2025 Oscar Predictions - Director/Screenplay | June 2024
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 มิ.ย. 2024
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Ricky Stanicky for Screenplay and Rebel Moon part 2 for Directing? Kinda bold tbh
nothing hits better than coming home to a new oscar expert prediction vid
The state of ‘the apprentice’ feels like one from a dystopian future. A movie that could be un distributed, not because it is bad, but because studios fear the repercussions of its release.
It’s not bad but it’s not amazing either.
If Steve McQueen gets nominated, he will become the first ever Black filmmaker (regardless of nationality) to be nominated for Directing twice. Will be interesting to see whether that glass ceiling will be broken.
That’s awesome and also kinda sad. There’s plenty of black filmmakers that I think could’ve been nominated more than once.
@@poett8875 Facts
Can't belive this is true, but it'd be awesome too. I do believe Steve is in for the nom
Steve McQueen is such a great director, can’t wait to see his latest
I Hope he wins
I can only praise the achievement of Dune: Part Two. Movie of the Year! Is there any doubt?
I had a lot of confidence in Queer, but then I thought most potential moviegoers would see the title and just say "not for me." Fewer people will watch it than you'd expect for the director of Challengers.
I find it physically hilarious that Dakota Johnson for Madame Web is above the actress from Sacred Fig on your app
As someone who has read Nightbitch, I think you need to take it more seriously. It’s not just about motherhood, it’s about art and is kind of a coming of age story. I wasn’t a HUGE fan of the book but I think it’s gonna lend itself well to the visual medium.
I feel like we hear this every year though. And I don’t have much confidence in Heller’s ability to make a visually impressive film as of right now.
what's this Dune 2 slander on this thread? 😭
there won't be many more award worthy films this year over Dune
It's insanity, pure snobbery for no reason. They'll keep talking shit once the awards come in and Dune's sweeping as it fucking SHOULD
Anora I think is this years Parasite
I reckon itll be the first American Oscar Palm Winner, I also see it winning director
Dune I can see winning techs with Wicked & Furiousa
As a Brit, I can confirm there will be multiple bombing scenes in Blitz 😭
Great video bro
Everyone underestimating Blitz, just wait
I was listening to this without video, I'd minimized TH-cam and was using my screen to work. It was a fascinating conversation to listen to because you two have the same voice, and it was like hearing one person have a full-blown conversation with... themself or themselves?
It was so entertaining that I was laughing out loud. Being able to finish each other's sentences yet disagree with each other's opinions was riveting!
One voice : Two different opinions. Trippy! That should be in a movie - instead of 1 character with lines, you turn the characters into twins and they share the lines of dialogue.
I pounded the Subscribe button! More unscripted twin debates!
I recently saw an extras casting call for Mother Mary so yes I think it’s still in production. I talked to someone who worked on the film in the first shooting bloc and I feel like they might be reshooting some stuff
let's stop acting like that is an awards-caliber film
Cat!
😺
Rasoulof getting nominated would be wild that's very high but I wouldn't hate it im just thinking NEON may even have more priorities in the fall...
Isn't 'Sing Sing' the Hollywood version of the Taviani brothers impressive film 'Cesare deve morire' or 'Caesar Must Die'?
Seed of the Sacred Fig 🔥
Seed of the sacred fig is gonna fizzle out and be forgotten by the time awards happen. It‘s the political angle that got it attention and it‘s not related to america like with the salesman or smth. It‘s not like they suddenly went crazy on No Bears when Jafar Panahi had a similar narrative
My Best Director list
Denis Villeneuve - Dune part 2🏆
Steve Mcqueen - Blitz
Mohammed Rasoulof - Seed of the Sacred Fig
Sean Baker - Anora
Clint Eastwood - Juror no 2
Todd Phillips would get Golden Globes, Critics Choice and DGA.
Edward Burger would only get Bafta.
Best Original Screenplay
Anora🏆
Blitz
Seed of the Sacred Fig
A Real Pain
Juror no 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Sing Sing🏆
Dune part 2
Conclave
The Nickel Boys
Queer
Was the Burger intended?
@@Lscala yes
Edward Berger ❌ Edward Burger ✅
Being honest, Emilia Perez screenplay is very original
The previous contenders didnt make justice to the category name
Which previous contenders? Cuz films like Parasite and Get Out are pretty original
"Get Out" wasnt original
@@jmccflip 2020 contenders, except eeaao
Hit Man = Palm Springs. Its journey ends at the Globes
Laughable comparison. Hit Man is from an established filmmaker with a rising movie star the industry will want to celebrate eventually. It’s also from a much bigger distributor who can easily campaign the film.
@@Lamidemonami7891 ok let me give you another. Eddie Murphy in Dolemite is My Name. An actor everyone thought the Academy would want to recognize in a movie backed by Netflix. No movie is gonna be 1 to 1, but my point is that the pure comedies don’t really land nominations unless you’re one of the biggest movies of the year (see Barbie)
Do you think Payal Kapadia or Jacques Audillard might be vying for that coveted international director spot this year other than Luca and Mohammad?
Because of Netflix, I see Audillard having a better chance
Great short-sleeve game in this one
Hopefully, Denis gets a break this time.
Madame Web sweep
True
Could "Inside Out 2" get in adapted with a good performance at the Box Office or passion behind it?
25:09 Brother bro’s face LOL
Wow. I think it is possible that none of your first 8 won't get nominated. No frontrunners in sight till now.
25:56 Yes.
I have one question about the app.
Why is there no pictures of the directors like the actor awards but instead a poster.
Just wondering why.
I would love to see a review of the new A24 movie, Tuesday
I'm Still Here mentioned let's gooooooo
Should have commented this under Best Picture but I seriously feel like Juror No. 2 is being slept on. I know it sounds like a standard courtroom drama but it’s Clint Eastwood’s final movie, great cast, very positive early reactions
It can get Picture, screenplay, an actor or two, and maybe director
Even Richard Jewell got an Oscar nom lol
The way in which Napoleon was received leads me to believe David Scarpa's chances of getting a screenplay nomination for Gladiator II are very slim. On a similar note, do you guys think Challengers having come out this year helps or hinders Queer's awards chances?
My current predictions on The Awards Expert app (as of 8.6):
*Best Director:*
9. Ali Abbasi (The Apprentice)
8. Ridley Scott (Gladiator II)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness)
6. Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
4. Sean Baker (Anora)
3. Mohammed Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
2. Steve McQueen (Blitz)
1. Denis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two)
*Best Original Screenplay:*
8. Sean Wang (Didi)
7. Gabriel Sherman (The Apprentice)
6. Mohammed Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Fillipou (Kinds of Kindness)
4. M*ke Leigh (Hard Truths)
3. Jessie Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
2. Sean Baker (Anora)
1. Steve McQueen (Blitz)
*Best Adapted Screenplay:*
9. Rian Johnson (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery)
8. Meg LeFauve and Dave Holstein (Inside Out 2)
7. Peter Straughan (Conclave)
6. Todd Phillips & Scott Silver (Joker: Folie à Deux)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Justin Kuritzkes (Queer)
4. Malcolm Washington and Virgil Williams (The Piano Lesson)
3. RaMell Moss and Joselyn Barnes (The Nickel Boys)
2. John Spaihts and Denis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two)
1. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
*note that at this early a stage of the year I'm not predicting winners yet. Unlike many other predictors, my current number 1s are merely the movies I believe are likeliest to get a nom, NOT who I predict will win.
We need best actress predictions
Hoping Juror No.2 is a shock this year for awards
Is Room next door from Almodovar confirmed for 2024??
This is where I’m currently at (alphabetical order)
Best Director
1.Sean Baker-Anora
2.Steve McQueen-Blitz
3.Edward Berger-Conclave
4.Denis Villenueve-Dune: Part Two
5.Luca Guadagnino-Queer
Best Original Screenplay
1.Anora
2.The Apprentice
3.Blitz
4.Kinds of Kindness
5.A Real Pain
Best Adapted Screenplay
1.Conclave
2.Dune: Part Two
3.The Nickel Boys
4.Queer
5.Sing Sing
I'm sorry if I missed this, why Queer over Challengers for best picture?
I don't think you missed it, I've been wondering the same thing. No love for Challengers in any of the categories they discuss, even though I know they liked the movie
I think Anora and Sacred Fig are both very unlikely at DGA, that makes it hard to say they can win the Oscar here
Anora Can get DGA nom , lady bird , Moonlight, minari all got DGA noms
@@nediaelifra721 I would say those are relatively “Oscar-bait” indie films, where Anora seems to not be straying from Sean Baker’s style really
Having a Barry Jenkins movie THAT low in Adapted Screenplay is kinda crazy, especially since the studio pushed the film to a much more awards friendly release date.
Thought you were talking about Mufasa for a second and had to do a triple take lmfao
@flynnnolen1067 X2 😅
The Lion King movie?
Thoughts on whether the depiction of Russians in Anora will hurt its award chances?
There's nothing overly offensive or awful in the film's depiction of Russians, really. In fact, the Russian-speaking characters taking up most of the screen-time are actually said to be Armenian.
I still think that Dune is going the same path as Lord of the Rings and the Academy will not give them the big prizes until the third movie. Second movies on trilogy are weird in the fact that they technically don't have a beginning or an end, all around plot wise. I can see Villeneuve being nominated, in a sort of escalation plot, again towards the third movie plan.
Dune 1- Not Nominated
Dune 2- Nominated
Dune 3- Winner
I’ve been saying this since it was announced- Emmanuelle is never going to be a critics film and never going to be an awards contender. Predicting it is would be as absurd as predicting a James Bond movie to be competing in major categories. What James Bond is to action movies, Emmanuelle is to soft core porn…
Is it that graphic ?lol 😂
@@nediaelifra721 I’ve seen the first two Emmanuelle films - they have the loosest of stories and what little stories they do have only exist to get us to the locations where the sex scenes happen. They were the 50 Shades of Grey films of their era.
Dune 2 skews young adult. I don't think it plays as well with older Academy members. Sure, we said the same thing about EEAAO, but that was unique and narratively ambitious in a very different way than Dune 2.
I also felt like it was a high functioning YA movie when watching it
@@bradysmith4405 YA is really targeted at teenagers, I meant actual younger adult (18 to 35)
@@purekinema still. It has a lot of 20 somethings playing the most important roles which gives it the same sort of feel as a hunger games movie in a sense
Denis is running away with it 🔥
He didn’t even get nominated for Dune part 1. Why do people think he’s going to win?
@@Sharpe1502 Exactly. The last time a Blockbuster franchise film won best director was Return of the King. Jackson had already been nominated for an earlier entry, AND Dune has nowhere near the passion, critical acclaim, and wide cultural appeal of LotR.
He won’t win lol
Out of curiousity, why are we not predicting Challengers? Seems to be a weak year where a universally loved movie that came out early in the year and did surprisingly well at the box office with great lead performances by an auteur director isn’t a front runner?
Lots of contenders that might come out in awards season in the fall or the festivals. Guadagnino even has another movie out this year
Challengers isn't really the kind of movie that wows the Academy but I would be really happy if it gets some nods. I think it has a chance for cinematography, editing, sound, and score.
I do believe Challengers can have a big impact in the Awards Season if people keep talking about the movie and there aren't big contenders coming out of the fall festivals. Its path right now is rough but not impossible
I agree, Challengers was a damn good movie. I hope they nominate it for multiple awards
I think because it’s an early contender. But the bros are assuming that it’s going to be much more competitive in the second half of the year. They could be right or wrong
Lots of love for Here and Queer, but I think everyone is overlooking Get Used to It!
I don't want to create a debate, I want to see opinions, suggestions, things that justifice Dune Part Two might not be the same impact as much as Oppenheimer in the next season award.
In my words, I still see Dune Part Two will sweep EVERYTHING beacuse it is a strong contender in tech categories, including Best Director.
Now the reason why Villeneuve wasn't nominated for Part One, I could say it was because is just a half part of the story or the movie itself. Esealy, he could've won and Part Two is much bigger, more ambitious, more powerfull an that part comes from Denis Villeneuve. He deserves to win no matter what.
Maybe, It won't get Best Picture. There are cases movies wins a los of awards and not Picture, but in my opion, seeing the last two winnings were also Blockbusters (EEAAO and Oppenheimer), Dune Part Two should win Best Picture ✨️.
That's all I need to say 🙌🏻
I have 2 words
Tech!!!!! Justin!!!!!
You are so incredibly, embarrassingly off about Hit Man. It should be significantly higher in your Adapted Screenplay predictions, and it not being there might just be your bias against the film. Even if it’s the Are You There God? of this year, it means it’s going to come closer to a nomination than most other films on your list.
If you think I’m wrong, look up whether Out of Sight received a screenplay nomination.
Best Director
1. Sean Baker (Anora)
2. Luca Guadagnino (Queer)
3. Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
4. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
5. Denis Villeneuve (Dune II)
Original Screenplay
1. Sean Baker (Anora)
2. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
3. Steve McQueen (Blitz)
4. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
5. Justin Kuritzkes (Challengers)
Adapted Screenplay
1. Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
2. Justin Kuritzkes (Queer)
3. ReMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes (Nickel Boys)
4. Peter Straughan (Conclave)
5. Jon Spaihts & Denis Villeneuve (Dune II)
It seems that All We Imagine As Light doesn’t have much of a story, and it’s going to be a very niche art house release by Janus Films. Might as well have predicted Janet Planet last year as a female director‘s representing movie.
Janus brought Drive My Car to Oscar success which did not have much of a plot either. Both films have a story though.
I can’t parse what its story is from the perhaps limited amount I’ve heard, but it’s a vibes movie, I believe, while Drive My Car is a three hours-by-necessity busy narrative film. I didn’t know what its distributor was: it also has a Match Factory ident, which nowadays is part of Mubi.
Dune part one was just spectacle? Man I feel like dune part two was just spectacle
What about The Substance in Original Screenplay competition? they've won an award for screenplay in Cannes :)
Too weird for the Academy and honestly, the writing was the weakest aspect of the film (though still great). Really puzzling that they gave it screenplay instead of the directing award it so obviously deserved.
@@thefilmseeker I can't discuss the movie because I haven't seen it yet, btw, I can't wait to see it. Actually I mostly agree with you because I think The Seed of the Sacred Fig should have won the screenplay, at least it seemed so obvious:) But the jury was people just like us, so we can't say that something was given wrong because it's their choice after all. But I think it's not about the prizes, palms, or oscars, it's about the fact that we hear a lot of good reviews about these films...
The movie is ultraviolent and super gross. Most of the Academy won’t even watch it or finish watching it. Forget it for Oscars.
I might've commented this already on another video, I can't remember, but:
I saw The Collaboration on Broadway, and I'll riot if it gets nominated here. The script was trite, paint-by-numbers garbage. Like he read through the Wikipedia articles and banged the play out in one sitting. If ANYTHING it was an actor vehicle, but even then, the script was so flat and dumb, it actually detracted from the believability of the performances (even though they were otherwise very good). He'd have to REALLY overhaul it to make a difference, and remember this is the man most known for writing infamously brainless biopics.
You guys are way overestimating Sacred Fig imo.
Just came to shed light on everyone here. Predicting next year Oscars at the BEGINNING of June makes a lot of sense. Congratulations. You are almost as busy as me writing this comment in such a stuрid thing. I didn’t watch the video. I hope there is something like “ we are just being impatient here, there’s yet a ton of movies to come out” por something
What women could get in for Director? I know it’s never guaranteed that a woman gets in, but if the academy wants to surprise a woman in director, who would that be
Seems like Payal Kapadia or Marielle Heller
Denis is not getting nominated.
why arent u considering "Kinds of Kindness" at all? like i mean yeah its not gonna do as well as "poor things" or "the favorite" but like u absolutely rejected that movie, it's nowhere to be found in ur predictions and i think u should have in top 10 for screenplay and top 15 for picture
It's not shocking but I'm still disappointed that I Saw the TV Glow won't be considered for screenplay because it's just "too weird"
I don't think that's the reason... I think the themes have been dealt with before, it's not the most original of screenplays
@@daniellepereira7255 interesting. I agree the themes have been explored but it's done in a new and refreshing way to me.
Your hairstyles are becoming to look too similar. That was the main way I could tell the two of your apart but not I have to rely too much on the voice
U people think dune 2 is gonna perform like oppenheimer at the oscars, but its NOT.
It’s going to quite well. Bet on it
Of course it won’t but it’s safe to say that it will receive many nominations in several categories. And it will likely take many of the techs. It’s odd, some people overestimate its potential and other people underestimate it
Not with that attitude, it won’t.
Dune Part II can 100% win the same amount of Oscars as Oppenheimer and there’s lots of paths to get it to 7 wins. It’s not getting acting nominations, sure, but it’s probably winning more tech awards.
cinematography, sound, score, production, costume, visual effects, editing- here's SEVEN without any acting/director/screenplay wins
go figure
Villeneuve lol
Dune 2 will not be this year's Oppenheimer and Joker 2 will probably be shut out of major categories.
At this point, _Challengers_ by Justin Kuritzkes deserves to win Best Original Screenplay 2024 awards everywhere, while _Dune: Part Two_ by Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts deserves to win Best Adapted Screenplay 2024 awards everywhere.
delusional
@@ljbx8how is that delusional
@@ljbx8it’s honestly a good take and could actually happen
@@ClassicalMusic2002 it's delusional because neither of those films are close to being the best original/adapted screenplays of the year. total bollocks.
@@ljbx8 care to enlighten us on what the best original and adapted screenplays of the year are then? Using only movies you’ve seen, mind you, as that was their original point.
woop woop. garfield sweep
After finally seeing Dune 2, I’d be more comfortable guessing that Villeneuve doesn’t get nominated than that he wins.
where did you "finally" watch it? a phone?
I’m under the age of 21 and I have a Letterboxd account: “cHaLlaNgeRs SwEeP”
I still don't see Sing Sing or Conclave getting nominated with so many awards. Probably screenplay or acting, but I think you're depending too heavily on past nominees being in the project and not how the Academy will react. I have not word anything about Sing Sing from critics. If it does get nominated, cool! But I'm kinda cautious over it.
Sight unseen, Mohammad Rasoulof is looking strong to win director. He literary had to flee his country to deliver this film and the word of mouth has back the film
Except people didn’t actually love the movie
I don't know about everyone, but for me this year seems very weak...
Definitely seems weak on paper but don’t forget we haven’t seen a lot of these
Why are we not talking about Piece by Piece for adapted screenplay and best picture. I could easily see this being the first ever animated best picture winner, SAG ensemble winner, etc
I hope the Pablo Larrain's nomination never comes
I'm really scared about the prospect of Challengers getting nothing just like Saltburn didn't because it was too horny for the Academy (though Challengers is a better film). Guadagnino deserves recognition more than ever now, not many directors that can deliver greatness twice in a year
Kind of a crazy thing to say when Poor Things was #2 for picture, but i do agree it deserves more than it’s gonna get
@@Ro-pw6de yeah, but Poor Things has that production value and existential themes that gives it prestige, Challengers is just a tennis movie unfortunately lol
The way that Saltburn was better than every BP nominee besides Oppenheimer
@@RB-.- In Opposite Land, maybe.
@@rafaelcruz9973I wouldn't describe it as a "tennis movie" at all, I'd describe it as a "relationship dynamics movie"
Have you guys ever even read anything by William S. Burroughs? 😂 #Queer
Dune 2 is only getting in for technical categories. That's it
It's locked for a Picture nom
I can see it getting nominated for both director and picture, but I can't see it winning either.
@@ayayrawn2406agree
You’re high asf buddy
🤔
Hopefully steve mcqueen or luca win , also a wwii drama isnt like a sci fi sequel
Challengers should get in for script
Madame Web should get in for script.
It’s Oscars, not the MTV Movie Awards where it belongs
No sorry we have to give it to this random Iran dude because woke.
Could challengers get original screenplay??!? I think it’ll get a nomination.
First to comment
The Apprentice got MAGA’d haha Trump 2024
Ew
💯🇺🇸