep up with the great content
Thank you!
The SPC hinted at possibly considering a high risk: "The cumulative tornado threat suggests maintaining "moderate" level
probabilities with this outlook cycle, but enough uncertainty remains to preclude a greater unconditional risk area." This and yesterday's D2 have been some of the most strongly worded non-high risk SPC outlooks I've seen in a long time.
Yeah, I guess we'll find out in a half hour!
I forget (apologies) - do you do live streams during severe outbreaks? I'm often tuned in to either Max Velocity or Ryan Hall, but would be interested in your take as events unfold.
No, I do not do live streams. I have been thinking about doing some, but the problem is I can't do them during the spring, so I didn't want to start doing them only to stop when severe weather is most active.
20k ft lifted by the PDS in Porter Heights. And we still have so much left to go. This is gonna be one exhausting day.
Can you explain ?
So yeah. Today was quite eventful. One crazy impressive long track supercell in damn Texas. Dropped a MASSIVE intense wedge that velocities were insane for. Then our intense tornado in Mississippi which destroyed a house and had a classic horizontal vortice to it. And we had a few strong QLCS tornadoes, one in Natchez did end up destroying a house unfortunately too. Things got really busy when those lapse rates kinda got up rapidly, better lapse rates the whole day and i imagine we could've had a even worse event then what we got for that brief hour or two..
Yeah, honestly went off kind of how I expected, save for the SE TX stuff
Yeah, Southeast Texas, ended up being the main show. That super cell that produced that long track tornado in Southeast Texas. It tried to do its best 2021 Western Kentucky tornado interpretation. Thankfully, that tornado occurred relatively in the middle of nowhere for the majority of its life, when the tornado appeared intense on radar. But boy, it got really close to Port Arthur. During damage surveys , I'm curious to see how many miles that tornado tracked for. As well as how many tornadoes the supercell produced.
Love ya Trey! Doin the important work!
The fact the SPC is even sniffing the high risk tells you something. I said since 1am that it was like a 40% chance they do it....we will see....
This is still looking like one of the most intense dixie alley tornado outbreaks this could be since Rolling Fork system.
Where’d you see the SPC thinking about high risk, I’m in Hattiesburg, Ms and looking to chase for the first time, soundings looks kinda crazy in my area
@@thomasholford7897 don't chase this
@@thomasholford7897 someone said in their 1030 outlook discussion they said they almost went high
What's crazy is James in last weatherbrains episode was talking about how quiet it's been in Alabama and it may just end today. Hope everyone takes it seriously
SPC did an amazing job yesterday as well as you with forecasting. They were right not to go High risk. Still got 2 EF3 and 1 Ef2 as of now. Also I think we are set to zoom past 2008 for confirmed tornadoes in a year.
@@ks86z thank you! What an incredible year it’s been tornado-wise.
Today looks like it oculd do something big, dont love it
The forecast verified somewhat, but the worst tornado didn’t appear to be in the enhanced region at all. Were there variables that changed that made the Houston area more vulnerable than originally anticipated?
I believe thermodynamics were quite a bit better down there compared to areas within the MDT risk. We just didn't destabilize quite enough across the warm sector farther east after the morning storms. I'll have a breakdown video out soon.
Please stay safe, Gulf Coast friends! Have a weather safety plan, and don’t panic!! Just take this seriously and have a place to go.
I saw this drop an hour ago but I was getting attacked by a cat and couldn't watch until now. I'm all the way up in Chicago and it feels like April.
I am glad the cat attack ceased so you could watch
Great video has always Trey! In reading through the SPCs latest forecast, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. Do you feel that the moderate risk is justified?
Thank you! I do think a MDT is warranted given the parameter space and potential for discrete supercells and an intense QLCS. I think they're debating between MDT and HIGH at this point but looks like they've kept it at MDT.
Thanks as always Trey! Hoping folks stay safe down yonder.
everyone stay safe please!!
Looking at the more recent model runs through about 02z, am I incorrect in thinking that the tornado threat parameters have somewhat weakened for much of Mississippi, and especially anywhere north of Jackson?
I’m out and about right now, so I haven’t had a chance to look, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into model runs at this point. Observed data is key now that the event is underway
do you think those tiny storms across southeast Texas and central Louisiana will have much of an effect on the storms later this afternoon? i know that you were talking about how more storm coverage across the warm sector would decrease the tornado threat so with the current storms there are right now, would those be enough to make a significant impact later on?
I don't think they'll be enough to thwart the risk. I actually think those areas of convection will become part of the "main show" as we head into afternoon.
@@ConvectiveChronicles got it, thank you! i'm still pretty new to forecasting so you're videos have been such a huge help for me!
@@Achronym That's awesome, thank you!
SPC mentioned that they were considering of going a high risk but decided to expand the Moderate risk after discussing with multiple WFOs. But still, potent and dangerous day is on the way with strong to violent long tracking tornadoes possible accompanied with damaging gusts
Thanks dude!!!
Good forecast breakdown
Thank you
What radar service do you use?
I use RadarScope for specific radars, and for mosaic radar, I use College of DuPage
This might be our last big bang of the year! Given the way 2024 has been, who knows what might happen? Stay safe everyone.
Do you think PDS tornado watch incoming? Also, do you think this is the most prolific December setup since mayfield? Thanks trey for the update!
Yes, a PDS watch is almost a guarantee at this point. The parameter space is pretty potent, so this could end up being the most potent December event since Mayfield, but we'll have to see how things progress.
That Convection is clearing out quicker than expected
True, but the question of weak forcing over the warm sector and whether it will be enough to sustain supercells this afternoon remains
Seen the cape charts over the gulf wow! 5000 at the surface
Nothing too bad in Tyler, TX so far- just regular thunderstorms.
Greatest threat should remain off to your east/southeast
@@ConvectiveChroniclesgood news, and thank you for your video, very informative!
@@1450ks Thank you!
According to KHOU, Houston’s CBS affiliate, there were at least four confirmed tornadoes in the Houston area today.
That sounds about right based on radar
Can’t put my hands on it but kinda reminds me of a different setup and outbreak, think early spring, all I remember but great video so far, still watchin it
Thank you! April 10 had a similar looking risk area in about the same location; that might be the one you're thinking of.
Wooow wasn't expecting that everyone stay safe
Is a confluence band set up in LA currently with some convective initiation?
There's a confluence band situated over east TX right now. Might be one over southern LA. Convective coverage is likely to remain isolated over the next couple hours in the warm sector given some subsidence after the early round
@ConvectiveChronicles the east Tx band produced a tornado warned supercell near Cypress, looks like it's coming to fruition
Coming back to this post event, you have the same skepticism that I did for this event. I don’t think a lot of uncertainty was cleared up for an upper echelon event, but a moderate was justified. I would argue one thing is that the tiny EML may have stunned a lot of the warm sector storms, combined with morning convection!
I, too, think a MDT was justified, but I couldn’t quite make the leap to HIGH (although I wouldn’t have been that surprised if they’d upgraded in the 20z outlook). I think we just didn’t quite destabilize enough after the morning round across LA/MS to support widespread discrete tornadic supercells. There wasn’t much EML at all over the warm sector; I think the bigger issue was weak forcing. With the trough lagging back just a bit, we didn’t have enough to really sustain many of those supercells in the warm sector. You usually want your jet max to be notably impacting the warm sector in some way, or some sort of evident shortwave, and we just didn’t have that.
Moderate risk area has been extended to include a larger area now
Really stupid question but where is the fuel for the cape coming from?
The Gulf of Mexico, slightly drier air aloft, and cooler air from the incoming trough
@ sorry, why is. This happening in late December…
@@Sciencetor728 This is not all that uncommon this time of year, especially down in the Gulf Coast states. This is sort of a secondary severe weather season for them
Alrighty! Time to see what unfolds today and if my forecast comes to fruition. I still think there's too much convection and a few other things that aren't lining up, but I do think a couple strong tornadoes we will see briefly. Stay safe everyone! Still have multiple ways to get a warning ⚠️, keep your phones charged, have a weather radio! 🙏 Have a strong sturdy place to go, and let your relatives know of the threat, and the length of time they need to stay safe.
what is a pacific front? how is it different from a cold front?
A Pacific front has a less defined temperature gradient than a true cold front.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Ah. I thought a Pacific front is when the Cold front has overtaken the Dry Line. Well you learn something new everyday. Especially something that is meteorological related. Also do you think the more muted 500mb Geopotential height falls across South-Central Mississippi, in combination to the weak capping could promote more of a discrete storm mode? I was looking at forecast models yesterday, and the lack of height falls across south central Mississippi caught my eye for more potential discrete convection. Which could increase the tornado threat.
@@ce9fan570 I think a discrete/semi-discrete mode is likely with any warm sector convection out there; the question is if those supercells can sustain.
Of course this year is going out like this. If it's anything like what happened earlier this year, this will be a prolific outbreak. The GFS is showing a better look for forcing, but I don't know if a long range model is accurate this close to an event.
Yeah, I tend not to look at the GFS/ECMWF this close to an event; I use those more so for getting a broad look at the pattern several days out from an event.
How many MDT have there been in December I mean this could be historic today or it could be a bust
We shall see!
Lots of clearing happening, with limited convection forming in the warm sector. If uncertainty of forcing gets resolved, we will likely be going High Risk. Very dangerous and volatile day ahead.
I just don’t see it given lingering questions over warm sector forcing, but SPC knows best
@ Yeah that’s what I was saying that warm sector forcing in a big question mark but if that gets resolved we could see an upgrade. Thanks for your insight this setup is super complex!
Another great analysis my friend!
Thanks so much, Willard!
Still MDT risk, and that risk area is significantly larger now. Again hinted at leaning towards High risk, but decided against it.
Gonna be a long afternoon and evening for folks in LA, MS, and western AL.
They can still issue it at 3. I think they will in LA/MS given how volatile the environment is and if there is more clarity, but moderate or high, still an EXTREMELY Dangerous day ahead. We haven't seen a December threat like this since 12/10/21 with the Mayfield tornado Outbreak. Stay safe!
Being from the Pineywoods of East Texas, I know it’s difficult to chase, just due to all the trees.
Yep, one of my least favorite areas to chase in the US
QLCS?
Quasi-linear convective system
Tornadoes have already been spotted in the Houston area.
Yes. Things ramping up quickly
Still could be an emergency upgrade to high risk if they become extremely certain.
We'll see what they do at 20z.
Day drinking, then tornadoes and football… yeah climate change is real people…. TREY is awesome
If the forcing questions get resolved, I'm afraid I could lean towards the worse option here. But you've heard me a lot say I'm extremely conflicted on this event so. Nonetheless, i think we are looking at a very dangerous day for many areas and warnings need to be heeded.
Yeah, it is a volatile situation regardless. Even if warm sector supercells struggle, the QLCS is going to pack a major punch
@@ConvectiveChroniclesLouisiana has barely any convection which is worrying me for portions of that area. If warm sector supercells do sustain, it's not gonna be good.
@@kevinjoyce285 Yes
lets hope its more of a "bust" but chasers get to vid some good tornadoes out in the middle of nowhere where it don't bother anyone. cause we all like tornado videos.
Amen to that!
Pretty crappy storm chasing terrain also. Rivers, swamps, bridges, and tree's.
It is pretty rough
Never wanted this but it has to happen when they get in the 70's down there, hopefully it ain't as bad after it turns into that line and go towards me...
Your area should see just a low-end risk, with maybe isolated damaging winds and a spinup tornado at most
@ConvectiveChronicles aight that's good for me am I right?
@@CJHurstisafisherman Yes
And now it's 3 hours later and it seems like it's fine! 👍
And also I'm just gonna go to sleep... I need it for church
I think this will go High
Not seeing that given uncertainties over warm sector supercell coverage, but not impossible