TSLA 2030: $100 or $30,000?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ก.ย. 2024
- Three models of Tesla stock in 2030 showing TSLA as low as $100 per share or as high as $30,000.
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I think $1000-1500 seems reasonable by 2030, everything else seems so lala land for now. Market cap 88T is INSANE
Gasp
exactly. I respect Redlich but he is an uber bull beyond comprehension. Im not even gonna entertain the idea of anything above $1.200
Quadrillion is in sight
no way. Look how long it took these big companies to reach 2T, this guy things they will reach 88T. Your also not considering that we might be in an over valued market.
Germany won’t let VW fail and Japan won’t let Toyota fail. At least they’ll try. The Chinese might eventually find success exporting their cars. 20M Tesla cars per year is as improbable as Tesla going flat at 2M cars sold per year. One thing Warren seems not to factor in the probably decrease in the number of cars once robo-taxis go mainstream. The number cars sold annually might drop by as much as 90%, in fact. Under this scenario Tesla is more like a $1000 stock (without dilution of course).
$30K works for me 🔥
500k for you
100K by 2040 is realistic
Right?
I would be happy with that
Reasonable analysis I'm somewhere in the middle Thinking by 2030 it should be at about $3,500 which is aligned with a lot of what many of us were thinking before the split when it was $1,000 to go to $10,000.. the fundamentals just keep getting better I still can't believe we're sitting at $200 right now in 2023.
Fantasy? I drive FSD Beta all the time. It's real baby!
@@ken-mb5cp You tried FSD yet?
@@ken-mb5cp fsd beta is already equal to humans. Won't be long until it's vastly superior. 2 more weeks.
Fsd is not there yet. Is hard programming project. But with splits is 3000
With splits are we talking 3000 from present 200 price or 3000 from when it went to 1300 last year?
I have more faith in bots than robotaxi. Let’s hope I’m wrong. Your confidence is contagious Warren. See you in 2030.
Me too, but I'm confident in both. 85% & 95% by 2028
I think you right Steven 🤔 not sure about robotaxi because every government will make maximum on their power to stop it (legislation”corruption”etc )and not happen
2 years ago it was terrible, now it drives better than you. How long until it is 10x better, 100x better?
@@ryanolson2430 I haven’t had an accident since I was a teenager. Can it go 40 years without an accident. That’s when I will use it.
@@stevenanderson9660 superhuman is inevitable.
Your base case sounds pretty reasonable to me. It works out to a "slower" TSLA growth of 30% per year for 8 years.
Seems reasonable, except that $32 earnings would require a p/e of 63 to hit $2000. I'd use a more realistic p/e of 35-40, which would put the stock at $1100-1300.
@@darylfoster7944that's 🥜 returns😢
I like the battery model you did last year. Using energy units was a smart and clean way to estimate Tesla growth and profit. Coming up with a way to determine energy production cost depreciation due to scaling would be great addition. Adding a SAS section once FSD and Bot AI sales look enviable would be cool as well. I’d really like to see Zach Kirkhorn’s worst case, base case and best case estimates. Lol
Do you guys want me to sell all my shares so it can go to $30,000 a share tomorrow?
I currently have 4500 shares of SCHD! My goal is 5k shares. This is my retirement plan!! My portfolio consists of 200 voo 200 vug 150 vgt 4500 SCHD!
Holy smokes! That's amazing, I'm so happy for you! How long did it take you to amass that many shares
@@chen3956 thank you
I have a portfolio consisting of SCHD and individual tech stocks such as AMZN, APPL, GOOGL, NVDA, and TSLA. A mix of growth (tech) and peace of mind investing (SCHD). I have a long time-horozn.
I think your base case is more realistic but hoping $TSLA goes much higher
OK, my prediction by the end of 2023 is $400-450. 1500 USD would be great by 2025. 2000-3000 USD by 2030 who knows.
It’s $165 and it’s 2023 hhheheheh
@@sakamoshikaka9939hehe
After using FSD Beta for 2 months; I don’t think Robo-Taxi will be up and running for a minimum of 10 years. FSD is simply too hard to attain.
Agree, everybody overestimate what Tesla can accomplish in 2030 and underestimate what can be done by 2035.
I like the numbers. Very well put & easy to comprehend.
Cars started to ramp in 2020. Energy in 2024. Robotaxi I think about 2027. Bot about 2030. We have at the very least a 10x from here in 8 years.
Warren, first this was a very good video, but you might have missed one huge point. I think Elon will announce the building of giga-farms next month to produce solar electricity on mass in the next few years, this could have the potential to double all revenue in 10 years or so. We will have the announcement on the first projects om March 1st, later on these can even be built and installed with bots on land not used in sunny desolate places, also raised providing shade for agriculture. As Elon says, "The future looks bright."
I tried to model solar and the numbers just never came up big.
It’s a good thing solar farms are free to build. And also that you don’t need any infrastructure to get the solar farm power to any cities.
Tsla is a multi decades hold. Elon musk’s vision and execution is just out of this world…
Thanks for this calculation, however I think this is only useful up to the point of the market cap estimate, once you vary the number of shares on each scenario then the price per share can be use to compare.
This doesn’t take dojo as a service into consideration. Things can get crazier
As Tesla is growing, the PE ratio will drop, because there's limit to growth? so 50 in 2030 is too optimistic?
1600 share price is my target by 2030. Elon has said that the energy market could be bigger than their auto division.
I have about $10K in the stock. If I lose $5K in the "nightmare scenario" I can live with that for the upside potential. Seems like a good trade.
I just doubled my 89,000. And this s*** is just getting started
Did you forget! Tesla builds cars sometimes in-between 😂.
I will add 100 with 30000 and then divide the sum by 2. So my Tesla target price for 2030 is $15,050.
The first time Warren really grabbed my attention was in 2020 when he sketched several models, love these vids!
Excellent summary. My only quibble in your optimist model is that if they have achieved that much growth by 2030 I think their growth beyond 2030 may be slower, so the PE in 2030 should be lower, maybe 25. But that still gives SP of $15k, which aint bad.
Robotaxi and Bot growth in 2030 will be very high. Robotaxi fleet will go to 100M+ and Bots will also grow like crazy.
@@WarrenRedlichhow many plant to get to hundred million robo taxis. Only 5 years from when new plants built to full capacity. Details. Yet they will use the bots first. So amazing future ahead for Tesla and investors.
2500 i would thanks God already
Intrinsic value calculation for TSLA ~ $58.63 per share if one uses EPS= 3.32 and 5-year estimated growth (guesses) of 10.66% per year. Data from Yahoo Finance. Growth estimates from unknown analysts. Basically, fewer cars will be purchased (financed) as the recession gets deeper and loan rates rise.
That 10% its a joke. Q1 alone YvY was already triple that. WS just hates on tesla hard. I dont know if it will be 1k per share but Im sure it will triple investment at least
not sure that tesla will sell the Optimus when they could lease it for $20000 per year and still under cut a human employee by $50000 a year and provide more labour/productivity.
if they make 20 million a year they will quickly get to 100 million in the fleet - $2T per year...
It's about where i am today..but i have FAITH.
67% net profit margins are unfathomable.
Bull case is also 1.9x of the market cap of current entire US stock market.
Just a 50% growth from $200 gives you $5125 share price in 2030. And I would say the current price is artificially suppressed.
You Tesla bulls need to learn about market cap...
$30,000 per share would give it a marketcap of $80 TRILLION dollars...
That would put TSLA stock as 2x as valuable as the ENTIRE S&P is right now.
It's not even a possible figure...
First principles
within a week it went from 215 to 248 so there's that get on while you can it's going to go up from there! 1000-1500 sounds good to me! Put in 10,000. I think that is pretty darn good.
Great video as always. I'm not sure if Tesla would continue selling vehicles if they had their own robotaxi fleet? If a robotaxi makes $500k revenue in it's lifetime then selling it for $50k would make no sense.
I'm also not sure how many private people will want to put their vehicles in a robotaxi fleet without oversight. Feels like a good recipe for having it come back all greasy with a funny smell or something.
The private fleet size in both models is far smaller than the number of privately owned Tesla's in 2030.
Or with vomit, mud, spilled food. Who is going to clean the car between rides?
I hope you're right Warren!
That thunder foot guy is making fun of the Tesla bot 🤖
Tesla Bot is making fun of Thunderf00t
He's a huge idiot, met him in person many times.
I agree with your numbers, Warren - the only challenge for the stock hitting somewhere between your Base and Optimist stock valuations is Wall Street's sentiment (they've always had Tesla's stock in a stranglehold). Realistically, the stock could be worth $15K by 2030 but Wall Street might only have it at $2,000. Bastards
Wall Street sentiment could also swing overly positive. It did in the past for GE and Cisco.
@@WarrenRedlich I certainly hope! Fingers crossed
Stocks are based on earnings, in the long run, not Wall Street hype. Realistically, TSLA will not be at $15k, because that would require roughly $500/share earnings, which ain't gonna happen.
Are we still on track for this stock price? I have 4005 shares of TSLA and need to cash for retirement.
If the $100/share hit the company would be out of business. Anything can happen but that’s saying they go bankrupt basically
GARGANTUAN Delta between Base and Optimist????!!! My range is $10k to $30k.
Tesla energy can go crazy across globe. 50x to 100 x by 2030 can easily be possible
With all due respect, Robotaxis will not be a factor until after 2030. Gov't regulations will not allow it. All it takes is one accident and the recalls will be exponential
I'll be overjoyed with Cathie Wood's $2k SP in 2027.
i would value Tesla assuming no robotaxi. It is not a nightmare scenario as the tech will work with Optimus.
Some things are dangerous, like putting chips in people and AI rejection or suspension by markets could be a drag on positive scenarios. Competitin and market saturation play a big part too.
I’ll take anything between base and optimist ~$14,000 per share
I can't wait to see this, I am at work, but will view it tonight!
This reminded me of your "Napkin Math" video of 10 months ago, of TSLA to $50,000 (pre 3-1 split), and I commented late, so I don't think you ever saw my comment...
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I just watched it again, hoping to memorize the calculation to show people I am trying to convince them that TSLA has a bright future, but something doesn't make sense...maybe I am doing it wrong, but assuming 3 Twh are for vehicles, and 3 Twh are for stationary batteries, I was thinking, just to back check, how many cars is that?
3Twh/50kWh = 60 million? Even doubling the average, 3Twh/100kWh = 30 million, which seems a bit much, as really the best they are aiming for is 20 million vehicles.
What do you think? Thanks again for all your work and for sharing it so freely!
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I think we're down to 3 TWh total for 2030 including 1.5 TWh for vehicles and 1.5 TWh for energy storage
1.5 TWh of batteries at 75 kWh per pack is 20M vehicles
Gen3 vehicle will be closer to 50 kWh but Cybertruck will be over 100 kWh and Semi is close to 1000 kWh
Bull case results in a market cap that is 4.2x of the entire current US money supply
Lol
The prices you are referring is with the 2 stock splits...so the less optimistic would be 100$ (old price 1500$), that's people expectations, and the people expectations in November 2021 was around 414$ (old price 6200$). So how you make those calculations to reach prices like 29.000$(old price 435.000$) in 3 years for the best optimistic scenario ? Ark Invest talks about 2000$ (old price 30.000$) in 3 years. How can the difference be so great... that 29.000$ looks more in 10 years like what happened from 2010 till 2020 gain.
I think you're right we may not see robo taxi but I believe will be forward increase on battery storage and power wall .and mega storage will definitely be at least 500 to 800 a share with out taxi before 2030 min
Learned of you from Alex's video today which showed a clip of your contempt for him.
Personally, I like his content and his humor is fantastic.
I look forward to learning where you stand on things.
Alex as in E for Electric?
What about DOJO?
Fun! What do you think about adding a line for cash held? Are you double counting cars made and held for Robotaxi Fleet and cars made as if all sold?
till they start displaying the cyber truck with paint and even custom paint...it's going to keep looking weird...or even custom wraps
Almost everything in the optimist case seems possible. 20 million bots is the only thing I'd confidently bet against. Smaller size does not imply lower manufacturing complexity.
Licensing FSD to other autos could be another high margin revenue stream.
Bare in mind that bots are more like general electronics compared to cars that need to fit in so much more safety regulation. I still believe 20M is very optimistic by 2030
As I said in the video, that could be 2032 or 2035
@@WarrenRedlich Yeah I think 2035 is reasonable. Any thoughts on licensing FSD to other autos?
I don't think other brands want that
I ❤ the bots for some reason. They are priceless.❤
100 a share is worst case scenario. Makes me nothing lol my cost basis is 139 but 30k now I’m a millionaire lol.
What is the source for the 1,500 GWh per year in energy storage?
Til now i could not find a goal from Tesla on energy storage.
I think they may have reduced it to 1 TWh (1000 GWh) in the recent white paper.
Well done, thanks
Why did sp change from 2000 to 1650 .
I know that these numbers are high in the bull case but I believe it will happen sooner or later. Hopefully I will have close enough to 100 shares by then. Thanks for the video Warren 👍🍻.
I really like the way you explained your perspective on Tesla 👍
There are today 3/3/2023 about 3.3 billion outstanding Tesla shares : ) Why $88TRILLION market cap sounds pretty good!
Thanks!
Thank you!!!
Germany won’t let VW fail and Japan won’t let Toyota fail. At least they’ll try. The Chinese might eventually find success exporting their cars. 20M Tesla cars per year is as improbable as Tesla going flat at 2M cars sold per year. One thing Warren seems not to factor in the probably decrease in the number of cars once robo-taxis go mainstream. The number cars sold annually might drop by as much as 90%, in fact. Under this scenario Tesla is more like a $1000 stock (without dilution of course).
So will it suddenly go to 30k? If not what will it be in 2025? 20k it sounds unlikley.
I think there's a 100% chance that it'll not stay where it is
PS I don't really like that you messed with the float, the share prices would be based on the floats, would have been easier to think about it from the perspective of today if the float count stayed the same (even if it could be seen as unrealistic)
I should have explained. Float goes up in the nightmare scenario due to dilution. It goes down in the optimist scenario from buybacks.
Another thing missing here is Elon is quietly working on his own AI projects, chip making etc which just might free a lot of money up for expansion. I am thinking maybe, just maybe, you are pegging him as a car manufacturer and he is so much more than that, Space X alone, when it comes on line will make tons of money. I-know, this is all conjunction but to think it is how it comes to fruition .
I'm at 160 a quarter million dollars. I know damn well I'm going to be extremely rich
Nice video, number 3 sounds unlikely but like your thoughts nonetheless. Best regards
More stock splits ahead?
I think Tesla is very close to making self driving cars better than the average human if they have not already. I have watched recent FSD videos recently and they are really good. I am also very bullish on FSD after seeing Chat GPT.
Despite subscribing with notifications on, this video was difficult to find.
The TH-cam works in mysterious ways
Don’t for get to add that time frame to your age when figuring out your odds to enjoy the profits.
It's for my kids.
Warren, love the video but I think the base case including robotaxis is very optimistic. We know from a technological standpoint, they are well on their way to achieving full self driving and steadily going forward on their march of 9s. But I think there will be a lot of political forces that will prevent driverless vehicles (especially teslas) from being approved to be on the road. The media’s magnification/fixation on Teslas failures on the road will bring a lot of heat. All it takes is out of 1 million robotaxis on the road, 10 accidents without a driver behind the wheel to kick of a media frenzy.
You made an error Warren, you forgot licensing out FSD to other makers. Like, let's say 20 million assorted, Ford, GM, BYD, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, VW etc at $20k a pop. That's another $400 billion GP and probably $360B nett. Apply a PE of 10- add $3.6 trillion to the MC - Apply a PE of 50 - add another $18 trillion to the MC. Of course they wouldn't be allowed to be robo taxis just self driving cars.🙂👍
I'm not convinced other car makers will agree to license FSD. It would harm their brands.
@@WarrenRedlich May be,, but but if faced with bankruptcy they may have no choice.
Tesla ignores to share their car in India. Highly populated nation. They must have think again how to deal with Indian government.
Only small things could change the game, they have to do just setup their manufacturing unit here in India.
That would help Elon to get rid of 100% taxation here in India.
A relative of mine is the biggest skeptic I know. I forwarded this to him. I'll try again to convince him. I want him to do well, to have a good conviction but liberalism clouds his judgement.
WTF, help me out I can't understand why is "Net at 2/3 Gross" - shouldn't it be "Net at 1/3 Gross"? Is Warren taking two thirds of the revenue as earnings????
2/3 of gross profit, not of revenue
Let us buy some more shares before the 1st March.
Hope everyone is not counting on the Cybertruck for huge sales because, IMO, unless you are going to use the Cybertruck to haul your groceries from Costco to home as competition to the Mercedes G-Wagons, it makes no sense as a work truck and I will explain.
First, regardless of has been published in the past the Cybertruck will certainly cost a lot more than the Model Y which is over $70K including delivery, licensing and registration and state taxes.
Second, as a work truck the range is drastically reduced if you are hauling a trailer (and who does not) and range even drops more in the Winter.
Third, because of the unibody construction with those panels and large battery an accident will probably result in a total loss (who is capable of repairing and what is the cost of the panels) which will make the insurance almost unaffordable.
Fourth, the cost to charge a tri-motor at $0.43 per kilowatt-hour will be pushing $100.
Additionally here in the US, current car interest rates for new cars with good credit is around 6.27% so if you are all in out the door for $80K including taxes, delivery and license (I personally believe it will be a higher number), and you take a 60 month loan with 10% down your monthly payment will be ~$1400USD and that does not include insurance which I estimate will be at least $3K a year so ~$1650 a month for 60 months. Quite expensive, IMO, so maybe only for rich people.
I talked to a guy driving a larger pickup pulling a huge trailer. He loved the Cybertruck idea.
An truck / car with a simple bent frame rail is totaled. How is that any better or worse than a Cybertruck.
I can see a share price of $1500-2000 but the $30K is definitely out of this world. Your valuations are way too high in my opinion. Definitely keeping my shares until 2030 so we just have to wait and see.
Yeah, optimist case doesn’t make sense
What part of the optimist case doesn't make sense?
All rediculous - EV sales simply can't expand beyond approximately 5 million a year until something better than lithium arrives - it is also needed to get EVs to achieve their promise as green vehicles - current EVs weigh 4000+ lbs as much as a Hummer H3. That means they cost more energy to make and move. Electricity is still over 80% fossil fuel and generally 15% or more is lost in transmission and charging. Until that changes EVs are a niche.
How would a WWIII change your Nightmare model?
Ya. I doubt we will even see 2030. Sad as it is to say.
WW3 would likely be the end
When you look at the current IBM and Salesforce PE ratio after such pedestrian growth/financials over the years, can you imagine what PE ratio Tesla can have with this battery model with FSD margins in sight and the Optimus progression by 2030. To those saying, well you're comparing apple to oranges, to be more technical apple to android(pun intended,) you have to understand that market is buying both oranges and apples so, they will compare it when choosing where to allocate their capital. 😂😂😂
Optimist scenario has a bunch of issues- 1) You have assumed $20k GM on sale of cars, which is very unlikely as they would have go for lower costs cars to scale to 20M. 2) If you are assuming a Tesla robotaxi fleet of 10M, that would be over and above the 20M that they are selling per year- again unlikely. 3) $50K GM for Optimus is also excessive if you want to scale to 20M per year. Having said all of this the target may not be wrong, as there a bunch of software levers - FSD licensing, Insurance (yes i consider it a s/w play), Autobidder and Bot skill based s/w that overcome these assumptions. Finally, i do expect Tesla to start doing buybacks and therefore the number of shares available to below 3B, maybe even 2.5B. So long and short of it, $30K/share is a possibilty, i just take issue with your assumptions that help you get there.
Great comment!
1) GM rises in optimist scenario because of increased value of FSD. Software is very high margin.
2) The robotaxi fleet would be built up over a few years before 2030. Agree that some of the 20M would go into the fleet so that's a bit of a flaw in the model.
3) People massively underestimate the value of Optimus. If it works 4000 hours a year doing $15/hour work, it generates $60K per year in value. And if it works for 10 years ...
I don't see insurance or autobidder as significant and have yet to see anyone explain their long term value as being significant. Once FSD goes live insurance goes to zero as crashes go to zero.
With the world going in this direction, 90% of Americans are going to be poor, possibly hungry I don’t think we can consider the masses of the day assumed to be the same numbers of financially able masses over the next decade… thoughts?
I’ve been a huge FSD bull, but it’s still pretty useless in the city where I live. I think it’s a 20 year out tech, not 5 year. Hope I’m wrong.
Great analysis - thoughts, thanks for sharing. Yes, some think the Robotaxi numbers are crazy - unlikely. But think about all the Elon Ideas that were NOT Included: Insurance - Home heating/cooling heatpump - Utility + Solar/VPP/network profits, Tesla Texas was approved, more to come? Europe Utility? World Utility? - Megapack service at what 2% per year every year for all previously sold units - new ideas? Remember that Warren Buffet became the worlds richest man via Berkshire - Insurance Float used to buy other companies. Will Tesla use some of the $20 billion cash to buy lithium miners?
I left those other ideas out because they're relatively small.
With that said, I haven't tried to measure how a Tesla utility business would perform. I'm not sure how to do that.
@@WarrenRedlich If the total net cash gets high enough I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla get into Thorium based micro nuclear reactors. There are shipping container sized designs now in the 20-40 megawatt range. If they could mass produce a relatively safe small reactor backed by their grid power levelling batteries they are already making they could potentially dominate the power grid worldwide. That could make all of their other business look small by comparison.
I do believe the truth is between base and optimistic. Market cap 27 trillion in 2030
Hey Warren, how can I DM you?
If you're verified on X you can DM me there
I don’t think a base case should include robo taxi or nots. It’s not proven. I would leave a base case with those off and more middle of the road forecast for proven markets.
Soooo
I did good buying 44 shares this week at $197?
First stock I ever bought on my own. (yes I have a 401K)
Do u buy more?
Your 2018 Tesla won't be a robo taxi, they keep upgrading hardware. You'll have to buy a new Tesla
Disagree but we'll find out in 2-3 years maybe
And I have 2 cybertrucks on order so ...
overall net profit of 2/3xgross is a pipe dream I think, 1/3 would probably still be overly optimistic. Also, didn't Elon say their target price for optimus is 20k?
yeah surely he made a typo - net profit should be maximum 1/3, closer to the 15%-33% historical margins. That would bring down is bear case to $50.
I could be wrong but I think net profit is typically 2/3 of gross profit.
I think I mentioned uncertainty about that in the video.
@Warren Redlich 2/3 of gross profit, maybe... but you're using 2/3 of gross income. Very different.
I don't think you understand
@@WarrenRedlich The feeling is mutual. Please, explain where I'm going wrong.
It really is a waste of time to make up figures that in reality none of the figures will be correct.
I find your base case way too optimistic
Novice
Nice projection. Can you do one more excluding all manufacturing from other countries? Doesn't Berlin depend on China for major parts?
Tesla is working on localizing supply chains for all their factories.
You have to be realistic and consider Market Cap. No company has ever gone over 4T circa 2023. Ron Baron, whom is down to earth and I respect gives TSLA a market cap of 6T to 10T by 2033. You can get wild and multiply that by 2. Any projection beyond that, it's time to call the men in the white hospital jackets.