Have to disagree with your river analysis. The 4.7m bet is a blocker/value bet as if he checks and Ruane shoves then it is very hard to fold 77, however given this is a non standard situation as they are so deep in the main, Ruane is just never shoving over his lead with anything worse than 77. So his lead gets value from flushes and maybe K10 and he is able to get away if Ruane jams as he is always beat.
If he's just always folding to the jam there then he's going to get heavily exploited. His range is so narrow by the river. I can't even think of a hand OTHER than 77 or JJ with that line. If he only has two hands in his range there and he's always folding one of them because "Ruane never shoves over his lead with anything worse than 77," then he's going to be heavily exploited.
if ruane has the nut flush/2nd nut flush, which is what hes supposed to have, obst is going to win the least amount possible from those hands by leading 4.7m. When obst leads that size he either has a boat or a weak hand thats folding to a shove anyway, therefore there would be no value in ruane shoving the nut flush, but if he has that hand he will call a shove anyway as 77 or 89 of clubs is literally the only hands obst could have that beat him.
Bet folding this is the only way to play this hand in this tournament at this stage because know one is going to rejam worse but he can't get value from worse if he bets bigger
lol, you dont usualy make this fold because you dont get into that situation,. even when you call here its not THAT huge of a mistake - in a online field that is - since even though you are bet a lot of the time, this situation just does not come often enough and online is still full of donks - see the youtube comments
I think If he has higher set so he would reraise again... so when you continue with this though he has only fds and straight draws which on the river just call... and only 98s raise all in...
Right result and that's it. His actual river play overall I don't understand. If he wants to value bet on the river, jamming is the play. He beats so many combinations of flushes and if he doesn't jam and gets called, he is leaving money on the table. As much as I don't think there is much air in Ruane's range, checking might be close...
I want to say this before the influx of comments that are for going to be incoming about the river in this hand. You can't say stuff in poker like "You can't call here because this is never a bluff". That isn't how poker works. The way you can beat the people that use this type of logic is by picking out hands to bluff with against these types of players. The river situation is also this, Obst had a boat or he doesnt, and Ruane either has a flush/trips/JJ/98cc. People get too carried away thinking about unlikely hands like JJ/98cc, and it worked out here. But against that range of hands if you lead river, it should be for all in as it is approximately 2/3 pot, which is a normal bet size. Don't start going into super sick deep analysis because its for millions of chips. He rivered a boat that is good here probably 90-95% of the time. He should jam his 13m.
Oh also, if you want my analysis to be like "Oh this is never a bluff from Obst because its too sick" or "Yeah just always fold here" or "Why even think about hands to call with?" then you are not going to like my analysis in my videos. I approach the game from a game theory based standpoint with exploitative elements. I don't just get in there and make assumptions you don't know are true and then guess my way out of it. It is way more fun/easy to use words like always and never, but its much stronger to pick a strategy that will eventually crush your opponents regardless of their actions. I am not here to give analysis that people love to hear, I am here to give correct analysis so that people can learn the right way to play the game.
Doug Polk But seriously can he ever be bluffing? You'd basically be bluffing a bluff only, because all value hands are calling. (Well except Obst with 77 lol)
Agree with everything. But as played, is Ruan going to jam river as a bluff even 10% of the time? He would not jam anything for value that does not been 7s full
On the same token, game theorists can be exploited on these coolers because those players want to avoid "game theory disasters." It's comforting to know you can jam with the nuts every time a game theorist bets for value on the river, and get called most of the time. I'm all for game theory, but there's a limit to everything. Also, note Obst's comment "you'd be the best actor of all time." To me, that suggests he had some sort of physical tell/read on him. Just playing devil's advocate.
Gotta give Obst some credit here. That was a plain read and not just ranges and probabilities clashing on each other (on which you did a perfectly fine analysis). One of the toughest and best laydowns I've seen. Ever.
Obst has a super narrow range after raising Flop and Checking Turn: He doesn't ever have JJ//QQ, so when he Check-Calls Turn, since he's not getting here with a single AcX with any "logical" line, and his bluffs that don't improve don't call such a small bet and neither do those that do(maybe AcXc), he's not repping anything than a boat that's filling up, all while Rouane has all sets, combo draws and some Ah Flush-Draws. When the river comes and he improves, he knows that his range, i should say his hand, is face up: his bet is just there to induce a call from a flush (and even an Ace high flush doesn't shove there when Obst range is so crystal clear); what do you think of this? I just don't see how his range could contain any other hand, given the action (he wouldn't be betting any Pair or 2Pair, and his size really doesn't allow the presence of any bluff in his river range).
Doug i have learned so much from your free content and improved my 1/2 cash game skills, appreciate everything including the free hand ranges per seats.
This is why Doug is primarily a cash game genius. All-in in that spot all day err day. Some players can make such big lay downs because they go with a hard read. Some of the best tournament players have that ability and are more right than they are wrong. This may be why MTT players make "bad" cash game players and vice versa. The cash game player is interested in how that hand plays in a simul but the MTT player is more concerned with that hand in a vacuum plus their reads on the player
I hope I never make this lay down. Obst was a 94% favourite to win this hand vs the BTN's UTG calling range. With Ruane only making straight flushes ~4.5% of the time, we just can't possibly be +EV folding a full house here. Yeah, it was a sick read, but we can't be results oriented, IMO. Lucky fold, but a bad play.
Trane Francks that all-in shove, after the previous streets, meant only one of two things. Straight Flush or bluff. Clear as day. Not to say someone might not be ballsy enough to cold bluff this hand... But in context it didn't make nearly as much sense as him actually having the SF. Nobody with an ounce of intelligence is shoving in his position there with just a flush, or even ace-high flush on a paired board with that play on the flop SCREAMING "I've got a set". I think I'd almost rather fold to what either has to be the better hand or simply the most brilliant bluff in poker history.
Doug I love your analyses. From my standpoint think the river bet was perfect. I dont know if Obst planned the bet because if it was so, he is a genius. Jamming the river doesnt make that much sense because how many hands would call down the river to give you value? Even the nut flush would fold in this situation. Obst's fullhouse is obviously the weakest full house. If you check, what would you do if Ruane went all in. I mean this is the Main Event, its not a regular cash game. He was one of the chip leaders, he didnt wanna lose 80% of his chips in one play. For the bigger bet, again, if you bet too big and your opponent went all in, then you put yourself in a position that you would have to call and gamble because the pot was too big. In a cash game though, the decisions might have been different
Binh Phan but he has an easy shove by the river with the spr. the nut flush if it gets to that stage has a tough decision if they are going to fold. jj and qq surly don't flat the flop letting 77 get away on a bad turn or letting draws realise their equity so you don't shove because of the one real combo of hands that have you beat...
i really like you doug, but I disagree, I think this river bet is amazing because obst is a good enough player to identify when someone is on a flush draw, when he does that weird river blocker bet, he is trying to get a flush to call him, when ruane jams, he knows he is beat because, he knows he wouldn't bluff in that spot with a flush, so ruane either a) has a straight flush, cuz nut flushes either fold or call river, or B) he actually did have poket jacks, or any other fullhouse, which beats him. bottom fullhouse is just bluff catching at this point. obst isn't the type of person to jam the river without the nuts, so is he really check folding? that's why its a perfect blocker bet, because it allows him to make an easier decision. in my opinion ofcourse. plus he still has 11 million behind. he is really only beating bluffs, and if the percentage of him bluffing is 5 percent this deep in the main event, than that's how often you win the pot, 5% of the time.
skrufy11 he isn't block betting the river he's identified correctly his opponent has a flush and is betting a size that a flush might call, problem is his hand is face up as 77 by his river lead so ruane is never jamming a flush that isn't the nuts and if ruane is not bluffing there are no value shoves that bottom full house can beat
I agree..The Tc discarded a significant portion of hands which Ruane would semi-bluff raise on the flop. So the river-bet was the only way to get out.... Whitout staking off. I loved the way Obst played this hand.
i agree. i give obst big time credit here. although he had bottom full house he gave himself a chance to survive the tournament. the bet size was good enough to get some type of read on the river to the strength of opponents hand.
Like you Doug I initially thought Obst's river lead was very odd but in hindsight I think it's an absolutely fantastic play that very few players would be able to think of. Obst has the absolute worst full house in this spot, but by leading out for just over a third of Ruane's remaining stack Ruane is only ever shoving better hands, any flush would just call in this spot. If Obst checks the river, Ruane jams and Obst is practically out, which is certainly what I would have done. Obst's bet however allows him to fold, and although his stack is massively crippled 11million still gives him a great chance of making the final table.
I think the river bet is because most of Ruane's holdings are flushes. All of those flushes check back to showdown, and given the action might even fold to a jam. Everyone is on a narrow range and really doesn't feel like there's any bluffing happening given the action, so the board pairing is actually a legit scare card for flushes, and a very very good disciplined player may find a fold to a shove here.
I like your analysis until the end. I see what you're saying as far as l, if your boat loses to a straight flush then it's just not your day. I think you're bringing a cash game strategy to tournament play. I've heard other pros that I respect say, chips lost are more important than chips gained. I respect your tourney game, but in this instance he made a value bet when he thought he could beat his straight or flush w/ a boat. Then after thinking about it, realized he's beat. If he checks then he's doing that to trap & he may have called an all in at that point. Then he's out, so in a way that small bet let him fold. IMO that wasn't his intention when he leads, but once his opponent jams he can't be bluffing. His jam is screaming your boat is no good. Great play by both players
Agree with your analysis. Thing is cash game players don't have as much value for tournament life as MTT players do. Partly the reason Greg Merson was able to win ME from 5bb. If a top cash game player busts the ME he just he walks into the highstakes room and is a favorite to win back his buy in and a lot more. But when a top MTT players busts a tournament like the ME, he has to wait weeks to get into another with similar value and months to years before another super deep run on the average.
You said yourself how polarized Obst is on the turn to basically having sets or bluffs and Ruane basically has flushes, bluffs, JJ & rarely QQ. So when board pairs river isn't Ruane even going to check back nut flush? because Obst isn't calling with less than a boat so he's basically turning nut flush in to a bluff. So if Obst jams this river that smashes his range and is bad for Ruane's cant he safely fold his flushes and call with his boats? Where as a small bet gets value from flushes Ruane would otherwise fold to a jam?
This is the one aspect of GTO I have a hard time with. I absolutely agree that we need to have a balanced range of calls in a variety of situations. But i feel like suggesting that because he folded this particular hand this particular time that it’s going to lead to an overall unbalanced and exploitable range. I don’t know how long they had been at the table together and their history, but if Obst had put together enough info about his villain that every part of his being is telling him that villain is just never jamming here at this stage of a tournament of that caliber without JJ or a straight flush, does that not still make it the correct play. It seems similar to the story on upswing poker that Ryan was telling where Doug (I think) was playing a bot, there was four to a straight on the board and one blank. The boy had a K which gave him Broadway (the absolute nuts in that situation) and the bot folded to a jam. When Doug brought it to the attention of the people who created the bot, and said he thought something was wrong with it because it just folded the nuts, the guy told him “no. In order for it to play legit GTO it is required to even the nuts a certain percentage of the time in order to have a truly balanced range”
I actually think Obst's bet fold on the river is a valid decision to make. Assuming Ruane never gets to the river with bluffs (which is likely give he raised the flop 4x way and peeled a 3bet, imo a hand like KTs T9s that could potentially be bluffs aren't in his range- they flat on the flop) then Ruane just has a flush extremely frequently in this spot. Given the board pairs and Obst can have full houses in his range, I think Ruane would sigh call with any flush and would not shove as thinly as the ace high flush. He also isn't going to turn a flush into a bluff. Given his turn size I think that hands like jj and qq could potentially be in Ruane's range, although checking back would probably be more standard. Seeing as he can never have bluffs in this spot and Ruane cannot have worse value hands I think it makes sense for Obst to fold, even if you can argue he never has a bet call range here.
These caliber players always have big draws in their raising range if they don't flat with all their range with their flop. You can't make assumption he won't raise k10c on flop as it's highly unlikely...
think at the end, Ruan had a very obvious live tell, (less expeience of playing live tournament). he annouced tall in directly to the dealer. classic strong sign.
Do you think bet sizing on turn is saying saying like 'I could be in a high variance spot, and my entire range is jamming you on the river here almost no matter what'? I.E., his value range gets strong because the play supports all bluffs too? Just a thought. Jame.
I disagree with your analysis at the end. I feel like his bet was to get value from a flush. and it allows him to just food to a jam. why would you jam knowing the only hands that are probably calling are better boats and the straight flush. maybe a nut flush hero call. and the way the hand was played call the all in raise your obit going to beat a crazy bluff
How on earth does he place him on the straight flush rather than the Ace high flush (Ace-King of Clubs, as an example)? Would Ace-King of Clubs play differently somehow?
Really appreciate the way you explain the reasoning behind placing of the bets, and bet size. I think at higher stakes bet sizing seems to be the key to surviving, getting paid off; and not going broke. You vids are thought provoking to say the least, and I am sure I am not the only one, but thanks for taking the time out to explain your take on what is happening. If you want to play with the best, you got to understand how and what they are thinking. Once again, thanks; please keep it up it is appreciated.
Yess 😃 I don't wanna take too much credit to myself, but I was one of the first ones suggesting here Doug should analyze this hand yesterday 😏 Anyway, great job, as usual ! If you read this Doug, could you comment Wil Kassouf, and generally big table talkers, what's your opinion on them and what do you think they contribute to the game of poker, both to the viewers and players on the table ?
Doug Polk Glad to inspire you man, will try to do that in the future as well ! And I'm also very glad my monopoly on your replies here on TH-cam continues ☺ PS MAKE A SHOW IN WHICH YOU ANALYZE SOME OF YOUR VIEWERS HANDS (hey Adrian Fenixx occasionally does that live on Twitch, how about you do it here at least once a month so some of your viewers have permanent memory of it ☺), if you still plan to add something new to your TH-cam channel.
Dougy dougg! You're the man! I really like your videos, and have learned a ton from watching them, so thank you! For this hand, I think you might be undervaluing the magnitude of the situation. This is Day 7 of the ME, and for most of these guys its the most money they'll ever play for by a mile. They don't play high rollers, or 10ks like you do. So i don't think that getting away from 77 in a live tournament like this would be that impossible. Bc that Rouse guy is never bluffing. Ever. In a billion years. And I don't think Obst has to 'balance his range' here or have too many calls here w 77 b/c its a live tourney, and you don't need to balance your range so perfectly. There are other ways to take advantage. At leas that's what your videos have taught me :-) . Just my thought keep pumping out the dope content!
Doug, If it was a heads up pot, your reason for shoving or calling on the river from Obst would have been justified. As there was heavy action on the 4 handed flop including 2-bet raise and 3 -bet calling and shoving the 2-bet on the river from Ruane , there are only 2 hands remained in his range(1 or 2 Jack pairs and straight flush). This is an incredible lay down from Obst.
Obst's tiny river bet is a sick, next level play. With a bet this small, Ruane almost certainly has to pay off with any flush. With gameplay as it was, Ruane will have primarilly nut flushes (all nut flushes are actually possible at this point) and occasionally something like K8, 5-4, 6-5, 6-4. Now while, Ruane will be forced to pay off with those hands, he can NEVER raise with them. Therefore, when Ruane shoves he is polarized to something stronger than bottom boat or a bluff, and there are a few hands better than 7s full in Ruane's range. K9s and 98s are perfectly strong candidates to take this line. AKs is three-betting a large chunk of the time but not all the time. What makes this fold so impressive to me, is that Ruane, essentially had no boats in his range. QQ and JJ are very likely three-bets pre-flop. JJ can flat pre some of the time and be okay, but flatting such a small raise with QQ would be very bad. There are a few tens Ruane could have, but they never contain a Q or a J, and they would usually contain the ten of clubs, which as we saw, is not possible. He might have gotten aggressive with AT or KT, but we're not losing to those hands, and Ruane is never raising the river with them. The river bet is what allowed Obst to stay in the tournament. He is very unlikely to fold to a river shove when checked to, and he is losing out on getting any value from the hands which he might be able to get value from. I think you're projecting too much of your own thought process onto Obst when dissecting this hand, Doug. You should be able to watch this great play and learn something from it, rather than just saying his play doesn't conform to your standards of optimal play, and therefore judging it harshly.
there’s a difference between analyzing what a player is thinking and projecting one’s thought process on a player in order to critique it Doug is always doing the latter unfortunately
Hey Doug, as always thanks for the video, first time I've seen a Full House lose in WSOP (that is, losing on showdown). I have a general question though because I hear you talk about it a lot in your videos and I've been trying to find out more about it on the internet but haven't really gotten a clear understanding about it. I am an amateur poker player but I've always liked it, and I'm very good at math and odds on the fly. Can you explain (or if you've already made a video explaining it, link the video) what the subtle differences are between the possible hands you can have in the various positions around a poker table, Dealer chip, Small Blind, Big Blind; and also how it effects post flop betting/odds? I'd greatly appreciate it, and keep up the great videos :).
I actually think the river blocker bet is pretty reasonable. I think Obst knows that if the checks te river, he's gonna get shoved on 100%, and he does actually think about him having a straight flush, even before he actually calls it out. So the only way to 100% know that he's beat is to put in a blocker bet that is gonna get called by some worse hands like nut flushes, and only get shoved on by Jacks, Queens (qq not likely) and of course the straight flush. And he jams, so at that point he knows he's 100% beat, and leaves himself 11M behind to still be alive, otherwise he knows he'll have to c/c river all in and sometimes actually be out of the tournament.
Doug I disagree with what you said about the river bet from obst. remember although he filled up, he still has the worst full house on the board. while QQ is unlikely to be a part of Ruane's range given the preflop action, JJ or a big draw to the nut flush or straight flush are definitely hands in Ruane's range given the flop action and the turn lead. on the river obst filled up, but rather than move all in for value, he opted to take the safer route in a tourney this big; he went for a small value bet leaving him with 11 million behind. This bet accomplishes 2 things: 1) he gets value from all of Ruane's flushes. 2) he leaves himself room to fold against raises that rep bigger boats namely jacks full, the unlikely queens full or in this case, the absolute coconuts. **note** while this play opens the opportunity for bluffs to attempt to steal the pot- the way the action went down it was highly unlikely Ruane was bluffing here. IF obst moved all in, i don't think flushes would pay- the nut flush might, but other flushes are going to muck- only better hands would call. IF obst checks two things could happen:1) small flushes will check back and he will lose value, nut flush might go for a bet. 2) bigger boats or the nuts are moving all in, but then obst will be in the dark without any info to go on, and will likely be forced to call it off. in conclusion, obst's river lead was the optimal play given the action that lead to that point, Ruane's raise shove gave him enough info to correctly lay down 7s full. the real curious question is: if he made quad 7s on the river instead of 7s full..would he have made the same bet and then subsequent fold? he might've i think since he verbally put Ruane on the straight flush. what do you think?
Whilst I'm totally down with the GTO-style analysis, I think there is room for a "soul read" in this spot given the very specific action and board run-out. Ruane rarely has QQ given preflop action, and if he had JJ he would be 4betting flop at least some percentage of the time given that Obst never has QQ either. Obst's 3bet on the flop screams set or QJ and Ruane's facial reaction @7:26 confirms that his thoughts are the same. He may have a hint of paranoia about being up against a bigger FD, but that possibility is slim if not null (perhaps only KcQc for top pair and 2nd NFD). When Ruane bets 3.75m on the turn he gives odds for Obst to boat up. Why invite him in? Would he not barrel larger with a bluff or A/K high flush to polarize his range? And what tens does Ruane have on the flop? All his tens are either 1 pair hands, straight draws or flushdraws- the first two hand types don't really get to the turn in this way if ever and the Tc is invalidated by it coming on the turn. Conclusion: Ruane never (or very rarely) has boats by the river. Of course, with Obst having bottom boat, this is irrelevant in terms of the final call decision on the river, but it is necessary for the specific SF read. And I just don't see what bluffs he has on the river either. If he had QJ that he turned into a bluff to try and fold out small boats or flushes then that would be a whole new level of sickness. Why do that at this stage in the ME when villain covers your stack? Honestly, what worse hands does Ruane ever have when he shoves the river? And if we can't list any, front shoving sevens full on the river is turning the hand into a bluff! And I simply can't follow the logic of "we must call river shove with hands of strength x" when we can't list a single worse hand Ruane might have. Of course it is always easy when you see the cards in the replay. And in Obst's shoes I would be stacking off sevens full with a heavy heart and a line similar to what you suggest. But I think Obst knew exactly what he was doing with the river block bet and I don't think he deserves criticism for making one of the sickest folds of all time.
As ever great GTO analysis. I wonder if Obst (having watched this guy play) may have picked up something. After all he does say "I think you have a straight flush, or you could be the best actor of all- time". My question is if you feel you have a solid live read how much do you deviate from the GTO play? (which as you said is shoving the river).
I think the idea behind the turn bet is that Ruane is trying to shrink his own stack size so that it's an easier call for his opponent on the river. I think Ruane feels that Obst is on a strong range given the flop action - hands like 77, QJ, maybe KQclubs, maybe even AQclubs - because there just aren't a ton of bluffs on the flop with Ruane holding blockers, and not a lot of middle value hands that would take that line. I think Ruane wants to give Obst good enough odds to try to boat up and also make the river bet comparably smaller to the relative size of the pot. I like it.
Doug, you said QJ is a good bluff spot by river by obst. I kinda disagree, because both players don't really have QQ/JJ or rarely have it, does the card removal effect really make it a very good +EV bluff from Obst? If Obst can't have much bluffs then does it make it much better he just check on the river with his entire range?
I think that it is not likely for anybody to have plaed preflop with QQ or JJ this way. That said, this hand was played postflop is such a ununsual way, that that could easily mean that this is one of the very few times somebody DID slowplay QQ or JJ pre. Because while yeah, you don't think he has QQ or JJ very often, but what DOES he have?
15:57 "You do have to have some calls here." That's right from a GTO perspective but if your opponent is holding the nuts 100% of the time it's simply unrelevant for the spot.
Love your videos, but I have to disagree with you somewhat. I think it's paramount that when the straight flush got there, Ruane must bet for value. I think Obst played his hand really face up. The bet size it's perfect that no way he can fold the set or QJ. I'm still debating on your comment on shoving the river when Obst boat up. I think check calling might be better? I don't know. What do you think?
I think the last part Obst made a small bet so Ruane would find it hard to fold with the nut flush because of the size of the pot. But Ruane probably put Obst on a nut flush draw or a set hence the size of the bet on the turn. Then When the river came it didn't matter what hand Obst was trying to make (full house or Boat) as he would of made either. So when he went all in it was strong and thought he'd probably get called considering the size of the pot.
incredible lay down, Doug, could you maybe explain how Obst could have known his opponent had a straight flush. And how did he know it on the river and not on the turn?
@doug, please review the Q5dd hand from Robl against Kirk from super high roller cg! Would also like to hear your opinion on this format and if you plan on playing it again anytime soon :)
Conceptually, this is a satisfactory analysis and the laydown is stunning. The fact Obst was only holding the worst full house and very deep stacked would have been a factor for me. It's not like Obst was holding a Queens full or even tens full, individually there are not that many combo's that beat him but collectively there are quite a few, and not unreasonably so on further consideration. Also, Obsts comment that Ruan has the joint is very telling though. He doesn't say "you have a boat here" which struck me as an insight on the laydown. Obst must have has a dialed in read on Ruan is the only thing I can figure it for.
Yeah I'm pretty on board with the turn sizing even with whatever bluffs he decides to put in his range (provided that he also follows thru with a river bluff jamm, not just his value).
and that's the key question Obst had to ask himself. Would Ruane understand with his turn sizing that he would have to jam over the top with his bluffs as well
Hey Doug, i see you take a somewhat gto approach to the river by saying that obst has to have some calls here since if he isn't calling with his boats he's effectively folding 100% of his range, however, I think that exploitatively ruane literally never has a bluff here and that therefore a fold might be correct. thoughts?
It is hard to answer comments like this, because it goes in a loop. We could say Obst should always fold because Ruane will never bluff. But then Ruane should always bluff because Obst will never call. But if Ruane should always bluff then Obst should always call. I prefer to not just stare my opponent down and play RPS for millions of dollars, and use a balanced strategy.
But neither of these 2 players are amateurs. James Obst is an online pro with multiple SCOOP titles. Michael Ruane have been around for years, and have been living off poker for a very long time.
i think it was a weird blocking bet with a boat...also why you like the smaller bet??with the straight flush specially its good...but with everu other possible flush you give your opponent direct odds to call....so i mean its logic but surely not balanced.....
The way I see this hand makes a lot of sense because we can see their holdings but this is definitely what these guys were thinking IMO. Flop: top pair makes a small continuation bet to get value, nut flush draw then reraises to almost potsize to try to take the pot down on the spot or get lucky on later street, bottom set(SB) pops it up with a 3bet showing real strength on a scary board representing either 2 pair or 77 .. bb and top pair has an easy fold and nut flush draw has an easy call given the implied odds and how much chips he's already put in. Honestly after the flop, they pretty much played their hands faced up imo. now you might say it is easy for us to say this because we can see their exact holdings you'll have to keep in mind that these two are pros and are really deeeeep in this tournament. Reason I say they played it face up is because given the turn action followed by a jam on the river. the only hands he would do that on a paired board is with the top boat/str8flush/stone cold bluff but given the table action and considering how deep they are in the tournament it's just very unlikely in his range. Now with that said I would much rather stay longer in the tournament with avg/above avg stack behind than to go home with a great bad beat story..
Great lay down. Great analysis on qq and jj being possibillities. Any solid+ player knows in that situation if the other player is also solid+ then only a bluff or better hand than the bottom full house in this specific situation. Poker os just that. Each hand played specifically on its own merits.
The logic for smaller bet sizing (30%pot etc)is that they can get folds for cheaper when deep in a tournament where tournament life is a factor, and they balance it with strong hands too. I don't really understand how you couldn't easily recognise that, flawed or not-flawed as it may be.
He said all in to the dealer and looks super confident. NOT like the other recent straight flush though where he made the speech about giving X time then he'd call the clock. Live poker involves reads not just math/GTO . Props to Obst
Obst makes a small bet on the river because he knows Ruanne’s raise-call on the flop could be a combo draw and that he could have a SF on the turn. When the board pairs on the river, Obst has to bet because he has a boat, but also knows that he must fold to a reraise. If he checks the river and Ruanne goes all-in, Obst doesn’t know if his FH is good and he’ll be forced to make a crying call. The act of Ruanne reraising gives Obst the info he needs to fold. Obst could also be worried about QQ or JJ and folding 77 is “easier” than folding the others. But I can tell you, it would be impossible for me to fold. I’m nowhere close to good enough.
LIke Doug said calling is better. It allows Pons to also call or do something crazy and reraise/jam pushing the draw out of the pot. Obst could then donkjam the turn to a blank or checkcall turn.
Marvin Nash I think it would be the same spot. Like does jj qq just flat and let 77 get off the hook or let all the flush draws realise their equity? if it's set vs set on that flop it's going in on the flop so surly quad 7s is the same hand
I think in that case Obst bet calls/check calls(jams) every time otr. Just one combo beats him. People get coolerd in poker, everyone does. Its just your time to go, never mind its last 3 tables in the main event.
same situationtion you fish except most of the fishy replies saying obst never bluffing so you gotta fold would turn into, sometimes its your time to go. :D
if you think about that small river bet it seems pretty genius you get value from the nut flush because no flush will ever raise you beside the str8 flush and you can think what hands will ever raise here only bigger boats or str8 flush or bluff but does he ever has a bluff here not really so i say if you look it datway the bet is genius and i think it made him safe his chips here with this awsome fold. Not saying anyone else could do this here but this bet is just awsome and if he checks here he get either no value or has to call the all in so i think this river bet is not like you said the worst play in this hand its the best and it is one of the best bets i saw last year.
I think the river bet by Obst is the best play he had. All in he’s eliminated. If he checks, Ruane controls the sizing and he gets no info because it’s either bluff or the nuts. It was a feeler bet because he was trying to see if his turn read on the straight flush was correct. There’s nothing wrong with the play on this hand IMO, other than Ruane’s turn bet… maybe. If he had just checked, Obst would’ve had less information… possibly. But he may have also felt like he was getting trapped. There was far more body language “reading” going on in this hand than betting indicators IMO. Just my take.
Good analysis. I wonder if the concept of playing gto is really applicable to these once in a lifetime deep in the wsop, tournament situations. It is not like your daily 5-10 cash game played against the same regulars. You may not need to protect your value bets with occasional bluffs as though you will be doing this 200 times and you don't want to be exploited. It could be that you simply should not have a $10 Million chip bluff into a 25 million chip pot with opponent showing heavy strength and which sometimes causes you to bust out. Now certainly that can cost you some chips when you have the straight flush, and I think this is how the boat was able to fold. But ICM considerations mean that bluffing off all your chips is far far worse than failing to gain some value that you might have gotten.
detached from GTO play I think obst bet the river like he did to get a crying call from an A or K high flush which is what he put Ruane on with the line Ruane took. Also, if Obst does jam the river, what worse hand can call him?
is this the final hand in Casino Royale? my lord
Haha nice one.
No my child
Doug Polk 11:58: "I'll save the spoiler alert for the river."
Doug Polk's Brain: Let's title the video FOLDING a FULL HOUSE......... \o/
Exactly!
He himself said the top poker players are not often too smart. 😂
Have to disagree with your river analysis. The 4.7m bet is a blocker/value bet as if he checks and Ruane shoves then it is very hard to fold 77, however given this is a non standard situation as they are so deep in the main, Ruane is just never shoving over his lead with anything worse than 77. So his lead gets value from flushes and maybe K10 and he is able to get away if Ruane jams as he is always beat.
Finally someone who speaks sense. 100% agree with this
I guess you haven't read his own comment in this video.
just thought the same thing. Loved the river bet by Obst
If he's just always folding to the jam there then he's going to get heavily exploited. His range is so narrow by the river. I can't even think of a hand OTHER than 77 or JJ with that line. If he only has two hands in his range there and he's always folding one of them because "Ruane never shoves over his lead with anything worse than 77," then he's going to be heavily exploited.
if ruane has the nut flush/2nd nut flush, which is what hes supposed to have, obst is going to win the least amount possible from those hands by leading 4.7m. When obst leads that size he either has a boat or a weak hand thats folding to a shove anyway, therefore there would be no value in ruane shoving the nut flush, but if he has that hand he will call a shove anyway as 77 or 89 of clubs is literally the only hands obst could have that beat him.
Inb4 the online pros of youtube claim that it was a standard fold and they do that all the time in their weekly $50 buy-ins.
Bet folding this is the only way to play this hand in this tournament at this stage because know one is going to rejam worse but he can't get value from worse if he bets bigger
weekly $50 insult? Are u Blezenick?
lmao adamo
And that's coming from Jesus...
lol, you dont usualy make this fold because you dont get into that situation,. even when you call here its not THAT huge of a mistake - in a online field that is - since even though you are bet a lot of the time, this situation just does not come often enough and online is still full of donks - see the youtube comments
Don't understand how you put someone on a Straight flush right there. Best lay down i've ever seen.
I think If he has higher set so he would reraise again... so when you continue with this though he has only fds and straight draws which on the river just call... and only 98s raise all in...
also Ruane should tank like 5 mins and shove... it would be better play
Honestly the only 2 draws he can realistically have on flop were 98 and ak so not that insane
He prolly also put ruane at Js so yea
Right result and that's it. His actual river play overall I don't understand. If he wants to value bet on the river, jamming is the play. He beats so many combinations of flushes and if he doesn't jam and gets called, he is leaving money on the table.
As much as I don't think there is much air in Ruane's range, checking might be close...
I want to say this before the influx of comments that are for going to be incoming about the river in this hand.
You can't say stuff in poker like "You can't call here because this is never a bluff". That isn't how poker works. The way you can beat the people that use this type of logic is by picking out hands to bluff with against these types of players.
The river situation is also this, Obst had a boat or he doesnt, and Ruane either has a flush/trips/JJ/98cc. People get too carried away thinking about unlikely hands like JJ/98cc, and it worked out here. But against that range of hands if you lead river, it should be for all in as it is approximately 2/3 pot, which is a normal bet size.
Don't start going into super sick deep analysis because its for millions of chips. He rivered a boat that is good here probably 90-95% of the time. He should jam his 13m.
Oh also, if you want my analysis to be like "Oh this is never a bluff from Obst because its too sick" or "Yeah just always fold here" or "Why even think about hands to call with?" then you are not going to like my analysis in my videos. I approach the game from a game theory based standpoint with exploitative elements. I don't just get in there and make assumptions you don't know are true and then guess my way out of it.
It is way more fun/easy to use words like always and never, but its much stronger to pick a strategy that will eventually crush your opponents regardless of their actions. I am not here to give analysis that people love to hear, I am here to give correct analysis so that people can learn the right way to play the game.
Doug Polk But seriously can he ever be bluffing? You'd basically be bluffing a bluff only, because all value hands are calling. (Well except Obst with 77 lol)
Agree with everything. But as played, is Ruan going to jam river as a bluff even 10% of the time? He would not jam anything for value that does not been 7s full
beat
On the same token, game theorists can be exploited on these coolers because those players want to avoid "game theory disasters." It's comforting to know you can jam with the nuts every time a game theorist bets for value on the river, and get called most of the time. I'm all for game theory, but there's a limit to everything. Also, note Obst's comment "you'd be the best actor of all time." To me, that suggests he had some sort of physical tell/read on him. Just playing devil's advocate.
Gotta give Obst some credit here. That was a plain read and not just ranges and probabilities clashing on each other (on which you did a perfectly fine analysis). One of the toughest and best laydowns I've seen. Ever.
the read is more impressive than the lay down
Obst has a super narrow range after raising Flop and Checking Turn: He doesn't ever have JJ//QQ, so when he Check-Calls Turn, since he's not getting here with a single AcX with any "logical" line, and his bluffs that don't improve don't call such a small bet and neither do those that do(maybe AcXc), he's not repping anything than a boat that's filling up, all while Rouane has all sets, combo draws and some Ah Flush-Draws. When the river comes and he improves, he knows that his range, i should say his hand, is face up: his bet is just there to induce a call from a flush (and even an Ace high flush doesn't shove there when Obst range is so crystal clear); what do you think of this? I just don't see how his range could contain any other hand, given the action (he wouldn't be betting any Pair or 2Pair, and his size really doesn't allow the presence of any bluff in his river range).
Great video. I'm not gonna lie I didn't really like you at first but you're videos and stream have grown on me. keep it up.
Thanks dude, glad I could put out good content people can enjoy.
Same here, enjoying your videos :)
Same here.
same
Doug i have learned so much from your free content and improved my 1/2 cash game skills, appreciate everything including the free hand ranges per seats.
This is why Doug is primarily a cash game genius. All-in in that spot all day err day. Some players can make such big lay downs because they go with a hard read. Some of the best tournament players have that ability and are more right than they are wrong. This may be why MTT players make "bad" cash game players and vice versa. The cash game player is interested in how that hand plays in a simul but the MTT player is more concerned with that hand in a vacuum plus their reads on the player
zimgol not in the vacuum then if they are considering table factors
all about the soul reads and the gut feels amirite
zimgol i agree with this. long term folding here is bad but he may have had a strong read.
actually a great comment
hey Doug, could you share your opinion on Will Kassouf ?
Sick lay down. I don't think I could do that.
1 day 608, 1 day
I hope I never make this lay down. Obst was a 94% favourite to win this hand vs the BTN's UTG calling range. With Ruane only making straight flushes ~4.5% of the time, we just can't possibly be +EV folding a full house here. Yeah, it was a sick read, but we can't be results oriented, IMO. Lucky fold, but a bad play.
Trane Francks that all-in shove, after the previous streets, meant only one of two things. Straight Flush or bluff. Clear as day.
Not to say someone might not be ballsy enough to cold bluff this hand... But in context it didn't make nearly as much sense as him actually having the SF. Nobody with an ounce of intelligence is shoving in his position there with just a flush, or even ace-high flush on a paired board with that play on the flop SCREAMING "I've got a set".
I think I'd almost rather fold to what either has to be the better hand or simply the most brilliant bluff in poker history.
It's 50/50. Either he has him beat or he doesn't.
12:17 looked like a tell to me which is interesting because he comments about him having the nuts or being a great actor
Doug I love your analyses. From my standpoint think the river bet was perfect. I dont know if Obst planned the bet because if it was so, he is a genius. Jamming the river doesnt make that much sense because how many hands would call down the river to give you value? Even the nut flush would fold in this situation. Obst's fullhouse is obviously the weakest full house. If you check, what would you do if Ruane went all in. I mean this is the Main Event, its not a regular cash game. He was one of the chip leaders, he didnt wanna lose 80% of his chips in one play. For the bigger bet, again, if you bet too big and your opponent went all in, then you put yourself in a position that you would have to call and gamble because the pot was too big. In a cash game though, the decisions might have been different
Binh Phan but he has an easy shove by the river with the spr. the nut flush if it gets to that stage has a tough decision if they are going to fold. jj and qq surly don't flat the flop letting 77 get away on a bad turn or letting draws realise their equity so you don't shove because of the one real combo of hands that have you beat...
>>Even the nut flush would fold in this situation.
Are you high?
i really like you doug, but I disagree, I think this river bet is amazing because obst is a good enough player to identify when someone is on a flush draw, when he does that weird river blocker bet, he is trying to get a flush to call him, when ruane jams, he knows he is beat because, he knows he wouldn't bluff in that spot with a flush, so ruane either a) has a straight flush, cuz nut flushes either fold or call river, or B) he actually did have poket jacks, or any other fullhouse, which beats him. bottom fullhouse is just bluff catching at this point. obst isn't the type of person to jam the river without the nuts, so is he really check folding? that's why its a perfect blocker bet, because it allows him to make an easier decision. in my opinion ofcourse. plus he still has 11 million behind. he is really only beating bluffs, and if the percentage of him bluffing is 5 percent this deep in the main event, than that's how often you win the pot, 5% of the time.
skrufy11 he isn't block betting the river he's identified correctly his opponent has a flush and is betting a size that a flush might call, problem is his hand is face up as 77 by his river lead so ruane is never jamming a flush that isn't the nuts and if ruane is not bluffing there are no value shoves that bottom full house can beat
I agree..The Tc discarded a significant portion of hands which Ruane would semi-bluff raise on the flop. So the river-bet was the only way to get out.... Whitout staking off. I loved the way Obst played this hand.
i agree. i give obst big time credit here. although he had bottom full house he gave himself a chance to survive the tournament. the bet size was good enough to get some type of read on the river to the strength of opponents hand.
but say someone does that on the river, aren't they announcing their intentions to fold to a jam
Like you Doug I initially thought Obst's river lead was very odd but in hindsight I think it's an absolutely fantastic play that very few players would be able to think of. Obst has the absolute worst full house in this spot, but by leading out for just over a third of Ruane's remaining stack Ruane is only ever shoving better hands, any flush would just call in this spot. If Obst checks the river, Ruane jams and Obst is practically out, which is certainly what I would have done. Obst's bet however allows him to fold, and although his stack is massively crippled 11million still gives him a great chance of making the final table.
The community asked, and dog polk delivered once again. Solid work
Love your videos Doug. Cool to see you grown to 20k subs as well. 😎
Glad to hear it, putting in work over here
@ 11:33 . What is "bi-betting?" I've never heard of this strategy please explain.
He's saying "by betting..." not "bi-betting"
7:25 I didn't know doug was a dealer.
Great videos Doug, you're helping fish out like myself. Could you make a video talking about blockers?
cockblockers?
I think the river bet is because most of Ruane's holdings are flushes. All of those flushes check back to showdown, and given the action might even fold to a jam. Everyone is on a narrow range and really doesn't feel like there's any bluffing happening given the action, so the board pairing is actually a legit scare card for flushes, and a very very good disciplined player may find a fold to a shove here.
I like your analysis until the end. I see what you're saying as far as l, if your boat loses to a straight flush then it's just not your day. I think you're bringing a cash game strategy to tournament play. I've heard other pros that I respect say, chips lost are more important than chips gained. I respect your tourney game, but in this instance he made a value bet when he thought he could beat his straight or flush w/ a boat. Then after thinking about it, realized he's beat. If he checks then he's doing that to trap & he may have called an all in at that point. Then he's out, so in a way that small bet let him fold. IMO that wasn't his intention when he leads, but once his opponent jams he can't be bluffing. His jam is screaming your boat is no good. Great play by both players
Agree with your analysis. Thing is cash game players don't have as much value for tournament life as MTT players do. Partly the reason Greg Merson was able to win ME from 5bb. If a top cash game player busts the ME he just he walks into the highstakes room and is a favorite to win back his buy in and a lot more. But when a top MTT players busts a tournament like the ME, he has to wait weeks to get into another with similar value and months to years before another super deep run on the average.
I agree with Bob, this was my thinking as well.
This 100x. Don't know what Doug was saying about the river bet being a bad sizing. Pretty bad analysis there
You said yourself how polarized Obst is on the turn to basically having sets or bluffs and Ruane basically has flushes, bluffs, JJ & rarely QQ. So when board pairs river isn't Ruane even going to check back nut flush? because Obst isn't calling with less than a boat so he's basically turning nut flush in to a bluff. So if Obst jams this river that smashes his range and is bad for Ruane's cant he safely fold his flushes and call with his boats? Where as a small bet gets value from flushes Ruane would otherwise fold to a jam?
This is the one aspect of GTO I have a hard time with. I absolutely agree that we need to have a balanced range of calls in a variety of situations. But i feel like suggesting that because he folded this particular hand this particular time that it’s going to lead to an overall unbalanced and exploitable range.
I don’t know how long they had been at the table together and their history, but if Obst had put together enough info about his villain that every part of his being is telling him that villain is just never jamming here at this stage of a tournament of that caliber without JJ or a straight flush, does that not still make it the correct play.
It seems similar to the story on upswing poker that Ryan was telling where Doug (I think) was playing a bot, there was four to a straight on the board and one blank. The boy had a K which gave him Broadway (the absolute nuts in that situation) and the bot folded to a jam. When Doug brought it to the attention of the people who created the bot, and said he thought something was wrong with it because it just folded the nuts, the guy told him “no. In order for it to play legit GTO it is required to even the nuts a certain percentage of the time in order to have a truly balanced range”
You have no idea how GTO works at all
"If Obst decides that Ruane is on a draw and jams, Ruane is going to be fucked."
I laughed so hard. Great analysis as always, glad I subscribed.
I actually think Obst's bet fold on the river is a valid decision to make. Assuming Ruane never gets to the river with bluffs (which is likely give he raised the flop 4x way and peeled a 3bet, imo a hand like KTs T9s that could potentially be bluffs aren't in his range- they flat on the flop) then Ruane just has a flush extremely frequently in this spot. Given the board pairs and Obst can have full houses in his range, I think Ruane would sigh call with any flush and would not shove as thinly as the ace high flush. He also isn't going to turn a flush into a bluff. Given his turn size I think that hands like jj and qq could potentially be in Ruane's range, although checking back would probably be more standard. Seeing as he can never have bluffs in this spot and Ruane cannot have worse value hands I think it makes sense for Obst to fold, even if you can argue he never has a bet call range here.
These caliber players always have big draws in their raising range if they don't flat with all their range with their flop. You can't make assumption he won't raise k10c on flop as it's highly unlikely...
I think the likelihood of KTcc being in anyone's flop-raising range is somewhat reduced when the Tc falls on the turn. ;)
+Arty Lee Point i was making was in isolation not considering this hand in particular
I agree with you 100% when we are talking about this specific player. Ruane doesn't make this play without the nuts or JJ, never ever ever
pfox164 how does he just flat jj on the flop though?
think at the end, Ruan had a very obvious live tell, (less expeience of playing live tournament). he annouced tall in directly to the dealer. classic strong sign.
Do you think bet sizing on turn is saying saying like 'I could be in a high variance spot, and my entire range is jamming you on the river here almost no matter what'? I.E., his value range gets strong because the play supports all bluffs too?
Just a thought.
Jame.
I disagree with your analysis at the end. I feel like his bet was to get value from a flush. and it allows him to just food to a jam. why would you jam knowing the only hands that are probably calling are better boats and the straight flush. maybe a nut flush hero call. and the way the hand was played call the all in raise your obit going to beat a crazy bluff
Love the viktor blom poster in the background :D
Yup The Kassouf video and this one have summed up the pre final table action :). Very interesting analysis. Thanks Doug.
How on earth does he place him on the straight flush rather than the Ace high flush (Ace-King of Clubs, as an example)? Would Ace-King of Clubs play differently somehow?
Kostis Panselinos Ak of clubs doesn't have to always reraise preflop. But you're never jamming over top of a bet on the river
AK clubs doesn't jam over a lead with a paired board. He either has better boat, SF or unlikely bluff
It's actually incredible that he doesn't go broke in this hand lol (or close to it anyways)
Completely agree that the stakes and prestige of reaching the final table are leading to weird small bet sizings and non standard lines.
How should ICM affect late tournament bet sizing?
Really appreciate the way you explain the reasoning behind placing of the bets, and bet size. I think at higher stakes bet sizing seems to be the key to surviving, getting paid off; and not going broke. You vids are thought provoking to say the least, and I am sure I am not the only one, but thanks for taking the time out to explain your take on what is happening. If you want to play with the best, you got to understand how and what they are thinking. Once again, thanks; please keep it up it is appreciated.
Hey Doug, I'm an aspiring poker player in college and this is the shit I do like
Yess 😃
I don't wanna take too much credit to myself, but I was one of the first ones suggesting here Doug should analyze this hand yesterday 😏
Anyway, great job, as usual !
If you read this Doug, could you comment Wil Kassouf, and generally big table talkers, what's your opinion on them and what do you think they contribute to the game of poker, both to the viewers and players on the table ?
dude you maybe got him to do a video... dont push it now lol - ya trying to be his producer?
Felipe, I saw your comment and it was the moment I decided to do this video! Great idea btw :D
Doug Polk
Glad to inspire you man, will try to do that in the future as well !
And I'm also very glad my monopoly on your replies here on TH-cam continues ☺
PS
MAKE A SHOW IN WHICH YOU ANALYZE SOME OF YOUR VIEWERS HANDS (hey Adrian Fenixx occasionally does that live on Twitch, how about you do it here at least once a month so some of your viewers have permanent memory of it ☺), if you still plan to add something new to your TH-cam channel.
Dougy dougg! You're the man! I really like your videos, and have learned a ton from watching them, so thank you!
For this hand, I think you might be undervaluing the magnitude of the situation. This is Day 7 of the ME, and for most of these guys its the most money they'll ever play for by a mile. They don't play high rollers, or 10ks like you do.
So i don't think that getting away from 77 in a live tournament like this would be that impossible.
Bc that Rouse guy is never bluffing. Ever. In a billion years. And I don't think Obst has to 'balance his range' here or have too many calls here w 77 b/c its a live tourney, and you don't need to balance your range so perfectly. There are other ways to take advantage.
At leas that's what your videos have taught me :-) .
Just my thought keep pumping out the dope content!
What episode is this hand on?
Doug, If it was a heads up pot, your reason for shoving or calling on the river from Obst would have been justified. As there was heavy action on the 4 handed flop including 2-bet raise and 3 -bet calling and shoving the 2-bet on the river from Ruane , there are only 2 hands remained in his range(1 or 2 Jack pairs and straight flush). This is an incredible lay down from Obst.
Obst's tiny river bet is a sick, next level play. With a bet this small, Ruane almost certainly has to pay off with any flush. With gameplay as it was, Ruane will have primarilly nut flushes (all nut flushes are actually possible at this point) and occasionally something like K8, 5-4, 6-5, 6-4.
Now while, Ruane will be forced to pay off with those hands, he can NEVER raise with them. Therefore, when Ruane shoves he is polarized to something stronger than bottom boat or a bluff, and there are a few hands better than 7s full in Ruane's range. K9s and 98s are perfectly strong candidates to take this line. AKs is three-betting a large chunk of the time but not all the time.
What makes this fold so impressive to me, is that Ruane, essentially had no boats in his range. QQ and JJ are very likely three-bets pre-flop. JJ can flat pre some of the time and be okay, but flatting such a small raise with QQ would be very bad. There are a few tens Ruane could have, but they never contain a Q or a J, and they would usually contain the ten of clubs, which as we saw, is not possible. He might have gotten aggressive with AT or KT, but we're not losing to those hands, and Ruane is never raising the river with them.
The river bet is what allowed Obst to stay in the tournament. He is very unlikely to fold to a river shove when checked to, and he is losing out on getting any value from the hands which he might be able to get value from. I think you're projecting too much of your own thought process onto Obst when dissecting this hand, Doug. You should be able to watch this great play and learn something from it, rather than just saying his play doesn't conform to your standards of optimal play, and therefore judging it harshly.
there’s a difference between analyzing what a player is thinking and projecting one’s thought process on a player in order to critique it
Doug is always doing the latter unfortunately
Just seen that your Dnegs vs Colman Poker Hands has reached 200k+ views, GG. Great stuff.
Hey Doug thanks for this awesome Polker Hand!!! Big love
Hey Doug, as always thanks for the video, first time I've seen a Full House lose in WSOP (that is, losing on showdown). I have a general question though because I hear you talk about it a lot in your videos and I've been trying to find out more about it on the internet but haven't really gotten a clear understanding about it. I am an amateur poker player but I've always liked it, and I'm very good at math and odds on the fly. Can you explain (or if you've already made a video explaining it, link the video) what the subtle differences are between the possible hands you can have in the various positions around a poker table, Dealer chip, Small Blind, Big Blind; and also how it effects post flop betting/odds? I'd greatly appreciate it, and keep up the great videos :).
I actually think the river blocker bet is pretty reasonable. I think Obst knows that if the checks te river, he's gonna get shoved on 100%, and he does actually think about him having a straight flush, even before he actually calls it out. So the only way to 100% know that he's beat is to put in a blocker bet that is gonna get called by some worse hands like nut flushes, and only get shoved on by Jacks, Queens (qq not likely) and of course the straight flush. And he jams, so at that point he knows he's 100% beat, and leaves himself 11M behind to still be alive, otherwise he knows he'll have to c/c river all in and sometimes actually be out of the tournament.
what if the guy shoves non nut flush there?
He won't. he'd be happy to call the blocker bet on the river, and otherwise check back on river if checked to him.
Qui Nguyen just did that. And the other guy was afraid to call because he thought Nguyen never bluffs
Incredibly interesting hand. Thanks for the insight on it Doug.
Doug did you buy in for the main event, and if not why?
didnt have the funds, I am currently doing a bankroll challenge to get next years buyin
Wait, you've won couple of mils in poker and you do not have 10k for WSOP? :D
+Artis Spertāls Google "sarcasm" ;)
I don't know, maybe he's living over his expenses like most of those guys do and now is broke.
+ED He likes trolling people all the time, and some people like you don't have a bone a sarcasm in them which is funny af lol
Doug I disagree with what you said about the river bet from obst. remember although he filled up, he still has the worst full house on the board. while QQ is unlikely to be a part of Ruane's range given the preflop action, JJ or a big draw to the nut flush or straight flush are definitely hands in Ruane's range given the flop action and the turn lead.
on the river obst filled up, but rather than move all in for value, he opted to take the safer route in a tourney this big; he went for a small value bet leaving him with 11 million behind.
This bet accomplishes 2 things:
1) he gets value from all of Ruane's flushes.
2) he leaves himself room to fold against raises that rep bigger boats namely jacks full, the unlikely queens full or in this case, the absolute coconuts.
**note** while this play opens the opportunity for bluffs to attempt to steal the pot- the way the action went down it was highly unlikely Ruane was bluffing here.
IF obst moved all in, i don't think flushes would pay- the nut flush might, but other flushes are going to muck- only better hands would call.
IF obst checks two things could happen:1) small flushes will check back and he will lose value, nut flush might go for a bet.
2) bigger boats or the nuts are moving all in, but then obst will be in the dark without any info to go on, and will likely be forced to call it off.
in conclusion, obst's river lead was the optimal play given the action that lead to that point, Ruane's raise shove gave him enough info to correctly lay down 7s full.
the real curious question is: if he made quad 7s on the river instead of 7s full..would he have made the same bet and then subsequent fold? he might've i think since he verbally put Ruane on the straight flush. what do you think?
Whilst I'm totally down with the GTO-style analysis, I think there is room for a "soul read" in this spot given the very specific action and board run-out. Ruane rarely has QQ given preflop action, and if he had JJ he would be 4betting flop at least some percentage of the time given that Obst never has QQ either. Obst's 3bet on the flop screams set or QJ and Ruane's facial reaction @7:26 confirms that his thoughts are the same. He may have a hint of paranoia about being up against a bigger FD, but that possibility is slim if not null (perhaps only KcQc for top pair and 2nd NFD). When Ruane bets 3.75m on the turn he gives odds for Obst to boat up. Why invite him in? Would he not barrel larger with a bluff or A/K high flush to polarize his range? And what tens does Ruane have on the flop? All his tens are either 1 pair hands, straight draws or flushdraws- the first two hand types don't really get to the turn in this way if ever and the Tc is invalidated by it coming on the turn. Conclusion: Ruane never (or very rarely) has boats by the river. Of course, with Obst having bottom boat, this is irrelevant in terms of the final call decision on the river, but it is necessary for the specific SF read.
And I just don't see what bluffs he has on the river either. If he had QJ that he turned into a bluff to try and fold out small boats or flushes then that would be a whole new level of sickness. Why do that at this stage in the ME when villain covers your stack? Honestly, what worse hands does Ruane ever have when he shoves the river? And if we can't list any, front shoving sevens full on the river is turning the hand into a bluff! And I simply can't follow the logic of "we must call river shove with hands of strength x" when we can't list a single worse hand Ruane might have. Of course it is always easy when you see the cards in the replay. And in Obst's shoes I would be stacking off sevens full with a heavy heart and a line similar to what you suggest. But I think Obst knew exactly what he was doing with the river block bet and I don't think he deserves criticism for making one of the sickest folds of all time.
As ever great GTO analysis. I wonder if Obst (having watched this guy play) may have picked up something. After all he does say "I think you have a straight flush, or you could be the best actor of all- time". My question is if you feel you have a solid live read how much do you deviate from the GTO play? (which as you said is shoving the river).
I think the idea behind the turn bet is that Ruane is trying to shrink his own stack size so that it's an easier call for his opponent on the river. I think Ruane feels that Obst is on a strong range given the flop action - hands like 77, QJ, maybe KQclubs, maybe even AQclubs - because there just aren't a ton of bluffs on the flop with Ruane holding blockers, and not a lot of middle value hands that would take that line.
I think Ruane wants to give Obst good enough odds to try to boat up and also make the river bet comparably smaller to the relative size of the pot.
I like it.
Nice as always
I feel Ruane's range may be a bit wider than you have suggested here, but all in all a very good analysis.
Solid video, thanks for doing the analysis.
Hey Doug, how about Ivey's huge level (Qh8h on JJ7) vs Paul Jackson?
Good stuff as always and great poster game!
Doug, you said QJ is a good bluff spot by river by obst. I kinda disagree, because both players don't really have QQ/JJ or rarely have it, does the card removal effect really make it a very good +EV bluff from Obst? If Obst can't have much bluffs then does it make it much better he just check on the river with his entire range?
I think that it is not likely for anybody to have plaed preflop with QQ or JJ this way.
That said, this hand was played postflop is such a ununsual way, that that could easily mean that this is one of the very few times somebody DID slowplay QQ or JJ pre.
Because while yeah, you don't think he has QQ or JJ very often, but what DOES he have?
yea I!d like to see someone to raise_call JJ/QQ otf in that spot lel on the flop
I would have lost my stack with the Full House. No way would I have ever laid that down. Mad props to Obst!
15:57 "You do have to have some calls here." That's right from a GTO perspective but if your opponent is holding the nuts 100% of the time it's simply unrelevant for the spot.
"He always has a straight flush here..."
Hey Doug, is pokerstars online still legit to play? It seems like there's too few peeps online.. nice vids by the way.
Love your videos, but I have to disagree with you somewhat. I think it's paramount that when the straight flush got there, Ruane must bet for value. I think Obst played his hand really face up. The bet size it's perfect that no way he can fold the set or QJ. I'm still debating on your comment on shoving the river when Obst boat up. I think check calling might be better? I don't know. What do you think?
I think the last part Obst made a small bet so Ruane would find it hard to fold with the nut flush because of the size of the pot. But Ruane probably put Obst on a nut flush draw or a set hence the size of the bet on the turn. Then When the river came it didn't matter what hand Obst was trying to make (full house or Boat) as he would of made either. So when he went all in it was strong and thought he'd probably get called considering the size of the pot.
love these series
Doug thanks for the post
also is that Loras from GoT (Ruane)
I watched this yesterday and immediately wondered what Doug would think about it. Dodgy turn bet and how does Obst not get stacked at the end??
He’s betting river because if they come over the top, it’s incredibly hard to be bluffing on that board. Still insane hand either way
incredible lay down, Doug, could you maybe explain how Obst could have known his opponent had a straight flush. And how did he know it on the river and not on the turn?
@doug, please review the Q5dd hand from Robl against Kirk from super high roller cg!
Would also like to hear your opinion on this format and if you plan on playing it again anytime soon :)
Conceptually, this is a satisfactory analysis and the laydown is stunning. The fact Obst was only holding the worst full house and very deep stacked would have been a factor for me. It's not like Obst was holding a Queens full or even tens full, individually there are not that many combo's that beat him but collectively there are quite a few, and not unreasonably so on further consideration.
Also, Obsts comment that Ruan has the joint is very telling though. He doesn't say "you have a boat here" which struck me as an insight on the laydown. Obst must have has a dialed in read on Ruan is the only thing I can figure it for.
Hey Doug, could you analyze Qui Nguyen hands in final table to his overall strategy vs other pros etc, that would be rad!
one of the sickest folds ive ever seen
great video as usual Doug!
Thanks! Had to rush this guy out with how many people were demanding it.
+Doug Polk impressed with how fast you got this out. *clap*
Good job Doug. Great analysis!
Great no-spoiler title!
this hand was super interesting thank you for analyzing
I was a fan of the tiny turn bet as it:
1. Guarantees he can play for stacks on the river by setting up a
Yeah I'm pretty on board with the turn sizing even with whatever bluffs he decides to put in his range (provided that he also follows thru with a river bluff jamm, not just his value).
and that's the key question Obst had to ask himself. Would Ruane understand with his turn sizing that he would have to jam over the top with his bluffs as well
Hey Doug, i see you take a somewhat gto approach to the river by saying that obst has to have some calls here since if he isn't calling with his boats he's effectively folding 100% of his range, however, I think that exploitatively ruane literally never has a bluff here and that therefore a fold might be correct. thoughts?
It is hard to answer comments like this, because it goes in a loop. We could say Obst should always fold because Ruane will never bluff. But then Ruane should always bluff because Obst will never call. But if Ruane should always bluff then Obst should always call. I prefer to not just stare my opponent down and play RPS for millions of dollars, and use a balanced strategy.
That's what I'm thinking aswell. These guys are amateurs and they are deep in the main event, I'm not sure if they're ever bluffing here.
But neither of these 2 players are amateurs. James Obst is an online pro with multiple SCOOP titles. Michael Ruane have been around for years, and have been living off poker for a very long time.
Jonathan Clavet-Grenier These guys are not amateurs..
Fender T-shirt? New sponsor? :)
i think it was a weird blocking bet with a boat...also why you like the smaller bet??with the straight flush specially its good...but with everu other possible flush you give your opponent direct odds to call....so i mean its logic but surely not balanced.....
it was a blocker bet on the river no?
The way I see this hand makes a lot of sense because we can see their holdings but this is definitely what these guys were thinking IMO.
Flop: top pair makes a small continuation bet to get value, nut flush draw then reraises to almost potsize to try to take the pot down on the spot or get lucky on later street, bottom set(SB) pops it up with a 3bet showing real strength on a scary board representing either 2 pair or 77 .. bb and top pair has an easy fold and nut flush draw has an easy call given the implied odds and how much chips he's already put in.
Honestly after the flop, they pretty much played their hands faced up imo. now you might say it is easy for us to say this because we can see their exact holdings you'll have to keep in mind that these two are pros and are really deeeeep in this tournament. Reason I say they played it face up is because given the turn action followed by a jam on the river. the only hands he would do that on a paired board is with the top boat/str8flush/stone cold bluff but given the table action and considering how deep they are in the tournament it's just very unlikely in his range.
Now with that said I would much rather stay longer in the tournament with avg/above avg stack behind than to go home with a great bad beat story..
Great lay down.
Great analysis on qq and jj being possibillities.
Any solid+ player knows in that situation if the other player is also solid+ then only a bluff or better hand than the bottom full house in this specific situation.
Poker os just that. Each hand played specifically on its own merits.
The logic for smaller bet sizing (30%pot etc)is that they can get folds for cheaper when deep in a tournament where tournament life is a factor, and they balance it with strong hands too. I don't really understand how you couldn't easily recognise that, flawed or not-flawed as it may be.
He said all in to the dealer and looks super confident. NOT like the other recent straight flush though where he made the speech about giving X time then he'd call the clock. Live poker involves reads not just math/GTO . Props to Obst
Wow... the river bet was a blocker??? That's a crazy helluva read.
This is all from Duane's eyes closed electric shock on the flop.
Obst makes a small bet on the river because he knows Ruanne’s raise-call on the flop could be a combo draw and that he could have a SF on the turn. When the board pairs on the river, Obst has to bet because he has a boat, but also knows that he must fold to a reraise. If he checks the river and Ruanne goes all-in, Obst doesn’t know if his FH is good and he’ll be forced to make a crying call. The act of Ruanne reraising gives Obst the info he needs to fold. Obst could also be worried about QQ or JJ and folding 77 is “easier” than folding the others. But I can tell you, it would be impossible for me to fold. I’m nowhere close to good enough.
LIke Doug said calling is better. It allows Pons to also call or do something crazy and reraise/jam pushing the draw out of the pot. Obst could then donkjam the turn to a blank or checkcall turn.
7 of spades on the river would have been nice :) .
Marvin Nash I think it would be the same spot. Like does jj qq just flat and let 77 get off the hook or let all the flush draws realise their equity? if it's set vs set on that flop it's going in on the flop so surly quad 7s is the same hand
I think in that case Obst bet calls/check calls(jams) every time otr. Just one combo beats him. People get coolerd in poker, everyone does. Its just your time to go, never mind its last 3 tables in the main event.
Lol
u are demented! .....thats cruel and unusual punishment. that said, yeah that 7 of spade would have made great drama!
same situationtion you fish except most of the fishy replies saying obst never bluffing so you gotta fold would turn into, sometimes its your time to go. :D
if you think about that small river bet it seems pretty genius you get value from the nut flush because no flush will ever raise you beside the str8 flush and you can think what hands will ever raise here only bigger boats or str8 flush or bluff but does he ever has a bluff here not really so i say if you look it datway the bet is genius and i think it made him safe his chips here with this awsome fold. Not saying anyone else could do this here but this bet is just awsome and if he checks here he get either no value or has to call the all in so i think this river bet is not like you said the worst play in this hand its the best and it is one of the best bets i saw last year.
I think the river bet by Obst is the best play he had. All in he’s eliminated. If he checks, Ruane controls the sizing and he gets no info because it’s either bluff or the nuts. It was a feeler bet because he was trying to see if his turn read on the straight flush was correct. There’s nothing wrong with the play on this hand IMO, other than Ruane’s turn bet… maybe. If he had just checked, Obst would’ve had less information… possibly. But he may have also felt like he was getting trapped. There was far more body language “reading” going on in this hand than betting indicators IMO. Just my take.
Thumbed Up for the Isildur1 picture
You should review the new fold from Obst in the new episodes of the WSOP
WHAT THE TEAM WHEN YOU HAD IT CALL 9:00 WORD'S
THEY CALL WORK FOR VICKY'S KAA BACHAA
Good analysis. I wonder if the concept of playing gto is really applicable to these once in a lifetime deep in the wsop, tournament situations. It is not like your daily 5-10 cash game played against the same regulars. You may not need to protect your value bets with occasional bluffs as though you will be doing this 200 times and you don't want to be exploited. It could be that you simply should not have a $10
Million chip bluff into a 25 million chip pot with opponent showing heavy strength and which sometimes causes you to bust out.
Now certainly that can cost you some chips when you have the straight flush, and I think this is how the boat was able to fold. But ICM considerations mean that bluffing off all your chips is far far worse than failing to gain some value that you might have gotten.
both guys played the hand perfectly
Imagine if Ruane turned QJ into a bluff here and got the monster laydown. That would probably top the Durr QT bluff vs Greenstein and Eastgate.
detached from GTO play I think obst bet the river like he did to get a crying call from an A or K high flush which is what he put Ruane on with the line Ruane took. Also, if Obst does jam the river, what worse hand can call him?
i love the isildur poster!