I wish that this video had been posted 15 years ago when I started trading. It took me years to determine how crucial timing is. Now it is one of the three parameters I use daily (I'm too slow witted to use more than three). Great video.
Don't forget basic mistakes. I layed a trade to hedge twice somehow, then watched the entire race in play, where I had a good 4 minutes where I could have hedged out for a healthy profit not realising. But the horse somehow came back into it winning, losing me £13 in one hit lol. (small stakes) noticed about half an hour later on. I genuinely believe now these mistakes are good as you learn not to do them again firstly, but also, since I have noticed things about the markets I don't believe I ever would have noticed if I had not had a few bigger loses. The feeling it gives you is terrible and this is good as it reminds you this is a serious business. Each mess up is a step towards potentially your dream ending. Am up slightly now, just in time for winter lol.
Very good question. I noticed this months ago. Exactly 2 mins to off time in virtually every afternoon race. Evening racing not so often. I came to the conclusion it's a Bot? Then researched if it was fav being backed / laid or is it the steamer in the race or whatever. No clear or obvious results. Eg a system to back the fav at time 2.05 mins to off and lay at 1.55 mins to off. Just as many went out as came in. I would like to hear Peter's opinion on the 2 minute shakeup too.
I think it's combination of things - the two most important being TV coverage focussing attention on the next race & following the result of the previous race and it's the time when there is most known information about the runners, if you think about what happens on course, the horses have been paraded, people can see the horses temperament fitness level etc and as they move from the parade ring to the course, people make their way over to oncourse bookies to place wagers, which is money that eventually finds it's way to the exchange markets.
@@PlatinumPirateI get all of your points , but they are moving targets. It`s the " exactly at the 2 min time " that`s the query. It happens on virtually every race regardless of jumps / flat / handicap / Group or whatever. You`ll only see it in the ladders in real time , not on the BF site graphs.
Hi Peter, I want to ask you something that I didn't understand well. In England there are taxes on probable winnings made on the Betfair site, do they have to be declared? How does it work exactly? thank you kindly for your reply
Each person will have their own circumstances that need to be taken into account. But in general, there are not taxes on profits and that would mean giving relief for losses and most people loss when betting.
You can estimate that and be right more times than not only if you can calculate accurate enough the fair probabilities per horse. So it is not as simple as it sounds and that is why only a few pros take the money.
I am curious to understand why so much liquidity instantly comes when the previous race finished.i would like to know the motif behind this. Is it people doing some dogy activity like martingale ? Is it a trend that everyone will folow just because they heared of this and they will jump on this wagon ?
@@betangeltvHi Peter, really enjoying your videos whilst learning trading over the past few months. I've been trying to scalp pre-race but have been finding the markets so challenging with the low liquidity. Is it still possible to make good returns in these conditions? Or would you recommend steering clear?
It sounds weird but sometimes i enjoy the statistic side and find exploits in markets more fun that the actual trading. I also see a lot of people making a mistake of taking the average statistic for goals and time , as a true value , As how to read avg stats is actualy Example : avg goals then count the number of games that where under that average and the number of games that above that average . The same with Time average first goal is 21 minutes then count the number of matches that had goals under that time and the number of matches over that time. Same principle counts for under over goal markets. As people do tend to use the avg for specific markets . and often get burned .
masa alkhayr ya stadh ana min aleiraq aismi khalid ana min aleiraq yujad aldiyna alwtu mukawan min 29 kawrih arid an airbah kayf arbah alriqam alyawm kan 28 16 11 25. 10. 4 matuqaek mubead hadha alriqam yati airju tajib ealy alsuwyl
لأن اليانصيب يعتمد على العشوائية، لا توجد طريقة سهلة للتنبؤ بالأرقام التي ستُسحب. ولكن لدي فيديو قادم الشهر المقبل سأتحدث فيه عن طرق أفضل للمشاركة. قد يكون مفيدًا لك.
I wish that this video had been posted 15 years ago when I started trading. It took me years to determine how crucial timing is. Now it is one of the three parameters I use daily (I'm too slow witted to use more than three). Great video.
Many thanks
Don't forget basic mistakes. I layed a trade to hedge twice somehow, then watched the entire race in play, where I had a good 4 minutes where I could have hedged out for a healthy profit not realising. But the horse somehow came back into it winning, losing me £13 in one hit lol. (small stakes) noticed about half an hour later on. I genuinely believe now these mistakes are good as you learn not to do them again firstly, but also, since I have noticed things about the markets I don't believe I ever would have noticed if I had not had a few bigger loses. The feeling it gives you is terrible and this is good as it reminds you this is a serious business. Each mess up is a step towards potentially your dream ending. Am up slightly now, just in time for winter lol.
Your videos are like a college course. I feel like I owe you money. Many Many thanks
Please send your cheque to....
But seriously, I appreciate the thanks. I try to educate, so it's great to hear that people find it valuable.
What do you think really is happening at 2 minutes because it's right on cue every time?
Very good question. I noticed this months ago. Exactly 2 mins to off time in virtually every afternoon race. Evening racing not so often. I came to the conclusion it's a Bot? Then researched if it was fav being backed / laid or is it the steamer in the race or whatever. No clear or obvious results. Eg a system to back the fav at time 2.05 mins to off and lay at 1.55 mins to off. Just as many went out as came in. I would like to hear Peter's opinion on the 2 minute shakeup too.
I think it's combination of things - the two most important being TV coverage focussing attention on the next race & following the result of the previous race and it's the time when there is most known information about the runners, if you think about what happens on course, the horses have been paraded, people can see the horses temperament fitness level etc and as they move from the parade ring to the course, people make their way over to oncourse bookies to place wagers, which is money that eventually finds it's way to the exchange markets.
When I've studied this period, it looks like hedging to me. I've looked at it in great depth.
@@PlatinumPirateI get all of your points , but they are moving targets. It`s the " exactly at the 2 min time " that`s the query. It happens on virtually every race regardless of jumps / flat / handicap / Group or whatever. You`ll only see it in the ladders in real time , not on the BF site graphs.
Interesting little Easter egg. I'll keep an eye on it.
Hi Peter, I want to ask you something that I didn't understand well. In England there are taxes on probable winnings made on the Betfair site, do they have to be declared? How does it work exactly? thank you kindly for your reply
Each person will have their own circumstances that need to be taken into account. But in general, there are not taxes on profits and that would mean giving relief for losses and most people loss when betting.
the most important thing is price which is associated with timing
How do you know which is horse is about to steam or drift though?
You can estimate that and be right more times than not only if you can calculate accurate enough the fair probabilities per horse. So it is not as simple as it sounds and that is why only a few pros take the money.
There are many ways to trade the market, not all of them involve spotting a steam or drift. I've done videos on most trading styles.
Some Irish races go off on time in my experience!
shukran lak aistadhi aleaziz tahiaati min dawlat aleiraq ali bi almuhibuh walitaqdir an yumkin 'an nusbih sadiqan adha taqabal muqtarahn
I am curious to understand why so much liquidity instantly comes when the previous race finished.i would like to know the motif behind this. Is it people doing some dogy activity like martingale ? Is it a trend that everyone will folow just because they heared of this and they will jump on this wagon ?
Because people are degenerate gamblers and they just lost a race
Its just people want to move on to the next race to bet on or trade, mostly I might say?
There still must be more to this.asthis is a big thing when the previous race finish and they move onto the next.who are these people? Gamblers?
If you look at jockey trainer gambles, money moves from one market to another. So one market outcome does influence another.
@@betangeltvHi Peter, really enjoying your videos whilst learning trading over the past few months. I've been trying to scalp pre-race but have been finding the markets so challenging with the low liquidity. Is it still possible to make good returns in these conditions? Or would you recommend steering clear?
It sounds weird but sometimes i enjoy the statistic side and find exploits in markets more fun that the actual trading.
I also see a lot of people making a mistake of taking the average statistic for goals and time , as a true value , As how to read avg stats is actualy Example : avg goals then count the number of games that where under that average and the number of games that above that average . The same with Time average first goal is 21 minutes then count the number of matches that had goals under that time and the number of matches over that time.
Same principle counts for under over goal markets. As people do tend to use the avg for specific markets . and often get burned .
Sounds like you should get into automation 👍
masa alkhayr ya stadh ana min aleiraq aismi khalid ana min aleiraq yujad aldiyna alwtu mukawan min 29 kawrih arid an airbah kayf arbah alriqam alyawm kan 28 16 11 25. 10. 4 matuqaek mubead hadha alriqam yati airju tajib ealy alsuwyl
لأن اليانصيب يعتمد على العشوائية، لا توجد طريقة سهلة للتنبؤ بالأرقام التي ستُسحب. ولكن لدي فيديو قادم الشهر المقبل سأتحدث فيه عن طرق أفضل للمشاركة. قد يكون مفيدًا لك.