What happens if China invades Taiwan?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ก.พ. 2022
- The next invasion?
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What happens if China invades Taiwan? Here’s how the start of World War 3 might go down.
For this video I leaned on some excellent interviews and research form:
Oriana Skylar Mastro: fsi.stanford.edu/people/orian...
Michael O’Hanlon: www.brookings.edu/experts/mic...
Also, Reuters did a similar speculative piece using some really compelling visuals: www.reuters.com/investigates/...
Ian Easton’s research using PLA internal documents was a strong foundation for my reporting on this: project2049.net/wp-content/up...
Excellent data gathering and analysis by Gerald C. Brown at FPRI: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
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Johnny Harris is a filmmaker and journalist. He currently is based in Washington, DC, reporting on interesting trends and stories domestically and around the globe. Johnny's visual style blends motion graphics with cinematic videography to create content that explains complex issues in relatable ways. He holds a BA in international relations from Brigham Young University and an MA in international peace and conflict resolution from American University.
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The USA is always a trouble maker rubbish
Hi Johnny, big fan of your work here from South Africa, Ive just gone back to this video and compared it to whats happening over the last week in this region,VERY INTRIGUING! PLEASE do a follow up video on this with your speculation and also do something regarding the monetary system and BRICS. Here is a vid from an Islamic eschatologist assumptions from more than 10 years ago th-cam.com/video/uNnIC6dkpoI/w-d-xo.html . Look forward to your content! Thanks
Maybe you could update the development of this video as time goes by. One thing people may underestimate the inevitability of the war. The nationalism of China rises every day. If you have a chance to view the news and reaction of people in China, you may raise the odds of war probabilities. The politics and nationalism distorts the rational thought process.
th-cam.com/video/CM6HwH9FxQk/w-d-xo.html
USA citizens are already vacating Taiwan, it can very easily predict that USA and west would very conveniently abandon Taiwan before 2025-27.
You can bet the Chinese government is gauging the worlds reaction and response to the Ukrainian crisis as we watch this video. Thanks for another informative and interesting video Johnny.
Appeasement all over again
there is nothing even remotely similar between taiwan and Ukraine
I dont think xi is as stupid as putin
@@xb2856 Hope he is.
Putin is bold not stupid
It's worth mentioning that Taiwan houses the majority of the world's semiconductor fabrication. If you thought COVID disrupted the supply chain, you haven't seen anything yet.
I was thinking the same thing!! I bet large corporations would pressure the US Govt to assist Taiwan to protect their businesses. IE: Intel.
yep this
What are those used for??
@@MortalWombat22 chips. everything from smartphones, game consoles, TVs, graphics cards, processors (CPUs), even a fridge uses a microchip. Basically almost anything electronic
China is also a big manufacturing country. I bet all countries will be affected if the supply chain is disrupted.
As a veteran, all I can really say is nobody should want a war. If you don't know what it's like to take a life, be happy. You don't want that guilt on your shoulders for the rest of your life.
So you don't mind not defending your family when they are threatened? There will come a time when even pacifists will take up arms.
@@Mr2tails its joke that the US cares about other countries, you guys don't even care your own people, you have millions homeless people in the street
I'd really appreciate a list of your videos in the order you produced them. I'm seeing two-year-old videos and then one that's a year old. I'll just watch whatever I see until I see that you've done that. Thanks Johnny.
Russia attacking Ukraine is making me worry as a Taiwanese that China might try the same thing depending on the outcome of how NATO reacts to the attack.
Nato cant do anything because ukraine is not part of it. Nato is a defensive organisation which means if any member is attacked then its an attack on all members. Ukraine unfortunately is not part of it so we cannot get involved however if Russia tries anything with the baltic states then we will get involved as the baltic states are part of the organisation. I do hope Taiwan get protection either from japan usa or india…
No doubt you guys are next.
Pakistan took out Pro US Afghanistan 2021
Russia Pro US Ukraine 2022
China Pro US Taiwan 2023
Iran Pro US Israel 2024
These countries are like an Anti-US gang.
@@supramonstaglock5962 Where did you learn this ? Fox news ? Do some more research before saying stupid things.
The UN will send a strongly worded letter to China
@@jaymax9560 You forgot North Korea invading South Korean (pro US)
Fun fact: US Navy has more presence in the Black Sea, Med, and off the shores of China than we ever did near the oceans and seas of the Middle East. The Cold War never truly ended. It just went classified, and got less front page news.
also fun fact. US navy was retreating from black sea because of Russian threats a couple weeks ago.
@@bodigames usa now is seeming like an aging man whos out of his prime and its scary as its the only democratic superpower
The east Med is the sea of the Middle East...
USA lost significance in modern world
well oh shit it looks like cold war is back
One listen. Immediately subscribed. You are that good bro, kudos
Looking at this video now with the current situation is scary 😧
I know right!!
I really appreciate the disclaimer cautioning against romanticizing conflict.
Yeah as an Indian I have often caught myself romanticising foreign and historical conflicts, but when I think of the ongoing conflicts (internal and external) in my own country it feels more like horror than fascination.
Glad he is pointing this out.
War is glorious. Its where boys become men and men become legends.
@@iamthe1234567890 ratio + get drafted
@@Ari-ne2yb yeah
Really appreciate? That’s because you are lamb in a world of lions. Your delicate sensibilities will not be an asset in the future.
"We live in a different era"
This is a very scary thought as someone who grown up through an era of peace thinking that it will last forever.
This may suprise you but despite the conflict going on in Ukraine, this era is one of the most peaceful time in human history, for example 19th century saw far more chaotic warfare, most notably Napolenic wars, Franco-Prussian war, American civil war, Taiping rebellion and much more.
So yeah, in comparison to other centuries in human history this is relatively peaceful.
“History repeats itself. First as a tragedy, second ad farce”
Peace in the west, western instigated war everywhere else. One of the main reasons Putin has the confidence to attack a Ukraine is because the US and NATO have been doing it over and over again in the past decades, the only difference now is that it is so close to home, with blonde haired blue eyed refugees. These are the chickens of imperialist interventionism coming home to roost.
@@Wabu_227 unless you live in middle east or central africa...or cartel mexico...
@@ongeri Youre telling us ukrainians are white? GTFO
Now you can assume the title "What happens if US invades Texas?"
Taiwan and china are diffrent
点了，兄弟
@@user-yc9zu8he8x we dont understand ur language
@@prateeksharma6706Mainland China is part of the Republic of China!
@@prateeksharma6706tell the commies in the PRC to standby for the liberation of Mainland China by the democratic Republic of China!
Johnny, Joshua here...I write books about Taiwan and was living there in the summer of 1995 (and well after). I liked your analysis. It was both well thought out and humble in that you saw clearly the point in which speculation ceases to be productive. Thanks for making this. JSB.
1995? That was just before China "invaded" wasn't it? Wasn't that the headline, China about to invade? Keep then scared so they behave! (White terror, was that the mainland wouldn't it?) It was just 29 years ago and people are still frightened!
Taiwan is just a place name, which is very important. It is not a country.
Please read UN resolution2758. Taiwan is part of China
@@muyi3380yes it is.
@@deputyschrute4504keep dreaming.
"War always escalates"
Very important to keep in mind.
Funny.
No surprise to anyone who has read Clausewitz.
@So Sexy i'm Sexy read the f'kin room here.
@@sandhanitizer15 it’s a bot lmao, how do you not know this?
@@sandhanitizer15 it’s kinda funny lmao
Throughout my time living in Japan the spectre of an invasion of Taiwan has lingered over daily news here - particularly after Xi came to power. On the one hand, east Asia feels remarkably peaceful and safe, and then suddenly North Korea fires a missile over the Pacific, a hawkish Chinese commentator declares it’s time to take Taiwan by force or a disputed island gets surrounded by Japanese and a Chinese naval vessels. Watching Ukraine unfold with horror made me realise not to take this relatively peaceful time for granted in East Asia, as it could all go horribly wrong incredibly fast.
(Great video as always mate. The ominous soundtrack alone made me cower in fear).
Damn, that must be scary dude
As a Russian person I took the peaceful time for granted
Peace is based on what China wants.
Anything can happen so unexpectedly, what matters is what we have close to us.
time to run back to the UK mr Broad
Legally speaking, the Chinese Civil War haven't ended yet. It has lasted for decades, since 1946, when the KMT suddenly attacked CPC controlled area disregarding the fact that Mao and Chiang had signed a treaty called "Double Ten Agreement". The agreement expressed the idea that KMT and CPC would unite together and set up a new state. After KMT attacked Shandong and Shaanxi, both under CPC controll, CPC decided to attack KMT to liberate the whole country.
People under the reign of KMT had been suffering for decades, so they welcomed the PLA warmly. The KMT, due to failure in the mainland, had to escape to Taiwan with the illusion that they could counterattack on the mainland.
Though both the people under CPC and KMT reign agreed that they are Chinese, the current government of Taiwan are deleting ancient literature from the textbook, making old Taiwanese upset."When I close my eyes, I can see the beuatiful scenes of Dongting Lake, thinking of Fan Zhongyan's article. Only when I step onto the land of Wuhan, of Xi'an, of Beijing, I can feel the vastness of Dongting Lake, the majesty of the Terracotta Army, and the magnificence of the Forbidden City." This is what a Taiwanese told me.
Taiwan is politically "independent" from PRC, but nationally closely connected with Chinese nation.
That is why the CPC is not trying to "invade" Taiwan, instead liberating them.
The history part is correct.
But the new generation in Taiwan treasures their democracy. They were born and grew up in Taiwan, not China.
They are biologically Chinese and identify themselves as Taiwanese. (kind of like Chinese-American or Chinese-Malaysian )
More and more people are preparing to fight against the invasion. They are schools （like black bear academia ) that teach people how to assist soldiers and protect themselves in battle, even teach them how to use guns.
@@kuocamilla3004 Bro are you Chinese? (Or the so-called “Taiwanese”)
yes,you are right
@@yiranliu-xo2hf I am Taiwanese and living in Taiwan .🇹🇼
@@kuocamilla3004 Taiwan is just a place name, not a country. You have to understand this.
Your videos are truly amazing. The production value is top notch, it really feels like a documentary. You’re seriously one of the best and interesting TH-camrs out there.
Do Your own research rather than listening this bullshits
Johnny Harris and his team really knows how to make entertaining, highly stylized documentary videos in their own distinct way
HEAR HEAR
very kind words :)
thank you!
Make video What hapend if India invade Bangladesh?
@@chemicalreactionbd9568 you mean Pakistan.
They are really well made documentaries, but I'm hesitant when it comes to these international topics.
Everything I know about China has come from Westerners like this guy, I would take all of this with a huge grain of salt.
Great video Johnny!
Hopefully a China invasion of Taiwan will remain a "what if" instead of "when".
Hopefully, I am against war and I certainly wouldn't want one happening so close at home.
Well sadly it's always 'when' 😟
Make video What hapend if India invade Bangladesh?
Unfortunately, it remains a “what If”only if the ruling party of Taiwan decides to make a change of its confrontational attitude towards China, which won’t happen because of politics.
@@chemicalreactionbd9568 What will India get out of declaring war on Bangladesh? Others than less dependency on the chicken neck and more radical s?
My favorite parts are when you stepped back and reanalyzed your thoughts. There are clearly so many solutions other than war.
Learn more about the Taiwanese perspective on this matter:
th-cam.com/video/XbobiiglwD4/w-d-xo.html
Very good and informative video Johnny. Keep up the good work
I have a new video coming soon explaining the Russian invasion into Ukraine now that it's happening. Stay tuned and subscribe to get notified when it comes out. Also if you live in Ukraine I really want to include your voice in my upcoming video. I'm collecting accounts of what people are seeing and feeling. Go to my instagram and send me a video instagram.com/johnny.harris/
Make a video about Israeli occupation of Palestine
@@mercm2691 He has done one video about it but it was several years ago and on Vox
No
Ukraine is WAY more important right now
Your channel is propaganda
i’m not trying to downplay the severity of this situation but i have to say... the production value of your videos is off the charts. the effort is definitely appreciated. great work man.
I have a small issue with how many times we saw him look at pictures and do faces. I mean cmon, what is this?
@@PK.Skerzos I mean I think those scenes are a bit too much too but you can’t deny that the quality of the production is insanely good for a youtube video and it’s a gift to us tbh
@@PK.Skerzos I have to agree. The amount of times where it's just shots of his bewilderment at some image on a screen is worthy of an Illuminati documentary.
But I'm a fan - and I'm all for artists and journalists trying out new stuff. Just don't particularly like this as it takes away from the seriousness for me.
Having a high production has got nothing to do with being authentic. This is a propaganda piece that has got almost every information incorrectly.
@@mm-wn8vm what’s correct then?
Your content is spot on , keep up the good work I support your videos 100 percent . I am a disabled vet and find it refreshing when someone does their homework . I love this and all your vids really.
search on ur trusted google and it tells u Taiwan isn’t an independent country
My favorite quote on this topic:
"War never determines who's right, only who's left."
Food for thought.
WWII really made you doubt who was "right?" You're unsure about how to feel about Nazi Germany? How about ISIS and al-Qaeda? Huh.
They say history is written by the winners. I doubt the winners would say "we were wrong."
I also like Jocko's analogy: "Going into a war and saying that you're only going to kill the bad guys, not accidentally hitting any civilians, no collateral damage... is like saying you're going to be a boxer and never in your career be hit. It's just not going to happen that way."
War and technology
Hand in hand
It's how we advance
Bertrand Russell
Watching this made me deeply realize how fragile the tension is and how fast it could escalate. Definitely a huge eye opener for someone to be actively engaged with the current situations.
no one in us.
CHINA 🇨🇳!!! NUMBAH ONE!!! HAHA TRICK YOU AMERICA!!! Taiwan berong to China! 🇨🇳 TRICK YOU TWO TIME HAHA AMERICA
Yeah its tense over there. I have seen many interviews of Taiwanese people saying that they go about their life without thinking about it. Though I am sure its always in the back of your head so to speak. This is all before Putin decided to show the resemblance between him and other tyrants from history.
With such fragile tension, Tsai Ingwen still decided to poke the bear. Tells alot about the Dpp. I really hope Taiwanese don't pay the price for this clown's actions.
The funny thing is that many people don't know that Taiwan's constitution also recognizes one China. Considers mainland China a part of China and has been planning to counter Beijing and unify China since before 1949. If you look at the maps published by the US half a century ago, Taiwan and south China Sea are all Chinese. Before World War I there were only a few dozen countries in the world. Now there are about 200 countries in the world. Has anyone ever wondered why? In Taiwan, people over 40 yrs old consider themselves Chinese and most want to reunify China, while people under 20 do not consider themselves Chinese and do not think Taiwan has a relationship with China. Has anyone ever wondered why? Countries all over the world recognize the One-China principle and do not consider Taiwan as a country. Taiwan is originally a part of China, and the civil war between Taiwan and the mainland is China's internal affair. If a war breaks out, it is not an invasion.Is a civil war.
very informative. Thank you
Anyone knows where I can find the original soundtracks used in this video?
"In the nuclear world. The true enemy is war itself." From the film Crimson Tide.
Make video What hapend if India invade Bangladesh?
@@chemicalreactionbd9568
then ,India going to bankrupt
@@chemicalreactionbd9568 that will never happen, there's no reason to. Though something to do with Pakistan is more likely
@@duckpotat9818 yeh yeh.... I know... If india think this they lost their chicken neack Napal to Bangladesh and also lost the Assam
Dictators are the true enemies.
“War always escalates”
A very important thing to keep in mind
You're everywhere
Does it? Sounds more like a survivorship bias.
Wars that don't escalate stay very small and fizzle out and written, at best, as footnotes in history books. The result being people only recall the ones that escalated, and hence make that wrong conclusion.
The funny thing is that many people don't know that Taiwan's constitution also recognizes one China. Considers mainland China a part of China and has been planning to counter Beijing and unify China since before 1949. If you look at the maps published by the US half a century ago, Taiwan and south China Sea are all Chinese. Before World War I there were only a few dozen countries in the world. Now there are about 200 countries in the world. Has anyone ever wondered why? In Taiwan, people over 40 yrs old consider themselves Chinese and most want to reunify China, while people under 20 do not consider themselves Chinese and do not think Taiwan has a relationship with China. Has anyone ever wondered why? Countries all over the world recognize the One-China principle and do not consider Taiwan as a country. Taiwan is originally a part of China, and the civil war between Taiwan and the mainland is China's internal affair. If a war breaks out, it is not an invasion.Is a civil war. China wants peace. But the US wants to use Taiwan to split China, the US doesn't want to see any strong independent country, the US wants all countries to be small and weak and obedient to the US.
What about the fact that no official ceasefire was reached and that Taiwan considers mainland China as part of its own version of China?
trivia: CPC and KMT never signed a truce after the breaking out of their civil war.
Correct.
A friend at the German military explained to me once that the constant probing of Taiwanese air space is not just posturing and not just to cover up a real attack until it's too late. It's also about provoking a response from the Taiwanese military, both to gather intel about it and tire it out.
well, you need to search what is ADIZ...
Also its to test a response time, if you think about it. You wanna now how long it takes for the enemy to response if you try to attack them
Time to ask Why they need to test + gather data on those response times.
Because if Taiwan strike first then China can say we were defending ourselves.
@@klau88873 bc they want to start a war in the future and to intimidate bc they think they will just surrender bc they dont want to be bombed
Absolutely exceptional piece. Well done man
lol
China doesn’t want to invade Taiwan. That’s a last resort. The Chinese leadership prefers to resolve the political Issues through peaceful means. One can be cynical is all it consumes are western news
@@levelazn proof ?
@@levelazn lol
The briefing is not exaggerated, but factual and precise. th-cam.com/video/BfKF7VRnLos/w-d-xo.html
Hey I was on the Canadian ship that sailed through the Taiwan Strait, if you have any questions go ahead
2 things that are weird about this all.
1. That USA would have the interest to defend Taiwan, even back then in the 90s. Now it’s due to the semiconductors. But not back then
2. That China are willing to risk a potential WWIII just to have that island.
I can’t understand how a piece of land is so important that you’re willing to risk the life of thousands civilians just to have it.
Yes Taiwan has the semiconductors. But China has always wanted to invade Taiwan and connect it to the mainland, even before Taiwan got the semiconductors. Also, Taiwan doesn’t really have any natural resources so it wouldn’t gain China that much to invade it in that perspective.
1. In the early 20th century, a group of people were dedicated to building a new, unified China on the ruins of the Qing Dynasty (~1911).
2. In later years, this group was divided into the Soviet-backed Chinese Communist Party (CCP/CPC) (which won the Chinese Civil War and founded the new China in the mainland), and the US-backed Kuomintang (KMT) (which lost the Chinese Civil War and retreated to Taiwan).
3. So both the governing party in mainland China and Taiwan have their duty to unify the whole of China till now - for the CCP is to take back Taiwan, and for the KMT or DPP (Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan) is to take back mainland China.
4. The Chinese Civil War mentioned in 2, there are no armistice has been signed so far. It means, no matter which side launches the attack, it's legally a Chinese civil war.
Hope the above information (from Wikipedia) will help you figure out the points you find weird.
It is essential simply because nuclear submarines will have a hideout place if they take Taiwan. That would allow China to threaten the US West Coast, especially California. The Taiwan Straights are only 300 meters deep. It is not enough for any submarine to hide for extended periods. On the other hand, the East side of Taiwan is the Pacific Ocean, with depths of 5000 to 6000 meters, allowing Chinese nuclear submarines to hide. Since the implementation of MAD, each nuclear power has tried to either move launch sites closer to the opponents (CUBA and MGM-31 Pershing deployment near the USSR border were two of the well-known examples), and China has been trying to do that by taking over South China Sea and Taiwan.
TSMC is a foreign company. If China were to reunify Taiwan, it would protect foreign assets. Therefore, TSMC is just a facade instilled by Taiwan to its people. The focus is on the island chain consisting of the Japanese archipelago, Taiwan, and the Philippines, all of which host US military presence. China's steel prices, oil prices, and grain prices could easily skyrocket due to US blockade, which leaves China feeling very insecure. If Taiwan forever prohibits foreign forces from stationing and intervening, China doesn't necessarily need to unify Taiwan
He is absolutely right when he says that we have been in an unusually long period of relative peace in the world. The default in human history has been war and brutality. Those things go in cycles. And human nature has not changed.
No we haven’t, there’s always conflict going on in the world. It’s just that it doesn’t receive as much coverage as when “The West” is involved.
Peace? LOL. How ignorant.
The OP said relative peace.
@@raymonds7492 that’s not true either. There has been NO peace. The only reason you would say there’s been “relative peace” is because there has been no coverage on the unrest. A lot has happened between WWII and the Ukrainian and Russian War.
@@WillieFungo relative peace. Keyword relative. Go google some death-tolls for wars of the past. And I’m sure you won’t like to hear this but the relative peace we have all enjoyed is a result of Americas naval presence throughout the worlds oceans that has made it more beneficial for countries to trade rather than fight one another
Never in the history of human beings has war been so visually available. Any war from this point forward is going to have a lasting, significant impact on humanity.
Me and my nephew was actually just talking about this yesterday,like you seen little bit with afghan but not literal live video like you are seeing coming out of Ukraine and now with tech it's literally letting people see what war really is not just after math still pictures. I feel like it will make a difference about people going and wanting to go to war after this and will Change alot of stuff going forward....
I was just talking about this with my daughter and friends the other day. War is live streamed now in real time.
Okay, during the two world wars war definitely was more present when today and actually there were thousands of wars in human history. Just the last 50 years were quite peaceful for western world and it's really sad that our peace seems to be in big danger now!
@@thetravelingguy2954 They aren't talking about the prevalence of war, but the fact that today you can actually see what's happening around the world, not only now but for years to come since things can be recorded.
After all we are in the end times read Matthew 24:6
An amazing video, especially considering you are not Chinese. However, there are still tiny errors - firstly, at around 11:20 of this video, what the video shows is a launch rocket(whose name is Chang Zheng) rather than a ballistic missile. Secondly, when talking about the first strike from China, you put too much weights on Chinese air force. PLAAF is essentially a defensive air force which means they concentrate more on air-to-air battle than on air-to-surface. The role of jets in this video should be replaced by Chinese artillery, who is the secondary force against Taiwan's ground millitary targets (the main force is PLA Rocket Army, for which you are correct).
he's not considering he's chinese but he's still.considering he's america, that's pathetic
Thank you for your thoroughly researched quality videos on history, current events, and geography. I am learning so much from your videos, which I perceive to be a trusted news source.
Damn I'm kinda tired of living my best years through these historic events.
How do these events impact your best years directly
Its just getting started bro. We are like in 1930 in a different color and taste. Remember that US marines have crayons and shit
really fucking eventful isn't it, especially if you have the honor to be the protagonist
@@JVLnetwork through stress and uncertainty- which triggers anxiety.
@@vividvulpe9842 do you live in Taiwan, Russia, Ukraine, yemen, or Russia? Because if not there’s no stress. You may act like it’s impacting you but it’s not. Life in the civilized world is so comfortable people will seek trauma that doesn’t even apply to them.
Hopefully this doesn’t happen, we need peace in this world. Thank you for this video.
You're naive. Stay in your home
@@jonathanwildemann3403 please elaborate
Great, another coward looking for support from other weaklings
@@slickimz223 what do you mean? All I want is peace, there is nothing wrong with being a pacifist. No one should support war until last resort.
Let's hope that is the case, but time and time again, saturations or sequence of events push countries into war that no body wants in the first place. It's tragic, but it had happened, and most likely will again.
Excellent work!
Interesting video.. I love analysis and theoretical videos.
So, now what is the fallout for China economically and geopolitically if they carried this scenario out? That would make a fascinating follow up video on this topic 👍
People forget that the enormous amount of peace in the last hundred years is an anomaly. For most of human history, war was much more common.
Very true.
And it's the US' new world order that resulted in this Pax Romana.
Because for the last 100 years there has been a military superpower that has been superior to any other. That superiority is waning.
Because we peaked military advancement after WW2
This guy went from "Russia won't invade Ukraine" to "China invades Taiwan" in a week
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Gotta get those view count
He will be wrong on both. 😂 😂 😂
misdirection tactic from insider info? who knows 😁
@@meocean5499 ,, of course,, he will get it wrong. .. the title are all click bait, ,, the content is the meat . and it's impossible to cover all possibilities and scenario's .
@1:19 time what is the music name ?
10:20 he's showing it to us like definitely we can read it ourselves 😂😂😂
This is a terrifying reality that's most likely coming
Yeah, and It scares the shit out of me
It was either Ukraine or Taiwan, apparently Joe Biden made his choice of giving up on Ukraine for Taiwan where the greater interests are. Even though it’s a fact that the most powerful military force is US navy, the only one who could beat US navy up is US airforce, Juggling two wars against the second and the third military presences in the world at the same time would be a mission impossible for the states.
@@chenx4528 Nope it was Ukraine and Taiwan. If China saw Russia's Ukraine invasion be met by stiff resistance from the west in the form of military aid and boots and the ground, they would think twice before poking the American Giant. However, if Ukraine falls, China will rightfully assume that the American Giant is asleep and will not hesitate to take Taiwan by force. Ukraine is no less important than Taiwan for it is the door between Russia and Nato. Taiwan obviously is in a good strategic location and makes semiconductors. By abandoning Ukraine, the US will incentivise China to attack. Sanctions are never going to deter China if they are useless in Russia, a much poorer country. The US military ain't gonna help Taiwan. They will sit idly by while Biden tries appeasement again.
not really. most likely, America and China get to a deal, that China takes back Taiwan and Taiwan will be just like a state in the US that can have its own election and industry, China will not set military bases in Taiwan and Taiwan is not allowed to have army. As long as America is powerful, that deal can be effective.
speaking about peaceful china and taiwan both are Chinese, and speaking about humanity why recently US and allies making high tension everywhere ? doing that becouse US is big military country or US just need entertainment ? or maybe making Taiwan as pawn like Ukraine so if plan get suceed then US will get bonus new strategic allies ?
Let’s keep in mind, Taiwan makes most of the best chips that the world uses. Your computer or phone you are using has one of those chips, american military vehicle systems, missile systems and all other important things. Taiwan is pretty important.
Edit: this comment is just highlighting a fact not pointed out in the video. I’m not saying that they are the only thing Taiwan is good for nor am I saying I don’t care about the Taiwanese. It’s purely a fact I wanted to share as it’s yet another reason why it’d be beneficial for countries to save the lives of the Taiwanese if an invasion would occur. Frankly, it’s disappointing I have to clarify this. No faith at all.
TSMC has almost completed two of the worlds largest Semiconductor Fabs. in the world located in Phoenix Arizona easy to look up. USA has ensured they will have all the 6nm or smaller semiconductors they will ever need!
A few years ago one of their factories was damaged in a natural disaster and the price of memory chips skyrocketed for several months.
Taiwan was important, America government forced taiwan to establish factory in US. and force taiwan to share its data with us government. today Taiwan is not so important.
@@gravestheoutlaw3632 nah
@@gravestheoutlaw3632 the fabs aren't done, besides, most of their infrastructure is still in Taiwan
This 21-minute video explained more than my teacher could in 10 weeks lol. :)
1:21 background music name please?
I'm a Security student and have been prototyping war games for this scenario for a few months now.
This is incredibly well researched and confirmed a lot of what I've found in research and given me new angles and information to consider. Thank you, sincerely.
I've been to Taiwan, one day I hope I get the opportunity to live there. It's a beautiful island with a vibrant and friendly Chinese and Aboriginal culture. I've never felt more at home and safe in my life than on the island.
I don't want war and I hope that cooler heads will prevail, but we will all have to wait and see.
I'd like to be the first one to try
You mean you are a war mongering American hawk or shall I say Hack! You think Americans bombing killing and invading other countries is ok... since only non whites get killed by the thousands... you people are SICK.
What
@@hclau362 wtf are you talking about?
@@oldarthurmorgan6319 I know what he meant. You all would be surprised how much people been killed by US wars. It exceeded the mongols.
what is this soundtrack at 1:20?
Song at 1:22 ??
Let’s take a moment to appreciate Johnny Harris and his hard work, especially during times like these. Bravo Sir 🙏🏽
Why didn't you just search taiwan AIDZ zone in google？ And you will find what he said in this video is totally wrong
@@baike007 because you're chinese
@@baike007 wumao moment
“奴隶制、殖民主义和殖民主义”都是作恶者所做的恶事。
盎格鲁西方/基督教欧洲人是几个世纪之久的全球主要参与者和捐助者，
- 奴隶制，
- 殖民主义，
- 从北美/南美到澳大利亚/新西兰再到西伯利亚/远东亚洲，直到今天。 🤔
对于上帝的诚实真理，请阅读“中美紧张局势：仔细观察‘五眼’情报伙伴关系/CGTN”中提供的多页“Ole Fella”评论（在 UTube 上）：youtu。是/H6nkAVegk0g
Bro you said peace time. What cave are you living in. Iraq, Afghanistan vs America for 20 years. Taliban won in the end after 20 years. So manyliveslost all sides. America won't help Taiwan. America is fake news. America will just abandon Taiwan like Iraq, Afghanistan and Ukraine.
It’s crazy what’s happening around the world atm, and that people really are going to war, hopefully everything resumes as it once was.
It’s always been this crazy
Nope its time for the 100 yr change .
You can't just wait and hope people have to take action
Make video What hapend if India invade Bangladesh?
Such is life. It’s always been this way. If anything, the world is much more peaceful than in comparison to what it once was.
One key point was missed. When there is a way at Taiwan strait the N. and S. Korea will certainly fight each other at the 38° boundary.
Hey Johnny Harris, with all the latest developments in BRICS, how do you think India might react now if China and Taiwan got into it? Just curious about your thoughts.
India has a strict No First Use or Strike First policy. Unless provoked outright, India won't attack but it will certainly quadruple up its alertness in the Himalayan region and defend it with their lives. This much is guaranteed.
I love the foreign policy of India, minus its relation with its neighbors.
@@stewie__69 our neighbors are hostile towards us for some reason lol Nepal Lanka China Pakistan Myanmar like wtf we did bruh
@@stewie__69 Open wiki and check every wars India has fought till date and find me one where India has started or provoked first. What is it that you do not like about India's foreign policy? Is it wrong to defend ones sovreignity and self respect?
@@VikramHalderkonVict what about bullying Bangladesh and Nepal all the time? You want reference? Search Tista water crisis. And sri lanka hates the tamils not all of india.india is not like china .their a lot of ethnicities combined.for example a bengali from india is not that much harassed by sri lankans.
@@shakilasharmin935 The way this is worded sounds like Sri Lanka bullying Tamils doesn't matter much cuz they're just... Tamils after all. Tamils are Indians too and the union Government is so pathetic and slow to react to any Sri Lankan aggression against Tamils, which only pushes Tamils to be want to secede.
Who is the country that participated in countless wars in the 21st century in Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria?, Who is the country that bypasses the trial of the UN Security Council and ignores the international order? Millions of people have died or been injured, millions of refugees have been caused, and who is the country that has brought disaster to the world?, Who are the countries that do not abide by their commitments and extend NATO eastward, leading to the conflict between Russia and NATO? Oh, it must be China. Evil China has led to world chaos. Yes, that's what you want to say
Exactly bro.
This video is garbage. Taiwan will most likely be integrated diplomatically and if it cones to fighting China wont firebomb the whole country like genocidal ass America but will take it with minimal civilian casualties
True dat
snarky. at least the country youre referring to isnt a fascist totalitarian dictatorship
Jonny highlighting Chinese characters on paper was hilarious.
There's a bit problem in 10:30 , although it's both "得" in Chinese, it actually means "may" rather than "shall , which can be recognize by it's pronounciation "de" and "dei". Hence, the law is actually giving the government the legality to do such thing.
What’s gonna happen is:
China: we are sending troops to Taiwan
Taiwan: come and help me, US
US: we condemn China for invading Taiwan, god bless Taiwan
…….
Taiwan makes a large portion of the microchips within western technology and products. Taiwan is actually vital for the west, unlike ukraine.
@@Enry-9624 funny to now that US is forcing tsmc to invest in the US. And it is building semiconductor factories in the US right now!
@@JR-vc4gm TSM dip….
Because Taiwan isn't part of NATO or an ally of the US. If US help Taiwan, it's a declaration of war against China, then that's where you have a big war between two big country. So no thanks.
Every other world leader: Sanctions?
West will first say... "You have our support" and when situation escalates "You have our prayers"!
It's better to say west always forgets that it destroyed so many countries did they forget all of their wars , or the western wars aren't dangerous and don't threaten the global peace
@@aymanayman9000 What fucking wars? The US doesn't invade for petty land claims or sectarian agendas.
@@SHVRWK Vietnam War. Iraq War, Libyan War , War on “Terror”, what planet are you living in?
@@SHVRWK don't you know about the American wars we can start by what southern america or Vietnam or Cambodia which by the way was bombed more than Germany in WW2 or what about Somalia or Afghanistan which you entered it for the sake of getting revenge of Ben laden to stay for 20 years and left it with your weapons to the same authority, what about Iraq and all of the lies back then , or Granada which you condemned its own presedent as drug dealer that might be right but ironically enough your government at this time was dealing also in drugs smuggling it into america what about Korea ,or what about the first war in Vietnam since you know the USA fought in Vietnam twice , let alone all the support for Israel for example so you think Putin is Evel for attacking Ukraine but Israel has the right to attack ghaza alm of those times because of security ,and america can attack all those countries thousands of miles far away from it , let alone nuking Japan for the sake of using the bomb , do you know that the argument for using it for saving soldiers is what war crimes is all about, Keep in mind that wasn't even about revenge since at the beginning of WW2 they burned 25 square km of Tokyo using napalm , don't you ask yourself why when the white house speaks about the sovereignty of countries and how. Invading one country could lead to others wars no one of media ask them about their wars , I'm not Russian by the way Egyptian but it's to weird that no one remembers this wars right now
@@SHVRWK Sad you dont know shit about your country history, your country in war with other country for 95% of it history
What real country? Taiwan is part of Fujian.
copium
@@Sanguinnius
Don't eat too much curry. >90% Taiwanese are basically Fujian. Even their language is, today. Get educated.
Thank you for the dedication on explaining the story China and Taiwan with a high quality video and objectively presenting through the history.
Which must prepared much for this.
prepared what？ war？
@kizen-cg1wl to prepare to wutong Mainland China!
This is a nice way to take my mind off the Ukraine invasion for 20 minutes. Thanks.
Totally feel you man. Reading the Ukraine coverage is exhausting and anxious
Yah, thinking about the invasion of yet another country.... "nice."
Distract from a war with another war
Doesn't seem healthy
lol
@@Potz4pizza @ym j Exactly. I'm going crazy
This is a really good video but super stressful to watch as an Asian. Also, the Taiwanese are very warm and kind people so I hope this never happens.
Brain wash propaganda Taiwan and China war why Americans then fight there? Because it is a crap story and most sneaky nation on plante earth.
@@osloreal7042 Chinese bot detected.
It doesn't have to happen. Taiwan could reach out to negotiate a peaceful reincorporation. Absent that, it's going to happen at some point.
@@thesaddestdude3575 It's ture, your American is a really sneaky nation.
western bot 🙏🏻🙏🏻
Brilliant storytelling 👍👍👍
do anyone know if the music in 1:22 copyrighted or not ?
Scrolled way to far to find this and I still don’t know
@@cloud8ight unreal engine ?
i love how you highlighted the fact that conflict is not something good and is a nightmare ,so well said brother .
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
fact？are you sure?
th-cam.com/video/WtN6C9xfzFo/w-d-xo.html
th-cam.com/video/WtN6C9xfzFo/w-d-xo.html
As a person from former Yugoslavia, war in the beginning, if you fight for your motherland is exciting, but the longer it goes, the more exhausting it starts to be. So diplomacy seems to be a way better way, although it consumes more time, than a invasion
No one wants to live in China ruling. It is worst than Putin's Russia. Ukrainian won't. You got even less chance for Xi's China.
But When Commie is not talking abt the diplomacy ? CCP Need a hard lesson
@@MrK-js3it Dont worry about that as it stands now the CCP will fall hard, the countries coruption is already destroying the country. The chinese although I really love the people and the culture there have, because of communism, lost all their values. Religion is not allowed, everything is about the CCP and we all can see how the party behaves, so the people behave like that to. We all can see the many food scandals, the buildings that collaps etc. In Yugoslavia although not perfect, the people really liked it and the party first and foremost looked after the people, but China is a pool full of corruption. Im not a hardline communist, but if it is excecuted good, I believe in it. The Yugoslav wars didnt happen, because of coummism, but because of that that brewed in the meantime, the ultra nationalist movements since WW2. The chinese army is big, but it is riddled in corruption and wouldnt function good as a team, lets not talk about the equipment.
69 likes
@@XameleonTheGuy nice
Johnny, your disclaimer could’ve been wrapped up into three words, war is Hell! Seriously, actual Hell.
Damn, Johnny, you are GOOD. You are clear, evidence-based, and also compassionate and humanist. Thank you so much for all of your excellent work!
I am a Chinese person in the US. I think given the ferocity of Ukraine’s defense and similar mindset of the Taiwanese, China would be doubly careful. Imagine how easy it was to spot the build up of Russian troops on a super long Ukrainian border, imagine how obvious the build up will be on the Fujian coast. I think a Taiwan invasion is far less likely now because of Ukraine.
i agree my chiense brother
I think Ukraine's invasion give china perfect example how to invade taiwan.... Usa will keep itself at distance because of ww3 risk and sleepy biden will say something stupid again and given sanctions warning which can't be put on China properly because of their manufacturim and earth like lithium ...
Besides, the commies have yet to make their tanks swim 😂
I wish I were as optimistic as you. Russia has the economy of Texas, China has the economy of the US. China has also been supporting Russia in their invasion, which would be a logical move if they themselves wanted to invade Taiwan. I'm not saying it will happen for sure but I think Ukraine made it more, not less likely.
Supporting, as in through the media to be clear.
Technically Taiwan (Republic of China) and mainland (People's Republic of China) are still in war status. The Chinese civil war hasn't ended. There is no cease fire agreement since 1949, with one party on the mainland and the other on the island.
Very much so like North and South Korea.
@@bobreynolds4980 Yes, but after the Chinese Civil war, the REPUBLIC of China only had Taiwan island and some small islands, while North Korea 🇰🇵 and South Korea 🇰🇷 split the territory 50-50. There is no one side on the Korean peninsula and one side on Jeju Island
U.S. invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, can bloggers predict which country the U.S. will invade next? ?
@flisnoo shaboo mao wanted to invade Taiwan but was impeded by US navy, the war never officially ends in this sense
@flisnoo shaboo You need to learn more about the history. Republic of China was built in mainland in 1912, and its government fled to the island of Taiwan after losing Chinese civil war in 1949.
howd u make the map bro
Great video!
It definitely does feel like it's closer than ever that they'd do this. Especially with how they handled Hong Kong and most people just forgot after such a short time, and now Russia doing what they're doing, why not China do it too? Truly frightening...
Winnie the Pooh would never dare
@@bayareajokester9456 -69 social credit
The UN better prepare that strongly worded letter condemning China
Make video What hapend if India invade Bangladesh?
Because China is strong economically, unlike Russia. If China retake Taiwan by force, it will cost then a lot economically that will set them back to many years and also will take many many years and resources to fix Taiwan society.
China handled HK very well, no deaths. If anything I find it baffling that they allowed the HKers to throw riots, burn buildings, shops, looting, subway, blocking roads.
While for Russia, Russia economy sucks, Russia has been facing sanctions over sanctions and with US pushing Ukraine to join NATO, you are basically provoking Putin to make a move first.
Seeing current situation happening in Ukraine. As a Taiwanese. Even just read the title makes me uncomfortable and terrified. I hope we don’t have to face the war. Thank you for making this video Johnny.
@Watcher progressive? Progressive?! Get your head checked.
@Watcher Ah, a month old new account praising Xi. Figures.
Sad to say but China will invade,
@Watcher the pooh bear pay u to say that?
@@lkjqwemnbzhfuth i praise xi since i am chinese and im sorry to tell you this but taiwan would be destroyed before lunch break XD
This should be a problem between China and Taiwan, not China and the US
The time between two wars is called PEACE
There is an old saying that ‘no one does their best thinking standing on a rattlesnake’. Let’s hope that all parties think things through very, very carefully BEFORE taking actions which could have catastrophic consequences. As Johnny noted, once events begin, it is impossible to know where they will go.
Well said brother. As a Navy Veteran, i pray for peach and hope things does not escalate with China! And, i pray that the situation with Ukraine end sooner rather than later. As a Cambodian American, i pray and hope for peach around the world. War can never be the answer. GOB bless us all!!!
i don't want war to start nukes are scary and can end the world, i pray we don't go to war
I'll see y'all in fallout irl
You don't think when you stand on a rattlesnake, you do something, fast before it's too late.
@@sebastianliu2009 peach is fruit 🍑
You're a rare gem man, this is journalism, you and your team are informing the masses
15:10- I think the US Navy would be first to know and know as soon as weapons fell on Taiwanese soil. The Navy definitely has at least a Submarine keeping an eye on that situation at all times....And, if China jammed communications, our Navy would instantly put 2'n 2 together immediately.
That US military intro was FIRE
Johnny I'm gonna be honest I think you missed a HUGE part of this equation: the economic ramifications. We can argue about who would win in a military confrontation between the US and China until hell freezes over, but the economic ramifications for China if they chose to invade Taiwan tomorrow would be DISASTROUS. I'm talking full-scale collapse of their entire economy. The reason? China relies on international trade for its economy to function. It is a manufacturing hub that produces goods for the entire world. And guess who their biggest trading partner is: THE UNITED STATES! China has an enormous trade surplus with the United States (meaning we buy more from them then they do from us). If that line of trade evaporated overnight, it would absolutely decimate the Chinese economy. It would also have a huge negative impact on the United States, but certainly not to the same extent as China. The negative economic ramifications of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan alone are enough for China to table the idea for the foreseeable future. There are efforts underway in China to wean itself off of its trade reliance on the US, but that will be a slow and tedious process. You can't overlook these kinds of factors and simply skip to the military side of things when this is such a huge part of even the initial decision to retake Taiwan.
Edit: Said deficit instead of surplus
Nowadays, the war on economy is less destructive but just as damaging.
I agree but I want to point out a similar arguments were used before WW2 to argue war would never happen. Then again international trade is much bigger then it was in the 30's.
China isn't as cheap as they used to be a lot of that manufacturing is moving to other countries. Apple is investing heavily in Vietnam and they're not the only country in the region booming.
@@ethanstine426 International commerce is more intertwined than ever. We literally depend on eachother for the world to function properly. Just look at Covid and we've already seen the impact.
I’ve always wondered that. The world can cut ties with Russia but we’re intertwined with China
I am from Taiwan
Thank you for being so professional with your team for introducing Taiwan to China through the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and I hope that the war between Russia and Ukraine will end soon, and may there be peace in the world
There will never be peace in the world until the US forces retreat to its North American territories.
sorry for you but that war just doubled or tripled chances that china will invade formosa. now they are backing russia and buying their energy much cheaper than the rest of the world and soon russia will back china...
A true democracy in Taiwan would allow the people in Taiwan to vote for the future, including whether they want to reunite with PRC, change their official name from ROC to Taiwan, and whether they want to spend their people’s tax money buying outdated American weapons.
Hello Chinese province Taiwan
@@alexpug5162 hi west korean.
Please make a video on Canadian Housing Crises
As a Chinese, what I want to say is that China is weakening America's world hegemony through various means. In the Middle East and Ukraine. Taiwan is not an urgent issue to be solved. When China successfully rises and the United States is no longer strong, Taiwan will easily be placed in the right position.
Finally, your video is great and I have subscribed to you
What is the ‚right’ position?
China is collapsing in more ways than you can count, be it birth rate or economy. They have about 5 years to invade or they will never be able to, and China is simply not ready for a war against America. China’s rise ended 4 years ago.
But how long will China successful rise. Its rising slowly rn. Maybe in 25 years? 50years? Im asking because I want to live in China.
taiwan is a semiconductor hub so definitely large companies would pressure the USA to save it , and also fund the war
@@Li-lx5omwhen the Republic of China liberates Mainland China will it be truly successful.
As a Taiwanese, I am shivering watching this video.
I have never wanted to see a bloodshed on both sides of the strait.
I personally had lived in China for years.
And I actually quite like the place and people where I lived.
For me, Taiwanese and mainlanders are like brothers.
I think we both live just fine given the situation we are in now.
Why people just can’t let it be this way?
taiwan is better than china in every way. china wants to steal that.
@@rollingthunderinho and here's the answer why things are getting worse... ppl like you
it's the government mostly, not really the people as significantly
@@rollingthunderinho what a nuanced approach to complex relationships
@@cjaden The people support government 🤣
The scariest thing about Ukraine is the fact that if NATO, UN, and the US does not react, China will have no reason NOT to invade Taiwan.
That's not true, Ukraine was not part of NATO, hence NATO not intervening militarily in the Russian occupation. Taiwan on the other hand has been assured of its protection by the US, with Biden saying they will protect Taiwan. Therefore it would probably lead to a Nuclear war if China invaded Taiwan which is not going to happen with Russia as it invades Ukraine.
Chinas reasons for not invading Taiwan are the same reason zero persons were killed during the Hong Kong protest. That is. Escalating violence in reality doesn’t actually help to pacify and win over the population
@@levelazn lmao you really believe that nobody died in Hong Kong?
@@kanyirichege4352 How do the US protect Taiwan? By using their a$$es?
@@noahgreene7246 it’s reported by Hong Kong’s own media.
Your explanation is wonderful! But what I want to say is that China should not use the word "invasion" for the war in Taiwan. It should be that Taiwan belongs to China at any time in history, so it is more appropriate to use "retake"😅
Is war between countries not aggression? The Communist Party of China and its desire to unify the Republic of China by force are acts of aggression. In particular, the Communist Party of China is a foreign force and the act must be called an invasion.国与国的战争不是侵略？支那共匪国与要武统中华民国就是侵略。尤其支那共匪国是外势力，必须称为侵略。國與國的戰爭不是侵略？ 支那共匪國與要武統中華民國就是侵略。 尤其支那共匪國是外勢力，必須稱為侵略。國與國的戰爭不是侵略？ 支那共匪國與要武統中華民國就是侵略。 尤其支那共匪國是外勢力，必須稱為侵略。
this is total BS. at what point in time were Taiwan ever belongs to the communist China? even at the end of WWII, Japan renounced Taiwan, but didn't handover the sovereignty of Taiwan to China(San Francisco treaty).
according to Chinese logic, Britain can *retake* US. Spain can *retake* Brazil?
Lmao. “War is a nightmare” *proceeds to show animated cgi clips showcasing the coolness of us military with cool music* anything for that engagement huh?
Just so you know, the island of Okinawa (Japan) is in between mainland Japan and Taiwan has the most U.S. military stationed there.
I actually thought about that when he mentioned Guam, where is too far to help out Taiwan in the first place.
For all the shit America gets from us Europeans and others, democracy and the liberal international order would've long died if we Europeans were the ones upholding it by ourselves. Thank you, America.
Finally someone who tells the news the way it is... and NOT filtered for their audience
peter, this is not news. it's a prediction.
Its incredibly filtered mate
How is repeatedly saying “reunite” not filtered? He is repeating a false Chinese narrative. The fact is China has never had any control or legal claim to Taiwan. Yes they have strategic and egotistical reasons for claiming Taiwan, but there is no legal standing.
@@Kevin-kn6uq The people of Taiwan do not see the CCP as their leaders
literally the most biased piece of predictions ever created on the planet
When will America stop being the world's policeman?
Himars GMLRS has proven a very arcurate system from the cold war and with ranges that can hit ships in the straight or the mainland with ATACMs
As a foreigner residing in Taiwan, I can attest to the fact that Taiwan is such an evolved, resourceful country that no one wants it invaded with non-peaceful means. China is undoubtedly taking lessons from the Ukraine-Russian conflict and applying them to its relations with Taiwan. If there is a war, China's stakes are unquestionably higher than Russia's in the Ukraine conflict. InshaAllah, this conflicts will end in a peaceful manner.
Logically speaking I really wonder what would bring the most benefit?
Is Taiwan really the goal other than just in name? Or maybe it's more domestic distraction and a need for continued economic growth that could make a war itself profitable? China is rather self-sufficient if compared to Russia. So sanctions won't matter as much.
But also, China doesn't seem to have a delusional monocrat or proud nostalgics. In fact, there is no better time in recent history to be proud of China.
everyone's got a camera, the days of big countries invading little countries, without international condemnation, are at an end
@@zakuro8532 China has been mostly following this sort of strategic ambiguity understanding (between CN, US, and TW) on the Taiwan issue for a very long time. I think in recent years the issue escalated a bit, the direct reason being the way how DPP came to power and are operating things there (highly ideologically possessed, highly anti-Chinahints, and hinting at amending the ROC constitution). But the seed has been planted way back to Li Teng-Hui's times.
Right now it's actually sort of backfiring for China because left-leaning patriotic young people want to see Taiwan taken back (by force). But for the government, there is no direct benefit, or rather the benefits won't outweigh the costs, at least in the short term.
As for the Taiwan government, as long as they're not recklessly optimistic (like NATO and Zelenskiy, expanding right up against the face of Putin and just thinking that it's modern 21st century nobody is daring to start a war) and know that a red line actually exists, I don't see China actually mounting an attack on Taiwan. Unless the whole world already went into utter chaos and nobody cares anymore. Which, I hate to say it but, actually seems likely depending on how NATO reacts to the Ukraine situation.
That being said, if Ukraine doesn't survive this attack and the subsequent downfall of the US hegemony actually begins... For China It's gonna be either a quick and decisive battle, or a peaceful, long-term and multi-generational process of trying to bring the hearts of people on both sides of the strait back together, for a basis of reunion. The cultural ties are there, but people (on both sides) have been brainwashed ideologues for so long that unless we find a new common ground for conversations, some of the nominal "value differences" just make really huge gaps for mutual understanding.
@@zakuro8532 Growth does not come from destroying assets.
Comparing Taiwan to Ukraine is an insult to freedom and democracy.