It has to be taxes, executive pay outs, or something of the like, the STUDIO loses money but the individuals involved most assuredly did not lose a dime. 🤨
Maybe he was once, but he's gone way past wearing out his welcome. All of his movies look the same and he plays the same character in each one. That kind of lazy work just doesn't have a long shelf life.
I think Red one sums up the state of hollywood today: Declining appeal of A-list movie starts to sell tickets to non Franchise movies. Massive budgets, The Stream it vs see it at theatres decision , The debate if box office matters to studios like Apple and Amazon
Yeah. I mean, to those people who want to move the goalposts about what constitutes "success" for this movie, let's just say there's a reason this movie wasn't put out by a traditional studio.
It’s good Give new actors who likely need the job and money a chance Also forcing them to do something original We can’t be complaining Hollywood is full of sequels and reboots and cast same actors yet keep giving them huge box office and ignore the others who try to be creative
@@dandansfu I think sadly in the last 6 years or so there has been a split where movies our now considered "see in the theatres" and "stream it at home". For more and more, going to the theares is not a regular past time, but an 2-3 times a year event. So it does appear that going to the theatres is more for event movies (deadpool, dune part 2), horror movies and animation. Whilst traditional star-lead dramas, comedies, and mid tier action movies like fall guy are increasingly seen as -stream it at home. I hope we do get more breakthrough orginal movies like anyone but you, wild robot (adaptation but not a sequel), IF etc, but it is much harder to get audiances out of their house to see those than in the 2000s..
This is basically what's going on everywhere, right? In sports, we are constantly talking about the value of superstars. Signing one superstar vs having two or three great players in his/her place. Get cheaper great actors and forgo expensive A-lister.
Killer of the Flower generated $158M in the box office & it costs was at $215M. Apple states that this film was a financial success. Tech companies are not trad film studios. They don't pay for residuals, everything in terms of compensation is generally upfront. @@jaybling6687
As a long time subscriber from the Philippines, I would never thought that I would get to see a filipino movie on charts with dan!! 😭 Super happy with Hello, Love, Again’s success in America
Dan would have a rough time here in the Philippines, where accurate box office figures are hard to find unless studios voluntarily release them to the public, and that's mostly when the film is a huge success.
I'm actually surprised it made it to top 10! I also checked, and it's showing at an AMC in my area. The last time I saw a Filipino movie in theaters was about 10 years ago, and we had to drive far for a showing.
the rock is like those popular coworker that despite crap performance against their salary, still have their job and continue to keep getting big expense accounts
It actually was intended to be put on streaming to begin with. It was put in theatres because The Rock insisted on it, no joke, after seeing Oppenheimer.
Some good news: In Stuttgart, Germany I went to the theater on Sunday and it was crowded like it wasn't in years and I mean probably a decade. People in their 20-40s wanted to see Gladiator, people from 18-30 came for Terrifier and the older audience was there for a German movie called "old white man". That's how you get people in the seats, with movies they want to see.
Gladiator 2 also debuted high in the UK. However, pre-sales for Wicked is very high (Wicked has become the second highest pre-sales of 2024) which may skew Gladiator 2's second weekend and even its opening weekend domestically.
@@ras_732 Fortunately, Wicked and Gladiator II have different target audiences. They'll simultaneously eat into Red One's four quadrant target audience.
People need to understand that disappointing returns on a movie isn't going to hurt Amazon's overall financials. BUT it just doesn't make any kind of business sense to keep making super expensive movies if there isn't any profit in it.
I don't think Red One is disappointing since it was made for a streaming movie and therefore already paid for. Any box office is gravy for Amazon, and it is number 2 worldwide according to Dan.
Red One was a “just fine” movie. It felt weird watching it in theaters because it just looks like a Netflix or Amazon movie, which is funny because I guess that takes the place of the “straight to DVD” movies.
@@nms7872 So Amazon has cultivated a child-friendly aesthetic spanning back decades and have their own theme parks to be a testament to that, and acquired multiple companies to fit those separate Pixar or Marvel aesthetics into their own? You know what I meant sir.
@@billybattle you said the movie looks just lke an Amazon movie. Red One is literally an Amazon movie. What I said about Moana is true since it is literally a Disney movie.
@@nms7872 Comparing Disney who is a well established film studio, to Amazon really doesnt make any sense. But neither does comparing a "straight to DVD" movie with a movie with a $250 million dollar budget.
Hello, Love, Again.! Being half Filipino it's amazing to see our culture represented especially in a well-crafted movie such this one.! 😍 can't wait to see it again❤
The Rock's acting has worn thin. Unlike Bautista, rock plays the same character in every movie (himself), and everyone knows about "no losing" clause in his contract, which removes any tension in the plot
As someone who is going to see Wicked on tuesday at my local theater, they just added another showing and the one I am going to is almost sold out as well, I have to think that Wicked will at least do well.
I dont understand how The Rock keeps getting such large budgets and such. He isn't raking in tons of money, and he doesn't do prestige films like Scorsese so you can't even make the awards argument. Adter Red One, he should be put in actor jail and his next project needs to be a much smaller budget until he can prove he can actually sell tickets.
I predict Red One will be a hit on streaming. Christmas vibes, popular actors and you'll get people to sit round the TV at Christmas time. Going to the cinema is expensive which is why people are only really going when it's something they really really wanna watch. It's why new IPs have lower box offices, it's a gamble for the audience, will I like this? Better to find out at home and then if its awesome the sequel will be that movie people really really wanna see.
But Dan says Red One is the second highest film world wide..not bad for a streaming movie when it's up against the best Hollywood has to offer. Besides it is paid for by streaming as you pointed out so it doesn't have to make money in the theaters. But it's doing fine.
@@TallPaulInKy You really didnt pay any attention to what Dan said at all.. It's bad to be second highest world wide when your budget is $250 million! "not bad for a streaming movie when it's up against the best Hollywood has to offer" That's just complete nonsense.. It has a MASSIVE budget. Why the fuck are you acting like it's some small indie film? lol
@@TallPaulInKyit made less in two weeks than Gladiator 2 made in one weekend. It was open that long in a bunch of countries and still couldn’t top that film. So much for the big names in this film.
@DanMurrellMovies its your show and however you choose to run it is the right way. I think its very insightful but you have to make the show you believe in.
One issue with poorly received releases is that it results in mostly empty cinemas, I'm sure the budgets are inflated by the studios 'for tax purposes' but if the films aren't getting people into the cinema then they will struggle. I'm genuinely amazed that my local theatre has been able to stay open this year as I don't think I've been to a showing that's at least half full, even on first day releases, there's more chance of me and my son being the only ones in the screening.
I saw "Red One", and it's fine but not something that needs to be seen in a theater. I think Dan in his own review described it as the type of movie you put on at home for background noise. Then I look at the budget...
If we are argue that Amazon Apple dont need the box office money, as they are so big they can absorb the loss + make the money back on add revenue and keeping people signed up on prime membership, we could also argue the same applies to Disney and Universal. Both are massive companies, and if they have movies that flop at the box office, they could make the money back on merchandising and using the IP for themepark rides (harry potter, Little mermaid, star wars, fast and the furiuous etc). Sony too, you could argue they dont need the box office as much as they can fall back on their netflix deal and still make most of their money selling Playstation and TVs. Warner Bros, Paramount and Lionsgate are the 3 major studios who still rely most on the box office. Whilst they do have network and cable channels like CBS, discovery as well as Paramount+ and HBO max, they dont have cosumer products or theme parks to fall back on.
Two thoughts: 1. I would find it helpful when there are charts like the Rocks biggest hits if the movie also had the year next to it (like they do) 2. I would be curious what the Rocks box office numbers look like when you factor in other countries. I remember once hearing he does really well in Asian countries. That might be a reason they justify these big budgets. Great episode, thanks for all that you do!
It's amazing to see the graph of all the Dwayne Johnson movies' budgets and opening weekend numbers. That guy really thinks he's a powerhouse box office draw, but he very clearly is not. Super interesting to see it laid out like that.
The Rock’s schtick is wearing thin. The reality is he plays some form of “The Rock” in all of his films. I have to admit, when I first saw the trailer with Chris Evans and JK Simmons it grabbed my interest. But as soon as I saw Johnson was the headliner my interest immediately waned. He really isn’t very versatile as an actor. Dave Batista and even John Cena are producing more interesting films.
It's a film with no commerical international legs. The Rock's appeal has significantly diminished at the box office in recent years, with terrible films and a steady drip of stories about him being something of a gobshite in real life. And releasing a Christmas film more than a month before Christmas underscores that the studio has no confidence in it and just wants it gone. Put all that together, and it's looking at a weak domestic take and reach, and even worse prospects out here in the rest of the world.
Elf came out 1 week earlier and isn’t a Christmas Classic. Santa Clause 2 also 1st week of November. A Christmas Story even came out November 18th. Not saying Red One is good at all, but maybe do some research 1st
The 3rd Divergent film released at $29m domestic and it crashed the franchise. This did $8m more. It’s done for. No way they make money back with $120-200m budget
@@johnbruno940I'm acutely aware of those films, and their domestic and international success, as well as their cultural success, just as I was at the time of their release, decades ago - I'm middle-aged, and was previously a cinema reviewer and critic, so perhaps I have some knowledge to draw upon in that regard. You're quite correct to clumsily point out that a seasonally-themed film or project needn't be released only at that specific date or timeframe to be a success. However, that doesn't negate my original points: The Rock's appeal has waned, and the studio appears to have zero confidence in the film, which has been steadily garnering terrible word of mouth and reviews, and underwhelming box office returns, during its release window, to date. Another Elf, it is patently not - nor will it be seen in years to come as an underrated classic a la famous box office bombs like The Thing, still delighting audiences 40 years later. Hell, it's not even so delightfully terrible that it's a cinematic treat, like anything Neil Breen makes - it's clearly just an early Christmas turkey, no matter how you may curiously wish to frame it.
The biggest issue is that people want to watch what they think they already know. Original movies that are not based on anything else are going to take some time for people to get used to again. I'm a Disney fan (I'm aware that this is not a Disney movie), but I have to admit that they have done us a disservice by constantly releasing remakes, reboots, prequels, and sequels. Also, why release a Christmas-based movie so far outside the Christmas season?
Dan I'm just a little confused on the streaming charts section for most watched programs, is there a reason you don't include the non English movies and shows? Is it just Alot of extra work? The reason I ask is because I've been following the views for the anime Dandadan and it's been comfortably in the top 5 since it started airingbut it's counted on the non English chart. I think it would probably have been in the top 10 or top 5 for the last 4-5 weeks I appreciate all the work you put into these videos, they are the highlight of my week!
Really nice look at the rock stats and analysis! Amazon are crazy for paying him so much. They are losing money and look ridiculous seeing these figures.
Quick correction: UFC 309 was on Saturday, the Jake Paul Mike Tyson Fight was on Friday, so UFC’s performance had nothing to do with people being unable to watch the Netflix fight
I wonder if The Wild Robot is high on the list of movies to never hit #1 in the US. Obviously, it's not close to Oppenheimer, but it would be interesting to see considering it kept getting stuck at #2 behind different movies.
I'm positive that Wicked will break Beauty and the Beast's domestic opening weekend record for a musical movie. I watched Wicked last night through an early screening provided by Amazon Prime, and the theater was packed. Everyone who was at that Cinemark last night were all there to watch Wicked. I heard that some theaters have showings as early as Wednesday evening, so it does seem that the studio is trying to get as many opportunities as possible for folks to see Wicked throughout the week.
if the story is not based on an existing story, of course. If your criteria for "original" is that none of the part can have existed before then there's no original concepts.
Great charts episode as always! Any chance you’d think of reviewing Emelia Perez? Not too late, as it’s going to be awards season until March. Also quick correction, All We Imagine As Light was a big Cannes breakout, not Sundance :)
People are sleeping on how enormous Lion King is. Just look back at how the re-release did the same year! I see estimates on Mufasa at like 50 million and I think it will double that easily. I see something like 125-150 with a fantastic hold heading into new year. The only thing that could hold It back is if the songs suck, but Lin Manuel Miranda passes on Moana 2 to take on the music for Mufasa, so I expect it to be a strength of the film.
Very happy to have seen Gladiator 2 in an almost sold out theatre here in Ireland on Saturday (could be Paul mescal drawing the Irish out lol) excited to see how it does domestically next week!
Great work as always Dan!!! (hate to be that guy but only one minor correction: the biggest musical opener ever is The Lion King 2019 :P Otherwise, FANTASTIC work)
I think we're in for a It Ends With Us style surprise; female centric films just do not track well prior to opening. People underestimated that movie, no one expected Barbie to be as big, inside Out 2 was bigger than expected...so I can definitely see Wicked doing pretty impressive numbers, north of $120 million.
Where does the line get drawn between a streaming movie with an early theatrical release (like Red One supposedly) and a movie originally intended for streaming that gets a theatrical release (like Blue Beetle)?
We already seen A Real Pain on Sunday and I really love it is really a triumph buddy road trip film and is really funny and emotional for the family members and friends who were in the holocaust and is very outstanding written and directed and star Jesse Eisenberg and really a marvelous supporting role by Kieran Culkin who did really outstanding performance and the cinematography looks amazing and independent and I highly recommend everybody to go and see it if both wicked and gladiator 2 are sold out go see A Real Pain.
To me the question with Red One is another. When the movie was greenlit it was supposed to be a stream exclusive. So, in the initial finantial plan for the movie, amazon expected to get zero money from a theatrical release. Thats what Netflix did with Red Notice. A movie that also cost 200 mi to make. So, if by the end of its run Red One amazon gets 50 mi from it, it is still 50 mi more than Netflix got from a very similar movie and 50 mi more than what they had initially plan. Thats why it is not the same as a release from other studios. Amazon probably consider the 200 mi the movie cost as advertisement cost for Prime videos. Would they be more happy if it was a 1 bi movie? Sure. But it is not a tragedy that it didnt, because they never thought it would.
But they also paid for multiple huge international premiers and advertising. So a lot of that “extra” money was spent in hopes of getting a much bigger return.
Except they split that 50 with theaters, so $25 million. And they had to market it outside their ecosystem, so they are in the hole because it likely cost $100 million in marketing costs, minimum.
And what Dan is saying, and what we think the business is saying, is that is unsustainable. Especially for the people in the business that aren’t super rich like the Rock
@@choreomaniac first, the 50 it is already considering this. The movie already made 83 mi worldwide. Im pretty sure is gonna get to 100 until the end of the run (my bet is that it will close around 150 to 200). Second, even if it was 25, would still be 25 more than what they had initialy plan and than what Red Notice did.
@@ikexbankai well "the business" is comparing Apple and amazon strategy and they are not the same. Killers of the Flower Moon was always intend to be a theatrical release, therefore in it is balance sheet the company always expected to get something from the theatrical window. Now, is the strategy of dumping 200 mi on streaming exclusive movies validy? I dont know. But it is what Netflix does and she seems to be the only one coming out on top on the streaming wars. All movies on streaming are basicly adverdisement. They are there to convince people to subscribe or stop people from unsubscribing. The metric for sucess in those cases is another is not boxoffice, the industry is still trying to figure out exactly how to mesure sucess. Even hours watch is not an exact metric for it.
I know it is a bit of a crowded field this year, but why is any Christmas movie opening before Thanksgiving Day? My big question of the season is how well will Dear Santa perform compared to Red One? I expect a The Rock vs. Jack Black chart or 2 in the coming weeks.
the Domestic Budget vs Openings needs a key to show what color means what, I know you explain it, but it's still needed. Love your vidoes and analysis! Dwayne def has an issue with this, maybe not his fault, but maybe Hollywood symptom of over-budgeting due to having famous people and thinking it'll work out. It clearly wont.
6:59 Until proven otherwise, I believe the reason for inflated budgets on movies starring The Rock is because of all the extra CGI needed to wipe the glare and reflections off his shiny dome in post-production.
I think Apple and Amazon would be wise to scale back their spending on movies, but I dont want to be harsher towards them than towards Netflix, who spends just as much but refuses to give a wide theatrical release. We ought to treat every big budget Netflix release as the box office disasters that they are. Trying and failing at the box office is far more admirable than robbing audiences of the *chance* to see movies on the big screen while losing money anyway.
Hold up… The Rock wasn’t on the top billing of Moana??? That seems very odd considering he is the second lead of the movie. So I can’t vote in the poll you’re doing BUT without a shadow of a doubt is Wicked gonna break what Beauty & the Beast did for its opening weekend. I’m calling for well over 200 million easy!
Hey Dan, I’m not sure how much this will factor into your box office coverage next week, but Gladiator II premiered on Monday in some secret preview screenings at chains like Harkins and Regal.
You keep saying you never hear what the financial model for streaming first movies is, so let me try to directly answer that question for you. This is an oversimplification, but I think it is directionally true. There are always going to be unique contexts that change when you granularly look at individual films. A Streaming first film is NOT the main financial investment the same way it is for a normal studio. A traditional studio makes money from the movies it makes. A streamer makes money from the recurring monthly subscriber base. Streamers have a large revenue number they expect on a quarterly and annual basis that is derived from the monthly and annual subscriber revenue they have coming in. Based on that number they create an annual content budget that they use to license and create content for their platform to ensure they have good churn. To put it in a silly analogy. Streamers throw a party with a cover charge but have an open bar. Movie Studios throw a party and charge for each specialty drink. So for the streamers the Bar is a SPEND, and as long as that spend is less than the cover charge, it is worthwhile. Traditional studios each speciality drink is a line item, as long as each drink earns more than the cost of the ingredients, it is worthwhile. Also streamer movies uniformly have much higher reported budgets because they pay more for the principles because the purpose of those films is to play on streamers NOT in theaters. Minimizing back end participation. There is also some reported cases where the reported budget is actually the all in cost for the streamer, so it also includes overhead from staff and executives that work on getting these films to the streamers. (Argyle Director Matthew Vaughn was very adamant that his film didn't cost 200M, yet we know Apple spent that much, so this would explain that discrepancy). So basically, for a streamer you have to look at ALL of the content they make or licenses in a given year as a SPEND. If Prime is bringing in $40 Billion from subscribers annually, and of that they spend $5 Billion annually on content, then their financial model works. They bring in huge numbers every month, and the content spend's goal is not to directly represent more earned money, but to keep the churn of monthly subscribers flat or positive. That is all. This is also why Apple is pivoting, they were spending like they had Netflix, Prime, or Disney subscriber numbers... they simply don't and probably never will. So for Apple that model doesn't work. Summation: For a streamer the financial investment is NOT the individual movie, but the streaming service itself. The content is a SPEND. For a traditional studio the financial investment is the individual movie. That is why there is a different financial context to a streaming first movie, it is about purpose of spend and where the actual financial investment is being considered.
Yes, I know all of that and I’ve covered much of that on the channel. However, I still think a $250 million investment in one project is something that we’re going to see less and less of. Streaming has used the “draw subs, stop churn” justification to spend recklessly for years, but there’s no indication that this is an effective long term strategy. Even streamers that are entering profitability are cutting back because they are paying down massive debts to get to that point. Even as part of a larger budget, $250 million is a lot of ‘spend’ in one go.
![BOWKYLION - วิงวอน (ex-change) [Official MV]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/cLdnZWDaO-w/mqdefault.jpg)
I simply cannot get into the head space where someone reads the script for Red One and decides, Yes, this needs 250 millions dollars behind it.
It has to be taxes, executive pay outs, or something of the like, the STUDIO loses money but the individuals involved most assuredly did not lose a dime. 🤨
@@paradopx8618 basically the plot of The Producers
The movie could cost 1$ and the rock will ask for 249,999,999$
@@kevinluu7024 This is not the Rock's fault, though. He didn't sign the front of the check.
@josephfisher426 true dat
It's a shame that Red One isn't going to replicate the success of its predecessor, the most watched movie of all time, Red Notice.
😂😂😂
Currently watching Red Notice right now on five different screens
@@ZachBobBob I constantly have it running on a loop on all of my devices. It is more than a film, it has become a way of life.
You could have said Bruce Willis' movie RED AND RED 2.
RED was actually a success
😂😂😂😊
Dan, I'm sure your reviews of Gladiator 2 and Wicked will be great, but the world needs to know what you think of Hot Frosty.
YES! 😂
Honestly...I haven't seen it, but the concept itself is so funny to me that I'm kind of happy this movie exists
Hot Frosty was Hot Garbage… Red One was fun though
I really want to see his thoughts on it haha
I loved hot frosty, and we need more people to watch it!
Red One will change the hierarchy of Christmas
Why? 😅😅😅
Dwayne Johnson isn't the Box Office draw he thinks he is.
Maybe he was once, but he's gone way past wearing out his welcome. All of his movies look the same and he plays the same character in each one. That kind of lazy work just doesn't have a long shelf life.
People realized most movies with him as top bill are trash. This is straight to Netflix/Prime level tripe.
He was... just not anymore...
I'm sure it'll do great streaming numbers. That's what he'll focus on
30m for Road House would be a success, not on a 250m movie
I think Red one sums up the state of hollywood today: Declining appeal of A-list movie starts to sell tickets to non Franchise movies. Massive budgets, The Stream it vs see it at theatres decision , The debate if box office matters to studios like Apple and Amazon
Yeah. I mean, to those people who want to move the goalposts about what constitutes "success" for this movie, let's just say there's a reason this movie wasn't put out by a traditional studio.
It’s good
Give new actors who likely need the job and money a chance
Also forcing them to do something original
We can’t be complaining Hollywood is full of sequels and reboots and cast same actors yet keep giving them huge box office and ignore the others who try to be creative
@@dandansfu I think sadly in the last 6 years or so there has been a split where movies our now considered "see in the theatres" and "stream it at home". For more and more, going to the theares is not a regular past time, but an 2-3 times a year event.
So it does appear that going to the theatres is more for event movies (deadpool, dune part 2), horror movies and animation. Whilst traditional star-lead dramas, comedies, and mid tier action movies like fall guy are increasingly seen as -stream it at home.
I hope we do get more breakthrough orginal movies like anyone but you, wild robot (adaptation but not a sequel), IF etc, but it is much harder to get audiances out of their house to see those than in the 2000s..
This is basically what's going on everywhere, right? In sports, we are constantly talking about the value of superstars. Signing one superstar vs having two or three great players in his/her place. Get cheaper great actors and forgo expensive A-lister.
Killer of the Flower generated $158M in the box office & it costs was at $215M. Apple states that this film was a financial success. Tech companies are not trad film studios. They don't pay for residuals, everything in terms of compensation is generally upfront. @@jaybling6687
As a long time subscriber from the Philippines, I would never thought that I would get to see a filipino movie on charts with dan!! 😭 Super happy with Hello, Love, Again’s success in America
Dan would have a rough time here in the Philippines, where accurate box office figures are hard to find unless studios voluntarily release them to the public, and that's mostly when the film is a huge success.
I'm actually surprised it made it to top 10! I also checked, and it's showing at an AMC in my area. The last time I saw a Filipino movie in theaters was about 10 years ago, and we had to drive far for a showing.
Same! Been a fan of Charts since the SJ days and I never thought I'd see one here. Good job to the movie and the team 🎉
Yes, The Wild Robot is still in the top 5! Saw it twice, I loved it both times! I bet it's still gonna be up there next week.
The bad news is that theaters are losing money, good news is that is being proven that bad movies or mediocre movies will stop making money
Honestly, from a theater perspective, all of Red Ones money is a bonus as they wouldn’t have gotten anything if it went straight to Prime.
the rock is like those popular coworker that despite crap performance against their salary, still have their job and continue to keep getting big expense accounts
This looks like a straight to streaming movie
It actually was intended to be put on streaming to begin with. It was put in theatres because The Rock insisted on it, no joke, after seeing Oppenheimer.
Red One: for a “theatrical movie” it was a 4/10
For a “streaming movie” it was a 5/10
Some good news:
In Stuttgart, Germany I went to the theater on Sunday and it was crowded like it wasn't in years and I mean probably a decade.
People in their 20-40s wanted to see Gladiator, people from 18-30 came for Terrifier and the older audience was there for a German movie called "old white man".
That's how you get people in the seats, with movies they want to see.
Terrifier did huge numbers (considering the type of movie of course) in Greece too.
@@Cotsos88teenage curiosty is a strong thing
Gladiator 2 also debuted high in the UK.
However, pre-sales for Wicked is very high (Wicked has become the second highest pre-sales of 2024) which may skew Gladiator 2's second weekend and even its opening weekend domestically.
@@ras_732 Fortunately, Wicked and Gladiator II have different target audiences. They'll simultaneously eat into Red One's four quadrant target audience.
I love how a bunch of Dan's fans come here with our own, little bubble of data in the comments!
Rock: What do you think about the Red One?
You: Well the number shows that...
Rock: It doesn't matter what you think about the Red One!
Budget control is the best indicator of star power. Every actor is successful with their own budget range.
These studios must be laundering money because ain't no way in hell it's $200 million on the screen in Red One.
The answer is clearly for the Rock to keep making more movies with Red in the title
next year's release: Red Rock (Mission to Mars)
Red Dead Redemption starring The Rock??
60% of the Rock's movie budgets must be going to his salary. The CGI in his movies always look so cheap and dated
Yeah...I genuinely have no idea how the budget could've ballooned to such an extent. It looks so cheap.
It's probably not just his salary.
I'm sure his contract includes a lot of Personal assistants and trainers.
Dwayne "The Franchise" Johnson Tracker pls?
People need to understand that disappointing returns on a movie isn't going to hurt Amazon's overall financials. BUT it just doesn't make any kind of business sense to keep making super expensive movies if there isn't any profit in it.
I don't think Red One is disappointing since it was made for a streaming movie and therefore already paid for. Any box office is gravy for Amazon, and it is number 2 worldwide according to Dan.
The thing is that we just don’t know how Amazon and Netflix make profit from movies like this. Maybe they do make enough profit from them in someway.
It doesn't help the financials! Surely they had some way to use that money to make more money...
Red One was a “just fine” movie. It felt weird watching it in theaters because it just looks like a Netflix or Amazon movie, which is funny because I guess that takes the place of the “straight to DVD” movies.
RED One is an Amazon movie though
It's like if I said Moana 2 looks like a Disney movie
@@nms7872 So Amazon has cultivated a child-friendly aesthetic spanning back decades and have their own theme parks to be a testament to that, and acquired multiple companies to fit those separate Pixar or Marvel aesthetics into their own? You know what I meant sir.
@@billybattle you said the movie looks just lke an Amazon movie. Red One is literally an Amazon movie. What I said about Moana is true since it is literally a Disney movie.
@@nms7872 Then you don’t understand what I mean.
@@nms7872 Comparing Disney who is a well established film studio, to Amazon really doesnt make any sense.
But neither does comparing a "straight to DVD" movie with a movie with a $250 million dollar budget.
Hello, Love, Again.! Being half Filipino it's amazing to see our culture represented especially in a well-crafted movie such this one.! 😍 can't wait to see it again❤
The Rock's acting has worn thin. Unlike Bautista, rock plays the same character in every movie (himself), and everyone knows about "no losing" clause in his contract, which removes any tension in the plot
As someone who is going to see Wicked on tuesday at my local theater, they just added another showing and the one I am going to is almost sold out as well, I have to think that Wicked will at least do well.
Saw Gladiator 2 on opening day in IMAX in Tokyo. Theater wasn't sold out, but it was close.
I dont understand how The Rock keeps getting such large budgets and such. He isn't raking in tons of money, and he doesn't do prestige films like Scorsese so you can't even make the awards argument. Adter Red One, he should be put in actor jail and his next project needs to be a much smaller budget until he can prove he can actually sell tickets.
What's crazy is I remember hearing how all 4 of those movies did bad in one way or under performed (Nope, Onward, If, RedOne, Lost City)
Woo! Charts is here!
I predict Red One will be a hit on streaming. Christmas vibes, popular actors and you'll get people to sit round the TV at Christmas time. Going to the cinema is expensive which is why people are only really going when it's something they really really wanna watch. It's why new IPs have lower box offices, it's a gamble for the audience, will I like this? Better to find out at home and then if its awesome the sequel will be that movie people really really wanna see.
But Dan says Red One is the second highest film world wide..not bad for a streaming movie when it's up against the best Hollywood has to offer. Besides it is paid for by streaming as you pointed out so it doesn't have to make money in the theaters. But it's doing fine.
No reason to release it theatrically if you dont believe it will be a success. That's just a waste of money.
@@TallPaulInKy You really didnt pay any attention to what Dan said at all.. It's bad to be second highest world wide when your budget is $250 million!
"not bad for a streaming movie when it's up against the best Hollywood has to offer" That's just complete nonsense.. It has a MASSIVE budget. Why the fuck are you acting like it's some small indie film? lol
The actors really aren’t that popular. The Rock pissed people off begging for money after the wildfires and Chris has been flopping since Knives out.
@@TallPaulInKyit made less in two weeks than Gladiator 2 made in one weekend. It was open that long in a bunch of countries and still couldn’t top that film. So much for the big names in this film.
The inflation adjustment is very important to me on the flashbacks. I hope you reconsider.
I get just as many people saying they’re pointless. Ultimately, I’m just trying to make the most interesting show I can.
@DanMurrellMovies its your show and however you choose to run it is the right way. I think its very insightful but you have to make the show you believe in.
One issue with poorly received releases is that it results in mostly empty cinemas, I'm sure the budgets are inflated by the studios 'for tax purposes' but if the films aren't getting people into the cinema then they will struggle. I'm genuinely amazed that my local theatre has been able to stay open this year as I don't think I've been to a showing that's at least half full, even on first day releases, there's more chance of me and my son being the only ones in the screening.
I saw "Red One", and it's fine but not something that needs to be seen in a theater. I think Dan in his own review described it as the type of movie you put on at home for background noise.
Then I look at the budget...
If we are argue that Amazon Apple dont need the box office money, as they are so big they can absorb the loss + make the money back on add revenue and keeping people signed up on prime membership, we could also argue the same applies to Disney and Universal.
Both are massive companies, and if they have movies that flop at the box office, they could make the money back on merchandising and using the IP for themepark rides (harry potter, Little mermaid, star wars, fast and the furiuous etc).
Sony too, you could argue they dont need the box office as much as they can fall back on their netflix deal and still make most of their money selling Playstation and TVs.
Warner Bros, Paramount and Lionsgate are the 3 major studios who still rely most on the box office. Whilst they do have network and cable channels like CBS, discovery as well as Paramount+ and HBO max, they dont have cosumer products or theme parks to fall back on.
well yeah… that’s kinda how the entire industry works.
Loving the Blues Clues box office flashback questions
Two thoughts:
1. I would find it helpful when there are charts like the Rocks biggest hits if the movie also had the year next to it (like they do)
2. I would be curious what the Rocks box office numbers look like when you factor in other countries. I remember once hearing he does really well in Asian countries. That might be a reason they justify these big budgets.
Great episode, thanks for all that you do!
I did not expect to see a Filipino movie on the charts today 🇵🇭
PLEASE PLEASE PLEEEEEASE keep the inflation tracker
22:50 Hey Dan, Kanguva is a new release. It was Singham Again that released alongside Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3.
Whoops. My mistake.
if Red One was a Netflix movie (which it certainly looks like) they would've talked about it like it's the biggest movie of all time
It's amazing to see the graph of all the Dwayne Johnson movies' budgets and opening weekend numbers. That guy really thinks he's a powerhouse box office draw, but he very clearly is not. Super interesting to see it laid out like that.
I support on patreon, not through TH-cam, so I didn't get to vote in the member's poll but I'm so happy to be back to getting actuals on Tuesday!
I really like the new quiz that comes with the flashback section. I hope you manage to keep them going.
His next movie should be "In the Red", "Red Letter Day", "Red Faced", "Little Red F&F Hood", or "Uncle Red". 😂
The Rock’s schtick is wearing thin. The reality is he plays some form of “The Rock” in all of his films. I have to admit, when I first saw the trailer with Chris Evans and JK Simmons it grabbed my interest. But as soon as I saw Johnson was the headliner my interest immediately waned. He really isn’t very versatile as an actor. Dave Batista and even John Cena are producing more interesting films.
It's a film with no commerical international legs. The Rock's appeal has significantly diminished at the box office in recent years, with terrible films and a steady drip of stories about him being something of a gobshite in real life.
And releasing a Christmas film more than a month before Christmas underscores that the studio has no confidence in it and just wants it gone.
Put all that together, and it's looking at a weak domestic take and reach, and even worse prospects out here in the rest of the world.
Elf came out 1 week earlier and isn’t a Christmas Classic. Santa Clause 2 also 1st week of November. A Christmas Story even came out November 18th. Not saying Red One is good at all, but maybe do some research 1st
The 3rd Divergent film released at $29m domestic and it crashed the franchise. This did $8m more. It’s done for. No way they make money back with $120-200m budget
I'm guessing they want it on Prime by Christmas and that is why they release in November.
@@johnbruno940I'm acutely aware of those films, and their domestic and international success, as well as their cultural success, just as I was at the time of their release, decades ago - I'm middle-aged, and was previously a cinema reviewer and critic, so perhaps I have some knowledge to draw upon in that regard.
You're quite correct to clumsily point out that a seasonally-themed film or project needn't be released only at that specific date or timeframe to be a success.
However, that doesn't negate my original points: The Rock's appeal has waned, and the studio appears to have zero confidence in the film, which has been steadily garnering terrible word of mouth and reviews, and underwhelming box office returns, during its release window, to date.
Another Elf, it is patently not - nor will it be seen in years to come as an underrated classic a la famous box office bombs like The Thing, still delighting audiences 40 years later. Hell, it's not even so delightfully terrible that it's a cinematic treat, like anything Neil Breen makes - it's clearly just an early Christmas turkey, no matter how you may curiously wish to frame it.
Christmas movies ALWAYS release in November. Especially so they can make money during the holiday months and slower January month.
I saw the trailers and thought "This looks like a straight to stream movie" and for some reason, that made me not want to go see it in theaters
The biggest issue is that people want to watch what they think they already know. Original movies that are not based on anything else are going to take some time for people to get used to again. I'm a Disney fan (I'm aware that this is not a Disney movie), but I have to admit that they have done us a disservice by constantly releasing remakes, reboots, prequels, and sequels. Also, why release a Christmas-based movie so far outside the Christmas season?
Thank you for the early release
quick suggestion: for the theater ccount changes chart, maybe include what week it is for the film
Dan I'm just a little confused on the streaming charts section for most watched programs, is there a reason you don't include the non English movies and shows?
Is it just Alot of extra work?
The reason I ask is because I've been following the views for the anime Dandadan and it's been comfortably in the top 5 since it started airingbut it's counted on the non English chart.
I think it would probably have been in the top 10 or top 5 for the last 4-5 weeks
I appreciate all the work you put into these videos, they are the highlight of my week!
Really nice look at the rock stats and analysis! Amazon are crazy for paying him so much. They are losing money and look ridiculous seeing these figures.
Wild Robot holding really well for something out on VOD and 8 weeks of release.
Morning Coffee and Charts. Great Day!!!!
Got here in the first 15 minutes. Wasn't expecting to see it. A welcome surprise.
I loved seeing the trivia instead of the inflation adjusted values
I saw Anora this weekend. I loved it.
Quick correction: UFC 309 was on Saturday, the Jake Paul Mike Tyson Fight was on Friday, so UFC’s performance had nothing to do with people being unable to watch the Netflix fight
Also fun fact this is Jeff Goldblum's 50th anniversary of his first acting role in 1974 cult classic revenge thriller Death Wish.
My forty year old son and I went to see Red One, we really enjoyed it. If you don't take it to seriously it's just fun! 😏👍
I wonder if The Wild Robot is high on the list of movies to never hit #1 in the US. Obviously, it's not close to Oppenheimer, but it would be interesting to see considering it kept getting stuck at #2 behind different movies.
It's still about $80 million shy of the #5 movie, Alvin and the Chipmunks.
I think this is Dan's way of trying to disincentivize studios from releasing more Dwayne Johnson movies that screw over summer movie predictions :p
As a Trekkie, I'm glad Nemesis didn't get number 1, it destroyed Romulus! Anyway lol, brilliant video Dan.
His ego won’t let him lower the budget.
I'm positive that Wicked will break Beauty and the Beast's domestic opening weekend record for a musical movie. I watched Wicked last night through an early screening provided by Amazon Prime, and the theater was packed. Everyone who was at that Cinemark last night were all there to watch Wicked. I heard that some theaters have showings as early as Wednesday evening, so it does seem that the studio is trying to get as many opportunities as possible for folks to see Wicked throughout the week.
We Live in Time and Here aren't even out here in the UK until January.
Just googled to check I hadn't missed them.
I am a big moviegoer and didn't hear about Red One movie till last week
Can a Santa movie be a "completely original concept'?
if the story is not based on an existing story, of course.
If your criteria for "original" is that none of the part can have existed before then there's no original concepts.
Great charts episode as always!
Any chance you’d think of reviewing Emelia Perez? Not too late, as it’s going to be awards season until March.
Also quick correction, All We Imagine As Light was a big Cannes breakout, not Sundance :)
The adjusted to inflation is my favorite part of the box office flashbacks, it's very helpful and a little look at how the world was at that time
People are sleeping on how enormous Lion King is. Just look back at how the re-release did the same year! I see estimates on Mufasa at like 50 million and I think it will double that easily. I see something like 125-150 with a fantastic hold heading into new year.
The only thing that could hold
It back is if the songs suck, but Lin Manuel Miranda passes on Moana 2 to take on the music for Mufasa, so I expect it to be a strength of the film.
Charts with Dan time!!!!
Very happy to have seen Gladiator 2 in an almost sold out theatre here in Ireland on Saturday (could be Paul mescal drawing the Irish out lol) excited to see how it does domestically next week!
Red One is in cinemas, while I still greatly resent that I couldn't watch Glass Onion on the big screen.
Great vid and work as always Mr. Dan
Great work as always Dan!!!
(hate to be that guy but only one minor correction: the biggest musical opener ever is The Lion King 2019 :P Otherwise, FANTASTIC work)
I thought he was focusing on songs sang by human characters.
@bobyjeans1452 If yes, then nevermind my comment. I assumed musicals in general, but I did think he might've been referring only to live action
2:02 Proud Pinoys incoming.
I guess The Rock was not cooking with this movie.
Based on his own admissions, I don’t think anyone wants to smell what he’s cooking…
Our only theatre is closing in January. I think it's fair to say I will probably never see a movie in the theatre again.
I think we're in for a It Ends With Us style surprise; female centric films just do not track well prior to opening. People underestimated that movie, no one expected Barbie to be as big, inside Out 2 was bigger than expected...so I can definitely see Wicked doing pretty impressive numbers, north of $120 million.
He's 52, this is going to end soon.
Where does the line get drawn between a streaming movie with an early theatrical release (like Red One supposedly) and a movie originally intended for streaming that gets a theatrical release (like Blue Beetle)?
We already seen A Real Pain on Sunday and I really love it is really a triumph buddy road trip film and is really funny and emotional for the family members and friends who were in the holocaust and is very outstanding written and directed and star Jesse Eisenberg and really a marvelous supporting role by Kieran Culkin who did really outstanding performance and the cinematography looks amazing and independent and I highly recommend everybody to go and see it if both wicked and gladiator 2 are sold out go see A Real Pain.
To me the question with Red One is another. When the movie was greenlit it was supposed to be a stream exclusive. So, in the initial finantial plan for the movie, amazon expected to get zero money from a theatrical release. Thats what Netflix did with Red Notice. A movie that also cost 200 mi to make. So, if by the end of its run Red One amazon gets 50 mi from it, it is still 50 mi more than Netflix got from a very similar movie and 50 mi more than what they had initially plan. Thats why it is not the same as a release from other studios. Amazon probably consider the 200 mi the movie cost as advertisement cost for Prime videos. Would they be more happy if it was a 1 bi movie? Sure. But it is not a tragedy that it didnt, because they never thought it would.
But they also paid for multiple huge international premiers and advertising. So a lot of that “extra” money was spent in hopes of getting a much bigger return.
Except they split that 50 with theaters, so $25 million. And they had to market it outside their ecosystem, so they are in the hole because it likely cost $100 million in marketing costs, minimum.
And what Dan is saying, and what we think the business is saying, is that is unsustainable. Especially for the people in the business that aren’t super rich like the Rock
@@choreomaniac first, the 50 it is already considering this. The movie already made 83 mi worldwide. Im pretty sure is gonna get to 100 until the end of the run (my bet is that it will close around 150 to 200). Second, even if it was 25, would still be 25 more than what they had initialy plan and than what Red Notice did.
@@ikexbankai well "the business" is comparing Apple and amazon strategy and they are not the same. Killers of the Flower Moon was always intend to be a theatrical release, therefore in it is balance sheet the company always expected to get something from the theatrical window. Now, is the strategy of dumping 200 mi on streaming exclusive movies validy? I dont know. But it is what Netflix does and she seems to be the only one coming out on top on the streaming wars. All movies on streaming are basicly adverdisement. They are there to convince people to subscribe or stop people from unsubscribing. The metric for sucess in those cases is another is not boxoffice, the industry is still trying to figure out exactly how to mesure sucess. Even hours watch is not an exact metric for it.
I know it is a bit of a crowded field this year, but why is any Christmas movie opening before Thanksgiving Day? My big question of the season is how well will Dear Santa perform compared to Red One? I expect a The Rock vs. Jack Black chart or 2 in the coming weeks.
Just saw Wicked last night and Wow! It was amazing. I have some minor criticisms so I’m excited to hear your thoughts.
Dang I was nearly first :’( Love u Dan! Love from New Zealand Aotearoa ❤
This is the first I’m hearing about Red One. Haven’t seen any advertisements or reviews for it.
the Domestic Budget vs Openings needs a key to show what color means what, I know you explain it, but it's still needed. Love your vidoes and analysis! Dwayne def has an issue with this, maybe not his fault, but maybe Hollywood symptom of over-budgeting due to having famous people and thinking it'll work out. It clearly wont.
Thanks Dan
Well put!
6:59 Until proven otherwise, I believe the reason for inflated budgets on movies starring The Rock is because of all the extra CGI needed to wipe the glare and reflections off his shiny dome in post-production.
9:10 I'm getting a BIG "The Producers" vibe listening to you talking about Red One. Lol.
25:46 Imagine opening less than a fricking J Lo rom com lol 😂😂😂.
I think Apple and Amazon would be wise to scale back their spending on movies, but I dont want to be harsher towards them than towards Netflix, who spends just as much but refuses to give a wide theatrical release.
We ought to treat every big budget Netflix release as the box office disasters that they are. Trying and failing at the box office is far more admirable than robbing audiences of the *chance* to see movies on the big screen while losing money anyway.
Didn't Oppenheimer cost less than half that?
Did you ever do a profit breakdown for Transformers One?
Hold up… The Rock wasn’t on the top billing of Moana??? That seems very odd considering he is the second lead of the movie. So I can’t vote in the poll you’re doing BUT without a shadow of a doubt is Wicked gonna break what Beauty & the Beast did for its opening weekend. I’m calling for well over 200 million easy!
He wasn’t the top billed star, as in #1 in the credits.
Hey Dan, I’m not sure how much this will factor into your box office coverage next week, but Gladiator II premiered on Monday in some secret preview screenings at chains like Harkins and Regal.
At 3:10 you're just gonna say Santa isn't real just like that huh
somewhat intrigued if the rock is going to try to "black adam" this and present some rationale as to why red one technically made money
You keep saying you never hear what the financial model for streaming first movies is, so let me try to directly answer that question for you.
This is an oversimplification, but I think it is directionally true. There are always going to be unique contexts that change when you granularly look at individual films.
A Streaming first film is NOT the main financial investment the same way it is for a normal studio. A traditional studio makes money from the movies it makes. A streamer makes money from the recurring monthly subscriber base. Streamers have a large revenue number they expect on a quarterly and annual basis that is derived from the monthly and annual subscriber revenue they have coming in. Based on that number they create an annual content budget that they use to license and create content for their platform to ensure they have good churn.
To put it in a silly analogy. Streamers throw a party with a cover charge but have an open bar. Movie Studios throw a party and charge for each specialty drink.
So for the streamers the Bar is a SPEND, and as long as that spend is less than the cover charge, it is worthwhile.
Traditional studios each speciality drink is a line item, as long as each drink earns more than the cost of the ingredients, it is worthwhile.
Also streamer movies uniformly have much higher reported budgets because they pay more for the principles because the purpose of those films is to play on streamers NOT in theaters. Minimizing back end participation. There is also some reported cases where the reported budget is actually the all in cost for the streamer, so it also includes overhead from staff and executives that work on getting these films to the streamers. (Argyle Director Matthew Vaughn was very adamant that his film didn't cost 200M, yet we know Apple spent that much, so this would explain that discrepancy).
So basically, for a streamer you have to look at ALL of the content they make or licenses in a given year as a SPEND. If Prime is bringing in $40 Billion from subscribers annually, and of that they spend $5 Billion annually on content, then their financial model works. They bring in huge numbers every month, and the content spend's goal is not to directly represent more earned money, but to keep the churn of monthly subscribers flat or positive. That is all.
This is also why Apple is pivoting, they were spending like they had Netflix, Prime, or Disney subscriber numbers... they simply don't and probably never will. So for Apple that model doesn't work.
Summation:
For a streamer the financial investment is NOT the individual movie, but the streaming service itself. The content is a SPEND.
For a traditional studio the financial investment is the individual movie.
That is why there is a different financial context to a streaming first movie, it is about purpose of spend and where the actual financial investment is being considered.
Yes, I know all of that and I’ve covered much of that on the channel. However, I still think a $250 million investment in one project is something that we’re going to see less and less of. Streaming has used the “draw subs, stop churn” justification to spend recklessly for years, but there’s no indication that this is an effective long term strategy. Even streamers that are entering profitability are cutting back because they are paying down massive debts to get to that point. Even as part of a larger budget, $250 million is a lot of ‘spend’ in one go.