The 7x open really hints at a hand like KK, much more than KQcc or something like that. I think I would've called. Plus you're on the top of your range here, if you fold here you're way overfolding, imho. It's way too easy for villain to push you out of the hand with just a blocker to the nuts.
I’ve been playing since ‘02(both live and online) and the biggest realized flaw in my game was/is the assumption that people are rational or is a “thinking” player. I’ve seen all sorts of ridiculous things through the years that it’s hard to gauge without being in the situation especially in a $1/$3. I disagree that KK can be ruled out, as well as any other hand that was targeting an “A”. It’s not like hero was showing any sign of a nutted hand during any of the streets. Unless “V” had a hand like 99, or any info. on hero’s image at the table, it’s hard to discount a second best hand like broadway PP with a club trying to get a fold. Which hand was villain raising 7x from UTG1 and also look for value OTR...from hero’s 2nd best hand that could check/call?
Thinking about it, pocket kings with a club could make a lot of sense. The unusually big pre-flop raise signals a premium hand, and then a tiny feeler bet on such a scary flop to see if anyone made a flush and would raise. The big turn bet, and then just a call from the hero. At this point he figures its possible that the hero made a flush but it's a small one. And when the hero checks the river, the villain is now convinced the hero has a flush that he isn't confident enough on how strong it is because of the check. The villain then has probably made a read at this point that since he holds the king of clubs, the hero will not have enough confidence that his flush is good enough and he believes that a massive bet will make him believe that the villain has the nuts
Have you ever considered running a solver while or having a helper run the solver while going over these situations? I think it would be cool and useful to hear your theory and strategy breakdown and compare it to what the solver is actually producing. When you were saying it’s close either way, it struck me to write you and propose this. Thanks A. Sprott
How can you run a solver in real time when it takes so long to output the solution? We actually have a call this week that is coming out with regards to use of solvers and I suggested to the caller that there are shortcut programs out there that give outputs in some sort of web output type format. Suggestions? I would be open to using one of those in one of these videos. Just dont think Pio is going to be possible.
CrushlivePoker cannot properly solve here quick enough - unless you had hands sent prior to show .. also multi way spots way more difficult to solve. Also what ranges u use impacts.. like cash monker vs typical 1/3 way too wide calling range etc is gonna impact solver so much.
In my experience large raises early are very often 99 through JJ. This is a set of 9's with no club that felt safe going for value either because he wasnt raised on the flop and/or something about hero's demeanor when calling.
@@bondjames5874 Good question, and I think we have to consider multiple mindsets for the villain. Some villains here will only do this with the nuts. They have the goods and you pay the max to see or not. There is a second, maybe higher level, but definitely online-based, mindset where you do this somewhat "balanced" between bluff and nuts, so very polarized, and since players are more likely to bluff than have the nuts, people call these bets online, and profitably (but high variance) because they tend not to be as balanced as they should be. A third mindset value bets smaller so that they might be more likely to get paid off by worse and because it makes it cheaper to bluff and reduces variance. Since 2/3 mindsets that I can think of make an overbet with the nuts, I'm going with he had the nuts. I could try to be more nuanced about that and think about what percentage of people have what mindset, but I just don't know this game well enough to attempt it.
I agree ☝🏼 💯 with your analysis on the hand. The small bet on the flop is a scared of flush Cbet. The bet bigger on turn is he felt more comfortable. And the over bet on river he felt like he had best hand 💯. Going for max value
This is KcKx or AxKc all day!!! The underbet on the flop gave it away. Villian overbets river polarizing himself on the missed flush, hoping to fold out low flushes or small two pairs- which he accomplished. You have to call here if you are the hero. I personally would have blocker-bet led out $75 on the river
That’s more of a PLO play though. Also highly unlikely he’s betting turn with 2 people still in the hand with KK. There really isn’t enough information on the player betting also. Unfortunately the caller never took any initiative in the hand so we will never know. Personally I think the guy had KJ or QJ of clubs. Can def bet small on the flop trying to induce bluffs or raises from a stronger A or Kc holding. Turn Bet says he’s strong because he’s firing back into 2 players with a pot sized bet. Firing an over bet on the river is suicidal in the end because you are only getting called by better hands if you have KK or big A with say Kc or Qc.
@@jamesmulrey6061 he could've been building a pot with the nut flush draw having K K with clubs. On the turn he bets half pot and go one guy to fold, missed his draw on the river and went for over bet to get an ace to fold. His preflop raise, according to how it was said in the video, was on the larger size. He said everyone else was raising to around 15 preflop. It could be he raised early and made it bigger hoping to represent a stronger than normal hand and get weaker holdings to fold marginal hands that may would've called 15. I know it seems weird, if ur calling 15 ur calling 20, but in these low limit games folks do weird things. Also, the preflop raise amount usually depends on the game and the players. I play in a 1/3 home game where it plays like 10/20. U make it 20 u might get raised back to 60 with J 10 os just because they wanna play for a big pot and see if ur gonna play for real money. I was closing the action on 20 preflop raise with kings, raise it to 100, and seven players called without one second of thought. I'm just saying some games are different than others. I also think in some of these weaker games a more straight forward approach works way better than any advanced strategy. Some folks ain't there to win, they are there to drink beer, play cards, and socialize. To them losing 2500 is an expensive way to play golf, or go fishing, or whichever hobbies they could other wise have. They have the money to lose. And bluffing these guys is very difficult because 1600 on the river is like u dropping a quarter. It doesn't affect their lives and will call with almost any pair because they think ur bluffing and to them it would hurt their tough guy image.
The one thing I would point out is that by check calling turn, Hero caps his range, where he doesn't have a flush, since he didn't check-raise. If this is a rec I fold, if this is a thinking player or a pro, I lean towards a call, but I would feel more comfortable calling if I have seen villain turn the nut flush blocker into a bluff before.
Jim Hammond highly unlikely he’s turning big Aces into a bluff. He’d only be getting called by better hands and the passive way this guy played screams weak A or busted flush draw. Neither of those hands would be making a call there. Nowadays the over bet is being overused when people have it. Unfortunately this guy misplayed his hand never found out where he was.
If villain is good enough to know he could GTO overbet bluff with the king of clubs, he’s probably good enough to know random live player hero ain’t folding enough to make it profitable.
I lead out when I need protection on hands such as two pair on a connected board or even top pair that needs protection. Unfortunately I feel like I suck out more often because of my tendencies to protect, and sometimes am drawing completely dead against made hands who check or play passively. I’m still new to poker but I feel like my aggressive plays comes out on top I. The long run something to the tune of 70/30 win/loss I really don’t know but that’s what I feel
i like the flat pre because you have the chance to win a bigger pot for minimal investment...if you raise you are risking a lot to win a small pot, and you may get 4-bet and be forced to fold as well.
Not many flushes in range that opens 7x preflop. Could be thin value with AxKc. The way hero played the hand, villain can bet any amount he wants because hero seems some what capped.
I think you have to give the guy credit for a big hand there. The turn bet of basically pot into 2 players is meant to target players with either an A thinking their hand is good or the Kc or Qc for the draw. Most likely he’s got KcJc or QJ there. Betting almost 2x pot there after the way he bet the flop and turn just looks incredibly strong. Caller misplayed his hand by being so passive anyways. You have to assume the villain in the hand would’ve bet a big A or set for somewhere around half pot value thinking he was good. He also didn’t put the hero on a busted draw. I mean you can really only make that play with essentially the nuts. Just my opinion. Also easier to take a 120 dollar loss and look for better spots than to call off almost half stack when everything is saying the guy has it.
@@Gos1234567 thank you for the compliment. I just don’t see calling marginally unless you know the guy is a complete lunatic and you have an extremely specific read.
@@jamesmulrey6061 Yes!!This has become my basic strategy after calling too much because of “possible bluffs in their range,I’m blocking value etc” when in reality big bets are nearly always value.
@@Gos1234567 over simplification is think of a kid trying to tell a story. If the story makes sense then believe them but if Humpty Dumpty is having breakfast with Lil Bo Peep then they are probably full of shit
Utg assumes that hero has one pair Ax because the hand was played passively. I find it hard to believe that the nut flush (KQ,KJ) would bet small on flop and start bombing turn and river (also if he want to get called, a pot size bet would make more sense). Looks like Kings with Kc or AxKc because of the 7x open from EP. He can also discount the sets and small flushes because he didnt get raised on the flop on a small bet so it can make some sense... I wound make the crying call...
I don't think this river spot is necessarily underbluffed at 1/3. Really depends on player profile. While I agree that if the guy has a more normal aggression factor it's almost 100% nutted, a slightly clueless super aggro player could very well bluff it (the guys that always bet when they're checked to, etc.) Bart is a helluva lot smarter than me but that's just my experience.
Its the nutz or nuthn. I think w his sizing on the river he def have Kc as a bluff in bis range. What hands is he targeting w for value??? Hed bet no more than pot w a flush. Plus by the river he is heads up. Better chance for a bluff to get thru
That’s what the overbet represents, but I think it’s pretty unlikely the Villain had the nuts. Villain 100% knew that the Hero didn’t have the nuts, so Villain could turn basically any value hand into a bluff here and have a ton of fold equity.
You say you have never seen anyone bluff that spot with KK with the K of clubs... Well... I turn KK with the nut flush blocker into a bluff on monotone Ahigh boards often and I will start betting it small on the first street and gruadately size up because as you get called on the first street or even 2 it will become obvious that you can most likely not win at showdown. It may be an underbluffed spot, but I am definitely not someone to underbluff it :)
Should we even have a flat calling range from the SB? Jonathan Little would say you only want to 3bet or fold from the SB unless it's folded around to you, then you can have a limping and raising range.
There must be some holdings at equilibrium that are flatted in the SB at this stack depth played as an overcall to an EP open and a MP1 flat. This very well might be one of the best candidates. If you want to simplify your strategy, sure 3 bet or fold is fine. Bart
Interesting comment by Bart @19:40 . I play a lot of 2/5 NL, 1/3 NL, and 5/5/10 NL, and specifically at the 1/3 to 2/5 levels, I see aggressive players take this bet line with hands like KcKx or QcQx ALL THE TIME. Especially when they put their opponent on some type of Ax holding. It's a polarized bet that's designed to elicit a fold by Ax and 2p hands. Clearly this caller's opponent had a very good idea of what the hero's range was here, and exploited it. OR he simply said he had KK with Kc to try and put the hero on tilt. Either scenario is possible, but to say the former scenario is horseshit is really, really bad advice, IMO.
With respect to Bart's greater live experience, he's simply wrong to claim the caller is "never" ahead. There's clearly AxKc and KxKc in the villain's range. But there's also AA 99 44 and maybe 2x2c or 7x7c in his range. A made flush seems the least likely from a villain who raised so large preflop. So a fold here is definitely understandable.
I disagree KK w k of clubs is a possibility... you can’t just say bc you’ve never seen it or bc you wouldn’t do it... there are certain tight aggressive players that most certainly will use their image to get folds and the nut flush blocker is always the most natural of bluffs. Just because KK has show down value doesn’t matter he knows once the A comes 3 way he’s not good. I still probably don’t call either way. This has to be a live reads player dependent call.
Cousin Jimmy Farha agree if he had naked KK.. but w Kc it’s the most natural semi bluff hand. Also the larger opening size utg1 seems like a premium. The only premiums that makes sense is KQcc, KK w Kc, and AA that probably doesn’t go so big on river and is blocked. Idk if people aren’t bluffing and semi bluffing in the most obvious of spot w the nut flush blocker then no river call is ever profitable and we should be exploitively folding to 100% of river over bets.
Cousin Jimmy Farha ya I can agree it’s probably not a call.. sometimes your opponent beats you into the pot and you just have to fold. I agree that people do spaz pre w weird hands. It’s also possible villain had no positional awareness and saw KQo and thought premium.
Why check after the turn? Giving him a free chance for another club. If he re-raises, he probably has the flush. Won't a small bet on the turn encourage a large reraise if he has the flush & a call if he's on a draw?
I would say hand is either ma kJ kt clubs or kq offsuit always ....a lot of players underbet flops ans overbet turns and river with the nuts....unless u have some other read that is an easy fold
The guy open from EP for 7x, which the caller said was an unusually high open. I think this condenses his opening raging by quite a bit. A lot of the suited connectors from a standard sized open just won't be in this hand. Do you even open AA for an unusually large open? Maybe if you're getting a lot of multiway pots, but probably not otherwise. Jacks, or Tens, or maybe Nines or Queens would go with the big open. I really doubt he's opening 56s or similar like this even KQs or AKs would be odd to open like this. AKo or AQo if you're getting to many multiway pots would seem more plausible. So, with that said, I think the Hero could certainly be beat (haven't watched the ending yet), but I think the chance he's bluffing is higher than Bart thinks it is.
He certainly could be bluffing my point was that it wasnt with specifically Kc Kx. And what some in the comments to seem to quite grasp is that this is a common pattern with live players in them NOT realizing that Kc Kx is the same as Kc Qh in this given spot.
Villain had at least K of Clubs, likely with A or another K....His down bet of $15 on the Flop was to get indication from a weak flopped flush and to see a cheap turn. Villain would have made a much bigger bet on the turn to protect a set. The Hero missed check-raising on the Turn and really underplayed his 2 Pair...which inspired the Villain to a River jam with a Nut Flush Blocker. Just my 2 cents....
He Flats ... how about calls ? What’s the definition of Doing something crazy when the options are check or bet. By definition one of those must be crazy. Only 2 choices and he doesn’t want to do something crazy so one of the options has to be crazy. Still trying to figure out which it is
This makes perfect sense to have KK with k of clubs he bet 25% pot on flop a meager 15$ then the pots 105 and turns a brick and he bombs for almost pot. It honestly does make sense. He bombed turn and said if i get 1 of them to fold im bombing river because if hero had a flush there hes definitely raising turn lol he capped himself at a max 2 pair.
This is an interesting hand. This hand illustrates why folding A4s from the SB is smart. Villain’s story doesn’t check out to me. Standard raise from middle position into a 3 club flop, bet 25% pot, bet 50% pot on a bricked turn, then overbet a bricked river? I would not flop a flush and try to trap vs 2 callers from middle position, nor would I overbet a nutted hand here. Seems like villain had a busted flush draw, a set, or a mediocre flush.
am i the only one who likes a X/R on the flop? with a small cbet and a call in front, i think our hand plays great against those ranges and x/r'ing is more profitable than calling
Better to just fold a potential flush, or lead out repping the flush. If he calls he probably has it. Else check call the flop then lead out on the turn for protection so you see the river. There is no way he will think you have with the line Hero took. Check fold the river else Hero is just lighting money on fire. IMHO.
Exactly the amount of comments saying V had KKc or A-raghere are ridiculous and after a 20 min breakdown,lol what are these people like when having to make decisions in real time?Gives me a lot of hope for overbetting value hands
Because it wouldn't make sense to overbet the river with this holding. The overbet would only get called by hands that beat it, unless specifically turning that hand into a bluff, which also wouldn't make sense.
I disagree with ur statement about the villain having A K with king of clubs, or even KK or QQ with king of clubs. The villain was the preflop aggressor, and leads for a bet on the flop, then because he wasn't raised and didn't feel as if anyone else had much he bumped his bet to 90 on the turn when a club didn't come. One guy folded to this bet leaving one opponent that he felt was on a club draw or maybe pair of aces, so he bets big on the river trying to blow hero off of his hand, because he knows hero won't call with one pair hands. I am nowhere near the level of player u are, nor will I ever be. I appreciate ur insight into poker and learning from ur perspectives. I could be wrong in this situation, but I feel this way because of the types of games I have played in in the past which is mostly low limit home games. I wish there was a way I could have u come to the games I played in a bit and have u experience some of it because the logic behind these players decisions is abnormal compared to what u say u have played against. An example of what I mean; most of the players are older players that are rocks. They don't raise much unless they have monster hands preflop, and do tons of calling. Then they see a winning player in the game win a hand with 5 6 suited, they don't ask why this player played the hand the way they did, they just play it with no regard to preflop betting or position. I remember a guy calling 500 preflop out of position against three other players with 67 of spades and flopping spades to win the hand. This guy thinks he made the right choice but he should've have folded to the first raise, then it reraised by another player and he calls this three bet with two other players behind only for one of them to re-re-raise all in and because at this point so much money is in the middle he ain't folding. If there was only a way for u to play this games for a few weeks and evaluate some play from it I think it would give u a perspective similar to mine. Again, I am not a pro. U are the pro. I respect ur knowledge of the game a ton. But to say this guy couldn't have had ace with a king or queen of clubs or two kings with the king of clubs Imo is slightly off target. I think the hero should've called the over bet on the river. Of course there are things we as listeners don't have privy to, such as the villains body language or verbal cues. He may give away some info that we can't experience.
I don't think villain was lying about having KcKx, having an underpair is basically irrelevant on this kind of board, he recognized it was almost never good in a multiway pot so he turned it into a bluff. This is a good spot to make a herocall since an early position open should have a lot of offsuit broadways and pocket pairs and very few suited hands especially with the Ac on the flop blocking those even further, so he's much more likely to have one club than two. However hero had a terrible hand to do it with no club blocker, any pair + high club hand like AxJc is infinitely better here. As Bart says, it's probably pretty close :)
Honestly, if villain really had KcKx, I think this line is kind of genius. Literally the only hand that a thinking player is likely to call the river with, after taking the turn action in particular into account, is QJcc - because you block both KQcc and KJcc. And everyone _knows_ this spot is underbluffed live... so I know what Doug Polk would tell you to do with _that_ info :-D
@@alistairwillock7266 I really like his line too. It makes perfect sense to check or bet small with his marginal/showdown value hands (eg a good ace with no club), and bet big with all his one club hands, which are both flush draws and flush blockers. An underpair with a club actually has very little showdown value multiway on an ace high board, so it's actually a bluff as it can get all the Ax to fold. He can still run into any baby flush, not just QJcc (I don't see why hero wouldn't have 56cc or something here), but yes having a club blocker reduces the number of flush combos you can face significantly, so does the Ac being on the board blocking all AXcc which is a big chunk of suited hands that everybody plays.
I certainly have seen players bluff w/ the K of clubs here. Play it like a flopped flush - maybe a smaller flush afraid of a club. Once he bets flop and gets called, he has to know KK or whatever is no good. He knows you don't have the nut flush (not that players at this level fold any flush). Without any player specific knowledge, I'd only continue on the flop w/ 2pr+ and just call down unless another club comes.
Why not he just had the nuts KQ clubs? He's hoping opponent has smaller flush. As far as the 7x opening, maybe the guy was just raising the stakes. The blinds are somewhat irrelevant at that point. I would have to know some history of the game before I made a judgement.
The 2 was MUCH different than the flop. The odds changed dramatically. I would NOT say it was the same. Villain had two cards to hit a club and no he has one. No, not the same.
Silliest concept - “would fold here without a club in my hand”... having a club would be more of a reason to fold. We want our opponent to have every off suit combo with a club which would be the most commonly hand used to bluff with. Such a commonly confused/ wrong concept when bluff catching .
We decide calling or folding here based on how high up we are in our range .. if we are flatting A4s here then we likely also have 3 combos A9s, 2 A7s...3 of 99 , 3 of 44 .. we also flat Sb with every flush combo , and range should be almost solely condensed to suited hands ...where villain has all the off suit.. so we have KQcc KJcc KTcc K9cc JTcc QJc J9cc T9cc 98cc 87cc.. maybe 67cc? We then have 2 combos each (assuming we 3b at 33% here) of AJs ATs ... 3 combos A8s, A6s.. 1.5 or A5s , A3sx3 , 2.A2s.. (being generous obv).. 16.5 combos worse Ax value , 11combos of flushes , assuming we always xC xC x ..11combos of sets / better 2p.. 16.5 worse , 22better .. so come river we are in no way obligated to call A4s here to meet MDF vs overbet .. would call probably flushes Only .. also villain should never overbet A9s so even 44 can fold.. probably don’t want to have a 9 in our range either when calling since I think some of his absolute best non club bluff combos would contain a 9 or 4 in it.. we definitely want to completely unblock broadway club combos so It we somehow do have off suit AxKc for argument sake it would be awful to hero since we want villain to have every KcQx KcJx QcJx QcTx ..
Yes and no. Depends on the club in your hand also depends on your opponent and where you put them in terms of ability and range. I mean theoretically you are correct but depending on the player and situation it can change. Still gotta give the guy credit for the flush and move on. Caller made too many mistakes in the hand and calling off there just isn’t value in making that particular call in the long run
It's never a bluff when u're opponent said KK with the Kc and doesn't show this hand cause it's a really hard bluff to pull in this particular situation (vilain saying u don't have it so i bet big in a way :) u can play a lot of big flushes this way so his comment makes no sense).
I agree, at least with a thinking player. CBET flop to see opponents strength, realizes he is probably no good to a pair of aces since no reraise, sizes up on turn as a semi bluff with nut blocker, again no reraise which still indicates a good ace/baby flush at max, polarizes river with nut blocker again knowing he has showed strength the whole time, so only getting called by flushes in most scenarios. Think the overbet on river was to give him a little more fold equity against trips possibly?
This doesn’t really answer the topic question . Check call, check call ,check fold on river and not knowing the opponents hand doesn’t really cover what to do
AA or 99 could have also played it this way... betting small on a flush board flop and then when further streets appear safe for a one card flush, this could have been the line of play. It was a heavily polarizing bet... and folding a 2 pair is a fair decision
I've seen more live hands than anyone and literally no one turns KcKx into a bluff in this spot. It's horseshit. - Bart Hanson 🤣 😂 🤣 also, KcKx is identical to KcQx in this spot.
Even I have a set i'm gotta lay that hand down in the river. $400 post size bet at the river is not a bluff. Dam villain slow playing the nut hopping you catch a cold or something
The 7x open really hints at a hand like KK, much more than KQcc or something like that. I think I would've called. Plus you're on the top of your range here, if you fold here you're way overfolding, imho. It's way too easy for villain to push you out of the hand with just a blocker to the nuts.
I’ve been playing since ‘02(both live and online) and the biggest realized flaw in my game was/is the assumption that people are rational or is a “thinking” player.
I’ve seen all sorts of ridiculous things through the years that it’s hard to gauge without being in the situation especially in a $1/$3.
I disagree that KK can be ruled out, as well as any other hand that was targeting an “A”. It’s not like hero was showing any sign of a nutted hand during any of the streets. Unless “V” had a hand like 99, or any info. on hero’s image at the table, it’s hard to discount a second best hand like broadway PP with a club trying to get a fold. Which hand was villain raising 7x from UTG1 and also look for value OTR...from hero’s 2nd best hand that could check/call?
When one faces a scared opponent, the over-bet is the solution. It worked!
That was my call exactly!
Thinking about it, pocket kings with a club could make a lot of sense. The unusually big pre-flop raise signals a premium hand, and then a tiny feeler bet on such a scary flop to see if anyone made a flush and would raise. The big turn bet, and then just a call from the hero. At this point he figures its possible that the hero made a flush but it's a small one. And when the hero checks the river, the villain is now convinced the hero has a flush that he isn't confident enough on how strong it is because of the check. The villain then has probably made a read at this point that since he holds the king of clubs, the hero will not have enough confidence that his flush is good enough and he believes that a massive bet will make him believe that the villain has the nuts
Have you ever considered running a solver while or having a helper run the solver while going over these situations? I think it would be cool and useful to hear your theory and strategy breakdown and compare it to what the solver is actually producing. When you were saying it’s close either way, it struck me to write you and propose this.
Thanks
A. Sprott
How can you run a solver in real time when it takes so long to output the solution? We actually have a call this week that is coming out with regards to use of solvers and I suggested to the caller that there are shortcut programs out there that give outputs in some sort of web output type format. Suggestions? I would be open to using one of those in one of these videos. Just dont think Pio is going to be possible.
CrushlivePoker cannot properly solve here quick enough - unless you had hands sent prior to show .. also multi way spots way more difficult to solve. Also what ranges u use impacts.. like cash monker vs typical 1/3 way too wide calling range etc is gonna impact solver so much.
In my experience large raises early are very often 99 through JJ. This is a set of 9's with no club that felt safe going for value either because he wasnt raised on the flop and/or something about hero's demeanor when calling.
why would he think the passive small blind would call a large overbet?
@@bondjames5874 Good question, and I think we have to consider multiple mindsets for the villain. Some villains here will only do this with the nuts. They have the goods and you pay the max to see or not. There is a second, maybe higher level, but definitely online-based, mindset where you do this somewhat "balanced" between bluff and nuts, so very polarized, and since players are more likely to bluff than have the nuts, people call these bets online, and profitably (but high variance) because they tend not to be as balanced as they should be. A third mindset value bets smaller so that they might be more likely to get paid off by worse and because it makes it cheaper to bluff and reduces variance. Since 2/3 mindsets that I can think of make an overbet with the nuts, I'm going with he had the nuts. I could try to be more nuanced about that and think about what percentage of people have what mindset, but I just don't know this game well enough to attempt it.
I agree ☝🏼 💯 with your analysis on the hand. The small bet on the flop is a scared of flush Cbet. The bet bigger on turn is he felt more comfortable. And the over bet on river he felt like he had best hand 💯. Going for max value
I agree 💯 he had a SET.
This is KcKx or AxKc all day!!! The underbet on the flop gave it away. Villian overbets river polarizing himself on the missed flush, hoping to fold out low flushes or small two pairs- which he accomplished. You have to call here if you are the hero. I personally would have blocker-bet led out $75 on the river
Maybe a small bet could be 3 9s to get people to stay or aces to raise. I usually call overbets with good hands but it doesn't always work out.
Odds of flopping a flush; 100:1. Odds of over-bet bluffing the river in 2020: depends. But much more likely
You are def off. Live poker. Mid and low stakes. You make a killing over folding rivers. People don’t bluff
Always enjoy the videos, Bart. Def felt like KK with a club the whole time to me. Overbet was to fold out stubborn AJ/AQ?
That’s more of a PLO play though. Also highly unlikely he’s betting turn with 2 people still in the hand with KK. There really isn’t enough information on the player betting also. Unfortunately the caller never took any initiative in the hand so we will never know. Personally I think the guy had KJ or QJ of clubs. Can def bet small on the flop trying to induce bluffs or raises from a stronger A or Kc holding. Turn Bet says he’s strong because he’s firing back into 2 players with a pot sized bet. Firing an over bet on the river is suicidal in the end because you are only getting called by better hands if you have KK or big A with say Kc or Qc.
@@jamesmulrey6061 he could've been building a pot with the nut flush draw having K K with clubs. On the turn he bets half pot and go one guy to fold, missed his draw on the river and went for over bet to get an ace to fold. His preflop raise, according to how it was said in the video, was on the larger size. He said everyone else was raising to around 15 preflop. It could be he raised early and made it bigger hoping to represent a stronger than normal hand and get weaker holdings to fold marginal hands that may would've called 15. I know it seems weird, if ur calling 15 ur calling 20, but in these low limit games folks do weird things.
Also, the preflop raise amount usually depends on the game and the players. I play in a 1/3 home game where it plays like 10/20. U make it 20 u might get raised back to 60 with J 10 os just because they wanna play for a big pot and see if ur gonna play for real money. I was closing the action on 20 preflop raise with kings, raise it to 100, and seven players called without one second of thought.
I'm just saying some games are different than others. I also think in some of these weaker games a more straight forward approach works way better than any advanced strategy. Some folks ain't there to win, they are there to drink beer, play cards, and socialize. To them losing 2500 is an expensive way to play golf, or go fishing, or whichever hobbies they could other wise have. They have the money to lose. And bluffing these guys is very difficult because 1600 on the river is like u dropping a quarter. It doesn't affect their lives and will call with almost any pair because they think ur bluffing and to them it would hurt their tough guy image.
The one thing I would point out is that by check calling turn, Hero caps his range, where he doesn't have a flush, since he didn't check-raise. If this is a rec I fold, if this is a thinking player or a pro, I lean towards a call, but I would feel more comfortable calling if I have seen villain turn the nut flush blocker into a bluff before.
Why would you checkraise a baby flush? Sounds like a huge overplay.
@@FefeLeVrai Yes, because you have to protect your hand. Standard check-raise spot. Even on the flop.
Nut flush would’ve went for value. Overbet targeting Ax to fold
Lol ... optimistic to think people are ever bluffing here. Should they polarize here, sure - no one does.
They have it here almost everytime
Agree completely...he wanted a fold not a call...guy had AK, AQ, AJ with a club...
Jim Hammond or he recognizes KQcc unblocks every set / 2p combo and can get max
Jim Hammond highly unlikely he’s turning big Aces into a bluff. He’d only be getting called by better hands and the passive way this guy played screams weak A or busted flush draw. Neither of those hands would be making a call there. Nowadays the over bet is being overused when people have it. Unfortunately this guy misplayed his hand never found out where he was.
If villain is good enough to know he could GTO overbet bluff with the king of clubs, he’s probably good enough to know random live player hero ain’t folding enough to make it profitable.
DING!
I lead out when I need protection on hands such as two pair on a connected board or even top pair that needs protection. Unfortunately I feel like I suck out more often because of my tendencies to protect, and sometimes am drawing completely dead against made hands who check or play passively. I’m still new to poker but I feel like my aggressive plays comes out on top I. The long run something to the tune of 70/30 win/loss I really don’t know but that’s what I feel
i like the flat pre because you have the chance to win a bigger pot for minimal investment...if you raise you are risking a lot to win a small pot, and you may get 4-bet and be forced to fold as well.
Not many flushes in range that opens 7x preflop. Could be thin value with AxKc. The way hero played the hand, villain can bet any amount he wants because hero seems some what capped.
I think you have to give the guy credit for a big hand there. The turn bet of basically pot into 2 players is meant to target players with either an A thinking their hand is good or the Kc or Qc for the draw. Most likely he’s got KcJc or QJ there. Betting almost 2x pot there after the way he bet the flop and turn just looks incredibly strong. Caller misplayed his hand by being so passive anyways. You have to assume the villain in the hand would’ve bet a big A or set for somewhere around half pot value thinking he was good. He also didn’t put the hero on a busted draw. I mean you can really only make that play with essentially the nuts. Just my opinion. Also easier to take a 120 dollar loss and look for better spots than to call off almost half stack when everything is saying the guy has it.
You seem to be the only decent player in the comments,the amount of people saying it must be KKc or Ax has me baffled,has everyone gone mad???
@@Gos1234567 thank you for the compliment. I just don’t see calling marginally unless you know the guy is a complete lunatic and you have an extremely specific read.
@@jamesmulrey6061 Yes!!This has become my basic strategy after calling too much because of “possible bluffs in their range,I’m blocking value etc” when in reality big bets are nearly always value.
@@Gos1234567 over simplification is think of a kid trying to tell a story. If the story makes sense then believe them but if Humpty Dumpty is having breakfast with Lil Bo Peep then they are probably full of shit
Hero should have bet out. Got info. The rest is a casualty of that.
Anyone else like the all.of these videos immediately before they even start??!?!? Cuuuuuuuuz.... I DO!!! CLP 4 LIFE!!!
Utg assumes that hero has one pair Ax because the hand was played passively. I find it hard to believe that the nut flush (KQ,KJ) would bet small on flop and start bombing turn and river (also if he want to get called, a pot size bet would make more sense). Looks like Kings with Kc or AxKc because of the 7x open from EP. He can also discount the sets and small flushes because he didnt get raised on the flop on a small bet so it can make some sense... I wound make the crying call...
I don't think this river spot is necessarily underbluffed at 1/3. Really depends on player profile. While I agree that if the guy has a more normal aggression factor it's almost 100% nutted, a slightly clueless super aggro player could very well bluff it (the guys that always bet when they're checked to, etc.)
Bart is a helluva lot smarter than me but that's just my experience.
Incredible analysis on this hand, loved it.
Its the nutz or nuthn. I think w his sizing on the river he def have Kc as a bluff in bis range. What hands is he targeting w for value??? Hed bet no more than pot w a flush. Plus by the river he is heads up. Better chance for a bluff to get thru
That’s what the overbet represents, but I think it’s pretty unlikely the Villain had the nuts. Villain 100% knew that the Hero didn’t have the nuts, so Villain could turn basically any value hand into a bluff here and have a ton of fold equity.
You say you have never seen anyone bluff that spot with KK with the K of clubs... Well... I turn KK with the nut flush blocker into a bluff on monotone Ahigh boards often and I will start betting it small on the first street and gruadately size up because as you get called on the first street or even 2 it will become obvious that you can most likely not win at showdown. It may be an underbluffed spot, but I am definitely not someone to underbluff it :)
Should we even have a flat calling range from the SB? Jonathan Little would say you only want to 3bet or fold from the SB unless it's folded around to you, then you can have a limping and raising range.
There must be some holdings at equilibrium that are flatted in the SB at this stack depth played as an overcall to an EP open and a MP1 flat. This very well might be one of the best candidates. If you want to simplify your strategy, sure 3 bet or fold is fine. Bart
@@CrushlivePoker not against a 7x open
Interesting comment by Bart @19:40 . I play a lot of 2/5 NL, 1/3 NL, and 5/5/10 NL, and specifically at the 1/3 to 2/5 levels, I see aggressive players take this bet line with hands like KcKx or QcQx ALL THE TIME. Especially when they put their opponent on some type of Ax holding. It's a polarized bet that's designed to elicit a fold by Ax and 2p hands. Clearly this caller's opponent had a very good idea of what the hero's range was here, and exploited it. OR he simply said he had KK with Kc to try and put the hero on tilt. Either scenario is possible, but to say the former scenario is horseshit is really, really bad advice, IMO.
With respect to Bart's greater live experience, he's simply wrong to claim the caller is "never" ahead. There's clearly AxKc and KxKc in the villain's range. But there's also AA 99 44 and maybe 2x2c or 7x7c in his range. A made flush seems the least likely from a villain who raised so large preflop. So a fold here is definitely understandable.
I disagree KK w k of clubs is a possibility... you can’t just say bc you’ve never seen it or bc you wouldn’t do it... there are certain tight aggressive players that most certainly will use their image to get folds and the nut flush blocker is always the most natural of bluffs. Just because KK has show down value doesn’t matter he knows once the A comes 3 way he’s not good. I still probably don’t call either way. This has to be a live reads player dependent call.
Cousin Jimmy Farha agree if he had naked KK.. but w Kc it’s the most natural semi bluff hand. Also the larger opening size utg1 seems like a premium. The only premiums that makes sense is KQcc, KK w Kc, and AA that probably doesn’t go so big on river and is blocked. Idk if people aren’t bluffing and semi bluffing in the most obvious of spot w the nut flush blocker then no river call is ever profitable and we should be exploitively folding to 100% of river over bets.
Cousin Jimmy Farha ya I can agree it’s probably not a call.. sometimes your opponent beats you into the pot and you just have to fold. I agree that people do spaz pre w weird hands. It’s also possible villain had no positional awareness and saw KQo and thought premium.
Why check after the turn? Giving him a free chance for another club. If he re-raises, he probably has the flush. Won't a small bet on the turn encourage a large reraise if he has the flush & a call if he's on a draw?
I would say hand is either ma kJ kt clubs or kq offsuit always ....a lot of players underbet flops ans overbet turns and river with the nuts....unless u have some other read that is an easy fold
The guy open from EP for 7x, which the caller said was an unusually high open. I think this condenses his opening raging by quite a bit. A lot of the suited connectors from a standard sized open just won't be in this hand. Do you even open AA for an unusually large open? Maybe if you're getting a lot of multiway pots, but probably not otherwise. Jacks, or Tens, or maybe Nines or Queens would go with the big open. I really doubt he's opening 56s or similar like this even KQs or AKs would be odd to open like this. AKo or AQo if you're getting to many multiway pots would seem more plausible. So, with that said, I think the Hero could certainly be beat (haven't watched the ending yet), but I think the chance he's bluffing is higher than Bart thinks it is.
He certainly could be bluffing my point was that it wasnt with specifically Kc Kx. And what some in the comments to seem to quite grasp is that this is a common pattern with live players in them NOT realizing that Kc Kx is the same as Kc Qh in this given spot.
Kings with the king of clubs makes a ton of sense. V obviously knowing he had to go for it on river. What other hand is opening 7x? Not KQ.
KKcx AA and 99 are the only hands I would put him on with this line.
Don't forget AxKc
KKc only works if he’s a good player tho
If has aces or 99 doesn’t work cause he’s only getting called by better
Or he is just over betting to get called by an ace who thinks he’s bluffing but like who does that in 1/3
AQ with queen of club. Gotta be something like that all day long
Villain had at least K of Clubs, likely with A or another K....His down bet of $15 on the Flop was to get indication from a weak flopped flush and to see a cheap turn. Villain would have made a much bigger bet on the turn to protect a set. The Hero missed check-raising on the Turn and really underplayed his 2 Pair...which inspired the Villain to a River jam with a Nut Flush Blocker. Just my 2 cents....
He Flats ... how about calls ?
What’s the definition of Doing something crazy when the options are check or bet. By definition one of those must be crazy. Only 2 choices and he doesn’t want to do something crazy so one of the options has to be crazy.
Still trying to figure out which it is
This makes perfect sense to have KK with k of clubs he bet 25% pot on flop a meager 15$ then the pots 105 and turns a brick and he bombs for almost pot. It honestly does make sense. He bombed turn and said if i get 1 of them to fold im bombing river because if hero had a flush there hes definitely raising turn lol he capped himself at a max 2 pair.
This is an interesting hand.
This hand illustrates why folding A4s from the SB is smart.
Villain’s story doesn’t check out to me. Standard raise from middle position into a 3 club flop, bet 25% pot, bet 50% pot on a bricked turn, then overbet a bricked river? I would not flop a flush and try to trap vs 2 callers from middle position, nor would I overbet a nutted hand here.
Seems like villain had a busted flush draw, a set, or a mediocre flush.
Hero’s hand is unlikely to be good here but villain is very unlikely to actually have the hand he is representing.
Love the thumbnail!
am i the only one who likes a X/R on the flop? with a small cbet and a call in front, i think our hand plays great against those ranges and x/r'ing is more profitable than calling
Better to just fold a potential flush, or lead out repping the flush. If he calls he probably has it. Else check call the flop then lead out on the turn for protection so you see the river. There is no way he will think you have with the line Hero took. Check fold the river else Hero is just lighting money on fire. IMHO.
A K with the King of clubs... preflop plus overbet
Talk about over analyzing a 1/3 hand. He obviously had the nuts.
Exactly the amount of comments saying V had KKc or A-raghere are ridiculous and after a 20 min breakdown,lol what are these people like when having to make decisions in real time?Gives me a lot of hope for overbetting value hands
I would never play the nuts like this. It doesn’t make sense. That said Villain’s hand is probably good vs 2 pair here.
I would think he has the Kc at a min and can get away with the larger bet. I would fold river too and look for a better spot. Tough hand.
Why does no one think AK with the K of clubs. Top pair top kicker with nut flush draw. Weird bet on flop though
Because it wouldn't make sense to overbet the river with this holding. The overbet would only get called by hands that beat it, unless specifically turning that hand into a bluff, which also wouldn't make sense.
It's pretty easy to talk about a hand when you know the cards.
Exactly. Bart should start analyzing hands that haven’t happened yet, that would be much more valid.
ramon rodriguez // thats why a hand is played before the cards are revealed!
It's not easy to be a winning poker player for decades. This dude is an expert, and this channel is invaluable.
Billy Bob // :o)
I disagree with ur statement about the villain having A K with king of clubs, or even KK or QQ with king of clubs.
The villain was the preflop aggressor, and leads for a bet on the flop, then because he wasn't raised and didn't feel as if anyone else had much he bumped his bet to 90 on the turn when a club didn't come. One guy folded to this bet leaving one opponent that he felt was on a club draw or maybe pair of aces, so he bets big on the river trying to blow hero off of his hand, because he knows hero won't call with one pair hands.
I am nowhere near the level of player u are, nor will I ever be. I appreciate ur insight into poker and learning from ur perspectives. I could be wrong in this situation, but I feel this way because of the types of games I have played in in the past which is mostly low limit home games. I wish there was a way I could have u come to the games I played in a bit and have u experience some of it because the logic behind these players decisions is abnormal compared to what u say u have played against.
An example of what I mean; most of the players are older players that are rocks. They don't raise much unless they have monster hands preflop, and do tons of calling. Then they see a winning player in the game win a hand with 5 6 suited, they don't ask why this player played the hand the way they did, they just play it with no regard to preflop betting or position. I remember a guy calling 500 preflop out of position against three other players with 67 of spades and flopping spades to win the hand. This guy thinks he made the right choice but he should've have folded to the first raise, then it reraised by another player and he calls this three bet with two other players behind only for one of them to re-re-raise all in and because at this point so much money is in the middle he ain't folding.
If there was only a way for u to play this games for a few weeks and evaluate some play from it I think it would give u a perspective similar to mine. Again, I am not a pro. U are the pro. I respect ur knowledge of the game a ton. But to say this guy couldn't have had ace with a king or queen of clubs or two kings with the king of clubs Imo is slightly off target. I think the hero should've called the over bet on the river. Of course there are things we as listeners don't have privy to, such as the villains body language or verbal cues. He may give away some info that we can't experience.
If I'm villain, I never have it here. If I'm hero, villain always has it here.
I don't think villain was lying about having KcKx, having an underpair is basically irrelevant on this kind of board, he recognized it was almost never good in a multiway pot so he turned it into a bluff. This is a good spot to make a herocall since an early position open should have a lot of offsuit broadways and pocket pairs and very few suited hands especially with the Ac on the flop blocking those even further, so he's much more likely to have one club than two. However hero had a terrible hand to do it with no club blocker, any pair + high club hand like AxJc is infinitely better here. As Bart says, it's probably pretty close :)
Honestly, if villain really had KcKx, I think this line is kind of genius. Literally the only hand that a thinking player is likely to call the river with, after taking the turn action in particular into account, is QJcc - because you block both KQcc and KJcc. And everyone _knows_ this spot is underbluffed live... so I know what Doug Polk would tell you to do with _that_ info :-D
@@alistairwillock7266 I really like his line too. It makes perfect sense to check or bet small with his marginal/showdown value hands (eg a good ace with no club), and bet big with all his one club hands, which are both flush draws and flush blockers. An underpair with a club actually has very little showdown value multiway on an ace high board, so it's actually a bluff as it can get all the Ax to fold. He can still run into any baby flush, not just QJcc (I don't see why hero wouldn't have 56cc or something here), but yes having a club blocker reduces the number of flush combos you can face significantly, so does the Ac being on the board blocking all AXcc which is a big chunk of suited hands that everybody plays.
Sometimes, it's just a goodazz bluff. But like Bart, I DOUBT IT.
I certainly have seen players bluff w/ the K of clubs here. Play it like a flopped flush - maybe a smaller flush afraid of a club. Once he bets flop and gets called, he has to know KK or whatever is no good. He knows you don't have the nut flush (not that players at this level fold any flush). Without any player specific knowledge, I'd only continue on the flop w/ 2pr+ and just call down unless another club comes.
@Cousin Jimmy Farha :-)
Ace with a Broadway club is what I put him on.
Why not he just had the nuts KQ clubs? He's hoping opponent has smaller flush. As far as the 7x opening, maybe the guy was just raising the stakes. The blinds are somewhat irrelevant at that point. I would have to know some history of the game before I made a judgement.
My guess is he had AK or AQ and was getting you off the hand. At this stage if he had one club was irrelevant.
Great video as always Bart! Thanks!
doze grey and black cans; a no go.
I think he would have gotten more information had he led out after the flop for 25
He had the check/call button on and it misclicked...maybe the villan was valuebluffing with KK
The 2 was MUCH different than the flop. The odds changed dramatically. I would NOT say it was the same. Villain had two cards to hit a club and no he has one. No, not the same.
Why does his hair change
Gray hair
The intro video is a stock recording
I would have raised to pot after the flop with 2 pair.
I think bro lost hair in between the intro and the hand react 😂😂😂
Silliest concept - “would fold here without a club in my hand”... having a club would be more of a reason to fold. We want our opponent to have every off suit combo with a club which would be the most commonly hand used to bluff with. Such a commonly confused/ wrong concept when bluff catching .
Literally talking about how villainsbbluffs could be KcKx or KcQx... but still want a club in our hand ???? Contradiction to the max
We decide calling or folding here based on how high up we are in our range .. if we are flatting A4s here then we likely also have 3 combos A9s, 2 A7s...3 of 99 , 3 of 44 .. we also flat Sb with every flush combo , and range should be almost solely condensed to suited hands ...where villain has all the off suit.. so we have KQcc KJcc KTcc K9cc JTcc QJc J9cc T9cc 98cc 87cc.. maybe 67cc? We then have 2 combos each (assuming we 3b at 33% here) of AJs ATs ... 3 combos A8s, A6s.. 1.5 or A5s , A3sx3 , 2.A2s.. (being generous obv).. 16.5 combos worse Ax value , 11combos of flushes , assuming we always xC xC x ..11combos of sets / better 2p.. 16.5 worse , 22better .. so come river we are in no way obligated to call A4s here to meet MDF vs overbet .. would call probably flushes Only .. also villain should never overbet A9s so even 44 can fold.. probably don’t want to have a 9 in our range either when calling since I think some of his absolute best non club bluff combos would contain a 9 or 4 in it.. we definitely want to completely unblock broadway club combos so It we somehow do have off suit AxKc for argument sake it would be awful to hero since we want villain to have every KcQx KcJx QcJx QcTx ..
Yes and no. Depends on the club in your hand also depends on your opponent and where you put them in terms of ability and range. I mean theoretically you are correct but depending on the player and situation it can change. Still gotta give the guy credit for the flush and move on. Caller made too many mistakes in the hand and calling off there just isn’t value in making that particular call in the long run
James Mulrey I would still always fold here - but having a club would make the fold that much easier IMO
D A I agree no reason to make the call especially never finding out where you are with a flop or turn raise or lead.
This hand doesn’t make enough strong value hands to justify getting in stacks postflop to be a call pre in the small blind imo.
insane that bart thinks flat pre is the highest ev here
Completely agree, it’s the worst option imo
The guy couldn’t have been value betting with AxKc?
It's never a bluff when u're opponent said KK with the Kc and doesn't show this hand cause it's a really hard bluff to pull in this particular situation (vilain saying u don't have it so i bet big in a way :) u can play a lot of big flushes this way so his comment makes no sense).
Some times I wonder if you forget bad players can Panick and do Crazy things because they think they are good.
Hero has all flopped flushes in his range, this is a obvious fold. If the guys bluffing hes sick
Set of 2s. No doubt
check raise flop
KKc makes perfect sense here. Respectfully disagree with Bart.
I agree, at least with a thinking player. CBET flop to see opponents strength, realizes he is probably no good to a pair of aces since no reraise, sizes up on turn as a semi bluff with nut blocker, again no reraise which still indicates a good ace/baby flush at max, polarizes river with nut blocker again knowing he has showed strength the whole time, so only getting called by flushes in most scenarios. Think the overbet on river was to give him a little more fold equity against trips possibly?
Either way close spot
Too much time tapping about “Nothing “ hero should’ve called PERIOD...scared money can’t win 💀
This doesn’t really answer the topic question . Check call, check call ,check fold on river and not knowing the opponents hand doesn’t really cover what to do
WUB- WUB- WUB
callllll
Bro your hairline can match up against Stephen A Smith
AA or 99 could have also played it this way... betting small on a flush board flop and then when further streets appear safe for a one card flush, this could have been the line of play. It was a heavily polarizing bet... and folding a 2 pair is a fair decision
I've seen more live hands than anyone and literally no one turns KcKx into a bluff in this spot. It's horseshit.
- Bart Hanson
🤣 😂 🤣 also, KcKx is identical to KcQx in this spot.
1000% not a bluff...
Even I have a set i'm gotta lay that hand down in the river. $400 post size bet at the river is not a bluff. Dam villain slow playing the nut hopping you catch a cold or something