Poker Hands - Is Tom Dwan Really Bluffing Phil Ivey Here?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ต.ค. 2024
- Doug breaks down one of the most famous hands from High Stakes Poker. Phil Ivey, the 10-time World Series of Poker bracelet winner, is put to the test on the river for a $676,000 pot. He seems sure that Tom "Durrrr" Dwan is bluffing, but it's a costly mistake if he's wrong. What would you do?
The table goes silent as Daniel Negreanu, Antonio Esfandiari, Eli Elezra and Phil Laak look on in fascination. Nobody seems to believe that Dwan could have been bluffing in that spot.
Poker Hands is a series in which Doug analyzes televised hands and shares his thoughts. Hands from the EPT (European Poker Tour), WPT (World Poker Tour), Poker After Dark, and other popular series are considered. New episodes are uploaded every Monday (and sometimes Thursday).
Leave a comment below to share your thoughts on this hand and to suggest other hands you'd like to see analyzed.
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Every time I watch that hand I'm still hoping Ivey calls.
Trunks9000 I swear to god, I was gonna say the exact same thing.
Lol i always think that. I remember the first time i saw it. In my head " call call call "
But A6hh lose to JJ. It's right fold.
Me too and I dont know why. Its not like I dislike Tom or anything. And Tom's showing a hell of a lot of heart in this hand.
Tom doesn't have enough bluffs on this board, and it's why Ivy had to fold. But yea, i really wished Ivey called him too
What sort of panic sets in when durrrr hears Ivey say "This is gonna be the sickest call of all time"?
I dont know about him but my balls would have str8 dropped on the floor.
Ryan Costello i would of farted a little bit
Chino O I would’ve done more than just fart LOL
Such an epic spot for Durr at that moment
"I can't beat anything, except for that"
I haven't had anything to do with Poker for a number of years but watching this was interesting and made me want to play again...nice work WCG.
Ivey thinking of calling the bet on river made him great in my eyes.
Just want to let you guys know why it says Poker Hands by Doug Polk in the bottom right for so long, because this is an older video it was shot in 4 : 3. Because of this, we needed something to fill the space. Hopefully it is not too distracting.
*POKER HANDS* with *DOUG POLK*
ARRRRRGHHHHH!!!
Well Done!
*****
Yeah, coming back to this after a few months, we're no long wondering why it says "Poker Hands" for the same reason as he originally posted about :D
Hey Doug, I know this is a crazy old video, but I have a strange thought process on why the Ad is a good card to have. Idk how I would term it, but if Dwan decides not to bluff with high diamonds in his hand like the Ad, then having the Ad means that Dwan could have a lower flush draw that he’s choosing to bluff unlike if Ivey had a hand like 76dd where he blocks 65s, 87s, and also possible the gappers. He also blocks AJ. I heard this concept discussed by a couple 500z players, so I was wondering if it applied here. Having the Ad would also mean Dwan can have airballs like the 98ss he does actually have here.
I had question Mr. Polk. Ivey was probably putting Dwan on a pretty big hand. How was his calling on turn a good one? He must've thought that he only had 12 outs. 9 diamonds and 3 jacks. His outs were 24℅ and the pot odds were almost 30℅. Isn't it -ev decision in the long run?
Dwan look's like he is going to have a stroke mid hand hahahaha I'm suprised Phil Ivey couldn't hear is heart pounding threw his chest
This is definitely my favorite hand of all time. Tom Dwan #beast
My absolute favorite part of this hand is how stupid Negraneau looks when he says he knows Iveys hand.
I would have told him to write down what he thinks Ivey has and see if he's right. It's a bit tough though, because neither player likely wants to show here, lol.
not only stupid, but without class as well. dude is contemplating a call for a 1 mil pot and Dnegs just has to insert himself and try to become the center of attention. 50-year old baby at work
imo one of the sickest hands on tv ever
I don't know how, but the back of Negreanu's head manages to be more annoying than the front.
Dwan would prolly be able to make that play with JT or other semi-bluffs so that makes a call pretty hard in that spot. Nice vid.
Laak and Antonio knew it. I believe Phil knew it too. Sometimes you just can't call cause your hand is too bad to call with.
"Binks is having a nightmare" hahaha
People don't seem to give the team of Antonio and Laak enough credit for instigating some of the famous huge pots in tv poker.
prove it
@@TalesFrom_TheCrypto why?
Relative to most videos on TH-cam, your mic is low. I have to always turn up the volume 30% on your channel.
Phil is right that would have been the sickest call of all time
I actually think Eli ruined this hand! From 18:26, you can literally see the gears in Ivey's brain turning. At 18:49 he sits up straight and says "Let's think about this a little bit." He is focused and in the zone like an athlete at the peak of their plays. And at 19:04, he's distracted by people drawing attention to Eli dozing off and then Eli wakes up and makes some useless comments. The moment is gone. He's now smiling and laughing and ends up mucking the hand :(
Yep, I agree. Eli sleeping impacted this hand, Ivey's "flow", and influenced the fold
It’s more the table making a thing of it .. Ivey was in a zone and they all start making Eli sleeping a thing. Ivey didn’t care and they all should’ve stfu about it.
Doug refuses to acknowledge the importance of body language in hands like this. Dwan is one of the best poker players in the world at reading body language and knew Phil was uncomfortable. Undoubtedly factored into his thought process, you can tell on the flop Phil is slouching and wants to hide
Yeah, Ivey's turn call looked VERY reluctant.
Eh idk though. You don’t know ivey doesn’t balance the perceived reluctance by faking reluctance when he’s trapping
@@benwoodcock8805 I’ve seen a lot of Ivey hands, Beverly seen anything like that
One of the best poker players in the world has an obvious tell that any rando on YT can figure out. Sure thing man.
well i"m a pro poker player and have studied body language and live tells quite a bit, not quite a random youtuber. also, Tom is well known as one of the best in the world at reading body language. watch the video again and pay close attention@@Ben-ov2fi
Ivey: ‘Can’t beat nothing… Except for that’
It pained him soo bad to lay down to Dawn here lol.
I'm not sure if he says that or: "Can't be nothing... except for that"
That's atleast how I have always heard it.
For a long time I figured that Ivey decided he had to fold since even some of Dwan's bluffs beat him, like 77-99, T9s, JTs, QJs, and ATs. I suppose Dwan decided to bomb the river here because in addition to not blocking FDs, he just knows that Ivey's range is capped and his isn't. But wouldn't it be better for Dwan to bluff with hands like JTs, QJs, KJs and K9s that block Ivey's 2-pair combos? Cause like you said, Ivey's turn-calling range still contains J9s and all AJ combos.
I find it funny how doug but zero effort into naming this series.
You'd be surprised.
Polker Hands was taken by a Eastern European Oompaa Band
Chavy Cash I find it funny how you put zero effort in your comment critiquing him...
Dealwiththe Bob I find it funny how you put zero effort in critiquing my comment about critiquing doug...
Chavy Cash I found it funny how you actually put effort into critiquing my comment by correcting your spelling mistake, yet didn't put any effort in critiquing the content creator Doug...
AA can be a check, but AK should really be a value bet on the flop, right? Phil Ivey can have all the 2 pair hands - Q10/K10/KQ - that he'd flat Laak's raise pre and then call Dwan's 3bet. He'd 3bet all the pocket pairs that flop set himself.
So with AK you're only worried about 2 K10 + 2 KQ combos, and this is an even better flop for AK because the Qc + 10d means he only have 2 Q10s. Then include the 3 AJs hands and Dwan with AK is only worried about 9 combos exactly?
Combinatorics-wise, that's like checking an overpair on 825 two tone where only 9 combinations that beat you.
I think it would the best overpair/one pair type hand to bet flop with given that it reduces the probability that you got outflopped. With AA, you only block +1 more AJs combo, but the net card removal effect is that Ivey has more KQ/K10 relative to when you have AK.
But from a balance perspective, I do see how you need AK to protect your check-call range, if you're checking JJ and AQ, that's altogether 18 combos vs. 18 combos of AK and AA, so it works.
But I don't think you can protect your entire range. Dwan could well 3bet 99 preflop for value, then your checks are skewed to 57% middle pair + straight draw or underpairs again. Given the draw-heaviness of the board, maybe betting more often with AK is a bigger priority?
Or is 99 a x/f on this flop, or just a call preflop?
the best hand to jam river with is definitely AJ, you have the nuts as well as best blockers
Fly away now
I'm already gone.
lol
Doug, I don't think bluff raising river in Ivey's shoes is ever a good play b/c Dwan's 3 streets bluffing range in this scenario is very narrow to the hands you mentioned (unless he's a total maniac that is going to be super unbalanced and weighted towards bluffs). I think this is a bad bluff even with KJs that blocks hands to the str8 b/c it is very ulikely that Dwan is going to triple barrel and fold the top of his value range (KK,QQ,TT, J9s sometimes) for just about ~250K more behind (pot being 679K) if Ivey decides to bluff raise. If Dwan had more money behind and pot geometry was different then I could see a river bluff raise with Jx blocker working more often, but not in this spot.Also, don't you think trying to bluff people out of the top of their range is a bad idea; esp when they have range advantage? That's one of the main reasons why I think your bluff vs Patrik didn't work b/c he was at the top of his range (even tho I like the hand you chose to bluff). I just don't think that trying to bluff people when they have super strong hands and one of the few hands they're going to have in a certain spot, Is a good idea.
It's not terrible to bluff shove the river with some blockers here in general but it is terrible vs Dwan because he stations. He's never folding with those odds if he ever thinks the opponent can bluff, which he does always think. Dwan would never fold any value hand to a river shove.
So your plan is to only shove j9,aj here? That's not a very good strategy
lol so what else do you propose genius? Try to bluff your way with every Jx in a pot where there's little to no FE? Yeah that sounds like a better strat
John Griller That's what I'm saying no FE for Dwan unless he has nothing, but in general there is Fold Equity for tighter players that would ONLY shove there with the nuts. So if you bet KKK on the river there ($268,200) and Johnny Chan Shoves for say 270k more, calling there is losing 100% of the time.
You could decide to only bluff shove with JJ and AJ would be for value. There's more combo's of AJ then JJ
The commentator is the most enjoyable thing for me in this. It feels like someone doing a reaction video with some snarky comments lol
he is a legend
in one series he plays at the table
This is def the best series on the channel.
Countinue with it my man!
When Eli folds and makes that statement, the button is on him. Then the screen changes and Ivey has the button.
The button didn’t change spots. Not sure what you’re seeing.
Why are your videos always so damn quiet?!
yes it's really quiet even on maximum volume..
the mic is muted
he is in Australia, his mic is upside down
listen to this man @dougpolk!
Doug, would you say its wrong for Ivey to call this river with A6?? If he thinks dwan is exploitatively overbluffing this river, doesn't that mean he can technically max exploit by calling 100% of his bluffcatcher and just rekting Dwan? Obv it means he might get readjusted on but thats another issue
Except it's not even a good bluff catcher. Dwan could be bluffing with a better hand. 99, 88, 77 are possible hands for Dwan to barrel 3 times trying to get Ivey off of a hand like J10, QJ, or KJ. Just because a guy is "bluffing" doesn't mean that he can't have a better hand.
Dwan squeeze pre 99, 88, 77 all play much better as a set mine
like your thought process, it's spot on, this is how I like to try and approach a hand/hands. thanks for the videos. 😎
I’ve watched like 30 of your videos, the last two before this one was auto played were ones where you were kinda apologizing/explaining your content and they were pretty helpful in realizing how to think about your strategy. I love these vids, bro. Don’t apologize, you are a good host!
Hey Doug, really nice video! However, as a begginer, I get reeally confused when you just say something like: "Does he 3bet a hand like suited aces or not", who are you talking about? Are you talking about Dwan representing such a hand or thinking Ivey has such a hand? I got confused many times during the video not knowing exactly what you mean :/ I know it must be obvious to you, but for me it isn`t lol Great analysis though!
"Binks has a nightmare" so casual 😂
Can someone explain the concept of card removal to me? Does the math really improve that much if someone has a 3/52 chance of having a card vs 4/52 chance?
Doug a few weeks ago you referred to Dwan as "a whale on a heater", this week you referred to him as a great player. Which one is he?
Doug just refuses to answer my questions :(
Dwan's heads up game is his strength in his opinion. I can't imagine Doug thinking he's a better ring game player, but maybe. It would be nice if he answered!!!!
doug, you insight is unparalleled. thank you for opening my poker mind.
Love these videos Doug. You're analyses are really helping with my thought process during hands. Watched you're twitched stream yesterday, that was a tough loss. You're definitely becoming one of my fav players to watch.
Thanks Mark, that's always great to hear. Man, that stream was nuts yesterday.
who has the button is the biggest mystery of this whole hand
dwan " there was something about the light " hahah
this is the best hand from high stakes poker.
Nice analyze Doug, keep going !!!
Read down in the comments that you are from Australia Mate Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi love this series so much Please tell me your gonna play the main event next year????
Very interesting hand there to be honest.
I think Tom bets exactly the same if not slightly more if a diamond hits the river, I can't see him giving up there and Phil would scoop a huge pot.
I believe Phil knows that Tom is weak and I think comes to the conclusion that tom Probably has a hand like JJ with the Jack of diamonds hence the fold with 66.
Tom's betting/bluffing is awesome but I think Phil taking as long as he did there with just a 6 on the river in such a huge pot shows why at the time he was the best player in the world.
It's easy to say but if it were me there on the button I would raise to about 120k when tom bets 46k on the flop just to give the hand more definition and really test Tom's hand strength on the flop.
If Tom did decide to call and float to try and take the pot away on the river it really likely goes check check on the same 3s turn card.
So Phil essentially would save money as the turn bet was 120k. I think also Tom much more likely shuts down on the river on the same run out as he would be scared Phil does have a huge hand. But I do agree with you Doug that flatting the flop is the ideal play most of the time here just against Tom I think a raise is better with Phil's huge draw.
The smash cut at 2:22 is the greatest
Doug you say Dwan shouldn't fire 3rd barrel if he has missed diamonds, but say Ivey should fold because he blocks diamonds. Perhaps Ivey should call with missed diamonds if Dwan is indeed not bluffing missed diamonds on river.
I like how Gabe describe Tom as he's really nervous...LMFAO...And Ivey is going to puk blood watching this video
Great video Doug, although I have a question about when you were talking about " doesnt have odds to call" on the turn. As the commentator states, he says that Ivey believes he has the implied odds to make calling profitable vs sets, so why do you say he doesn't vs sets specifically when he has 22.7% equity vs them and is calling 120 to win the 286 pot with Dwan having something like 5 or 600 behind? I guess Dwan could maybe get away from an Ivey shove with tens if a diamond hits, although 3 betting tens preflop in that spot seems way inferior to calling with them imo. Folding Queens or Kings with that spr seems pretty exploitable even if the flush or straight is a big part of Ivey's range then.
I know it's all hindsight and it's easier when you see the cards etc but if Ivey justbraises flop could have won the hand and if called just gave up
Ur hand analysis is really nice contrast to pathetic phil leak and esfandiari - autorewind. Good job in keeping poker skill game. Best regards Doug!
let the hand play out first. in my opinion it makes the video more enjozable....! let a viewer make their opinion before interrupting nad giving input on each streak.
If there only were more rake, Daniel would go with J3s and bluffreraise river.
Ace 6 suited is ok to call A6 big blinds preflop?? Can't even hit a nutter straight with it.
Ivey would have bluffed raised river if tom dwan had more left behind, but Ivey assumed he was pot committed
phil calley the turn was bad but b/c his pot odds dont justify the call but these are pros they always call with bad pot odds
Thanks Doug for all Your Great Work You do a Great Job Take Care . . . -D1G1TALFOX
I fucking love you Doug! Keep up the great work you do. no homo btw!
Why do people dislike Daniel Neg?
He's corny and nerdy af
I wonder what it was Daniel thought Ivey had. Maybe KJ?
Would’ve been so fucking sick if Ivey had raised the river
Very nice to hear your input of such a legendary hand; are you enjoying the sun we are having in Vancouver?
14:22 binks is having a nightmare loool ur funny doug :)
I mean, what hand does Ivey put Dwan on where he thinks his 6's are good? J 8 diamonds? 9 8 diamonds? If so, I guess that makes sense bc then he's getting very good implied odds if the flush comes in. Can anyone speak to this?
I think this has to be the best televised poker hand of all time....right?
Incredibly happy to see these uploaded again. +EV videos. Thanks Doug.
I would have loved to see what Daniel's prediction was.
Wish we can hear Ivey and durrr talk about this hand
Stealing content and passing it off as your own. Lame.
How is this free???
The next episode will cost $102,000. I lost a tournament yesterday.
Damn bro I hate it for ya. I wanna let you know, I really appreciate what you're doing on here. I'm sure releasing the truth about how to play GTO poker is -EV, but the truth is a valuable thing. Please keep doin what you're doin homey.. It'll pay dividends long term.
Fantastic! Thank you so much for that review!
Quick question, why is being able to block a jack on the river (with KJ to use your example) more important than blocking the ace? It makes sense to me on an intuitive level, but mathematically, don't we block AJ equal amounts when we hold one ace as when we hold one jack (in Ivey's shoes, considering bluff shoving the river).
J9 is the other straight that’s out there that could easily hit Ivey’s range (and arguably Dwan’s as well) so the jack is the common denominator in both hands. You need that card either way so that blocker is much more important than the ace
oh well. dwan is broke now and ivey's rich.
How about footage that isn't 40 years old
Ever think about calling it "Polker Hands"?
you are the very first person to ever suggest that!
he's capped himself; ivey, perhaps.
thought, if dwan bet a slight amount more, he could take out almost all fold equity from ivey and prevent iveys raising there. i was thinking ivey is only raise/folding on the river here.
is that like a meta play though? dwan doesn't bet that much to show he's prepared to make that call, as well as price ivey out from calling something like aq/a10 type hands?
Phil ivey doesn' t beat even some bluff(JJ,AA,KJ).So why is he thinking?
He was never going to call he's sweating dwan
Easy to play like this when you know you're not paying back your debts
I really don't get why you continually ignore live tells. It's a crucial part of the game. Ivey didn't tank for several minutes on the river thinking about hand ranges and pot odds.
Of course he thought about that. And also thought about the tells. Dwan is quite stoic and not giving much really. His tells are indicative of a huge hand or a bluff
Glad you reviewed this hand! Cheers Doug!
This was a really good episode, my fav so far! One thing I always wondered about this hand was what Daniel thinks Ivey has at the end..
I believe the consensus on 2+2 was that Daniel put Ivey on QJ.
Thanks for this awesome video man.
Why would AJo be different for 3-betting pre from AJs? Both are kinda bad if you get 4-bet. Well, against many players its an easy snap fold but yeah
bcs you might peel against a smallish 4bet and have an extra flush draw playbality w AJs, but obv you hate life when you get 4bet
They're at the effective sizes that you could realistically flat a 4bet with AJs. Trip jacks are basically always good, you can flop the nut flush draw, you'll stack KK/QQ/TT every time on KQ10 flops etc.
Yea I too don't understand why Doug thinks Dwan 3 betting AJ pre would be bad 3 bet here bc 'if you get 4 bet youre in a tough situation( 8:04 ) ......wouldn't it be a easy fold granted everyones your opps are all pretty pretty standard which seems to be the case here pre from Dwans point of view??
2023
Of course is bluffing
doug why you didnt play the 102k game ?
I did.
trolling alert!
at the end you say that he should jam with AJ off, that's the nuts.
We know
What a sick hand
Doug you are an inspiration...never forget your 2+ 2 thread "end of my rope"...and after watching the way you break down the hands and having studied GTO it becomes so easy to break down hands into a logical sequence. Since watching all of your videos i am now consistently winning at the micros...i know a long way to go, but the longest journey begins with the first step. I don't play multi tables because like you i want a solid foundation in hand reading, players reads etc rather than go on auto piloting which multi tabling can lead to. Your words on poker are like the messiah preaching...i am all ears...lol..
Under Armor tank to wrap up the video? GTO, fo show.
I love these videos
miss these
Yes he is.
Great video
A hall of fame nap for a soon to be poker hall of famer
rip tom dwan
I love your breakdown Doug, watching and studying your videos has helped me take my game to the next level....
Love how ivey calls tom durrr
This is Phil Ivey. I'm glad you like that
how can u judge play of 2 best players in the world?how can u even think u know what they think?
polka :D
My god tom dwan is a monster
I think I would be crying just from the stress lolololol
Everyone on this table is playing badly against Dwan. They allow him to push them around. You can't beat a player that good by catching draws like you would against your average loose aggressive player. You need to fold or re-raise. Ivey should have raised the flop, or folded pre-flop.