*This was recorded before the SPC upgraded to Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across southeast Texas, but the forecast logic I discuss in the video remains valid.*
Well...well....they did it. I called that yesterday that we would see the ENH be issued by the SPC but definitely they waited till the morning models were in. Conditions are really set up for a regional tornado outbreak especially on some of the new runs. Even if it's a little messy, the conditions are there for strong tornadoes.
As someone you lives in Houston, i can just say that our city truly gets storms like no other. I was driving through the May 2024 derecho and it was insane. An EF1 tornado touched down only 10 miles away from my car and i never knew.
@ConvectiveChronicles Hurricane Ike, the 2016 Tax Day Floods, Hurricane Harvey, the 2021 Winter deep freeze, the May 2024 Derecho, and Hurricane Beryl this year. Our city never catches a break lol
There was also the Pasadena - Deer Park EF3 of last year, which was one crazy twister. The supercell formed within a squall line and dropped a sig-tor so quickly. It also lead to Houston's first ever tornado emergency.
December 16, 2019 was one of the more robust setups I’ve experienced in the Southeast, so I’m not ready to make that comparison yet. But the ceiling is pretty high
10% hatched went out. I'm slightly surprised, but i eat my words as @MightyMuffins did mention this on your community play so little prediction there by him. If the mode goes messy today, i can still see a conditional sigtor threat with any discrete cell but i can't trust any storm mode given the exception of Greenfield proving sigtors or viotors can occur in a linear fashion typically with embedded supercells. Models have upticked on the wind profiles, so maybe this is the better decision then being conservative. Specifically, some of those NAM profiles catch my eye. I really think this has shades of Oct 30th to it, it's very boom or underperform time to it. This does piss me off a lot, as there's kids only getting time to experience presents and then we have a strong tornado threat for some of those out in SE TX. If we had the choice to keep severe weather out of the world during Christmas, i would happily do so but Mother Nature controls the strings here 😔
I definitely think there is a potential for a couple strong tornadoes, but I didn't expect them to add it in such a small area, they don't usually do that.
@JacobGrant-r7yThey do sometimes. yeah, i just think it's more conditional and there's no EML preventing early convection in the region which is making me second guess today even more. There is the potential for a sigtor or two depends on airmass recovery just soon
@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah, I'm very conflicted on this. Mode seems somewhat semi discrete-messy, embedded supercell stuff? Any decently discrete cell would have the best potential, but the watch is out now. It's time to start radar watching
It’s a similar setup, but Saturday looks potentially more robust given a broader warm sector and more defined surface pattern. Would not be surprised to see an upgrade.
Yeah, i thought this is far more conditional for strong tors. The mode could fire off as a confluence band, but then again we go linear and the chance of a strong tornado just gets lower unless some embedded supercell shenanigans occurs
I don’t see it either, but we’ll see. SPC knows best, and Rich Thompson spearheaded that outlook, so I trust his judgment. Saturday does look fairly robust
*This was recorded before the SPC upgraded to Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) across southeast Texas, but the forecast logic I discuss in the video remains valid.*
every time!
I knew it
Thank you Trey for all the hard work you do. We appreciate it 👍
Merry Christmas!
Came to check for a video right when this was uploaded!
Merry Christmas!
Great video Trey 😀😀😊
Thank you!
Merry Christmas Trey! Thanks for the video.
Merry Christmas!
Thank you Trey! Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year
Thank you trey
Well...well....they did it. I called that yesterday that we would see the ENH be issued by the SPC but definitely they waited till the morning models were in. Conditions are really set up for a regional tornado outbreak especially on some of the new runs. Even if it's a little messy, the conditions are there for strong tornadoes.
As someone you lives in Houston, i can just say that our city truly gets storms like no other. I was driving through the May 2024 derecho and it was insane. An EF1 tornado touched down only 10 miles away from my car and i never knew.
The Houston area does get some really wild storms; today could be no exception.
@ConvectiveChronicles
Hurricane Ike, the 2016 Tax Day Floods, Hurricane Harvey, the 2021 Winter deep freeze, the May 2024 Derecho, and Hurricane Beryl this year. Our city never catches a break lol
@@xRussianV0dka4 Yeah, y'all have been walloped quite a few times in recent memory.
There was also the Pasadena - Deer Park EF3 of last year, which was one crazy twister. The supercell formed within a squall line and dropped a sig-tor so quickly. It also lead to Houston's first ever tornado emergency.
Merry Christmas, and thanks for your videos.
Merry Christmas!
Eastern DFW had an outbreak on 12/26/15 and now the Houston metro gets an outbreak on the same day
Thanks for the forecast.
Merry Christmas, I wasn't expecting a 10# risk when I woke up.
Merry Christmas! I agree; personally, I still don’t really see it, but SPC knows best
Hope you had a great Christmas Trey! Peace and love
Thank you, same to you!
Day 3 Enhanced upgrade for Saturday just dropped, as well.
Kinda figured they might do so
Merry Christmas Trey!
Merry Christmas!
that piercing trough is quite impressive
In your opinion, how do you think Saturday looks in comparison to December 16, 2019? I’ve heard that being thrown around.
December 16, 2019 was one of the more robust setups I’ve experienced in the Southeast, so I’m not ready to make that comparison yet. But the ceiling is pretty high
@@ConvectiveChroniclesI’m right with you, thanks!
@@ConvectiveChroniclesYou see the day 3 upgrade?
If they have a enhanced risk for day 3 should get bumped to moderate
We shall see
10% hatched went out. I'm slightly surprised, but i eat my words as @MightyMuffins did mention this on your community play so little prediction there by him.
If the mode goes messy today, i can still see a conditional sigtor threat with any discrete cell but i can't trust any storm mode given the exception of Greenfield proving sigtors or viotors can occur in a linear fashion typically with embedded supercells. Models have upticked on the wind profiles, so maybe this is the better decision then being conservative.
Specifically, some of those NAM profiles catch my eye. I really think this has shades of Oct 30th to it, it's very boom or underperform time to it. This does piss me off a lot, as there's kids only getting time to experience presents and then we have a strong tornado threat for some of those out in SE TX. If we had the choice to keep severe weather out of the world during Christmas, i would happily do so but Mother Nature controls the strings here 😔
I definitely think there is a potential for a couple strong tornadoes, but I didn't expect them to add it in such a small area, they don't usually do that.
@JacobGrant-r7yThey do sometimes. yeah, i just think it's more conditional and there's no EML preventing early convection in the region which is making me second guess today even more. There is the potential for a sigtor or two depends on airmass recovery just soon
I personally don’t see it, but SPC knows best. I agree; Christmas time is the last time folks should have to worry about severe weather.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah, I'm very conflicted on this. Mode seems somewhat semi discrete-messy, embedded supercell stuff? Any decently discrete cell would have the best potential, but the watch is out now. It's time to start radar watching
Would this setup be representative of the day 3 slight risk contour over the same region, potentially seeing that getting an upgrade?
It’s a similar setup, but Saturday looks potentially more robust given a broader warm sector and more defined surface pattern. Would not be surprised to see an upgrade.
i am very surprised that they went 10% sig i thought they where just going to shrink the 5% risk not upgrade it
Yeah, i thought this is far more conditional for strong tors. The mode could fire off as a confluence band, but then again we go linear and the chance of a strong tornado just gets lower unless some embedded supercell shenanigans occurs
👍🏼
10# bust incoming lol. Saturday is looking pretty potent though
I would imagine Saturday goes enhanced for tornadoes at some point too if things look concerning.
I don’t see it either, but we’ll see. SPC knows best, and Rich Thompson spearheaded that outlook, so I trust his judgment. Saturday does look fairly robust
@@ConvectiveChronicles Yeah Saturday seems like a more classic looking Dixie outbreak. Things will certainly change though.
Saturday looks concerning too, and it will be a nocturnal threat.