We Tried to Predict the Market with This Equation ... And You Can Too
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 มิ.ย. 2024
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Clickbait: This has nothing to do with the wording in the thumbnail: "Get Direction Right".
A different way to view this is
1. For your preferred DTE the last term is a constant: e.g. for 45 days- Root 45/365 = 0.351, 39d = 0.327, 52d = o.377, not much variation.
2. Determine Expected Move (EM) as a percentage of the share price (SP).
= 100 x IV x 0.351
~ 35 x IV , with EM in units of % of current SP.
This can now be quickly approximated in one's head.
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Celia dullpher
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading.
How can someone know a professional broker when legit once are hard to find this days
She's recognized as 'Mrs Celia dullpher. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well diversified portfolio, that has experienced exponential growth. It is not about having money to invest in stocks,but also you need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
Thanks for continuing the great work tasty!! Really appreciate what you guys do regarding trading education and helping traders out. You are very much appreciated.
I was hoping to see more of a direction positive or negative
I missed it. Where is market direction addressed?
The crypto market has been unfavorable for months and I keep losing my money selling-off during dips, I'm very scared of holding right now, how do you guys still make so much….?
VENTURING into the trading world without the help of a profesionals, trading and expecting profit is like turning water into wine you would need a miracle...
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast. I will also suggest investors to get yourselves a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
Following you has been an amazing journey , you have shown me the best way to earn much better profits despite the bad economic situations, God bless you with more knowledge Alice devion...
Great to see you guys talking of Alice, Trading on your own can be very dangerous i can testify to that. This woman changed the game for me
Any info on how i can liaise with her, i'm new at this
This is genius, yea spy iv is not vix, but the idea of finding way much more volatility inspire a volatility trader
As new trader I am not sure the expected move is all that useful in general, but most useful for a play earnings. Often the move will be reaching the next support or resistance level SMA. ADX will indicate that strength. Probability projection helps if the intention is to put on a spread with range bias.
This isn't really an apples to apples comparison... The VIX is measuring an annualized volatility for the duration and is a percentage measure on it's own so its looking at a percent of a percent while stock price is looking at essentially whole dollar moves. If you want to compare apples to apples it should be SPY price with SPY ATM IV or even looking at tail IV
Given that “volatility” is another word for “move” and that “implied” means “expected”, it’s not quite a shocker that IV is what defines expected move, now, is it? 👀
Is the wording correct at 5:20 ? To double the expected move of the SPY in a month, its (presumably the SPY?) price would need to increase of decrease by 100%? That's not rare, its impossible?
They meant to double the price of SPY you’d need a 100% increase
God she speaks way to quick
Why are we womansplaining to Bat? Is this an audition or what.
That girl is super cute.
When you're used to looking at Tom and Bat all the time, she gonna look cute
don't make it weird
Extremely sharp too.
Extremely knowledgeable in statistics and option pricing.
If you’re a math nerd, I guess 🫦